MLB Game Overviews

CLE @

TBR

8:08 PM · (Dome)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Gavin Williams R

xERA1.76 (elite)ERA1.54 (elite)K%51.2 (elite)Whiff%38.8 (elite)BB%7.0 (good)

More Stats

HH%41.2 (below)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs92

TBR vs RHP

wRC+61 (poor)K%26.7 (below)Whiff%27.5 (below)BB%6.9 (below)HH%30.9 (below)

L12

wRC+87 (below)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)BB%4.6 (poor)HH%40.2 (above)

Griffin Jax R

xERA3.77 (avg)ERA4.00 (avg)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (good)BB%8.3 (avg)

More Stats

HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%11.5 (below)IP/gs4.5 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs64

CLE vs RHP

wRC+81 (below)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%22.8 (avg)BB%7.8 (below)HH%32.0 (below)

L12

wRC+86 (below)K%20.7 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%34.9 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

CLE

xERA 3.42 (good)ERA 3.27 (good)

TBR

xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 3.00 (good)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCLE+600+3.5 (-136)O7.5 (+117)TBR-900-3.5 (+115)U7.5 (-144)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCLE+1500+2.5 (+124)O4.5 (+122)TBR-4000-2.5 (-166)U4.5 (-162)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE1.5 (-125/-105)0.5 (+160/-205)TBR5.5 (+120/+100)3.5 (-125/-105)

Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 25 '26@

W3.17445444

Sep 20 '26vs

W7.08993100

Sep 14 '26vs

L5.011374322

Sep 6 '26vs

W6.099114322

Sep 1 '26vs

W7.097132101

Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 26 '26@

W3.05212000

Sep 20 '26vs

W5.07453200

Sep 15 '26vs

W5.06772000

Sep 9 '26@

W5.06622111

Sep 2 '26vs

L2.26317266

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Gavin Williams

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR7.10.63elite6.06.01.5(2)

at TBR7.01.29elite3.07.03.0(1)

1 this season, 1 last season · last met 174 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Apr 29 '26vs

W7.29595001

Sep 5 '25@

W7.09537311

Griffin Jax

IPERAKHBB

vs CLE1.00.00elite1.02.00.0(1)

last season · last met 410 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 5 '25vs

L1.01812000

home starts4.14.43avg4.34.01.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 20 '26vs

W5.07453200

Sep 15 '26vs

W5.06772000

Sep 2 '26vs

L2.26317266

Trends · CLE

Over / Under

CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CLE are 2-3 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.

Trends · TBR

Over / Under

TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TBR are 1-4 to the over in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
TBR are 0-2 to the over in Griffin Jax's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Dome

Flags · 5

CLE — Gavin Williams: 25 days since last start (2026-09-25) news ↗
CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 74 pitches over 3.1 IP news ↗
CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-09-25: 4 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 12); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
TBR — Griffin Jax: 24 days since last start (2026-09-26) news ↗
TBR — Griffin Jax: last start: 52 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗

Legend · badges & abbreviations

Badges

R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.

Starting pitcher · last 3 starts

xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.

Offense

wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.

Bullpen

2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.

Odds

MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.

Recent-outing table

Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.

Weather and park

APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.