AI Picks · 1 2u · 5 Bets · Sep 12
2u Picks
STL Team Total o3.5 (-142)2u
CHW @ STL · 7:16 PM ET
STL's offense has been elite vs RHP, running a 135 wRC+ over its last 6 games and 116 over its last 12 — the same hot form corroborated by both windows. Chicago is using an opener in front of Luis Castillo, whose bulk-arm line over his last 3 starts is an 11.81 ERA on just 3.6 innings per outing, and the White Sox bullpen is already stressed at 11.0 innings over its last two days. A dominant, consistent offense facing a short, battered pitching staff with a tired bullpen behind it should clear 3.5 runs well more often than the priced 55%.
Found at 12:40 PM ET
1u Picks
PHI @ ATL F5 u3.5 (+110)
PHI @ ATL · 7:16 PM ET
Luzardo carries a 0.40 ERA and 2.41 xERA over his last 3 starts, including a 9K/0ER shutout of this same Atlanta lineup 5 days ago, and Atlanta has been one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties at -30 wRC+ over its last 6 games and -12 over its last 12 - a rare case where both windows agree the weakness is real, not a blip. Mahle has been just as sharp on the other side, running a 1.05 ERA and 3.23 xERA over his last 3 with a scoreless 6IP start against Philadelphia six days ago, and Philadelphia's own bat is cold at 73 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP. With both starters missing bats and dominant recently and both lineups struggling against the specific hand they face today, a first-five total of 3.5 is priced too close to a coin flip for how suppressed this game profiles.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Kyle Bradish Outs u16.5 (-101)
BAL @ TOR · 3:08 PM ET
Bradish has gone 4.1, 5.0, and 4.0 innings in his last 3 starts, never within three outs of this 16.5 line, while walking batters at a 12.3% clip over that stretch that has repeatedly ballooned his pitch counts and ended outings early (91, 95, and 85 pitches for outings that short). Toronto's lineup hits for a strong 121 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6 games with a well-above-average 43.9% hard-hit rate, giving him little margin to work deep into a game he has consistently failed to reach even against weaker offenses. The market's own no-vig price still leans toward the over at 53%, which does not match a starter who has not cleared 15 outs in any of his last three outings.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
Randy Dobnak Outs o15.5 (+112)
KCR @ BOS · 4:11 PM ET
Dobnak has thrown exactly 6.0 innings in each of his last 3 starts, including the outing where he allowed 6 earned runs, showing his manager keeps him in regardless of results - a pattern that clears this 15.5 line by 2.5 outs every time it has come up recently. Boston's bullpen carries some scoring punch at home but Dobnak's low walk rate (4.1% BB over his last 3) keeps his pitch counts efficient, and nothing in his recent workload points to an early hook. The market prices the under as the favorite here at 56% no-vig despite a starter who has not failed to reach 18 outs in his last three tries.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
BOS -1.5 (+105)
KCR @ BOS · 4:11 PM ET
KCR's offense has collapsed against left-handed pitching, posting a 26 wRC+ over their last 6 games and just 73 over their last 12 vs LHP, with hard-hit rate cratering to 5.6% last 6. Boston's own offense sits at a healthy 103 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP (111 last 12), and the club has scored 7.8 runs per game at home over its last 5 starts. The no-vig price implies BOS covers -1.5 only 48% of the time, which undersells the gap between a hot home offense and a lineup that has stopped hitting left-handers entirely.
Found at 12:40 PM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
COL @ 
DET1:10 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
COL @ DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tanner Gordon R
xERA2.90 (elite)ERA3.78 (avg)K%17.6 (avg)Whiff%19.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs76BB%2.9 (elite)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+93 (below)K%28.9 (poor)BB%12.2 (elite)Whiff%28.6 (poor)HH%31.5 (below)
L12
wRC+76 (poor)K%28.3 (poor)BB%9.1 (avg)Whiff%28.2 (poor)HH%38.2 (avg)
Andrew Sears L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+69 (poor)K%22.2 (avg)BB%10.1 (above)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%26.5 (poor)
L12
wRC+82 (below)K%25.0 (below)BB%7.5 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%31.0 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.73 (below)ERA 6.02 (poor)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 4.91 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+140+1.5 (-155)O8.5 (+100)DET-165-1.5 (+140)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+128+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-135)DET-160-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-115/-108)1.5 (-154/+120)DET4.5 (-102/-120)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTanner Gordon3.5 (-140 / +120)15.5 (-108 / -113)Andrew Sears——
Tanner Gordon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L4.087510144
L4.087510144Sep 6 '26vs 
L4.28048155
L4.28048155Aug 31 '26vs 
L5.06033111
L5.06033111Aug 26 '26@ 
W7.09056011
W7.09056011Aug 21 '26vs 
L5.18229255
L5.18229255Andrew Sears · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W4.17757144
W4.17757144Sep 4 '26@ L5.29344211
L5.29344211Aug 29 '26vs 
W2.2*4212000
W2.2*4212000Aug 23 '26@ 
L4.0*7436155
L4.0*7436155SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Gordon
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.07.13poor4.59.51.0(2)
at DET4.09.00poor5.010.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L4.087510144
L4.087510144May 8 '25vs L6.18949147
L6.18949147Andrew Sears
IPERAKHBB
vs COL4.18.78poor5.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W4.17757144
W4.17757144home starts4.18.78poor5.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W4.17757144
W4.17757144Trends · COL
- COL are 0-2 vs DET this season (2 games).
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- COL have lost 5 straight.
- COL are 2-3 in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-1 in Tanner Gordon's last 3 away starts.
- COL average 5.4 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL average 6.7 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-2 to the over in Tanner Gordon's last 4 starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-0 vs COL this season (2 games).
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 0-1 in Andrew Sears's last 1 starts.
- DET average 3.0 runs/game in Andrew Sears's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- DET — Andrew Sears: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- COL — Tanner Gordon: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15, 2026-08-09
- COL — Tanner Gordon: 2026-09-06: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.54 ERA equivalent
- DET — Andrew Sears: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-29, 2026-08-23
AI Analysis
Gordon has pitched well recently but Detroit's own offense is weak against right-handers at just 70 wRC+, largely canceling out any side or total edge, and Colorado's own bats are below average against lefties too. Detroit's starter Andrew Sears has no stats this season to build a prop case on, and Gordon's K and outs lines already sit close to his recent production, leaving nothing to bet on either arm.
NYM @ 
NYY1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly
NYM @ NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Zac Thornton L
xERA3.65 (good)ERA5.06 (below)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%17.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs87BB%1.5 (elite)
NYY vs LHP
L6
wRC+262 (elite)K%14.7 (elite)BB%20.6 (elite)Whiff%13.0 (elite)HH%31.8 (below)
L12
wRC+165 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)BB%8.9 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%36.5 (avg)
Gerrit Cole R
xERA4.90 (below)ERA4.91 (below)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%22.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.8 (poor)Barrel%13.1 (below)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs84BB%2.6 (elite)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+190 (elite)K%15.5 (elite)BB%12.6 (elite)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%39.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+156 (elite)K%17.4 (above)BB%9.9 (above)Whiff%21.6 (avg)HH%41.1 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 4.13 (avg)ERA 5.96 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 5.18 (below)ERA 3.76 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+141+1.5 (-151)O8.5 (+104)NYY-164-1.5 (+130)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+138+0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-108)NYY-174-0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-106/-115)1.5 (-120/-110)NYY4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZac Thornton4.5 (+127 / +125)15.5 (+136 / -168)Gerrit Cole5.5 (-111 / -110)17.5 (-146 / +112)
Zac Thornton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ W7.08145122
W7.08145122Sep 5 '26vs 
L5.08267166
L5.08267166Aug 30 '26vs 
L5.09756022
L5.09756022Aug 25 '26vs 
W6.08947011
W6.08947011Aug 18 '26vs 
L5.09977133
L5.09977133Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs L4.17749055
L4.17749055Sep 6 '26@ L7.08436044
L7.08436044Sep 1 '26@ 
W5.19058133
W5.19058133Aug 27 '26vs L6.07956133
L6.07956133Aug 20 '26@ W6.09384111
W6.09384111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zac Thornton
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY7.02.57elite4.05.01.0(1)
at NYY7.02.57elite4.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ W7.08145122
W7.08145122Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM4.110.98poor4.09.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs L4.17749055
L4.17749055home starts5.75.26poor6.07.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs L4.17749055
L4.17749055Aug 27 '26vs L6.07956133
L6.07956133Aug 8 '26vs 
W7.08296022
W7.08296022Trends · NYM
- NYM are 3-2 vs NYY this season (5 games).
- NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 1-4 in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-2 in Zac Thornton's last 4 away starts.
- NYM average 3.2 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.2 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 2-3 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-0 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-3 vs NYM this season (5 games).
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY have won 4 straight.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.6 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-1 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
80°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 8 mph SSE
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- NYY bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.18 over its last 12
- NYY bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
- NYM — Zac Thornton: 2026-09-05: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.55 ERA equivalent
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: recent opponents high-K: HOU 25%, LAA 31%
AI Analysis
New York's Yankees offense has been red-hot against lefties at 212 wRC+ over its last 6 games and that's already baked into a lopsided spread and moneyline, leaving no side value, while the total sits close to fair given Cole's rough recent form being offset by Thornton's shaky control-independent outings. Both starters' K and outs props are already priced near their recent performance levels with no head-to-head data to lean on either way.
PIT @ 
CHC2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
PIT @ CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Paul Skenes R
xERA3.46 (good)ERA2.81 (elite)K%14.9 (below)Whiff%21.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.7 (good)Barrel%3.9 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%6.0 (good)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%18.9 (above)BB%9.7 (above)Whiff%16.2 (elite)HH%41.9 (above)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%19.1 (above)BB%10.4 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%40.0 (above)
Clay Holmes R
xERA3.67 (good)ERA4.15 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs94BB%9.9 (avg)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%12.4 (elite)BB%6.6 (below)Whiff%17.6 (elite)HH%51.8 (elite)
L12
wRC+109 (avg)K%17.6 (above)BB%9.5 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%44.3 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 4.37 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.02 (avg)ERA 4.29 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+109-1.5 (+155)O9.5 (-105)CHC-124-1.5 (+151)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+100+0.5 (-140)O5.5 (+110)CHC-120-0.5 (+108)U5.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT4.5 (-110/-115)2.5 (+114/-145)CHC4.5 (-115/+100)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes5.5 (+115 / -138)15.5 (+114 / -135)Clay Holmes4.5 (+108 / -136)16.5 (+108 / -120)
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L7.08244122
L7.08244122Sep 6 '26vs W5.18724100
W5.18724100Sep 1 '26vs W4.29548355
W4.29548355Aug 25 '26@ W6.08743000
W6.08743000Aug 19 '26vs W4.18154433
W4.18154433Clay Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W5.210065423
W5.210065423Sep 6 '26@ 
L4.18026388
L4.18026388Aug 31 '26vs W6.010185200
W6.010185200Aug 25 '26@ 
L7.09352200
L7.09352200Aug 19 '26vs 
L5.18616211
L5.18616211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.74.19avg8.34.72.0(3)
at CHC6.01.50elite4.54.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L7.08244122
L7.08244122Jul 25 '26vs L5.1105116255
L5.1105116255May 28 '26vs L5.1103104313
L5.1103104313Jun 13 '25@ W5.09554200
W5.09554200Clay Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.64.82below5.06.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W5.210065423
W5.210065423May 14 '25vs L6.09047144
L6.09047144home starts5.41.66elite5.05.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W5.210065423
W5.210065423Aug 31 '26vs W6.010185200
W6.010185200Aug 19 '26vs L5.18616211
L5.18616211Trends · PIT
- PIT are 5-7 vs CHC this season (12 games).
- PIT are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 4-1 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 3.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.4 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 1-4 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 0-3 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 7-5 vs PIT this season (12 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 2-3 in Clay Holmes's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-1 in Clay Holmes's last 3 home starts.
- CHC average 5.4 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 6.7 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 3-2 to the over in Clay Holmes's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-2 to the over in Clay Holmes's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
87°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph SW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- PIT bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-09-01: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- CHC — Clay Holmes: 2026-09-06: 8 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 18); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- CHC — Clay Holmes: low-K outing 2026-09-06 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- CHC — Clay Holmes: recent opponents low-K: ARI 19%, MIA 19%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Skenes' overall last-3-start strikeout rate has fallen to just 3.3 per start, but he has punched out 10 and 11 batters in his last two meetings with this exact Cubs lineup, and those conflicting reads on the same prop leave no confident side to take. Holmes is average across the board and Chicago's own strikeout rate runs ahead of what its whiff rate supports, muddying his K prop too, while the side and total sit close to fair given two average-to-good starters facing two average offenses.
BAL @ 
TOR✓3:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
BAL @ TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Bradish R
xERA4.02 (avg)ERA6.08 (poor)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%18.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs79BB%12.3 (below)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+120 (above)K%17.9 (above)BB%5.8 (poor)Whiff%16.8 (elite)HH%40.7 (above)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)BB%8.5 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%38.9 (avg)
S. Arrighetti RO
xERA5.70 (poor)ERA8.03 (poor)K%15.5 (below)Whiff%24.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs68BB%10.3 (below)
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+90 (below)K%24.5 (below)BB%7.7 (below)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%23.5 (avg)BB%7.5 (below)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.89 (elite)ERA 3.00 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 2.03 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL—+3.5 (+410)O10.5 (+188)TOR—-4.5 (+475)U10.5 (-128)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-115-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-120)TOR-106+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (-135/+106)2.5 (+120/-154)TOR4.5 (+114/+120)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Bradish3.5 (-120 / +108)16.5 (-112 / -108)S. Arrighetti——
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L3.05628255
L3.05628255Sep 6 '26vs 
L4.08532403
L4.08532403Sep 1 '26@ L5.09546222
L5.09546222Aug 26 '26@ W4.19149277
W4.19149277Aug 20 '26vs L5.210058235
L5.210058235S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W2.2*5022201
W2.2*5022201Sep 6 '26@ L4.29136366
L4.29136366Sep 1 '26@ L3.2*6222122
L3.2*6222122Aug 27 '26vs L4.07945234
L4.07945234Aug 21 '26@ L3.1*6143233
L3.1*6143233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.76.43poor3.07.02.7(3)
at TOR3.512.86poor2.58.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L3.05628255
L3.05628255Jun 6 '26@ L4.08139355
L4.08139355May 31 '26vs W7.09444301
W7.09444301S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.12.65elite4.03.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18 '26vs L5.08561411
L5.08561411Aug 24 '25@ L5.29726022
L5.29726022home starts4.54.00avg5.03.03.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs L4.07945234
L4.07945234Jul 18 '26vs L5.08561411
L5.08561411Trends · BAL
- BAL are 4-4 vs TOR this season (8 games).
- BAL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 2-3 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 3.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 4.6 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 4-4 vs BAL this season (8 games).
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 0-2 in S. Arrighetti's last 2 starts.
- TOR are 0-1 in S. Arrighetti's last 1 home starts.
- TOR average 1.5 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 2 starts.
- TOR average 2.0 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-1 to the over in S. Arrighetti's last 3 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph E
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- OPENER: TOR start Spencer Miles (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.5 IP (longest 2.0)), with S. Arrighetti (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — BAL's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: Whiff% 24.5 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 15.5 shows
- BAL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- TOR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: 2026-08-26: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01, 2026-08-21
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: recent opponents low-K: KCR 15%, KCR 15%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Kyle Bradish Outs u16.5 (-101)
Bradish has gone 4.1, 5.0, and 4.0 innings in his last 3 starts, never within three outs of this 16.5 line, while walking batters at a 12.3% clip over that stretch that has repeatedly ballooned his pitch counts and ended outings early (91, 95, and 85 pitches for outings that short). Toronto's lineup hits for a strong 121 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6 games with a well-above-average 43.9% hard-hit rate, giving him little margin to work deep into a game he has consistently failed to reach even against weaker offenses. The market's own no-vig price still leans toward the over at 53%, which does not match a starter who has not cleared 15 outs in any of his last three outings.
LAA @ WSN4:05 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
LAA @ WSNMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Walbert Urena R
xERA3.67 (good)ERA2.41 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.2 (below)Barrel%5.8 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs95BB%8.2 (avg)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+48 (poor)K%27.5 (below)BB%9.2 (avg)Whiff%26.3 (below)HH%45.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+74 (poor)K%23.9 (avg)BB%9.3 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%41.3 (above)
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA3.45 (good)ERA3.60 (good)K%27.4 (good)Whiff%19.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.6 (good)Barrel%7.9 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%11.3 (below)
LAA vs LHP
L6
wRC+186 (elite)K%19.5 (above)BB%7.3 (below)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%54.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%23.1 (avg)BB%6.0 (poor)Whiff%25.1 (below)HH%47.1 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 4.76 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 4.50 (below)ERA 7.97 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+1700+4.5 (-205)O5.5 (-125)WSN-5000-4.5 (+165)U5.5 (+114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+100)WSN-120-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (-130/+108)1.5 (-145/+114)WSN3.5 (-145/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalbert Urena4.5 (-128 / +102)17.5 (+120 / -116)Andrew Alvarez5.5 (+114 / -142)14.5 (-130 / +105)
Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L6.010179244
L6.010179244Sep 6 '26@ L8.08843111
L8.08843111Aug 31 '26vs W7.09585011
W7.09585011Aug 25 '26vs L3.28935533
L3.28935533Aug 19 '26@ L5.09473233
L5.09473233Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W7.09781400
W7.09781400Sep 6 '26@ L4.17854233
L4.17854233Aug 30 '26vs L6.09762300
L6.09762300Aug 25 '26vs L4.28165233
L4.28165233Aug 20 '26@ 
L5.07554311
L5.07554311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Walbert Urena
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN6.06.00poor7.09.02.0(1)
at WSN6.06.00poor7.09.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L6.010179244
L6.010179244Andrew Alvarez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA7.00.00elite8.01.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W7.09781400
W7.09781400home starts5.71.57elite6.72.73.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W7.09781400
W7.09781400Aug 30 '26vs L6.09762300
L6.09762300Aug 25 '26vs L4.28165233
L4.28165233Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 2-3 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-4 in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 3.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 2-3 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-2 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 3 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 0-5 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 1.8 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.2 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 1-4 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- LAA — Walbert Urena: 2026-08-25: 3 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 8); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.21 ERA equivalent
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: last start: 78 pitches over 4.1 IP news ↗
AI Analysis
Both starters project as roughly average arms (Urena 3.67 xERA, Alvarez 3.45 xERA) with the total and side both sitting close to a fair number given Washington's weak offense vs RHP (48 wRC+ last 6) offsetting Anaheim's hot one vs LHP (186 last 6, though only 127 last 12, a gap that reads as a streak rather than form). Neither pitcher's K or outs prop shows a lineup/rate mismatch large enough to clear a real edge — Urena's K number already reflects his strong recent form and Alvarez's outs line matches his own shallow recent length.
SDP @ SFG4:05 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
SDP @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Michael King R
xERA3.95 (avg)ERA0.00 (elite)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs91BB%10.5 (below)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+85 (below)K%21.7 (avg)BB%7.0 (below)Whiff%23.0 (avg)HH%33.0 (below)
L12
wRC+117 (above)K%20.8 (avg)BB%11.0 (elite)Whiff%20.4 (above)HH%33.6 (below)
Cesar Perdomo L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SDP vs LHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%22.0 (avg)BB%11.9 (elite)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%43.6 (above)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%21.4 (avg)BB%10.0 (above)Whiff%20.9 (above)HH%41.7 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.02 (elite)ERA 2.50 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 4.01 (avg)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-1800-3.5 (+127)O11.5 (+110)SFG+1200+3.5 (-132)U10.5 (+121)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-174-0.5 (-120)O4.5 (+102)SFG+140+0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-132)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP4.5 (-106/-115)2.5 (+110/-140)SFG3.5 (+120/-150)1.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael King4.5 (-107 / -106)17.5 (-125 / +100)Cesar Perdomo3.5 (-136 / +109)15.5 (+124 / -166)
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ W6.08243033
W6.08243033Sep 6 '26vs W6.09634300
W6.09634300Aug 31 '26@ 
W6.09664300
W6.09664300Aug 25 '26vs L7.09875200
L7.09875200Aug 19 '26@ L6.210044222
L6.210044222Cesar Perdomo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs L4.274310255
L4.274310255Sep 6 '26@ L6.08343100
L6.08343100Sep 1 '26@ L4.0*5843111
L4.0*5843111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.63.21good5.03.00.5(2)
at SFG6.04.50below4.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ W6.08243033
W6.08243033Apr 30 '25vs W5.29163111
W5.29163111Cesar Perdomo
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP4.210.71poor3.010.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs L4.274310255
L4.274310255home starts4.210.71poor3.010.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs L4.274310255
L4.274310255Trends · SDP
- SDP are 7-4 vs SFG this season (11 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have won 5 straight.
- SDP are 3-2 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 3.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.2 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 2-3 to the over in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Michael King's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-7 vs SDP this season (11 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 0-1 in Cesar Perdomo's last 1 starts.
- SFG average 2.0 runs/game in Cesar Perdomo's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
68°F, Clear, Wind 13 mph W
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- SFG — Cesar Perdomo: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SDP bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- SFG bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- SFG — Cesar Perdomo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)
AI Analysis
Cesar Perdomo has no stats this season, ruling out any bet built on his side of the game or his props. San Diego is favored heavily (-176) off a strong King start, but with the opposing arm a total unknown the true win probability is too uncertain to claim a clear edge over the market's number, and King's own props are already priced close to fair given his consistent recent length and strikeout output.
KCR @ BOS✓4:10 PM · Fenway ParkNeutral Conditions
KCR @ BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.38 (avg)ERA5.00 (below)K%19.2 (avg)Whiff%18.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs84BB%4.1 (elite)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+103 (avg)K%23.7 (avg)BB%10.7 (above)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%33.6 (below)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)BB%8.4 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Ranger Suarez L
xERA3.92 (avg)ERA3.63 (good)K%11.8 (poor)Whiff%13.1 (below)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.8 (avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs96BB%9.2 (avg)
KCR vs LHP
L6
wRC+26 (poor)K%31.7 (poor)BB%24.4 (elite)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%5.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%25.6 (below)BB%12.4 (elite)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%33.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.38 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 4.05 (avg)ERA 5.49 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+1060+2.5 (-138)O5.5 (-110)BOS-1800-2.5 (+124)U5.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+168+0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-108)BOS-215-0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (+105/-125)1.5 (-110/-120)BOS4.5 (-128/+105)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URandy Dobnak3.5 (+118 / -148)15.5 (+130 / -158)Ranger Suarez4.5 (-132 / +123)17.5 (-124 / +100)
Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L5.28144033
L5.28144033Sep 6 '26vs W6.08334011
W6.08334011Sep 1 '26vs L6.08767266
L6.08767266Aug 26 '26@ L6.09256133
L6.09256133Aug 20 '26vs 
W4.09646400
W4.09646400Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W7.09685011
W7.09685011Sep 4 '26@ W7.09135100
W7.09135100Aug 30 '26@ L5.110129266
L5.110129266Aug 24 '26@ W5.09344411
W5.09344411Aug 18 '26vs W5.19334244
W5.19334244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Randy Dobnak
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.25.19below4.04.00.0(1)
at BOS5.25.19below4.04.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L5.28144033
L5.28144033Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.51.62elite5.54.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W7.09685011
W7.09685011May 19 '26@ W4.18134311
W4.18134311home starts5.04.77below4.74.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W7.09685011
W7.09685011Aug 18 '26vs W5.19334244
W5.19334244Aug 6 '26vs W3.07033234
W3.07033234Trends · KCR
- KCR are 1-3 vs BOS this season (4 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-3 in Randy Dobnak's last 4 away starts.
- KCR average 3.0 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 1.8 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 0-3 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-1 vs KCR this season (4 games).
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 5-0 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 3.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 7.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 3-2 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph E
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- KCR offense: K% 31.7 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 22.8 supports
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: 2026-09-01: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.00 ERA equivalent
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: recent opponents low-K: TOR 18%, MIA 19%, TOR 18%
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-08-30: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: recent opponents high-K: MIA 28%, BAL 41%
Randy Dobnak Outs o15.5 (+112)
Dobnak has thrown exactly 6.0 innings in each of his last 3 starts, including the outing where he allowed 6 earned runs, showing his manager keeps him in regardless of results - a pattern that clears this 15.5 line by 2.5 outs every time it has come up recently. Boston's bullpen carries some scoring punch at home but Dobnak's low walk rate (4.1% BB over his last 3) keeps his pitch counts efficient, and nothing in his recent workload points to an early hook. The market prices the under as the favorite here at 56% no-vig despite a starter who has not failed to reach 18 outs in his last three tries.
BOS -1.5 (+105)
KCR's offense has collapsed against left-handed pitching, posting a 26 wRC+ over their last 6 games and just 73 over their last 12 vs LHP, with hard-hit rate cratering to 5.6% last 6. Boston's own offense sits at a healthy 103 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP (111 last 12), and the club has scored 7.8 runs per game at home over its last 5 starts. The no-vig price implies BOS covers -1.5 only 48% of the time, which undersells the gap between a hot home offense and a lineup that has stopped hitting left-handers entirely.
CLE @ 
MIN4:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
CLE @ MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Joey Cantillo LO
xERA6.35 (poor)ERA6.59 (poor)K%14.3 (below)Whiff%17.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs69BB%20.0 (poor)
MIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+47 (poor)K%25.0 (below)BB%5.4 (poor)Whiff%18.2 (above)HH%34.4 (below)
L12
wRC+62 (poor)K%23.7 (avg)BB%3.7 (poor)Whiff%19.5 (above)HH%38.3 (avg)
Connor Prielipp L
xERA2.84 (elite)ERA3.14 (good)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%26.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs14.3 IP/gsH/gs14.0PC/gs73BB%3.4 (elite)
CLE vs LHP
L6
wRC+38 (poor)K%17.7 (above)BB%1.3 (poor)Whiff%17.1 (elite)HH%25.4 (poor)
L12
wRC+71 (poor)K%18.1 (above)BB%5.6 (poor)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%29.6 (poor)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.29 (elite)ERA 1.76 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 3.42 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+250+1.5 (-198)O9.5 (-110)MIN-297-1.5 (+165)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-104+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-108)MIN-115-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE4.5 (+114/+112)2.5 (+124/-160)MIN3.5 (-130/+110)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJoey Cantillo——Connor Prielipp4.5 (+124 / -150)14.5 (-135 / +110)
Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L2.1*3241000
L2.1*3241000Sep 7 '26@ L2.17233544
L2.17233544Sep 2 '26vs L5.110269249
L5.110269249Aug 26 '26@ W6.09212723
W6.09212723Aug 21 '26@ W4.28954411
W4.28954411Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W5.17715033
W5.17715033Sep 7 '26@ L4.0*6855022
L4.0*6855022Sep 1 '26vs W5.0*7353100
W5.0*7353100Aug 26 '26@ L5.17856133
L5.17856133Aug 21 '26@ L6.09678266
L6.09678266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.50.99elite6.05.02.5(2)
at MIN4.50.99elite6.05.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7 '26@ L5.09476302
L5.09476302Sep 21 '25@ L4.17554211
L4.17554211Connor Prielipp
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.04.17avg4.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W5.17715033
W5.17715033Jul 8 '26vs W5.08364233
W5.08364233May 8 '26@ L5.09364214
L5.09364214home starts5.09.80poor3.56.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W5.17715033
W5.17715033Aug 15 '26vs 
L5.09468488
L5.09468488Trends · CLE
- CLE are 5-6 vs MIN this season (11 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 4.6 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.2 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 1-4 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 6-5 vs CLE this season (11 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 0-5 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 2.6 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.4 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 4-1 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-0 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- OPENER: CLE start Daniel Espino (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.3 IP (longest 2.0)), with Joey Cantillo (LHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — MIN's offense line is split against LHP, not the opener's.
- MIN offense: K% 25.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 18.2 supports
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: last start: 72 pitches over 2.1 IP news ↗
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: 17 days since last start (2026-08-26) news ↗
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-07, 2026-09-01
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: last start: 78 pitches over 5.1 IP news ↗
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: recent opponents low-K: PHI 18%, ATH 18%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
AI Analysis
Minnesota's bulk-innings matchup is muddled by the opener format on Cleveland's side, and Prielipp is excellent (2.84 xERA) but faces a Cleveland offense that is ice cold vs LHP (38 wRC+ last 6, 71 last 12) while Minnesota's own bats are similarly cold vs LHP (47 last 6), leaving no side of the total clearly mispriced. Prielipp's K prop already reflects his strong recent strikeout rate against a low-K opponent, and Cantillo's extreme walk rate makes his own props too unstable to trust at the posted numbers.
LAD @ MIA4:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
LAD @ MIAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Glasnow R
xERA2.58 (elite)ERA4.00 (avg)K%29.6 (elite)Whiff%29.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%41.3 (below)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs91BB%5.6 (good)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+146 (elite)K%18.6 (above)BB%10.4 (above)Whiff%21.3 (avg)HH%46.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+138 (elite)K%20.1 (avg)BB%9.6 (above)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%41.0 (above)
Tyler Phillips R
xERA2.89 (elite)ERA2.45 (elite)K%24.6 (good)Whiff%27.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.7 (elite)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs71BB%10.5 (below)
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%21.4 (avg)BB%11.4 (elite)Whiff%17.8 (elite)HH%37.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)BB%11.2 (elite)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%39.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 2.77 (elite)ERA 3.82 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 5.66 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD+460+2.5 (-106)O10.5 (-133)MIA-620-2.5 (-120)U10.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-188-0.5 (-125)O4.5 (+108)MIA+165+0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (-104/-110)2.5 (+100/-130)MIA3.5 (+122/-154)1.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Glasnow7.5 (+126 / -150)17.5 (-148 / +113)Tyler Phillips3.5 (-133 / +106)14.5 (+104 / +124)
Tyler Glasnow · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L4.09175444
L4.09175444Sep 5 '26vs W6.09686344
W6.09686344Aug 30 '26@ W7.08562111
W7.08562111Aug 25 '26@ L5.08976033
L5.08976033May 6 '26@ W1.01921011
W1.01921011Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W3.26832322
W3.26832322Sep 6 '26vs W5.07635133
W5.07635133Sep 1 '26@ W5.06941200
W5.06941200Aug 25 '26vs L4.28473311
L4.28473311Aug 18 '26@ L2.0*4232211
L2.0*4232211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Glasnow
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA4.65.87poor8.04.05.0(2)
at MIA4.09.00poor7.05.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26@ L4.09175444
L4.09175444Apr 29 '26vs L5.29293622
L5.29293622Tyler Phillips
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD3.25.62poor3.02.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W3.26832322
W3.26832322home starts4.14.35avg4.33.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 12 '26vs W3.26832322
W3.26832322Sep 6 '26vs W5.07635133
W5.07635133Aug 25 '26vs L4.28473311
L4.28473311Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-2 vs MIA this season (4 games).
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD have won 8 straight.
- LAD are 3-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 5.8 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 6.2 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 1-2 to the over in Tyler Glasnow's last 3 starts.
- LAD are 0-2 to the over in Tyler Glasnow's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-2 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA have lost 4 straight.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 4.6 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.0 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 5-0 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-0 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- LAD offense: K% 21.4 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 17.8 supports
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: recent opponents high-K: DET 29%, WSN 27%
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: last start: 76 pitches over 5.0 IP news ↗
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent opponents low-K: KCR 15%, CHC 19%
AI Analysis
Glasnow (2.58 xERA) and Phillips (2.89 xERA) are both pitching well, and the moneyline already prices the Dodgers' clear edge at 63%, leaving little room on the side; the total is fairly priced given two competent starters and two hot-but-hand-neutral offenses. Glasnow's K prop at 7.5 asks for a top-end outing even for him, and Phillips' modest recent strikeout output against a patient Dodgers lineup doesn't clear his own line by enough to bet either pitcher's props.
HOU @ 
TBR6:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
HOU @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Peter Lambert R
xERA4.69 (below)ERA3.63 (good)K%21.5 (avg)Whiff%26.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%25.5 (elite)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs101BB%10.1 (below)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+143 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)BB%8.4 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%18.9 (above)BB%6.9 (below)Whiff%21.6 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Ian Seymour L
xERA3.03 (good)ERA5.40 (poor)K%26.2 (good)Whiff%28.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.9 (good)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs7.5 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs84BB%1.5 (elite)
HOU vs LHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%20.0 (avg)BB%7.1 (below)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%35.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+118 (above)K%20.1 (avg)BB%6.9 (below)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%34.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 3.50 (good)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 4.14 (avg)2d stress Fresh (3.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+126+1.5 (-170)O7.5 (-114)TBR-145-1.5 (+145)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+124+0.5 (-125)O4.5 (+116)TBR-152-0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU3.5 (-104/-120)1.5 (-120/-110)TBR3.5 (-146/+120)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPeter Lambert4.5 (+130 / -156)16.5 (-123 / -106)Ian Seymour5.5 (+100 / -103)16.5 (-104 / -126)
Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs L7.09867033
L7.09867033Aug 31 '26vs W4.210463522
W4.210463522Aug 26 '26@ L5.210257323
L5.210257323Aug 20 '26vs L3.27938299
L3.27938299Aug 14 '26vs 
W5.09664222
W5.09664222Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@ L3.07525134
L3.07525134Aug 31 '26vs L6.188106033
L6.188106033Aug 25 '26@ L5.2*8857034
L5.2*8857034Aug 20 '26vs L5.09086133
L5.09086133Aug 15 '26vs L6.09396133
L6.09396133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.20.00elite6.03.01.0(1)
at TBR—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5 '26vs W5.29063100
W5.29063100Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU—
home starts5.74.74below9.06.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs L6.188106033
L6.188106033Aug 20 '26vs L5.09086133
L5.09086133Aug 15 '26vs L6.09396133
L6.09396133Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-2 vs TBR this season (4 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 2-3 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 4.8 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 4-1 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-1 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 2 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 2-2 vs HOU this season (4 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 1-4 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-4 in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 3.2 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 2.8 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 0-5 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 0-3 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 5
- HOU bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
- TBR bullpen fresh (3.7 IP over 2g)
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-25
- TBR — Ian Seymour: last start: 75 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- TBR — Ian Seymour: low-K outing 2026-09-06 (2 Ks vs avg 6.7 over his last 3)
AI Analysis
Both Lambert and Seymour have been generally solid but inconsistent (Seymour's last start was a 3-inning, 2-strikeout dud), and with Tampa's elite recent wRC+ vs RHP (143 last 6) offset by a below-average Houston bullpen situation and a stressed one of their own, neither side nor total stands out from the posted numbers. Lambert's K and outs lines are already priced fairly given his own recent workload, and Seymour's K line already accounts for his recent low-strikeout outing without offering value on either side.
CIN @ MIL7:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
CIN @ MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brady Singer R
xERA6.01 (poor)ERA7.80 (poor)K%17.3 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%59.6 (poor)Barrel%9.6 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs92BB%10.7 (below)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+162 (elite)K%24.3 (below)BB%13.9 (elite)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%47.8 (elite)
L12
wRC+145 (elite)K%25.5 (below)BB%11.7 (elite)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%47.6 (elite)
Shane Drohan L
xERA3.61 (good)ERA5.79 (poor)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%27.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%10.3 (avg)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs87BB%9.5 (avg)
CIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+151 (elite)K%22.6 (avg)BB%11.9 (elite)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%43.6 (above)
L12
wRC+139 (elite)K%24.7 (below)BB%11.4 (elite)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%41.5 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 4.58 (below)ERA 7.18 (poor)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 4.05 (avg)ERA 5.03 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+178+1.5 (-115)O9.0 (+100)MIL-198-1.5 (+106)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+142+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-122)MIL-180-0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-102/-120)1.5 (-135/+105)MIL4.5 (-120/+110)2.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrady Singer4.5 (-102 / -119)15.5 (+110 / +128)Shane Drohan5.5 (-123 / +100)14.5 (-171 / +128)
Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs W5.09734666
W5.09734666Aug 31 '26vs L4.187510044
L4.187510044Aug 25 '26@ L5.29156233
L5.29156233Aug 20 '26vs L6.010335144
L6.010335144Aug 15 '26vs L6.09348233
L6.09348233Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 4 '26@ W4.07855266
W4.07855266Aug 29 '26vs W5.09966111
W5.09966111Aug 23 '26vs L5.08358322
L5.08358322Aug 18 '26vs W2.0*3911200
W2.0*3911200Aug 13 '26@ W5.18553333
W5.18553333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.05.36poor5.03.73.0(3)
at MIL4.06.67poor6.07.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs W5.09734666
W5.09734666Jun 22 '26vs L7.010672200
L7.010672200Sep 28 '25@ L3.17155133
L3.17155133Apr 5 '25@ W5.09179135
W5.09179135Shane Drohan
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.45.41poor5.75.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 4 '26@ W4.07855266
W4.07855266Jul 1 '26vs W5.27876122
W5.27876122Jun 24 '26@ W4.19855300
W4.19855300home starts5.02.70elite5.57.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs W5.09966111
W5.09966111Aug 23 '26vs L5.08358322
L5.08358322Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-8 vs MIL this season (11 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN have lost 4 straight.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Brady Singer's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 5.2 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 3.6 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 0-2 to the over in Brady Singer's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 8-3 vs CIN this season (11 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL have won 4 straight.
- MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-3 in Shane Drohan's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 5.6 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.6 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 to the over in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-1 to the over in Shane Drohan's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- CIN bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- MIL — Shane Drohan: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18
- MIL — Shane Drohan: last start: 78 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
- MIL — Shane Drohan: 2026-09-04: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.70 ERA equivalent
- TREND: CIN — was shut out 20-0 last time out (2026-09-11)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Both starters have been rocked recently (Singer 7.80 ERA, Harrison 10.22 ERA) and both offenses are running hot against the opposing hand (CIN 151 wRC+ vs LHP, MIL 162 vs RHP), so the total already sits at a fair number for a game where everyone involved expects damage. Neither pitcher's K or outs prop offers a mismatch — both lineups are middling strikeout risks and both arms have shown enough swing-and-miss to keep their posted strikeout lines fair, while short expected outings are already baked into both outs lines.
PHI @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
PHI @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tim Mayza LBP
xERA2.34 (elite)ERA0.00 (elite)K%10.0 (poor)Whiff%17.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs3.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs13BB%0.0 (elite)
ATL all hands
L6
wRC+56 (poor)K%17.4 (above)BB%4.3 (poor)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%40.2 (above)
L12
wRC+81 (below)K%22.2 (avg)BB%6.2 (poor)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)
Tyler Mahle R
xERA3.23 (good)ERA1.02 (elite)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%27.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%44.2 (below)Barrel%1.9 (elite)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs92BB%4.2 (elite)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+73 (poor)K%26.4 (below)BB%5.7 (poor)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%45.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+57 (poor)K%23.2 (avg)BB%6.8 (below)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 3.98 (avg)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
ATL
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 2.58 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI+120+1.5 (-171)O8.5 (-103)ATL-134-1.5 (+158)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI+118+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-104)ATL-145-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI3.5 (-125/+104)1.5 (-135/+105)ATL4.5 (+114/-130)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTim Mayza——Tyler Mahle4.5 (-108 / -110)16.5 (+102 / -122)
Tim Mayza · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 8 '26vs L1.0*1500000
L1.0*1500000Sep 4 '26vs L1.0*1001000
L1.0*1001000Aug 26 '26@ W1.0*1510000
W1.0*1510000Aug 23 '26vs W1.1*2411100
W1.1*2411100Aug 21 '26vs W0.2*1912000
W0.2*1912000Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@ W6.09434102
W6.09434102Aug 30 '26vs W6.28995011
W6.28995011Aug 23 '26@ W5.09446211
W5.09446211Aug 18 '26@ L6.27636122
L6.27636122Aug 12 '26vs W6.09374011
W6.09374011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.42.78elite4.04.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@ W6.09434102
W6.09434102Apr 28 '26@ L5.08236355
L5.08236355Apr 8 '26vs W5.29463400
W5.29463400home starts6.10.99elite6.34.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26vs W6.28995011
W6.28995011Aug 12 '26vs W6.09374011
W6.09374011Jul 27 '26vs W6.08833200
W6.08833200Trends · PHI
- PHI are 3-8 vs ATL this season (11 games).
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 1-4 in Tim Mayza's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 0-2 in Tim Mayza's last 2 away starts.
- PHI average 2.0 runs/game in Tim Mayza's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 1.5 runs/game in Tim Mayza's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 8-3 vs PHI this season (11 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-0 in Tyler Mahle's last 2 home starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.5 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-1 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph S
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 10
- BULLPEN GAME: PHI have no conventional starter — Tim Mayza is listed (last 5 outings avg 1.0 IP (longest 1.3)). Expect a parade of relievers; ATL's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
- PHI — Tim Mayza: small sample: 3.0 IP over 3 starts
- PHI — Tim Mayza: Whiff% 17.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.0 shows
- PHI — Tim Mayza: 49 days since last start (2026-07-25) news ↗
- PHI — Tim Mayza: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-08, 2026-09-04
- PHI — Tim Mayza: last start: 20 pitches over 2.0 IP news ↗
- PHI — Tim Mayza: 2026-06-22: 1 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- PHI — Tim Mayza: recent opponents high-K: WSN 28%, NYM 27%
- ATL — Tyler Mahle: recent opponents high-K: COL 34%, PHI 26%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
PHI @ ATL F5 u3.5 (+110)
Luzardo carries a 0.40 ERA and 2.41 xERA over his last 3 starts, including a 9K/0ER shutout of this same Atlanta lineup 5 days ago, and Atlanta has been one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties at -30 wRC+ over its last 6 games and -12 over its last 12 - a rare case where both windows agree the weakness is real, not a blip. Mahle has been just as sharp on the other side, running a 1.05 ERA and 3.23 xERA over his last 3 with a scoreless 6IP start against Philadelphia six days ago, and Philadelphia's own bat is cold at 73 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP. With both starters missing bats and dominant recently and both lineups struggling against the specific hand they face today, a first-five total of 3.5 is priced too close to a coin flip for how suppressed this game profiles.
CHW @ STL✓7:15 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
CHW @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Luis Castillo RO
xERA4.94 (below)ERA11.81 (poor)K%11.9 (poor)Whiff%16.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%43.5 (below)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs78BB%6.8 (good)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+135 (elite)K%19.2 (above)BB%9.8 (above)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%46.7 (elite)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%19.8 (above)BB%8.6 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%44.2 (above)
Kyle Leahy R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%28.9 (poor)BB%10.2 (above)Whiff%27.9 (below)HH%44.4 (above)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%24.7 (below)BB%10.7 (above)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.57 (good)ERA 2.86 (elite)2d stress Stressed (11.0 IP/2g)
STL
xERA 4.63 (below)ERA 5.43 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW-108-1.5 (+150)O8.5 (-104)STL-108+1.5 (-182)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-104+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-118)STL-115-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW4.5 (+116/-148)2.5 (+124/-160)STL3.5 (-142/+112)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULuis Castillo——Kyle Leahy3.5 (+138 / +118)8.5 (-155 / +123)
Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 3 '26@ L4.07836266
L4.07836266Aug 28 '26@ W4.07518144
W4.07518144Aug 22 '26vs L2.28038144
L2.28038144Aug 17 '26@ L4.29918134
L4.29918134Aug 12 '26vs W7.0104101200
W7.0104101200Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@ W2.25566055
W2.25566055Aug 29 '26vs L3.05134111
L3.05134111Aug 23 '26@ L4.06342200
L4.06342200Aug 18 '26@ W5.09063000
W5.09063000Aug 12 '26vs W5.08166011
W5.08166011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW—
home starts4.32.77elite5.76.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs L3.05134111
L3.05134111Aug 12 '26vs W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7 '26vs W5.08288022
W5.08288022Trends · CHW
- CHW are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW have lost 4 straight.
- CHW are 2-3 in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-3 in Luis Castillo's last 4 away starts.
- CHW average 4.8 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 6.2 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 to the over in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Luis Castillo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 5.2 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 0-3 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
89°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 10
- OPENER: CHW start Sean Newcomb (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 2.2 IP (longest 3.0)), with Luis Castillo (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — STL's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- CHW — Luis Castillo: avg 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3
- STL — Kyle Leahy: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CHW bullpen stressed (11.0 IP over 2g)
- STL bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- CHW — Luis Castillo: last start: 78 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
- CHW — Luis Castillo: recent opponents low-K: NYM 16%, MIN 18%
- STL — Kyle Leahy: last start: 55 pitches over 2.2 IP news ↗
- STL — Kyle Leahy: 2026-09-06: 5 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 20); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.50 ERA equivalent
- STL — Kyle Leahy: recent opponents high-K: PHI 26%, COL 34%
STL Team Total o3.5 (-142)
STL's offense has been elite vs RHP, running a 135 wRC+ over its last 6 games and 116 over its last 12 — the same hot form corroborated by both windows. Chicago is using an opener in front of Luis Castillo, whose bulk-arm line over his last 3 starts is an 11.81 ERA on just 3.6 innings per outing, and the White Sox bullpen is already stressed at 11.0 innings over its last two days. A dominant, consistent offense facing a short, battered pitching staff with a tired bullpen behind it should clear 3.5 runs well more often than the priced 55%.
TEX @ ARI8:10 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
TEX @ ARIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kumar Rocker R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA5.93 (poor)K%27.7 (good)Whiff%26.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs84BB%10.8 (below)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+112 (avg)K%18.5 (above)BB%9.3 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+83 (below)K%21.8 (avg)BB%9.2 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%31.3 (below)
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA4.38 (avg)ERA4.26 (avg)K%10.1 (poor)Whiff%17.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%29.2 (elite)Barrel%9.2 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%6.3 (good)
TEX vs RHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%30.2 (poor)BB%10.5 (above)Whiff%29.8 (poor)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%24.5 (below)BB%10.7 (above)Whiff%27.2 (below)HH%38.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 5.62 (poor)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 2.67 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+113+1.5 (-185)O8.5 (-105)ARI-130-1.5 (+162)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+106+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-115)ARI-132-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-145/+114)ARI4.5 (+116/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker3.5 (-125 / +101)14.5 (-160 / +136)Brandon Pfaadt4.5 (+124 / -144)17.5 (-132 / +100)
Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 4 '26vs L5.0*7339056
L5.0*7339056Aug 30 '26@ W3.08674422
W3.08674422Aug 24 '26@ W5.29385322
W5.29385322Aug 19 '26vs L5.09236122
L5.09236122Aug 14 '26@ L5.09434533
L5.09434533Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 5 '26@ W6.19347233
W6.19347233Aug 31 '26vs L6.08715122
L6.08715122Aug 25 '26vs W6.210336244
W6.210336244Aug 19 '26@ W5.29487055
W5.29487055Aug 14 '26@ W7.08772000
W7.08772000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.00.00elite3.03.04.0(1)
at ARI—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 13 '26vs W5.09733400
W5.09733400Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX—
home starts6.42.81elite2.04.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs L6.08715122
L6.08715122Aug 25 '26vs W6.210336244
W6.210336244Aug 8 '26vs L7.09322200
L7.09322200Trends · TEX
- TEX are 2-2 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 5.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 5.4 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 4-1 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-0 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-2 vs TEX this season (4 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 3.8 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 3.4 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 2-3 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: Whiff% 17.8 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.1 shows
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 13 days since last start (2026-08-30) news ↗
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-04
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent opponents high-K: WSN 27%, CHW 29%
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent opponents high-K: PHI 26%, HOU 25%
AI Analysis
Rocker's xERA (3.31) is much better than his ERA (5.93) but his last three outings have shrunk in length (5.0, 5.7, 3.0 IP) with walks climbing (1, 3, 4), and he's coming back on 13 days rest after a recent bullpen relief outing, which muddies any read on how deep he goes tonight — that keeps ARI's -1.5/+1.5 run line and the 8.5/8.0 total both close to fair given TEX's cold 87 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 is offset by ARI's own last-6 vs last-12 wRC+ gap (112 vs 83) suggesting their hot form is a short heater, not a new baseline. Rocker's strikeout line (3.5) and outs line (14.5) already account for his shortening, walk-prone recent starts, and Pfaadt's K line (4.5) and outs line (17.5) match his own recent form — three straight ~6-inning outings with only 3, 1 and 4 strikeouts despite an elevated whiff rate — so neither prop offers a clear mispricing.
SEA @ ATH9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
SEA @ ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.19 (good)ERA3.50 (good)K%30.0 (elite)Whiff%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs92BB%5.7 (good)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+71 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)BB%6.1 (poor)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%32.6 (below)
L12
wRC+99 (avg)K%22.8 (avg)BB%6.8 (below)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Gage Jump L
xERA4.15 (avg)ERA6.75 (poor)K%28.1 (elite)Whiff%30.7 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%14.6 (below)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%7.8 (avg)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+57 (poor)K%21.4 (avg)BB%7.7 (below)Whiff%17.6 (elite)HH%35.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+70 (poor)K%22.2 (avg)BB%8.2 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (above)HH%31.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.38 (avg)ERA 5.90 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
ATH
xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 2.42 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-168-1.5 (-105)O9.5 (-112)ATH+142+1.5 (-106)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-175-0.5 (-130)O5.5 (+108)ATH+144+0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA5.5 (-104/-120)2.5 (-130/+100)ATH3.5 (-142/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryan Woo5.5 (+112 / -130)17.5 (-165 / +124)Gage Jump5.5 (+112 / -134)15.5 (+138 / -185)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs W8.010291200
W8.010291200Sep 1 '26@ W6.09975112
W6.09975112Aug 26 '26vs L4.07655166
L4.07655166Aug 16 '26@ W6.07553122
W6.07553122Aug 11 '26@ L5.09253100
L5.09253100Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@ L4.08276022
L4.08276022Aug 31 '26@ L4.19126377
L4.19126377Aug 25 '26vs W6.19493222
W6.19493222Aug 20 '26@ L4.08638355
L4.08638355Aug 14 '26vs W5.110113433
W5.110113433SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH7.02.56elite7.33.31.7(3)
at ATH6.07.44poor6.08.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs W8.010291200
W8.010291200Aug 22 '25vs W7.08871211
W7.08871211Jul 30 '25@ L6.18468155
L6.18468155May 7 '25@ W6.010068155
W6.010068155Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.56.00poor6.07.50.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@ L4.08276022
L4.08276022May 26 '26vs L5.08859144
L5.08859144home starts4.86.88poor5.03.34.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26vs W6.19493222
W6.19493222Aug 14 '26vs W5.110113433
W5.110113433Aug 2 '26vs L3.28854666
L3.28854666Trends · SEA
- SEA are 5-6 vs ATH this season (11 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 3.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 3.2 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 1-4 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-2 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 6-5 vs SEA this season (11 games).
- ATH are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 3-2 in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 3.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 to the over in Gage Jump's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Clear, Wind 14 mph SW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- SEA offense: K% 21.4 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 17.6 supports
- ATH bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- SEA — Bryan Woo: last start: 102 pitches over 8.0 IP news ↗
- SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-08-26: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.75 ERA equivalent
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-08-31: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.73 ERA equivalent
- ATH — Gage Jump: low-K outing 2026-08-31 (2 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
AI Analysis
Woo's excellent recent form and Athletics' cold 71 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 support Seattle as the better team, but Seattle's own 3-7 road record over its last 10 and modest scoring averages on both sides keep the -168/+142 moneyline and the 9.5 total fairly priced, especially with both clubs having just seen these starters six days ago, which cuts toward each offense performing better than its cold recent numbers suggest. Woo's strikeout line (5.5) and outs line (17.5) already reflect his dominant last start against a merely average-K Athletics lineup, and Jump's strikeout line (5.5) and outs line (15.5) already track his shrinking recent outings (6.1, 4.1, 4.0 innings) and inconsistent strikeout totals (9, 2, 7), leaving no edge on either arm's props.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.BB%Share of batters faced walked.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.