AI Picks · 12 Bets · Aug 22
NYM ML (+100)
New York's lineup sits at 128 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, matching its 130 over the last 12, and it just tagged Luis Castillo for 6 ER in 4 IP a week ago. Christian Scott's 3.85 xERA over his last 3 is masked by a 5.87 ERA inflated against high-strikeout lineups, while Chicago's offense has cooled to 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 from 107 over its last 12. Getting the superior offense and the underrated starter at even money underprices the Mets.
Found at 3:59 AM ET
Christian Scott o6.5 Ks (+122)
Scott has a 27.8% K rate with a matching 29.8% whiff over his last 3, striking out 7, 6, and 7 in those outings. The White Sox whiff at 29.2% vs RHP over their last 6 against just a 21.1% K rate, a gap that points to more strikeouts than their surface number shows, and his 15.5 outs line gives him the length. Plus money on that pairing is priced too cheaply.
Found at 3:59 AM ET
David Peterson o4.5 Ks (+105)
Peterson has struck out 8, 3, and 6 over his last 3 starts (5.7 K/start) working 5.7 IP/gs. Seattle carries a 24.8 K% vs LHP over their last 6 with a 79 wRC+, a strikeout-prone lineup that lets him work deep. Plus money on a starter averaging well above this number against a whiffing offense is the edge.
Found at 10:14 AM ET
BOS Team Total o4.5 (-111)
Boston is scorching at a 167 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, backed by a 130 wRC+ over their last 12, so this is established form rather than a one-series spike. Tidwell has been squared up hard with a 45.6 HH% over his last 3 starts and a 5.40 ERA, and he threw only 63 pitches last time. An elite home offense against a hittable righty should push past this team total.
Found at 10:14 AM ET
LAD -1.5 (-111)
Skubal brings a 2.97 xERA and 26.4 K% over his last 3 starts against a Pittsburgh lineup that has cooled to an 88 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and scored just 1.0 run per game across his club's last five starts. The Dodgers' 109 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 gets Jones, whose 5.80 xERA over his last 3 flags a hittable arm. At -250 on the moneyline the runline captures the same lopsided matchup at a fair price.
Found at 10:14 AM ET
BOS -1.5 (+105)
Boston's bats are mashing right-handed pitching at a 167 wRC+ over their last 6 and 130 over their last 12 — both windows elite and in agreement — while San Francisco is stuck at a 52 wRC+ vs lefties over their last 6 with a 34.6 K% and 43 wRC+ over their last 12. Blade Tidwell carries a 5.40 ERA over his last 3 and is giving up a 45.6 HH% over that stretch, and Boston has averaged 9.0 runs per home game behind their starter. San Francisco simply cannot generate offense here, and getting the run line at plus money on the far superior lineup facing a hittable arm is more value than the -204 moneyline offers.
Found at 4:21 PM ET
Tanner Bibee o4.5 Ks (-105)
Colorado is striking out at a 25.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6, a lineup that gives Bibee a soft spot as he works a 22.4 K% and 24.0 Whiff% over his last 3 while going a full 6.0 IP/gs. His recent K totals of 4 and 3 came against DET (17%) and SDP (18%), unusually low-strikeout lineups, so those numbers understate what he does against a whiff-prone Colorado club. With the length to reach it and a higher-strikeout opponent than his line reflects, the 4.5 is set too low at -105.
Found at 4:21 PM ET
Dean Kremer o4.5 Ks (+102)
Kremer's 2.59 xERA over his last 3 starts comes with a 28.4 Whiff% and 5.8 IP/gs. San Diego's 26.0 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6 sits well above their 17.6 K%, meaning their strikeout rate is due to rise against a starter who misses bats at this rate. Plus money on a whiff-heavy arm working near six innings against a swing-and-miss lineup is undervalued.
Found at 10:14 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Dylan Cease o8.5 Ks (-111)
Cease carries a 37.5 K% and 30.6 Whiff% over his last 3 starts with 10, 7, 10 strikeouts, and he has piled up 9.3 K per start across 3 meetings with the Yankees (9, 9, 10). NYY sits at a 31.3 K% vs RHP over their last 6 with a 79 wRC+, one of the most strikeout-prone lineups on the board. The 8.5 line underprices an elite whiff arm against a lineup that hands out strikeouts at this rate.
Found at 10:14 AM ET
ATL Team Total u3.5 (-130)
Henderson brings a 2.55 xERA and 29.6 K% over his last 3 starts and works 6.4 IP/gs, then hands off to a Milwaukee bullpen at a 2.61 xERA over its last 12. Atlanta's bats are stuck at a 62 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, confirmed by a 58 wRC+ over their last 12, and they average just 3.0 runs on the road. An established-cold lineup facing an elite starter and a shutdown pen should struggle to clear four.
Found at 10:14 AM ET
WSN @ MIA u7.5 (-102)
Eury Perez carries a 2.54 xERA over his last 3 and goes 6.0 IP/gs against a Washington lineup at 50 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, down from 86 over its last 12 and cratering. Jake Irvin's 3.92 xERA over his last 3 is far better than his 6.75 ERA suggests, so Miami's average 106 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 projects to a modest total, and both bullpens sit in the 3s. The number is priced for a normal run environment when one lineup is collapsing against an elite arm.
Found at 3:59 AM ET
Eury Perez o6.5 Ks (+108)
Perez has a 29.6% K rate backed by a 32.2% whiff over his last 3, averaging 7.0 strikeouts per start (9, 7, 5), and works 6.0 IP/gs. Washington whiffs at a 26.1% clip vs RHP over its last 6, and he punched out 7 of them in their most recent meeting. Plus money on a whiff-supported strikeout arm facing a high-strikeout lineup with the innings to get there is value.
Found at 3:59 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
TOR @ 
NYY✓1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
TOR @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Dylan Cease R
xERA1.89 (elite)ERA2.45 (elite)K%37.5 (elite)Whiff%30.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%29.7 (elite)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs106BB%11.1 (below)
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+79 (poor)K%31.3 (poor)Whiff%27.0 (below)HH%45.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+82 (below)K%27.9 (below)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%47.2 (elite)
Ryan Weathers L
xERA2.86 (elite)ERA0.95 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.0 (good)Barrel%4.0 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs91BB%7.2 (avg)
TOR vs LHP
L6
wRC+162 (elite)K%19.7 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%25.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%19.3 (poor)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 2.49 (elite)ERA 2.72 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 2.44 (elite)ERA 1.55 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-2400-3.5 (+191)O6.5 (+136)NYY+1800+2.5 (+225)U5.5 (+150)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-122-0.5 (+122)O3.5 (-102)NYY-102+0.5 (-160)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (+106/-130)1.5 (-115/-115)NYY3.5 (+122/-145)1.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDylan Cease8.5 (-111 / -107)17.5 (-176 / +134)Ryan Weathers5.5 (+112 / -133)17.5 (-132 / +105)
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ W6.211182511
W6.211182511Aug 16vs L6.1104102322
L6.1104102322Aug 11vs 
W5.010475433
W5.010475433Aug 6@ 
L7.0104102100
L7.0104102100Jul 31vs 
W6.09673311
W6.09673311Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs L3.17238022
L3.17238022Aug 16@ W7.19546111
W7.19546111Aug 11vs 
W5.210642311
W5.210642311Aug 4vs W6.08864100
W6.08864100Jul 30@ 
L7.010643300
L7.010643300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.84.16avg9.02.74.0(3)
at NYY5.83.62good8.72.33.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ W6.211182511
W6.211182511Aug 16vs L6.1104102322
L6.1104102322May 19@ L5.010094455
L5.010094455May 7@ L6.28991211
L6.28991211Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.85.66poor3.06.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs L3.17238022
L3.17238022Aug 16@ W7.19546111
W7.19546111Jun 12@ L4.18225166
L4.18225166home starts4.81.89elite4.34.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs L3.17238022
L3.17238022Aug 11vs W5.210642311
W5.210642311Aug 4vs W6.08864100
W6.08864100Trends · TOR
- TOR are 5-6 vs NYY this season (11 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 3.8 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 4.0 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 4-1 to the over in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-0 to the over in Dylan Cease's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 6-5 vs TOR this season (11 games).
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY have won 5 straight.
- NYY are 4-1 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.6 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 1-4 to the over in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-2 to the over in Ryan Weathers's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 1 mph NE
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- TOR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
Dylan Cease o8.5 Ks (-111)
Cease carries a 37.5 K% and 30.6 Whiff% over his last 3 starts with 10, 7, 10 strikeouts, and he has piled up 9.3 K per start across 3 meetings with the Yankees (9, 9, 10). NYY sits at a 31.3 K% vs RHP over their last 6 with a 79 wRC+, one of the most strikeout-prone lineups on the board. The 8.5 line underprices an elite whiff arm against a lineup that hands out strikeouts at this rate.
ATL @ 
MIL✓2:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
ATL @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Martin Perez L
xERA3.57 (good)ERA2.57 (elite)K%14.0 (below)Whiff%17.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs87BB%10.5 (below)
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+118 (above)K%25.9 (below)Whiff%26.6 (below)HH%47.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%28.0 (poor)Whiff%27.4 (below)HH%44.2 (above)
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.55 (elite)ERA2.79 (elite)K%29.6 (elite)Whiff%28.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%44.7 (below)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs95BB%4.2 (elite)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+62 (poor)K%25.7 (below)Whiff%20.9 (above)HH%41.7 (above)
L12
wRC+58 (poor)K%26.5 (below)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%41.8 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.29 (good)ERA 3.52 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 2.61 (elite)ERA 1.70 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+1000+2.5 (+139)O6.5 (-124)MIL-1300-2.5 (-175)U6.5 (+115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+150+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (+108)MIL-188-0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (+104/-130)1.5 (-105/-125)MIL4.5 (+118/-135)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMartin Perez3.5 (-105 / -111)14.5 (-180 / +140)Logan Henderson6.5 (-113 / -111)17.5 (-108 / -101)
Martin Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L4.09724314
L4.09724314Aug 17@ 
L5.08239244
L5.08239244Aug 11vs 
W6.08224300
W6.08224300Aug 6vs 
W3.03530100
W3.03530100Aug 1vs 
W7.07861200
W7.07861200Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W6.010045211
W6.010045211Aug 16@ 
W7.09363111
W7.09363111Aug 10@ 
L6.19175133
L6.19175133Aug 4vs 
W6.08384122
W6.08384122Jul 28@ 
W5.29372200
W5.29372200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Martin Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.01.80elite3.55.02.5(2)
at MIL4.02.25elite2.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L4.09724314
L4.09724314Jun 19vs W6.08256211
W6.08256211Logan Henderson
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.01.50elite4.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W6.010045211
W6.010045211home starts5.72.65elite7.04.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs W6.010045211
W6.010045211Aug 4vs W6.08384122
W6.08384122Jul 22vs W5.08095022
W5.08095022Trends · ATL
- ATL are 2-2 vs MIL this season (4 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-3 in Martin Perez's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 5.6 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.0 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 3-2 to the over in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-1 to the over in Martin Perez's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-2 vs ATL this season (4 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in Logan Henderson's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 3.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 0-3 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 12 mph NW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- ATL offense: K% 25.7 (last 6) is well above what Whiff% 20.9 supports — strikeout rate looks due for positive regression (fewer Ks)
- MIL bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL — Martin Perez: 2026-08-17: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATL Team Total u3.5 (-130)
Henderson brings a 2.55 xERA and 29.6 K% over his last 3 starts and works 6.4 IP/gs, then hands off to a Milwaukee bullpen at a 2.61 xERA over its last 12. Atlanta's bats are stuck at a 62 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, confirmed by a 58 wRC+ over their last 12, and they average just 3.0 runs on the road. An established-cold lineup facing an elite starter and a shutdown pen should struggle to clear four.
WSN @ MIA✓4:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
WSN @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jake Irvin R
xERA3.92 (avg)ERA6.75 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs62BB%10.8 (below)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+123 (above)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%35.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%40.5 (above)
Eury Perez R
xERA2.54 (elite)ERA2.00 (elite)K%29.6 (elite)Whiff%32.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs71BB%12.7 (below)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+64 (poor)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%34.3 (below)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%21.8 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 4.00 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 3.04 (good)ERA 4.87 (below)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+195+1.5 (-125)O7.5 (+111)MIA-220-1.5 (+100)U6.5 (+108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+154+0.5 (+100)O4.5 (+110)MIA-195-0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (+116/-140)1.5 (-105/-125)MIA4.5 (+106/-135)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Irvin4.5 (-104 / -115)15.5 (-110 / -115)Eury Perez6.5 (+112 / -132)17.5 (-185 / +145)
Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ L0.0*000000
L0.0*000000Aug 16@ L6.09868344
L6.09868344Aug 11vs L3.18844255
L3.18844255Aug 5@ 
W5.18333222
W5.18333222Jul 30@ L5.06113255
L5.06113255Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs L0.21400100
L0.21400100Aug 16@ 
W6.010052500
W6.010052500Aug 11vs W7.010073200
W7.010073200Aug 5@ L5.09197244
L5.09197244Jul 30@ L6.09763212
L6.09763212SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jake Irvin
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.05.40poor4.05.00.0(1)
at MIA5.05.40poor4.05.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 10@ L5.07445034
L5.07445034Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN3.19.57poor3.05.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs L0.21400100
L0.21400100Sep 10vs W5.29677033
W5.29677033Sep 3@ L4.07628177
L4.07628177home starts4.71.90elite3.03.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs L0.21400100
L0.21400100Aug 11vs W7.010073200
W7.010073200Jul 25vs L7.010427133
L7.010427133Trends · WSN
- WSN are 1-6 vs MIA this season (7 games).
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 2-3 in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 3-2 in Jake Irvin's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 5.0 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 5.4 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Jake Irvin's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 6-1 vs WSN this season (7 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Eury Perez's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 2.8 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 2.2 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 to the over in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-2 to the over in Eury Perez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- MIA — Eury Perez: 2026-08-05: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIA — Eury Perez: recent opponents high-K: ATL 26%, CIN 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
WSN @ MIA u7.5 (-102)
Eury Perez carries a 2.54 xERA over his last 3 and goes 6.0 IP/gs against a Washington lineup at 50 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, down from 86 over its last 12 and cratering. Jake Irvin's 3.92 xERA over his last 3 is far better than his 6.75 ERA suggests, so Miami's average 106 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 projects to a modest total, and both bullpens sit in the 3s. The number is priced for a normal run environment when one lineup is collapsing against an elite arm.
Eury Perez o6.5 Ks (+108)
Perez has a 29.6% K rate backed by a 32.2% whiff over his last 3, averaging 7.0 strikeouts per start (9, 7, 5), and works 6.0 IP/gs. Washington whiffs at a 26.1% clip vs RHP over its last 6, and he punched out 7 of them in their most recent meeting. Plus money on a whiff-supported strikeout arm facing a high-strikeout lineup with the innings to get there is value.
STL @ PHI6:05 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
STL @ PHIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Quinn Mathews L
xERA2.89 (elite)ERA3.00 (good)K%24.4 (good)Whiff%27.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%24.0 (elite)Barrel%4.0 (elite)IP/gs4.5 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs96BB%14.6 (poor)
PHI vs LHP
L6
wRC+117 (above)K%12.7 (elite)Whiff%19.5 (above)HH%34.4 (below)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%16.0 (above)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%34.7 (below)
Andrew Painter R
xERA3.81 (avg)ERA5.02 (below)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%24.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%2.5 (elite)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs83BB%11.5 (below)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%39.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 3.95 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.53 (good)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+148+1.5 (-144)O9.0 (+100)PHI-159-1.5 (+130)U9.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+110+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-138)PHI-135-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (-128/+105)2.5 (+120/-154)PHI4.5 (-120/-105)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UQuinn Mathews4.5 (-111 / -101)14.5 (-176 / +132)Andrew Painter3.5 (-154 / +134)15.5 (+110 / -135)
Quinn Mathews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ W4.09572311
W4.09572311Aug 1@ L5.09736322
L5.09736322Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ W5.09426355
W5.09426355Aug 10@ W5.19362322
W5.19362322Aug 5vs L4.06343111
L4.06343111Jul 31@ 
L6.08263322
L6.08263322Jun 17vs L2.05636266
L2.05636266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Painter
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.13.53good6.02.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ W5.19362322
W5.19362322home starts3.411.47poor3.75.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L4.06343111
L4.06343111Jun 17vs L2.05636266
L2.05636266Jun 6vs L4.29348266
L4.29348266Trends · STL
- STL are 2-2 vs PHI this season (4 games).
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 1-2 in Quinn Mathews's last 3 starts.
- STL are 1-2 in Quinn Mathews's last 3 away starts.
- STL average 1.0 runs/game in Quinn Mathews's last 3 starts.
- STL average 1.0 runs/game in Quinn Mathews's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 0-2 to the over in Quinn Mathews's last 2 starts.
- STL are 0-2 to the over in Quinn Mathews's last 2 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 2-2 vs STL this season (4 games).
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI have won 7 straight.
- PHI are 2-3 in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-4 in Andrew Painter's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 5.0 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 3.4 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-1 to the over in Andrew Painter's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph E
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- PHI — Andrew Painter: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PHI — Andrew Painter: 2026-08-16: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Mathews' elite 2.89 xERA over his last 3 faces a Philadelphia lineup humming at a 117 wRC+ vs lefties over their last 6, a genuine conflict that leaves no clean side at this price.
TBR @ BAL7:05 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
TBR @ BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Shane McClanahan L
xERA3.75 (avg)ERA3.97 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%30.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%48.4 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs3.8 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs59BB%8.9 (avg)
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%53.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+115 (above)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%24.7 (avg)HH%44.5 (above)
Brandon Young R
xERA4.39 (avg)ERA5.02 (below)K%16.2 (below)Whiff%23.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs95BB%8.8 (avg)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+101 (avg)K%19.7 (above)Whiff%21.3 (avg)HH%32.4 (below)
L12
wRC+134 (elite)K%14.1 (elite)Whiff%17.3 (elite)HH%33.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 4.36 (avg)ERA 5.63 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 2.78 (elite)ERA 4.30 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-122-1.5 (+130)O8.0 (-105)BAL+116+1.5 (-150)U8.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-125-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (+100)BAL+108+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR4.5 (+116/-135)1.5 (-160/+124)BAL3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane McClanahan4.5 (-102 / -115)12.5 (-131 / -101)Brandon Young3.5 (-139 / +110)17.5 (-112 / -118)
Shane McClanahan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W3.15734033
W3.15734033Jul 30vs 
W3.04930211
W3.04930211Jul 24vs 
W5.07132211
W5.07132211Jul 19@ L5.08735356
L5.08735356Jul 8vs W6.18554000
W6.18554000Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L4.08238144
L4.08238144Aug 11@ W6.010446312
W6.010446312Aug 6vs 
L4.19846233
L4.19846233Jul 31vs W5.29455244
W5.29455244Jul 25vs W6.19464211
W6.19464211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane McClanahan
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.44.77below4.04.31.3(3)
at BAL5.10.00elite3.03.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W3.15734033
W3.15734033May 25@ L5.18433200
L5.18433200May 18vs W5.09066244
W5.09066244Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR4.09.00poor3.08.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L4.08238144
L4.08238144home starts5.14.68below5.05.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs L4.19846233
L4.19846233Jul 31vs W5.29455244
W5.29455244Jul 25vs W6.19464211
W6.19464211Trends · TBR
- TBR are 4-7 vs BAL this season (11 games).
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 4-1 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-4 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 5.0 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 3.0 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 7-4 vs TBR this season (11 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 4.2 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 3.6 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 0-3 to the over in Brandon Young's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph ESE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: avg 3.8 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: Whiff% 30.5 (last 3 starts) is well above what K% 20.0 shows — his strikeout rate looks undervalued, more Ks may be due
- BAL — Brandon Young: Whiff% 23.5 (last 3 starts) is well above what K% 16.2 shows — his strikeout rate looks undervalued, more Ks may be due
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: last start: 57 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: 2026-08-17: 3 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BAL — Brandon Young: 2026-08-17: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
Two short-outing starters with bloated recent samples and both offenses cooling off leave the total and sides fairly priced.
LAA @ TEX7:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
LAA @ TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ryan Johnson R
xERA5.86 (poor)ERA2.51 (elite)K%16.7 (below)Whiff%17.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below)Barrel%17.5 (poor)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs82BB%15.0 (poor)
TEX vs RHP
L6
wRC+76 (poor)K%35.0 (poor)Whiff%27.7 (below)HH%45.2 (elite)
L12
wRC+59 (poor)K%28.0 (poor)Whiff%24.8 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Cody Bradford L
xERA5.29 (poor)ERA2.93 (elite)K%15.4 (below)Whiff%21.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.0 (below)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs75BB%6.2 (good)
LAA vs LHP
L6
wRC+45 (poor)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%28.7 (poor)HH%36.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+65 (poor)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%26.8 (below)HH%37.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 3.69 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 4.91 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+149+1.5 (-149)O8.5 (+105)TEX-158-1.5 (+130)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+146+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-120)TEX-180-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (-108/-118)1.5 (-130/+100)TEX4.5 (+104/-130)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Johnson3.5 (-154 / +129)15.5 (+155 / +135)Cody Bradford4.5 (-142 / +122)17.5 (-104 / -121)
Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs 
L5.18545222
L5.18545222Aug 11vs W4.18453211
W4.18453211Aug 6@ W4.27813511
W4.27813511Jul 31vs L4.18836355
L4.18836355Jul 25@ L3.16948188
L3.16948188Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ 
L4.08148122
L4.08148122Aug 11@ L7.07515133
L7.07515133Aug 5vs W4.17055200
W4.17055200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX4.12.20elite5.03.02.0(1)
at TEX—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs W4.18453211
W4.18453211Cody Bradford
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA7.03.86avg1.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ L7.07515133
L7.07515133home starts4.10.00elite5.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs W4.17055200
W4.17055200Trends · LAA
- LAA are 7-4 vs TEX this season (11 games).
- LAA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 2-3 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-4 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 2.2 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 2.2 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 1-4 to the over in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-1 to the over in Ryan Johnson's last 2 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 4-7 vs LAA this season (11 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 1-2 in Cody Bradford's last 3 starts.
- TEX are 1-0 in Cody Bradford's last 1 home starts.
- TEX average 3.3 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 3 starts.
- TEX average 6.0 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 0-3 to the over in Cody Bradford's last 3 starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- LAA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- LAA — Ryan Johnson: recent opponents high-K: BAL 25%, TEX 35% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TEX — Cody Bradford: recent opponents high-K: SFG 35%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
Both starters carry ugly underlying numbers over their last 3 while both offenses are poor, leaving too much noise to price the total or either team total confidently.
ATH @ 
HOU7:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
ATH @ HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jacob Lopez L
xERA2.29 (elite)ERA3.00 (good)K%28.6 (elite)Whiff%27.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%19.6 (elite)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs91BB%5.7 (good)
HOU vs LHP
L6
wRC+167 (elite)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%12.0 (elite)HH%40.9 (above)
L12
wRC+63 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%34.5 (below)
Hunter Brown R
xERA3.81 (avg)ERA4.50 (below)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%20.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%14.7 (poor)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+104 (avg)K%13.2 (elite)Whiff%21.8 (avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+101 (avg)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%33.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 4.46 (avg)ERA 6.25 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.75 (avg)ERA 4.02 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+223+1.5 (-102)O8.0 (-105)HOU-235-1.5 (-110)U8.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+186+1.5 (-154)O4.5 (+100)HOU-238-1.5 (+118)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH2.5 (-142/+114)1.5 (+105/-135)HOU4.5 (-120/-106)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJacob Lopez4.5 (-107 / -102)15.5 (-108 / -114)Hunter Brown5.5 (-125 / +111)17.5 (-127 / -104)
Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs W6.09365222
W6.09365222Aug 10vs L7.09355122
L7.09355122Aug 5@ L5.08794122
L5.08794122Jul 29vs L5.19787212
L5.19787212Jul 24@ W5.09141400
W5.09141400Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L5.09053522
L5.09053522Aug 11@ L5.08945333
L5.08945333Aug 5vs L6.09383233
L6.09383233Jul 31vs W5.210456222
W5.210456222Jul 25@ W7.09072000
W7.09072000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU4.72.54elite6.33.04.0(3)
at HOU4.10.00elite4.02.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 5vs W4.19263533
W4.19263533Jul 26@ W4.19542400
W4.19542400Jun 19vs W6.09594311
W6.09594311Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.33.38good6.05.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24@ L5.08656244
L5.08656244Jul 26vs L5.09854211
L5.09854211May 27vs W6.08886011
W6.08886011home starts5.43.89avg6.04.03.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L5.09053522
L5.09053522Aug 5vs L6.09383233
L6.09383233Jul 31vs W5.210456222
W5.210456222Trends · ATH
- ATH are 3-4 vs HOU this season (7 games).
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 5 straight.
- ATH are 2-3 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 3-2 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 away starts.
- ATH average 3.4 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.6 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in Jacob Lopez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 4-3 vs ATH this season (7 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 2-3 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 2-3 in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 4.4 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.8 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 2-3 to the over in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 2-1 to the over in Hunter Brown's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- ATH offense: Whiff% 21.8 (last 6) is well above what K% 13.2 shows — strikeout rate may be undervalued, more Ks could be due
- HOU offense: K% 21.4 (last 6) is well above what Whiff% 12.0 supports — strikeout rate looks due for positive regression (fewer Ks)
- ATH bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- HOU bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TREND: ATH — was shut out 4-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
Lopez's strong history against Houston is real, but the Astros are scorching at a 167 wRC+ vs lefties over their last 6 and Oakland's bullpen has been a disaster at a 6.25 ERA over their last 12, muddying any underdog value.
NYM @ CHW✓7:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
NYM @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Christian Scott R
xERA3.85 (avg)ERA5.87 (poor)K%27.8 (good)Whiff%29.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs89BB%6.9 (good)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+76 (poor)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%29.7 (poor)HH%35.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%22.0 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%39.7 (avg)
Luis Castillo R
xERA4.32 (avg)ERA4.60 (below)K%24.6 (good)Whiff%36.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%42.2 (below)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs91BB%6.2 (good)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+108 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%21.8 (avg)HH%39.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+125 (above)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%41.5 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 2.90 (elite)
CHW
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 2.80 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+103-1.5 (+159)O8.5 (-110)CHW-110+1.5 (-188)U8.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM-110-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-102)CHW-110+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM4.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (-166/+130)CHW4.5 (+110/+120)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChristian Scott5.5 (-161 / +134)15.5 (+102 / -135)Luis Castillo4.5 (-113 / -110)17.5 (-102 / -120)
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs W6.19075233
W6.19075233Aug 10@ W4.08267144
W4.08267144Aug 5@ W5.09676233
W5.09676233Jul 29vs L6.09875111
L6.09875111Jul 22@ L3.28964333
L3.28964333Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L4.29918134
L4.29918134Aug 12vs W7.0104101200
W7.0104101200Aug 6@ L4.07156155
L4.07156155Jul 28@ W5.090211255
W5.090211255Jul 21vs L7.010134233
L7.010134233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Luis Castillo
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM4.013.50poor5.09.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W4.09559166
W4.09559166home starts6.72.25elite5.73.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W7.0104101200
W7.0104101200Jul 21vs L7.010134233
L7.010134233Jul 3vs L6.010145122
L6.010145122Trends · NYM
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 3-2 in Christian Scott's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 3.6 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.8 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 3-2 to the over in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 3-0 to the over in Christian Scott's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-2 in Luis Castillo's last 4 starts.
- CHW are 2-0 in Luis Castillo's last 2 home starts.
- CHW average 6.8 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 4 starts.
- CHW average 5.5 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 1-1 to the over in Luis Castillo's last 2 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph NW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- CHW offense: Whiff% 29.7 (last 6) is well above what K% 21.7 shows — strikeout rate may be undervalued, more Ks could be due
- CHW — Luis Castillo: 2026-08-06: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHW — Luis Castillo: high-K outing 2026-08-12 (10 Ks vs avg 5.3) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- CHW — Luis Castillo: low-K outing 2026-08-17 (1 Ks vs avg 5.3) — stuff was flat that day
NYM ML (+100)
New York's lineup sits at 128 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, matching its 130 over the last 12, and it just tagged Luis Castillo for 6 ER in 4 IP a week ago. Christian Scott's 3.85 xERA over his last 3 is masked by a 5.87 ERA inflated against high-strikeout lineups, while Chicago's offense has cooled to 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 from 107 over its last 12. Getting the superior offense and the underrated starter at even money underprices the Mets.
Christian Scott o6.5 Ks (+122)
Scott has a 27.8% K rate with a matching 29.8% whiff over his last 3, striking out 7, 6, and 7 in those outings. The White Sox whiff at 29.2% vs RHP over their last 6 against just a 21.1% K rate, a gap that points to more strikeouts than their surface number shows, and his 15.5 outs line gives him the length. Plus money on that pairing is priced too cheaply.
SFG @ BOS✓7:15 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
SFG @ BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Blade Tidwell R
xERA3.74 (good)ERA5.40 (poor)K%15.9 (below)Whiff%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%45.6 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs86BB%11.1 (below)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+167 (elite)K%17.2 (above)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%33.6 (below)
L12
wRC+130 (elite)K%17.1 (above)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%32.4 (below)
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA4.61 (below)ERA6.60 (poor)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%8.2 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs87BB%13.5 (poor)
SFG vs LHP
L6
wRC+52 (poor)K%34.6 (poor)Whiff%30.4 (poor)HH%34.0 (below)
L12
wRC+43 (poor)K%28.5 (poor)Whiff%28.9 (poor)HH%40.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.73 (good)ERA 4.27 (avg)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 3.07 (good)ERA 3.18 (good)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+189+1.5 (-120)O8.0 (-108)BOS-204-1.5 (+105)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+160+0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-108)BOS-200-0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG3.5 (+118/-145)1.5 (-105/-125)BOS4.5 (-106/-110)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBlade Tidwell3.5 (-120 / -106)14.5 (-151 / +114)Patrick Sandoval5.5 (-110 / -108)16.5 (-110 / -120)
Blade Tidwell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs 
L4.16313566
L4.16313566Aug 10vs L5.29664111
L5.29664111Aug 4@ L5.010036122
L5.010036122Apr 28@ L2.0*4724122
L2.0*4724122Apr 23vs L2.0*2521100
L2.0*2521100Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ L4.08969377
L4.08969377Aug 11@ L6.08448324
L6.08448324Aug 4vs W5.08956422
W5.08956422Jul 29@ W5.09275222
W5.09275222Jul 24vs W4.28435200
W4.28435200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Patrick Sandoval
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG—
home starts4.73.80avg4.36.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs W5.08956422
W5.08956422Jul 24vs W4.28435200
W4.28435200Jul 18vs W5.07659145
W5.07659145Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 0-3 in Blade Tidwell's last 3 starts.
- SFG are 0-1 in Blade Tidwell's last 1 away starts.
- SFG average 4.7 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 3 starts.
- SFG average 4.0 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 3-0 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 3 starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 3-2 in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 3 home starts.
- BOS average 6.0 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 9.0 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 4-1 to the over in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-1 to the over in Patrick Sandoval's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
71°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph ENE
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: Whiff% 24.1 (last 3 starts) is well above what K% 15.9 shows — his strikeout rate looks undervalued, more Ks may be due
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-28, 2026-04-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: last start: 63 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: 2026-08-16: 6 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: recent opponents high-K: TEX 35%, HOU 27%, COL 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: 2026-08-16: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: recent opponents high-K: CHW 25%, PIT 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
BOS Team Total o4.5 (-111)
Boston is scorching at a 167 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, backed by a 130 wRC+ over their last 12, so this is established form rather than a one-series spike. Tidwell has been squared up hard with a 45.6 HH% over his last 3 starts and a 5.40 ERA, and he threw only 63 pitches last time. An elite home offense against a hittable righty should push past this team total.
BOS -1.5 (+105)
Boston's bats are mashing right-handed pitching at a 167 wRC+ over their last 6 and 130 over their last 12 — both windows elite and in agreement — while San Francisco is stuck at a 52 wRC+ vs lefties over their last 6 with a 34.6 K% and 43 wRC+ over their last 12. Blade Tidwell carries a 5.40 ERA over his last 3 and is giving up a 45.6 HH% over that stretch, and Boston has averaged 9.0 runs per home game behind their starter. San Francisco simply cannot generate offense here, and getting the run line at plus money on the far superior lineup facing a hittable arm is more value than the -204 moneyline offers.
CHC @ SEA✓7:15 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
CHC @ SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
David Peterson L
xERA3.88 (avg)ERA3.18 (good)K%18.5 (avg)Whiff%22.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%29.7 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs67BB%13.0 (below)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+79 (poor)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+77 (poor)K%26.0 (below)Whiff%24.8 (avg)HH%41.4 (above)
Kade Anderson L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHC vs LHP
L6
wRC+195 (elite)K%16.1 (above)Whiff%9.2 (elite)HH%41.7 (above)
L12
wRC+123 (above)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%16.7 (elite)HH%40.8 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.58 (below)ERA 3.20 (good)
SEA
xERA 4.22 (avg)ERA 7.59 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+104-1.5 (+170)O7.5 (-105)SEA-112+1.5 (-196)U7.5 (-113)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC+110+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (+112)SEA-132-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-120/-110)SEA3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavid Peterson4.5 (+115 / -132)15.5 (+115 / +137)Kade Anderson——
David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W1.1*2210100
W1.1*2210100Aug 12@ W5.09069334
W5.09069334Aug 6vs W5.08937311
W5.08937311Aug 1vs W6.19785012
W6.19785012Jul 27@ W5.28633222
W5.28633222Trends · CHC
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 5-0 in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-1 in David Peterson's last 4 away starts.
- CHC average 7.6 runs/game in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 7.2 runs/game in David Peterson's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 4-1 to the over in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-1 to the over in David Peterson's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
73°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 5
- SEA — Kade Anderson: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SEA bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-17 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — David Peterson: recent opponents high-K: NYY 27%, WSN 36% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 92) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
David Peterson o4.5 Ks (+105)
Peterson has struck out 8, 3, and 6 over his last 3 starts (5.7 K/start) working 5.7 IP/gs. Seattle carries a 24.8 K% vs LHP over their last 6 with a 79 wRC+, a strikeout-prone lineup that lets him work deep. Plus money on a starter averaging well above this number against a whiffing offense is the edge.
DET @ KCR7:15 PM · Kauffman StadiumNeutral Conditions
DET @ KCRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Drew Anderson R
xERA4.01 (avg)ERA2.84 (elite)K%17.6 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.7 (elite)Barrel%10.8 (avg)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs62BB%9.8 (avg)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+138 (elite)K%16.4 (above)Whiff%16.7 (elite)HH%38.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%19.3 (above)Whiff%17.9 (elite)HH%36.8 (avg)
Michael Wacha R
xERA3.65 (good)ERA4.15 (avg)K%13.0 (below)Whiff%17.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%12.3 (below)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs90BB%4.3 (elite)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+116 (above)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%18.1 (above)HH%38.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+99 (avg)K%17.3 (above)Whiff%19.7 (above)HH%33.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 3.60 (good)
KCR
xERA 4.62 (below)ERA 4.46 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-104-1.5 (+150)O8.5 (-105)KCR-104+1.5 (-176)U8.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-108+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (+102)KCR-115-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-132)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET4.5 (+114/-135)1.5 (-145/+114)KCR3.5 (-132/+110)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDrew Anderson4.5 (+134 / -160)14.5 (-162 / +134)Michael Wacha4.5 (+118 / -139)17.5 (-160 / +145)
Drew Anderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L5.07454233
L5.07454233Aug 11vs W4.07044211
W4.07044211Aug 5@ L3.24203100
L3.24203100Aug 2@ W1.1*2221000
W1.1*2221000Jul 29vs L1.1*3021122
L1.1*3021122Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W5.07936044
W5.07936044Aug 11@ L6.29657033
L6.29657033Aug 6vs L5.29413311
L5.29413311Jul 31@ L6.09975013
L6.09975013Jul 25@ W7.09636222
W7.09636222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Wacha
IPERAKHBB
vs DET6.12.97elite4.34.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ W7.09636222
W7.09636222May 9vs W7.08962200
W7.08962200Aug 31vs L4.27145144
L4.27145144home starts5.43.33good3.04.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W5.07936044
W5.07936044Aug 6vs L5.29413311
L5.29413311Jul 20vs W6.09653211
W6.09653211Trends · DET
- DET are 6-5 vs KCR this season (11 games).
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 in Drew Anderson's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-1 in Drew Anderson's last 2 away starts.
- DET average 4.8 runs/game in Drew Anderson's last 5 starts.
- DET average 5.5 runs/game in Drew Anderson's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 1-1 to the over in Drew Anderson's last 2 starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 5-6 vs DET this season (11 games).
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR have won 6 straight.
- KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 4.0 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 3.8 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-1 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- KCR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET — Drew Anderson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-02, 2026-07-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
- DET — Drew Anderson: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- KCR — Michael Wacha: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- KCR — Michael Wacha: 2026-08-17: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
Kansas City's red-hot 138 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 argues for the Royals, but Wacha's 2.97 ERA across 3 starts vs Detroit offsets it and the moneyline is a coin flip.
PIT @ LAD✓7:15 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
PIT @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jared Jones R
xERA5.80 (poor)ERA9.00 (poor)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%31.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs79BB%9.8 (avg)
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+109 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+108 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Tarik Skubal L
xERA2.97 (elite)ERA3.18 (good)K%26.4 (good)Whiff%28.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs96BB%8.3 (avg)
PIT vs LHP
L6
wRC+88 (below)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%49.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%27.6 (below)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%48.0 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 2.99 (elite)ERA 3.49 (good)
LAD
xERA 2.51 (elite)ERA 3.77 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+238+1.5 (+101)O7.5 (-110)LAD-250-1.5 (-114)U7.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+220+1.5 (-146)O4.5 (+116)LAD-270-1.5 (+112)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT2.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (+130/-166)LAD4.5 (-111/-105)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJared Jones4.5 (-150 / +122)15.5 (+124 / +118)Tarik Skubal8.5 (+110 / -132)18.5 (+123 / -154)
Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L5.08574211
L5.08574211Aug 9vs L3.06936388
L3.06936388Aug 4@ L4.08348133
L4.08348133Jul 29vs 
L6.07754233
L6.07754233Jul 24vs L6.08352111
L6.08352111Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L6.010977212
L6.010977212Aug 10vs W5.09564233
W5.09564233Aug 4@ L6.08564222
L6.08564222Jul 29vs L6.29264133
L6.29264133Jul 24vs W7.191124211
W7.191124211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jared Jones
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.04.50below4.03.01.0(1)
at LAD—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 10vs W4.07543122
W4.07543122Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.23.46good6.06.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19vs W5.210366322
W5.210366322home starts5.73.66good6.35.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L6.010977212
L6.010977212Aug 10vs W5.09564233
W5.09564233Jul 29vs L6.29264133
L6.29264133Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-3 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 0-5 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Jared Jones's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 1.0 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 4.6 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 1-4 to the over in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 3-1 vs PIT this season (4 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD have won 4 straight.
- LAD are 1-2 in Tarik Skubal's last 3 starts.
- LAD are 1-1 in Tarik Skubal's last 2 home starts.
- LAD average 3.0 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 3 starts.
- LAD average 4.0 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 2-1 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 3 starts.
- LAD are 2-0 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WSW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- PIT — Jared Jones: Whiff% 31.4 (last 3 starts) is well above what K% 22.9 shows — his strikeout rate looks undervalued, more Ks may be due
- PIT — Jared Jones: 2026-08-09: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: last start: 109 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents low-K: CHC 16%, KCR 9% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
LAD -1.5 (-111)
Skubal brings a 2.97 xERA and 26.4 K% over his last 3 starts against a Pittsburgh lineup that has cooled to an 88 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and scored just 1.0 run per game across his club's last five starts. The Dodgers' 109 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 gets Jones, whose 5.80 xERA over his last 3 flags a hittable arm. At -250 on the moneyline the runline captures the same lopsided matchup at a fair price.
CIN @ ARI8:10 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
CIN @ ARIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Rhett Lowder R
xERA4.08 (avg)ERA4.00 (avg)K%15.8 (below)Whiff%14.3 (below)
More Stats
HH%32.2 (good)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs96BB%6.6 (good)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+96 (avg)K%19.3 (above)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%50.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%17.6 (above)Whiff%18.4 (above)HH%38.7 (avg)
Michael Soroka R
xERA4.61 (below)ERA1.64 (elite)K%19.6 (avg)Whiff%19.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%24.2 (elite)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs55BB%8.7 (avg)
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+41 (poor)K%29.5 (poor)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%41.9 (above)
L12
wRC+52 (poor)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%26.7 (below)HH%41.6 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 4.91 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 4.40 (avg)ERA 3.32 (good)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+163+1.5 (-137)O8.0 (-108)ARI-174-1.5 (+125)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+142+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-114)ARI-175-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (+106/-130)1.5 (-120/-110)ARI4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URhett Lowder3.5 (+103 / -115)15.5 (+106 / -120)Michael Soroka5.5 (-150 / +124)16.5 (-108 / +104)
Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs W6.29958244
W6.29958244Aug 12@ L5.19447122
L5.19447122Aug 5vs W6.09534222
W6.09534222Jul 30vs W6.09055022
W6.09055022Jul 24@ W5.07641222
W5.07641222Michael Soroka · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ L5.28056122
L5.28056122Aug 10vs W4.17743300
W4.17743300Jun 19vs W1.0902000
W1.0902000Jun 13@ L7.09372011
L7.09372011Jun 7vs W7.010063211
W7.010063211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Rhett Lowder
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.21.73elite6.05.02.0(1)
at ARI—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 13vs W5.29665211
W5.29665211Michael Soroka
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.52.00elite5.01.50.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 13@ L7.09372011
L7.09372011Aug 4vs L2.03131111
L2.03131111home starts4.00.74elite3.32.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs W4.17743300
W4.17743300Jun 19vs W1.0902000
W1.0902000Jun 7vs W7.010063211
W7.010063211Trends · CIN
- CIN are 1-3 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 4-1 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 3.2 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 1.8 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 1-4 to the over in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 0-3 to the over in Rhett Lowder's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 3-1 vs CIN this season (4 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 3-2 in Michael Soroka's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in Michael Soroka's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 5.4 runs/game in Michael Soroka's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 6.0 runs/game in Michael Soroka's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 1-1 to the over in Michael Soroka's last 2 starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- ARI — Michael Soroka: avg 3.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- ARI — Michael Soroka: recent opponents high-K: COL 25%, ATL 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: CIN — was shut out 9-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
AI Analysis
Soroka's shiny 1.64 ERA over unearned results sits against a Cincinnati offense that is dreadful at a 41 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, and his short 3.7 IP/gs outings against that cold lineup leave no clean edge at these prices.
CLE @ COL✓8:10 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
CLE @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tanner Bibee R
xERA3.22 (good)ERA5.50 (poor)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs97BB%6.6 (good)
COL vs RHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%34.2 (below)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Gabriel Hughes R
xERA5.08 (below)ERA12.83 (poor)K%18.5 (avg)Whiff%22.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs82BB%9.2 (avg)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+85 (below)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%35.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%16.9 (elite)HH%34.4 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 3.07 (good)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 5.51 (poor)ERA 3.97 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-136-1.5 (+105)O11.0 (-103)COL+127+1.5 (-125)U11.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-130-0.5 (-104)O5.5 (-140)COL+108+0.5 (-125)U5.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE5.5 (-120/+100)2.5 (-135/+105)COL4.5 (-118/-105)2.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTanner Bibee4.5 (-105 / -113)17.5 (-145 / +132)Gabriel Hughes3.5 (+146 / -170)14.5 (-158 / +119)
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L6.09637333
L6.09637333Aug 11@ L6.19645256
L6.19645256Aug 5vs L5.298104034
L5.298104034Jul 31vs L7.110033122
L7.110033122Jul 25@ L6.010759233
L6.010759233Gabriel Hughes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ W4.08128177
W4.08128177Aug 10@ L4.08835377
L4.08835377Aug 4vs L5.17774255
L5.17774255Jul 29@ L5.07626133
L5.07626133Jul 22vs L5.08855111
L5.08855111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gabriel Hughes
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE—
home starts5.14.74below6.04.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs L5.17774255
L5.17774255Jul 22vs L5.08855111
L5.08855111Jul 17vs L5.18265222
L5.18265222Trends · CLE
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 0-5 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 2.0 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.0 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 3-2 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 3 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- COL have lost 4 straight.
- COL are 1-4 in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL are 0-3 in Gabriel Hughes's last 3 home starts.
- COL average 4.2 runs/game in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.0 runs/game in Gabriel Hughes's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 3-2 to the over in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Gabriel Hughes's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph NE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- COL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.51 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: high-K outing 2026-08-05 (10 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: recent opponents low-K: DET 17%, SDP 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
Tanner Bibee o4.5 Ks (-105)
Colorado is striking out at a 25.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6, a lineup that gives Bibee a soft spot as he works a 22.4 K% and 24.0 Whiff% over his last 3 while going a full 6.0 IP/gs. His recent K totals of 4 and 3 came against DET (17%) and SDP (18%), unusually low-strikeout lineups, so those numbers understate what he does against a whiff-prone Colorado club. With the length to reach it and a higher-strikeout opponent than his line reflects, the 4.5 is set too low at -105.
MIN @ SDP✓8:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
MIN @ SDP✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Dean Kremer R
xERA2.59 (elite)ERA3.12 (good)K%23.4 (good)Whiff%28.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.8 (good)Barrel%4.5 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs89BB%7.8 (avg)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%17.6 (above)Whiff%26.0 (below)HH%36.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%17.1 (above)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%41.5 (above)
Casey Mize R
xERA4.25 (avg)ERA5.87 (poor)K%14.9 (below)Whiff%12.0 (below)
More Stats
HH%41.2 (below)Barrel%13.7 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs82BB%9.0 (avg)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+82 (below)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)HH%44.3 (above)
L12
wRC+88 (below)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%40.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 2.78 (elite)ERA 3.14 (good)
SDP
xERA 1.92 (elite)ERA 2.18 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+126+1.5 (-174)O8.5 (+100)SDP-134-1.5 (+146)U8.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+120+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-118)SDP-145-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN3.5 (-128/+100)1.5 (-140/+110)SDP4.5 (+112/-130)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDean Kremer4.5 (+107 / -120)16.5 (-101 / -122)Casey Mize4.5 (-112 / -102)17.5 (-106 / -105)
Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L5.18965244
L5.18965244Aug 10vs W7.08971111
W7.08971111Aug 5@ L5.08823211
L5.08823211Jul 28@ L4.08148388
L4.08148388Jul 22@ L6.08758166
L6.08758166Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ W6.08633100
W6.08633100Aug 10vs W6.08365222
W6.08365222Aug 5@ L3.17719388
L3.17719388Jul 25vs L6.08533011
L6.08533011Jul 19@ L3.17455111
L3.17455111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.46.67poor6.05.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 6@ L4.19047355
L4.19047355Aug 16@ W6.189104144
W6.189104144Aug 4vs W6.06744033
W6.06744033home starts5.73.14good4.74.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs W6.08365222
W6.08365222Jul 25vs L6.08533011
L6.08533011Jul 11vs L5.29755234
L5.29755234Trends · MIN
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 1-2 in Dean Kremer's last 3 starts.
- MIN are 0-1 in Dean Kremer's last 1 away starts.
- MIN average 5.0 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 3 starts.
- MIN average 1.0 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-2 to the over in Dean Kremer's last 4 starts.
- MIN are 0-2 to the over in Dean Kremer's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 2-1 in Casey Mize's last 3 starts.
- SDP are 1-0 in Casey Mize's last 1 home starts.
- SDP average 4.0 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 3 starts.
- SDP average 3.0 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-3 to the over in Casey Mize's last 4 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- SDP offense: Whiff% 26.0 (last 6) is well above what K% 17.6 shows — strikeout rate may be undervalued, more Ks could be due
- MIN — Dean Kremer: 2026-08-16: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIN — Dean Kremer: low-K outing 2026-08-05 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- MIN — Dean Kremer: recent opponents low-K: KCR 16%, PHI 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- SDP — Casey Mize: 2026-08-05: 8 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 23) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Dean Kremer o4.5 Ks (+102)
Kremer's 2.59 xERA over his last 3 starts comes with a 28.4 Whiff% and 5.8 IP/gs. San Diego's 26.0 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6 sits well above their 17.6 K%, meaning their strikeout rate is due to rise against a starter who misses bats at this rate. Plus money on a whiff-heavy arm working near six innings against a swing-and-miss lineup is undervalued.