TBR @ 
CLE8:08 PM · Progressive FieldCold
TBR @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Nick Martinez R
xERA3.35 (good)ERA5.84 (poor)K%19.6 (avg)Whiff%19.4 (avg)BB%5.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.5 (below)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs72
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%16.8 (elite)BB%10.5 (above)HH%32.5 (below)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%18.9 (above)BB%12.4 (elite)HH%37.7 (avg)
Tanner Bibee RO
xERA4.65 (below)ERA9.00 (poor)K%17.0 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)BB%5.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs5.5 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs95
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+26 (poor)K%25.2 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)BB%3.5 (poor)HH%38.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+79 (poor)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%21.3 (avg)BB%5.7 (poor)HH%41.2 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 3.57 (good)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 3.27 (good)ERA 2.67 (elite)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-114-1.5 (+160)O6.5 (-110)CLE-102+1.5 (-192)U6.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-120-0.5 (+122)O3.5 (-108)CLE+105+0.5 (-160)U3.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR3.5 (+114/-135)1.5 (-125/-105)CLE2.5 (-154/+122)1.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNick Martinez2.5 (+135 / -157)12.5 (+115 / +102)Tanner Bibee——
Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ 
L2.25017144
L2.25017144Sep 22 '26@ 
L6.09475122
L6.09475122Sep 16 '26vs 
W5.07235022
W5.07235022Sep 10 '26@ 
L6.16832000
L6.16832000Sep 4 '26@ 
W6.19045233
W6.19045233Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26 '26@ 
W6.09467133
W6.09467133Sep 19 '26vs W4.295212066
W4.295212066Sep 13 '26@ 
W6.29674222
W6.29674222Sep 8 '26@ 
W4.16216155
W4.16216155Sep 3 '26vs 
L4.08944555
L4.08944555SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.50.00elite4.53.50.5(2)
at CLE7.00.00elite4.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25 '26vs W6.08454000
W6.08454000Apr 28 '26@ W7.07843100
W7.07843100Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.73.14good4.76.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25 '26@ L6.010759233
L6.010759233Apr 28 '26vs L5.09364311
L5.09364311Sep 6 '25@ W6.29235122
W6.29235122home starts4.77.61poor3.77.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19 '26vs W4.295212066
W4.295212066Sep 3 '26vs L4.08944555
L4.08944555Aug 28 '26vs L6.09357211
L6.09357211Trends · TBR
- TBR are 6-4 vs CLE this season (10 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-3 in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 3.0 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 2.8 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-6 vs TBR this season (10 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 4-1 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-4 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 8.8 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 4.0 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 5-0 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-0 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Cold
45°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph SW
APF 94 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 11
- OPENER: CLE start Shawn Armstrong (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 0.7 IP (longest 1.0)), with Tanner Bibee (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — TBR's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- TBR bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
- CLE bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
- TBR — Nick Martinez: 20 days since last start (2026-09-27) news ↗
- TBR — Nick Martinez: last start: 50 pitches over 2.2 IP news ↗
- TBR — Nick Martinez: 2026-09-27: 4 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.30 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 21 days since last start (2026-09-26) news ↗
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 2026-09-19: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.70 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: low-K outing 2026-09-19 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- TREND: TBR — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-10-16)
- TREND: CLE — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-10-16)
AI Analysis
The side and total both pull in two directions at once. Cleveland's offense is legitimately elite against right-handers (137 wRC+ over its last 6, backed up by 132 over its last 12), but Nick Martinez has faced this exact club twice this season and thrown 6-7 shutout innings both times, which cuts hard against betting Cleveland's team total or the game over. On the other side, Tampa Bay's lineup is ice cold against righties (26 wRC+ over its last 6, well down even from its own softer 79 over the last 12), but the pitcher they face, Tanner Bibee, has a 9.00 ERA over his last three outings and is coming off a 21-day layoff behind an opener, which argues for more Tampa Bay runs rather than fewer. With the offense and pitching signals canceling out on both sides of the lineup, none of the moneyline, spread, game total or either team total offers a clear enough edge over the posted numbers. The pitcher props are no cleaner: Martinez's outs line of 12.5 and K line of 2.5 already price in his 20-day rust and his 2.2-inning, 50-pitch disaster last time out, and Cleveland's own low 19.1% strikeout rate over its last 6 vs RHP means the market's lean to the under on his Ks is already the right side at a price that doesn't leave room to beat it. Tanner Bibee/Shawn Armstrong carry no posted prop lines on this card, so there is nothing to grade on that side of the staff.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.