AI Picks · 22 Bets · Aug 25
Will Warren u15.5 Outs (-125)
Warren has recorded 16, 12 and 12 outs over his last 3 starts, averaging 4.4 innings, and the underlying numbers say that is not bad luck — a 5.80 xERA, 58.5% hard-hit rate and 11.3% walk rate over that window. Houston's 69 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 is weak, but his own command is what has been ending these outings in the fourth and fifth, and New York's bullpen has already worked 5.0 innings over the past two days without shortening his leash in any of those starts. The line asks for a fifth inning completed, which he has managed once in three tries.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
Max Scherzer u3.5 Ks (+122)
Scherzer has a 14.5% K rate over his last 3 starts with 4, 4 and 1 strikeouts, averaging 3.0 per outing and 4.8 IP, and his last time out was 73 pitches over four innings. Kansas City makes contact at a 16.7% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 19.0% over their last 12, and they are swinging well at a 142 wRC+ over the last 6, which means traffic rather than quiet innings. His own outs line sits at 15.5 with the under juiced to -167 — the market expects fewer than five innings and roughly 19 or 20 batters, which at his current bat-missing rate is three strikeouts, yet the strikeout market is priced for four.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
KCR Team Total o3.5 (-128)
Kansas City is at a 142 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 games, up from 120 over its last 12, with a 40.5% hard-hit rate, and Scherzer has been scuffling — 7 ER in 4.0 innings last time out, a 6.38 ERA and 4.8 IP/gs across his last 3. That short outing puts the Royals into the Toronto bullpen by the fifth, and Kansas City has averaged 5.6 runs in its last 5 road games behind Lugo. Four runs against a starter working under five innings is a lower bar than this price sets.
Found at 4:29 PM ET
Zac Thornton u4.5 Ks (+130)
Thornton's 18.2% K rate and 17.6% whiff rate over his last 3 starts have produced 3, 2 and 7 strikeouts, an average of four across 5.3 innings per start. Milwaukee has cut its K rate to 20.4% vs LHP over the last 6 games from 24.4% over the last 12 while posting a 132 wRC+ against left-handers in that stretch, so this is a lineup both making more contact and doing more damage — the kind of afternoon that shortens an outing rather than lengthens it. Five strikeouts is above his recent average against a lineup trending away from whiffs, and the under is being paid +130 for the more likely result.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
Tyler Glasnow u15.5 Outs (-155)
Glasnow has not started in 111 days and his last time out was 19 pitches over a single inning, so this is a first outing back rather than a settled workload. Even at full strength he averaged 4.9 IP across his last 3 starts with a 13.2% walk rate, and Los Angeles has an elite bullpen behind him at 2.56 xERA over its last 12 games with only 3.0 relief innings used in the past two days. Paying this price buys a short number that requires him to get through five and a third in his first game back, which the pitch count from his last appearance argues strongly against.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
ATL Team Total u3.5 (-105)
Atlanta has a 61 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 games and 60 over their last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is established form rather than a slump, and it comes with a 25.4% K rate over the last 6. Glasnow's 2.31 xERA and 37.7% K rate over his last 3 starts front the game, and behind him the Dodgers hand off to a bullpen with a 2.56 xERA and 30.0% K rate over its last 12 with only 3.0 relief innings used in the past two days. Holding this lineup to three is being priced at even money despite an offense that has not produced league-average run scoring against right-handers in a month.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
Chris Bassitt u16.5 Outs (-110)
Bassitt has recorded 9, 16 and 17 outs in his last 3 starts, averaging 4.7 IP/gs behind a 5.25 xERA and a 9.4% walk rate, and he needed 95 pitches to get 17 outs last time. St. Louis makes him work — a 44.0% hard-hit rate vs right-handers over its last 6 games — and Baltimore has an elite bullpen at a 2.62 xERA over its last 12 with only 3.3 innings used in the past two days, giving no reason to stretch him. The line sits at the very top of his recent range rather than the middle.
Found at 4:29 PM ET
M. Liberatore o5.5 Ks (-113)
Liberatore has a 27.7 K% and 23.1 K-BB% over his last 3 starts with strikeout totals of 3, 6 and 9, trending up, and he went 6.0 innings on 100 pitches his last time out. Baltimore strikes out at a 26.9 rate vs LHP over their last 6 and 27.3 over their last 12 with a 27.9 Whiff% in the recent window — the same number in both windows, so it is their established profile, not a slump. Their bats have also collapsed to a 2 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6, which keeps traffic down and lets him work deep. A coin-flip price on a pitcher whose rate and this opponent's contact problems both point the same way is short.
Found at 7:03 PM ET
Gavin Williams u17.5 Outs (+123)
Williams has gone 17, 13 and 17 outs in his last 3 starts, needing 102, 91 and 96 pitches to get there, so he has to do something he has not done recently to clear this number. His 12.9% walk rate over those 3 starts is what inflates the pitch counts, and Cleveland has no reason to stretch him with a bullpen carrying a 2.58 xERA and 30.7% K rate over its last 12 and only 4.0 relief innings used in the past two days. His one previous trip to Angel Stadium lasted three innings, and the market is paying plus money on the side that his own recent box scores land on every time.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
Clay Holmes u3.5 Ks (-135)
Holmes has a 7.9% K rate and 13.1% Whiff% over his last 3 starts, striking out 1, 3 and 1 across those outings for an average of 1.7 per start. Arizona is the toughest lineup on the board to miss bats against, at a 14.0% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 15.5% over their last 12, so both windows agree they put the ball in play. Even the 16.5 outs the market gives him only buys about 22 batters, and at his current bat-missing rate that is a two-strikeout afternoon; the price is set as though his one 6-K meeting with Arizona in May is the norm rather than the outlier.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
Taj Bradley u17.5 Outs (-105)
Bradley has recorded 15, 12 and 15 outs in his last 3 starts, averaging 4.7 IP per outing, and the number posted here asks for nearly a full inning more than his deepest recent start. His 13.6% walk rate over those 3 starts is what has been running his pitch counts up — 97, 89 and 88 pitches for those short outings — and Minnesota has a rested bullpen at 3.0 relief innings over the past two days. Sacramento's park plays hot at a 109 factor in 94-degree air, and the market is pricing six innings from a starter who has not finished five and a third since July.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+114)
Kirby has struck out 2, 2 and 3 over his last 3 starts on a 10.9% K rate, and he has been getting shorter — 5.0, 4.2 and 3.1 innings, with six earned runs allowed in the most recent one. Philadelphia is the worst possible lineup for a bounce-back, at a 12.9% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 16.4% over their last 12 alongside a 140 wRC+, so the at-bats end in contact and the innings run long. Getting plus money on four strikeouts or fewer from a pitcher who has not reached four in any of his last three, against a lineup that barely strikes out, is the market pricing his reputation rather than his current stuff.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
Aaron Nola o5.5 Ks (-146)
Nola has struck out 8, 9 and 8 in his last 3 starts on a 35.2% K rate and 35.0% Whiff%, averaging 5.7 IP with a 7.0% walk rate, and those totals came against Toronto at 17% and Minnesota at 15% — lineups that strike out less than today's opponent. Seattle whiffs at 19.0% with a 22.7% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and is scuffling at an 80 wRC+ over that stretch, which keeps his pitch count workable. Paying this price buys a number two and a half strikeouts below what he has produced in each of his last three starts against tougher contact lineups.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
Gage Jump u5.5 Ks (+124)
Jump's 20.5% K rate over his last 3 starts has produced wildly uneven totals — 11, then 1, then 3 — and his 5.1 IP per start with a 12.3% walk rate leaves little room for volume. Minnesota is striking out at just 13.3% vs LHP over their last 6 games, down sharply from 19.4% over their last 12, so the bats he faces tonight are making contact at a well above-average clip. Six strikeouts from a pitcher averaging five against the lightest-whiffing version of this lineup is not an even-money outcome, and the under is being paid plus money for it.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
Michael King o17.5 Outs (-139)
King has gone 6.0, 6.0 and 6.2 innings over his last 3 starts — 18, 18 and 20 outs — behind a 2.76 xERA and a 5.6% walk rate, and all three of his recent home starts also ran a full six innings. Pittsburgh's 97 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 27.4% K rate is not the profile that runs a count up, and King has already gone six against them once this season. Paying this price buys a number he has cleared in every one of his last three outings, and the market is pricing six innings as barely more likely than not.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
Brandon Pfaadt o4.5 Ks (+120)
Pfaadt carries a 24.3% K rate and 27.8% whiff rate over his last 3 starts with a 2.9% walk rate and 6.6 IP/gs, and he struck out 7 and 8 in his two most recent outings. The Cubs strike out 22.6% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6 games and 21.8% over their last 12, so the whiffs are available, and his outs line at 17.5 gives him roughly six innings to need five. Plus money on a pitcher whose command lets him work deep and who has cleared this number in two of his last three is the wrong side of the ledger.
Found at 4:29 PM ET
PHI Team Total o3.5 (-136)
Philadelphia is at a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 122 over their last 12 with a 16.4 K% in the recent window — a lineup that both hits and refuses to give away outs, with 7 of 9 in today's order holding the platoon edge. Kirby has been battered for a 4.53 xERA and 8.78 ERA over his last 3 starts, allowing 8 and 9 hits in the last two while lasting 4.2 and 3.1 innings, and his 4.3 IP/gs hands the game to a Seattle bullpen carrying a 4.85 xERA and 9.14 ERA over its last 12 at elevated workload. Four runs from this offense against that sequence is the likely outcome, and the price is set as though it is an even proposition.
Found at 7:03 PM ET
SFG Team Total o3.5 (-120)
San Francisco is at a 127 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 games and 121 over its last 12 with a 49.2% hard-hit rate in the shorter window, and Brady Singer brings a 4.97 xERA, a 12.5% K rate and a 12.7% barrel rate over his last 3 starts — he has allowed 8, 8 and 5 hits in those outings while working six innings each time. With the wind blowing out 16 mph, contact he does not miss bats on carries. The number is priced as if Oracle Park suppresses a lineup that is squaring everything up against a pitcher who lets the ball be put in play.
Found at 4:29 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Payton Tolle o6.5 Ks (+122)
Tolle carries a 35.3% K rate and 27.3% Whiff% over his last 3 starts, averaging 8.0 strikeouts per outing with 14, 4 and 6 in those games, and he has worked 6.3 IP per start. Miami swings and misses plenty against left-handers, at a 26.3% Whiff% and 24.0% K rate vs LHP over their last 6, up from 21.7% over their last 12. His outs line at 17.5 has the over juiced to -153, so the market itself expects six innings and roughly 25 batters — at his rate that is seven strikeouts, and getting plus money on the seventh one is the mispricing.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
BOS Team Total o4.5 (+106)
Boston has a 167 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 13.5% K rate, and the longer window backs it at 138 over their last 12 — this is established form, not a three-game heater. Tyler Phillips has allowed a 47.1% hard-hit rate with a 4.67 xERA over his last 3 starts and has not gone past five and a third at home in any of them, which puts Boston into a Miami bullpen that has run a 4.71 ERA over its last 12 and threw 4.3 relief innings in the past two days. Boston has averaged 6.6 runs over their last 5 games behind this starter, and a number of five runs is priced at plus money against a starter who cannot get through the order a third time.
Found at 4:12 AM ET
Tyler Phillips u3.5 Ks (+104)
Phillips' 25.5% K rate over his last 3 starts was built against the Angels (29% K) and Pirates (27% K); Boston is the opposite profile at 16.4% vs RHP over their last 6 and 17.9% over their last 12, with a 16.6% whiff rate. His outs line at 14.5 tells you how short this is expected to run, and he has not thrown a competitive pitch in 12 days after 4 earned runs in 5.1 innings last time out. Four strikeouts inside roughly five innings against the lightest-whiffing lineup in the league is not an even-money outcome, and the under is priced at plus money.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
Jackson Jobe u15.5 Outs (-121)
Jobe has gone 5.0, 3.2 and 5.1 innings in his last 3 starts — 15, 11 and 16 outs — and his 3 starts at Comerica this season have produced a 7.98 ERA on 4.1 IP/gs, none of them past 15 outs. His 5.49 xERA and 8.2% walk rate over the last 3 have him running pitch counts up early, and Tampa Bay reaches base enough vs right-handers to keep that pattern going. The number sits right at the ceiling of his recent workload rather than the middle of it.
Found at 4:29 PM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
BOS @ 
MIA✓6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
BOS @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Payton Tolle L
xERA1.33 (elite)ERA1.89 (elite)K%35.3 (elite)Whiff%27.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%20.0 (elite)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs67BB%5.9 (good)
MIA vs LHP
L6
wRC+96 (avg)K%23.1 (avg)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%28.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+104 (avg)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%22.9 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)
Tyler Phillips R
xERA4.67 (below)ERA4.76 (below)K%25.5 (good)Whiff%26.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%47.1 (poor)Barrel%11.8 (below)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs56BB%7.8 (avg)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+144 (elite)K%16.4 (above)Whiff%16.6 (elite)HH%31.4 (below)
L12
wRC+136 (elite)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%32.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 2.74 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 5.36 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-140-1.5 (+118)O7.0 (-118)MIA+132+1.5 (-137)U7.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-166-0.5 (-110)O3.5 (-130)MIA+134+0.5 (-118)U3.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS3.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-154/+120)MIA2.5 (-150/+120)1.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPayton Tolle6.5 (+116 / -131)17.5 (-140 / +120)Tyler Phillips3.5 (-128 / +106)14.5 (-155 / +116)
Payton Tolle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@ L1.01120000
L1.01120000Aug 19vs 
L5.09866233
L5.09866233Aug 13@ 
W8.09142200
W8.09142200Aug 7vs 
W6.084142011
W6.084142011Aug 1@ 
W6.08879222
W6.08879222Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L1.23442111
L1.23442111Aug 18@ 
L2.0*4232211
L2.0*4232211Aug 13vs 
L5.19266144
L5.19266144Aug 7vs 
L4.06145111
L4.06145111Aug 1@ 
W5.06536022
W5.06536022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Payton Tolle
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA1.00.00elite2.00.00.0(1)
at MIA1.00.00elite2.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@ L1.01120000
L1.01120000Tyler Phillips
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS1.27.50poor4.02.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L1.23442111
L1.23442111home starts3.45.24below4.74.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L1.23442111
L1.23442111Aug 13vs L5.19266144
L5.19266144Aug 7vs L4.06145111
L4.06145111Trends · BOS
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have won 4 straight.
- BOS are 4-1 in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 5-0 in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 6.6 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-2 to the over in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 1-2 to the over in Payton Tolle's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 4.2 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 3.2 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 3-2 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-1 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
- BOS bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- MIA bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- BOS — Payton Tolle: high-K outing 2026-08-07 (14 Ks vs avg 8.0 over his last 3)
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: 12 days since last start (2026-08-13) news ↗
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: 2026-08-13: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.92 ERA equivalent
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent opponents high-K: LAA 29%, PIT 27%
Payton Tolle o6.5 Ks (+122)
Tolle carries a 35.3% K rate and 27.3% Whiff% over his last 3 starts, averaging 8.0 strikeouts per outing with 14, 4 and 6 in those games, and he has worked 6.3 IP per start. Miami swings and misses plenty against left-handers, at a 26.3% Whiff% and 24.0% K rate vs LHP over their last 6, up from 21.7% over their last 12. His outs line at 17.5 has the over juiced to -153, so the market itself expects six innings and roughly 25 batters — at his rate that is seven strikeouts, and getting plus money on the seventh one is the mispricing.
BOS Team Total o4.5 (+106)
Boston has a 167 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 13.5% K rate, and the longer window backs it at 138 over their last 12 — this is established form, not a three-game heater. Tyler Phillips has allowed a 47.1% hard-hit rate with a 4.67 xERA over his last 3 starts and has not gone past five and a third at home in any of them, which puts Boston into a Miami bullpen that has run a 4.71 ERA over its last 12 and threw 4.3 relief innings in the past two days. Boston has averaged 6.6 runs over their last 5 games behind this starter, and a number of five runs is priced at plus money against a starter who cannot get through the order a third time.
Tyler Phillips u3.5 Ks (+104)
Phillips' 25.5% K rate over his last 3 starts was built against the Angels (29% K) and Pirates (27% K); Boston is the opposite profile at 16.4% vs RHP over their last 6 and 17.9% over their last 12, with a 16.6% whiff rate. His outs line at 14.5 tells you how short this is expected to run, and he has not thrown a competitive pitch in 12 days after 4 earned runs in 5.1 innings last time out. Four strikeouts inside roughly five innings against the lightest-whiffing lineup in the league is not an even-money outcome, and the under is priced at plus money.
TBR @ 
DET✓6:40 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
TBR @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ian Seymour LBULK
Opener: Casey Legumina (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA4.16 (avg)ERA3.71 (good)K%32.9 (elite)Whiff%30.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs94BB%5.5 (good)
DET vs LHP
L6
wRC+35 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%18.8 (above)HH%42.5 (above)
L12
wRC+53 (poor)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%42.1 (above)
Jackson Jobe R
xERA5.49 (poor)ERA4.50 (below)K%18.0 (avg)Whiff%19.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%40.5 (below)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs65BB%8.2 (avg)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+69 (poor)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%27.2 (poor)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%14.7 (elite)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%31.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 4.34 (avg)ERA 5.19 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 5.04 (below)2d stress Stressed (6.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-124-1.5 (+130)O7.5 (-115)DET+116+1.5 (-157)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-128-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (+102)DET+105+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-132)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR4.5 (+118/-140)1.5 (-160/+124)DET3.5 (-108/-118)1.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UIan Seymour——Jackson Jobe3.5 (+104 / -124)15.5 (+108 / -121)
Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs L5.09086133
L5.09086133Aug 15vs 
L6.09396133
L6.09396133Aug 9@ 
W6.09875211
W6.09875211Aug 3@ 
W6.09097022
W6.09097022Jul 29vs 
W4.2*7142100
W4.2*7142100Jackson Jobe · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L2.03421100
L2.03421100Aug 19@ L5.18634311
L5.18634311Aug 14vs 
L3.27449166
L3.27449166Aug 8@ 
W5.07141100
W5.07141100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jackson Jobe
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR2.00.00elite2.01.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L2.03421100
L2.03421100home starts3.18.62poor3.35.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L2.03421100
L2.03421100Aug 14vs L3.27449166
L3.27449166May 28vs W4.29547333
W4.29547333Trends · TBR
- TBR are 1-3 vs DET this season (4 games).
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-1 in Ian Seymour's last 4 away starts.
- TBR average 5.4 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 7.0 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 1-4 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 3 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-1 vs TBR this season (4 games).
- DET are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- DET have lost 6 straight.
- DET are 1-2 in Jackson Jobe's last 3 starts.
- DET are 0-1 in Jackson Jobe's last 1 home starts.
- DET average 5.3 runs/game in Jackson Jobe's last 3 starts.
- DET average 5.0 runs/game in Jackson Jobe's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 1-1 to the over in Jackson Jobe's last 2 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph S
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- OPENER: TBR start Casey Legumina (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.3 IP (longest 2.0)), with Ian Seymour (LHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — DET's offense line is split against LHP, not the opener's.
- DET bullpen stressed (6.7 IP over 1g)
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-29, 2026-07-23
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: SEA 27%, BAL 27%
- DET — Jackson Jobe: 2026-08-14: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.88 ERA equivalent
- DET — Jackson Jobe: recent opponents high-K: SFG 28%, CHW 27%, PIT 27%
Jackson Jobe u15.5 Outs (-121)
Jobe has gone 5.0, 3.2 and 5.1 innings in his last 3 starts — 15, 11 and 16 outs — and his 3 starts at Comerica this season have produced a 7.98 ERA on 4.1 IP/gs, none of them past 15 outs. His 5.49 xERA and 8.2% walk rate over the last 3 have him running pitch counts up early, and Tampa Bay reaches base enough vs right-handers to keep that pattern going. The number sits right at the ceiling of his recent workload rather than the middle of it.
COL @ 
WSN6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
COL @ WSNMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Mason Adams R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+91 (below)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%21.3 (avg)HH%32.9 (below)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%20.9 (above)HH%31.6 (below)
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA3.61 (good)ERA2.25 (elite)K%17.5 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs53BB%7.9 (avg)
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+68 (poor)K%26.0 (below)Whiff%19.7 (above)HH%38.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+55 (poor)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (above)HH%29.8 (poor)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 5.20 (below)ERA 4.15 (avg)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 4.78 (below)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+137+1.5 (-160)O8.5 (-108)WSN-142-1.5 (+135)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+124+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-114)WSN-156-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-135/+105)WSN4.5 (+100/-120)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMason Adams——Andrew Alvarez4.5 (-128 / +105)15.5 (+116 / -154)
Mason Adams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@ L1.01921100
L1.01921100Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L1.01210000
L1.01210000Aug 20@ L5.07554311
L5.07554311Aug 14@ L5.27342122
L5.27342122Aug 8vs 
W5.17323111
W5.17323111Aug 3@ L6.18153322
L6.18153322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mason Adams
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN1.00.00elite2.01.01.0(1)
at WSN1.00.00elite2.01.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@ L1.01921100
L1.01921100Andrew Alvarez
IPERAKHBB
vs COL2.55.29poor1.53.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L1.01210000
L1.01210000Jul 20@ W4.17426333
W4.17426333home starts3.01.48elite1.51.50.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs L1.01210000
L1.01210000Aug 8vs W5.17323111
W5.17323111Trends · COL
- COL are 1-3 vs WSN this season (4 games).
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- COL have lost 7 straight.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-1 vs COL this season (4 games).
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-2 in Andrew Alvarez's last 4 home starts.
- WSN average 3.8 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.8 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-1 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph NW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- COL — Mason Adams: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- COL offense: K% 26.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 19.7 supports
- COL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.20 over its last 12
- COL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: last start: 75 pitches over 5.0 IP
HOU @ 
NYY✓7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
HOU @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ethan Pecko R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+103 (avg)K%30.5 (poor)Whiff%26.5 (below)HH%46.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%28.5 (poor)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%47.4 (elite)
Will Warren R
xERA5.80 (poor)ERA6.75 (poor)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%58.5 (poor)Barrel%12.2 (below)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%11.3 (below)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+69 (poor)K%27.6 (below)Whiff%25.6 (below)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%25.3 (below)HH%36.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 2.54 (elite)ERA 1.55 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+131+1.5 (-166)O8.5 (-117)NYY-138-1.5 (+141)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+116+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-135)NYY-140-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU3.5 (-140/+110)1.5 (-160/+124)NYY4.5 (-110/-115)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEthan Pecko4.5 (+120 / -150)14.5 (-110 / -106)Will Warren4.5 (-140 / +114)15.5 (+102 / -125)
Ethan Pecko · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W3.28943322
W3.28943322Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ W4.09053222
W4.09053222Aug 12vs W4.08136455
W4.08136455Aug 5vs 
L5.19157133
L5.19157133Jul 31@ 
W6.28874000
W6.28874000Jul 26@ L3.06856266
L3.06856266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Will Warren
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.53.27good5.06.00.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 24@ W6.09567122
W6.09567122Sep 3@ L5.06745022
L5.06745022home starts4.57.91poor4.06.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W4.08136455
W4.08136455Aug 5vs L5.19157133
L5.19157133Trends · HOU
- HOU are 1-2 vs NYY this season (3 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 1-0 in Ethan Pecko's last 1 starts.
- HOU average 3.0 runs/game in Ethan Pecko's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-1 vs HOU this season (3 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 4.4 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-1 to the over in Will Warren's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph W
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- HOU — Ethan Pecko: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- HOU bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- NYY — Will Warren: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-22
Will Warren u15.5 Outs (-125)
Warren has recorded 16, 12 and 12 outs over his last 3 starts, averaging 4.4 innings, and the underlying numbers say that is not bad luck — a 5.80 xERA, 58.5% hard-hit rate and 11.3% walk rate over that window. Houston's 69 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 is weak, but his own command is what has been ending these outings in the fourth and fifth, and New York's bullpen has already worked 5.0 innings over the past two days without shortening his leash in any of those starts. The line asks for a fifth inning completed, which he has managed once in three tries.
KCR @ TOR✓7:07 PM · Rogers CentreNeutral Conditions
KCR @ TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Seth Lugo R
xERA3.51 (good)ERA7.02 (poor)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%15.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%1.8 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs91BB%1.4 (elite)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+124 (above)K%16.9 (above)Whiff%18.9 (above)HH%33.1 (below)
L12
wRC+109 (avg)K%19.3 (above)Whiff%20.4 (above)HH%35.0 (avg)
Max Scherzer R
xERA3.04 (good)ERA6.28 (poor)K%14.5 (below)Whiff%19.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%18.8 (elite)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs83BB%8.1 (avg)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+142 (elite)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%40.5 (above)
L12
wRC+120 (above)K%19.0 (above)Whiff%19.9 (above)HH%36.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.35 (avg)ERA 3.59 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 2.90 (elite)ERA 3.65 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+120+1.5 (-185)O8.5 (-101)TOR-126-1.5 (+160)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+106+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-128)TOR-130-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-154/+120)TOR4.5 (+122/-140)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo3.5 (-130 / +105)17.5 (-148 / +119)Max Scherzer3.5 (-140 / +116)15.5 (+128 / -151)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W6.09639055
W6.09639055Aug 14@ W4.28647055
W4.28647055Aug 8vs W6.09055133
W6.09055133Aug 2@ L5.09935555
L5.09935555Jul 28@ 
L6.08426211
L6.08426211Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ L4.07315377
L4.07315377Aug 13vs L5.09243211
L5.09243211Aug 8@ W5.18445022
W5.18445022Aug 2vs L6.08454111
L6.08454111Jul 27@ W2.27544311
W2.27544311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.24.29avg3.04.04.0(1)
at TOR4.24.29avg3.04.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 3@ W4.29134422
W4.29134422Max Scherzer
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR3.111.61poor3.56.00.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19@ L0.24527177
L0.24527177Aug 2vs W6.08455011
W6.08455011home starts4.74.47avg4.34.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13vs L5.09243211
L5.09243211Aug 2vs L6.08454111
L6.08454111Jun 10vs L3.18245355
L3.18245355Trends · KCR
- KCR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR have won 8 straight.
- KCR are 3-2 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 5.0 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 5.6 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-3 in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 0-5 in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 3.4 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 2.6 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 3-2 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-1 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
70°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph SSE
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- TOR — Max Scherzer: last start: 73 pitches over 4.0 IP
- TOR — Max Scherzer: 2026-08-19: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.66 ERA equivalent
- TOR — Max Scherzer: recent opponents low-K: PHI 16%, BOS 16%, TBR 17%
Max Scherzer u3.5 Ks (+122)
Scherzer has a 14.5% K rate over his last 3 starts with 4, 4 and 1 strikeouts, averaging 3.0 per outing and 4.8 IP, and his last time out was 73 pitches over four innings. Kansas City makes contact at a 16.7% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 19.0% over their last 12, and they are swinging well at a 142 wRC+ over the last 6, which means traffic rather than quiet innings. His own outs line sits at 15.5 with the under juiced to -167 — the market expects fewer than five innings and roughly 19 or 20 batters, which at his current bat-missing rate is three strikeouts, yet the strikeout market is priced for four.
KCR Team Total o3.5 (-128)
Kansas City is at a 142 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 games, up from 120 over its last 12, with a 40.5% hard-hit rate, and Scherzer has been scuffling — 7 ER in 4.0 innings last time out, a 6.38 ERA and 4.8 IP/gs across his last 3. That short outing puts the Royals into the Toronto bullpen by the fifth, and Kansas City has averaged 5.6 runs in its last 5 road games behind Lugo. Four runs against a starter working under five innings is a lower bar than this price sets.
MIL @ NYM✓7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
MIL @ NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Harrison L
xERA2.75 (elite)ERA4.91 (below)K%33.9 (elite)Whiff%30.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%29.4 (elite)Barrel%11.8 (below)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs79BB%9.7 (avg)
NYM vs LHP
L6
wRC+94 (below)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%28.5 (poor)HH%38.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+61 (poor)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%24.9 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Zac Thornton L
xERA4.33 (avg)ERA3.38 (good)K%18.2 (avg)Whiff%17.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.0 (below)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs81BB%6.1 (good)
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%34.4 (below)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%25.6 (below)HH%40.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.76 (elite)ERA 1.85 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 3.38 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-156-1.5 (+110)O7.5 (-102)NYM+148+1.5 (-132)U7.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-164-0.5 (-108)O4.5 (+114)NYM+130+0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)NYM3.5 (+124/-154)1.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Harrison5.5 (-115 / -107)15.5 (+141 / -170)Zac Thornton3.5 (-156 / +124)15.5 (+102 / -124)
Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs W5.07982200
W5.07982200Aug 11@ 
L4.290310338
L4.290310338Aug 5vs W5.069101100
W5.069101100Jul 8@ L4.07024033
L4.07024033Jul 3@ W2.27235133
W2.27235133Zac Thornton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs L5.09977133
L5.09977133Aug 12@ 
L6.08027133
L6.08027133Aug 7@ W5.06334200
W5.06334200Aug 1vs L4.29426334
L4.29426334Jul 27vs W6.18156133
W6.18156133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zac Thornton
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.00.00elite2.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@ W6.08123100
W6.08123100home starts5.15.29poor4.76.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs L5.09977133
L5.09977133Aug 1vs L4.29426334
L4.29426334Jul 27vs W6.18156133
W6.18156133Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-1 vs NYM this season (3 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-3 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 7.2 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.6 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 2-2 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 4 starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-2 vs MIL this season (3 games).
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 2-3 in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-4 in Zac Thornton's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 5.4 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.2 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-2 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- NYM bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: last start: 79 pitches over 5.0 IP
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: recent opponents high-K: PIT 32%, SDP 29%, SEA 27%
- NYM — Zac Thornton: recent opponents high-K: PIT 32%, ATL 26%, SDP 29%
Zac Thornton u4.5 Ks (+130)
Thornton's 18.2% K rate and 17.6% whiff rate over his last 3 starts have produced 3, 2 and 7 strikeouts, an average of four across 5.3 innings per start. Milwaukee has cut its K rate to 20.4% vs LHP over the last 6 games from 24.4% over the last 12 while posting a 132 wRC+ against left-handers in that stretch, so this is a lineup both making more contact and doing more damage — the kind of afternoon that shortens an outing rather than lengthens it. Five strikeouts is above his recent average against a lineup trending away from whiffs, and the under is being paid +130 for the more likely result.
LAD @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
LAD @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Glasnow R
xERA2.31 (elite)ERA1.84 (elite)K%37.7 (elite)Whiff%33.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs1.7PC/gs72BB%13.2 (poor)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+61 (poor)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%46.8 (elite)
L12
wRC+60 (poor)K%23.6 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (above)HH%40.8 (above)
Bryce Elder R
xERA3.66 (good)ERA4.50 (below)K%16.0 (below)Whiff%16.3 (below)
More Stats
HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%8.0 (avg)
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+117 (above)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%39.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 2.56 (elite)ERA 3.66 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.29 (good)ERA 3.29 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-148-1.5 (+110)O8.5 (-118)ATL+138+1.5 (-130)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-160-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-125)ATL+135+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (-118/-105)2.5 (-110/-120)ATL3.5 (-120/-104)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Glasnow6.5 (+120 / +132)15.5 (+100 / -125)Bryce Elder3.5 (-142 / +118)15.5 (-108 / -122)
Tyler Glasnow · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 6@ W1.01921011
W1.01921011Apr 29vs L5.29293622
L5.29293622Apr 23@ W8.010591100
W8.010591100Apr 17@ W7.09272211
W7.09272211Apr 10vs W6.010075144
W6.010075144Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs W6.07554111
W6.07554111Aug 10vs L5.0105410377
L5.0105410377Aug 5vs W7.08431211
W7.08431211Jul 31vs W6.09334311
W6.09334311Jul 25@ L5.09884412
L5.09884412SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Glasnow
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.00.00elite8.02.03.0(1)
at ATL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 31vs W5.07982300
W5.07982300Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.73.17good5.72.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 10@ W5.28381400
W5.28381400May 4vs W5.08664222
W5.08664222Apr 2@ L4.07033233
L4.07033233home starts6.04.50below4.05.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs W6.07554111
W6.07554111Aug 10vs L5.0105410377
L5.0105410377Aug 5vs W7.08431211
W7.08431211Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-2 vs ATL this season (3 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD have won 6 straight.
- LAD are 4-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-0 in Tyler Glasnow's last 4 away starts.
- LAD average 6.4 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 8.0 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 2-1 vs LAD this season (3 games).
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Bryce Elder's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 4.4 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.6 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-1 to the over in Bryce Elder's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph NW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- ATL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: 111 days since last start (2026-05-06) news ↗
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: last start: 19 pitches over 1.0 IP
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: 2026-05-06: 1 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.73 ERA equivalent
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: low-K outing 2026-05-06 (2 Ks vs avg 6.7 over his last 3)
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: recent opponents high-K: SFG 28%, HOU 28%
- ATL — Bryce Elder: last start: 75 pitches over 6.0 IP
- ATL — Bryce Elder: 2026-08-10: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.39 ERA equivalent
Tyler Glasnow u15.5 Outs (-155)
Glasnow has not started in 111 days and his last time out was 19 pitches over a single inning, so this is a first outing back rather than a settled workload. Even at full strength he averaged 4.9 IP across his last 3 starts with a 13.2% walk rate, and Los Angeles has an elite bullpen behind him at 2.56 xERA over its last 12 games with only 3.0 relief innings used in the past two days. Paying this price buys a short number that requires him to get through five and a third in his first game back, which the pitch count from his last appearance argues strongly against.
ATL Team Total u3.5 (-105)
Atlanta has a 61 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 games and 60 over their last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is established form rather than a slump, and it comes with a 25.4% K rate over the last 6. Glasnow's 2.31 xERA and 37.7% K rate over his last 3 starts front the game, and behind him the Dodgers hand off to a bullpen with a 2.56 xERA and 30.0% K rate over its last 12 with only 3.0 relief innings used in the past two days. Holding this lineup to three is being priced at even money despite an offense that has not produced league-average run scoring against right-handers in a month.
TEX @ CHW7:40 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
TEX @ CHWMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jacob deGrom R
xERA3.22 (good)ERA2.08 (elite)K%44.0 (elite)Whiff%35.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%56.0 (poor)Barrel%12.0 (below)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs78BB%6.0 (good)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+75 (poor)K%26.5 (below)Whiff%28.8 (poor)HH%34.3 (below)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%24.9 (below)Whiff%28.7 (poor)HH%37.9 (avg)
Anthony Kay L
xERA3.40 (good)ERA3.63 (good)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%26.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.5 (below)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88BB%4.2 (elite)
TEX vs LHP
L6
wRC+136 (elite)K%19.6 (above)Whiff%21.6 (avg)HH%51.5 (elite)
L12
wRC+115 (above)K%19.4 (above)Whiff%18.9 (above)HH%45.7 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 5.10 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.78 (avg)ERA 3.74 (good)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-106-1.5 (+155)O7.5 (+105)CHW+100+1.5 (-182)U7.0 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-130-0.5 (+112)O3.5 (-128)CHW+106+0.5 (-146)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (-118/-105)1.5 (-130/+100)CHW3.5 (+104/-125)1.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJacob deGrom6.5 (-113 / -105)16.5 (-118 / +100)Anthony Kay4.5 (-122 / +106)16.5 (-132 / +100)
Jacob deGrom · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs W6.094101100
W6.094101100Aug 13@ L2.05336122
L2.05336122Aug 8vs W5.08893111
W5.08893111Aug 1@ L3.19137555
L3.19137555Jul 26vs L5.09047011
L5.09047011Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs L6.09465122
L6.09465122Aug 15@ W5.18646133
W5.18646133Aug 8vs 
W6.08346122
W6.08346122Aug 2@ W6.18937100
W6.18937100Jul 28vs L5.19775133
L5.19775133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jacob deGrom
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.16.18poor6.06.01.0(2)
at CHW—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs L4.29767255
L4.29767255Jun 14vs W6.08265022
W6.08265022Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.03.60good4.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ W5.07945222
W5.07945222home starts5.73.68good5.75.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs L6.09465122
L6.09465122Aug 8vs W6.08346122
W6.08346122Jul 28vs L5.19775133
L5.19775133Trends · TEX
- TEX are 2-2 vs CHW this season (4 games).
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-4 in Jacob deGrom's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 3.0 runs/game in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 2.6 runs/game in Jacob deGrom's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 to the over in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-1 to the over in Jacob deGrom's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-2 vs TEX this season (4 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 3-2 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-4 in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 4.2 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 2.6 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 6 mph SE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- CHW bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
- TEX — Jacob deGrom: 2026-08-13: 2 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
- TEX — Jacob deGrom: recent opponents high-K: BAL 25%, LAA 29%
AI Analysis
The lines are fair: Texas at a 136 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 against Kay is offset by deGrom averaging just 4.3 IP/gs, and the total split at 7.5/7.0 already reflects a Chicago offense down to a 75 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6. deGrom's 6.5 strikeout number is a real price for a pitcher who has gone 9, 3 and 10 over his last 3, but he got exactly 6 in each of his two starts against the White Sox this year and his short outings cap the ceiling; his 16.5 outs line matches that 4.3 IP/gs exactly. Kay's 4.5 strikeouts and 16.5 outs both sit right where his last 3 starts landed at 4.7 K/start and 5.8 IP/gs.
BAL @ STL✓7:45 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
BAL @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Chris Bassitt R
xERA5.25 (poor)ERA5.14 (below)K%15.6 (below)Whiff%17.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs80BB%9.4 (avg)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+79 (poor)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%44.0 (above)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%41.9 (above)
M. Liberatore L
xERA3.89 (avg)ERA5.51 (poor)K%27.7 (good)Whiff%23.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%11.6 (below)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs96BB%4.6 (elite)
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+2 (poor)K%26.9 (below)Whiff%27.9 (below)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%27.3 (below)Whiff%26.8 (below)HH%45.5 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.62 (elite)ERA 2.59 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 5.52 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+120+1.5 (-184)O8.0 (-112)STL-124-1.5 (+158)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+114+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-114)STL-140-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-154/+120)STL4.5 (+122/-154)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChris Bassitt3.5 (-120 / +109)16.5 (+103 / -110)M. Liberatore5.5 (-113 / -113)—
Chris Bassitt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs L5.29568133
L5.29568133Aug 14@ W5.18835322
W5.18835322Jun 3@ L3.05616233
L3.05616233May 28vs L6.08024111
L6.08024111May 22vs W4.1*5846033
W4.1*5846033M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ L6.010094033
L6.010094033Aug 14@ L5.19562122
L5.19562122Aug 8vs L5.09439255
L5.09439255Aug 2@ W6.08571100
W6.08571100Jul 27vs L3.26758233
L3.26758233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chris Bassitt
IPERAKHBB
vs STL7.05.14below3.06.02.0(1)
at STL7.05.14below3.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 10@ W7.08936244
W7.08936244M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL—
home starts4.75.07below4.77.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs L5.09439255
L5.09439255Jul 27vs L3.26758233
L3.26758233Jul 11vs W6.07164100
W6.07164100Trends · BAL
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 2.8 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 5.4 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-1 to the over in Chris Bassitt's last 2 starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-4 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 3.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 4.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 2-3 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-1 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
87°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph SE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- STL bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-22
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: 2026-06-03: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.36 ERA equivalent
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: recent opponents low-K: BOS 16%, TBR 17%
- STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-08-08: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.01 ERA equivalent
Chris Bassitt u16.5 Outs (-110)
Bassitt has recorded 9, 16 and 17 outs in his last 3 starts, averaging 4.7 IP/gs behind a 5.25 xERA and a 9.4% walk rate, and he needed 95 pitches to get 17 outs last time. St. Louis makes him work — a 44.0% hard-hit rate vs right-handers over its last 6 games — and Baltimore has an elite bullpen at a 2.62 xERA over its last 12 with only 3.3 innings used in the past two days, giving no reason to stretch him. The line sits at the very top of his recent range rather than the middle.
M. Liberatore o5.5 Ks (-113)
Liberatore has a 27.7 K% and 23.1 K-BB% over his last 3 starts with strikeout totals of 3, 6 and 9, trending up, and he went 6.0 innings on 100 pitches his last time out. Baltimore strikes out at a 26.9 rate vs LHP over their last 6 and 27.3 over their last 12 with a 27.9 Whiff% in the recent window — the same number in both windows, so it is their established profile, not a slump. Their bats have also collapsed to a 2 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6, which keeps traffic down and lets him work deep. A coin-flip price on a pitcher whose rate and this opponent's contact problems both point the same way is short.
CLE @ LAA✓9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
CLE @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gavin Williams R
xERA3.80 (avg)ERA5.17 (below)K%32.9 (elite)Whiff%32.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%13.2 (below)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs96BB%12.9 (below)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%28.7 (poor)Whiff%27.3 (below)HH%36.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+91 (below)K%25.8 (below)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%37.0 (avg)
Walbert Urena R
xERA3.32 (good)ERA4.73 (below)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs81BB%12.5 (below)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+102 (avg)K%13.9 (elite)Whiff%15.3 (elite)HH%41.9 (above)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%15.8 (elite)Whiff%16.1 (elite)HH%36.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.57 (elite)ERA 1.80 (elite)2d stress Normal (4.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 1.80 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-140-1.5 (+123)O7.0 (-110)LAA+132+1.5 (-140)U7.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-145-0.5 (+106)O3.5 (-115)LAA+118+0.5 (-138)U3.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-135/+105)LAA2.5 (-142/+120)1.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGavin Williams8.5 (+116 / -138)18.5 (+137 / +130)Walbert Urena4.5 (+130 / -158)15.5 (-120 / +100)
Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs W5.296114322
W5.296114322Aug 14vs L4.19157455
L4.19157455Aug 8@ L5.210273222
L5.210273222Aug 2vs W5.289101100
W5.289101100Jul 28@ L7.0101123122
L7.0101123122Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ L5.09473233
L5.09473233Aug 13vs W6.010052200
W6.010052200Aug 8@ L2.15024344
L2.15024344Aug 2vs W6.09073300
W6.09073300Jul 27vs L6.09152211
L6.09152211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA4.61.96elite5.53.02.5(2)
at LAA3.06.00poor5.05.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 1vs W6.210361202
W6.210361202Apr 4@ W3.07555324
W3.07555324Walbert Urena
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.03.60good4.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 12@ L5.09143122
L5.09143122home starts6.00.50elite5.72.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13vs W6.010052200
W6.010052200Aug 2vs W6.09073300
W6.09073300Jul 27vs L6.09152211
L6.09152211Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-0 vs LAA this season (4 games).
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have won 5 straight.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 4 starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-4 vs CLE this season (4 games).
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 2-3 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 3-2 in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 3.2 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 4.4 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 2-3 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-2 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-08-14: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.46 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Gavin Williams: recent opponents high-K: CHW 27%, SFG 28%
- LAA — Walbert Urena: 2026-08-08: 4 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.70 ERA equivalent
Gavin Williams u17.5 Outs (+123)
Williams has gone 17, 13 and 17 outs in his last 3 starts, needing 102, 91 and 96 pitches to get there, so he has to do something he has not done recently to clear this number. His 12.9% walk rate over those 3 starts is what inflates the pitch counts, and Cleveland has no reason to stretch him with a bullpen carrying a 2.58 xERA and 30.7% K rate over its last 12 and only 4.0 relief innings used in the past two days. His one previous trip to Angel Stadium lasted three innings, and the market is paying plus money on the side that his own recent box scores land on every time.
CHC @ ARI✓9:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
CHC @ ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Clay Holmes R
xERA4.10 (avg)ERA2.81 (elite)K%7.9 (poor)Whiff%13.1 (below)
More Stats
HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs79BB%7.9 (avg)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+79 (poor)K%13.9 (elite)Whiff%13.0 (elite)HH%34.9 (below)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%16.1 (elite)HH%37.6 (avg)
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA2.41 (elite)ERA2.29 (elite)K%24.3 (good)Whiff%27.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%27.5 (elite)Barrel%3.9 (elite)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%2.9 (elite)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 2.91 (elite)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 5.13 (below)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-108-1.5 (+148)O8.0 (-114)ARI+101+1.5 (-178)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-110-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (+100)ARI-106+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC4.5 (+114/+116)1.5 (-154/+120)ARI3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UClay Holmes3.5 (+107 / -136)16.5 (-109 / -121)Brandon Pfaadt4.5 (+120 / -136)17.5 (-130 / +100)
Clay Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs L5.18616211
L5.18616211Aug 14vs W6.28031100
W6.28031100Aug 8@ L4.07016244
L4.07016244May 15vs L4.19587244
L4.19587244May 9@ L5.210365222
L5.210365222Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ W5.29487055
W5.29487055Aug 14@ W7.08772000
W7.08772000Aug 8vs L7.09322200
L7.09322200Aug 3vs W6.29035101
W6.29035101Jul 28@ W7.010146100
W7.010146100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Clay Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.23.46good6.05.02.0(1)
at ARI5.23.46good6.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 9@ L5.210365222
L5.210365222Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC6.04.50below5.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 29vs L6.07856133
L6.07856133home starts6.10.98elite2.74.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs L7.09322200
L7.09322200Aug 3vs W6.29035101
W6.29035101Jul 18vs W5.18736022
W5.18736022Trends · CHC
- CHC are 4-0 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 1-2 in Clay Holmes's last 3 starts.
- CHC are 0-1 in Clay Holmes's last 1 away starts.
- CHC average 2.0 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 3 starts.
- CHC average 3.0 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 0-2 to the over in Clay Holmes's last 2 starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 0-4 vs CHC this season (4 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 4.6 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 2-3 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
- ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.13 over its last 12
- CHC bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
- ARI bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- CHC — Clay Holmes: 2026-08-08: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.88 ERA equivalent
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: 2026-08-19: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: low-K outing 2026-08-08 (2 Ks vs avg 5.7 over his last 3)
- TREND: ARI — was shut out 7-0 last time out (2026-08-24)
Clay Holmes u3.5 Ks (-135)
Holmes has a 7.9% K rate and 13.1% Whiff% over his last 3 starts, striking out 1, 3 and 1 across those outings for an average of 1.7 per start. Arizona is the toughest lineup on the board to miss bats against, at a 14.0% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 15.5% over their last 12, so both windows agree they put the ball in play. Even the 16.5 outs the market gives him only buys about 22 batters, and at his current bat-missing rate that is a two-strikeout afternoon; the price is set as though his one 6-K meeting with Arizona in May is the norm rather than the outlier.
Brandon Pfaadt o4.5 Ks (+120)
Pfaadt carries a 24.3% K rate and 27.8% whiff rate over his last 3 starts with a 2.9% walk rate and 6.6 IP/gs, and he struck out 7 and 8 in his two most recent outings. The Cubs strike out 22.6% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6 games and 21.8% over their last 12, so the whiffs are available, and his outs line at 17.5 gives him roughly six innings to need five. Plus money on a pitcher whose command lets him work deep and who has cleared this number in two of his last three is the wrong side of the ledger.
MIN @ ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
MIN @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Taj Bradley R
xERA3.55 (good)ERA5.79 (poor)K%25.8 (good)Whiff%24.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.0 (below)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs91BB%13.6 (poor)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+108 (avg)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%27.4 (below)HH%35.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%34.0 (below)
Gage Jump L
xERA4.77 (below)ERA5.87 (poor)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%26.5 (elite)Barrel%8.2 (avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs96BB%12.3 (below)
MIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+114 (avg)K%13.3 (elite)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%32.6 (below)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%19.4 (above)Whiff%18.2 (above)HH%35.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 4.67 (below)ERA 5.66 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN-146-1.5 (+102)O10.5 (-105)ATH+138+1.5 (-120)U10.5 (-111)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN-145-0.5 (-113)O5.5 (-114)ATH+116+0.5 (-115)U5.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN5.5 (-113/-105)2.5 (-125/-105)ATH4.5 (+100/-120)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTaj Bradley5.5 (-103 / -104)17.5 (-114 / -110)Gage Jump5.5 (+130 / -158)15.5 (+114 / -137)
Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W5.08872311
W5.08872311Aug 13vs L4.08937455
L4.08937455Aug 8@ L5.09775233
L5.09775233Aug 2@ L6.09427433
L6.09427433Jul 28vs W6.0102103322
W6.0102103322Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20@ L4.08638355
L4.08638355Aug 14vs W5.110113433
W5.110113433Aug 8@ W6.0100116222
W6.0100116222Aug 2vs L3.28854666
L3.28854666Jul 28vs W6.09073400
W6.09073400SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN—
home starts4.85.66poor4.33.34.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs W5.110113433
W5.110113433Aug 2vs L3.28854666
L3.28854666Jul 28vs W6.09073400
W6.09073400Trends · MIN
- MIN are 3-1 vs ATH this season (4 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-3 in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 3.8 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 4.4 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 1-4 to the over in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 1-2 to the over in Taj Bradley's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 1-3 vs MIN this season (4 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 3-2 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 4.2 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.8 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 to the over in Gage Jump's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
92°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph WSW
APF 109 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- ATH bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g)
- MIN — Taj Bradley: 2026-08-13: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.60 ERA equivalent
- MIN — Taj Bradley: recent opponents low-K: MIL 18%, PHI 16%
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-08-20: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.15 ERA equivalent
- ATH — Gage Jump: high-K outing 2026-08-08 (11 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- ATH — Gage Jump: low-K outing 2026-08-14 (1 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- ATH — Gage Jump: recent opponents low-K: BOS 12%, KCR 13%
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 109)
Taj Bradley u17.5 Outs (-105)
Bradley has recorded 15, 12 and 15 outs in his last 3 starts, averaging 4.7 IP per outing, and the number posted here asks for nearly a full inning more than his deepest recent start. His 13.6% walk rate over those 3 starts is what has been running his pitch counts up — 97, 89 and 88 pitches for those short outings — and Minnesota has a rested bullpen at 3.0 relief innings over the past two days. Sacramento's park plays hot at a 109 factor in 94-degree air, and the market is pricing six innings from a starter who has not finished five and a third since July.
Gage Jump u5.5 Ks (+124)
Jump's 20.5% K rate over his last 3 starts has produced wildly uneven totals — 11, then 1, then 3 — and his 5.1 IP per start with a 12.3% walk rate leaves little room for volume. Minnesota is striking out at just 13.3% vs LHP over their last 6 games, down sharply from 19.4% over their last 12, so the bats he faces tonight are making contact at a well above-average clip. Six strikeouts from a pitcher averaging five against the lightest-whiffing version of this lineup is not an even-money outcome, and the under is being paid plus money for it.
PHI @ SEA✓9:40 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
PHI @ SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Aaron Nola R
xERA2.94 (elite)ERA2.12 (elite)K%35.2 (elite)Whiff%35.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs98BB%7.0 (good)
SEA vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%32.9 (below)
L12
wRC+138 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
George Kirby R
xERA4.53 (below)ERA8.31 (poor)K%10.9 (poor)Whiff%17.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%10.9 (below)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+120 (above)K%16.4 (above)Whiff%19.6 (above)HH%34.4 (below)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%16.2 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%35.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.57 (good)ERA 2.68 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 4.85 (below)ERA 9.14 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-102-1.5 (+160)O8.0 (-105)SEA-102+1.5 (-184)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI+100+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-102)SEA-124-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI3.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-154/+120)SEA3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAaron Nola5.5 (-125 / +104)17.5 (-110 / -108)George Kirby4.5 (-119 / -104)17.5 (-124 / -107)
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W7.010085011
W7.010085011Aug 13@ W5.09795311
W5.09795311Aug 8vs L5.09786222
L5.09786222Aug 3vs W6.09756233
W6.09756233Jul 28@ L5.29345311
L5.29345311George Kirby · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20@ L3.18439266
L3.18439266Aug 14@ L4.29928355
L4.29928355Aug 8vs L5.09924211
L5.09924211Aug 2vs W7.09435100
W7.09435100Jul 27@ L4.06637077
L4.06637077SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
George Kirby
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts6.00.50elite3.74.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs L5.09924211
L5.09924211Aug 2vs W7.09435100
W7.09435100Jul 20vs W6.08063100
W6.08063100Trends · PHI
- PHI are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-3 in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 4.4 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 3.2 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 2-3 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 0-2 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 1-4 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 3-2 in George Kirby's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 4.6 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.2 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 3-2 to the over in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
80°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WSW
APF 93 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 5
- SEA — George Kirby: Whiff% 17.0 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.9 shows
- PHI bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- SEA bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- PHI — Aaron Nola: recent opponents low-K: TOR 17%, MIN 14%
- SEA — George Kirby: recent opponents low-K: TBR 17%, MIL 18%
George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+114)
Kirby has struck out 2, 2 and 3 over his last 3 starts on a 10.9% K rate, and he has been getting shorter — 5.0, 4.2 and 3.1 innings, with six earned runs allowed in the most recent one. Philadelphia is the worst possible lineup for a bounce-back, at a 12.9% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 16.4% over their last 12 alongside a 140 wRC+, so the at-bats end in contact and the innings run long. Getting plus money on four strikeouts or fewer from a pitcher who has not reached four in any of his last three, against a lineup that barely strikes out, is the market pricing his reputation rather than his current stuff.
Aaron Nola o5.5 Ks (-146)
Nola has struck out 8, 9 and 8 in his last 3 starts on a 35.2% K rate and 35.0% Whiff%, averaging 5.7 IP with a 7.0% walk rate, and those totals came against Toronto at 17% and Minnesota at 15% — lineups that strike out less than today's opponent. Seattle whiffs at 19.0% with a 22.7% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and is scuffling at an 80 wRC+ over that stretch, which keeps his pitch count workable. Paying this price buys a number two and a half strikeouts below what he has produced in each of his last three starts against tougher contact lineups.
PHI Team Total o3.5 (-136)
Philadelphia is at a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 122 over their last 12 with a 16.4 K% in the recent window — a lineup that both hits and refuses to give away outs, with 7 of 9 in today's order holding the platoon edge. Kirby has been battered for a 4.53 xERA and 8.78 ERA over his last 3 starts, allowing 8 and 9 hits in the last two while lasting 4.2 and 3.1 innings, and his 4.3 IP/gs hands the game to a Seattle bullpen carrying a 4.85 xERA and 9.14 ERA over its last 12 at elevated workload. Four runs from this offense against that sequence is the likely outcome, and the price is set as though it is an even proposition.
PIT @ SDP✓9:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
PIT @ SDP✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Paul Skenes R
xERA4.90 (below)ERA4.40 (avg)K%24.6 (good)Whiff%27.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs80BB%14.8 (poor)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+119 (above)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%26.6 (below)HH%39.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+123 (above)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%43.0 (above)
Michael King R
xERA2.76 (elite)ERA2.89 (elite)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%25.9 (elite)Barrel%7.4 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs92BB%5.6 (good)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%27.4 (below)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%34.6 (below)
L12
wRC+98 (avg)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%37.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.25 (good)ERA 3.74 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.20 (elite)ERA 1.90 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+112+1.5 (-205)O7.5 (+105)SDP-119-1.5 (+170)U7.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-112+0.5 (-170)O3.5 (-128)SDP-112-0.5 (+130)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (-125/-105)SDP3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes5.5 (-156 / +124)15.5 (-129 / -102)Michael King5.5 (-113 / -111)17.5 (-127 / +110)
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W4.18154433
W4.18154433Aug 11@ L5.06545112
L5.06545112Aug 5@ L5.09362433
L5.09362433Jul 31@ L4.010077455
L4.010077455Jul 25vs L5.1105116255
L5.1105116255Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ L6.210044222
L6.210044222Aug 14@ W6.08348134
W6.08348134Aug 8vs W6.09363111
W6.09363111Aug 3@ L5.010455433
L5.010455433Jul 28vs W6.09866144
W6.09866144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP6.11.48elite6.02.02.0(1)
at SDP—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 7vs W6.18762211
W6.18762211Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.03.00good4.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 8@ W6.09544322
W6.09544322home starts6.03.00good5.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W6.09363111
W6.09363111Jul 28vs W6.09866144
W6.09866144Jul 8vs W6.09244211
W6.09244211Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-2 vs SDP this season (4 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 1-4 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-4 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 2.6 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 4.4 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 1-4 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 0-3 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 2-2 vs PIT this season (4 games).
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 3-2 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 4.2 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.8 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 2-3 to the over in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-1 to the over in Michael King's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 1
- PIT bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
Michael King o17.5 Outs (-139)
King has gone 6.0, 6.0 and 6.2 innings over his last 3 starts — 18, 18 and 20 outs — behind a 2.76 xERA and a 5.6% walk rate, and all three of his recent home starts also ran a full six innings. Pittsburgh's 97 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 27.4% K rate is not the profile that runs a count up, and King has already gone six against them once this season. Paying this price buys a number he has cleared in every one of his last three outings, and the market is pricing six innings as barely more likely than not.
CIN @ SFG✓9:45 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
CIN @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brady Singer R
xERA4.97 (below)ERA5.00 (below)K%12.5 (below)Whiff%18.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.7 (avg)Barrel%12.7 (below)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs100BB%5.0 (elite)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+127 (above)K%27.8 (below)Whiff%27.0 (below)HH%49.2 (elite)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%43.2 (above)
Adrian Houser R
xERA3.26 (good)ERA0.56 (elite)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%15.4 (below)
More Stats
HH%43.5 (below)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs16.0 IP/gsH/gs12.0PC/gs80BB%6.5 (good)
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%26.2 (below)Whiff%26.8 (below)HH%37.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%26.6 (below)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%39.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 3.79 (avg)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 2.54 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN-102-1.5 (+160)O7.5 (-110)SFG-105+1.5 (-182)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-102)SFG-112-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-128/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)SFG3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrady Singer4.5 (+116 / -133)17.5 (-125 / +101)Adrian Houser3.5 (-140 / +123)15.5 (+124 / +156)
Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs L6.010335144
L6.010335144Aug 15vs L6.09348233
L6.09348233Aug 9@ L6.010338133
L6.010338133Aug 4vs W6.010165333
W6.010165333Jul 29vs L4.110037444
L4.110037444Adrian Houser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ W5.0*8034200
W5.0*8034200Aug 12vs L6.07352100
L6.07352100Aug 7vs W5.0*8646111
W5.0*8646111Aug 4@ L0.1*200000
L0.1*200000Jul 31@ L4.2*6435111
L4.2*6435111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.01.50elite1.06.00.0(1)
at SFG—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 14vs W6.07516011
W6.07516011Adrian Houser
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN—
home starts6.00.00elite5.02.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs L6.07352100
L6.07352100Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-2 vs SFG this season (4 games).
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Brady Singer's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 4.0 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.2 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 0-2 to the over in Brady Singer's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-2 vs CIN this season (4 games).
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 3-2 in Adrian Houser's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Adrian Houser's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 6.0 runs/game in Adrian Houser's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.8 runs/game in Adrian Houser's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 0-2 to the over in Adrian Houser's last 2 starts.
- SFG are 0-2 to the over in Adrian Houser's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Windy
66°F, Overcast, Wind 17 mph WNW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 10
- CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- CIN — Brady Singer: last start: 103 pitches over 6.0 IP
- SFG — Adrian Houser: 13 days since last start (2026-08-12) news ↗
- SFG — Adrian Houser: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-19, 2026-08-07
- SFG — Adrian Houser: last start: 73 pitches over 6.0 IP
- SFG — Adrian Houser: 2026-06-16: 2 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.29 ERA equivalent
- SFG — Adrian Houser: recent opponents high-K: ATL 25%, HOU 28%
- WEATHER: wind Blowing Out 17 mph from the WNW
- TREND: CIN — was shut out 5-0 last time out (2026-08-24)
SFG Team Total o3.5 (-120)
San Francisco is at a 127 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 games and 121 over its last 12 with a 49.2% hard-hit rate in the shorter window, and Brady Singer brings a 4.97 xERA, a 12.5% K rate and a 12.7% barrel rate over his last 3 starts — he has allowed 8, 8 and 5 hits in those outings while working six innings each time. With the wind blowing out 16 mph, contact he does not miss bats on carries. The number is priced as if Oracle Park suppresses a lineup that is squaring everything up against a pitcher who lets the ball be put in play.