AI Picks · 2 Bets · Oct 15
2u Picks
1u Picks
LAD Moneyline (-155)
MIL @ LAD · 8:00 PM ET
Tyler Glasnow carries an elite 2.11 xERA and has struck out 7, 10 and 11 batters in his last three starts (38.8% K% over that span), while Dustin May's recent form has fallen apart for Milwaukee — an 8.87 ERA over his last 3 outings with none of them reaching 3.1 innings, and a 30.0% K% that is running well above what his 21.1% Whiff% over the same stretch actually supports, which points to regression rather than a repeatable rate. Milwaukee's bullpen is already carrying elevated stress (4.0 innings over the last two days) and will again be asked to cover extra innings behind a short-leashed starter against a Dodgers lineup that, even in a down stretch against right-handed pitching (71 wRC+ last 6 vs RHP), only needs modest support from an elite starter and a worn-down opponent bullpen. The market's -155 price implies a 59% win probability for LAD, which undersells the gap between an ace pitching deep on one side and a fading starter who can't finish three innings backed by a tired pen on the other.
Found at 8:48 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
TBR Team Total u2.5 (+122)
TBR @ CLE · 1:00 PM ET
TBR's bats have gone cold against right-handed pitching, posting just a 57 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 games, well down from 85 over their last 12 — a lineup in a real slump rather than its established level. They now face Gavin Williams, who carries an elite 2.28 xERA and a 52.2% K% over his last 3 starts, and who has specifically dominated this club: 0.63 ERA with 7.1 IP/gs and 6.0 K/gs across two meetings, including a 7.2 IP, 9-strikeout, shutout outing against Tampa Bay this season on Apr 29. Cleveland's bullpen behind him has also been stingy, running a 29.3% hard-hit rate allowed over its last 12 games. The market's +122 price implies only a 43% chance TBR stays under 2.5 runs, underselling how cold this lineup is specifically against this caliber of right-hander, even though Tampa Bay's overall scoring pace (6.6 runs/game away over its last 5) looks healthy against the league as a whole.
Found at 8:48 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
TBR @ 
CLE✓1:00 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
TBR @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Griffin Jax R
xERA2.17 (elite)ERA0.90 (elite)K%27.0 (good)Whiff%32.4 (elite)BB%8.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%25.0 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs64
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+116 (above)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%16.8 (elite)BB%9.9 (above)HH%36.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%18.7 (above)Whiff%18.1 (above)BB%12.4 (elite)HH%37.8 (avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA2.28 (elite)ERA1.54 (elite)K%52.2 (elite)Whiff%46.5 (elite)BB%10.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs92
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+57 (poor)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)BB%2.5 (poor)HH%38.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (above)BB%5.9 (poor)HH%41.8 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 3.74 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.59 (good)ERA 2.76 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+220+1.5 (-142)O5.5 (+108)CLE-251-1.5 (+112)U5.5 (-130)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR+120+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-102)CLE-142-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR2.5 (-154/+122)1.5 (+120/-154)CLE3.5 (+108/-135)1.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGriffin Jax3.5 (-146 / +116)11.5 (-120 / -108)Gavin Williams6.5 (-102 / -125)16.5 (+116 / +101)
Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26 '26@ 
W3.05212000
W3.05212000Sep 20 '26vs 
W5.07453200
W5.07453200Sep 15 '26vs 
W5.06772000
W5.06772000Sep 9 '26@ 
W5.06622111
W5.06622111Sep 2 '26vs 
L2.26317266
L2.26317266Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
W3.17445444
W3.17445444Sep 20 '26vs W7.08993100
W7.08993100Sep 14 '26vs 
L5.011374322
L5.011374322Sep 6 '26vs 
W6.099114322
W6.099114322Sep 1 '26vs 
W7.097132101
W7.097132101SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE1.00.00elite1.02.00.0(1)
at CLE—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 5 '25vs L1.01812000
L1.01812000Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR7.10.63elite6.06.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 29 '26vs W7.29595001
W7.29595001Sep 5 '25@ W7.09537311
W7.09537311home starts6.02.00elite9.03.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 20 '26vs W7.08993100
W7.08993100Sep 14 '26vs L5.011374322
L5.011374322Sep 6 '26vs W6.099114322
W6.099114322Trends · TBR
- TBR are 6-3 vs CLE this season (9 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 4-1 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Griffin Jax's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 6.6 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-1 to the over in Griffin Jax's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-6 vs TBR this season (9 games).
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 4-1 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 4-1 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
64°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 3 mph SSE
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- TBR — Griffin Jax: 19 days since last start (2026-09-26) news ↗
- TBR — Griffin Jax: last start: 52 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 20 days since last start (2026-09-25) news ↗
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 74 pitches over 3.1 IP news ↗
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-09-25: 4 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 12); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
TBR Team Total u2.5 (+122)
TBR's bats have gone cold against right-handed pitching, posting just a 57 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 games, well down from 85 over their last 12 — a lineup in a real slump rather than its established level. They now face Gavin Williams, who carries an elite 2.28 xERA and a 52.2% K% over his last 3 starts, and who has specifically dominated this club: 0.63 ERA with 7.1 IP/gs and 6.0 K/gs across two meetings, including a 7.2 IP, 9-strikeout, shutout outing against Tampa Bay this season on Apr 29. Cleveland's bullpen behind him has also been stingy, running a 29.3% hard-hit rate allowed over its last 12 games. The market's +122 price implies only a 43% chance TBR stays under 2.5 runs, underselling how cold this lineup is specifically against this caliber of right-hander, even though Tampa Bay's overall scoring pace (6.6 runs/game away over its last 5) looks healthy against the league as a whole.
MIL @ 
LAD✓8:00 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
MIL @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Dustin May RO
xERA3.67 (good)ERA5.14 (below)K%30.0 (elite)Whiff%21.1 (avg)BB%10.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%11.8 (below)IP/gs3.5 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs55
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+71 (poor)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)BB%12.6 (elite)HH%37.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)BB%11.4 (elite)HH%42.0 (above)
Tyler Glasnow R
xERA2.11 (elite)ERA3.18 (good)K%38.8 (elite)Whiff%35.9 (elite)BB%13.4 (poor)
More Stats
HH%34.4 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs93
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%18.9 (above)BB%10.0 (above)HH%37.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (above)BB%10.5 (above)HH%37.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 1.62 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 2.70 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+132+1.5 (-168)O7.5 (-110)LAD-155-1.5 (+140)U7.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+132+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (+112)LAD-160-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL3.5 (+108/-125)1.5 (-125/-105)LAD4.5 (+114/+112)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDustin May——Tyler Glasnow6.5 (+122 / +116)14.5 (-132 / +108)
Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26 '26vs 
W3.05853122
W3.05853122Sep 22 '26@ L2.03621222
L2.03621222Sep 18 '26@ 
W2.17046133
W2.17046133Sep 11 '26vs 
W6.08462100
W6.08462100Sep 5 '26@ L3.25655022
L3.25655022Tyler Glasnow · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24 '26vs 
L6.191113233
L6.191113233Sep 18 '26vs 
W6.098103222
W6.098103222Sep 12 '26@ 
L4.09175444
L4.09175444Sep 5 '26vs 
W6.09686344
W6.09686344Aug 30 '26@ W7.08562111
W7.08562111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.04.50below3.07.02.0(1)
at LAD—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 3 '26vs L6.09537233
L6.09537233Tyler Glasnow
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.50.82elite5.53.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18 '25vs L6.08864111
L6.08864111Jul 9 '25@ L5.08552301
L5.08552301home starts6.04.48avg9.74.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24 '26vs L6.191113233
L6.191113233Sep 18 '26vs W6.098103222
W6.098103222Sep 5 '26vs W6.09686344
W6.09686344Trends · MIL
- MIL are 7-3 vs LAD this season (10 games).
- MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL have won 4 straight.
- MIL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-3 in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 7.2 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 2-3 to the over in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Dustin May's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 3-7 vs MIL this season (10 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 3-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 5.0 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 5.2 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 2-3 to the over in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-1 to the over in Tyler Glasnow's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
90°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph SW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 11
- OPENER: MIL start Shane Drohan (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 2.1 IP (longest 3.7)), with Dustin May (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — LAD's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- MIL — Dustin May: small sample: 7.0 IP over 3 starts
- MIL — Dustin May: avg 3.5 IP/gs over his last 3
- MIL — Dustin May: K% 30.0 (last 3 starts) runs well above what Whiff% 21.1 supports
- MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- MIL — Dustin May: 19 days since last start (2026-09-26) news ↗
- MIL — Dustin May: last start: 58 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- MIL — Dustin May: recent opponents high-K: BAL 29%, STL 32%
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: 21 days since last start (2026-09-24) news ↗
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: 2026-09-12: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.71 ERA equivalent
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: recent opponents low-K: MIA 18%, SDP 19%
LAD Moneyline (-155)
Tyler Glasnow carries an elite 2.11 xERA and has struck out 7, 10 and 11 batters in his last three starts (38.8% K% over that span), while Dustin May's recent form has fallen apart for Milwaukee — an 8.87 ERA over his last 3 outings with none of them reaching 3.1 innings, and a 30.0% K% that is running well above what his 21.1% Whiff% over the same stretch actually supports, which points to regression rather than a repeatable rate. Milwaukee's bullpen is already carrying elevated stress (4.0 innings over the last two days) and will again be asked to cover extra innings behind a short-leashed starter against a Dodgers lineup that, even in a down stretch against right-handed pitching (71 wRC+ last 6 vs RHP), only needs modest support from an elite starter and a worn-down opponent bullpen. The market's -155 price implies a 59% win probability for LAD, which undersells the gap between an ace pitching deep on one side and a fading starter who can't finish three innings backed by a tired pen on the other.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.