MLB Game Overviews

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Updated 17:33 UTC · Odds Updated 17:28 UTC

AI Picks · 10 Bets · Sep 2
Cody Bradford u5.5 Ks (+118)
ATH @ TEX · 2:36 PM ET
Bradford has struck out 4, 3 and 0 over his last 3 starts, a 2.3 per-start average off a 10.3 K% in that window, and his outs line of 17.5 points to five and a half or six innings — six strikeouts would demand better than a strikeout per inning from an arm getting fewer than half that. Oakland's 28.2 K% vs LHP over their last 6 (30.2 over their last 12) is the genuine argument for the over, and his 18.7 Whiff% over his last 3 running well ahead of his K% says some strikeouts are coming, but even doubling his recent rate leaves him a strikeout or two short of this number. He got 4 against this same Oakland lineup on Aug 16 this season over 4.0 innings. A plus price on the under of a number two full strikeouts above his expectation is the mispricing.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
Tomoyuki Sugano u15.5 Outs (-137)
BAL @ COL · 3:11 PM ET
Sugano has gone 5.0, 3.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 9 and 12 outs, every one of them under this number — while allowing 7, 9 and 10 hits and 6, 5 and 6 earned runs, a 12.75 ERA behind a 6.41 xERA across that window. At 4.0 IP per start he needs his longest outing in a month plus one extra out, and he is doing it at Coors with a 45.3 HH% allowed over his last 3. Baltimore's bat is the counter — 69 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, 85 over their last 12 — but a slumping lineup still runs up pitch counts against an arm surrendering nine hits per four innings, and Colorado's pen has already been extended for 8.3 innings over the last two days without buying him extra rope. Paying juice buys the shorter, safer number here; the market has him at barely better than a coin flip to do something he has not done in three tries.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
ARI Team Total u4.5 (-115)
PHI @ ARI · 3:41 PM ET
Arizona faces Andrew Painter's 2.94 xERA over his last 3 starts — he has worked 6.0 innings per start with a 28.6 Whiff% in that window — and then a Philadelphia bullpen carrying a 2.96 xERA and a 1.77 ERA over its last 12 games at normal rest. The Diamondbacks have scored 3.0 runs per game at home over their recent stretch and 2.6 across their last five starts from this rotation spot. Their 107 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, up from 92 over their last 12, is the case against, but that is a six-game heater against a lineup number, not a level, and their 20.4 K% over the same six games runs above what a 17.7 Whiff% supports. With a 9.5 total inflating both sides of this game, pricing Arizona at an even shot to reach five runs against this arm and this bullpen is too generous.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
Andrew Painter o15.5 Outs (+104)
PHI @ ARI · 3:41 PM ET
Painter has gone 5.0, 7.0 and 6.0 innings in his last 3 starts on 94, 103 and 94 pitches, averaging 6.0 IP/gs, so 16 outs is below his established workload. His 2.94 xERA over that window sits well under his 4.50 ERA, and he draws an Arizona lineup at a 95 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 that has produced 84 over their last 12 and 3.0 runs per game at home. Philadelphia's bullpen has a 2.59 xERA over its last 12 and could be summoned early in a close game, which is the argument for the under, but its stress is normal and nothing in his recent pitch counts suggests a short leash. The market has him failing to finish the sixth more than half the time despite three straight outings at or beyond that mark.
Found at 1:33 PM ET
Patrick Sandoval o5.5 Ks (+108)
SEA @ BOS · 4:11 PM ET
Seattle carries a 31.1 K% and a 32.3 Whiff% vs LHP over their last 6, backed by 28.6 and 28.3 over their last 12 — established, not a blip — and Sandoval has posted a 26.8 K% with a 25.6 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, producing 6, 6 and 7 strikeouts, all of them clearing this number. His outs line of 15.5 is short and his 12.7 BB% over his last 3 is why, so the length is the risk, but he got 7 in 5.1 innings at New York on Aug 28 and 6 in 5.2 on Aug 22, and against a lineup missing this many bats he does not need six innings to reach six punchouts. A plus price on a number he has hit in three straight, against the highest-strikeout lineup on the board, is more than the 46% the market is assigning it.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
J. Misiorowski u7.5 Ks (-105)
MIL @ CHC · 7:41 PM ET
Misiorowski has finished with exactly 6 strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts, and the Cubs are the wrong lineup to break that pattern: 13.2 K% and 17.6 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, down from 17.9 K% over their last 12, the most contact-oriented offense on the board right now. His outs line at 17.5 puts him at six innings, so eight strikeouts means beating his recent per-inning rate against a club that is putting everything in play. He did get 8 in each of his two 2026 meetings with Chicago, but that was before this contact surge and he has not reached 8 in any of his last three outings. A line at 7.5 asks for a career-type night from an arm that has been steady at six.
Found at 8:18 AM ET
KCR ML (-110)
MIA @ KCR · 7:41 PM ET
Kansas City's lineup is at 120 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 133 over their last 12 — established, not a streak — and it faces Eury Perez, who has walked 20.3% of hitters over his last 3 starts and averaged 4.7 IP/gs, exiting after 74 pitches and 3.0 innings his last time out. Miami brings a 51 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 (71 over their last 12) into a matchup with Noah Cameron, who owns a 2.32 xERA and 6.7 IP/gs across his last 3 and has allowed one earned run in his last 20 innings. Perez's xERA of 4.05 says he is better than the walk rate suggests and Miami's bullpen has a 3.23 xERA over its last 12, which keeps this from being a blowout play — but a pick'em price on the side with both the better arm and by far the better lineup is the error, with Kansas City 8-2 at home over their last 10.
Found at 8:18 AM ET
MIN Team Total o4.5 (+118)
DET @ MIN · 7:41 PM ET
Minnesota is at 166 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 13.4 K%, and the 131 over their last 12 confirms it rather than contradicting it — this is the most productive lineup on the slate against right-handed pitching. Drew Anderson has averaged 4.9 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 12.7 BB% and walked 5 in 4.2 innings his last time out, which hands three-plus innings to a Detroit bullpen carrying a 4.77 xERA and 7.13 ERA over its last 12. Anderson's 4.08 xERA over that window is better than his walk rate implies and Minnesota has been held down by good arms recently, but Target Field at 87°F with an APF of 107 and a home average of 6.0 runs in their last three starts behind this rotation slot supports the number. Plus money on five runs from a lineup this hot against a short starter and a leaking bullpen is the mispricing.
Found at 8:18 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Casey Mize u4.5 Ks (-111)
SDP @ CIN · 12:41 PM ET
Mize has struck out 3, 0 and 1 across his last 3 starts, an average of 1.3 per outing behind a 6.8 K% and a 9.3 Whiff% over that same window — bat-missing is essentially absent from his profile right now. He is averaging 4.6 IP per start over his last 3 and the posted outs line of 15.5 says the market expects roughly five innings, so reaching five strikeouts would require him to more than triple his current rate in about nineteen batters. Cincinnati's 23.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is the one thing pointing the other way, and it is nowhere near enough to bridge a gap that size. The market is pricing this line as a coin flip when Mize's realistic outcome is two or three strikeouts.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
Grant Holmes u4.5 Ks (-156)
ATL @ WSN · 1:06 PM ET
Holmes has struck out exactly 3 in each of his last 3 starts, a 13.9 K% over that window with a 3.1 K-BB%, and he is averaging 4.9 innings per outing with the posted outs line at 15.5 — five strikeouts asks for close to a strikeout an inning from an arm getting three every time out. Washington's 20.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is ordinary rather than a soft spot, and his 28.2 Whiff% over his last 3 running well above his K% is the real argument against, as is the 10-strikeout game he had against this club in May of this season; his most recent meeting with them, 34 days ago, produced 4 strikeouts over 4.2 innings, which is the more current read. Laying this price buys a number his last three outings have not come within two strikeouts of, and the market has it priced as though five is a normal night for him.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
SDP @ CIN
12:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Casey Mize R
xERA3.71 (good)ERA3.95 (avg)K%6.8 (poor)Whiff%9.3 (poor)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs57BB%5.1 (good)
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+139 (elite)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
B. Williamson L
xERA5.17 (below)ERA7.11 (poor)K%14.8 (below)Whiff%22.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.0 (below)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs64BB%18.0 (poor)
SDP vs LHP
L6
wRC+91 (below)K%19.7 (above)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%41.3 (above)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (below)HH%39.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 2.36 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 4.73 (below)ERA 5.89 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-104-1.5 (+158)O14.5 (+102)CIN+100-1.5 (+182)U14.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-130-0.5 (-102)O5.5 (+100)CIN+114+0.5 (-128)U5.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP5.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (-105/-125)CIN4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize4.5 (-110 / -111)15.5 (+104 / -120)B. Williamson3.5 (+109 / -138)13.5 (-104 / -128)
Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ CINL2.04824144
Aug 28 '26@ TBRL5.07716127
Aug 22 '26vs MINW2.24704144
Aug 16 '26@ CLEW6.08633100
Aug 10 '26vs MILW6.08365222
B. Williamson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs SDPW3.04816133
Apr 29 '26vs COLL3.05844444
Apr 22 '26@ TBRL4.18737355
Apr 17 '26@ MINW5.19323411
Apr 11 '26vs LAAW4.09333633
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN2.018.00poor2.04.01.0(1)
at CIN2.018.00poor2.04.01.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ CINL2.04824144
B. Williamson
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP3.09.00poor1.06.01.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs SDPW3.04816133
home starts3.39.00poor2.74.33.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs SDPW3.04816133
Apr 29 '26vs COLL3.05844444
Apr 11 '26vs LAAW4.09333633
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph SSW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • SDP — Casey Mize: last start: 77 pitches over 5.0 IP
  • SDP — Casey Mize: 2026-08-22: 4 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
  • SDP — Casey Mize: recent opponents low-K: MIN 13%, TBR 14%
  • CIN — B. Williamson: 126 days since last start (2026-04-29) news ↗
  • CIN — B. Williamson: last start: 58 pitches over 3.0 IP
Casey Mize u4.5 Ks (-111)
Mize has struck out 3, 0 and 1 across his last 3 starts, an average of 1.3 per outing behind a 6.8 K% and a 9.3 Whiff% over that same window — bat-missing is essentially absent from his profile right now. He is averaging 4.6 IP per start over his last 3 and the posted outs line of 15.5 says the market expects roughly five innings, so reaching five strikeouts would require him to more than triple his current rate in about nineteen batters. Cincinnati's 23.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is the one thing pointing the other way, and it is nowhere near enough to bridge a gap that size. The market is pricing this line as a coin flip when Mize's realistic outcome is two or three strikeouts.
ATL @ WSN
1:05 PM · Nationals ParkRainy, Hot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Grant Holmes R
xERA4.13 (avg)ERA5.52 (poor)K%13.9 (below)Whiff%28.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%51.0 (poor)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs65BB%10.8 (below)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+134 (elite)K%20.7 (avg)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%33.1 (below)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%31.6 (below)
Brad Lord RBULLPEN GAME
No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers
xERA2.45 (elite)ERA1.23 (elite)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%14.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%5.9 (elite)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs33BB%10.7 (below)
ATL all hands
L6
wRC+99 (avg)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%24.9 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.03 (good)ERA 2.35 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 4.10 (avg)ERA 6.45 (poor)2d stress Stressed (11.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-138-1.5 (+126)O7.5 (+105)WSN+112+1.5 (-160)U7.5 (-121)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-140-0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-146)WSN+112+0.5 (-128)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL4.5 (-132/+110)2.5 (-105/-125)WSN3.5 (-135/+106)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGrant Holmes4.5 (+130 / -156)15.5 (+103 / -122)Brad Lord
Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ WSNL2.01810000
Aug 28 '26vs COLW5.08438133
Aug 20 '26@ CHWW6.09431300
Aug 15 '26vs ARIL3.26536366
Aug 9 '26@ NYYW6.07723200
Brad Lord · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs ATLL2.02851000
Aug 29 '26vs MIAW2.1*2742111
Aug 25 '26vs COLL2.1*4420100
Aug 21 '26@ MIAL2.23110100
Aug 15 '26@ NYML0.24411422
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN3.74.02avg5.03.71.3(3)
at WSN2.00.00elite1.00.00.0(1)
all 3 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ WSNL2.01810000
Jul 30 '26vs WSNW4.26945233
May 23 '26vs WSNL5.087106222
Brad Lord
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL2.00.00elite5.01.00.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs ATLL2.02851000
home starts2.00.00elite5.01.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs ATLL2.02851000
Weather · Rainy, Hot
91°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 3 mph ENE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (1%)
Flags · 13
  • BULLPEN GAME: WSN have no conventional starter — Brad Lord is listed (last 5 outings avg 2.1 IP (longest 2.7)). Expect a parade of relievers; ATL's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
  • WSN — Brad Lord: small sample: 7.1 IP over 3 starts
  • ATL — Grant Holmes: Whiff% 28.2 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 13.9 shows
  • WSN — Brad Lord: K% 25.0 (last 3 starts) runs well above what Whiff% 14.8 supports
  • WSN bullpen stressed (11.0 IP over 2g)
  • ATL — Grant Holmes: 2026-08-15: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.70 ERA equivalent
  • WSN — Brad Lord: 12 days since last start (2026-08-21) news ↗
  • WSN — Brad Lord: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-29, 2026-08-25
  • WSN — Brad Lord: last start: 31 pitches over 2.2 IP
  • WSN — Brad Lord: 2026-08-15: 2 ER in 0.2 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.05 ERA equivalent
  • WSN — Brad Lord: recent opponents high-K: NYM 27%, MIA 26%
  • WEATHER: rain risk 1% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
Grant Holmes u4.5 Ks (-156)
Holmes has struck out exactly 3 in each of his last 3 starts, a 13.9 K% over that window with a 3.1 K-BB%, and he is averaging 4.9 innings per outing with the posted outs line at 15.5 — five strikeouts asks for close to a strikeout an inning from an arm getting three every time out. Washington's 20.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is ordinary rather than a soft spot, and his 28.2 Whiff% over his last 3 running well above his K% is the real argument against, as is the 10-strikeout game he had against this club in May of this season; his most recent meeting with them, 34 days ago, produced 4 strikeouts over 4.2 innings, which is the more current read. Laying this price buys a number his last three outings have not come within two strikeouts of, and the market has it priced as though five is a normal night for him.
ATH @ TEX
2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jacob Lopez L
xERA3.15 (good)ERA2.12 (elite)K%30.4 (elite)Whiff%30.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs95BB%8.7 (avg)
TEX vs LHP
L6
wRC+157 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%26.0 (below)HH%42.6 (above)
L12
wRC+150 (elite)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%46.0 (elite)
Cody Bradford L
xERA4.63 (below)ERA4.20 (avg)K%10.3 (poor)Whiff%18.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.9 (avg)Barrel%12.1 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs87BB%4.4 (elite)
ATH vs LHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+88 (below)K%27.1 (below)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 2.94 (elite)ERA 3.73 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 5.18 (below)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+137+1.5 (-156)O7.5 (-117)TEX-162-1.5 (+130)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+130+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (+106)TEX-152-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH3.5 (+100/-122)1.5 (-115/-115)TEX4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJacob Lopez5.5 (+105 / -130)16.5 (+102 / -121)Cody Bradford4.5 (+125 / -148)17.5 (+101 / -134)
Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs BALL5.010063312
Aug 22 '26@ HOUW6.09193111
Aug 16 '26vs TEXW6.09365222
Aug 10 '26vs TBRL7.09355122
Aug 5 '26@ CINL5.08794122
Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@ MILL5.210009233
Aug 22 '26vs LAAL5.18037022
Aug 16 '26@ ATHL4.08148122
Aug 11 '26@ LAAL7.07515133
Aug 5 '26vs SFGW4.17055200
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.53.27good5.54.03.0(2)
at TEX3.610.00poor5.05.03.5(2)
all 2 this season · last met 17 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16 '26vs TEXW6.09365222
Apr 16 '26vs TEXL5.08553422
Jul 21 '25@ TEXL5.09364355
Apr 29 '25@ TEXL2.28446433
Cody Bradford
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH4.04.50below4.08.01.0(1)
this season · last met 17 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16 '26@ ATHL4.08148122
home starts4.61.96elite4.06.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs LAAL5.18037022
Aug 5 '26vs SFGW4.17055200
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
  • TEX — Cody Bradford: Whiff% 18.7 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.3 shows
  • ATH bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g)
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
Cody Bradford u5.5 Ks (+118)
Bradford has struck out 4, 3 and 0 over his last 3 starts, a 2.3 per-start average off a 10.3 K% in that window, and his outs line of 17.5 points to five and a half or six innings — six strikeouts would demand better than a strikeout per inning from an arm getting fewer than half that. Oakland's 28.2 K% vs LHP over their last 6 (30.2 over their last 12) is the genuine argument for the over, and his 18.7 Whiff% over his last 3 running well ahead of his K% says some strikeouts are coming, but even doubling his recent rate leaves him a strikeout or two short of this number. He got 4 against this same Oakland lineup on Aug 16 this season over 4.0 innings. A plus price on the under of a number two full strikeouts above his expectation is the mispricing.
BAL @ COL
3:10 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Trevor Rogers L
xERA3.32 (good)ERA5.50 (poor)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.5 (good)Barrel%7.4 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs96BB%4.0 (elite)
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+76 (poor)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%39.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA6.41 (poor)ERA12.75 (poor)K%13.6 (below)Whiff%16.0 (below)
More Stats
HH%45.3 (poor)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs8.7PC/gs91BB%4.5 (elite)
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+40 (poor)K%28.1 (poor)Whiff%27.8 (below)HH%36.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+79 (poor)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%39.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.65 (elite)ERA 1.13 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
COL
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 3.78 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-162-1.5 (-106)O11.5 (+100)COL+138+1.5 (-110)U11.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-152-0.5 (-115)O5.5 (-135)COL+122+0.5 (-113)U5.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL6.5 (+104/-130)2.5 (-154/+120)COL4.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers5.5 (+115 / -130)17.5 (-132 / +104)Tomoyuki Sugano3.5 (-102 / -113)15.5 (+120 / -141)
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ STLL5.08677166
Aug 21 '26vs TBRW7.010366133
Aug 16 '26@ TBRW6.09867122
Aug 10 '26@ MINL4.07944222
Aug 5 '26vs LAAW6.09393022
Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@ ATLL4.091410166
Aug 23 '26vs CLEL3.09229155
Aug 17 '26vs LADL5.08937167
Aug 11 '26@ ARIW6.09356022
Aug 5 '26vs TBRL5.08535233
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs COL7.00.00elite5.01.01.0(1)
at COL
last season · last met 403 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26 '25vs COLW7.09651100
Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL
home starts4.39.69poor2.77.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23 '26vs CLEL3.09229155
Aug 17 '26vs LADL5.08937167
Aug 5 '26vs TBRL5.08535233
Weather · Hitter Friendly
90°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 4 mph ESE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • COL bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
  • BAL — Trevor Rogers: 2026-08-27: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.43 ERA equivalent
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115)
Tomoyuki Sugano u15.5 Outs (-137)
Sugano has gone 5.0, 3.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 9 and 12 outs, every one of them under this number — while allowing 7, 9 and 10 hits and 6, 5 and 6 earned runs, a 12.75 ERA behind a 6.41 xERA across that window. At 4.0 IP per start he needs his longest outing in a month plus one extra out, and he is doing it at Coors with a 45.3 HH% allowed over his last 3. Baltimore's bat is the counter — 69 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, 85 over their last 12 — but a slumping lineup still runs up pitch counts against an arm surrendering nine hits per four innings, and Colorado's pen has already been extended for 8.3 innings over the last two days without buying him extra rope. Paying juice buys the shorter, safer number here; the market has him at barely better than a coin flip to do something he has not done in three tries.
PHI @ ARI
3:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Andrew Painter R
xERA2.94 (elite)ERA4.50 (below)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%40.8 (below)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%8.3 (avg)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%18.0 (above)HH%29.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%16.8 (elite)HH%31.1 (below)
Jose Cabrera RBULK
Opener: Taylor Clarke (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA5.54 (poor)ERA6.75 (poor)K%15.5 (below)Whiff%12.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs69BB%10.3 (below)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+94 (below)K%17.3 (above)Whiff%16.9 (elite)HH%31.5 (below)
L12
wRC+99 (avg)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%19.7 (above)HH%32.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 2.59 (elite)ERA 1.85 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 4.84 (below)ERA 4.09 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-130-1.5 (+128)O8.5 (-115)ARI+112+1.5 (-145)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-128-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-118)ARI+110+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (+100/-115)2.5 (+105/-135)ARI3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Painter4.5 (+122 / +126)15.5 (+104 / -134)Jose Cabrera
Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@ LAAW6.09462333
Aug 22 '26vs STLW7.010385011
Aug 16 '26@ MINW5.09426355
Aug 10 '26@ STLW5.19362322
Aug 5 '26vs WSNL4.06343111
Jose Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ SFGL4.17043122
Jul 8 '26@ SDPL4.17424244
Jul 3 '26vs MILL3.16336333
Jun 27 '26@ TBRL5.08047244
Jun 21 '26vs MINL5.06233000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jose Cabrera
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI
home starts4.03.33good3.04.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3 '26vs MILL3.16336333
Jun 21 '26vs MINL5.06233000
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
  • OPENER: ARI start Taylor Clarke (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.1 IP (longest 1.7)), with Jose Cabrera (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — PHI's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
  • PHI — Andrew Painter: Whiff% 28.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 22.2 shows
  • PHI — Andrew Painter: 2026-08-16: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.89 ERA equivalent
  • PHI — Andrew Painter: low-K outing 2026-08-16 (2 Ks vs avg 5.3 over his last 3)
  • ARI — Jose Cabrera: last start: 70 pitches over 4.1 IP
ARI Team Total u4.5 (-115)
Arizona faces Andrew Painter's 2.94 xERA over his last 3 starts — he has worked 6.0 innings per start with a 28.6 Whiff% in that window — and then a Philadelphia bullpen carrying a 2.96 xERA and a 1.77 ERA over its last 12 games at normal rest. The Diamondbacks have scored 3.0 runs per game at home over their recent stretch and 2.6 across their last five starts from this rotation spot. Their 107 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, up from 92 over their last 12, is the case against, but that is a six-game heater against a lineup number, not a level, and their 20.4 K% over the same six games runs above what a 17.7 Whiff% supports. With a 9.5 total inflating both sides of this game, pricing Arizona at an even shot to reach five runs against this arm and this bullpen is too generous.
Andrew Painter o15.5 Outs (+104)
Painter has gone 5.0, 7.0 and 6.0 innings in his last 3 starts on 94, 103 and 94 pitches, averaging 6.0 IP/gs, so 16 outs is below his established workload. His 2.94 xERA over that window sits well under his 4.50 ERA, and he draws an Arizona lineup at a 95 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 that has produced 84 over their last 12 and 3.0 runs per game at home. Philadelphia's bullpen has a 2.59 xERA over its last 12 and could be summoned early in a close game, which is the argument for the under, but its stress is normal and nothing in his recent pitch counts suggests a short leash. The market has him failing to finish the sixth more than half the time despite three straight outings at or beyond that mark.
SEA @ BOS
4:10 PM · Fenway ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bryce Miller R
xERA4.99 (below)ERA9.60 (poor)K%18.6 (avg)Whiff%22.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below)Barrel%10.6 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%14.3 (poor)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (avg)HH%36.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%33.6 (below)
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA5.28 (poor)ERA6.00 (poor)K%26.8 (good)Whiff%25.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.9 (below)Barrel%14.0 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%12.7 (below)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+59 (poor)K%31.2 (poor)Whiff%30.5 (poor)HH%36.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+81 (below)K%28.4 (poor)Whiff%27.8 (below)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.70 (below)ERA 6.70 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 4.93 (below)2d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+119+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-105)BOS-138-1.5 (+150)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+106+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-110)BOS-130-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)BOS4.5 (+112/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Miller4.5 (+110 / -130)15.5 (-108 / -121)Patrick Sandoval5.5 (+124 / -138)16.5 (+101 / +110)
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23 '26vs CHCL4.110452766
Aug 18 '26@ MILL4.29237256
Aug 12 '26@ NYYL6.08958155
Aug 6 '26vs DETL5.09355244
Jul 31 '26vs MINL5.18733222
Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@ NYYL5.19673411
Aug 22 '26vs SFGW5.29365222
Aug 16 '26@ PITL4.08969377
Aug 11 '26@ TORL6.08448324
Aug 4 '26vs CHWW5.08956422
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryce Miller
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS4.64.89below5.54.02.0(2)
at BOS4.28.57poor4.05.04.0(1)
1 this season, 1 last season · last met 75 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19 '26vs BOSL5.06673011
Apr 22 '25@ BOSL4.210045444
Patrick Sandoval
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA
home starts4.82.50elite4.75.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs SFGW5.29365222
Aug 4 '26vs CHWW5.08956422
Jul 24 '26vs TORW4.28435200
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph ENE
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • BOS bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g)
  • SEA — Bryce Miller: last start: 104 pitches over 4.1 IP
  • BOS — Patrick Sandoval: 2026-08-16: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.61 ERA equivalent
Patrick Sandoval o5.5 Ks (+108)
Seattle carries a 31.1 K% and a 32.3 Whiff% vs LHP over their last 6, backed by 28.6 and 28.3 over their last 12 — established, not a blip — and Sandoval has posted a 26.8 K% with a 25.6 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, producing 6, 6 and 7 strikeouts, all of them clearing this number. His outs line of 15.5 is short and his 12.7 BB% over his last 3 is why, so the length is the risk, but he got 7 in 5.1 innings at New York on Aug 28 and 6 in 5.2 on Aug 22, and against a lineup missing this many bats he does not need six innings to reach six punchouts. A plus price on a number he has hit in three straight, against the highest-strikeout lineup on the board, is more than the 46% the market is assigning it.
TOR @ CLE
6:40 PM · Progressive FieldHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.13 (elite)ERA1.89 (elite)K%36.1 (elite)Whiff%28.7 (elite)
More Stats
HH%27.0 (elite)Barrel%8.1 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs102BB%12.5 (below)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+121 (above)K%19.6 (above)Whiff%14.8 (elite)HH%32.0 (below)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%15.1 (elite)HH%37.5 (avg)
Joey Cantillo L
xERA3.41 (good)ERA2.16 (elite)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%28.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs89BB%20.9 (poor)
TOR vs LHP
L6
wRC+116 (above)K%12.3 (elite)Whiff%16.7 (elite)HH%32.6 (below)
L12
wRC+126 (above)K%18.5 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%34.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.38 (good)ERA 4.17 (avg)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.13 (elite)ERA 2.06 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-130-1.5 (+140)O7.5 (+100)CLE+112+1.5 (-163)U7.0 (+103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-150-0.5 (+100)O3.5 (-130)CLE+130+0.5 (-130)U3.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-154/+120)CLE3.5 (+110/-140)1.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDylan Cease6.5 (+102 / -120)17.5 (-146 / +115)Joey Cantillo4.5 (-113 / -110)15.5 (+129 / -162)
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs SEAW6.09284111
Aug 22 '26@ NYYW6.211182511
Aug 16 '26vs NYYL6.1104102322
Aug 11 '26vs BOSW5.010475433
Aug 6 '26@ CHCL7.0104102100
Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@ LAAW6.09212723
Aug 21 '26@ COLW4.28954411
Aug 15 '26vs SDPW6.08771311
Aug 9 '26@ CHWL1.03133011
Aug 4 '26vs NYML5.08157225
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.11.48elite7.04.01.0(1)
at CLE
last season · last met 518 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 2 '25vs CLEW6.19274111
Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.01.80elite4.06.01.0(1)
this season · last met 130 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 25 '26@ TORL5.08946113
home starts5.33.94avg6.35.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26vs SDPW6.08771311
Aug 4 '26vs NYML5.08157225
Jul 19 '26vs PITL5.08077344
Weather · Hot
95°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 11 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • CLE — Joey Cantillo: Whiff% 28.1 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 19.4 shows
  • TOR bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
  • CLE bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
AI Analysis
The total sits at 7.0-7.5 with two effective arms and two lineups hitting well — Cleveland at a 121 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, Toronto at 116 vs LHP — so neither side of it separates from the price, and Toronto at -130 already reflects the Cease advantage while their bullpen carries 7.0 innings of work from one day ago. Cease's 6.5 strikeout line looks reachable off 10, 8 and 8 in his last 3, but Cleveland is putting the ball in play at a 14.8% whiff rate over their last 6, and his outs line at 17.5 is priced right at the 6.3 IP/gs he actually goes. Cantillo's numbers pull apart — a 20.9% walk rate over his last 3 including 7 walks last time out — and with Cleveland's bullpen fresh at 2.0 innings over one day, both his 4.5 strikeout line and his 15.5 outs line are fairly priced for an outing that could end anywhere between the fifth and the seventh.
NYM @ TBR
6:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Justin Hagenman R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%14.5 (elite)Whiff%17.8 (elite)HH%33.9 (below)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%32.7 (below)
Griffin Jax R
xERA1.55 (elite)ERA1.62 (elite)K%34.3 (elite)Whiff%30.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%6.0 (good)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+55 (poor)K%27.1 (below)Whiff%28.0 (poor)HH%35.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 3.64 (good)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 2.66 (elite)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+153+1.5 (-143)O8.0 (-110)TBR-178-1.5 (+125)U8.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+140+0.5 (-113)O4.5 (-113)TBR-168-0.5 (-115)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (+100/-128)1.5 (-120/-110)TBR4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJustin Hagenman2.5 (-166 / +130)13.5 (-114 / -116)Griffin Jax4.5 (-106 / -110)11.5 (-126 / -105)
Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2 '26vs CHWL5.08284013
Jul 28 '26vs TEXL5.293105312
Jul 22 '26@ TORW6.08353111
Jul 17 '26@ BOSL5.08568177
Jul 11 '26vs SEAW5.06934311
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM
home starts5.11.78elite7.04.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2 '26vs CHWL5.08284013
Jul 28 '26vs TEXL5.293105312
Jul 11 '26vs SEAW5.06934311
Weather · Dome
Flags · 2
  • NYM — Justin Hagenman: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • TBR — Griffin Jax: 31 days since last start (2026-08-02) news ↗
AI Analysis
Rain risk sits at 43%, which takes any pitcher over off the table, and the game lines offer nothing anyway: Tampa Bay at -178 is priced for facing a starter with no track record, and the 8.0 total splits a Mets lineup at a 55 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 against a Rays lineup at 113. Hagenman is making his first start of the season with no numbers available, so his 2.5 strikeout and 13.5 outs lines are unbettable. Jax has not pitched in 31 days and his outs line has been cut to 11.5 to reflect that, while his 4.5 strikeout line already assumes the short outing that layoff implies.
SFG @ PIT
6:40 PM · PNC ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Landen Roupp R
xERA5.58 (poor)ERA4.50 (below)K%13.7 (below)Whiff%20.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%11.3 (below)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%12.3 (below)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+106 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
Bubba Chandler R
xERA3.60 (good)ERA4.30 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%15.6 (below)
More Stats
HH%47.5 (poor)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%9.8 (avg)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%37.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+143 (elite)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 4.09 (avg)2d stress Elevated (10.7 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 2.82 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+129+1.5 (-164)O8.5 (-120)PIT-150-1.5 (+140)U8.5 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+120+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-108)PIT-140-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG3.5 (-135/+106)1.5 (-145/+114)PIT4.5 (-104/-115)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULanden Roupp4.5 (-148 / +121)15.5 (+105 / -122)Bubba Chandler4.5 (+114 / -133)15.5 (+104 / -138)
Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs ARIW5.09534211
Aug 20 '26@ CLEL5.19025434
Aug 14 '26vs COLL5.29155344
Aug 8 '26vs DETL5.18532511
Aug 2 '26@ SDPL4.29966455
Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@ SDPL5.28334212
Aug 21 '26@ LADL4.08864244
Aug 14 '26vs BOSW5.08754222
Aug 8 '26vs NYMW6.08553100
Aug 3 '26@ MILW5.29654423
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT4.02.25elite8.03.03.0(1)
at PIT
this season · last met 116 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 9 '26vs PITL4.09483311
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.03.60good3.05.01.0(1)
this season · last met 115 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 10 '26@ SFGL5.07735122
home starts5.03.00good4.34.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14 '26vs BOSW5.08754222
Aug 8 '26vs NYMW6.08553100
Jul 28 '26vs ARIL4.09137135
Weather · Hot
93°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph SW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • SFG bullpen elevated (10.7 IP over 2g)
  • PIT bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
  • PIT — Bubba Chandler: 2026-08-21: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.67 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
San Francisco has the better bats — a 130 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, 143 over their last 12 — against Chandler's 47.5% hard-hit rate, but Pittsburgh at -150 and the 8.5 total both sit where that read lands, and both bullpens are carrying elevated workloads that cut the same direction. Roupp's 4.5 strikeout line at -148 asks for five from an arm averaging 3.3 per start on a 13.7% K rate over his last 3, and his 15.5 outs line matches the 5.3 IP/gs he has been going. Chandler's 15.6% whiff rate over his last 3 undercuts his 4.5 strikeout line in both directions, and at 4.9 IP/gs his 15.5 outs number is already exactly where he lands.
MIL @ CHC
7:40 PM · Wrigley FieldHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
J. Misiorowski R
xERA2.48 (elite)ERA1.50 (elite)K%26.5 (good)Whiff%32.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%28.9 (elite)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs94BB%7.3 (avg)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+196 (elite)K%13.2 (elite)Whiff%17.6 (elite)HH%34.3 (below)
L12
wRC+163 (elite)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%35.9 (avg)
David Peterson L
xERA3.65 (good)ERA2.92 (elite)K%28.3 (elite)Whiff%31.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.7 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs69BB%11.3 (below)
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+140 (elite)K%9.7 (elite)Whiff%13.5 (elite)HH%38.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%14.9 (elite)Whiff%18.1 (above)HH%33.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 2.96 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 5.88 (poor)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-162-1.5 (+105)O8.5 (+100)CHC+136+1.5 (-125)U8.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-188-0.5 (-128)O4.5 (+100)CHC+150+0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (-111/-110)2.5 (+105/-135)CHC3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ. Misiorowski7.5 (-126 / +100)17.5 (-131 / +104)David Peterson4.5 (+104 / -130)15.5 (-103 / -122)
J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ NYMW6.08962222
Aug 21 '26vs ATLW6.09664200
Aug 15 '26@ LADW6.09865111
Aug 9 '26vs MINW6.09494133
Aug 2 '26@ LAAL7.083102122
David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs CINL5.08866322
Aug 22 '26@ SEAL6.09884222
Aug 17 '26vs CHWW1.1*2210100
Aug 12 '26@ WSNW5.09069334
Aug 6 '26vs TORW5.08937311
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.32.25elite7.02.02.7(3)
at CHC5.02.70elite6.52.02.0(2)
2 this season, 1 last season · last met 68 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26 '26vs CHCW6.010782411
May 19 '26@ CHCW6.07483100
Aug 20 '25@ CHCL4.07851333
David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.72.37elite3.05.01.5(2)
1 this season, 1 last season · last met 67 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27 '26@ MILW5.26925022
Jul 3 '25vs MILW6.210345312
home starts5.02.70elite4.56.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs CINL5.08866322
Aug 6 '26vs TORW5.08937311
Weather · Hot
92°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph SW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • MIL bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
  • CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-17
  • CHC — David Peterson: recent opponents high-K: SEA 31%, CIN 26%
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
J. Misiorowski u7.5 Ks (-105)
Misiorowski has finished with exactly 6 strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts, and the Cubs are the wrong lineup to break that pattern: 13.2 K% and 17.6 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, down from 17.9 K% over their last 12, the most contact-oriented offense on the board right now. His outs line at 17.5 puts him at six innings, so eight strikeouts means beating his recent per-inning rate against a club that is putting everything in play. He did get 8 in each of his two 2026 meetings with Chicago, but that was before this contact surge and he has not reached 8 in any of his last three outings. A line at 7.5 asks for a career-type night from an arm that has been steady at six.
DET @ MIN
7:40 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Drew Anderson R
xERA4.08 (avg)ERA3.68 (good)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs79BB%12.7 (below)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+166 (elite)K%13.4 (elite)Whiff%17.0 (elite)HH%39.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+131 (elite)K%14.0 (elite)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%38.1 (avg)
Dean Kremer R
xERA4.63 (below)ERA6.75 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%30.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%40.9 (below)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%12.1 (below)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+8 (poor)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%40.5 (above)
L12
wRC+45 (poor)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%20.9 (above)HH%39.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 4.77 (below)ERA 7.13 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
MIN
xERA 4.57 (below)ERA 6.27 (poor)2d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-104-1.5 (+158)O9.0 (+102)MIN-112+1.5 (-185)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-108+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-130)MIN-116-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET4.5 (+112/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)MIN4.5 (+120/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDrew Anderson4.5 (+126 / -160)15.5 (+120 / +122)Dean Kremer4.5 (+105 / -130)15.5 (-110 / -111)
Drew Anderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs LADL4.28954500
Aug 22 '26@ KCRL5.07545133
Aug 16 '26vs CHWL5.07454233
Aug 11 '26vs CLEW4.07044211
Aug 5 '26@ SEAL3.24203100
Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs CHWL4.09037356
Aug 22 '26@ SDPL5.110153322
Aug 16 '26vs PHIL5.18965244
Aug 10 '26vs BALW7.08971111
Aug 5 '26@ KCRL5.08823211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs DET4.612.72poor3.56.03.5(2)
1 this season, 1 last season · last met 36 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28 '26@ DETL4.08148388
Apr 27 '25@ DETL5.29734455
home starts5.45.59poor5.34.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs CHWL4.09037356
Aug 16 '26vs PHIL5.18965244
Aug 10 '26vs BALW7.08971111
Weather · Hitter Friendly
87°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph SSE
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • MIN — Dean Kremer: Whiff% 30.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 21.2 shows
  • MIN bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g)
  • DET — Drew Anderson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-02
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
MIN Team Total o4.5 (+118)
Minnesota is at 166 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 13.4 K%, and the 131 over their last 12 confirms it rather than contradicting it — this is the most productive lineup on the slate against right-handed pitching. Drew Anderson has averaged 4.9 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 12.7 BB% and walked 5 in 4.2 innings his last time out, which hands three-plus innings to a Detroit bullpen carrying a 4.77 xERA and 7.13 ERA over its last 12. Anderson's 4.08 xERA over that window is better than his walk rate implies and Minnesota has been held down by good arms recently, but Target Field at 87°F with an APF of 107 and a home average of 6.0 runs in their last three starts behind this rotation slot supports the number. Plus money on five runs from a lineup this hot against a short starter and a leaking bullpen is the mispricing.
MIA @ KCR
7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Eury Perez R
xERA4.05 (avg)ERA3.86 (avg)K%23.7 (good)Whiff%32.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs91BB%20.3 (poor)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+120 (above)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+133 (elite)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%39.2 (avg)
Noah Cameron L
xERA2.32 (elite)ERA0.90 (elite)K%17.6 (avg)Whiff%29.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%3.6 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs94BB%8.1 (avg)
MIA vs LHP
L6
wRC+51 (poor)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%27.4 (poor)
L12
wRC+71 (poor)K%23.6 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%30.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 4.53 (below)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.24 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-104-1.5 (+149)O9.0 (-103)KCR-112+1.5 (-176)U9.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-106+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-120)KCR-118-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (+102/-125)1.5 (-160/+124)KCR4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez4.5 (-142 / +128)15.5 (-132 / +103)Noah Cameron4.5 (-122 / -104)17.5 (-125 / +100)
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@ WSNL3.07452455
Aug 22 '26vs WSNW5.010043312
Aug 16 '26@ CINW6.010052500
Aug 11 '26vs PITW7.010073200
Aug 5 '26@ ATLL5.09197244
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ TORW6.08136222
Aug 21 '26vs DETW5.08522300
Aug 16 '26@ LAAW9.011581100
Aug 10 '26@ LADL5.210126244
Aug 5 '26vs MINW8.010693111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA
home starts6.04.00avg4.04.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs DETW5.08522300
Aug 5 '26vs MINW8.010693111
Jul 19 '26vs SDPL5.09019277
Weather · Hot
99°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph SSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: Whiff% 29.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 17.6 shows
  • MIA — Eury Perez: last start: 74 pitches over 3.0 IP
  • MIA — Eury Perez: 2026-08-28: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
KCR ML (-110)
Kansas City's lineup is at 120 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 133 over their last 12 — established, not a streak — and it faces Eury Perez, who has walked 20.3% of hitters over his last 3 starts and averaged 4.7 IP/gs, exiting after 74 pitches and 3.0 innings his last time out. Miami brings a 51 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 (71 over their last 12) into a matchup with Noah Cameron, who owns a 2.32 xERA and 6.7 IP/gs across his last 3 and has allowed one earned run in his last 20 innings. Perez's xERA of 4.05 says he is better than the walk rate suggests and Miami's bullpen has a 3.23 xERA over its last 12, which keeps this from being a blowout play — but a pick'em price on the side with both the better arm and by far the better lineup is the error, with Kansas City 8-2 at home over their last 10.
CHW @ HOU
8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Davis Martin R
xERA9.93 (poor)ERA14.63 (poor)K%11.9 (poor)Whiff%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.3 (below)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs2.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs50BB%9.5 (avg)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+60 (poor)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Hayden Wesneski R
xERA2.43 (elite)ERA3.86 (avg)K%27.6 (good)Whiff%26.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below)Barrel%2.8 (elite)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs88BB%10.3 (below)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+78 (poor)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%34.5 (below)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 3.20 (good)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 4.81 (below)ERA 6.08 (poor)2d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+120+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-114)HOU-140-1.5 (+152)U8.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+112+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-120)HOU-135-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-160/+124)HOU4.5 (+108/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavis Martin3.5 (+102 / -128)13.5 (-113 / -117)Hayden Wesneski4.5 (-150 / +120)15.5 (+106 / -138)
Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13 '26vs CINL2.03532134
Aug 9 '26vs CLEW1.02312112
Aug 4 '26@ BOSL5.091110299
Jul 29 '26vs NYYW6.010665244
Jul 24 '26vs HOUL5.08836044
Hayden Wesneski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ NYYW5.09163211
Aug 21 '26vs ATHW5.09141300
Aug 15 '26vs SEAL4.08167155
Aug 10 '26@ SFGW7.08345233
Aug 4 '26vs TORW6.07844222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Davis Martin
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.36.19poor4.37.00.7(3)
at HOU6.06.00poor5.07.02.0(1)
1 this season, 2 last season · last met 40 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24 '26vs HOUL5.08836044
Jun 12 '25@ HOUL6.010057244
May 3 '25vs HOUL5.08858033
Hayden Wesneski
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW
home starts5.04.20avg4.74.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs ATHW5.09141300
Aug 15 '26vs SEAL4.08167155
Aug 4 '26vs TORW6.07844222
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
  • CHW — Davis Martin: small sample: 8.0 IP over 3 starts
  • CHW — Davis Martin: avg 2.7 IP/gs over his last 3
  • CHW — Davis Martin: Whiff% 19.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.9 shows
  • HOU bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g)
  • CHW — Davis Martin: 20 days since last start (2026-08-13) news ↗
  • CHW — Davis Martin: last start: 35 pitches over 2.0 IP
  • HOU — Hayden Wesneski: 2026-08-15: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Both offenses are cold — Houston at a 60 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, Chicago at 78 — so the 8.5 total and Houston at -140 are both defensible where they sit, and neither team total offers a gap. Davis Martin is the messiest arm on the slate at a 9.93 xERA with 1.0 and 2.0 inning outings behind him and 20 days since he last pitched, but the 13.5 outs line and 3.5 strikeout line have both already been cut to match that, leaving no room after the uncertainty of how far he is built up. Wesneski's 4.5 strikeout line at -150 asks for five against a Chicago lineup at a 20.8% K rate over their last 6 with his outs line only at 15.5, and his outs number already matches the 4.7 IP/gs he has been going.
NYY @ LAA
9:38 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Cam Schlittler R
xERA2.94 (elite)ERA1.06 (elite)K%26.4 (good)Whiff%32.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.6 (avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%15.3 (poor)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+93 (below)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%35.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%36.9 (avg)
Reid Detmers L
xERA2.28 (elite)ERA0.45 (elite)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%27.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%3.8 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs89BB%1.4 (elite)
NYY vs LHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%34.8 (below)
L12
wRC+131 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 3.86 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
LAA
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 4.85 (below)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-163-1.5 (+113)O6.5 (-106)LAA+140+1.5 (-134)U6.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-166-0.5 (-108)O3.5 (-102)LAA+134+0.5 (-120)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-120/-110)LAA2.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (+135/-175)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCam Schlittler7.5 (-136 / +113)17.5 (-166 / +130)Reid Detmers6.5 (-115 / -108)17.5 (-118 / -112)
Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs BOSW5.210282500
Aug 21 '26vs TORW6.09646311
Aug 15 '26@ TORL5.19774311
Aug 9 '26vs ATLL7.096113011
Aug 3 '26vs STLL3.08364544
Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs PHIL6.08628011
Aug 21 '26@ TEXL6.08956100
Aug 15 '26vs KCRW8.092112000
Aug 10 '26vs TEXL6.08863411
Aug 5 '26@ BALL4.08154133
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY7.01.29elite9.04.00.0(1)
this season · last met 141 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 14 '26@ NYYW7.09994011
home starts6.70.90elite6.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs PHIL6.08628011
Aug 15 '26vs KCRW8.092112000
Aug 10 '26vs TEXL6.08863411
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • NYY bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
  • NYY — Cam Schlittler: last start: 102 pitches over 5.2 IP
  • LAA — Reid Detmers: high-K outing 2026-08-15 (11 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
  • LAA — Reid Detmers: low-K outing 2026-08-28 (2 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
AI Analysis
Two elite starters — Schlittler at a 2.94 xERA and Detmers at 2.28 over their last 3 — already have the total down to 6.5, which is where a 126 wRC+ Yankees lineup vs LHP over their last 6 meets a 93 wRC+ Angels lineup vs RHP, and New York at -163 pays full price for the gap. Schlittler's 7.5 strikeout line asks for a career-type outing off 7, 4 and 8, and his 15.3% walk rate over his last 3 works against the 17.5 outs line at -166. Detmers has gone 8.0, 6.0 and 6.0 innings with strikeout totals of 11, 5 and 2, so both his 6.5 strikeout line and 17.5 outs line sit in the middle of a genuinely wide range.
STL @ LAD
10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brycen Mautz L
xERA4.08 (avg)ERA9.00 (poor)K%34.5 (elite)Whiff%28.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs60BB%10.3 (below)
LAD vs LHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%29.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%29.7 (poor)
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.25 (elite)ERA1.93 (elite)K%35.1 (elite)Whiff%33.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%47.6 (poor)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs103BB%5.4 (good)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+88 (below)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%41.9 (above)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.84 (below)ERA 7.38 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 3.21 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+205+1.5 (-105)O8.0 (-102)LAD-245-1.5 (-110)U7.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+190+0.5 (+112)O4.5 (+112)LAD-230-0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL2.5 (-135/+118)1.5 (+114/-145)LAD4.5 (-118/-105)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrycen MautzY. Yamamoto6.5 (-130 / +116)18.5 (-110 / -116)
Brycen Mautz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs PITL3.0*6185144
May 25 '26@ MILL3.0*5924222
Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ ATLL6.110584111
Aug 21 '26vs PITW6.110795122
Aug 14 '26vs MILW6.09794211
Aug 8 '26@ ARIW5.210763300
Aug 1 '26vs BOSL8.09634133
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.00.00elite9.04.02.0(1)
last season · last met 452 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 7 '25@ STLL6.09494200
home starts6.72.69elite7.04.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs PITW6.110795122
Aug 14 '26vs MILW6.09794211
Aug 1 '26vs BOSL8.09634133
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph WSW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • STL — Brycen Mautz: small sample: 6.0 IP over 3 starts
  • STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
  • LAD bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
  • STL — Brycen Mautz: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-29, 2026-05-25
  • LAD — Y. Yamamoto: last start: 105 pitches over 6.1 IP
AI Analysis
Los Angeles at -245 is beyond the price range worth laying, and the total at 7.5-8.0 already accounts for two below-average offenses — St. Louis at an 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, the Dodgers at 92 vs LHP — with the run line at -1.5 priced as a coin flip. Yamamoto's 6.5 strikeout line is fair off 9, 9 and 8 against a Cardinals lineup at a 22.1% K rate over their last 6, and his 18.5 outs line asks for six-plus innings right where his 6.2 IP/gs sits after a 105-pitch outing. Mautz has only 6.0 innings across 3 starts and the card posts no strikeout or outs line for him, so there is nothing to bet.