AI Picks · 3 Bets · Sep 6
Payton Tolle u17.5 Outs (-105)
BOS @ BAL · 1:35 PM ET
Tolle has not reached 18 outs in any of his last 3 starts — 5.0, 5.1 and 5.2 innings on 98, 97 and 96 pitches — so he is burning a full workload to get 15-17 outs, and his 8.7 BB% over that window is what keeps the counts climbing. Baltimore's bats have been live against left-handers over their last 12 (116 wRC+, better than the 95 they show over their last 6), and Boston's bullpen is fresh at 4.0 relief innings over the past two days, which removes any need to push him through a sixth. The one meeting that argues the other way is his 6.0-inning outing at Baltimore in June of this season, but the two most recent starts against them averaged 5.6 innings and his current pitch efficiency is worse than it was then. The market is pricing this line at his season depth rather than the shorter outings he has actually been turning in.
Found at 6:32 AM ET
ATH Team Total o2.5 (-146)
ATH @ SEA · 4:10 PM ET
The Athletics carry a 143 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 6 with a 133 mark over their last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is established form rather than a hot week — and they are barreling the ball at a 44.6% hard-hit rate over those last 6. Bryan Woo has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a 15.9% barrel rate over his last 3 starts and averages 5.3 innings, which hands roughly four innings to a Seattle bullpen carrying a 4.40 xERA and an 18.3 K% over its last 12 games. The counter is the venue: T-Mobile Park at APF 91 in 69-degree air suppresses run scoring, and Woo's 4.6% walk rate over his last 3 keeps free baserunners off the board. Three runs is a bar an average lineup clears 70% of the time, and the market is pricing this offense well below average in a spot where it is the best-hitting side on the field. Taking the 2.5 rung rather than the 1.5 at -310, where the price no longer pays for the read.
Found at 6:32 AM ET
MIN F5 Moneyline (+120)
MIN @ CHW · 6:20 PM ET
Chicago opens with Bryan Hudson, whose last five outings average 1.1 innings, and hands the bulk to Jose Urquidy, who has made one start since mid-August — 3.0 innings, 6 hits, 4 walks, 5 earned runs — and has worked out of the bullpen twice in the last week. Minnesota's lineup is at 129 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6 with 135 over its last 12 and a 15.6% strikeout rate, exactly the profile that punishes a patchwork staff, and the White Sox relief corps is already at 8.7 innings over the past two days. On the other side Bailey Ober takes a 3.64 xERA over his last 3 into a Chicago lineup sitting at 66 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6. Ober did face these hitters eight days ago, which gives them a fresh look at him, but their bats have not been close to good enough over that stretch to make that matter much. The market has made Chicago a solid favorite off Minnesota's road record while the first five innings are the exact stretch where the White Sox pitching plan is thinnest.
Found at 6:32 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
MIL @
CIN12:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
MIL @
CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Harrison L
xERA4.78 (below)ERA6.59 (poor)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%24.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs89BB%7.8 (avg)
CIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%26.8 (below)Whiff%28.7 (poor)HH%39.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+114 (avg)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%34.7 (below)
Brady Singer R
xERA4.42 (avg)ERA6.19 (poor)K%17.1 (avg)Whiff%21.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%57.1 (poor)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%4.0 (elite)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%26.6 (below)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%47.4 (elite)
L12
wRC+134 (elite)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%21.3 (avg)HH%46.0 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 3.35 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 5.51 (poor)2d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-163-1.5 (+100)O9.0 (-103)CIN+140+1.5 (-120)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-160-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-118)CIN+130+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (-125/+110)2.5 (+100/-130)CIN3.5 (-111/+100)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Harrison6.5 (-111 / -114)15.5 (+134 / -158)Brady Singer4.5 (+106 / -130)15.5 (-114 / -101)
Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@
L3.298310299
L3.298310299Aug 25 '26@
L5.09056111
L5.09056111Aug 18 '26vs
W5.07982200
W5.07982200Aug 11 '26@
L4.290310338
L4.290310338Aug 5 '26vs
W5.069101100
W5.069101100Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
L4.187510044
L4.187510044Aug 25 '26@
L5.29156233
L5.29156233Aug 20 '26vs
L6.010335144
L6.010335144Aug 15 '26vs
L6.09348233
L6.09348233Aug 9 '26@
L6.010338133
L6.010338133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.03.58good5.33.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 22 '26vs
L7.010672200
L7.010672200Sep 28 '25@
L3.17155133
L3.17155133Jun 2 '25vs
L5.09744333
L5.09744333home starts5.46.15poor4.07.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
L4.187510044
L4.187510044Aug 20 '26vs
L6.010335144
L6.010335144Aug 15 '26vs
L6.09348233
L6.09348233Trends · MIL
- MIL are 7-2 vs CIN this season (9 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 2-3 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-4 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 6.6 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 3.0 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-1 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-7 vs MIL this season (9 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 0-5 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 3.0 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 3.8 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-3 to the over in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-1 to the over in Brady Singer's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- MIL bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g)
- CIN bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g)
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: 2026-08-31: 9 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 25); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Both lineups are hot — Milwaukee 130 wRC+ vs right-handers and Cincinnati 126 wRC+ vs left-handers, each over their last 6 — against two starters with ERAs above 6.15 over their last 3, but the total is already up at 9.0/8.5 and both team totals are set at levels the matchups justify. Kyle Harrison's 6.5 strikeout line sits above the 5.3 he has averaged over his last 3, yet Cincinnati strikes out at 26.8% vs left-handers over its last 6, which is the wrong lineup to bet a strikeout under against. Brady Singer's 4.5 strikeout line matches his 4.3 per start over his last 3 and his 15.5 outs line matches the 5.3 innings he has been going.
ATL @
PHI1:10 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
ATL @
PHIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Mahle R
xERA5.10 (below)ERA1.96 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%47.2 (poor)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs86BB%4.1 (elite)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+43 (poor)K%16.5 (above)Whiff%18.3 (above)HH%22.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+72 (poor)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%30.1 (below)
Aaron Nola R
xERA2.77 (elite)ERA2.00 (elite)K%26.8 (good)Whiff%30.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs99BB%7.0 (good)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%41.7 (above)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%40.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 2.11 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
PHI
xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 2.48 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-106-1.5 (+152)O8.0 (-115)PHI-110+1.5 (-184)U8.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-102)PHI-114-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (-142/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)PHI3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Mahle4.5 (+110 / -127)15.5 (-112 / -102)Aaron Nola5.5 (-117 / +104)17.5 (-102 / -120)
Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26vs
W6.28995011
W6.28995011Aug 23 '26@
W5.09446211
W5.09446211Aug 18 '26@
L6.27636122
L6.27636122Aug 12 '26vs
W6.09374011
W6.09374011Aug 7 '26@
L6.09293200
L6.09293200Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@
W5.010445211
W5.010445211Aug 25 '26@
L6.09273322
L6.09273322Aug 19 '26vs
W7.010085011
W7.010085011Aug 13 '26@
W5.09795311
W5.09795311Aug 8 '26vs
L5.09786222
L5.09786222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.14.41avg4.54.53.5(2)
at PHI5.09.00poor3.06.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 28 '26@
L5.08236355
L5.08236355Apr 8 '26vs
W5.29463400
W5.29463400Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.18.82poor5.05.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 26 '26@
L4.210167366
L4.210167366Aug 28 '25vs
W6.09544344
W6.09544344home starts6.03.00good7.05.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19 '26vs
W7.010085011
W7.010085011Aug 8 '26vs
L5.09786222
L5.09786222Aug 3 '26vs
W6.09756233
W6.09756233Trends · ATL
- ATL are 6-2 vs PHI this season (8 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-2 in Tyler Mahle's last 3 away starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 2.3 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-4 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 0-3 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 2-6 vs ATL this season (8 games).
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 3-2 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-3 in Aaron Nola's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 3.8 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.2 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 1-4 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-1 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
75°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph NNE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- PHI — Aaron Nola: last start: 104 pitches over 5.0 IP
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
AI Analysis
Nola's 2.77 xERA over his last 3 against an Atlanta lineup at 130 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6, opposite Mahle's 5.10 xERA against a Philadelphia group slumping to 43 wRC+ over its last 6, is a genuine standoff and the pick'em moneyline and 8.0 total both price it. Nola's 5.5 strikeout line matches his 6.3 per start over his last 3 against a Braves lineup striking out at 23.3% over both its last 6 and last 12, and his 17.5 outs line is his exact recent depth. Mahle's 4.5 strikeout line is priced correctly into a Phillies lineup with a 16.5% strikeout rate over its last 6, and his outs line at 15.5 sits below the 6.1 innings he has averaged with no reason to expect a short leash.
BOS @
BAL✓1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
BOS @
BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Payton Tolle L
xERA2.59 (elite)ERA5.06 (below)K%27.5 (good)Whiff%27.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs97BB%8.7 (avg)
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%15.4 (elite)HH%34.9 (below)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%19.1 (above)HH%39.8 (avg)
Kyle Bradish R
xERA5.29 (poor)ERA7.20 (poor)K%18.3 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.2 (below)Barrel%13.5 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs95BB%8.5 (avg)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+117 (above)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%19.5 (above)HH%36.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%34.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.72 (good)ERA 5.96 (poor)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.96 (elite)ERA 2.77 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-136-1.5 (+122)O7.5 (-115)BAL+118+1.5 (-145)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-135-0.5 (+100)O4.5 (+112)BAL+116+0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+112/-135)1.5 (-154/+120)BAL3.5 (-102/-125)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPayton Tolle6.5 (-130 / +120)17.5 (-119 / -105)Kyle Bradish4.5 (-128 / +107)16.5 (-128 / -101)
Payton Tolle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
W5.29666244
W5.29666244Aug 25 '26@
W5.19774222
W5.19774222Aug 19 '26vs
L5.09866233
L5.09866233Aug 13 '26@
W8.09142200
W8.09142200Aug 7 '26vs
W6.084142011
W6.084142011Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@
L5.09546222
L5.09546222Aug 26 '26@
W4.19149277
W4.19149277Aug 20 '26vs
L5.210058235
L5.210058235Aug 15 '26@
W6.09337422
W6.09337422Aug 8 '26@
L6.09845012
L6.09845012SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Payton Tolle
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.63.21good7.07.51.5(2)
at BAL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20 '26vs
W5.28898144
W5.28898144Jun 3 '26vs
W6.09957200
W6.09957200Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.73.18good5.74.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22 '26@
W6.08944111
W6.08944111Apr 26 '26vs
L5.08834433
L5.08834433Aug 26 '25vs
L6.081104022
L6.081104022home starts4.83.75avg4.34.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20 '26vs
L5.210058235
L5.210058235Aug 2 '26vs
L3.05332222
L3.05332222Jul 11 '26vs
W6.29652211
W6.29652211Trends · BOS
- BOS are 8-5 vs BAL this season (13 games).
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 5-0 in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 8.4 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.8 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 5-0 to the over in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-1 to the over in Payton Tolle's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 5-8 vs BOS this season (13 games).
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL have lost 5 straight.
- BAL are 2-3 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 2-3 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 3.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 3.6 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 0-2 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- BAL offense: K% 23.7 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 15.4 supports
- BOS bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: 2026-08-26: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.40 ERA equivalent
- TREND: BAL — was shut out 5-0 last time out (2026-09-05)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Payton Tolle u17.5 Outs (-105)
Tolle has not reached 18 outs in any of his last 3 starts — 5.0, 5.1 and 5.2 innings on 98, 97 and 96 pitches — so he is burning a full workload to get 15-17 outs, and his 8.7 BB% over that window is what keeps the counts climbing. Baltimore's bats have been live against left-handers over their last 12 (116 wRC+, better than the 95 they show over their last 6), and Boston's bullpen is fresh at 4.0 relief innings over the past two days, which removes any need to push him through a sixth. The one meeting that argues the other way is his 6.0-inning outing at Baltimore in June of this season, but the two most recent starts against them averaged 5.6 innings and his current pitch efficiency is worse than it was then. The market is pricing this line at his season depth rather than the shorter outings he has actually been turning in.
LAA @
PIT1:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
LAA @
PITMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Walbert Urena R
xERA3.86 (avg)ERA4.02 (avg)K%27.3 (good)Whiff%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%10.6 (below)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+109 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%36.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%22.9 (avg)HH%32.7 (below)
Paul Skenes R
xERA3.86 (avg)ERA4.80 (below)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%10.6 (below)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+76 (poor)K%27.7 (below)Whiff%26.8 (below)HH%38.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+77 (poor)K%29.4 (poor)Whiff%27.3 (below)HH%36.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 5.72 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 3.31 (good)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+165+1.5 (-135)O7.5 (-105)PIT-196-1.5 (+114)U7.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+154+0.5 (+100)O3.5 (-146)PIT-188-0.5 (-130)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA2.5 (-150/+120)1.5 (+110/-140)PIT4.5 (+118/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalbert Urena4.5 (-138 / +120)15.5 (-105 / -122)Paul Skenes7.5 (+120 / +124)16.5 (-133 / +104)
Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
W7.09585011
W7.09585011Aug 25 '26vs
L3.28935533
L3.28935533Aug 19 '26@
L5.09473233
L5.09473233Aug 13 '26vs
W6.010052200
W6.010052200Aug 8 '26@
L2.15024344
L2.15024344Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
W4.29548355
W4.29548355Aug 25 '26@
W6.08743000
W6.08743000Aug 19 '26vs
W4.18154433
W4.18154433Aug 11 '26@
L5.06545112
L5.06545112Aug 5 '26@
L5.09362433
L5.09362433SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA—
home starts4.58.73poor6.76.03.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
W4.29548355
W4.29548355Aug 19 '26vs
W4.18154433
W4.18154433Jul 25 '26vs
L5.1105116255
L5.1105116255Trends · LAA
- LAA are 1-1 vs PIT this season (2 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 2-3 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-3 in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 4.4 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 3-2 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-1 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 2 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-1 vs LAA this season (2 games).
- PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 4-1 in Paul Skenes's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 4.0 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 8.6 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 1-4 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-1 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- LAA — Walbert Urena: 2026-08-25: 3 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 8); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.34 ERA equivalent
- PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-09-01: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.29 ERA equivalent
- PIT — Paul Skenes: recent opponents high-K: DET 28%, SDP 26%
AI Analysis
Pittsburgh at 109 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 against Urena, and the Angels at 76 wRC+ against Skenes, is a matchup the -196 price and the 7.5 total already capture. Skenes's 7.5 strikeout line asks for a total he has not reached in his last 3 (5, 4, 4) at a 19.7% strikeout rate, and his 16.5 outs line is priced right off 5.0 innings per start with a 10.6% walk rate. Urena's 4.5 strikeout line matches his 6.0 per start against a lineup that makes contact better than the Angels do, and his 15.5 outs line sits on his 5.2 innings per start.
CHC @
MIA1:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
CHC @
MIAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Clay Holmes R
xERA3.22 (good)ERA0.49 (elite)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%26.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%8.5 (avg)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%33.7 (below)
L12
wRC+114 (avg)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%25.5 (below)HH%31.6 (below)
Tyler Phillips R
xERA2.79 (elite)ERA1.54 (elite)K%29.8 (elite)Whiff%31.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%23.1 (elite)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs65BB%14.9 (poor)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+156 (elite)K%15.8 (elite)Whiff%18.3 (above)HH%35.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.99 (below)ERA 6.23 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
MIA
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 5.55 (poor)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-145-1.5 (+120)O8.0 (-114)MIA+124+1.5 (-136)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-152-0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-102)MIA+124+0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC4.5 (+102/-120)2.5 (+105/-135)MIA3.5 (-104/-120)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UClay Holmes4.5 (-130 / +113)17.5 (-102 / -122)Tyler Phillips3.5 (-138 / +115)14.5 (-102 / -110)
Clay Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
W6.010185200
W6.010185200Aug 25 '26@
L7.09352200
L7.09352200Aug 19 '26vs
L5.18616211
L5.18616211Aug 14 '26vs
W6.28031100
W6.28031100Aug 8 '26@
L4.07016244
L4.07016244Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@
W5.06941200
W5.06941200Aug 25 '26vs
L4.28473311
L4.28473311Aug 18 '26@
L2.0*4232211
L2.0*4232211Aug 13 '26vs
L5.19266144
L5.19266144Aug 7 '26vs
L4.06145111
L4.06145111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Clay Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.43.35good4.73.72.3(3)
at MIA5.10.88elite4.03.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '25@
W6.07821300
W6.07821300Aug 28 '25vs
L5.08825124
L5.08825124Apr 8 '25vs
W5.187105344
W5.187105344Apr 2 '25@
W4.28566212
W4.28566212Tyler Phillips
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC—
home starts4.44.06avg5.74.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26vs
L4.28473311
L4.28473311Aug 13 '26vs
L5.19266144
L5.19266144Aug 7 '26vs
L4.06145111
L4.06145111Trends · CHC
- CHC are 2-0 vs MIA this season (2 games).
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-3 in Clay Holmes's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 0-2 in Clay Holmes's last 2 away starts.
- CHC average 5.4 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 3.5 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-2 to the over in Clay Holmes's last 4 starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 0-2 vs CHC this season (2 games).
- MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-4 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 3.8 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 3.4 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 4-1 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-1 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- MIA bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
- CHC — Clay Holmes: last start: 101 pitches over 6.0 IP
- CHC — Clay Holmes: recent opponents high-K: ARI 26%, MIL 27%
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: last start: 69 pitches over 5.0 IP
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: 2026-08-13: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.07 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Two above-average offenses at 126 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 face two starters with sub-3.25 xERAs over their last 3, and with both bullpens carrying ERAs above 5.50 the 8.0 total lands almost exactly where the matchups project. Tyler Phillips misses bats at a 31.8% whiff rate over his last 3, but his 3.5 strikeout line runs into a Cubs lineup with a 19.2% strikeout rate over its last 6 and a 14.5 outs line that caps the opportunity. Clay Holmes at 4.5 strikeouts is priced right for a 19.7% strikeout rate over his last 3, and his 17.5 outs line matches the 6.1 innings per start he has been going.
DET @
CLE1:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
DET @
CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jackson Jobe R
xERA4.20 (avg)ERA3.68 (good)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%16.5 (below)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs88BB%12.3 (below)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+121 (above)K%17.6 (above)Whiff%17.9 (elite)HH%30.5 (below)
L12
wRC+108 (avg)K%18.5 (above)Whiff%16.2 (elite)HH%32.5 (below)
Gavin Williams R
xERA2.89 (elite)ERA4.50 (below)K%45.0 (elite)Whiff%43.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs85BB%8.3 (avg)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+58 (poor)K%27.8 (below)Whiff%27.8 (below)HH%44.3 (above)
L12
wRC+49 (poor)K%26.9 (below)Whiff%24.9 (avg)HH%43.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 5.27 (poor)2d stress Normal (10.0 IP/3g)
CLE
xERA 2.81 (elite)ERA 2.94 (elite)2d stress Elevated (13.7 IP/3g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET+142+1.5 (-158)O7.5 (-106)CLE-168-1.5 (+135)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+150+0.5 (-102)O3.5 (-144)CLE-175-0.5 (-125)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UDET3.5 (+114/-140)CLE3.5 (-145/+118)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJackson Jobe3.5 (+111 / -130)15.5 (+102 / -130)Gavin Williams7.5 (-113 / -107)17.5 (-136 / +103)
Jackson Jobe · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@
L5.09246245
L5.09246245Aug 25 '26vs
W4.18644311
W4.18644311Aug 19 '26@
L5.18634311
L5.18634311Aug 14 '26vs
L3.27449166
L3.27449166Aug 8 '26@
W5.07141100
W5.07141100Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
W7.097132101
W7.097132101Aug 25 '26@
W1.16236155
W1.16236155Aug 20 '26vs
W5.296114322
W5.296114322Aug 14 '26vs
L4.19157455
L4.19157455Aug 8 '26@
L5.210273222
L5.210273222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jackson Jobe
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.03.60good3.04.02.0(1)
at CLE—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 23 '25vs
L5.08934222
L5.08934222Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.71.06elite9.72.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '25vs
W6.091124222
W6.091124222Sep 17 '25@
W5.010093200
W5.010093200Jul 6 '25vs
L6.09781300
L6.09781300home starts5.43.87avg9.74.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
W7.097132101
W7.097132101Aug 20 '26vs
W5.296114322
W5.296114322Aug 14 '26vs
L4.19157455
L4.19157455Trends · DET
- DET are 3-10 vs CLE this season (13 games).
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 in Jackson Jobe's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-2 in Jackson Jobe's last 3 away starts.
- DET average 4.2 runs/game in Jackson Jobe's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.0 runs/game in Jackson Jobe's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-2 to the over in Jackson Jobe's last 4 starts.
- DET are 1-1 to the over in Jackson Jobe's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 10-3 vs DET this season (13 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 5.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 4.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 4-1 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-1 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph NNE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- CLE bullpen elevated (13.7 IP over 3g)
- DET — Jackson Jobe: 2026-08-31: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.98 ERA equivalent
- DET — Jackson Jobe: recent opponents low-K: TBR 17%, MIN 16%
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-08-25: 5 ER in 1.1 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.73 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Gavin Williams: low-K outing 2026-08-25 (3 Ks vs avg 9.0 over his last 3)
- TREND: CLE — was shut out 6-0 last time out (2026-09-05)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
AI Analysis
Detroit at 58 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6 against Gavin Williams is a real edge, but Cleveland is already laying -168 and the Tigers team total under 3.5 at -140 has come to meet the read. Williams's 7.5 strikeout line needs eight against a lineup that will strike out but off a starter who was pulled after 1.1 innings two starts ago, and his 17.5 outs line is defensible with a Cleveland bullpen that has thrown 13.7 innings over three days and needs length. Jackson Jobe's 3.5 strikeout line matches his 3.7 per start over his last 3 against a Guardians lineup with a 17.6% strikeout rate over its last 6, and his 15.5 outs line is his current depth.
SFG @
NYM1:40 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
SFG @
NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Cesar Perdomo L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYM vs LHP
L6
wRC+134 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Christian Scott R
xERA4.78 (below)ERA5.51 (poor)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%27.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.8 (good)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs93BB%15.3 (poor)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+138 (elite)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%18.2 (above)HH%34.1 (below)
L12
wRC+128 (above)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%39.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 5.06 (below)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
NYM
xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 4.78 (below)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+136+1.5 (-154)O8.5 (-104)NYM-155-1.5 (+135)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+150+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-102)NYM-190-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/USFG3.5 (-113/-110)NYM4.5 (+100/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCesar Perdomo——Christian Scott5.5 (+115 / -138)15.5 (+102 / -135)
Cesar Perdomo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@
L4.0*5843111
L4.0*5843111Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs
L5.19621533
L5.19621533Aug 22 '26@
W4.29465444
W4.29465444Aug 16 '26vs
W6.19075233
W6.19075233Aug 10 '26@
W4.08267144
W4.08267144Aug 5 '26@
W5.09676233
W5.09676233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG—
home starts5.73.66good5.33.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs
L5.19621533
L5.19621533Aug 16 '26vs
W6.19075233
W6.19075233Jul 29 '26vs
L6.09875111
L6.09875111Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-4 vs NYM this season (6 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- SFG are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-2 vs SFG this season (6 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 4-1 in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Christian Scott's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 5.8 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 2.2 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 to the over in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 0-2 to the over in Christian Scott's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
70°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 3 mph ENE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- SFG — Cesar Perdomo: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SFG bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
- SFG — Cesar Perdomo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01
- NYM — Christian Scott: low-K outing 2026-08-28 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
AI Analysis
San Francisco starts Cesar Perdomo, who has no track record this season, which makes the side, the total and any market on him unusable. New York's Christian Scott has a 4.78 xERA and a 15.3% walk rate over his last 3 against a Giants lineup at 138 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6, but his 5.5 strikeout line is set at the 5.0 he has been averaging and his 15.5 outs line matches the 5.4 innings his walks allow him.
ARI @
HOU2:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
ARI @
HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
E. Rodriguez L
xERA2.41 (elite)ERA1.53 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%18.4 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs102BB%11.0 (below)
HOU vs LHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%17.9 (elite)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+143 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%20.1 (above)HH%33.3 (below)
Peter Lambert R
xERA5.14 (below)ERA8.36 (poor)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.8 (elite)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%13.9 (poor)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+49 (poor)K%25.6 (below)Whiff%26.6 (below)HH%25.3 (poor)
L12
wRC+67 (poor)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%29.3 (poor)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 3.21 (good)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 3.65 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-106-1.5 (+155)O8.5 (+104)HOU-110+1.5 (-182)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-110-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-102)HOU-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI3.5 (-135/+114)1.5 (-145/+114)HOU3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UE. Rodriguez4.5 (+115 / -128)18.5 (+126 / +120)Peter Lambert4.5 (-125 / +100)15.5 (-114 / -113)
E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
L5.010338333
L5.010338333Aug 26 '26vs
W7.010492300
W7.010492300Aug 21 '26vs
W5.29944200
W5.29944200Aug 15 '26@
W6.09655022
W6.09655022Aug 9 '26vs
W7.011595222
W7.011595222Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
W4.210463522
W4.210463522Aug 26 '26@
L5.210257323
L5.210257323Aug 20 '26vs
L3.27938299
L3.27938299Aug 14 '26vs
W5.09664222
W5.09664222Aug 8 '26@
L5.09735323
L5.09735323SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.10.00elite3.06.03.0(1)
at HOU—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22 '25vs
L6.19036300
L6.19036300Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI—
home starts4.19.44poor5.05.03.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
W4.210463522
W4.210463522Aug 20 '26vs
L3.27938299
L3.27938299Aug 14 '26vs
W5.09664222
W5.09664222Trends · ARI
- ARI are 1-1 vs HOU this season (2 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 5-0 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 5.2 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.8 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 3-2 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 1-1 vs ARI this season (2 games).
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 2-3 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 4-1 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 4.8 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 6.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 4-1 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-0 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- HOU offense: K% 20.3 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 17.9 supports
- HOU bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g)
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: last start: 103 pitches over 5.0 IP
- HOU — Peter Lambert: last start: 104 pitches over 4.2 IP
- HOU — Peter Lambert: 2026-08-20: 9 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 25); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.87 ERA equivalent
- HOU — Peter Lambert: recent opponents high-K: LAA 28%, NYY 28%
AI Analysis
Rodriguez brings a 2.41 xERA over his last 3 against a Houston lineup at 111 wRC+ vs left-handers over its last 6, while Arizona's bats are at 49 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 against a Lambert who has an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 — those two forces cancel and the pick'em moneyline and 8.0/8.5 total both reflect it. Rodriguez's strikeout number at 4.5 asks for a total he has hit once in his last 3 (4, 9, 3) against a Houston group whose 17.9% whiff rate over its last 6 says the strikeouts are not there, and his outs line at 18.5 already assumes a six-inning outing. Lambert's outs line at 15.5 sits right on the 4.7 innings he has been going, and his 4.5 strikeout line is fair for a 19.4% strikeout rate over his last 3.
TOR @
KCR2:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
TOR @
KCRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
S. Arrighetti R
xERA4.73 (below)ERA6.55 (poor)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%22.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.4 (good)Barrel%8.8 (avg)IP/gs5.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs67BB%10.2 (below)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+120 (above)K%13.3 (elite)Whiff%18.9 (above)HH%46.4 (elite)
L12
wRC+134 (elite)K%17.2 (above)Whiff%20.6 (above)HH%42.9 (above)
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.74 (below)ERA5.06 (below)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs92BB%9.7 (avg)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+104 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%18.1 (above)Whiff%18.8 (above)HH%39.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 3.55 (good)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 3.59 (good)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-120-1.5 (+130)O9.5 (-115)KCR+105+1.5 (-155)U9.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-104+0.5 (-146)O5.5 (-102)KCR-120-0.5 (+112)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UTOR4.5 (-140/+110)KCR4.5 (-106/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/US. Arrighetti3.5 (-122 / +115)14.5 (-137 / +103)Randy Dobnak2.5 (+112 / -143)15.5 (-102 / -130)
S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@
L3.2*6222122
L3.2*6222122Aug 27 '26vs
L4.07945234
L4.07945234Aug 21 '26@
L3.1*6143233
L3.1*6143233Jul 24 '26@
W1.03302233
W1.03302233Jul 18 '26vs
L5.08561411
L5.08561411Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
L6.08767266
L6.08767266Aug 26 '26@
L6.09256133
L6.09256133Aug 20 '26vs
W4.09646400
W4.09646400Aug 15 '26@
L5.29364200
L5.29364200Aug 9 '26vs
L5.094410144
L5.094410144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.06.30poor5.56.51.5(2)
at KCR6.06.00poor7.08.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs
L4.07945234
L4.07945234Jun 14 '26@
L6.010178144
L6.010178144Randy Dobnak
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR6.04.50below5.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
L6.09256133
L6.09256133home starts5.06.00poor4.77.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
L6.08767266
L6.08767266Aug 20 '26vs
W4.09646400
W4.09646400Aug 9 '26vs
L5.094410144
L5.094410144Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-2 vs KCR this season (5 games).
- TOR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR have won 4 straight.
- TOR are 0-1 in S. Arrighetti's last 1 starts.
- TOR average 2.0 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 2-0 to the over in S. Arrighetti's last 2 starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-3 vs TOR this season (5 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 1-4 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 3-2 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 2.2 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 5.0 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
98°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph E
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- TOR bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
- KCR bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01, 2026-08-21
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: last start: 79 pitches over 4.0 IP
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: 2026-07-24: 3 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.28 ERA equivalent
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: 2026-09-01: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.25 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
These clubs met ten and eleven days ago and both starters were ordinary in those games; with Toronto at 104 wRC+ and Kansas City at 120 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 against two starters with xERAs near 4.73, the 9.5 total and the -120 moneyline both look right. Arrighetti's 3.5 strikeout line is fair after a 4.0-inning, 79-pitch outing against this same Royals lineup, and his 14.5 outs line already accounts for that short leash. Dobnak's 2.5 strikeout line sits under the 5.0 he has averaged over his last 3 but Kansas City faces a Toronto lineup and his 15.5 outs line matches the six innings he has thrown in each of his last two.
TBR @
TEX2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
TBR @
TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ian Seymour L
xERA2.29 (elite)ERA4.76 (below)K%32.4 (elite)Whiff%28.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%23.4 (elite)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs8.5 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs89BB%1.4 (elite)
TEX vs LHP
L6
wRC+183 (elite)K%17.5 (above)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%49.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+164 (elite)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%23.2 (avg)HH%47.3 (elite)
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.49 (good)ERA3.00 (good)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%29.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%13.4 (poor)
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+114 (avg)K%18.1 (above)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%30.6 (below)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%15.5 (elite)Whiff%16.5 (elite)HH%30.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.71 (good)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 4.54 (below)ERA 6.32 (poor)2d stress Stressed (12.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-104-1.5 (+162)O7.5 (-110)TEX-110+1.5 (-184)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-102+0.5 (-152)O3.5 (-144)TEX-122-0.5 (+116)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UTBR3.5 (-122/-104)TEX3.5 (-115/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UIan Seymour5.5 (-111 / +108)16.5 (-139 / +104)MacKenzie Gore5.5 (+124 / -159)17.5 (+115 / -126)
Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
L6.188106033
L6.188106033Aug 25 '26@
L5.2*8857034
L5.2*8857034Aug 20 '26vs
L5.09086133
L5.09086133Aug 15 '26vs
L6.09396133
L6.09396133Aug 9 '26@
W6.09875211
W6.09875211MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
W5.19545411
W5.19545411Aug 26 '26@
L3.28348444
L3.28348444Aug 21 '26vs
W6.010072100
W6.010072100Aug 15 '26@
W5.29958233
W5.29958233Aug 10 '26@
W5.110394211
W5.110394211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR7.03.86avg9.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29 '26@
L7.09593033
L7.09593033home starts5.70.53elite5.03.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
W5.19545411
W5.19545411Aug 21 '26vs
W6.010072100
W6.010072100Aug 4 '26vs
W6.09943300
W6.09943300Trends · TBR
- TBR are 4-2 vs TEX this season (6 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-1 in Ian Seymour's last 4 away starts.
- TBR average 4.6 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 7.0 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 0-5 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 2-4 vs TBR this season (6 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 4-1 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 5-0 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 4.6 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 5.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 2-3 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-1 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: Whiff% 29.5 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 22.4 shows
- TEX bullpen stressed (12.0 IP over 2g)
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-25
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: 2026-08-26: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.88 ERA equivalent
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: recent opponents high-K: LAA 31%, CHW 29%
AI Analysis
Texas at 183 wRC+ vs left-handers over its last 6 with a 49.3% hard-hit rate is the loudest number on the board, and it is aimed at Ian Seymour's 2.29 xERA and 31.0% K-BB rate over his last 3 — two heavy forces in direct opposition, which is what the pick'em moneyline and even-money 7.5 total already say. Seymour's 5.5 strikeout line sits well below his 9.0 per start but Tampa Bay's own outs line at 16.5 and the quality of the Rangers' contact against left-handers make it a coin flip at the price. Gore's 5.5 strikeout line matches his 5.0 per start against a Rays lineup with an 18.1% strikeout rate over its last 6, and his 17.5 outs line already sits above the 5.0 innings his 13.4% walk rate has been producing.
STL @
COL3:10 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
STL @
COLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Leahy R
xERA2.45 (elite)ERA0.75 (elite)K%27.7 (good)Whiff%28.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%48.4 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs68BB%6.4 (good)
COL vs RHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%30.5 (below)
L12
wRC+101 (avg)K%20.7 (avg)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Tanner Gordon R
xERA2.74 (elite)ERA3.63 (good)K%14.1 (below)Whiff%18.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.0 (good)Barrel%5.2 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs77BB%4.2 (elite)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+91 (below)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%41.0 (above)
L12
wRC+87 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%43.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.83 (below)ERA 6.23 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
COL
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 3.80 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-130-1.5 (+115)O11.0 (-112)COL+112+1.5 (-132)U11.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-135-0.5 (-102)O5.5 (-138)COL+110+0.5 (-128)U5.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL5.5 (-125/+105)2.5 (-145/+114)COL4.5 (-140/+112)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Leahy3.5 (+134 / +112)—Tanner Gordon3.5 (-154 / +122)15.5 (+114 / -152)
Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs
L3.05134111
L3.05134111Aug 23 '26@
L4.06342200
L4.06342200Aug 18 '26@
W5.09063000
W5.09063000Aug 12 '26vs
W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7 '26vs
W5.08288022
W5.08288022Tanner Gordon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
L5.06033111
L5.06033111Aug 26 '26@
W7.09056011
W7.09056011Aug 21 '26vs
L5.18229255
L5.18229255Aug 15 '26@
L4.0*6343000
L4.0*6343000Aug 9 '26@
L3.1*4824022
L3.1*4824022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.03.60good8.08.00.0(1)
at COL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7 '26vs
W5.08288022
W5.08288022Tanner Gordon
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.00.00elite3.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23 '25vs
W6.09634300
W6.09634300home starts5.05.35poor2.56.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
L5.06033111
L5.06033111Aug 21 '26vs
L5.18229255
L5.18229255Trends · STL
- STL are 3-2 vs COL this season (5 games).
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.8 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 2.6 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 3 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 2-3 vs STL this season (5 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 3-2 in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Tanner Gordon's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 5.2 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.6 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Tanner Gordon's last 3 starts.
- COL are 0-2 to the over in Tanner Gordon's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph NE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- COL bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
- STL — Kyle Leahy: last start: 51 pitches over 3.0 IP
- COL — Tanner Gordon: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15, 2026-08-09
- COL — Tanner Gordon: last start: 60 pitches over 5.0 IP
- COL — Tanner Gordon: 2026-08-21: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.54 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115)
AI Analysis
Coors with the total already at 11.0 leaves nothing to attack on the over, and with St. Louis at 91 wRC+ and Colorado at 92 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 the under is no bargain either. Kyle Leahy went 51 pitches over 3.0 innings his last time out and the card posts no outs line for him, which makes his 3.5 strikeout market unusable in either direction. Tanner Gordon's 3.5 strikeout line at -154 asks for four from a pitcher with a 14.1% strikeout rate over his last 3, but the under price at +122 does not pay enough against a Cardinals lineup striking out at 23.4% over its last 12, and his 15.5 outs line matches his recent 5.8 innings per start.
ATH @
SEA✓4:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
ATH @
SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gage Jump L
xERA5.44 (poor)ERA8.59 (poor)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.4 (below)Barrel%17.0 (poor)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs90BB%11.6 (below)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+86 (below)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%25.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+72 (poor)K%27.4 (below)Whiff%26.8 (below)HH%28.9 (poor)
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.82 (avg)ERA5.06 (below)K%26.2 (good)Whiff%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%45.5 (poor)Barrel%15.9 (poor)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs83BB%4.6 (elite)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+143 (elite)K%25.2 (below)Whiff%26.9 (below)HH%44.6 (above)
L12
wRC+133 (elite)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%27.9 (below)HH%39.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 3.60 (good)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
SEA
xERA 4.40 (avg)ERA 4.89 (below)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+172+1.5 (-132)O7.5 (-106)SEA-196-1.5 (+112)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+182+0.5 (+114)O4.5 (+116)SEA-210-0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH2.5 (-146/+120)1.5 (+110/-140)SEA4.5 (+110/-138)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGage Jump5.5 (-109 / +102)16.5 (-106 / -115)Bryan Woo6.5 (-120 / +106)17.5 (-200 / +149)
Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@
L4.19126377
L4.19126377Aug 25 '26vs
W6.19493222
W6.19493222Aug 20 '26@
L4.08638355
L4.08638355Aug 14 '26vs
W5.110113433
W5.110113433Aug 8 '26@
W6.0100116222
W6.0100116222Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@
W6.09975112
W6.09975112Aug 26 '26vs
L4.07655166
L4.07655166Aug 16 '26@
W6.07553122
W6.07553122Aug 11 '26@
L5.09253100
L5.09253100Aug 5 '26vs
W7.09153100
W7.09153100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.07.20poor5.09.01.0(1)
at SEA—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 26 '26vs
L5.08859144
L5.08859144Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH6.45.18below6.35.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '25vs
W7.08871211
W7.08871211Jul 30 '25@
L6.18468155
L6.18468155May 7 '25@
W6.010068155
W6.010068155home starts5.74.24avg5.74.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
L4.07655166
L4.07655166Aug 5 '26vs
W7.09153100
W7.09153100Jul 18 '26vs
W6.09876223
W6.09876223Trends · ATH
- ATH are 5-4 vs SEA this season (9 games).
- ATH are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have won 4 straight.
- ATH are 3-2 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in Gage Jump's last 5 away starts.
- ATH average 4.4 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 3.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in Gage Jump's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 4-5 vs ATH this season (9 games).
- SEA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 4-1 in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 3.4 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 3.8 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 2-3 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-2 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
69°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NNW
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 5
- ATH bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
- ATH — Gage Jump: high-K outing 2026-08-25 (9 Ks vs avg 4.7 over his last 3)
- SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-08-26: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.25 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
ATH Team Total o2.5 (-146)
The Athletics carry a 143 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 6 with a 133 mark over their last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is established form rather than a hot week — and they are barreling the ball at a 44.6% hard-hit rate over those last 6. Bryan Woo has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a 15.9% barrel rate over his last 3 starts and averages 5.3 innings, which hands roughly four innings to a Seattle bullpen carrying a 4.40 xERA and an 18.3 K% over its last 12 games. The counter is the venue: T-Mobile Park at APF 91 in 69-degree air suppresses run scoring, and Woo's 4.6% walk rate over his last 3 keeps free baserunners off the board. Three runs is a bar an average lineup clears 70% of the time, and the market is pricing this offense well below average in a spot where it is the best-hitting side on the field. Taking the 2.5 rung rather than the 1.5 at -310, where the price no longer pays for the read.
NYY @
SDP4:10 PM · Petco ParkHot
NYY @
SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.12 (good)ERA3.63 (good)K%24.7 (good)Whiff%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%49.0 (poor)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs87BB%4.1 (elite)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+73 (poor)K%25.8 (below)Whiff%23.4 (avg)HH%42.6 (above)
L12
wRC+87 (below)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%22.9 (avg)HH%43.4 (above)
Michael King R
xERA3.72 (good)ERA0.92 (elite)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%24.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.0 (good)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs98BB%9.1 (avg)
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+115 (above)K%28.2 (poor)Whiff%26.1 (below)HH%53.5 (elite)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%24.9 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%47.0 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 4.41 (avg)ERA 4.01 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
SDP
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 2.25 (elite)2d stress Stressed (11.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-110-1.5 (+155)O7.0 (-108)SDP-106+1.5 (-178)U7.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-125-0.5 (+114)O3.5 (-128)SDP+102+0.5 (-148)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-130/+100)SDP3.5 (+112/-135)1.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole5.5 (+108 / -128)18.5 (+154 / +142)Michael King5.5 (-106 / -112)17.5 (-127 / +130)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@
W5.19058133
W5.19058133Aug 27 '26vs
L6.07956133
L6.07956133Aug 20 '26@
W6.09384111
W6.09384111Aug 14 '26@
L6.08755212
L6.08755212Aug 8 '26vs
W7.08296022
W7.08296022Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@
W6.09664300
W6.09664300Aug 25 '26vs
L7.09875200
L7.09875200Aug 19 '26@
L6.210044222
L6.210044222Aug 14 '26@
W6.08348134
W6.08348134Aug 8 '26vs
W6.09363111
W6.09363111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.03.00good2.03.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 6 '25@
L6.09023222
L6.09023222home starts6.32.37elite6.34.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26vs
L7.09875200
L7.09875200Aug 8 '26vs
W6.09363111
W6.09363111Jul 28 '26vs
W6.09866144
W6.09866144Trends · NYY
- NYY are 1-1 vs SDP this season (2 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 4-1 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-2 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 1-1 vs NYY this season (2 games).
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 3-2 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 3-2 in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 3.4 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-4 to the over in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Michael King's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
93°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph NW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 1
- SDP bullpen stressed (11.7 IP over 2g)
AI Analysis
Cole's 3.12 xERA over his last 3 against a Padres lineup at 73 wRC+ vs right-handers over its last 6, opposite King's 0.92 ERA and 3.72 xERA against a Yankees lineup at 115 wRC+, produces the pick'em moneyline and the low 7.0 total the market has posted. Cole's 5.5 strikeout line matches his 6.0 per start and his 18.5 outs line asks for six full innings from a starter averaging 5.8. King's 5.5 strikeout line is exactly his 5.7 per start over his last 3 and his 17.5 outs line at -127 is fair for an arm averaging 6.6 innings, leaving nothing to take.
MIN @
CHW✓6:20 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
MIN @
CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bailey Ober R
xERA3.64 (good)ERA2.51 (elite)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.2 (below)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs87BB%9.7 (avg)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+66 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%36.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%34.3 (below)
Jose Urquidy RBULK
Opener: Bryan Hudson (LHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA3.22 (good)ERA6.00 (poor)K%7.0 (poor)Whiff%16.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%29.4 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs10.0PC/gs59BB%9.3 (avg)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+129 (above)K%15.6 (elite)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+135 (elite)K%14.7 (elite)Whiff%18.9 (above)HH%39.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 4.95 (below)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
CHW
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 2.94 (elite)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+128+1.5 (-170)O8.5 (+100)CHW-150-1.5 (+142)U8.5 (-111)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+120+0.5 (-125)O4.5 (-118)CHW-150-0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UMIN3.5 (-113/-105)CHW4.5 (+112/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBailey Ober3.5 (-125 / +105)15.5 (+140 / -163)Jose Urquidy——
Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs
L5.08052212
L5.08052212Aug 23 '26@
L5.08734311
L5.08734311Aug 17 '26vs
W4.19446122
W4.19446122Aug 11 '26vs
L6.010048155
L6.010048155Aug 6 '26@
W6.07406033
W6.07406033Jose Urquidy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 3 '26@
L1.0*1701000
L1.0*1701000Aug 30 '26@
L5.0*6713011
L5.0*6713011Aug 24 '26vs
L3.09326455
L3.09326455Aug 19 '26@
W6.0*6882000
W6.0*6882000Aug 14 '26@
W3.2*5235033
W3.2*5235033SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bailey Ober
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.33.38good4.75.31.7(3)
at CHW—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs
L5.08052212
L5.08052212Sep 1 '25vs
L5.06936244
L5.06936244Apr 22 '25vs
W6.08768111
W6.08768111Jose Urquidy
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN—
home starts3.015.00poor2.06.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24 '26vs
L3.09326455
L3.09326455Trends · MIN
- MIN are 5-7 vs CHW this season (12 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Bailey Ober's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 2.6 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.8 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 1-4 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 7-5 vs MIN this season (12 games).
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 0-1 in Jose Urquidy's last 1 starts.
- CHW are 0-1 in Jose Urquidy's last 1 home starts.
- CHW average 2.0 runs/game in Jose Urquidy's last 1 starts.
- CHW average 2.0 runs/game in Jose Urquidy's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Jose Urquidy's last 3 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
74°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph NE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- OPENER: CHW start Bryan Hudson (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.1 IP (longest 1.3)), with Jose Urquidy (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — MIN's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- CHW bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
- CHW — Jose Urquidy: 13 days since last start (2026-08-24) news ↗
- CHW — Jose Urquidy: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-03, 2026-08-30
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
MIN F5 Moneyline (+120)
Chicago opens with Bryan Hudson, whose last five outings average 1.1 innings, and hands the bulk to Jose Urquidy, who has made one start since mid-August — 3.0 innings, 6 hits, 4 walks, 5 earned runs — and has worked out of the bullpen twice in the last week. Minnesota's lineup is at 129 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6 with 135 over its last 12 and a 15.6% strikeout rate, exactly the profile that punishes a patchwork staff, and the White Sox relief corps is already at 8.7 innings over the past two days. On the other side Bailey Ober takes a 3.64 xERA over his last 3 into a Chicago lineup sitting at 66 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6. Ober did face these hitters eight days ago, which gives them a fresh look at him, but their bats have not been close to good enough over that stretch to make that matter much. The market has made Chicago a solid favorite off Minnesota's road record while the first five innings are the exact stretch where the White Sox pitching plan is thinnest.
WSN @
LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
WSN @
LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA3.40 (good)ERA2.30 (elite)K%26.2 (good)Whiff%23.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs84BB%12.3 (below)
LAD vs LHP
L6
wRC+121 (above)K%15.8 (elite)Whiff%27.4 (below)HH%36.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%19.4 (above)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%33.0 (below)
Justin Wrobleski L
xERA5.11 (below)ERA7.15 (poor)K%24.1 (good)Whiff%27.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%45.7 (poor)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs73BB%9.3 (avg)
WSN vs LHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%28.3 (poor)Whiff%34.6 (poor)HH%31.2 (below)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%27.9 (below)HH%30.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.63 (below)ERA 7.84 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.63 (good)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+187+1.5 (-123)O8.5 (-103)LAD-220-1.5 (+106)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+164+0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-114)LAD-210-0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UWSN3.5 (+106/-135)LAD4.5 (-120/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Alvarez3.5 (+106 / -126)14.5 (-120 / +115)Justin Wrobleski4.5 (+124 / -138)13.5 (-124 / -107)
Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26vs
L6.09762300
L6.09762300Aug 25 '26vs
L4.28165233
L4.28165233Aug 20 '26@
L5.07554311
L5.07554311Aug 14 '26@
L5.27342122
L5.27342122Aug 8 '26vs
W5.17323111
W5.17323111Justin Wrobleski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs
L2.0*3642123
L2.0*3642123Aug 15 '26vs
L6.010764144
L6.010764144Aug 9 '26@
L3.17636334
L3.17636334Aug 3 '26@
L4.19147377
L4.19147377Jul 28 '26vs
L6.010277055
L6.010277055SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Justin Wrobleski
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.014.40poor4.08.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 8 '25@
L5.08748388
L5.08748388home starts6.06.75poor6.55.50.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26vs
L6.010764144
L6.010764144Jul 28 '26vs
L6.010277055
L6.010277055Trends · WSN
- WSN are 0-5 vs LAD this season (5 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 1-9 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 1-4 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-4 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 2.4 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 2.4 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 1-4 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 5-0 vs WSN this season (5 games).
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 1-4 in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-3 in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.0 runs/game in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 2-2 to the over in Justin Wrobleski's last 4 starts.
- LAD are 1-1 to the over in Justin Wrobleski's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph W
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- LAD offense: Whiff% 27.4 (last 6) runs well above what K% 15.8 shows
- LAD — Justin Wrobleski: 22 days since last start (2026-08-15) news ↗
- LAD — Justin Wrobleski: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01
- LAD — Justin Wrobleski: last start: 107 pitches over 6.0 IP
- LAD — Justin Wrobleski: recent opponents low-K: CHC 17%, MIL 18%
AI Analysis
Wrobleski's 5.11 xERA over his last 3 against a Dodgers-opposing lineup that is only at 98 wRC+ vs left-handers over its last 6 with a 34.6% whiff rate does not create enough for Washington at +187, and Los Angeles at 121 wRC+ vs left-handers over its last 6 facing Alvarez's 3.40 xERA is fairly reflected in the 8.5 total. Alvarez's 3.5 strikeout line is close to his 5.7 per start but his 14.5 outs line and a 12.3% walk rate over his last 3 cap the innings, leaving no value either way. Wrobleski has not started in 22 days, his 4.5 strikeout line matches his 4.3 per start, and his 13.5 outs line already assumes the short outing that layoff implies.