MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 1 Bet · Sep 21

1u Picks

BAL Team Total o3.5 (-120)

TOR @ BAL · 6:36 PM ET

BAL's offense carries a 145 wRC+ over its last 6 games vs RHP, backed up by a strong 120 wRC+ over the last 12 vs RHP, so this is established form against right-handed pitching rather than a one-week blip. Yesavage is returning from a 48-day layoff and his last outing before that was just 2.0 IP on 27 pitches, a workload pattern that points to a short, managed leash tonight, which hands the ball quickly to a TOR bullpen that has thrown 9.0 innings over the last two days (elevated stress) and carries a 4.06 xERA over its last 12. Yesavage's 3.17 xERA over his last 3 starts is real quality, but a hot BAL lineup getting extra at-bats against a taxed TOR relief corps is being underpriced at a team total that sits below the league-average run mark for a single club.

Found at 5:45 AM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

TOR @

BAL✓

6:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Trey Yesavage R

xERA3.17 (good)ERA2.84 (elite)K%25.5 (good)Whiff%29.0 (elite)BB%9.8 (avg)

More Stats

HH%27.3 (elite)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs72

BAL vs RHP

wRC+145 (elite)K%32.7 (poor)Whiff%25.6 (below)BB%6.7 (below)HH%35.2 (avg)

L12

wRC+120 (above)K%29.1 (poor)Whiff%25.3 (below)BB%7.2 (below)HH%36.2 (avg)

Shane Baz R

xERA5.07 (below)ERA5.06 (below)K%17.8 (avg)Whiff%14.9 (below)BB%6.9 (good)

More Stats

HH%45.3 (poor)Barrel%13.2 (below)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88

TOR vs RHP

wRC+88 (below)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%18.4 (above)BB%11.9 (elite)HH%31.8 (below)

L12

wRC+118 (above)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%19.3 (above)BB%9.3 (avg)HH%35.7 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

TOR

xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 3.02 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)

BAL

xERA 3.01 (good)ERA 2.49 (elite)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTOR-104-1.5 (+160)O7.5 (-115)BAL-110+1.5 (-192)U7.5 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTOR-105+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (+106)BAL-118-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (-138)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-140/+110)BAL3.5 (-120/-104)1.5 (-154/+120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTrey Yesavage3.5 (+134 / +120)—Shane Baz3.5 (-150 / +126)17.5 (-114 / -107)

Trey Yesavage · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4 '26@

L2.02700100

Jul 29 '26@

W6.29743311

Jul 24 '26@

L4.09395133

Jul 19 '26vs

L6.09595233

Jul 11 '26@

L1.25911744

Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 15 '26@

W4.06827233

Sep 9 '26vs

W5.210056155

Sep 4 '26vs

L6.19564211

Aug 29 '26@

W5.28445322

Aug 23 '26vs

L5.29635333

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Trey Yesavage

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL5.16.18poor4.53.54.5(2)

at BAL5.01.80elite4.02.07.0(1)

all 2 this season · last met 108 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 5 '26vs

L5.29155266

May 30 '26@

L5.09242711

Shane Baz

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR5.11.17elite3.74.31.7(3)

1 this season, 2 last season · last met 106 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 7 '26@

L5.28137115

Sep 18 '25vs

W5.07442100

May 24 '25vs

W5.28244311

home starts5.54.91below4.75.02.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 9 '26vs

W5.210056155

Sep 4 '26vs

L6.19564211

Aug 23 '26vs

L5.29635333

Trends · TOR

TOR are 6-4 vs BAL this season (10 games).
TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
TOR are 1-4 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
TOR are 1-4 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · BAL

BAL are 4-6 vs TOR this season (10 games).
BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
BAL are 3-2 in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
BAL are 1-4 in Shane Baz's last 5 home starts.
BAL average 4.4 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
BAL average 2.2 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
BAL are 2-3 to the over in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
BAL are 1-2 to the over in Shane Baz's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

70°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph NNE

APF 103 — Neutral

Flags · 9

TOR bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
BAL bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
TOR — Trey Yesavage: 48 days since last start (2026-08-04) news ↗
TOR — Trey Yesavage: last start: 27 pitches over 2.0 IP news ↗
TOR — Trey Yesavage: high-K outing 2026-07-24 (9 Ks vs avg 4.3 over his last 3)
BAL — Shane Baz: last start: 68 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
BAL — Shane Baz: 2026-09-09: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.11 ERA equivalent
TREND: BAL — was shut out 3-0 last time out (2026-09-20)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)

BAL Team Total o3.5 (-120)

WSN @

DET

6:40 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

DJ Herz L

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

DET vs LHP

wRC+204 (elite)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%21.4 (avg)BB%5.8 (poor)HH%38.2 (avg)

L12

wRC+160 (elite)K%25.8 (below)Whiff%20.1 (above)BB%6.5 (below)HH%39.3 (avg)

River Ryan R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

WSN vs RHP

wRC+111 (avg)K%19.0 (above)Whiff%24.0 (avg)BB%8.6 (avg)HH%41.5 (above)

L12

wRC+82 (below)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (below)BB%8.8 (avg)HH%43.0 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

WSN

xERA 4.66 (below)ERA 5.40 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)

DET

xERA 3.07 (good)ERA 1.70 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalWSN+130+1.5 (-167)O8.5 (+100)DET-152-1.5 (+142)U8.0 (-102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalWSN+122+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-120)DET-152-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-108)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (-120/-102)1.5 (-145/+114)DET4.5 (+106/-130)2.5 (-105/-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UDJ Herz3.5 (-106 / -113)11.5 (-103 / -129)River Ryan——

Trends · WSN

WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.

Over / Under

WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · DET

DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
DET are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.

Over / Under

DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
DET are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

62°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph NNE

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 2

WSN — DJ Herz: first start of the season — no stats available yet
DET — River Ryan: first start of the season — no stats available yet

AI Analysis

Neither DJ Herz nor River Ryan has any 2026 track record on the card, so there is no way to grade either starter against the other lineup, and DET's elite 204 wRC+ over its last 6 games vs LHP (160 over the last 12) can't be weighed against an unknown arm with any confidence - the side and total both carry too much uncertainty on the pitching half to trust the posted numbers either way. Both pitchers are marked with no stats this season, so their strikeout and outs lines (Herz at K 3.5 / outs 11.5) are unbettable in either direction.

MIN @

SFG

9:45 PM · Oracle ParkPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Zebby Matthews R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

SFG vs RHP

wRC+121 (above)K%31.7 (poor)Whiff%28.6 (poor)BB%9.8 (above)HH%35.2 (avg)

L12

wRC+109 (avg)K%26.7 (below)Whiff%25.2 (below)BB%7.7 (below)HH%33.3 (below)

Blade Tidwell R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

MIN vs RHP

wRC+83 (below)K%25.6 (below)Whiff%31.9 (poor)BB%6.2 (poor)HH%34.5 (below)

L12

wRC+99 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%26.3 (below)BB%7.5 (below)HH%38.2 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

MIN

xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 5.11 (below)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)

SFG

xERA 4.29 (avg)ERA 3.30 (good)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIN-118-1.5 (+144)O8.5 (+104)SFG+102+1.5 (-166)U8.0 (-102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIN-120-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-108)SFG-104+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-120)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN4.5 (+116/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)SFG3.5 (-122/+100)1.5 (-160/+124)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UZebby Matthews4.5 (-120 / -102)15.5 (-111 / -119)Blade Tidwell3.5 (-150 / +126)15.5 (+121 / -162)

Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26vs

W6.09782200

Sep 9 '26@

L2.15822455

Sep 4 '26@

L5.08444144

Aug 30 '26vs

W8.110355011

Aug 24 '26@

W7.010576111

Blade Tidwell · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 15 '26@

W6.29543122

Sep 9 '26vs

W4.07825245

Sep 3 '26@

L5.09552522

Aug 28 '26vs

L5.010047166

Aug 22 '26@

L5.29373200

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Blade Tidwell

IPERAKHBB

vs MIN—

home starts4.410.99poor2.35.02.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 9 '26vs

W4.07825245

Aug 28 '26vs

L5.010047166

Aug 16 '26vs

L4.16313566

Trends · MIN

MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
MIN average 4.4 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
MIN average 5.0 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

MIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 3-2 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
MIN are 2-1 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 3 away starts.

Trends · SFG

SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
SFG are 2-3 in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
SFG are 1-3 in Blade Tidwell's last 4 home starts.
SFG average 5.4 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
SFG average 5.8 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 4 home starts.

Over / Under

SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
SFG are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games.
SFG are 2-3 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
SFG are 3-0 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

59°F, Overcast, Wind 11 mph W

APF 97 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 5

MIN — Zebby Matthews: first start of the season — no stats available yet
SFG — Blade Tidwell: first start of the season — no stats available yet
MIN bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-09-09: 5 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 21); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.60 ERA equivalent
SFG — Blade Tidwell: 2026-09-09: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.25 ERA equivalent

AI Analysis

Zebby Matthews and Blade Tidwell are both making their first starts of the season with no rate stats on the card, leaving no real read on either pitcher for the side or total; the offensive splits are unremarkable in isolation (MIN 83 wRC+ and SFG 121 wRC+ over their last 6 vs RHP, neither extreme) and don't provide enough on their own to lean a total or spread without knowing what either arm brings. With both pitchers flagged as no-stats, their posted strikeout and outs numbers (Matthews K 4.5/outs 15.5, Tidwell K 3.5/outs 15.5) are off the board.

Legend · badges & abbreviations

Badges

R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.

Starting pitcher · last 3 starts

xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.

Offense

wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.

Bullpen

2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.

Odds

MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.

Recent-outing table

Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.

Weather and park

APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.