AI Picks · 1 Bet · Oct 11
2u Picks
1u Picks
Tarik Skubal u7.5 Strikeouts (-137)
LAD @ MIL · 8:00 PM ET
Milwaukee's lineup has struck out just 17.1% over its last 6 games vs lefties with a matching 17.4% whiff rate, a genuinely contact-oriented read rather than a process gap that masks more misses. Skubal's 9 and 10-strikeout outings this stretch came against CIN and SFG, teams whose own K rates against him ran 30-38%, well above what this Brewers lineup produces, so his 7.3 K/start average over his last 3 overstates what a contact club like Milwaukee should yield. His head-to-head mark against MIL sits at 7.0 K/gs across 3 starts, including just 5 and 7 strikeouts in his two meetings this season, both below tonight's line. Skubal's own elite 28.6% K% could argue for volume regardless of opponent, but his strikeout totals have tracked the opponent's K-rate all season and MIL simply doesn't miss bats the way his recent foes did, leaving the 7.5 line priced for the wrong opponent.
Found at 10:18 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
LAD @ 
MIL✓8:00 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
LAD @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tarik Skubal L
xERA2.61 (elite)ERA2.50 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)Whiff%34.1 (elite)BB%5.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%28.3 (elite)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs84
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+117 (above)K%17.1 (above)Whiff%17.4 (elite)BB%10.0 (above)HH%45.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+97 (avg)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%8.7 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
J. Misiorowski R
xERA2.56 (elite)ERA1.46 (elite)K%31.9 (elite)Whiff%29.4 (elite)BB%6.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%44.8 (below)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs65
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%18.1 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%11.6 (elite)HH%37.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+119 (above)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%21.5 (avg)BB%9.9 (above)HH%40.2 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 1.35 (elite)ERA 1.30 (elite)
MIL
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 1.77 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-104-1.5 (+172)O6.5 (+114)MIL-112+1.5 (-204)U6.0 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-104+0.5 (-170)O3.5 (+122)MIL-120-0.5 (+130)U3.5 (-160)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD2.5 (-135/+112)1.5 (+124/-160)MIL2.5 (-135/+106)1.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTarik Skubal7.5 (+115 / -137)17.5 (-165 / +125)J. Misiorowski7.5 (+110 / -136)16.5 (-104 / -127)
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
W7.075103000
W7.075103000Sep 19 '26vs W5.08638244
W5.08638244Sep 14 '26@ 
W7.09093100
W7.09093100Sep 8 '26vs W7.19454222
W7.19454222Sep 3 '26vs 
W5.2102610122
W5.2102610122J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs W5.16852200
W5.16852200Sep 20 '26@ 
W3.04441000
W3.04441000Sep 15 '26@ 
W5.08275100
W5.08275100Sep 8 '26vs 
W6.19394211
W6.19394211Sep 2 '26@ W4.09255455
W4.09255455SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.32.37elite7.06.00.7(3)
at MIL7.00.00elite9.04.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16 '26vs L6.010977212
L6.010977212Apr 23 '26vs W6.09457044
W6.09457044Apr 14 '25@ W7.09194000
W7.09194000J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.01.50elite9.04.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26@ W6.09865111
W6.09865111Jul 8 '25vs W6.091124111
W6.091124111home starts5.70.52elite6.73.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs W5.16852200
W5.16852200Sep 8 '26vs W6.19394211
W6.19394211Aug 21 '26vs 
W6.09664200
W6.09664200Trends · LAD
- LAD are 3-4 vs MIL this season (7 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 5-0 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-1 in Tarik Skubal's last 4 away starts.
- LAD average 4.4 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 2.2 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 0-10 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 1-4 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 0-3 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 4-3 vs LAD this season (7 games).
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 5-0 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 0-5 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 0-2 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
65°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph SE
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: 16 days since last start (2026-09-25) news ↗
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: last start: 75 pitches over 7.0 IP news ↗
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: 2026-09-19: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: CIN 38%, SFG 30%, SFG 30%
- MIL — J. Misiorowski: 14 days since last start (2026-09-27) news ↗
- MIL — J. Misiorowski: last start: 68 pitches over 5.1 IP news ↗
- MIL — J. Misiorowski: recent opponents high-K: PIT 27%, BAL 29%, STL 32%
Tarik Skubal u7.5 Strikeouts (-137)
Milwaukee's lineup has struck out just 17.1% over its last 6 games vs lefties with a matching 17.4% whiff rate, a genuinely contact-oriented read rather than a process gap that masks more misses. Skubal's 9 and 10-strikeout outings this stretch came against CIN and SFG, teams whose own K rates against him ran 30-38%, well above what this Brewers lineup produces, so his 7.3 K/start average over his last 3 overstates what a contact club like Milwaukee should yield. His head-to-head mark against MIL sits at 7.0 K/gs across 3 starts, including just 5 and 7 strikeouts in his two meetings this season, both below tonight's line. Skubal's own elite 28.6% K% could argue for volume regardless of opponent, but his strikeout totals have tracked the opponent's K-rate all season and MIL simply doesn't miss bats the way his recent foes did, leaving the 7.5 line priced for the wrong opponent.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.