AI Picks · 12 Bets · Aug 26
Tanner Gordon u3.5 Ks (+115)
Gordon has averaged 2.0 strikeouts per start over his last 3 on a 14.8 K% and 21.6 Whiff%, and he got just 2 in 5.1 innings his last time out. Those totals came against San Francisco lineups striking out at 28%, while Washington makes far more contact at an 18.6 K% vs RHP over their last 6, down from 21.0 over their last 12. His outs line of 16.5 caps him around five and a half innings, so he needs four strikeouts in an outing where he has been averaging two. The market has him priced for better than a strikeout every other inning against the wrong lineup for it.
Found at 4:13 AM ET
COL @ WSN u8.5 (+102)
Two of the weakest offenses on the board meet here: Colorado sits at a 64 wRC+ vs left-handers over its last 6 games and 61 over its last 12, while Washington is at a 74 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 and 75 over its last 12 — both numbers are established rather than streaky. Will Dion carries a 1.34 xERA over his last 3 outings and the Nationals bullpen behind him has a 2.83 xERA with a 26.1% strikeout rate over its last 12 games, so the innings after the opener are covered by the better relief corps. Colorado's own bullpen at a 5.19 xERA is the one leak in the game, and it is not enough to carry a number this high with neither lineup hitting.
Found at 6:45 PM ET
Elmer Rodriguez u14.5 Outs (-107)
Rodriguez has not started a game in 66 days and his last 3 outings produced 14, 13 and 12 outs on a 4.3 IP/gs, with an 11.1% walk rate that has him at 94, 64 and 80 pitches for those short lines. Houston brings a 101 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 games and a lineup led by Peña, Alvarez, Paredes and Altuve, and the Yankees bullpen has not worked in the past two days, so there is no reason to stretch him. Clearing 15 outs means a fifth inning he has completed once in three tries, and that was before a two-month layoff the market has not discounted.
Found at 6:45 PM ET
AJ Smith-Shawver u14.5 Outs (-111)
Smith-Shawver has recorded 13 outs in each of his last two starts, finishing at 69 and 75 pitches, and averages 4.3 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 12.5 BB% — the walks are what keep ending these outings early. He faces a Dodgers lineup at 117 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, up from 102 over their last 12, which grinds counts rather than gives away outs. The number asks him to complete five innings, something he has not done in either start since returning, and Atlanta's bullpen has not worked in the past two days and is fully available to take it from him.
Found at 4:13 AM ET
ATL Team Total u3.5 (+110)
Atlanta sits at a 58 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 58 over its last 12 — the same poor number in both windows, with a 27.6% strikeout rate over the last 6 — and it faces Sasaki's 3.92 xERA and 27.9% whiff rate over his last 3. Behind him is a Dodgers bullpen at 2.77 xERA with a 29.1% K rate over its last 12 and no relief innings in the past two days, so the late innings offer no relief either. Atlanta has scored 3.0 runs per game in this starter's last two outings, and a plus price on holding a bottom-of-the-league offense to three is more than this matchup warrants.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
TEX Team Total u3.5 (-102)
Texas is at 71 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 68 over their last 12 with a 25.0 K% on the last-6 window — an established weak offense, not a short slump — and Sean Burke has a 3.15 xERA, 4.2 BB% and 15.5 K-BB% over his last 3 starts, including 6 innings of one-run, six-strikeout ball against this same club. Texas has averaged 3.2 runs per game in MacKenzie Gore's last five starts and their totals have gone under in seven of their last ten. The market is asking four runs from a lineup that has not been producing them against a strike-throwing right-hander at home.
Found at 4:13 AM ET
MacKenzie Gore o6.5 Ks (+116)
Gore has 9, 5 and 7 strikeouts over his last 3 starts on a 29.2% K rate and a 36.9% whiff rate, and he has thrown 103, 99 and 100 pitches in those outings with an outs line of 17.5 giving him a full six innings of work. Chicago strikes out at 26.4% vs LHP over its last 6 and 26.4% over its last 12 — the same high number in both windows — with a 69 wRC+ vs LHP over the last 6. A left-hander missing bats at that rate against a lineup that whiffs 25.7% of the time should be favored to reach seven, not paid plus money for it.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Ks (-111)
Prielipp has struck out 7, 6 and 7 in his last three starts on a 27.8 K% and 29.8 Whiff% over that window, and Oakland is missing bats at a 33.3% clip vs LHP over their last 6 with a 35.8 Whiff% on the same window. His posted outs line of 16.5 gives him the innings — he has gone 5, 5 and 6 in those starts and cleared six strikeouts in each. The market is anchoring on his 9.56 ERA over those three starts rather than the bat-missing underneath it, and a lineup whiffing at better than a third of its swings is the softest strikeout matchup on the board.
Found at 4:13 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
ARI Team Total o4.5 (+110)
Arizona is at a 176 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 145 over its last 12 — elite in both windows — with a 41.8% hard-hit rate over the last 6, and Boyd brings a 6.07 xERA, 6.38 ERA, 10.1% K rate and 11.5% barrel rate over his last 3. He has allowed 2, 7 and 4 earned runs in those starts while missing almost no bats, and a Chase Field afternoon at 114 degrees does nothing to suppress the contact. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per home game behind this starter, and an even-money-plus price on five runs undervalues the league's hottest left-handed-pitching matchup against an arm this hittable.
Found at 10:38 AM ET
Landen Roupp u17.5 Outs (-130)
Roupp has recorded 16, 17 and 16 outs in his last three starts and has not finished a sixth inning in any of them, with a 16.0 BB% over that window driving his pitch count to 85, 91 and 90 without the innings to show for it. At home over his last three there he averages 4.5 IP/gs. Cincinnati is at 105 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and will take walks from a starter whose K-BB% is negative over his last 3. The line sits above every one of his recent outings, and paying this price buys a number he has not reached in a month.
Found at 4:13 AM ET
Ryan Gusto u14.5 Outs (-115)
Gusto has gone 4.0, 4.2 and 4.0 innings in his last three starts — 12, 14 and 12 outs — on pitch counts of 60, 70 and 62, and averages 4.2 IP/gs over that window. The line asks for five full innings against a Boston lineup at 144 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 136 over their last 12, striking out just 16.4% of the time over the last 6, which means long innings and deep counts rather than quick outs. Miami's bullpen has thrown only 2.0 innings over the past two days and is ready early, and the market is pricing this as a coin flip when he has not reached the number once in his last three trips out.
Found at 4:13 AM ET
Sonny Gray u5.5 Ks (-113)
Gray's 21.5 K% over his last 3 starts sits above an 18.4 Whiff% on the same window, so the strikeouts are coming from called strikes rather than swings and misses, and his 4, 7 and 6 in those starts came against Toronto, Pittsburgh (27% K) and San Francisco (28% K) — both of the big totals were built against lineups that strike out far more than tonight's. Miami puts the ball in play at a 20.8 K% and 21.1 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, and Gray needed 91 pitches to get 5 strikeouts through five innings against them in July. The number is set off strikeout totals that his opponents produced as much as he did.
Found at 4:13 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
TBR @ 
DET1:10 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
TBR @ DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Freddy Peralta R
xERA5.01 (below)ERA5.09 (below)K%18.6 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%12.0 (below)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs85BB%7.1 (avg)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+77 (poor)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%39.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%19.4 (above)Whiff%18.1 (above)HH%38.2 (avg)
Troy Melton R
xERA3.35 (good)ERA2.81 (elite)K%17.1 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%43.4 (below)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs88BB%7.1 (avg)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+54 (poor)K%19.0 (above)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%31.2 (below)
L12
wRC+97 (avg)K%16.2 (above)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%31.8 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.96 (avg)ERA 5.19 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.72 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+105-1.5 (+172)O7.5 (-105)DET-113-1.5 (+165)U7.5 (-113)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR+105+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+116)DET-128-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-130/+100)DET3.5 (-120/-106)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFreddy Peralta4.5 (+100 / -128)16.5 (+102 / -128)Troy Melton3.5 (-165 / +132)17.5 (-140 / +106)
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ W6.08142000
W6.08142000Aug 21@ 
L7.09867155
L7.09867155Aug 16vs L4.27621322
L4.27621322Aug 10@ 
W6.09856133
W6.09856133Aug 4@ 
W3.27139177
W3.27139177Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L7.08447033
L7.08447033Aug 21@ 
L5.29437333
L5.29437333Aug 15vs 
L4.18748113
L4.18748113Aug 9@ 
W6.09254101
W6.09254101Aug 4@ 
W7.09743200
W7.09743200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs DET6.01.50elite5.54.50.5(2)
at DET6.00.00elite4.02.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ W6.08142000
W6.08142000May 12vs W6.010077122
W6.010077122Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR7.53.00good4.55.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L7.08447033
L7.08447033Jun 3@ W8.09454222
W8.09454222home starts6.01.99elite4.36.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L7.08447033
L7.08447033Aug 15vs L4.18748113
L4.18748113Jul 28vs W7.09253200
W7.09253200Trends · TBR
- TBR are 2-4 vs DET this season (6 games).
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-2 in Freddy Peralta's last 4 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 3 away starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 4 starts.
- TBR average 7.3 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 3-0 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 3 starts.
- TBR are 2-0 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 2 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 4-2 vs TBR this season (6 games).
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 3-2 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 3-2 in Troy Melton's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 6.0 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 5.6 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 2-3 to the over in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-1 to the over in Troy Melton's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph SSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 1
- DET offense: K% 24.6 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 18.5 supports
CHC @ 
ARI✓3:40 PM · Chase Field (Retractable)
CHC @ ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Matthew Boyd L
xERA6.07 (poor)ERA6.38 (poor)K%10.1 (poor)Whiff%19.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.1 (good)Barrel%11.5 (below)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs92BB%10.1 (below)
ARI vs LHP
L6
wRC+176 (elite)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%18.8 (above)HH%41.8 (above)
L12
wRC+145 (elite)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%17.8 (elite)HH%38.8 (avg)
E. Rodriguez L
xERA2.68 (elite)ERA1.93 (elite)K%24.7 (good)Whiff%22.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%21.6 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs100BB%5.5 (good)
CHC vs LHP
L6
wRC+129 (above)K%15.0 (elite)Whiff%17.9 (elite)HH%48.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (above)HH%38.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.08 (avg)ERA 3.68 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 4.86 (below)ERA 4.37 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-101-1.5 (+156)O8.5 (-120)ARI-104+1.5 (-178)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-114-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-115)ARI-110+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC4.5 (+105/-130)2.5 (+130/-166)ARI4.5 (+110/+114)2.5 (+130/-166)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMatthew Boyd3.5 (-120 / +101)17.5 (-122 / -102)E. Rodriguez4.5 (+128 / -162)17.5 (-166 / +130)
Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ L6.09453211
L6.09453211Aug 21@ L6.08636245
L6.08636245Aug 15vs 
L5.19725377
L5.19725377Aug 9@ W7.09835322
W7.09835322Aug 3vs 
W6.29239145
W6.29239145E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs W7.010492300
W7.010492300Aug 21vs 
W5.29944200
W5.29944200Aug 15@ 
W6.09655022
W6.09655022Aug 9vs W7.011595222
W7.011595222Aug 4vs 
L5.2102411057
L5.2102411057SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.71.59elite5.03.72.0(3)
at ARI5.50.82elite5.03.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ L6.09453211
L6.09453211May 3vs W6.09454122
W6.09454122Mar 30@ L5.09254300
L5.09254300E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC6.02.23elite7.02.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs W7.010492300
W7.010492300Mar 30vs W5.18553333
W5.18553333home starts6.40.94elite7.33.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs W7.010492300
W7.010492300Aug 21vs W5.29944200
W5.29944200Aug 9vs W7.011595222
W7.011595222Trends · CHC
- CHC are 4-2 vs ARI this season (6 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-3 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 6.2 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.6 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-3 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-2 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-4 vs CHC this season (6 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 6.0 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.4 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 3-2 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 2-1 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Retractable
Flags · 4
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: Whiff% 19.2 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.1 shows
- CHC bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: 2026-08-15: 7 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 12); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.29 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 8 mph from the SSW (retractable roof — conditions apply only if open)
ARI Team Total o4.5 (+110)
Arizona is at a 176 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 145 over its last 12 — elite in both windows — with a 41.8% hard-hit rate over the last 6, and Boyd brings a 6.07 xERA, 6.38 ERA, 10.1% K rate and 11.5% barrel rate over his last 3. He has allowed 2, 7 and 4 earned runs in those starts while missing almost no bats, and a Chase Field afternoon at 114 degrees does nothing to suppress the contact. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per home game behind this starter, and an even-money-plus price on five runs undervalues the league's hottest left-handed-pitching matchup against an arm this hittable.
CIN @ SFG✓3:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
CIN @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Nick Lodolo L
xERA7.12 (poor)ERA7.30 (poor)K%15.2 (below)Whiff%27.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs86BB%6.8 (good)
SFG vs LHP
L6
wRC+57 (poor)K%26.5 (below)Whiff%25.6 (below)HH%45.5 (elite)
L12
wRC+67 (poor)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%25.6 (below)HH%42.1 (above)
Logan Webb R
xERA3.62 (good)ERA3.78 (avg)K%16.2 (below)Whiff%16.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs82BB%5.9 (good)
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%25.6 (below)HH%37.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+70 (poor)K%28.0 (poor)Whiff%26.8 (below)HH%41.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 4.21 (avg)ERA 4.46 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 2.52 (elite)2d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+650-1.5 (+410)O17.5 (+350)SFG-214+1.5 (-660)U17.5 (+145)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN-112-0.5 (+125)O4.5 (+114)SFG-112+0.5 (-164)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-130/+106)1.5 (-140/+110)SFG3.5 (-115/-105)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNick Lodolo4.5 (-125 / +104)15.5 (-130 / +104)Logan Webb——
Nick Lodolo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ L4.09556244
L4.09556244Aug 21@ L3.191210266
L3.191210266Aug 16vs 
L5.07323200
L5.07323200Aug 11@ W4.07055044
W4.07055044Jul 11vs L5.07845322
L5.07845322Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L6.09765122
L6.09765122Aug 21@ 
L2.27026355
L2.27026355Aug 15vs W6.08074011
W6.08074011Aug 9vs L8.010024111
L8.010024111Aug 3@ 
W6.09685100
W6.09685100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Lodolo
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.33.38good3.04.71.0(3)
at SFG5.03.60good4.04.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ L4.09556244
L4.09556244Apr 8@ W6.08733100
W6.08733100Mar 29vs W6.08615022
W6.08615022Logan Webb
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN6.02.50elite7.05.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L6.09765122
L6.09765122Apr 7vs L7.097104000
L7.097104000Mar 27@ W5.07856333
W5.07856333home starts6.71.80elite5.04.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L6.09765122
L6.09765122Aug 15vs W6.08074011
W6.08074011Aug 9vs L8.010024111
L8.010024111Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-3 vs SFG this season (5 games).
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 2.4 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.0 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-0 to the over in Nick Lodolo's last 3 starts.
- CIN are 2-0 to the over in Nick Lodolo's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-2 vs CIN this season (5 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 3-2 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 3-2 in Logan Webb's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 6.6 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 6.2 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 3-2 to the over in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 2-1 to the over in Logan Webb's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph WNW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- CIN — Nick Lodolo: Whiff% 27.3 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 15.2 shows
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- SFG bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g)
- CIN — Nick Lodolo: 2026-08-21: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
- CIN — Nick Lodolo: recent opponents high-K: CHW 26%, MIA 26%
- SFG — Logan Webb: last start: 70 pitches over 2.2 IP
- SFG — Logan Webb: 2026-08-21: 5 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 20); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.31 ERA equivalent
Landen Roupp u17.5 Outs (-130)
Roupp has recorded 16, 17 and 16 outs in his last three starts and has not finished a sixth inning in any of them, with a 16.0 BB% over that window driving his pitch count to 85, 91 and 90 without the innings to show for it. At home over his last three there he averages 4.5 IP/gs. Cincinnati is at 105 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and will take walks from a starter whose K-BB% is negative over his last 3. The line sits above every one of his recent outings, and paying this price buys a number he has not reached in a month.
CLE @ 
LAA4:07 PM · Angel StadiumHot
CLE @ LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Joey Cantillo L
xERA2.77 (elite)ERA2.31 (elite)K%31.2 (elite)Whiff%31.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%3.9 (elite)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs89BB%14.6 (poor)
LAA vs LHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%29.0 (poor)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+74 (poor)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%27.5 (below)HH%32.3 (below)
G. Rodriguez R
xERA2.25 (elite)ERA3.60 (good)K%29.7 (elite)Whiff%30.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%32.4 (good)Barrel%2.7 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs93BB%12.5 (below)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+122 (above)K%13.8 (elite)Whiff%15.0 (elite)HH%38.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+94 (below)K%16.8 (above)Whiff%16.0 (elite)HH%36.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.62 (elite)ERA 1.61 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.60 (elite)ERA 2.58 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-800-1.5 (+1800)O7.5 (+349)LAA+600+1.5 (-8000)U7.5 (-490)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-135-0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-120)LAA+114+0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE4.5 (-104/-120)2.5 (+110/-140)LAA3.5 (-106/-115)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJoey Cantillo6.5 (-113 / -104)15.5 (+116 / -144)G. Rodriguez4.5 (+130 / -151)16.5 (+106 / -121)
Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ W6.09212723
W6.09212723Aug 21@ W4.28954411
W4.28954411Aug 15vs W6.08771311
W6.08771311Aug 9@ L1.03133011
L1.03133011Aug 4vs 
L5.08157225
L5.08157225G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L5.29247111
L5.29247111Aug 20@ 
W7.09965202
W7.09965202Aug 14vs L4.08953233
L4.08953233Aug 9@ L4.08384434
L4.08384434Aug 4@ L7.09863122
L7.09863122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.01.50elite2.53.54.0(2)
at LAA6.03.00good1.02.07.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ W6.09212723
W6.09212723May 11vs W6.09345100
W6.09345100G. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.21.73elite4.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L5.29247111
L5.29247111home starts4.73.80avg5.05.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L5.29247111
L5.29247111Aug 14vs L4.08953233
L4.08953233Jul 29vs L5.09865222
L5.09865222Trends · CLE
- CLE are 5-0 vs LAA this season (5 games).
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have won 6 straight.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 5.2 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.2 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 0-5 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 0-3 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-5 vs CLE this season (5 games).
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-5 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 6.4 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 3.4 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 3-2 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-1 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
94°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: avg 3.9 IP/gs over his last 3
- LAA offense: Whiff% 29.0 (last 6) runs well above what K% 22.5 shows
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: 2026-08-09: 1 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.82 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: recent opponents high-K: CHW 26%, SDP 28%, COL 27%
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: recent opponents low-K: MIA 19%, KCR 16%
PHI @ SEA4:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
PHI @ SEAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA2.20 (elite)ERA3.26 (good)K%38.0 (elite)Whiff%33.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs108BB%5.1 (good)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%26.2 (below)Whiff%25.5 (below)HH%35.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%27.6 (below)Whiff%24.9 (avg)HH%39.8 (avg)
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.39 (good)ERA1.00 (elite)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%21.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs81BB%4.5 (elite)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+103 (avg)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%32.5 (below)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%32.4 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.68 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 4.80 (below)ERA 8.23 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI—-5.5 (-670)O6.5 (+462)SEA—+5.5 (+462)U6.5 (-670)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-135-0.5 (+110)O3.5 (-122)SEA+110+0.5 (-144)U3.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-130/+100)SEA2.5 (-145/+122)1.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJesus Luzardo7.5 (+104 / -123)18.5 (+140 / -176)Bryan Woo5.5 (+124 / -145)17.5 (-119 / -110)
Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ W7.010491300
W7.010491300Aug 21vs W5.211095124
W5.211095124Aug 15@ 
W6.210997211
W6.210997211Aug 9vs 
W7.0100124122
W7.0100124122Aug 4vs 
W8.09874200
W8.09874200Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L4.07655166
L4.07655166Aug 16@ W6.07553122
W6.07553122Aug 11@ 
L5.09253100
L5.09253100Aug 5vs W7.09153100
W7.09153100Jul 30@ L5.09185255
L5.09185255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA6.50.69elite10.52.01.5(2)
at SEA7.00.00elite9.01.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ W7.010491300
W7.010491300Aug 20vs W6.089123011
W6.089123011Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI4.013.50poor5.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L4.07655166
L4.07655166home starts5.74.24avg5.74.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L4.07655166
L4.07655166Aug 5vs W7.09153100
W7.09153100Jul 18vs W6.09876223
W6.09876223Trends · PHI
- PHI are 0-2 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 4-1 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 6.8 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 5.4 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-0 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 2-0 vs PHI this season (2 games).
- SEA are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 5-0 in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 2.2 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.8 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 1-4 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-1 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
66°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph SSW
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 6
- PHI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- SEA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- PHI — Jesus Luzardo: last start: 110 pitches over 5.2 IP
- SEA — Bryan Woo: last start: 75 pitches over 6.0 IP
- SEA — Bryan Woo: recent opponents high-K: NYY 26%, HOU 25%
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91)
PIT @ SDP4:10 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
PIT @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bubba Chandler R
xERA3.44 (good)ERA3.60 (good)K%26.7 (good)Whiff%19.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%47.4 (poor)Barrel%2.6 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs86BB%8.3 (avg)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+99 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%40.4 (above)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%18.7 (above)Whiff%25.5 (below)HH%42.0 (above)
Randy Vasquez R
xERA3.14 (good)ERA4.24 (avg)K%14.1 (below)Whiff%16.5 (below)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs8.5 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs82BB%1.6 (elite)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%29.1 (poor)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%32.9 (below)
L12
wRC+108 (avg)K%26.1 (below)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 3.22 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.13 (elite)ERA 1.94 (elite)2d stress Stressed (6.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+2500+3.5 (-260)O3.5 (+105)SDP-10000-3.5 (+240)U3.5 (-122)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-128)SDP-125-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-166/+130)SDP4.5 (+116/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBubba Chandler4.5 (+134 / -147)15.5 (+116 / -155)Randy Vasquez3.5 (-102 / -111)15.5 (+162 / -213)
Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ L5.28334212
L5.28334212Aug 21@ L4.08864244
L4.08864244Aug 14vs W5.08754222
W5.08754222Aug 8vs W6.08553100
W6.08553100Aug 3@ 
W5.29654423
W5.29654423Randy Vasquez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs W5.06821200
W5.06821200Aug 21vs W7.08732022
W7.08732022Aug 15@ L5.0*9057144
L5.0*9057144Aug 9vs W5.06212022
W5.06212022Aug 4@ W6.08012100
W6.08012100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP4.73.87avg3.54.53.0(2)
at SDP5.21.73elite3.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@ L5.28334212
L5.28334212Apr 6vs L4.18345433
L4.18345433Randy Vasquez
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT4.43.44good2.74.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs W5.06821200
W5.06821200Jun 1vs W3.17836344
W3.17836344May 3@ W5.08936511
W5.08936511home starts5.72.12elite2.01.70.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs W5.06821200
W5.06821200Aug 21vs W7.08732022
W7.08732022Aug 9vs W5.06212022
W5.06212022Trends · PIT
- PIT are 3-2 vs SDP this season (5 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 6.4 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.8 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-1 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 2-3 vs PIT this season (5 games).
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 4-1 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 7.2 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 3.8 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-1 to the over in Randy Vasquez's last 2 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
83°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SSW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- PIT offense: K% 29.1 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 23.9 supports
- PIT bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- SDP bullpen stressed (6.7 IP over 1g)
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: 2026-08-21: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15, 2026-07-30
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: recent opponents low-K: ARI 14%, MIN 15%
- TREND: SDP — lost the last game 1-0 (2026-08-25)
BOS @ MIA✓6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
BOS @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Sonny Gray R
xERA2.96 (elite)ERA2.84 (elite)K%21.5 (avg)Whiff%18.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%40.4 (below)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs94BB%5.1 (good)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+89 (below)K%18.8 (above)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%37.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%37.3 (avg)
Ryan Gusto R
xERA3.48 (good)ERA2.84 (elite)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs46BB%3.5 (elite)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+116 (above)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%18.9 (above)HH%31.1 (below)
L12
wRC+131 (elite)K%18.7 (above)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%31.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.39 (good)ERA 1.79 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 5.76 (poor)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-129-1.5 (+128)O7.5 (-110)MIA+120+1.5 (-150)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-132-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (+112)MIA+110+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+114/+116)1.5 (-154/+120)MIA3.5 (-102/-125)1.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USonny Gray5.5 (-111 / +101)17.5 (-192 / +153)Ryan Gusto3.5 (-136 / +113)14.5 (-110 / -116)
Sonny Gray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W6.09767244
W6.09767244Aug 15@ W7.08676100
W7.08676100Aug 10@ L6.09946122
L6.09946122Aug 5vs W6.08383200
W6.08383200Jul 30@ W7.09757244
W7.09757244Ryan Gusto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L0.2600000
L0.2600000Aug 21vs W4.06225100
W4.06225100Aug 15@ W4.27066024
W4.27066024Aug 9vs W4.06043122
W4.06043122Aug 4@ L6.08355011
L6.08355011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sonny Gray
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.05.40poor5.08.01.0(1)
at MIA—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs L5.09158133
L5.09158133Ryan Gusto
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS0.20.00elite0.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L0.2600000
L0.2600000home starts2.72.20elite2.02.70.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs L0.2600000
L0.2600000Aug 21vs W4.06225100
W4.06225100Aug 9vs W4.06043122
W4.06043122Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-0 vs MIA this season (2 games).
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have won 5 straight.
- BOS are 4-1 in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 4-1 in Sonny Gray's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 4.0 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.8 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 0-3 to the over in Sonny Gray's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 0-2 vs BOS this season (2 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 4-1 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 4-1 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 6.6 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.4 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-2 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- BOS bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- MIA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: last start: 62 pitches over 4.0 IP
Ryan Gusto u14.5 Outs (-115)
Gusto has gone 4.0, 4.2 and 4.0 innings in his last three starts — 12, 14 and 12 outs — on pitch counts of 60, 70 and 62, and averages 4.2 IP/gs over that window. The line asks for five full innings against a Boston lineup at 144 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 136 over their last 12, striking out just 16.4% of the time over the last 6, which means long innings and deep counts rather than quick outs. Miami's bullpen has thrown only 2.0 innings over the past two days and is ready early, and the market is pricing this as a coin flip when he has not reached the number once in his last three trips out.
Sonny Gray u5.5 Ks (-113)
Gray's 21.5 K% over his last 3 starts sits above an 18.4 Whiff% on the same window, so the strikeouts are coming from called strikes rather than swings and misses, and his 4, 7 and 6 in those starts came against Toronto, Pittsburgh (27% K) and San Francisco (28% K) — both of the big totals were built against lineups that strike out far more than tonight's. Miami puts the ball in play at a 20.8 K% and 21.1 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, and Gray needed 91 pitches to get 5 strikeouts through five innings against them in July. The number is set off strikeout totals that his opponents produced as much as he did.
COL @ WSN✓6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
COL @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tanner Gordon R
xERA3.42 (good)ERA4.97 (below)K%14.8 (below)Whiff%21.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.2 (below)Barrel%2.3 (elite)IP/gs12.7 IP/gsH/gs16.0PC/gs64BB%3.7 (elite)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+74 (poor)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%32.3 (below)
L12
wRC+75 (poor)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%30.5 (below)
Will Dion LBULK
Opener: Matt Waldron (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA1.34 (elite)ERA0.00 (elite)K%41.4 (elite)Whiff%35.7 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs8.3 IP/gsH/gs1.0PC/gs42BB%10.3 (below)
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+64 (poor)K%27.2 (below)Whiff%20.3 (above)HH%38.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+61 (poor)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%31.8 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 5.19 (below)ERA 3.99 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 2.83 (elite)ERA 3.16 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+122+1.5 (-180)O9.0 (-110)WSN-129-1.5 (+155)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+105+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-132)WSN-128-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL4.5 (+105/+116)2.5 (+124/-160)WSN4.5 (-104/-115)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTanner Gordon3.5 (-115 / +106)16.5 (-102 / -122)Will Dion——
Tanner Gordon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs L5.18229255
L5.18229255Aug 15@ L4.0*6343000
L4.0*6343000Aug 9@ L3.1*4824022
L3.1*4824022Aug 3vs L6.0*5838046
L6.0*5838046Jul 25@ L2.0*3542111
L2.0*3542111Will Dion · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21@ L3.0*4841200
L3.0*4841200Aug 19@ W1.0*1410000
W1.0*1410000Aug 15@ L4.1*6470100
L4.1*6470100Aug 9vs W3.0*4111000
W3.0*4111000Aug 5@ W0.2*600100
W0.2*600100Trends · COL
- COL are 2-3 vs WSN this season (5 games).
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-3 in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-1 in Tanner Gordon's last 2 away starts.
- COL average 4.2 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.5 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-2 vs COL this season (5 games).
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- WSN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 1-1 to the over in Will Dion's last 2 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph S
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- OPENER: WSN start Matt Waldron (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.3 IP (longest 2.0)), with Will Dion (LHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — COL's offense line is split against LHP, not the opener's.
- WSN — Will Dion: small sample: 8.1 IP over 3 starts
- COL offense: K% 27.2 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 20.3 supports
- COL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.19 over its last 12
- COL bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- COL — Tanner Gordon: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15, 2026-08-09
- WSN — Will Dion: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-21, 2026-08-19
Tanner Gordon u3.5 Ks (+115)
Gordon has averaged 2.0 strikeouts per start over his last 3 on a 14.8 K% and 21.6 Whiff%, and he got just 2 in 5.1 innings his last time out. Those totals came against San Francisco lineups striking out at 28%, while Washington makes far more contact at an 18.6 K% vs RHP over their last 6, down from 21.0 over their last 12. His outs line of 16.5 caps him around five and a half innings, so he needs four strikeouts in an outing where he has been averaging two. The market has him priced for better than a strikeout every other inning against the wrong lineup for it.
COL @ WSN u8.5 (+102)
Two of the weakest offenses on the board meet here: Colorado sits at a 64 wRC+ vs left-handers over its last 6 games and 61 over its last 12, while Washington is at a 74 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 and 75 over its last 12 — both numbers are established rather than streaky. Will Dion carries a 1.34 xERA over his last 3 outings and the Nationals bullpen behind him has a 2.83 xERA with a 26.1% strikeout rate over its last 12 games, so the innings after the opener are covered by the better relief corps. Colorado's own bullpen at a 5.19 xERA is the one leak in the game, and it is not enough to carry a number this high with neither lineup hitting.
HOU @ NYY✓7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
HOU @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Peter Lambert R
xERA3.67 (good)ERA8.56 (poor)K%17.9 (avg)Whiff%23.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.8 (elite)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs91BB%10.4 (below)
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%25.5 (below)Whiff%25.3 (below)HH%47.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+96 (avg)K%27.4 (below)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%47.0 (elite)
Elmer Rodriguez R
xERA5.02 (below)ERA4.85 (below)K%11.1 (poor)Whiff%27.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs79BB%11.1 (below)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+101 (avg)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 4.68 (below)
NYY
xERA 3.12 (good)ERA 2.68 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+110-1.5 (+165)O9.0 (+101)NYY-116-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-105+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-130)NYY-118-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU4.5 (+114/-135)2.5 (+114/-145)NYY4.5 (+100/-128)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPeter Lambert5.5 (+120 / +128)15.5 (-114 / -116)Elmer Rodriguez3.5 (-118 / -101)14.5 (-123 / -107)
Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs L3.27938299
L3.27938299Aug 14vs W5.09664222
W5.09664222Aug 8@ L5.09735323
L5.09735323Aug 2vs W5.28383222
W5.28383222Jul 28@ W5.09067122
W5.09067122Elmer Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs L4.08044233
L4.08044233May 17@ L4.16415111
L4.16415111May 5vs W4.29426433
W4.29426433Apr 29@ L4.08034422
L4.08034422SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Elmer Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU—
home starts4.16.59poor3.05.03.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs L4.08044233
L4.08044233May 5vs W4.29426433
W4.29426433Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-2 vs NYY this season (4 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 5.0 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.0 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 2-3 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 0-2 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-2 vs HOU this season (4 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 1-3 in Elmer Rodriguez's last 4 starts.
- NYY are 1-1 in Elmer Rodriguez's last 2 home starts.
- NYY average 3.5 runs/game in Elmer Rodriguez's last 4 starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Elmer Rodriguez's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph S
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- NYY — Elmer Rodriguez: Whiff% 27.1 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.1 shows
- HOU — Peter Lambert: last start: 79 pitches over 3.2 IP
- HOU — Peter Lambert: 2026-08-20: 9 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 25); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.60 ERA equivalent
- NYY — Elmer Rodriguez: 66 days since last start (2026-06-21) news ↗
Elmer Rodriguez u14.5 Outs (-107)
Rodriguez has not started a game in 66 days and his last 3 outings produced 14, 13 and 12 outs on a 4.3 IP/gs, with an 11.1% walk rate that has him at 94, 64 and 80 pitches for those short lines. Houston brings a 101 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 games and a lineup led by Peña, Alvarez, Paredes and Altuve, and the Yankees bullpen has not worked in the past two days, so there is no reason to stretch him. Clearing 15 outs means a fifth inning he has completed once in three tries, and that was before a two-month layoff the market has not discounted.
KCR @ TOR7:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
KCR @ TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.03 (avg)ERA2.45 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.4 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs94BB%10.1 (below)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%17.5 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%38.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%19.3 (above)Whiff%20.3 (above)HH%35.2 (avg)
S. Woods Richardson RBULK
Opener: Spencer Miles (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA2.96 (elite)ERA2.08 (elite)K%40.0 (elite)Whiff%29.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs4.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs23BB%13.3 (poor)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+149 (elite)K%15.8 (elite)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+123 (above)K%18.7 (above)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%36.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.46 (avg)ERA 3.68 (good)
TOR
xERA 2.75 (elite)ERA 3.86 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+142+1.5 (-157)O8.5 (-103)TOR-148-1.5 (+136)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+120+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-128)TOR-150-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-135/+105)TOR4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URandy Dobnak2.5 (-111 / -107)16.5 (+102 / -102)S. Woods Richardson——
Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs W4.09646400
W4.09646400Aug 15@ L5.29364200
L5.29364200Aug 9vs L5.094410144
L5.094410144Aug 4vs W5.09013311
W5.09013311Jul 29@ W7.010144100
W7.010144100S. Woods Richardson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@ L1.0*2111011
L1.0*2111011Aug 21@ L1.0*2030100
L1.0*2030100Aug 15vs W2.1*2920100
W2.1*2920100Aug 10vs W3.0*4524111
W3.0*4524111Jun 25vs L3.0*4310400
L3.0*4310400SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
S. Woods Richardson
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.15.29poor4.06.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 30@ L5.08325122
L5.08325122Apr 7@ L5.210768444
L5.210768444home starts—
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR have won 9 straight.
- KCR are 3-2 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 in Randy Dobnak's last 3 away starts.
- KCR average 4.0 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 2.3 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-0 in S. Woods Richardson's last 2 starts.
- TOR are 1-0 in S. Woods Richardson's last 1 home starts.
- TOR average 8.5 runs/game in S. Woods Richardson's last 2 starts.
- TOR average 10.0 runs/game in S. Woods Richardson's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
71°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph E
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- OPENER: TOR start Spencer Miles (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 0.9 IP (longest 1.0)), with S. Woods Richardson (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — KCR's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- TOR — S. Woods Richardson: small sample: 4.1 IP over 3 starts
- KCR offense: Whiff% 21.0 (last 6) runs well above what K% 15.8 shows
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: 2026-08-09: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- TOR — S. Woods Richardson: 90 days since last start (2026-05-28) news ↗
- TOR — S. Woods Richardson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-23, 2026-08-21
- TOR — S. Woods Richardson: last start: 67 pitches over 2.2 IP
AI Analysis
Kansas City's 149 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 games is real but Toronto's bullpen carries a 2.75 xERA over its last 12 and will handle most of this game behind the opener, which makes the run distribution too murky to bet a total or a side at these prices. Dobnak's strikeout line sits at 2.5 against a Blue Jays lineup striking out just 17.5% of the time vs right-handers over its last 6 games, and his outs line at 16.5 is a fair read on a 4.9 IP/gs that included a 4.0-inning start last time. Woods Richardson has 4.1 innings across his last 3 appearances, 90 days since his last true start and no props posted, so there is nothing to take on him either.
MIL @ NYM7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
MIL @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Dustin May R
xERA5.79 (poor)ERA6.00 (poor)K%18.8 (avg)Whiff%21.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs82BB%10.9 (below)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+136 (elite)K%18.8 (above)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%44.5 (above)
L12
wRC+133 (elite)K%21.5 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%43.3 (above)
Robert Stock R
xERA4.03 (avg)ERA6.94 (poor)K%23.8 (good)Whiff%24.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%20.6 (elite)Barrel%8.8 (avg)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs82BB%17.5 (poor)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+127 (above)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%54.8 (elite)
L12
wRC+117 (above)K%22.0 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%53.9 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.52 (elite)ERA 1.41 (elite)
NYM
xERA 3.56 (good)ERA 3.46 (good)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-148-1.5 (+110)O8.5 (-102)NYM+144+1.5 (-124)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-160-0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-118)NYM+130+0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (-108/-110)2.5 (+105/-135)NYM3.5 (-106/-120)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDustin May4.5 (-120 / +106)15.5 (-107 / -122)Robert Stock4.5 (+140 / -164)13.5 (-134 / +101)
Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs L2.06617277
L2.06617277Aug 12@ L7.08364211
L7.08364211Aug 6vs W6.09753322
W6.09753322Jul 29vs W5.07031200
W5.07031200Jul 24vs L6.08987111
L6.08987111Robert Stock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W4.18362311
W4.18362311Aug 14vs W4.18453301
W4.18453301Aug 8@ L3.08049588
L3.08049588Aug 2vs L5.07043011
L5.07043011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM6.01.50elite5.55.01.5(2)
at NYM6.00.00elite6.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 9@ W6.010164100
W6.010164100Jun 2vs L6.08856222
L6.08856222Robert Stock
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL—
home starts4.41.36elite5.02.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W4.18362311
W4.18362311Aug 14vs W4.18453301
W4.18453301Aug 2vs L5.07043011
L5.07043011Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-2 vs NYM this season (4 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-1 in Dustin May's last 2 away starts.
- MIL average 3.8 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 3.5 runs/game in Dustin May's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 1-1 to the over in Dustin May's last 2 starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 2-2 vs MIL this season (4 games).
- NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 2-2 in Robert Stock's last 4 starts.
- NYM are 2-1 in Robert Stock's last 3 home starts.
- NYM average 2.0 runs/game in Robert Stock's last 4 starts.
- NYM average 2.7 runs/game in Robert Stock's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 0-4 to the over in Robert Stock's last 4 starts.
- NYM are 0-3 to the over in Robert Stock's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
74°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph S
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- NYM — Robert Stock: avg 3.9 IP/gs over his last 3
- MIL — Dustin May: last start: 66 pitches over 2.0 IP
- MIL — Dustin May: 2026-08-19: 7 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 32); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.14 ERA equivalent
- NYM — Robert Stock: 2026-08-08: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.10 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Both lineups are live — the Mets at a 136 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 games and Milwaukee at 127 — but both bullpens are strong, with the Brewers at a 2.52 xERA and the Mets at a 3.56 over their last 12, which caps the over at 8.5 and leaves no side worth laying -148 on with May carrying a 5.79 xERA over his last 3. May's 4.5 strikeouts is a fair number: he posted 5, 6 and 1 in those starts against a Mets lineup striking out only 18.8% of the time over its last 6, and his outs line at 15.5 already accounts for the 2.0-inning start that ended his last outing. Stock's outs line at 13.5 is set right at the 4.1 innings he has thrown in each of his last two, and his 4.5 strikeouts is priced through the under at a number he has cleared twice in three.
LAD @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
LAD @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Roki Sasaki R
xERA3.92 (avg)ERA3.18 (good)K%18.6 (avg)Whiff%27.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%48.0 (poor)Barrel%4.0 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs95BB%10.0 (avg)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+58 (poor)K%27.6 (below)Whiff%25.0 (below)HH%41.9 (above)
L12
wRC+58 (poor)K%25.2 (below)Whiff%21.8 (avg)HH%40.3 (above)
AJ Smith-Shawver R
xERA5.06 (below)ERA6.23 (poor)K%17.5 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%10.7 (avg)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs72BB%12.5 (below)
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 2.77 (elite)ERA 3.52 (good)
ATL
xERA 3.41 (good)ERA 3.29 (good)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-120-1.5 (+136)O8.5 (-112)ATL+112+1.5 (-157)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-132-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-122)ATL+106+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (+102/-120)2.5 (+110/-140)ATL3.5 (-138/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URoki Sasaki5.5 (+104 / +138)16.5 (+100 / -123)AJ Smith-Shawver4.5 (+130 / +120)14.5 (-115 / -105)
Roki Sasaki · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ W5.09967122
W5.09967122Aug 13vs L6.010124522
L6.010124522Aug 7@ L6.08654122
L6.08654122Jul 30vs W5.19075322
W5.19075322Jul 24@ W7.09493211
W7.09493211AJ Smith-Shawver · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ L4.17535344
L4.17535344Jul 29@ L4.16944222
L4.16944222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Roki Sasaki
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.05.40poor4.06.02.0(1)
at ATL5.05.40poor4.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 3@ W5.09846233
W5.09846233AJ Smith-Shawver
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD—
home starts6.11.48elite5.73.33.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 15vs W6.08662201
W6.08662201May 5vs W8.09951400
W8.09951400Apr 5vs L4.28267333
L4.28267333Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-3 vs ATL this season (4 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 3-2 in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Roki Sasaki's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 4.6 runs/game in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Roki Sasaki's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 1-4 to the over in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 0-3 to the over in Roki Sasaki's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 3-1 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 0-2 in AJ Smith-Shawver's last 2 starts.
- ATL average 3.0 runs/game in AJ Smith-Shawver's last 2 starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- ATL — AJ Smith-Shawver: small sample: 8.2 IP over 3 starts
- ATL — AJ Smith-Shawver: last start: 75 pitches over 4.1 IP
- ATL — AJ Smith-Shawver: 2026-08-19: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 1 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.39 ERA equivalent
- ATL — AJ Smith-Shawver: recent opponents low-K: NYM 19%, MIN 15%
AJ Smith-Shawver u14.5 Outs (-111)
Smith-Shawver has recorded 13 outs in each of his last two starts, finishing at 69 and 75 pitches, and averages 4.3 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 12.5 BB% — the walks are what keep ending these outings early. He faces a Dodgers lineup at 117 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, up from 102 over their last 12, which grinds counts rather than gives away outs. The number asks him to complete five innings, something he has not done in either start since returning, and Atlanta's bullpen has not worked in the past two days and is fully available to take it from him.
ATL Team Total u3.5 (+110)
Atlanta sits at a 58 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 58 over its last 12 — the same poor number in both windows, with a 27.6% strikeout rate over the last 6 — and it faces Sasaki's 3.92 xERA and 27.9% whiff rate over his last 3. Behind him is a Dodgers bullpen at 2.77 xERA with a 29.1% K rate over its last 12 and no relief innings in the past two days, so the late innings offer no relief either. Atlanta has scored 3.0 runs per game in this starter's last two outings, and a plus price on holding a bottom-of-the-league offense to three is more than this matchup warrants.
TEX @ CHW✓7:40 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
TEX @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.24 (good)ERA2.12 (elite)K%29.2 (elite)Whiff%36.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs101BB%6.9 (good)
CHW vs LHP
L6
wRC+69 (poor)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%47.2 (elite)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%28.7 (poor)HH%41.9 (above)
Sean Burke R
xERA3.15 (good)ERA4.67 (below)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%26.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%42.6 (below)Barrel%7.4 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%4.2 (elite)
TEX vs RHP
L6
wRC+114 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%37.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%26.5 (below)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 4.74 (below)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 3.62 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+110+1.5 (-205)O8.0 (-110)CHW-118-1.5 (+176)U8.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+105+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (+116)CHW-130-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (-125/+105)1.5 (-130/+100)CHW3.5 (-138/+114)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMacKenzie Gore6.5 (+132 / -153)17.5 (+102 / -113)Sean Burke5.5 (-132 / +120)17.5 (-130 / +110)
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W6.010072100
W6.010072100Aug 15@ W5.29958233
W5.29958233Aug 10@ W5.110394211
W5.110394211Aug 4vs W6.09943300
W6.09943300Jul 29@ L7.09593033
L7.09593033Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W6.09847044
W6.09847044Aug 16@ W4.17225344
W4.17225344Aug 11vs L7.09483011
L7.09483011Aug 5@ L4.19145222
L4.19145222Jul 30vs W6.091103200
W6.091103200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.01.50elite6.03.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 23vs W6.08963311
W6.08963311home starts6.32.37elite7.34.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W6.09847044
W6.09847044Aug 11vs L7.09483011
L7.09483011Jul 30vs W6.091103200
W6.091103200Trends · TEX
- TEX are 2-3 vs CHW this season (5 games).
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 4-1 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 3.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.0 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 1-4 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 0-3 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 3-2 vs TEX this season (5 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 3-2 in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 3-2 in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 3.8 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 5.4 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 3-2 to the over in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-1 to the over in Sean Burke's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
74°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph NNE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- CHW bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- CHW — Sean Burke: 2026-08-16: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.64 ERA equivalent
TEX Team Total u3.5 (-102)
Texas is at 71 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 68 over their last 12 with a 25.0 K% on the last-6 window — an established weak offense, not a short slump — and Sean Burke has a 3.15 xERA, 4.2 BB% and 15.5 K-BB% over his last 3 starts, including 6 innings of one-run, six-strikeout ball against this same club. Texas has averaged 3.2 runs per game in MacKenzie Gore's last five starts and their totals have gone under in seven of their last ten. The market is asking four runs from a lineup that has not been producing them against a strike-throwing right-hander at home.
MacKenzie Gore o6.5 Ks (+116)
Gore has 9, 5 and 7 strikeouts over his last 3 starts on a 29.2% K rate and a 36.9% whiff rate, and he has thrown 103, 99 and 100 pitches in those outings with an outs line of 17.5 giving him a full six innings of work. Chicago strikes out at 26.4% vs LHP over its last 6 and 26.4% over its last 12 — the same high number in both windows — with a 69 wRC+ vs LHP over the last 6. A left-hander missing bats at that rate against a lineup that whiffs 25.7% of the time should be favored to reach seven, not paid plus money for it.
BAL @ STL7:45 PM · Busch StadiumHot
BAL @ STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Bradish R
xERA5.20 (below)ERA3.06 (good)K%16.2 (below)Whiff%21.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%5.5 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs97BB%8.1 (avg)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+73 (poor)K%25.9 (below)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%43.9 (above)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%42.3 (above)
Michael McGreevy R
xERA3.19 (good)ERA3.18 (good)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%3.9 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs98BB%8.5 (avg)
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+101 (avg)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%44.2 (above)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (avg)HH%44.5 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 2.63 (elite)
STL
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 6.40 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-106-1.5 (+148)O8.5 (-105)STL+100+1.5 (-176)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-116-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-110)STL-108+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL4.5 (+110/-138)2.5 (+124/-160)STL3.5 (-136/+110)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Bradish4.5 (-104 / -116)17.5 (+101 / -122)Michael McGreevy4.5 (+120 / -147)16.5 (+101 / -132)
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20vs L5.210058235
L5.210058235Aug 15@ W6.09337422
W6.09337422Aug 8@ L6.09845012
L6.09845012Aug 2vs L3.05332222
L3.05332222Jul 27@ W4.293410155
W4.293410155Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20@ W5.19043233
W5.19043233Aug 15@ W6.010265203
W6.010265203Aug 9vs W5.210248233
W5.210248233Aug 3@ W4.19154122
W4.19154122Jul 28vs L1.26328277
L1.26328277SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL—
home starts4.210.08poor3.07.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W5.210248233
W5.210248233Jul 28vs L1.26328277
L1.26328277Jul 23vs L6.19537344
L6.19537344Trends · BAL
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 2-3 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 2.8 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 4.0 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 3 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- STL have lost 4 straight.
- STL are 4-1 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 8.0 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 4.0 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 4-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-0 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph NW
APF 102 — Neutral
AI Analysis
St. Louis at a 73 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 games and 78 over its last 12 meets Baltimore at 101 and 105 in the same windows, which is close to what the pick'em moneyline and the 8.5 total already say. Bradish's strikeout number at 4.5 runs into the problem that his 16.2% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts is modest even against a Cardinals lineup that whiffs, and his outs line at 17.5 sits exactly where his 6.0, 6.0 and 5.2-inning outings landed. McGreevy's 4.5 strikeouts is priced at his 4.7 per start over his last 3 and his outs line at 16.5 matches a 5.7 IP/gs, so neither side of either number offers anything.
MIN @ ATH✓9:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
MIN @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Connor Prielipp L
xERA4.85 (below)ERA9.56 (poor)K%27.8 (good)Whiff%29.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%47.7 (poor)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs95BB%11.1 (below)
ATH vs LHP
L6
wRC+63 (poor)K%35.7 (poor)Whiff%35.4 (poor)HH%44.4 (above)
L12
wRC+125 (above)K%23.0 (avg)Whiff%25.1 (below)HH%38.5 (avg)
J.T. Ginn R
xERA3.38 (good)ERA4.24 (avg)K%17.6 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%1.8 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs94BB%5.4 (good)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+82 (below)K%14.9 (elite)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%35.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%19.0 (above)Whiff%23.0 (avg)HH%42.6 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 4.63 (below)ERA 5.90 (poor)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 4.44 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN-129-1.5 (+114)O10.5 (-104)ATH+122+1.5 (-135)U10.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN-130-0.5 (+100)O5.5 (-115)ATH+106+0.5 (-130)U5.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN5.5 (-102/-120)2.5 (-125/-105)ATH4.5 (-106/-110)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UConnor Prielipp5.5 (-106 / -117)16.5 (-105 / -122)J.T. Ginn4.5 (+120 / -154)16.5 (+100 / -130)
Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21@ L6.09678266
L6.09678266Aug 15vs L5.09468488
L5.09468488Aug 9@ L5.09675233
L5.09675233Aug 1@ L5.18854433
L5.18854433Jul 26vs W5.27252111
W5.27252111J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21@ L5.09446233
L5.09446233Aug 15vs L6.09478044
L6.09478044Aug 9@ W6.09525213
W6.09525213Aug 4@ L6.09155233
L6.09155233Jul 18vs W6.18271300
W6.18271300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Connor Prielipp
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.21.73elite5.02.01.0(1)
at ATH—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs W5.27252111
W5.27252111J.T. Ginn
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.24.29avg5.07.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20@ W4.28157222
W4.28157222home starts6.02.49elite6.04.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L6.09478044
L6.09478044Jul 18vs W6.18271300
W6.18271300Jul 1vs W6.010443511
W6.010443511Trends · MIN
- MIN are 3-2 vs ATH this season (5 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 1-4 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-5 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 4.0 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 3.0 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-2 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 2 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-3 vs MIN this season (5 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 3-2 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 5.2 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 7.2 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-1 to the over in J.T. Ginn's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hot
96°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 109 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- MIN offense: Whiff% 21.1 (last 6) runs well above what K% 14.9 shows
- MIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- ATH bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 109)
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Ks (-111)
Prielipp has struck out 7, 6 and 7 in his last three starts on a 27.8 K% and 29.8 Whiff% over that window, and Oakland is missing bats at a 33.3% clip vs LHP over their last 6 with a 35.8 Whiff% on the same window. His posted outs line of 16.5 gives him the innings — he has gone 5, 5 and 6 in those starts and cleared six strikeouts in each. The market is anchoring on his 9.56 ERA over those three starts rather than the bat-missing underneath it, and a lineup whiffing at better than a third of its swings is the softest strikeout matchup on the board.