AI Picks · 2 Bets · Sep 29
2u Picks
1u Picks
CHW @ HOU o8.5 (+100)
CHW @ HOU · 5:00 PM ET
Both lineups are running hot right now — CHW 138 wRC+ and HOU 166 wRC+ over their last 6 games (all hands, given both bullpen games) — and both hard-hit rates sit well above average at 44.8% and 41.5%. Neither club has a real starter tonight, and both pens carry real fatigue: HOU's is stressed at 7.0 relief innings over the past two days and CHW's is elevated at 4.0, meaning a parade of relievers facing two offenses that have been mashing. A total of 8.5 sits right at the league mean of 8.9 despite two elite recent offenses colliding with two taxed bullpens on a 90-degree day, which undersells the scoring environment.
Found at 4:02 AM ET
BOS @ NYY F5 u3.5 (-146)
BOS @ NYY · 8:10 PM ET
Payton Tolle has dominated NYY in both starts against them this season (6.0 IP/1 ER and 7.0 IP/0 ER, 9.0 K/gs), and Cam Schlittler has been just as tough on BOS across three starts this season (1 ER, 0 ER, 0 ER). Both offenses are cold against today's hand over the last 6 games — BOS 68 wRC+ vs RHP, consistent with a 56 wRC+ over its last 12, and NYY 55 wRC+ vs LHP. Taking the first five avoids BOS's own bullpen, which is stressed at 6.0 relief innings over the last two days and would otherwise expose a full-game under to a shaky pen behind two dominant, matchup-proven starters; the -146 price still pays given how consistently these two arms have handled these specific lineups.
Found at 4:02 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
PHI @ 
ATL2:00 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
PHI @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jesús Luzardo L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
ATL vs LHP
L6
wRC+72 (poor)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%23.7 (avg)BB%2.9 (poor)HH%41.8 (above)
L12
wRC+79 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%26.0 (below)BB%6.0 (poor)HH%35.0 (avg)
Chris Sale L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
PHI vs LHP
L6
wRC+42 (poor)K%17.1 (above)Whiff%24.8 (avg)BB%5.7 (poor)HH%45.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%18.8 (above)Whiff%20.1 (above)BB%9.1 (avg)HH%40.2 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.77 (avg)ERA 5.71 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 4.31 (avg)ERA 3.78 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI+168+1.5 (-135)O6.5 (-120)ATL-195-1.5 (+125)U6.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI+172+0.5 (+102)O3.5 (-115)ATL-220-0.5 (-132)U3.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI2.5 (-115/-106)1.5 (+145/-188)ATL3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJesús Luzardo2.5 (-168 / +131)—Chris Sale7.5 (+105 / -127)17.5 (-167 / +125)
Jesús Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs 
W1.0*400000
W1.0*400000Sep 7 '26vs W9.0109122100
W9.0109122100Sep 1 '26@ 
W6.29966111
W6.29966111Aug 26 '26@ 
W7.010491300
W7.010491300Aug 21 '26vs 
W5.211095124
W5.211095124Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26vs 
W5.297104011
W5.297104011Sep 11 '26vs W7.09463233
W7.09463233Sep 4 '26@ W6.010376122
W6.010376122Aug 27 '26vs 
W9.0109115000
W9.0109115000Aug 21 '26@ 
L6.09468022
L6.09468022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jesús Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.70.89elite8.73.71.7(3)
at ATL5.52.45elite6.56.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 7 '26vs W9.0109122100
W9.0109122100Aug 31 '25vs L6.210472100
L6.210472100Jun 28 '25@ L5.09777322
L5.09777322Apr 10 '25@ L6.09866111
L6.09866111Chris Sale
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI6.32.37elite7.33.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 11 '26vs W7.09463233
W7.09463233Sep 4 '26@ W6.010376122
W6.010376122Apr 26 '26vs W6.010091200
W6.010091200home starts7.11.70elite9.04.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26vs W5.297104011
W5.297104011Sep 11 '26vs W7.09463233
W7.09463233Aug 27 '26vs W9.0109115000
W9.0109115000Trends · PHI
- PHI are 4-9 vs ATL this season (13 games).
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 5-0 in Jesús Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 4-1 in Jesús Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 6.0 runs/game in Jesús Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 5.8 runs/game in Jesús Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in Jesús Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-1 to the over in Jesús Luzardo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 9-4 vs PHI this season (13 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-1 to the over in Chris Sale's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 1 mph NE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- PHI — Jesús Luzardo: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATL — Chris Sale: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATL bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- PHI — Jesús Luzardo: 22 days since last start (2026-09-07) news ↗
- PHI — Jesús Luzardo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-27
- PHI — Jesús Luzardo: last start: 109 pitches over 9.0 IP news ↗
- ATL — Chris Sale: recent opponents low-K: PHI 17%, PHI 17%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
AI Analysis
Both Jesús Luzardo and Chris Sale are working with zero current-season rate stats, so the game total and side both rest on cold recent offensive numbers (42 wRC+ for PHI and 72 for ATL vs today's hand) that conflict with each club's much stronger overall recent scoring trends, leaving no confident read on the total or the price on either side. Luzardo's K prop at 2.5 and Sale's K/outs props at 7.5/17.5 are built entirely off head-to-head meetings that are mostly from last season or nearly a month old, with no current form behind either arm to confirm them.
CHW @ 
HOU✓5:00 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
CHW @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Schweitzer BP
xERA4.49 (avg)ERA1.59 (elite)K%9.5 (poor)Whiff%12.5 (below)BB%4.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs23
HOU all hands
L6
wRC+166 (elite)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%26.4 (below)BB%11.0 (elite)HH%41.5 (above)
L12
wRC+138 (elite)K%23.6 (avg)Whiff%25.9 (below)BB%8.4 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)
Unknown player (681973) BP
xERA1.99 (elite)ERA3.38 (good)K%33.3 (elite)Whiff%40.0 (elite)BB%0.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%66.7 (poor)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs2.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs18
CHW all hands
L6
wRC+138 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%25.7 (below)BB%7.6 (below)HH%44.8 (above)
L12
wRC+118 (above)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%25.8 (below)BB%9.5 (above)HH%44.1 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 4.77 (below)ERA 4.30 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 3.66 (good)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+108+1.5 (-188)O8.5 (+100)HOU-122-1.5 (+159)U8.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+100+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-102)HOU-124-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-132/+110)1.5 (-154/+120)HOU4.5 (+120/+114)2.5 (+120/-154)
Tyler Schweitzer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 11 '26@ L2.0*2613011
L2.0*2613011Sep 8 '26vs 
L2.2*3303000
L2.2*3303000Sep 5 '26vs 
L1.0*1010100
L1.0*1010100Sep 3 '26@ L2.0*2201100
L2.0*2201100Aug 24 '26vs 
L2.0*3623022
L2.0*3623022Unknown player (681973) · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
L0.2*400000
L0.2*400000Sep 23 '26@ L2.0*3132011
L2.0*3132011Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-5 vs HOU this season (7 games).
- CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 5-2 vs CHW this season (7 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- HOU are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 8
- BULLPEN GAME: CHW have no conventional starter — Hagen Smith (LHP) is listed first (last 5 outings avg 1.2 IP (longest 2.0)). Expect a parade of relievers; HOU's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
- BULLPEN GAME: HOU have no conventional starter — AJ Blubaugh (RHP) is listed first (last 5 outings avg 1.0 IP (longest 2.0)). Expect a parade of relievers; CHW's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
- CHW — Tyler Schweitzer: small sample: 5.2 IP over 3 starts
- HOU — Unknown player (681973): small sample: 2.2 IP over 3 starts
- CHW bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- HOU bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
- CHW — Tyler Schweitzer: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-11, 2026-09-08
- HOU — Unknown player (681973): recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-25, 2026-09-23
CHW @ HOU o8.5 (+100)
Both lineups are running hot right now — CHW 138 wRC+ and HOU 166 wRC+ over their last 6 games (all hands, given both bullpen games) — and both hard-hit rates sit well above average at 44.8% and 41.5%. Neither club has a real starter tonight, and both pens carry real fatigue: HOU's is stressed at 7.0 relief innings over the past two days and CHW's is elevated at 4.0, meaning a parade of relievers facing two offenses that have been mashing. A total of 8.5 sits right at the league mean of 8.9 despite two elite recent offenses colliding with two taxed bullpens on a 90-degree day, which undersells the scoring environment.
BOS @ 
NYY✓8:00 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
BOS @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Payton Tolle L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
NYY vs LHP
L6
wRC+55 (poor)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%29.6 (poor)BB%5.5 (poor)HH%42.1 (above)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%22.0 (avg)Whiff%24.4 (avg)BB%9.2 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
Cam Schlittler R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+68 (poor)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%22.0 (avg)BB%12.2 (elite)HH%27.1 (poor)
L12
wRC+56 (poor)K%28.8 (poor)Whiff%24.9 (avg)BB%7.6 (below)HH%26.0 (poor)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.51 (elite)ERA 1.61 (elite)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 3.30 (good)2d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+120+1.5 (-190)O6.5 (+100)NYY-142-1.5 (+164)U6.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS+128+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (+112)NYY-158-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS2.5 (-130/+108)1.5 (+130/-166)NYY3.5 (+112/-140)1.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPayton Tolle6.5 (-148 / +120)17.5 (-107 / -124)Cam Schlittler7.5 (+114 / -135)17.5 (-124 / +100)
Payton Tolle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '26vs 
L5.29158222
L5.29158222Sep 13 '26vs 
W6.09674100
W6.09674100Sep 6 '26@ 
W6.091124011
W6.091124011Aug 31 '26vs W5.29666244
W5.29666244Aug 25 '26@ 
W5.19774222
W5.19774222Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24 '26vs W3.07053212
W3.07053212Sep 19 '26@ L6.09863313
L6.09863313Sep 13 '26vs 
W6.09481200
W6.09481200Sep 8 '26vs 
W7.096103011
W7.096103011Sep 2 '26@ 
W8.09992011
W8.09992011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Payton Tolle
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.50.69elite9.02.01.5(2)
at NYY—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26 '26vs W7.08871200
W7.08871200Apr 23 '26vs L6.093113111
L6.093113111Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.10.58elite7.33.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs W5.210282500
W5.210282500Jun 25 '26@ L5.09295204
L5.09295204Jun 7 '26vs W5.29254111
W5.29254111home starts5.31.12elite7.72.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24 '26vs W3.07053212
W3.07053212Sep 13 '26vs W6.09481200
W6.09481200Sep 8 '26vs W7.096103011
W7.096103011Trends · BOS
- BOS are 6-8 vs NYY this season (14 games).
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 5-0 in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.8 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 1-1 to the over in Payton Tolle's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 8-6 vs BOS this season (14 games).
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 4-1 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 5-0 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 4.4 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.4 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 4-1 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-1 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
64°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph NNE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- BOS — Payton Tolle: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- BOS bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- NYY bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g)
- BOS — Payton Tolle: recent opponents low-K: KCR 17%, CLE 18%
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: last start: 70 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- TREND: NYY — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-09-27)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
BOS @ NYY F5 u3.5 (-146)
Payton Tolle has dominated NYY in both starts against them this season (6.0 IP/1 ER and 7.0 IP/0 ER, 9.0 K/gs), and Cam Schlittler has been just as tough on BOS across three starts this season (1 ER, 0 ER, 0 ER). Both offenses are cold against today's hand over the last 6 games — BOS 68 wRC+ vs RHP, consistent with a 56 wRC+ over its last 12, and NYY 55 wRC+ vs LHP. Taking the first five avoids BOS's own bullpen, which is stressed at 6.0 relief innings over the last two days and would otherwise expose a full-game under to a shaky pen behind two dominant, matchup-proven starters; the -146 price still pays given how consistently these two arms have handled these specific lineups.
CHC @ 
SDP10:00 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
CHC @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Matthew Boyd L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
SDP vs LHP
L6
wRC+69 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (avg)BB%3.3 (poor)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+174 (elite)K%18.5 (above)Whiff%23.5 (avg)BB%3.1 (poor)HH%45.8 (elite)
Michael King R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+64 (poor)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%35.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%20.4 (above)BB%9.6 (above)HH%38.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 3.36 (good)ERA 3.91 (avg)2d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 5.08 (below)ERA 4.14 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+108+1.5 (-200)O7.5 (+102)SDP-125-1.5 (+176)U7.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-112-0.5 (+126)O3.5 (-144)SDP-112+0.5 (-168)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UCHC3.5 (+100/-122)SDP3.5 (-110/-111)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMatthew Boyd3.5 (-155 / +130)13.5 (-118 / -113)Michael King4.5 (-138 / +112)14.5 (-144 / +110)
Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24 '26vs W7.09035211
W7.09035211Sep 19 '26@ W5.07142212
W5.07142212Sep 13 '26vs L5.18837244
L5.18837244Sep 7 '26@ L7.010075233
L7.010075233Sep 1 '26vs L5.19737133
L5.19737133Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '26@ L4.08156255
L4.08156255Sep 17 '26@ W6.010467222
W6.010467222Sep 12 '26@ 
W7.09645033
W7.09645033Sep 6 '26vs W6.09634300
W6.09634300Aug 31 '26@ W6.09664300
W6.09664300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP4.76.38poor3.07.31.3(3)
at SDP4.56.92poor3.57.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30 '26vs W5.07628033
W5.07628033Apr 27 '26@ L4.09148255
L4.09148255Apr 16 '25@ L5.19736222
L5.19736222Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC—
home starts6.30.47elite5.34.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs W6.09634300
W6.09634300Aug 25 '26vs L7.09875200
L7.09875200Aug 8 '26vs W6.09363111
W6.09363111Trends · CHC
- CHC are 5-1 vs SDP this season (6 games).
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-3 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-3 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 3.4 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 4.6 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 1-4 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 0-3 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 1-5 vs CHC this season (6 games).
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 4-1 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 5.0 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 5.0 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 3-2 to the over in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-1 to the over in Michael King's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph SW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SDP — Michael King: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SDP bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.08 over its last 12
- CHC bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g)
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: 2026-09-13: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.54 ERA equivalent
- SDP — Michael King: 2026-09-22: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.43 ERA equivalent
- SDP — Michael King: recent opponents high-K: SFG 38%, COL 26%
AI Analysis
Matthew Boyd and Michael King are both working their first starts back with no current-season rate stats, so the total and side prices aren't being tested against any fresh pitcher form. Boyd has a rough history against SDP (6.38 ERA across three meetings) but that sample is small and partly from last season, and it's undercut by SDP's own offense being cold against lefties lately (69 wRC+ over its last 6); King has no head-to-head data against CHC at all. With neither arm carrying reliable current stats, both K and outs props (Boyd 3.5/13.5, King 4.5/14.5) are unbacked and the mixed offensive signals leave the game lines fairly priced.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.