CLE @ 
TBR8:08 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
CLE @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tanner Bibee RO
xERA4.65 (below)ERA9.00 (poor)K%17.0 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)BB%5.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs5.5 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs95
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+26 (poor)K%29.7 (poor)Whiff%28.8 (poor)BB%4.4 (poor)HH%31.1 (below)
L12
wRC+83 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)BB%5.8 (poor)HH%41.0 (above)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.64 (good)ERA0.79 (elite)K%19.6 (avg)Whiff%28.4 (elite)BB%8.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%12.5 (below)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.5PC/gs92
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+78 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%7.6 (below)HH%28.9 (poor)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%20.4 (above)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.20 (good)ERA 2.90 (elite)2d stress Stressed (15.0 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 3.86 (avg)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+132+1.5 (-174)O7.0 (+102)TBR-155-1.5 (+146)U6.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+122+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-118)TBR-145-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE2.5 (-140/+114)1.5 (+105/-135)TBR3.5 (-102/-115)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTanner Bibee——Freddy Peralta4.5 (+130 / +133)14.5 (-138 / +124)
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26 '26@ 
W6.09467133
W6.09467133Sep 19 '26vs 
W4.295212066
W4.295212066Sep 13 '26@ 
W6.29674222
W6.29674222Sep 8 '26@ 
W4.16216155
W4.16216155Sep 3 '26vs 
L4.08944555
L4.08944555Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
W5.19344300
W5.19344300Sep 19 '26vs 
W5.29764211
W5.29764211Sep 13 '26vs 
W5.08640300
W5.08640300Sep 8 '26@ 
W6.09225111
W6.09225111Sep 1 '26vs 
W6.07473011
W6.07473011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.73.14good4.76.02.0(3)
at TBR6.13.69good4.07.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25 '26@ L6.010759233
L6.010759233Apr 28 '26vs L5.09364311
L5.09364311Sep 6 '25@ W6.29235122
W6.29235122Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.17.06poor4.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 12 '25@ L5.19544344
L5.19544344home starts5.41.11elite5.72.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19 '26vs W5.29764211
W5.29764211Sep 13 '26vs W5.08640300
W5.08640300Sep 1 '26vs W6.07473011
W6.07473011Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-9 vs TBR this season (12 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 4-1 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 4-1 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 8.8 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 7.4 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 5-0 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-0 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 9-3 vs CLE this season (12 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 4 home starts.
- TBR average 6.2 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 8
- OPENER: CLE start Shawn Armstrong (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 0.7 IP (longest 1.0)), with Tanner Bibee (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — TBR's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: Whiff% 28.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 19.6 shows
- CLE bullpen stressed (15.0 IP over 2g)
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 23 days since last start (2026-09-26) news ↗
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 2026-09-19: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.70 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: low-K outing 2026-09-19 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: 24 days since last start (2026-09-25) news ↗
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: recent opponents high-K: HOU 31%, BOS 27%
AI Analysis
Both lineups are cold against today's starter handedness — CLE sits at a 78 wRC+ and TBR at just 26 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 — which cancels out any clean side or total read, and TBR's -155/-174 price already reflects Peralta's dominant recent form and home strength without leaving a clear mispricing on either the moneyline, run line, or the total near 6.5-7.0. On the mound, Freddy Peralta's 4.5 strikeout line is fairly priced (his own K% is moderate and CLE's last-6 K% of 21.1% is ordinary, not a lineup primed for an over or under), and his 14.5 outs line already sits below his recent 15-17 out starts with nothing beyond that recent depth to argue it's mispriced. Tanner Bibee is only a bulk arm behind an opener who throws under an inning, so his own props aren't posted and his short, uncertain role after 23 days of rest and a stressed CLE bullpen (15 IP over the last two days) makes any length or strikeout bet on him unsupported by anything on the card.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.