AI Picks · 7 Bets · Jul 9
ATL @ PIT o9.5 (+102)
Both starters have poor xERAs (Elder 6.09, Keller 6.07) — neither is an ace by any measure. Keller has an 8.51 ERA vs ATL in 2 starts and is at home where he owns a 6.19 ERA. Elder has a poor 12.21 ERA and 6.09 xERA. PIT offense is elite (wRC+ 167 in L12) and averages 6.2 RS at home in Keller's starts. ATL offense is solid at 107 wRC+. Both bullpens are average/below (ATL xERA 3.64, PIT 4.76). PIT's Barrel% of 13% and HH% of 46% signal elevated contact risk for Keller. Getting +102 on the over 9.5 with both poor starters and an elite offense makes this a value play.
Found at 6:37 AM ET
Drew Rasmussen o6.5 Ks (+125)
Rasmussen is in elite form: recent ERA 1.35, averaging 8.3 K/start over last 3 (5K vs KCR, 7K vs LAD, 13K vs BOS). His matchup history vs NYY is outstanding: 3gs, 0.95 ERA, 6.3 IP/gs, 6.3 K/gs avg. Today NYY is sporting a brutal wRC+ 41 vs RHP with 30.6% K rate — the most strikeout-prone offense on the board. Even calibrating for the 13K outlier vs BOS, Rasmussen's adjusted K expectation vs this NYY lineup is 7–8+. Getting +125 on a line that his recent average easily clears, against a lineup with 30%+ K rate, is strong value. Outs line 17.5 at -165 confirms the market expects a full, deep outing.
Found at 6:37 AM ET
SEA Team Total u4.5 (-125)
Bryce Miller is the best pitcher on the board by xERA (1.65, elite) with recent ERA 1.42 — he's locked in. SEA offense is below average (wRC+ 86 in L12) and will be the AWAY team, while MIA gets Janson Junk on the mound. The bet here is specifically on MIA holding SEA to few runs: Miller limits MIA, but the question is SEA's scoring. With Junk struggling (recent ERA 6.63, xERA 3.63, 45 days since last start) and MIA's elite offense (wRC+ 171), this game is likely to be lopsided — but SEA's scoring potential is capped by their below-average offense (wRC+ 86). SEA avg 3.6 RS in SP's recent starts. At -125, this is acceptable value for a team that scores under 4.5 runs frequently.
Found at 6:37 AM ET
Bryce Miller o5.5 Ks (-132)
Bryce Miller is elite: xERA 1.65, K% 41.9%, recent ERA 1.42, averaging 7.7 K/start over his last 3. The flag notes recent high-K opponents (PIT 27%, LAA 26%), but MIA's K% vs RHP is 17.1% — lower than those. Calibrating down: adjusted expectation ~6.5–7.5 Ks vs MIA's contact-oriented lineup. That's still comfortably above the 5.5 line (~1.0–2.0 gap). The Outs line at 17.5 (-140) confirms market expects him to go deep. At -132, this is fair value for a pitcher with this elite profile.
Found at 12:21 PM ET
DET F5 ML -130 (-130)
Framber Valdez is pitching well: xERA 3.52, recent ERA 2.65 (adjusting for the one bad start flag), going 6+ IP in two of last three starts with 94/92 pitch counts. He has excellent history vs ATH (2gs, 2.08 ERA, 6.5 IP/gs). ATH's Jack Perkins has a recent ERA of 6.43, xERA 4.47, and is a clear liability. DET offense is solid vs RHP (wRC+ 106 L12). ATH bullpen xERA 5.03 is a disqualifier for full-game ATH bets. F5 is the correct vehicle: Valdez is the edge, capture it before ATH's pen becomes irrelevant and DET's average pen enters. -130 is at the line warning threshold.
Found at 12:21 PM ET
Line Warning: Consider DET Team Total Over 4.5 (-104) or DET F5 Spread -0.5 (+106) for better value
Jesus Luzardo o7.5 Ks (+100)
Luzardo is the most dominant pitcher on the board: xERA 1.81 (elite), K% 38.4%, recent ERA 1.96, averaging 10.0 K/start over his last 3. CIN has a 22.5% K rate vs LHP — above average, slightly below the strikeout-prone lineups he's recently torched (WSN/MIA/TOR), but still a favorable matchup. Adjusted K expectation ~9–10 per start. The line of 7.5 is significantly below his recent average. Outs line of 17.5 is -138, confirming the market expects him to go deep (5.8+ IP), giving him plenty of innings to accumulate strikeouts. Getting +100 on a line that should clear easily is excellent value.
Found at 6:37 AM ET
MIL @ STL u8.5 (-112)
Three clear under signals align: (1) Pallante has a recent ERA of 2.37 (adjusted for one bad start flag) with xERA 3.27 — legitimately solid. (2) STL offense is cold: wRC+ 71 vs RHP in L12. (3) MIL bullpen is elite: xERA 2.18, ERA 1.74 — best in today's slate; they will lock it down. Henderson is returning from 48 days off (concern) but MIL's pen covers. APF 101 is neutral. The key driver: STL is a poor offense (wRC+ 71) facing a solid pitcher backed by a shutdown bullpen, and MIL's offense (wRC+ 112) faces a steady Pallante who has a 2.37 recent ERA. Both teams averaging modest run support in Pallante's starts (avg 6.6 RS is skewed; home avg 3.6). Full-game under is justified given elite MIL bullpen holding the number.
Found at 12:21 PM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
ATL @ 
PIT✓12:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
ATL @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Elder R
xERA6.09 (poor)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%41.1 (below avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA12.21IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs80BB%6.9
PIT vs RHP
wRC+167 (elite)K%26.6 (below avg)HH%40.9 (above avg)
Mitch Keller R
xERA6.07 (poor)K%12.0 (below avg)HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%12.7 (below avg)ERA5.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs85BB%2.7
ATL vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%19.1 (above avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-110-1.5 (+140)O10.0 (-104)PIT-106+1.5 (-166)U10.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-114-0.5 (+116)O5.5 (-106)PIT-110+0.5 (-152)U5.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATLO4.5 (-140)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)PITO4.5 (-118)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Elder4.5 (+105 / -122)15.5 (+122 / -140)Mitch Keller3.5 (-137 / +112)16.5 (-106 / -120)
Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ 
L4.06945155
L4.06945155Jun 21vs 
L6.095612288
L6.095612288Jun 14@ 
L4.075210266
L4.075210266Jun 7vs W6.08842222
W6.08842222Jun 2vs 
W6.210366133
W6.210366133Mitch Keller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ 
L6.08318055
L6.08318055Jun 28vs 
W6.07945134
W6.07945134Jun 23vs 
L6.09247133
L6.09247133Jun 16@ 
W5.19674415
W5.19674415Jun 11vs 
L4.09837455
L4.09837455SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.03.756.03.51.0(2)
at PIT6.04.508.05.00.0(1)
Mitch Keller
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.78.515.05.04.0(2)
home starts5.36.193.76.32.0(3)
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 4-1 vs PIT this season (5 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 2.4 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 2.2 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-4 vs ATL this season (5 games).
- PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Mitch Keller's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 5.6 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.2 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 4.682d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 4.82 (below avg)ERA 5.232d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- PIT — Mitch Keller: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT — Mitch Keller: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATL bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL — Bryce Elder: 12 days since last start (2026-06-27) — may not be fully stretched out
- ATL — Bryce Elder: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — Mitch Keller: 2026-07-03: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- PIT — Mitch Keller: recent opponents high-K: SEA 27%, CIN 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
ATL @ PIT o9.5 (+102)
Both starters have poor xERAs (Elder 6.09, Keller 6.07) — neither is an ace by any measure. Keller has an 8.51 ERA vs ATL in 2 starts and is at home where he owns a 6.19 ERA. Elder has a poor 12.21 ERA and 6.09 xERA. PIT offense is elite (wRC+ 167 in L12) and averages 6.2 RS at home in Keller's starts. ATL offense is solid at 107 wRC+. Both bullpens are average/below (ATL xERA 3.64, PIT 4.76). PIT's Barrel% of 13% and HH% of 46% signal elevated contact risk for Keller. Getting +102 on the over 9.5 with both poor starters and an elite offense makes this a value play.
KCR @ NYM1:10 PM · Citi FieldRainy
KCR @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Wacha R
xERA3.21 (good)K%23.2 (good)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA2.61IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs103BB%3.7
NYM vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%43.1 (above avg)
Sean Manaea L
xERA3.84 (avg)K%18.2 (avg)HH%41.3 (below avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA7.24IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs95BB%7.6
KCR vs LHP
wRC+96 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)HH%41.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+124+1.5 (-165)O9.0 (-120)NYM-136-1.5 (+150)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+108+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (+106)NYM-135-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-138)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)NYMO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Wacha4.5 (-138 / +111)17.5 (-146 / +112)Sean Manaea4.5 (-163 / +128)16.5 (-105 / -122)
Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4vs 
L6.010578144
L6.010578144Jun 27@ 
L7.210576111
L7.210576111Jun 22@ 
W7.09956111
W7.09956111Jun 16@ L6.09037133
L6.09037133Jun 11vs 
L7.010229144
L7.010229144Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4@ L5.010845136
L5.010845136Jun 29@ L5.29043222
L5.29043222Jun 24vs 
L3.08646234
L3.08646234Jun 18@ W5.19556123
W5.19556123Jun 13vs L6.08464022
L6.08464022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Wacha
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.01.805.02.03.0(1)
at NYM—
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts4.55.005.05.01.0(2)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 1-1 vs NYM this season (2 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 2.0 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 2.6 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-1 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 1-4 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 0-2 in Sean Manaea's last 2 home starts.
- NYM average 3.2 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 3.0 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.33 (poor)ERA 7.422d stress Stressed (11.7 IP/2g)
NYM
xERA 5.00 (below avg)ERA 7.912d stress Stressed (12.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Rainy
85°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph S
APF 102 — Neutral · Rain possible (9%)
Flags · 8
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.33 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen stressed (11.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM bullpen stressed (12.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR — Michael Wacha: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYM — Sean Manaea: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- NYM — Sean Manaea: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYM — Sean Manaea: 2026-06-24: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: rain risk 9% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
9% rain risk flag is noted, and more importantly both bullpens are severely stressed (KCR xERA 5.33, NYM xERA 5.00) with both disqualifying full-game side bets. Both starters had 100+ pitch counts last outing and Manaea had a bullpen appearance recently. While there's some over interest given shaky pens, the rain risk and both pitchers potentially on shorter leashes creates too much structural uncertainty.
NYY @ TBR✓1:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
NYY @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Paul Blackburn
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TBR
No data
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA3.82 (avg)K%17.1 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA3.71IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%5.7
NYY vs RHP
wRC+41 (poor)K%30.6 (poor)HH%44.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+130+1.5 (-155)O7.5 (-108)TBR-150-1.5 (+140)U7.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+146+0.5 (-110)O3.5 (-152)TBR-175-0.5 (-118)U3.5 (+116)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-128)O1.5 (-105)U1.5 (-125)TBRO3.5 (-142)U3.5 (+120)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPaul Blackburn——Drew Rasmussen6.5 (+122 / -151)17.5 (-150 / +135)
Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4@ 
L5.07726155
L5.07726155Jun 28vs 
W6.09953100
W6.09953100Jun 22vs L6.09054222
L6.09054222Jun 16@ L7.010276011
L7.010276011Jun 10vs 
W7.097132100
W7.097132100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Drew Rasmussen
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.30.956.33.71.0(3)
home starts6.30.957.73.01.3(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-7 vs TBR this season (9 games).
- NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 7-2 vs NYY this season (9 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.4 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 2.34 (elite)ERA 1.682d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 2.592d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 3
- NYY — Paul Blackburn: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: 2026-07-04: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Drew Rasmussen o6.5 Ks (+125)
Rasmussen is in elite form: recent ERA 1.35, averaging 8.3 K/start over last 3 (5K vs KCR, 7K vs LAD, 13K vs BOS). His matchup history vs NYY is outstanding: 3gs, 0.95 ERA, 6.3 IP/gs, 6.3 K/gs avg. Today NYY is sporting a brutal wRC+ 41 vs RHP with 30.6% K rate — the most strikeout-prone offense on the board. Even calibrating for the 13K outlier vs BOS, Rasmussen's adjusted K expectation vs this NYY lineup is 7–8+. Getting +125 on a line that his recent average easily clears, against a lineup with 30%+ K rate, is strong value. Outs line 17.5 at -165 confirms the market expects a full, deep outing.
CHC @ 
BAL1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
CHC @ BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
David Peterson L
xERA5.69 (poor)K%15.9 (below avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA10.80IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs80BB%7.9
BAL vs LHP
wRC+72 (poor)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
Trevor Rogers L
xERA2.82 (elite)K%24.6 (good)HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA0.49IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs92BB%10.1
CHC vs LHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%22.3 (avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+110+1.5 (-184)O10.0 (-105)BAL-126-1.5 (+157)U9.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC+110+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (-104)BAL-135-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-125)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHCO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)BALO4.5 (-135)U4.5 (+112)O2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UDavid Peterson4.5 (+128 / -162)Trevor Rogers4.5 (-105 / -118)
David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs 
L3.2913931010
L3.2913931010Jun 27@ W5.26925022
W5.26925022Jun 21@ L4.07956245
L4.07956245Jun 15@ L3.0*5412233
L3.0*5412233Jun 10vs L3.2*6317266
L3.2*6317266Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ W5.09342500
W5.09342500Jun 26vs W6.18775011
W6.18775011Jun 20@ W7.09661200
W7.09661200Jun 14vs 
L6.08245222
L6.08245222Jun 9vs L5.29736133
L5.29736133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL7.01.296.05.00.0(1)
at BAL7.01.296.05.00.0(1)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC8.01.128.04.00.0(1)
home starts5.83.124.75.31.0(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 2-0 vs BAL this season (2 games).
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 1-1 in David Peterson's last 2 starts.
- CHC are 1-0 in David Peterson's last 1 away starts.
- CHC average 4.5 runs/game in David Peterson's last 2 starts.
- CHC average 8.0 runs/game in David Peterson's last 1 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 0-2 vs CHC this season (2 games).
- BAL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-4 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 3.2 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 3.2 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 5.24 (below avg)ERA 5.652d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 3.602d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph S
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.24 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-15, 2026-06-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — David Peterson: recent opponents low-K: MIL 15%, STL 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Trevor Rogers is elite (xERA 2.82, recent ERA 2.47) but the market fully prices this in with BAL -126 ML and CHC F5 ML at +110. David Peterson is clearly struggling (recent ERA 9.00, xERA 5.69) but CHC offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 139) — these forces partially offset. CHC bullpen xERA 5.24 is a disqualifier for full-game CHC bets. BAL's bullpen (xERA 2.38) is excellent but Rogers' total K line (4.5 at -105/-118) is fairly priced given his recent avg of 4.3 K/start. No mispriced edge.
CLE @ 
MIN1:40 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
CLE @ MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gavin Williams R
xERA3.60 (good)K%30.8 (elite)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA4.30IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs92BB%9.2
MIN vs RHP
wRC+130 (elite)K%18.6 (above avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
Bailey Ober R
xERA8.23 (poor)K%9.7 (poor)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%16.4 (poor)ERA8.59IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs8.3PC/gs85BB%4.2
CLE vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%24.8 (below avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-120-1.5 (+135)O8.5 (-115)MIN+106+1.5 (-154)U8.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-130-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-120)MIN+106+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCLEO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)MINO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGavin Williams6.5 (+128 / -154)17.5 (-132 / +101)Bailey Ober4.5 (+135 / +126)15.5 (+135 / -168)
Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs W4.27965233
W4.27965233Jun 28vs W5.010366323
W5.010366323Jun 22@ L5.09585122
L5.09585122Jun 17@ L5.08747277
L5.08747277Jun 8vs L5.09054334
L5.09054334Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 30@ L4.297312178
L4.297312178May 24@ W5.08237044
W5.08237044May 17vs W5.07716233
W5.07716233May 12vs 
W9.08972000
W9.08972000May 6@ L5.08236255
L5.08236255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.03.006.75.31.7(3)
at MIN6.01.506.02.02.0(1)
Bailey Ober
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE4.37.622.75.71.0(3)
home starts6.71.803.34.01.3(3)
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-4 vs MIN this season (5 games).
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have lost 4 straight.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 4.8 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-1 vs CLE this season (5 games).
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN have won 4 straight.
- MIN are 3-2 in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 4-1 in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 5.0 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.4 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 4.58 (below avg)ERA 3.432d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
MIN
xERA 4.49 (avg)ERA 4.382d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
80°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph N
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- MIN — Bailey Ober: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CLE bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIN — Bailey Ober: 40 days since last start (2026-05-30) — may not be fully stretched out
AI Analysis
Gavin Williams is struggling (recent ERA 7.20) with a short last start (79 pitches) raising workload concerns, while Bailey Ober is 40 days removed from his last start and may not be stretched out — both significant unknowns. Ober's extreme xERA (8.23) vs decent recent form creates too much noise. The total at 8.5 is fairly priced given these competing signals.
BOS @ CHW2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
BOS @ CHWMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
TBD
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHW
No data
Anthony Kay L
xERA2.92 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)ERA3.29IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs74BB%8.5
BOS vs LHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%29.3 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-102-1.5 (+158)O9.0 (-105)CHW-114+1.5 (-180)U9.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-138)CHW-122-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)CHWO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UTBD—Anthony Kay4.5 (+108 / -136)
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ L4.04821211
L4.04821211Jun 28vs L3.27327135
L3.27327135Jun 22vs W6.010183200
W6.010183200Jun 17@ L4.08626144
L4.08626144Jun 12vs W5.08974122
W5.08974122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts4.73.175.74.71.3(3)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-0 vs CHW this season (2 games).
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have won 5 straight.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 0-2 vs BOS this season (2 games).
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 5.2 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 5.6 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.99 (elite)ERA 4.052d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
CHW
xERA 2.35 (elite)ERA 2.612d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- BOS — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CHW bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Anthony Kay: last start: 48 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHW — Anthony Kay: 2026-06-28: 3 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHW — Anthony Kay: recent opponents high-K: CLE 27%, CLE 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
BOS starter is TBD with NO STATS — disqualifying factor. Cannot assess first-half or full-game bets without knowing the opposing pitcher. Pass entirely.
ATH @ 
DET✓6:40 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
ATH @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jack Perkins R
xERA4.47 (avg)K%32.3 (elite)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA8.56IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs83BB%10.8
DET vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Framber Valdez L
xERA3.52 (good)K%14.5 (below avg)HH%41.0 (below avg)Barrel%6.6 (good)ERA5.29IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs90BB%5.3
ATH vs LHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+113+1.5 (-175)O9.0 (-102)DET-130-1.5 (+152)U9.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+106+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-140)DET-130-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)DETO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJack Perkins5.5 (-115 / -115)—Framber Valdez5.5 (+116 / -146)17.5 (-200 / +148)
Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs L3.29187477
L3.29187477Jun 27@ 
L5.08154122
L5.08154122Jun 21vs L5.07884244
L5.07884244Jun 16vs L5.08566233
L5.08566233Jun 10vs W4.08945333
W4.08945333Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2@ L5.08719255
L5.08719255Jun 27vs L6.08829044
L6.08829044Jun 22vs W6.09484211
W6.09484211Jun 16@ L6.09266301
L6.09266301Jun 10vs L5.07526244
L5.07526244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH6.52.086.56.03.5(2)
home starts5.74.764.06.31.3(3)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-2 vs DET this season (2 games).
- ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 5 straight.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 0-2 in Jack Perkins's last 2 away starts.
- ATH average 4.6 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 1.5 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 2 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-0 vs ATH this season (2 games).
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET have won 4 straight.
- DET are 1-4 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 4.2 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.8 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 5.03 (below avg)ERA 5.362d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 3.22 (good)ERA 4.622d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Overcast, Wind 11 mph W
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- ATH — Jack Perkins: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.03 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent opponents high-K: LAA 26%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- DET — Framber Valdez: 2026-07-02: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- DET — Framber Valdez: recent opponents low-K: HOU 14%, TEX 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
DET F5 ML -130 (-130)
Framber Valdez is pitching well: xERA 3.52, recent ERA 2.65 (adjusting for the one bad start flag), going 6+ IP in two of last three starts with 94/92 pitch counts. He has excellent history vs ATH (2gs, 2.08 ERA, 6.5 IP/gs). ATH's Jack Perkins has a recent ERA of 6.43, xERA 4.47, and is a clear liability. DET offense is solid vs RHP (wRC+ 106 L12). ATH bullpen xERA 5.03 is a disqualifier for full-game ATH bets. F5 is the correct vehicle: Valdez is the edge, capture it before ATH's pen becomes irrelevant and DET's average pen enters. -130 is at the line warning threshold.
SEA @ MIA✓6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
SEA @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Miller R
xERA1.65 (elite)K%41.9 (elite)HH%27.8 (elite)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA2.04IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs82BB%0.0
MIA vs RHP
wRC+171 (elite)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%39.3 (avg)
Janson Junk R
xERA3.63 (good)K%13.5 (below avg)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%6.6 (good)ERA9.19IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs8.7PC/gs93BB%4.0
SEA vs RHP
wRC+86 (below avg)K%26.8 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-125-1.5 (+135)O8.0 (-109)MIA+110+1.5 (-156)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-150-0.5 (-102)O4.5 (+102)MIA+120+0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-132)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)MIAO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-111)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Miller5.5 (-132 / +110)17.5 (-140 / +107)Janson Junk3.5 (-130 / +102)—
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2vs W7.09082000
W7.09082000Jun 25@ L5.290115033
L5.290115033Jun 19vs L5.06673011
L5.06673011Jun 12@ W8.09174022
W8.09174022Jun 6@ W6.09491200
W6.09491200Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 25@ W5.09338011
W5.09338011May 20vs L5.08638088
L5.08638088May 15@ L5.2100410377
L5.2100410377May 9vs W6.09467244
W6.09467244May 4vs L5.19265011
L5.19265011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA—
home starts5.47.275.06.70.7(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 0-2 vs MIA this season (2 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-2 in Bryce Miller's last 4 away starts.
- SEA average 3.6 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.5 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 4 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-0 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA have won 5 straight.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 3.8 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 3.6 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 3.41 (good)ERA 2.962d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
MIA
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 6.302d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- MIA bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SEA — Bryce Miller: recent opponents high-K: PIT 27%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- MIA — Janson Junk: 45 days since last start (2026-05-25) — may not be fully stretched out
SEA Team Total u4.5 (-125)
Bryce Miller is the best pitcher on the board by xERA (1.65, elite) with recent ERA 1.42 — he's locked in. SEA offense is below average (wRC+ 86 in L12) and will be the AWAY team, while MIA gets Janson Junk on the mound. The bet here is specifically on MIA holding SEA to few runs: Miller limits MIA, but the question is SEA's scoring. With Junk struggling (recent ERA 6.63, xERA 3.63, 45 days since last start) and MIA's elite offense (wRC+ 171), this game is likely to be lopsided — but SEA's scoring potential is capped by their below-average offense (wRC+ 86). SEA avg 3.6 RS in SP's recent starts. At -125, this is acceptable value for a team that scores under 4.5 runs frequently.
Bryce Miller o5.5 Ks (-132)
Bryce Miller is elite: xERA 1.65, K% 41.9%, recent ERA 1.42, averaging 7.7 K/start over his last 3. The flag notes recent high-K opponents (PIT 27%, LAA 26%), but MIA's K% vs RHP is 17.1% — lower than those. Calibrating down: adjusted expectation ~6.5–7.5 Ks vs MIA's contact-oriented lineup. That's still comfortably above the 5.5 line (~1.0–2.0 gap). The Outs line at 17.5 (-140) confirms market expects him to go deep. At -132, this is fair value for a pitcher with this elite profile.
PHI @ CIN✓7:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
PHI @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA1.81 (elite)K%38.4 (elite)HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.57IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs98BB%8.2
CIN vs LHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%22.5 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Brady Singer R
xERA3.86 (avg)K%27.1 (good)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)ERA3.86IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs99BB%10.0
PHI vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%43.1 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-163-1.5 (-102)O9.5 (+100)CIN+138+1.5 (-115)U9.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-166-0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-148)CIN+136+0.5 (-106)U4.5 (+114)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO5.5 (+110)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)CINO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJesus Luzardo7.5 (+100 / -112)17.5 (-138 / +113)Brady Singer4.5 (-160 / +130)15.5 (-118 / -112)
Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4@ W6.09594011
W6.09594011Jun 28@ W5.09664311
W5.09664311Jun 23@ W6.2104135315
W6.2104135315Jun 16vs W7.010695222
W7.010695222Jun 10@ W5.29684411
W5.29684411Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs L5.09363523
L5.09363523Jun 28@ L4.19869055
L4.19869055Jun 22vs L7.010672200
L7.010672200Jun 16vs W5.09153311
W5.09153311Jun 10@ L6.09556122
L6.09556122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.07.884.55.52.5(2)
at CIN—
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI6.00.006.03.00.0(1)
home starts5.71.596.02.73.3(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 2-3 vs CIN this season (5 games).
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 5-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 5-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 8.0 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 7.2 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-2 vs PHI this season (5 games).
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 2.8 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 2.4 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 7.362d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 4.25 (avg)ERA 3.832d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- CIN — Brady Singer: 2026-06-28: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CIN — Brady Singer: recent opponents high-K: PIT 27%, BAL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Jesus Luzardo o7.5 Ks (+100)
Luzardo is the most dominant pitcher on the board: xERA 1.81 (elite), K% 38.4%, recent ERA 1.96, averaging 10.0 K/start over his last 3. CIN has a 22.5% K rate vs LHP — above average, slightly below the strikeout-prone lineups he's recently torched (WSN/MIA/TOR), but still a favorable matchup. Adjusted K expectation ~9–10 per start. The line of 7.5 is significantly below his recent average. Outs line of 17.5 is -138, confirming the market expects him to go deep (5.8+ IP), giving him plenty of innings to accumulate strikeouts. Getting +100 on a line that should clear easily is excellent value.
MIL @ STL✓7:45 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
MIL @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Henderson R
xERA3.66 (good)K%31.7 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.9 (below avg)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs81BB%8.3
STL vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)HH%41.7 (above avg)
Andre Pallante R
xERA3.27 (good)K%10.5 (poor)HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%4.6 (elite)ERA2.95IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs95BB%2.6
MIL vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%45.9 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-132-1.5 (+126)O8.5 (-105)STL+115+1.5 (-149)U8.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-132-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-110)STL+106+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMILO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)STLO3.5 (-122)U3.5 (-104)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Henderson4.5 (-138 / +116)—Andre Pallante3.5 (-136 / +116)17.5 (-102 / -125)
Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 22vs W5.08572300
W5.08572300May 16@ W5.08476111
W5.08476111May 10vs W5.07454122
W5.07454122May 3@ L6.07683022
L6.07683022Apr 4@ L2.03533122
L2.03533122Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ W5.210225100
W5.210225100Jun 27vs L6.298411155
L6.298411155Jun 22vs W6.08526011
W6.08526011Jun 16vs W7.09264022
W7.09264022Jun 10@ W6.09353222
W6.09353222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.05.963.35.02.7(3)
home starts6.43.754.07.00.3(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 7-3 vs STL this season (10 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-3 in Logan Henderson's last 4 away starts.
- MIL average 3.0 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 1.5 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 4 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 3-7 vs MIL this season (10 games).
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 6.6 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.6 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.18 (elite)ERA 1.742d stress Fresh (7.3 IP/3g)
STL
xERA 2.99 (elite)ERA 3.612d stress Elevated (14.7 IP/3g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 2 mph SW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- MIL — Logan Henderson: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIL bullpen fresh (7.3 IP over 3g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- STL bullpen elevated (14.7 IP over 3g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — Logan Henderson: 48 days since last start (2026-05-22) — may not be fully stretched out
- MIL — Logan Henderson: recent opponents low-K: MIN 19%, LAD 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- STL — Andre Pallante: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- STL — Andre Pallante: 2026-06-27: 5 ER in 6.2 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — Andre Pallante: recent opponents low-K: ARI 19%, MIA 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
MIL @ STL u8.5 (-112)
Three clear under signals align: (1) Pallante has a recent ERA of 2.37 (adjusted for one bad start flag) with xERA 3.27 — legitimately solid. (2) STL offense is cold: wRC+ 71 vs RHP in L12. (3) MIL bullpen is elite: xERA 2.18, ERA 1.74 — best in today's slate; they will lock it down. Henderson is returning from 48 days off (concern) but MIL's pen covers. APF 101 is neutral. The key driver: STL is a poor offense (wRC+ 71) facing a solid pitcher backed by a shutdown bullpen, and MIL's offense (wRC+ 112) faces a steady Pallante who has a 2.37 recent ERA. Both teams averaging modest run support in Pallante's starts (avg 6.6 RS is skewed; home avg 3.6). Full-game under is justified given elite MIL bullpen holding the number.
LAA @ TEX8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
LAA @ TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Reid Detmers L
xERA4.83 (below avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%42.0 (below avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)ERA6.48IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs98BB%13.0
TEX vs LHP
wRC+165 (elite)K%17.7 (above avg)HH%30.0 (below avg)
Nathan Eovaldi R
xERA2.15 (elite)K%37.0 (elite)HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs90BB%4.1
LAA vs RHP
wRC+74 (poor)K%25.6 (below avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+115+1.5 (-190)O7.0 (-113)TEX-132-1.5 (+172)U7.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+105+0.5 (-154)O3.5 (-120)TEX-122-0.5 (+118)U3.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULAAO3.5 (+105)U3.5 (-128)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)TEXO3.5 (-111)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UReid Detmers6.5 (+114 / -140)17.5 (-158 / +124)Nathan Eovaldi7.5 (+118 / +126)18.5 (+116 / -150)
Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs L5.010457355
L5.010457355Jun 27vs W5.29984322
W5.29984322Jun 21@ W6.09046455
W6.09046455Jun 16@ W7.09034000
W7.09034000Jun 10vs W7.08991011
W7.08991011Nathan Eovaldi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2vs W5.08596133
W5.08596133Jun 26@ W7.09295100
W7.09295100Jun 21vs W6.09497133
W6.09497133Jun 14@ W7.09466133
W7.09466133Jun 9@ L5.28834344
L5.28834344SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX8.01.1214.01.00.0(1)
at TEX—
Nathan Eovaldi
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.71.805.35.31.3(3)
home starts6.05.508.05.71.3(3)
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-1 vs TEX this season (5 games).
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 4-1 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 3-2 in Reid Detmers's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 5.2 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 6.4 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 1-4 vs LAA this season (5 games).
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 4-1 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 5.6 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.8 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 4.472d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 5.722d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- LAA — Reid Detmers: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TEX bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAA — Reid Detmers: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
Detmers is hot recently (recent ERA 2.70) vs an elite TEX offense (wRC+ 165 vs LHP) — these forces conflict sharply and make the under unattractive. Eovaldi is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.95) despite elite xERA (2.15). TEX home ERA for Eovaldi is 5.50 historically. Total at 7.0 is already set low for what could be a run-scoring game, and the market seems aware. No clear edge that isn't already priced in.
ARI @ SDP9:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
ARI @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Merrill Kelly R
xERA7.61 (poor)K%14.1 (below avg)HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA5.29IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs94BB%9.0
SDP vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%35.4 (avg)
Griffin Canning R
xERA3.81 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA7.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs11.0PC/gs63BB%11.4
ARI vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+110-1.5 (+172)O9.0 (+101)SDP-125-1.5 (+165)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-104+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-144)SDP-120-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)SDPO4.5 (+104)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMerrill Kelly3.5 (-164 / +132)17.5 (-136 / +110)Griffin Canning4.5 (+132 / +120)—
Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4vs W5.09268222
W5.09268222Jun 28@ L6.09338255
L6.09338255Jun 22@ L6.09627333
L6.09627333Jun 16vs L5.188411166
L5.188411166Jun 11@ L6.07414222
L6.07414222Griffin Canning · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4@ L4.0*7342211
L4.0*7342211Jun 29@ L4.17535222
L4.17535222Jun 23vs W0.2*4024144
W0.2*4024144Jun 17@ W4.1*7724311
W4.1*7724311Jun 12@ L5.09366577
L5.09366577SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP6.03.755.55.50.5(2)
at SDP7.01.294.04.00.0(1)
Griffin Canning
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.01.806.06.01.0(1)
home starts5.63.215.53.02.5(2)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-3 vs SDP this season (5 games).
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 1.4 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 2.2 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-2 vs ARI this season (5 games).
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-4 in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Griffin Canning's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 2.0 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 2.2 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.37 (good)ERA 3.182d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
SDP
xERA 4.46 (avg)ERA 7.572d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
69°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: 2026-06-28: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SDP — Griffin Canning: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-04, 2026-06-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SDP — Griffin Canning: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SDP — Griffin Canning: 2026-06-12: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling (Kelly recent ERA 5.79, Canning recent ERA 12.60 with flags noting the 7-ER start skews it), but the total lines are split (O9.0/U8.5 with no clear consensus), Canning has bullpen appearances and a last-start 40-pitch outing suggesting possible injury concern, and SDP bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.46, ERA 7.57) — too many unknowns on both sides to find a clean edge.
COL @ SFG9:45 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
COL @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Feltner R
xERA2.78 (elite)K%15.5 (below avg)HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%5.4 (good)ERA2.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%5.6
SFG vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)
C. Whisenhunt L
xERA4.06 (avg)K%8.7 (poor)HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs85BB%8.7
COL vs LHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%27.9 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+113+1.5 (-190)O8.5 (-103)SFG-130-1.5 (+168)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+106+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-113)SFG-132-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCOLO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+106)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)SFGO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-146)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Feltner3.5 (-150 / +126)16.5 (-112 / -112)C. Whisenhunt3.5 (-121 / -104)—
Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs W6.08896023
W6.08896023Jun 28@ L6.08205012
L6.08205012Jun 22vs W6.09324422
W6.09324422Jun 16@ W4.210476322
W4.210476322Jun 11vs L4.17534366
L4.17534366C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 17@ W5.08526222
W5.08526222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.01.505.55.00.0(2)
at SFG—
C. Whisenhunt
IPERAKHBB
vs COL—
home starts4.76.433.75.02.7(3)
Trends · COL
- COL are 4-2 vs SFG this season (6 games).
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 3-2 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-3 in Ryan Feltner's last 4 away starts.
- COL average 5.6 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.2 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 4 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-4 vs COL this season (6 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 1-0 in C. Whisenhunt's last 1 starts.
- SFG average 7.0 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 1 starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.26 (avg)ERA 4.192d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 5.402d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Windy
64°F, Clear, Wind 18 mph W
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- SFG bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- COL — Ryan Feltner: high-K outing 2026-07-03 (9 Ks vs avg 3.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: 22 days since last start (2026-06-17) — may not be fully stretched out
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 18 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
AI Analysis
Wind blowing out 18mph is a meaningful weather factor favoring offense, but Whisenhunt has a tiny sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — essentially NO STATS territory for reliable analysis. Feltner is struggling recently (recent ERA 6.29) despite elite xERA (2.78). The combination of unreliable Whisenhunt data and weather-inflated total makes this too uncertain.