AI Picks · 19 Bets · Jul 25
NYY @ PHI o8.5 (-115)
Brian Keller is a near-disqualifying starter — only 2.2 IP over 3 starts, NO STATS effectively (bullpen appearances), BB% 21%, xERA 3.67 but sample is meaningless. This is essentially a bullpen game for PHI. Ryan Weathers is struggling (recent ERA 5.62, xERA 3.57) and has a 10.71 ERA in his only start at Citizens Bank Park. NYY offense is above average (wRC+ 116 vs RHP). PHI offense is average vs LHP (wRC+ 114). PHI bullpen xERA 3.59 but ERA 5.92. NYY bullpen xERA 4.08. With effectively no starter for PHI, a struggling Weathers for NYY, two decent offenses, and shaky bullpens on both sides — this game should produce runs. The 8.5 total seems low given both teams should score. This is a medium confidence play given the -115 price.
Found at 5:18 AM ET
ATL Team Total o4.5 (-102)
ATL's offense is elite (wRC+ 143 vs RHP in L12) and Brandon Young has a concerning HH% of 45.6% plus a skewed recent ERA (4 ER outing was flagged as an outlier, but 5.0 IP in each of his last 3 starts means he's not going deep). BAL bullpen xERA is 2.10 (excellent), which limits late-inning runs, but ATL is elite enough to score 4-5 off Young before the pen takes over. Young's history at home is 2.37 ERA in 3gs which is solid, but ATL's wRC+ 143 is the strongest offense in this slate vs RHP. BAL's offense vs struggling Bryce Elder (recent ERA 12.21!) will score plenty too, but ATL's team total over 4.5 at essentially -102 is great value for an elite offense vs an average pitcher with short outings.
Found at 10:55 AM ET
CHW F5 ML (-128)
Sean Burke is elite — xERA 1.95, recent ERA 2.09, averaging 8.3 K/start, 6.6 IP/gs. Hunter Brown faces CHW with xERA 5.95, recent ERA 6.23, BB% 21%, and genuinely poor command. CHW's bullpen is elite (xERA 2.97, ERA 2.17). HOU bullpen is solid (xERA 3.55) but the F5 is really about Burke vs Brown for 5 innings. Brown in his one visit to this park had 4.50 ERA in 6 IP — that was a good day; his general profile says he struggles. CHW wRC+ 99 vs RHP is average but enough to score off Brown. The -128 is at the acceptable pricing boundary and the compound edge here is real: elite home starter vs struggling visitor with command issues.
Found at 5:18 AM ET
ATH @ MIN o10.5 (-105)
Mason Barnett (ATH) is a disaster: xERA 10.48, ERA 11.25, HH% 59%, BB% 15%, short outings (4.0 IP total over 3 starts). ATH bullpen is catastrophic (xERA 6.33, ERA 9.00). Prielipp for MIN is struggling recently (recent ERA 5.03, recent outings showing 3ER and 4ER in 6 IP). Park is hitter-friendly (APF 109). MIN bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.95) which could cap MIN's scoring, but ATH's pitching staff is so poor that MIN should score freely early. Both pitching staffs are weak. The total is already high at 10.5, but given Barnett's extreme dysfunction (essentially a batting practice pitcher), the ATH bullpen collapse risk, and the hitter-friendly park, the over still has value at -105.
Found at 10:55 AM ET
HOU Team Total o4.5 (+118)
Sean Burke faced HOU once and gave up 19.69 ERA equivalent (3.2 IP). HOU's offense is elite (wRC+ 130 vs RHP in L12, K% 17.9% — very low strikeout rate, puts ball in play). Burke's xERA is elite (1.95) and recent ERA is good (2.09), but his one appearance vs HOU was catastrophic, and HOU makes contact at a very high rate. Burke walks few batters (BB% 1.4%) but HOU's low K% means lots of balls in play against even a good pitcher. The HOU team total over 4.5 at +118 is excellent value — positive odds on an elite offense vs a pitcher who's shown vulnerability to them specifically.
Found at 10:55 AM ET
SEA F5 ML (-116)
Bryan Woo has dominant history at Globe Life Field — 0.53 ERA in 3 starts there, 1.50 ERA vs TEX overall. His recent ERA is 3.68 (acceptable), xERA 3.35. Eovaldi has HH% 60%, Barrel% 14%, and ERA 6.00 vs xERA 3.42 — meaning he's been somewhat unlucky but his profile is still very contact-heavy. SEA's offense is poor (wRC+ 74) but Woo's dominance at this specific park is exceptional. TEX bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.48, ERA 7.31). The F5 focuses on the Woo vs Eovaldi matchup where the historical advantage is large and the park-specific data is compelling. At -116, this is within acceptable pricing.
Found at 5:18 AM ET
Hunter Greene o6.5 Ks (+102)
Greene's K% is 38.2% — one of the highest in baseball. Recent ERA is skewed by one disaster outing (8 ER in 3.1 IP flagged as outlier). His other recent start was 12 Ks in 7 IP vs CHC. STL's offense has a K% of 20.2% vs RHP — average, but Greene's elite strikeout rate (38.2%!) means he generates Ks regardless of lineup. His recent avg is 8.7 K/start. The line is 6.5 — the adjusted expectation (calibrating slightly down from 8.7 for STL's contact ability) is still ~7.5-8.5 Ks. At +102 (positive odds!), getting Over 6.5 Ks from a 38.2% K-rate pitcher is clearly undervalued by the market, likely because the recent ERA disaster scared lines lower.
Found at 10:55 AM ET
SEA @ TEX u7.5 (-115)
Bryan Woo has an outstanding history vs TEX (1.50 ERA, 3gs) and at Globe Life Field (0.53 ERA, 3gs) — this specific matchup and venue are strong signals. SEA's offense is cold (wRC+ 74 vs RHP — poor). Both bullpens are fine (SEA xERA 3.41, TEX xERA 4.50 — TEX pen is average but not a disaster). Eovaldi has a high HH%/Barrel% and poor history vs SEA (4.50 ERA, 3gs), but SEA's cold offense (wRC+ 74) means they won't capitalize fully. The under at 7.5 (-115) is reasonable: Woo dominates TEX historically, SEA's offense is cold so TEX's pen holds them, and the closed roof eliminates weather as a factor.
Found at 10:55 AM ET
Nathan Eovaldi o6.5 Ks (+115)
Eovaldi's K% is 30.4% and he's averaged 9.0 K/start in his last 3 (9K, 9K, 9K). SEA's K% vs RHP is 18.3% — actually very low, meaning they make contact. However, Eovaldi's recent K totals (9, 9, 9) came vs DET (23.1%), TOR (14.8%), SDP (18.0%) — a mix including one low-K lineup, yet he still pumped 9 Ks each time. SEA at 18.3% is low but similar to TOR and Eovaldi handled them fine. The low-K outing flag is for one start where stuff was flat, but the consistent 9 Ks in all three starts is a strong pattern. Adjusted expectation: ~7-8 Ks. Line is 6.5 at +115 — excellent positive odds with adjusted expectation well above the line.
Found at 10:55 AM ET
ATL @ BAL o9.5 (-101)
Bryce Elder is in acute meltdown form (recent ERA 12.21, xERA 5.99 — both signal run-scoring machine), Barrel% 18.6% elevates HR risk further. ATL's offense is elite in L12 (wRC+ 143 vs RHP). BAL has been scoring in run support (avg 6.6 RS in Young's L5 starts). Camden Yards is a hitter-friendly park (APF 105). BAL bullpen is a lockdown unit but ATL's is average (xERA 4.11) — Elder is the leak and he's likely to surrender 5+ runs himself, making the over reachable before the elite BAL pen even enters. Line at 9.5 has not fully accounted for Elder's catastrophic recent form.
Found at 4:44 PM ET
Bryce Elder K u4.5 (+104)
Elder's K% is a modest 18.6% and he's averaging only 4.0 K/start over his recent 3 outings. His last start was only 4.0 IP with 2 Ks vs NYM, and the start before that was 4.0 IP with 4 Ks. BAL's K% vs RHP is 23.9% — not especially high. With Elder getting knocked around early and likely exiting before accumulating many Ks, plus the Outs line at 15.5 suggesting the market expects a short outing, Under 4.5 Ks at +104 (plus money) has clear value.
Found at 4:44 PM ET
Shota Imanaga K o5.5 (-115)
Imanaga has dominant history vs PIT specifically: 3gs, 0.50 ERA, 6.0 IP/gs, and 6.0 K/gs in matchup history. His K% is 25.0% and PIT vs LHP K% is 25.7% — an excellent matchup for Ks. While his recent ERA has crept up (4.68 over last 3), his K volume in those starts was 8K, 4K, 4K (avg 5.3), and two of those three included a 4K in only 4.2 IP and a 4K in only 5.1 IP. Given the elite PIT K rate and his historical dominance of this lineup, an adjusted expectation of ~6.5 Ks is above the 5.5 line. Outs prop at 17.5 (-156) signals the market expects a full outing, giving him plenty of innings to accumulate Ks.
Found at 4:44 PM ET
Sean Burke K o5.5 (+100)
Sean Burke is averaging 8.3 K/start over his last 3 outings (11K, 8K, 6K) with an elite 35.2% K rate and xERA of 1.95. HOU's K% vs RHP is 17.9% — below average, which slightly dampens expectations, but even calibrating down from 8.3 average, an adjusted expectation of ~7 Ks is well above the 5.5 line (gap of 1.5+). The Outs line is 17.5 (nearly 6 full innings), confirming a long outing is expected. Burke has the pure strikeout stuff and the line is simply too low given his recent dominance. Plus money (+100) adds extra value.
Found at 4:44 PM ET
STL Team Total u3.5 (+106)
STL offense is among the worst in baseball recently (wRC+ 60 in L12 — poor). Hunter Greene has an elite K rate (38.2%) and while his recent ERA is elevated, much of it is driven by one catastrophic outing (8 ER in 3.1 IP on 7/4, flagged as outlier). His other two recent starts: 6.0 IP/3ER and 7.0 IP/0ER — the 7-inning shutout is more reflective of his ceiling. CIN bullpen xERA is 2.89 (excellent). Against a cold STL lineup, STL scoring under 3.5 runs at +106 (plus money) is strong value. STL's home run support in Pallante's L5 starts is only 3.2 RS average, further supporting the under.
Found at 4:44 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
ARI @ WSN F5 u4.5 (+106)
Foster Griffin is elite and dominant right now — xERA 2.34, recent ERA 0.94, 7.5 IP/gs, and has held ARI to 1.80 ERA/5.0 IP historically. ARI sends Mitch Bratt (xERA 4.69, recent ERA 5.29, only 3.6 IP/gs avg) against an elite WSN offense (wRC+ 137 vs LHP), but Griffin should absolutely neutralize ARI for 5 innings and WSN bats enough to make ARI score limited. The F5 under 4.5 at +106 is mispriced — Griffin's dominance alone limits the WSN side to 2-3 runs max across 5, and Bratt's shaky form means ARI allows runs but won't score many vs Griffin. The +106 price on a clearly elite-vs-terrible starter matchup with no rain risk is excellent value. Note: WSN bullpen is terrible (xERA 5.55) so full-game under is not appropriate, but F5 insulates from that.
Found at 5:18 AM ET
Foster Griffin K o4.5 (-120)
Griffin averaged 6.7 K/start in recent 3 outings, including 9K vs BAL and 9K vs PHI — both high-K lineups. Today's ARI offense vs LHP has K% 19.8%, which is near the average of opponents he's been striking out. His K% is elite at 23.2% and xERA 2.34 supports genuine swing-and-miss stuff. The line of 4.5 is clearly below his adjusted expected output. The flag notes the 9K outings may not repeat every time, but even regressed output should reach 5-6 Ks. At -120 this clears the pricing threshold.
Found at 5:18 AM ET
TOR @ BOS u7.5 (-105)
This is an elite pitching matchup. Sonny Gray is HOT — recent ERA 0.90, xERA 3.25, 9 K/start avg, pitching brilliantly at home (1.79 ERA, 6.7 IP/gs). Dylan Cease has xERA 2.66 (elite) and averaged 9 K/start recently — TOR's offense is cold (wRC+ 81 vs RHP, K% only 15.2% which actually means they make contact but have a weak wRC+). BOS vs Cease is average (wRC+ 104). Both bullpens are solid: TOR xERA 2.96, BOS xERA 3.11. BOS bullpen ERA 0.92 in L12 — one of the best in baseball right now. Multiple under signals clearly align: both starters elite xERA (2.66/3.25), Gray is blazing hot in recent form, both bullpens strong, and TOR offense is cold. The total at 7.5 with -105 is a gift given this pitching matchup.
Found at 5:18 AM ET
Dylan Cease K o7.5 (-110)
Cease averaged 9.0 K/start in last 3 — 9K vs SEA, 10K vs TEX, 8K vs HOU. His K% is 36.2% (elite). Today's BOS lineup has K% 20.4% vs RHP — roughly average, and Cease destroys average lineups. Adjusted expectation: he's been averaging 9K against lineups with similar or higher K rates; BOS is slightly below those opponents so adjust down to ~8K expected. The line is 7.5, making Over 7.5 well-supported at -110 pricing. His 5.0 IP/gs avg is a concern for total accumulation, but he threw 102-110 pitch counts recently and BOS is a reasonable matchup. The Outs line at 18.5 (+145) reflects market expects short outing — but recent pitch counts were 102-110, and he's going well enough to push 6 innings. Outs under at +130 is also worth noting but the K prop is the cleaner play.
Found at 5:18 AM ET
MIA Team Total u3.5 (+116)
Eury Perez is elite — xERA 1.90, ERA 0.95, K% 33.3%, Barrel% 0.0%, recent ERA 1.10. MIA's offense vs LHP is weak (wRC+ 85, K% 25.2%). SDP's bullpen xERA 2.65 is elite. The combination of Perez dominating + elite SDP pen limits MIA scoring significantly. Getting +116 on MIA under 3.5 runs is excellent value given how dominant Perez is at home (2.21 ERA, 5.4 IP/gs at home). Note: JP Sears is struggling (recent ERA 5.00, HH% 48%, last start only 55 pitches) so SDP scoring enough to win is uncertain — but this bet is purely about MIA's scoring being limited, independent of SDP's offensive output.
Found at 5:18 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
KCR @ 
DET1:10 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
KCR @ DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Wacha R
xERA4.01 (avg)K%24.5 (good)HH%35.5 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA5.40IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs99BB%10.2
DET vs RHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%23.1 (avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
Casey Mize R
xERA3.97 (avg)K%20.9 (avg)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%4.2 (elite)ERA3.45IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs85BB%7.5
KCR vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+154+1.5 (-137)O8.5 (+100)DET-180-1.5 (+120)U8.5 (-117)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+146+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-106)DET-184-0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO3.5 (-104)U3.5 (-122)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)DETO4.5 (-111)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Wacha5.5 (+125 / -160)17.5 (-148 / +117)Casey Mize5.5 (+100 / -117)16.5 (-130 / +100)
Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ W7.09636222
W7.09636222Jul 20vs 
W6.09653211
W6.09653211Jul 9@ 
L4.210456366
L4.210456366Jul 4vs 
L6.010578144
L6.010578144Jun 27@ 
L7.210576111
L7.210576111Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs L6.08533011
L6.08533011Jul 19@ 
L3.17455111
L3.17455111Jul 11vs L5.29755234
L5.29755234Jul 5@ 
W6.29445222
W6.29445222Jun 29@ 
W7.088101000
W7.088101000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Wacha
IPERAKHBB
vs DET6.12.974.34.31.7(3)
at DET6.03.484.07.01.0(3)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR4.84.412.36.71.0(3)
home starts5.54.394.75.31.0(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 3-6 vs DET this season (9 games).
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 2.2 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 2.6 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 6-3 vs KCR this season (9 games).
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 2-3 in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-4 in Casey Mize's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 4.0 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- DET average 2.2 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.00 (below avg)ERA 6.052d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.33 (good)ERA 2.592d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph WSW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- DET bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR — Michael Wacha: 2026-07-09: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- DET — Casey Mize: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
ARI @ 
WSN✓4:05 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
ARI @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Bratt L
xERA4.69 (below avg)K%13.7 (below avg)HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%10.8 (avg)ERA5.06IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs57BB%11.8
WSN vs LHP
wRC+137 (elite)K%28.7 (poor)HH%41.6 (above avg)
Foster Griffin L
xERA2.34 (elite)K%23.2 (good)HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%4.8 (elite)ERA1.20IP/gs7.5 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs76BB%1.8
ARI vs LHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%41.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+102-1.5 (+171)O7.5 (+105)WSN-115-1.5 (+188)U6.5 (+109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+132+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-138)WSN-166-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-138)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)WSNO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch Bratt3.5 (-141 / +112)14.5 (-152 / +118)Foster Griffin4.5 (-120 / +102)18.5 (+121 / +140)
Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ L2.03010200
L2.03010200Jul 20vs 
L4.28448122
L4.28448122Jul 12@ 
W3.05803333
W3.05803333Jun 24@ 
W3.05432211
W3.05432211Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs L2.03311100
L2.03311100Jul 19@ W7.09728111
W7.09728111Jul 8vs 
W7.09995011
W7.09995011Jul 3vs 
W5.08324111
W5.08324111Jun 27@ 
W7.011293201
W7.011293201SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Bratt
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN2.00.001.00.02.0(1)
at WSN2.00.001.00.02.0(1)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI3.51.292.51.50.5(2)
home starts4.71.294.03.30.7(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-2 vs WSN this season (4 games).
- ARI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI have won 4 straight.
- ARI are 2-1 in Mitch Bratt's last 3 starts.
- ARI are 2-0 in Mitch Bratt's last 2 away starts.
- ARI average 5.3 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 3 starts.
- ARI average 7.0 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 2 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-2 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 5-0 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 5-0 in Foster Griffin's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 6.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 7.2 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.492d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 5.12 (below avg)ERA 4.65
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph SE
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: avg 3.6 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.12 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: 2026-07-12: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WSN — Foster Griffin: high-K outing 2026-07-08 (9 Ks vs avg 4.3) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
ARI @ WSN F5 u4.5 (+106)
Foster Griffin is elite and dominant right now — xERA 2.34, recent ERA 0.94, 7.5 IP/gs, and has held ARI to 1.80 ERA/5.0 IP historically. ARI sends Mitch Bratt (xERA 4.69, recent ERA 5.29, only 3.6 IP/gs avg) against an elite WSN offense (wRC+ 137 vs LHP), but Griffin should absolutely neutralize ARI for 5 innings and WSN bats enough to make ARI score limited. The F5 under 4.5 at +106 is mispriced — Griffin's dominance alone limits the WSN side to 2-3 runs max across 5, and Bratt's shaky form means ARI allows runs but won't score many vs Griffin. The +106 price on a clearly elite-vs-terrible starter matchup with no rain risk is excellent value. Note: WSN bullpen is terrible (xERA 5.55) so full-game under is not appropriate, but F5 insulates from that.
Foster Griffin K o4.5 (-120)
Griffin averaged 6.7 K/start in recent 3 outings, including 9K vs BAL and 9K vs PHI — both high-K lineups. Today's ARI offense vs LHP has K% 19.8%, which is near the average of opponents he's been striking out. His K% is elite at 23.2% and xERA 2.34 supports genuine swing-and-miss stuff. The line of 4.5 is clearly below his adjusted expected output. The flag notes the 9K outings may not repeat every time, but even regressed output should reach 5-6 Ks. At -120 this clears the pricing threshold.
LAA @ SFG4:05 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
LAA @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Johnson R
xERA4.64 (below avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%28.2 (elite)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA3.86IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs66BB%11.9
SFG vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Robbie Ray L
xERA4.17 (avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%34.1 (good)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.00IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs76BB%15.9
LAA vs LHP
wRC+137 (elite)K%32.6 (poor)HH%39.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+110+1.5 (-220)O7.5 (+115)SFG-125-1.5 (+174)U6.5 (+108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+106+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-128)SFG-132-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULAAO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)SFGO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Johnson3.5 (-125 / +107)15.5 (+121 / -161)Robbie Ray5.5 (-132 / +115)15.5 (-136 / +103)
Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ L2.03221100
L2.03221100Jul 19vs W5.09152311
W5.09152311Jul 11@ 
L5.07513333
L5.07513333Jul 5vs 
L4.08766125
L4.08766125Jun 29@ 
L5.08134013
L5.08134013Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs L2.24343100
L2.24343100Jul 19@ L4.08668213
L4.08668213Jul 10vs 
L5.010044611
L5.010044611Jul 4@ W6.08845333
W6.08845333Jun 28vs 
W8.09524101
W8.09524101SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG2.00.002.01.01.0(1)
at SFG2.00.002.01.01.0(1)
Robbie Ray
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA2.20.004.03.01.0(1)
home starts5.10.593.33.72.7(3)
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 2-3 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-4 in Ryan Johnson's last 4 away starts.
- LAA average 3.6 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 1.8 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 4 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 3-2 in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 4-1 in Robbie Ray's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 3.6 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 5.6 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 2.30 (elite)ERA 2.20
SFG
xERA 2.60 (elite)ERA 4.04
Weather · Windy
70°F, Clear, Wind 16 mph WNW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- SFG — Robbie Ray: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- SFG — Robbie Ray: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-16 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 16 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
TOR @ BOS✓4:10 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
TOR @ BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.66 (elite)K%36.2 (elite)HH%28.1 (elite)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs81BB%8.6
BOS vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%38.0 (avg)
Sonny Gray R
xERA3.25 (good)K%21.1 (avg)HH%34.7 (good)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA1.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs71BB%9.9
TOR vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%14.8 (elite)HH%30.0 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+107-1.5 (+200)O5.5 (+110)BOS-125-1.5 (+220)U5.5 (-135)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-122-0.5 (+116)O3.5 (-144)BOS-102+0.5 (-152)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTORO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (-102)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)BOSO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (-105)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDylan Cease7.5 (-110 / -108)18.5 (+145 / +130)Sonny Gray4.5 (-116 / +100)18.5 (+130 / +133)
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ L2.02310000
L2.02310000Jul 20vs 
L6.010177135
L6.010177135Jul 8@ W8.0118111300
W8.0118111300Jul 3@ W7.010293100
W7.010293100Jun 27vs L4.2107104544
L4.2107104544Sonny Gray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs L2.23223000
L2.23223000Jul 19vs W6.09155411
W6.09155411Jul 10@ W6.09135111
W6.09135111Jul 4@ W6.07074211
W6.07074211Jun 28vs W7.19791100
W7.19791100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS4.12.954.33.72.3(3)
at BOS3.50.004.02.02.0(2)
Sonny Gray
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.62.933.04.50.5(2)
home starts5.10.595.33.01.7(3)
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 5-2 vs BOS this season (7 games).
- TOR are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 4-1 in Dylan Cease's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 4.2 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 6.6 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-5 vs TOR this season (7 games).
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 5-0 in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 6.0 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.8 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 4.602d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 1.66
Weather · Hitter Friendly
75°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph E
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- TOR — Dylan Cease: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TOR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
TOR @ BOS u7.5 (-105)
This is an elite pitching matchup. Sonny Gray is HOT — recent ERA 0.90, xERA 3.25, 9 K/start avg, pitching brilliantly at home (1.79 ERA, 6.7 IP/gs). Dylan Cease has xERA 2.66 (elite) and averaged 9 K/start recently — TOR's offense is cold (wRC+ 81 vs RHP, K% only 15.2% which actually means they make contact but have a weak wRC+). BOS vs Cease is average (wRC+ 104). Both bullpens are solid: TOR xERA 2.96, BOS xERA 3.11. BOS bullpen ERA 0.92 in L12 — one of the best in baseball right now. Multiple under signals clearly align: both starters elite xERA (2.66/3.25), Gray is blazing hot in recent form, both bullpens strong, and TOR offense is cold. The total at 7.5 with -105 is a gift given this pitching matchup.
Dylan Cease K o7.5 (-110)
Cease averaged 9.0 K/start in last 3 — 9K vs SEA, 10K vs TEX, 8K vs HOU. His K% is 36.2% (elite). Today's BOS lineup has K% 20.4% vs RHP — roughly average, and Cease destroys average lineups. Adjusted expectation: he's been averaging 9K against lineups with similar or higher K rates; BOS is slightly below those opponents so adjust down to ~8K expected. The line is 7.5, making Over 7.5 well-supported at -110 pricing. His 5.0 IP/gs avg is a concern for total accumulation, but he threw 102-110 pitch counts recently and BOS is a reasonable matchup. The Outs line at 18.5 (+145) reflects market expects short outing — but recent pitch counts were 102-110, and he's going well enough to push 6 innings. Outs under at +130 is also worth noting but the K prop is the cleaner play.
SDP @ 
MIA✓4:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
SDP @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Randy Vásquez
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIA
No data
Eury Perez R
xERA1.90 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA0.95IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs73BB%7.2
SDP vs RHP
wRC+152 (elite)K%18.0 (above avg)HH%44.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+142+1.5 (-175)O6.5 (-109)MIA-167-1.5 (+136)U6.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+124+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-106)MIA-156-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO3.5 (-118)U3.5 (-108)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)MIAO4.5 (+110)U3.5 (+116)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URandy Vásquez——Eury Perez5.5 (-150 / +120)17.5 (+115 / -132)
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25vs L2.02802000
L2.02802000Jul 19@ 
L6.09391300
L6.09391300Jul 11vs 
L6.09968222
L6.09968222Jul 5@ W7.09280000
W7.09280000Jun 30@ W5.18682411
W5.18682411SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP3.52.572.53.51.0(2)
home starts4.12.212.34.30.7(3)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 0-10 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA have lost 10 straight.
- MIA are 3-2 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Eury Perez's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 5.8 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 3.2 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.43 (elite)ERA 4.212d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 4.21 (avg)ERA 4.08
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- SDP — Randy Vásquez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SDP bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA Team Total u3.5 (+116)
Eury Perez is elite — xERA 1.90, ERA 0.95, K% 33.3%, Barrel% 0.0%, recent ERA 1.10. MIA's offense vs LHP is weak (wRC+ 85, K% 25.2%). SDP's bullpen xERA 2.65 is elite. The combination of Perez dominating + elite SDP pen limits MIA scoring significantly. Getting +116 on MIA under 3.5 runs is excellent value given how dominant Perez is at home (2.21 ERA, 5.4 IP/gs at home). Note: JP Sears is struggling (recent ERA 5.00, HH% 48%, last start only 55 pitches) so SDP scoring enough to win is uncertain — but this bet is purely about MIA's scoring being limited, independent of SDP's offensive output.
NYY @ PHI✓6:05 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
NYY @ PHI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Weathers L
xERA3.57 (good)K%26.2 (good)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%4.7 (elite)ERA6.43IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs93BB%6.2
PHI vs LHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%28.7 (poor)HH%37.1 (avg)
Tim Mayza
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYY
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-125-1.5 (+130)O9.0 (-110)PHI+108+1.5 (-154)U9.0 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-132-0.5 (+102)O4.5 (-135)PHI+106+0.5 (-132)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)PHIO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Weathers6.5 (+120 / -149)16.5 (-119 / -105)Tim Mayza——
Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs W4.29957255
W4.29957255Jul 10@ W5.19166011
W5.19166011Jul 5vs L4.08866244
L4.08866244Jun 29vs L1.25537125
L1.25537125Jun 24@ W6.09766212
W6.09766212SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI4.210.718.06.02.0(1)
at PHI4.210.718.06.02.0(1)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 4.2 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 2.96
PHI
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 5.92
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- PHI — Tim Mayza: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- NYY — Ryan Weathers: recent opponents high-K: WSN 29%, PIT 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
NYY @ PHI o8.5 (-115)
Brian Keller is a near-disqualifying starter — only 2.2 IP over 3 starts, NO STATS effectively (bullpen appearances), BB% 21%, xERA 3.67 but sample is meaningless. This is essentially a bullpen game for PHI. Ryan Weathers is struggling (recent ERA 5.62, xERA 3.57) and has a 10.71 ERA in his only start at Citizens Bank Park. NYY offense is above average (wRC+ 116 vs RHP). PHI offense is average vs LHP (wRC+ 114). PHI bullpen xERA 3.59 but ERA 5.92. NYY bullpen xERA 4.08. With effectively no starter for PHI, a struggling Weathers for NYY, two decent offenses, and shaky bullpens on both sides — this game should produce runs. The 8.5 total seems low given both teams should score. This is a medium confidence play given the -115 price.
CLE @ TBR6:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
CLE @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tanner Bibee R
xERA3.77 (avg)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA4.86IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs84BB%8.5
TBR vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%32.9 (below avg)
Nick Martinez R
xERA3.01 (good)K%4.3 (poor)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%4.7 (elite)ERA2.19IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs79BB%4.3
CLE vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+106-1.5 (+165)O8.0 (-106)TBR-120-1.5 (+158)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (+100)TBR-114-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCLEO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+102)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)TBRO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTanner Bibee4.5 (+133 / -166)17.5 (-135 / +104)Nick Martinez3.5 (+114 / -134)17.5 (-112 / -108)
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs W6.09556122
W6.09556122Jul 11@ W6.29435411
W6.29435411Jul 5vs L4.06216166
L4.06216166Jun 30vs L7.09125023
L7.09125023Jun 24@ W6.08933100
W6.08933100Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ W6.08206111
W6.08206111Jul 10vs W5.17014122
W5.17014122Jul 3@ W5.18533111
W5.18533111Jun 26vs W5.28536011
W5.28536011Jun 21vs W6.08854333
W6.08854333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.74.194.05.72.3(3)
at TBR6.22.903.05.01.0(1)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE7.00.004.03.01.0(1)
home starts5.43.313.04.71.3(3)
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-3 vs TBR this season (4 games).
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 4-1 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 5.8 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 4.0 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 3-1 vs CLE this season (4 games).
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 5.4 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.6 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.60 (elite)ERA 3.802d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 3.09 (good)ERA 2.282d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Dome
Flags · 4
- CLE bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 2026-07-05: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TBR — Nick Martinez: recent opponents low-K: HOU 18%, SEA 18%, TOR 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Both starters have low K rates (Bibee 12.7%, Martinez 4.3%) making props unattractive; recent ERAs are moderate and largely driven by single outlier starts; bullpens are solid on both sides but total at 8.0 is fairly priced for two ground-ball contact-oriented starters — no clear mispricing identified.
CHC @ PIT✓6:40 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
CHC @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shota Imanaga L
xERA3.69 (good)K%25.0 (good)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA1.62IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs96BB%7.3
PIT vs LHP
wRC+136 (elite)K%25.7 (below avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Paul Skenes R
xERA2.52 (elite)K%26.8 (good)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA2.45IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs92BB%5.6
CHC vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%25.3 (below avg)HH%38.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+105-1.5 (+176)O8.0 (-102)PIT-120-1.5 (+165)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC+110+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-140)PIT-135-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHCO3.5 (-122)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)PITO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+110)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShota Imanaga5.5 (-115 / -103)17.5 (-156 / +118)Paul Skenes7.5 (+112 / +116)17.5 (-164 / +130)
Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs W7.09946100
W7.09946100Jul 10@ 
L5.010257111
L5.010257111Jul 4vs L4.28684322
L4.28684322Jun 29vs W6.19749022
W6.19749022Jun 24@ W5.16944144
W5.16944144Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@ W7.010087211
W7.010087211Jul 12vs W5.18273122
W5.18273122Jul 7vs W6.09548122
W6.09548122Jul 1@ L4.08156278
L4.08156278Jun 26vs L5.09676244
L5.09676244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shota Imanaga
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.00.506.03.01.3(3)
at PIT5.00.003.06.01.0(1)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.42.717.05.02.7(3)
home starts5.44.476.05.71.3(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 4-4 vs PIT this season (8 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-4 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 4.6 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 3.6 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 4-4 vs CHC this season (8 games).
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Paul Skenes's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 8.6 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 7.0 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 5.00 (below avg)ERA 4.12
PIT
xERA 4.80 (below avg)ERA 3.28
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 1
- CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.00 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
Shota Imanaga K o5.5 (-115)
Imanaga has dominant history vs PIT specifically: 3gs, 0.50 ERA, 6.0 IP/gs, and 6.0 K/gs in matchup history. His K% is 25.0% and PIT vs LHP K% is 25.7% — an excellent matchup for Ks. While his recent ERA has crept up (4.68 over last 3), his K volume in those starts was 8K, 4K, 4K (avg 5.3), and two of those three included a 4K in only 4.2 IP and a 4K in only 5.1 IP. Given the elite PIT K rate and his historical dominance of this lineup, an adjusted expectation of ~6.5 Ks is above the 5.5 line. Outs prop at 17.5 (-156) signals the market expects a full outing, giving him plenty of innings to accumulate Ks.
ATL @ BAL✓7:05 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
ATL @ BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Elder R
xERA5.99 (poor)K%18.6 (avg)HH%41.9 (below avg)Barrel%18.6 (poor)ERA6.43IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs72BB%6.8
BAL vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%23.9 (avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
Brandon Young R
xERA3.61 (good)K%21.5 (avg)HH%45.6 (poor)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA3.79IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%6.3
ATL vs RHP
wRC+143 (elite)K%23.1 (avg)HH%43.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-102-1.5 (+162)O9.5 (-101)BAL-110+1.5 (-180)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+102+0.5 (-140)O5.5 (+112)BAL-125-0.5 (+108)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATLO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)BALO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Elder4.5 (-119 / +104)15.5 (-115 / -110)Brandon Young4.5 (+118 / -143)17.5 (+100 / -133)
Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs W6.07745122
W6.07745122Jul 9@ W4.06935234
W4.06935234Jun 27@ L4.06945155
L4.06945155Jun 21vs L6.095612288
L6.095612288Jun 14@ L4.075210266
L4.075210266Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@ W7.09575111
W7.09575111Jul 10vs W7.08558133
W7.08558133Jul 4@ W5.010258344
W5.010258344Jun 27vs L5.09387222
L5.09387222Jun 21@ W5.09555211
W5.09555211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL—
home starts6.32.376.05.71.7(3)
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 3.6 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.6 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 6.6 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 5.2 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 4.322d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 2.10 (elite)ERA 1.27
Weather · Hitter Friendly
80°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ESE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- ATL — Bryce Elder: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- BAL — Brandon Young: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATL — Bryce Elder: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- BAL — Brandon Young: 2026-07-04: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATL Team Total o4.5 (-102)
ATL's offense is elite (wRC+ 143 vs RHP in L12) and Brandon Young has a concerning HH% of 45.6% plus a skewed recent ERA (4 ER outing was flagged as an outlier, but 5.0 IP in each of his last 3 starts means he's not going deep). BAL bullpen xERA is 2.10 (excellent), which limits late-inning runs, but ATL is elite enough to score 4-5 off Young before the pen takes over. Young's history at home is 2.37 ERA in 3gs which is solid, but ATL's wRC+ 143 is the strongest offense in this slate vs RHP. BAL's offense vs struggling Bryce Elder (recent ERA 12.21!) will score plenty too, but ATL's team total over 4.5 at essentially -102 is great value for an elite offense vs an average pitcher with short outings.
ATH @ MIN✓7:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
ATH @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brady Basso
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIN
No data
Mike Paredes
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
ATH
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+125+1.5 (-150)O10.0 (-110)MIN-146-1.5 (+128)U10.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+132+0.5 (-106)O5.5 (-130)MIN-145-0.5 (-122)U5.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO4.5 (-111)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)MINO5.5 (+112)U5.5 (-135)O2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrady Basso——Mike Paredes—12.5 (+115 / -165)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 6.33 (poor)ERA 9.00
MIN
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 3.112d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
87°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph S
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- ATH — Brady Basso: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- MIN — Mike Paredes: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 6.33 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- MIN bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
ATH @ MIN o10.5 (-105)
Mason Barnett (ATH) is a disaster: xERA 10.48, ERA 11.25, HH% 59%, BB% 15%, short outings (4.0 IP total over 3 starts). ATH bullpen is catastrophic (xERA 6.33, ERA 9.00). Prielipp for MIN is struggling recently (recent ERA 5.03, recent outings showing 3ER and 4ER in 6 IP). Park is hitter-friendly (APF 109). MIN bullpen is excellent (xERA 2.95) which could cap MIN's scoring, but ATH's pitching staff is so poor that MIN should score freely early. Both pitching staffs are weak. The total is already high at 10.5, but given Barnett's extreme dysfunction (essentially a batting practice pitcher), the ATH bullpen collapse risk, and the hitter-friendly park, the over still has value at -105.
HOU @ CHW✓7:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
HOU @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Hunter Brown R
xERA5.95 (poor)K%15.5 (below avg)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA7.98IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs91BB%21.1
CHW vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%24.8 (below avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Sean Burke R
xERA1.95 (elite)K%35.2 (elite)HH%27.3 (elite)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA0.92IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%1.4
HOU vs RHP
wRC+130 (elite)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+102-1.5 (+168)O8.5 (-115)CHW-120-1.5 (+166)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+106+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-110)CHW-132-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UHOUO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-142)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)CHWO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UHunter Brown5.5 (-132 / +115)16.5 (-119 / -110)Sean Burke5.5 (+100 / -108)17.5 (-112 / -109)
Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs L4.29243644
L4.29243644Jul 10@ L6.09844533
L6.09844533Jul 4vs W4.08236467
W4.08236467Jun 28@ W6.010345223
W6.010345223Jun 22@ L3.08544211
L3.08544211Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@ W6.29852100
W6.29852100Jul 10vs W7.09894011
W7.09894011Jul 4@ W6.095117011
W6.095117011Jun 29@ W5.18984322
W5.18984322Jun 23vs W6.19066111
W6.19066111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.04.509.04.03.0(1)
at CHW6.04.509.04.03.0(1)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU3.219.694.08.01.0(1)
home starts5.73.167.05.32.0(3)
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU have won 4 straight.
- HOU are 2-3 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-2 in Hunter Brown's last 3 away starts.
- HOU average 4.8 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.0 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 5-0 in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 3-2 in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 6.0 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.4 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.36 (good)ERA 3.35
CHW
xERA 2.64 (elite)ERA 2.36
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- HOU — Hunter Brown: BB% 21% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CHW — Sean Burke: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-18 — may affect pitch count or availability
CHW F5 ML (-128)
Sean Burke is elite — xERA 1.95, recent ERA 2.09, averaging 8.3 K/start, 6.6 IP/gs. Hunter Brown faces CHW with xERA 5.95, recent ERA 6.23, BB% 21%, and genuinely poor command. CHW's bullpen is elite (xERA 2.97, ERA 2.17). HOU bullpen is solid (xERA 3.55) but the F5 is really about Burke vs Brown for 5 innings. Brown in his one visit to this park had 4.50 ERA in 6 IP — that was a good day; his general profile says he struggles. CHW wRC+ 99 vs RHP is average but enough to score off Brown. The -128 is at the acceptable pricing boundary and the compound edge here is real: elite home starter vs struggling visitor with command issues.
HOU Team Total o4.5 (+118)
Sean Burke faced HOU once and gave up 19.69 ERA equivalent (3.2 IP). HOU's offense is elite (wRC+ 130 vs RHP in L12, K% 17.9% — very low strikeout rate, puts ball in play). Burke's xERA is elite (1.95) and recent ERA is good (2.09), but his one appearance vs HOU was catastrophic, and HOU makes contact at a very high rate. Burke walks few batters (BB% 1.4%) but HOU's low K% means lots of balls in play against even a good pitcher. The HOU team total over 4.5 at +118 is excellent value — positive odds on an elite offense vs a pitcher who's shown vulnerability to them specifically.
COL @ MIL7:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
COL @ MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Feltner R
xERA6.27 (poor)K%23.1 (good)HH%40.5 (below avg)Barrel%19.1 (poor)ERA9.95IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs84BB%12.3
MIL vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%23.4 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Robert Gasser L
xERA4.76 (below avg)K%18.5 (avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA5.74IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs79BB%1.5
COL vs LHP
wRC+77 (poor)K%23.3 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+198+1.5 (-103)O9.0 (-105)MIL-230-1.5 (-106)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+165+0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-146)MIL-196-0.5 (-138)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCOLO3.5 (-108)U3.5 (-118)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)MILO5.5 (+100)U4.5 (+112)O2.5 (-140)U2.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Feltner4.5 (+126 / -157)15.5 (+112 / +113)Robert Gasser5.5 (+110 / -128)17.5 (-110 / -110)
Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs L2.17137488
L2.17137488Jul 9@ L4.19236444
L4.19236444Jul 3vs W6.08896023
W6.08896023Jun 28@ L6.08205012
L6.08205012Jun 22vs W6.09324422
W6.09324422Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs W5.08653011
W5.08653011Jul 12@ L3.05838077
L3.05838077Jul 7@ W7.29444122
W7.29444122Jun 29vs W5.29657133
W5.29657133Jun 21@ W6.09774122
W6.09774122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.01.505.52.02.0(2)
at MIL—
Robert Gasser
IPERAKHBB
vs COL—
home starts5.12.345.04.01.0(3)
Trends · COL
- COL are 1-3 vs MIL this season (4 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-3 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 5.6 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.0 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 3-1 vs COL this season (4 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in Robert Gasser's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 6.4 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 2.6 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.94 (below avg)ERA 4.74
MIL
xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 4.44
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 9 mph W
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- COL — Ryan Feltner: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- COL — Ryan Feltner: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- COL — Ryan Feltner: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- COL — Ryan Feltner: high-K outing 2026-07-03 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- MIL — Robert Gasser: 2026-07-12: 7 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 21) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIL — Robert Gasser: recent opponents high-K: STL 25%, PIT 26%, MIA 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
MIL ML at -230 is well above the -150 pricing ceiling; Feltner's xERA 6.27 with Barrel% 19% and BB% 12% is alarming despite a hot recent 3-start stretch — the xERA suggests regression is coming but the market has already priced COL as a heavy dog; no actionable line found within pricing rules.
CIN @ STL✓7:15 PM · Busch StadiumHot
CIN @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Hunter Greene R
xERA3.89 (avg)K%38.2 (elite)HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%10.8 (avg)ERA6.06IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%7.3
STL vs RHP
wRC+60 (poor)K%20.2 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Andre Pallante R
xERA3.05 (good)K%9.9 (poor)HH%30.5 (good)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA5.06IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs96BB%7.0
CIN vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%35.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN-104-1.5 (+158)O8.0 (-105)STL-110+1.5 (-180)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN-120-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (+102)STL+100+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-132)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCINO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+112)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)STLO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+106)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UHunter Greene6.5 (+102 / -117)17.5 (-158 / +120)Andre Pallante4.5 (+118 / -134)17.5 (-114 / -108)
Hunter Greene · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@ W6.09474033
W6.09474033Jul 10vs W7.093123100
W7.093123100Jul 4vs L3.18977488
L3.18977488Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@ L5.18835233
L5.18835233Jul 9vs L5.09728266
L5.09728266Jul 3@ W5.210225100
W5.210225100Jun 27vs L6.298411155
L6.298411155Jun 22vs W6.08526011
W6.08526011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.33.944.04.72.7(3)
home starts5.76.282.78.31.0(3)
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-6 vs STL this season (8 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-1 in Hunter Greene's last 3 starts.
- CIN are 1-0 in Hunter Greene's last 1 away starts.
- CIN average 6.0 runs/game in Hunter Greene's last 3 starts.
- CIN average 9.0 runs/game in Hunter Greene's last 1 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 6-2 vs CIN this season (8 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 2-3 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 6.4 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.2 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 2.89 (elite)ERA 5.22
STL
xERA 4.63 (below avg)ERA 4.792d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
92°F, Clear, Wind 1 mph SSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- CIN — Hunter Greene: 2026-07-04: 8 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 23) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — Andre Pallante: 2026-07-09: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Hunter Greene o6.5 Ks (+102)
Greene's K% is 38.2% — one of the highest in baseball. Recent ERA is skewed by one disaster outing (8 ER in 3.1 IP flagged as outlier). His other recent start was 12 Ks in 7 IP vs CHC. STL's offense has a K% of 20.2% vs RHP — average, but Greene's elite strikeout rate (38.2%!) means he generates Ks regardless of lineup. His recent avg is 8.7 K/start. The line is 6.5 — the adjusted expectation (calibrating slightly down from 8.7 for STL's contact ability) is still ~7.5-8.5 Ks. At +102 (positive odds!), getting Over 6.5 Ks from a 38.2% K-rate pitcher is clearly undervalued by the market, likely because the recent ERA disaster scared lines lower.
LAD @ NYM7:15 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
LAD @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA1.92 (elite)K%28.1 (elite)HH%28.3 (elite)Barrel%9.4 (avg)ERA3.27IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs102BB%7.3
NYM vs RHP
wRC+128 (above avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Nolan McLean R
xERA2.82 (elite)K%30.6 (elite)HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)ERA1.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs96BB%6.9
LAD vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%24.9 (below avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-154-1.5 (+116)O7.5 (+102)NYM+130+1.5 (-131)U7.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-152-0.5 (-102)O3.5 (-135)NYM+124+0.5 (-128)U3.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+112)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)NYMO2.5 (-154)U2.5 (+126)O1.5 (+100)U1.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UY. Yamamoto6.5 (+108 / -121)18.5 (+125 / -160)Nolan McLean6.5 (+120 / -142)17.5 (+100 / -118)
Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@ W9.010274022
W9.010274022Jul 11vs L6.010365466
L6.010365466Jul 4vs W7.0100103200
W7.0100103200Jun 27@ W6.08945222
W6.08945222Jun 20vs L6.010266233
L6.010266233Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@ W6.093102200
W6.093102200Jul 10vs L6.09875202
L6.09875202Jul 5@ W6.09655123
W6.09655123Jun 30@ W6.09175200
W6.09175200Jun 24vs L6.010497266
L6.010497266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM7.21.257.04.01.0(1)
at NYM—
Nolan McLean
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD7.01.298.02.02.0(1)
home starts5.34.507.35.02.7(3)
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 4-0 vs NYM this season (4 games).
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 5.6 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 7.0 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 0-4 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Nolan McLean's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 4.8 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 4.05 (avg)ERA 3.76
NYM
xERA 4.43 (avg)ERA 4.12
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph ESE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: 2026-07-11: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Yamamoto is elite (xERA 1.92) but ML is -154 — over the -150 threshold and triggers a warning; the total line (7.0-7.5) is already set low reflecting both aces; NYM offense (wRC+ 128) vs Yamamoto makes under risky; no clean bet within pricing rules.
SEA @ TEX✓7:15 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
SEA @ TEX✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.35 (good)K%22.4 (avg)HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%5.5 (good)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs97BB%5.3
TEX vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%23.9 (avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
Nathan Eovaldi R
xERA3.42 (good)K%30.4 (elite)HH%59.5 (poor)Barrel%14.3 (below avg)ERA6.00IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs88BB%7.2
SEA vs RHP
wRC+74 (poor)K%18.3 (above avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-110-1.5 (+155)O7.5 (-102)TEX-104+1.5 (-185)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-116-0.5 (+122)O3.5 (-146)TEX-108+0.5 (-160)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO3.5 (-122)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-135)U1.5 (+105)TEXO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryan Woo5.5 (-129 / +112)18.5 (+129 / -166)Nathan Eovaldi6.5 (+115 / -135)17.5 (-195 / +148)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs W6.09876223
W6.09876223Jul 7@ L5.08759134
L5.08759134Jun 30vs W6.110654122
W6.110654122Jun 24@ L4.08646255
L4.08646255Jun 18vs W7.08993100
W7.08993100Nathan Eovaldi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@ L4.08126244
L4.08126244Jul 9vs W6.099106234
W6.099106234Jul 2vs W5.08596133
W5.08596133Jun 26@ W7.09295100
W7.09295100Jun 21vs W6.09497133
W6.09497133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.01.505.74.71.7(3)
at TEX5.70.536.33.71.3(3)
Nathan Eovaldi
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.74.504.06.31.7(3)
home starts5.74.769.36.31.3(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 2-5 vs TEX this season (7 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 0-5 in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 4.2 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 5-2 vs SEA this season (7 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 4-1 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 4-1 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 6.2 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 5.0 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 3.41 (good)ERA 3.82
TEX
xERA 4.50 (avg)ERA 7.31
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: HH% 60% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TEX — Nathan Eovaldi: low-K outing 2026-07-19 (2 Ks vs avg 7.0) — stuff was flat that day
SEA F5 ML (-116)
Bryan Woo has dominant history at Globe Life Field — 0.53 ERA in 3 starts there, 1.50 ERA vs TEX overall. His recent ERA is 3.68 (acceptable), xERA 3.35. Eovaldi has HH% 60%, Barrel% 14%, and ERA 6.00 vs xERA 3.42 — meaning he's been somewhat unlucky but his profile is still very contact-heavy. SEA's offense is poor (wRC+ 74) but Woo's dominance at this specific park is exceptional. TEX bullpen is shaky (xERA 4.48, ERA 7.31). The F5 focuses on the Woo vs Eovaldi matchup where the historical advantage is large and the park-specific data is compelling. At -116, this is within acceptable pricing.
SEA @ TEX u7.5 (-115)
Bryan Woo has an outstanding history vs TEX (1.50 ERA, 3gs) and at Globe Life Field (0.53 ERA, 3gs) — this specific matchup and venue are strong signals. SEA's offense is cold (wRC+ 74 vs RHP — poor). Both bullpens are fine (SEA xERA 3.41, TEX xERA 4.50 — TEX pen is average but not a disaster). Eovaldi has a high HH%/Barrel% and poor history vs SEA (4.50 ERA, 3gs), but SEA's cold offense (wRC+ 74) means they won't capitalize fully. The under at 7.5 (-115) is reasonable: Woo dominates TEX historically, SEA's offense is cold so TEX's pen holds them, and the closed roof eliminates weather as a factor.
Nathan Eovaldi o6.5 Ks (+115)
Eovaldi's K% is 30.4% and he's averaged 9.0 K/start in his last 3 (9K, 9K, 9K). SEA's K% vs RHP is 18.3% — actually very low, meaning they make contact. However, Eovaldi's recent K totals (9, 9, 9) came vs DET (23.1%), TOR (14.8%), SDP (18.0%) — a mix including one low-K lineup, yet he still pumped 9 Ks each time. SEA at 18.3% is low but similar to TOR and Eovaldi handled them fine. The low-K outing flag is for one start where stuff was flat, but the consistent 9 Ks in all three starts is a strong pattern. Adjusted expectation: ~7-8 Ks. Line is 6.5 at +115 — excellent positive odds with adjusted expectation well above the line.