MLB Game Overviews

Joey Cantillo and Gabriel Rodriguez both carry elite xERAs over their last 3 (2.77 and 2.25) against two average lineups, and with both bullpens running 1.80 ERAs over their last 12 the 8.5 total and the short Cleveland price already account for it. Cantillo's strikeout line at 6.5 asks for seven in a start where he is averaging 3.9 innings, and his outs line at 15.5 is muddied by a one-inning outing sitting in the middle of his window. Rodriguez faces a Cleveland lineup striking out just 13.9% of the time vs RHP over their last 6, which kills the strikeout over, and he just went seven innings on 99 pitches at Houston, which undercuts betting his outs line short.

Jesus Luzardo's 2.20 xERA and 38.0 K% over his last 3 against a Seattle lineup at 86 wRC+ and 27.0 K% vs LHP over their last 6 is exactly why Philadelphia is -126 and the total is down at 7.0 in a park playing at 92 — the read is correct and fully priced. Luzardo's strikeout line at 7.5 already demands a top-end outing and his outs line has been juiced to -210 on the under after 110 pitches over 5.2 innings last time. Bryan Woo has allowed two earned runs total across his last three starts and the market has priced both his 5.5 strikeout line and his 17.5 outs line right at the 6.0 IP/gs and 5.0 strikeouts he has been producing.

San Diego's 119 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 against Bubba Chandler is the better half of the matchup but -126 is a fair price for it, and with both bullpens stressed at six-plus innings over the past two days the 8.5/8.0 total is a genuine tossup. Chandler's strikeout number at 4.5 has been juiced to -167 on the under after 5, 5 and 6 strikeouts, and his outs line at 15.5 fits an arm averaging 5.0 IP/gs. Randy Vasquez has struck out 1, 1 and 3 in his last three starts, so the 3.5 strikeout line is already at the floor, and his outs line at 15.5 is priced -174 to the under despite a 7-inning outing on 87 pitches last time — both numbers have moved past where the value was.

Neither side is playable: Houston sits at 69 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and the Yankees at 103 with a 30.5 K%, and the total is split at 9.0/8.5 with no clear direction between a Lambert who has an 8.56 ERA but a 3.67 xERA over his last 3 and a Yankees starter who has not pitched in 66 days. Peter Lambert's strikeout line at 5.5 is well above his 4.0 per start, but he faces a lineup whiffing at 26.5% over their last 6, and his outs line at 16.5 is a fair read after 79 pitches over 3.2 innings last time. Elmer Rodriguez has no props posted, and with two months since his last start there is no usable read on his workload anyway.

Toronto opens with Spencer Miles before handing off to Woods Richardson, who has thrown 4.1 innings across three starts and last worked 2.2 innings on 67 pitches, so neither the 8.5 total nor the Toronto price rests on anything firm. Randy Dobnak's strikeout line at 2.5 is juiced to -165 against a Toronto lineup striking out only 16.9% vs RHP over their last 6, and his outs line at 16.5 already matches the 4.9 IP/gs he has been giving Kansas City. Woods Richardson has no props posted, which is the correct treatment of a bulk arm following an opener.

Dustin May's 5.79 xERA over his last 3 is inflated by a 2-inning, 7-run start that follows six and seven strong innings, and Milwaukee's 151 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 against 107 over their last 12 is a heater the -154 price already leans on, so neither side nor the 8.5/8.0 total offers a number worth taking. May's strikeout line at 5.5 sits above his 4.0 per start and his outs line at 15.5 is fair for a 5.0 IP/gs arm coming off a 66-pitch outing. Robert Stock walks 17.5% over his last 3 and averages 3.9 IP/gs, but the market has already shortened him to a 14.5 outs line and a 4.5 strikeout line, leaving nothing to take.

Two cold lineups — Baltimore at 74 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and St. Louis at 79 — meet a total of 8.0 that already reflects it, and the moneyline is a true coin flip at -108/-107 with nothing to separate the clubs. Kyle Bradish's strikeout number at 4.5 matches his 4.0 per start over his last 3, and his outs line at 17.5 is exactly the 5.9 IP/gs he has been giving Baltimore. Michael McGreevy has gone 17, 18 and 16 outs in his last three with 4.7 strikeouts per start, so both of his numbers sit right where his recent work lands.