MLB Game Overviews

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Updated 14:56 UTC · Odds Updated 14:55 UTC

AI Picks · 11 Bets · Jul 26
CLE @ TBR u7.0 (-108)
Parker Messick is legitimately elite: xERA 2.73, ERA 1.42, and an extraordinary history vs TBR specifically (3gs, 0.99 ERA, 6.1 IP/gs, 6.3 K/gs). Even accounting for recent ERA creeping to 3.42, his xERA anchors him as a top-tier arm. Rasmussen's xERA 3.83 is average, and his season ERA 9.00 >> xERA 3.83 signals serious bad luck — the real pitcher is better than ERA suggests. CLE offense (wRC+ 123) is decent but TBR offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 144); however, Messick has specifically handled this lineup (0.99 ERA). Both bullpens are strong (CLE xERA 2.60, TBR xERA 3.09). Dome venue eliminates weather risk. CLE is averaging only 2.6 RS in Messick's recent starts. The 7.0 total in a dome with two legitimate pitchers and strong pens provides genuine under value.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
ARI @ WSN o10.0 (-104)
Mikolas is in acute crisis: xERA 5.95, recent ERA 9.00 (last 3 starts), 5.40 ERA vs ARI historically, 10.50 ERA at home this year. ERA way above xERA means genuine struggles, not bad luck. ARI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 135). Drake's ERA 1.80 looks fantastic but xERA 4.95 reveals severe luck gap — season ERA << xERA signals the market is underpricing run risk. Drake's HH% 46% and Barrel% 15% are alarming contact flags with a tiny 5-IP sample. Both bullpens are concerning (WSN xERA 5.12 is a disqualifying-level pen). WSN offense elite vs LHP (wRC+ 137). APF 104 favors offense. WSN averaging 9.0 RS in recent home starts. Multiple over signals align strongly; line at 10.0 is fair value given the matchup.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
TOR @ BOS u8.0 (-104)
Ranger Suarez is elite: xERA 2.60, recent ERA 1.57 HOT (adjusting away the one blowup start — the note explicitly flags the 12-ERA outing as a skew). Suarez has 0.00 ERA in 2 starts vs TOR historically with 8.0 K/gs. TOR offense is genuinely awful vs LHP (wRC+ 58, the worst in today's slate). Gausman's season ERA 6.75 >> xERA 4.84 suggests some bad luck but he's clearly not sharp. However, his history at Fenway (0.00 ERA, 8.0 IP) and vs BOS (2.73 ERA, 8.5 K/gs) provides meaningful context that he can be effective specifically in this matchup. Both bullpens are solid (TOR xERA 3.34, BOS xERA 3.50). BOS pen has been elite in results (ERA 1.66). TOR offense vs LHP being historically bad is the decisive signal — Suarez dominates them for 5-6 innings and the BOS pen locks it down. Total 8.0 at -104 is good value.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
Ranger Suarez o4.5 Ks (+112)
Suarez averages 7.0 K/start over last 3 and has an elite K% of 33.3%. His recent opponents were high-K (COL, WSN, LAA), and the note flags his stats may be inflated — but TOR's K% vs LHP is 22.1%, which is not a severe downgrade. Historical vs TOR: 8.0 K/gs in 2 starts. Adjusted expectation even with a discount comfortably clears 4.5. The line seems undervalued given his K rate and the specific TOR vs LHP weakness. At +112 this is positive EV. Caveat: 21 days since last start and only 53 pitches last outing suggest possible workload management, though he should still get enough innings to eclipse 4.5 Ks.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
ARI Team Total o5.5 (+114)
Miles Mikolas is in acute meltdown: recent ERA 9.00, xERA 5.95, HH% 49%, and a brutal matchup history vs ARI (5.40 ERA, 5.0 IP/gs). ARI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 128 L12). Mikolas has been making only ~5 IP/gs, burned 20 days between starts with recent bullpen appearances, and the WSN pen is at xERA 5.00. ARI has averaged 6.0 RS in Drake's recent starts and are 7-3 away L10. +114 on an elite offense vs a struggling pitcher is genuine value.
Found at 10:56 AM ET
ARI F5 ML (-114)
Drake is HOT (recent ERA 1.80 vs xERA 4.95 — outperforming expectations) while Mikolas is historically brutal in this matchup and currently struggling badly. ARI wRC+ 128 vs RHP, WSN wRC+ 138 vs LHP but Drake's small sample hot streak and command of the matchup tips the F5 to ARI. -114 is within pricing limits and captures the starter-driven edge before WSN bullpen matters.
Found at 10:56 AM ET
BOS ML (-136)
Ranger Suarez is elite (xERA 2.60) and blazing hot (recent ERA 1.57, averaging 7 Ks/start). His matchup history vs TOR is dominant: 0.00 ERA in 2 starts, 8.0 K/gs. TOR offense vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 60 L12), and TOR is 0-5 in their last 5 SP starts averaging only 2.4 RS. BOS bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.00). The note about Suarez's last start being 53 pitches warrants monitoring pitch count, but his 21-day layoff + the skewed ERA note suggest the other two recent starts (1.57 ERA ex-bad outing) are more representative. -136 is within range for this compound pitching + offense edge.
Found at 10:56 AM ET
J. Misiorowski o8.5 Ks (+116)
Misiorowski is extraordinary: xERA 1.47 (elite), K% 42.9% (exceptional), recent ERA 2.12 averaging 8.3 K/start. His K opponents recently — CIN (22.7% K), CHC (25.3% K), ATL (23.1% K) — are all average to above average. COL K% vs RHP is 20.4%, which is a slight downgrade from recent opponents, so we reduce expected Ks slightly to ~7.5-8.0. The line is 8.5. That's borderline, but at +116 this is positive expected value — we need him to hit ~8 Ks to be roughly break-even and his ceiling is clearly 10+. Flags: his last start was only 65 pitches (short outing concern) but he went 6.0 IP in that start, suggesting it was an intentional pitch count limit. Given xERA 1.47 and K% 42.9%, this is his floor performance level. COL is a poor offense (wRC+ 74) that compounds the strikeout upside.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
CIN @ STL u8.5 (-105)
Kyle Leahy is elite and HOT: xERA 2.17, recent ERA 0.56 (3 starts), season ERA 0.64 — and crucially, xERA actually confirms this isn't luck. ERA < xERA slightly here but the xERA itself is elite so the pitcher is genuine. Leahy at home this year: 0.64 ERA in 3gs. Andrew Abbott has elite xERA 2.85 despite season ERA 3.94 — xERA >> ERA confirms the elevated ERA is bad luck, not a real issue. Abbott historically vs STL: 3.33 ERA, 5.4 IP/gs. Both offenses are merely average in L12 (CIN wRC+ 109, STL wRC+ 99 vs LHP). CIN has been averaging only 2.6 RS in Abbott's recent starts; STL averaging 2.4 RS. CIN pen xERA 2.89 is excellent despite ERA 5.22 (pen ERA appears to be a small-sample anomaly given the excellent xERA). Two legitimate starters facing average offenses in a neutral park. Line at 8.5 offers solid under value.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
STL Team Total u4.5 (-128)
Andrew Abbott is elite (xERA 2.85) with strong matchup history vs STL (3.33 ERA, 5.4 IP/gs, 5.7 K/gs over 3 starts) and at Busch Stadium (3.21 ERA). STL offense vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 75 L12, K% 27.9%). STL has averaged only 2.4 RS in Leahy's recent starts. Abbott's recent ERA (4.47) is skewed by one bad outing; his xERA of 2.85 and venue/opponent history give high confidence he suppresses this lineup. -128 is fair price for this edge.
Found at 10:56 AM ET
Logan Gilbert o6.5 Ks (-110)
Gilbert is elite and locked in: xERA 2.84, recent ERA 2.23, averaging 7.3 K/start over last 3. K% of 28.9% is excellent. TEX K% vs RHP is 23.9% — above average, favorable for strikeouts. His recent K opponents included TOR (low-K), CLE (avg-K), and BOS (avg-K), so the 7.3 K average isn't inflated by facing strikeout-prone lineups. Adjusted expectation of ~7.0+ K comfortably exceeds the 6.5 line. He averages 6.7 IP/gs, giving him the innings to accumulate strikeouts. The Outs line at 17.5 at -157 confirms the market expects a long outing. At -110 for K Over 6.5, this is solid value — the line appears slightly underpriced given his K rate, the favorable matchup, and his deep-start tendencies.
Found at 5:33 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CLE @ TBR
12:15 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Parker Messick L
xERA2.73 (elite)K%17.0 (avg)HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA1.42IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs2.5PC/gs93BB%8.5
TBR vs LHP
wRC+153 (elite)K%16.5 (above avg)HH%33.6 (below avg)
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA3.83 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA9.00IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs77BB%5.0
CLE vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+108+1.5 (-215)O7.0 (-105)TBR-125-1.5 (+176)U7.0 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+112+0.5 (-144)O3.5 (-120)TBR-125-0.5 (+110)U3.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCLEO3.5 (+110)U3.5 (-135)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)TBRO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-130)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UParker Messick4.5 (-125 / +102)17.5 (-128 / -102)Drew Rasmussen4.5 (-159 / +124)17.5 (-120 / +106)
Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs MINW5.28864012
Jul 10@ MIAW6.09111411
Jul 4vs CHWL5.010035311
Jun 29vs TEXL6.28358044
Jun 23@ CHWL7.295103122
Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@ TORW5.09357122
Jul 9vs NYYL2.16127066
Jul 4@ HOUL5.07726155
Jun 28vs ARIW6.09953100
Jun 22vs KCRL6.09054222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.10.996.35.00.7(3)
at TBR6.01.504.08.00.0(1)
Drew Rasmussen
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.32.254.34.31.7(3)
home starts4.75.114.04.71.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.46 (elite)ERA 3.682d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 3.16 (good)ERA 2.312d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Dome
Flags · 4
  • TBR — Drew Rasmussen: small sample (8.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • CLE bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TBR — Drew Rasmussen: recent opponents low-K: HOU 19%, TOR 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
CLE @ TBR u7.0 (-108)
Parker Messick is legitimately elite: xERA 2.73, ERA 1.42, and an extraordinary history vs TBR specifically (3gs, 0.99 ERA, 6.1 IP/gs, 6.3 K/gs). Even accounting for recent ERA creeping to 3.42, his xERA anchors him as a top-tier arm. Rasmussen's xERA 3.83 is average, and his season ERA 9.00 >> xERA 3.83 signals serious bad luck — the real pitcher is better than ERA suggests. CLE offense (wRC+ 123) is decent but TBR offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 144); however, Messick has specifically handled this lineup (0.99 ERA). Both bullpens are strong (CLE xERA 2.60, TBR xERA 3.09). Dome venue eliminates weather risk. CLE is averaging only 2.6 RS in Messick's recent starts. The 7.0 total in a dome with two legitimate pitchers and strong pens provides genuine under value.
ARI @ WSN
1:35 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kohl Drake L
xERA4.95 (below avg)K%23.8 (good)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%15.4 (poor)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs85BB%9.5
WSN vs LHP
wRC+138 (elite)K%26.6 (below avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Miles Mikolas R
xERA5.95 (poor)K%6.7 (poor)HH%49.1 (poor)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA6.59IP/gs13.7 IP/gsH/gs19.0PC/gs75BB%5.0
ARI vs RHP
wRC+128 (above avg)K%21.0 (avg)HH%40.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-115-1.5 (+132)O10.0 (-110)WSN+100+1.5 (-156)U10.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-114-0.5 (+116)O5.5 (-114)WSN-110+0.5 (-152)U5.5 (-114)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO5.5 (+114)U5.5 (-135)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)WSNO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKohl Drake3.5 (-128 / +105)14.5 (-128 / +110)Miles Mikolas
Kohl Drake · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs ATHW5.08554211
Miles Mikolas · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@ COLL3.2*6616033
Jul 11vs NYYL4.0*5904100
Jul 6vs HOUW6.09939277
Jun 29@ BOSL7.09739066
Jun 24vs PHIL3.1*6015002
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Miles Mikolas
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.05.403.54.01.5(2)
home starts6.010.503.09.02.0(1)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 3.422d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 5.00 (below avg)ERA 4.562d stress Stressed (7.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 2 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
  • ARI — Kohl Drake: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • ARI — Kohl Drake: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • ARI — Kohl Drake: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • WSN — Miles Mikolas: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.00 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • WSN bullpen stressed (7.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • WSN — Miles Mikolas: 20 days since last start (2026-07-06) — may not be fully stretched out
  • WSN — Miles Mikolas: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21, 2026-07-11 — may affect pitch count or availability
ARI @ WSN o10.0 (-104)
Mikolas is in acute crisis: xERA 5.95, recent ERA 9.00 (last 3 starts), 5.40 ERA vs ARI historically, 10.50 ERA at home this year. ERA way above xERA means genuine struggles, not bad luck. ARI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 135). Drake's ERA 1.80 looks fantastic but xERA 4.95 reveals severe luck gap — season ERA << xERA signals the market is underpricing run risk. Drake's HH% 46% and Barrel% 15% are alarming contact flags with a tiny 5-IP sample. Both bullpens are concerning (WSN xERA 5.12 is a disqualifying-level pen). WSN offense elite vs LHP (wRC+ 137). APF 104 favors offense. WSN averaging 9.0 RS in recent home starts. Multiple over signals align strongly; line at 10.0 is fair value given the matchup.
ARI Team Total o5.5 (+114)
Miles Mikolas is in acute meltdown: recent ERA 9.00, xERA 5.95, HH% 49%, and a brutal matchup history vs ARI (5.40 ERA, 5.0 IP/gs). ARI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 128 L12). Mikolas has been making only ~5 IP/gs, burned 20 days between starts with recent bullpen appearances, and the WSN pen is at xERA 5.00. ARI has averaged 6.0 RS in Drake's recent starts and are 7-3 away L10. +114 on an elite offense vs a struggling pitcher is genuine value.
ARI F5 ML (-114)
Drake is HOT (recent ERA 1.80 vs xERA 4.95 — outperforming expectations) while Mikolas is historically brutal in this matchup and currently struggling badly. ARI wRC+ 128 vs RHP, WSN wRC+ 138 vs LHP but Drake's small sample hot streak and command of the matchup tips the F5 to ARI. -114 is within pricing limits and captures the starter-driven edge before WSN bullpen matters.
ATL @ BAL
1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Reynaldo Lopez R
xERA5.09 (below avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%13.6 (below avg)ERA6.28IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs83BB%9.4
BAL vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%23.1 (avg)HH%40.1 (above avg)
Shane Baz R
xERA2.78 (elite)K%24.7 (good)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%3.9 (elite)ERA3.24IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs94BB%4.1
ATL vs RHP
wRC+157 (elite)K%22.6 (avg)HH%44.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-108-1.5 (+149)O9.0 (-101)BAL-105+1.5 (-176)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-105+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-130)BAL-118-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATLO4.5 (+104)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)BALO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UReynaldo Lopez5.5 (+128 / +130)14.5 (-175 / +131)Shane Baz5.5 (+122 / -141)17.5 (-158 / +131)
Reynaldo Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs SDPL4.18569355
Jul 11@ STLL5.08535144
Jul 6vs NYML5.08053211
Jul 1vs STLW5.06962111
Jun 26@ SFGW3.05714011
Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ BOSL6.07766014
Jul 12vs KCRW4.210498022
Jul 7vs CHCL6.010036333
Jun 29vs CHWL7.010964422
Jun 23@ LAAL5.09158155
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Baz
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL
home starts5.73.666.06.02.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 4.442d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 1.73 (elite)ERA 1.292d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph ESE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • BAL — Shane Baz: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • ATL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-21 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: 2026-07-21: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • BAL — Shane Baz: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Baz is elite by xERA (2.78) but struggling recently (5.00 ERA last 3) with a 77-pitch last start concern; Lopez is HOT (recent ERA 2.08) but his small sample note and Barrel% flags create risk; BAL bullpen is outstanding (xERA 1.73) but total sits at only 8.5/9.0 — market already prices in the mixed signals; no clean edge.
TOR @ BOS
1:35 PM · Fenway ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kevin Gausman R
xERA4.84 (below avg)K%23.6 (good)HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA6.75IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%13.9
BOS vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Ranger Suarez L
xERA2.60 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)HH%23.8 (elite)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA4.30IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs83BB%3.0
TOR vs LHP
wRC+60 (poor)K%21.6 (avg)HH%40.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+118+1.5 (-185)O7.5 (-110)BOS-136-1.5 (+157)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+116+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (+116)BOS-135-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTORO3.5 (-110)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)BOSO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+118)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKevin Gausman5.5 (+116 / -130)17.5 (-132 / +125)Ranger Suarez4.5 (+107 / -128)14.5 (-160 / +126)
Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs TBRL3.19019245
Jul 12@ SDPL6.010384333
Jul 6@ SFGL5.19285547
Jun 30vs NYML6.09675211
Jun 25vs TEXL6.099410266
Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@ LAAW2.25356033
Jun 29vs WSNW6.09585133
Jun 24@ COLL6.010297113
Jun 19@ SEAW6.29451300
Jun 13vs TEXW5.09776222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kevin Gausman
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS6.62.738.56.50.5(2)
at BOS8.00.0010.04.00.0(1)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR7.50.008.03.01.0(2)
home starts5.35.626.35.72.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.22 (good)ERA 4.702d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 1.632d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph ENE
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 8
  • TOR — Kevin Gausman: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • TOR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • BOS bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TOR — Kevin Gausman: low-K outing 2026-07-21 (1 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
  • BOS — Ranger Suarez: 21 days since last start (2026-07-05) — may not be fully stretched out
  • BOS — Ranger Suarez: last start: 53 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-07-05: 3 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • BOS — Ranger Suarez: recent opponents high-K: WSN 27%, LAA 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
TOR @ BOS u8.0 (-104)
Ranger Suarez is elite: xERA 2.60, recent ERA 1.57 HOT (adjusting away the one blowup start — the note explicitly flags the 12-ERA outing as a skew). Suarez has 0.00 ERA in 2 starts vs TOR historically with 8.0 K/gs. TOR offense is genuinely awful vs LHP (wRC+ 58, the worst in today's slate). Gausman's season ERA 6.75 >> xERA 4.84 suggests some bad luck but he's clearly not sharp. However, his history at Fenway (0.00 ERA, 8.0 IP) and vs BOS (2.73 ERA, 8.5 K/gs) provides meaningful context that he can be effective specifically in this matchup. Both bullpens are solid (TOR xERA 3.34, BOS xERA 3.50). BOS pen has been elite in results (ERA 1.66). TOR offense vs LHP being historically bad is the decisive signal — Suarez dominates them for 5-6 innings and the BOS pen locks it down. Total 8.0 at -104 is good value.
Ranger Suarez o4.5 Ks (+112)
Suarez averages 7.0 K/start over last 3 and has an elite K% of 33.3%. His recent opponents were high-K (COL, WSN, LAA), and the note flags his stats may be inflated — but TOR's K% vs LHP is 22.1%, which is not a severe downgrade. Historical vs TOR: 8.0 K/gs in 2 starts. Adjusted expectation even with a discount comfortably clears 4.5. The line seems undervalued given his K rate and the specific TOR vs LHP weakness. At +112 this is positive EV. Caveat: 21 days since last start and only 53 pitches last outing suggest possible workload management, though he should still get enough innings to eclipse 4.5 Ks.
BOS ML (-136)
Ranger Suarez is elite (xERA 2.60) and blazing hot (recent ERA 1.57, averaging 7 Ks/start). His matchup history vs TOR is dominant: 0.00 ERA in 2 starts, 8.0 K/gs. TOR offense vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 60 L12), and TOR is 0-5 in their last 5 SP starts averaging only 2.4 RS. BOS bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.00). The note about Suarez's last start being 53 pitches warrants monitoring pitch count, but his 21-day layoff + the skewed ERA note suggest the other two recent starts (1.57 ERA ex-bad outing) are more representative. -136 is within range for this compound pitching + offense edge.
CHC @ PIT
1:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jameson Taillon R
xERA4.45 (avg)K%26.4 (good)HH%44.1 (below avg)Barrel%11.8 (below avg)ERA5.40IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs70BB%9.4
PIT vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%30.6 (poor)HH%44.8 (above avg)
Braxton Ashcraft R
xERA6.72 (poor)K%23.1 (good)HH%55.6 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA8.56IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%7.7
CHC vs RHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+112+1.5 (-185)O9.0 (+100)PIT-125-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC+120+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-118)PIT-150-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHCO4.5 (+105)U3.5 (+114)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)PITO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJameson Taillon4.5 (-115 / -101)15.5 (+112 / -145)Braxton Ashcraft5.5 (-130 / +118)16.5 (-105 / -110)
Jameson Taillon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs DETL4.17565244
Jun 7vs SFGL1.03522211
Jun 2vs ATHL6.19966122
May 27@ PITW5.07545244
May 22vs HOUL4.29058144
Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ NYYL3.07429178
Jul 11vs MILW5.09865255
Jul 4@ WSNW5.29476211
Jun 29@ PHIW6.09785155
Jun 24vs SEAW6.086105011
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jameson Taillon
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.75.295.74.32.0(3)
at PIT5.53.273.53.52.0(2)
Braxton Ashcraft
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.02.986.05.71.3(3)
home starts5.34.506.75.01.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.29 (avg)ERA 3.262d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 5.17 (below avg)ERA 4.502d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 4 mph WNW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 9
  • CHC — Jameson Taillon: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHC — Jameson Taillon: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
  • PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • PIT bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHC — Jameson Taillon: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: low-K outing 2026-07-20 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
AI Analysis
Both starters are short-outing types with elevated recent ERAs and multiple flags (Taillon 3.9 IP/gs avg, Ashcraft 74-pitch last start); PIT bullpen is poor (xERA 5.17) but total at 8.5/9.0 already reflects the volatility — both pens are shaky, no dominant directional edge on the number.
KCR @ DET
1:40 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Luinder Avila R
xERA4.41 (avg)K%20.9 (avg)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA3.31IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs84BB%7.5
DET vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%23.1 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)
Framber Valdez L
xERA3.69 (good)K%17.7 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA8.53IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs72BB%6.5
KCR vs LHP
wRC+79 (poor)K%28.0 (poor)HH%26.9 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+160+1.5 (-125)O9.0 (-106)DET-190-1.5 (+108)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+150+0.5 (+104)O5.5 (+112)DET-192-0.5 (-135)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-105)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)DETO4.5 (-132)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-130)U2.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULuinder Avila4.5 (+125 / +120)15.5 (+113 / -151)Framber Valdez4.5 (-138 / +109)18.5 (+107 / +155)
Luinder Avila · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs SFGW6.18775122
Jul 10@ BALL5.09637333
Jul 5vs PHIW5.06943111
Jun 28@ CHWW4.08646344
Jun 23@ TBRW5.08763411
Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@ CHCL0.24215266
Jul 9vs ATHW7.08793011
Jul 2@ TEXL5.08719255
Jun 27vs HOUL6.08829044
Jun 22vs NYYW6.09484211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR7.71.574.34.31.7(3)
home starts6.32.846.35.30.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.91 (below avg)ERA 6.022d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 2.952d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • KCR bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • DET bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • DET — Framber Valdez: last start: 42 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • DET — Framber Valdez: high-K outing 2026-07-09 (9 Ks vs avg 3.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
AI Analysis
Framber Valdez is struggling recently (5.29 ERA last 3) but has a dominant history vs KCR (1.57 ERA, 7.7 IP/gs); DET bullpen is fresh (1.7 IP flag means early hook risk); KCR bullpen is poor (xERA 4.91); ML is -190 for DET which exceeds pricing limit; no bet within acceptable odds.
LAD @ NYM
1:40 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Emmet Sheehan R
xERA2.77 (elite)K%27.7 (good)HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA5.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%7.7
NYM vs RHP
wRC+117 (above avg)K%23.7 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.76 (avg)K%25.7 (good)HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA6.28IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs101BB%11.4
LAD vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%25.4 (below avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-146-1.5 (+111)O9.0 (-102)NYM+132+1.5 (-122)U9.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-152-0.5 (-113)O5.5 (+110)NYM+122+0.5 (-115)U5.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (-102)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)NYMO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+102)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEmmet Sheehan5.5 (-128 / +105)16.5 (-104 / -102)Freddy Peralta5.5 (+110 / -138)15.5 (+130 / -154)
Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ PHIL5.18768166
Jul 12vs ARIL5.110173123
Jul 5vs SDPL4.19653311
Jun 28@ SDPW5.08452211
Jun 21vs BALL3.18248366
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ MILL5.110768277
Jul 11vs BOSL4.19263522
Jul 6@ ATLW4.210366113
Jul 1@ TORL4.09147355
Jun 25vs CHCL5.29855103
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.53.275.55.02.0(2)
home starts4.81.894.34.02.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 4.31 (avg)ERA 4.232d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.80 (avg)ERA 3.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph NNE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • LAD bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • LAD — Emmet Sheehan: 2026-07-20: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • NYM — Freddy Peralta: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • NYM — Freddy Peralta: 2026-07-20: 7 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Sheehan is elite by xERA (2.77) but struggling recently (recent ERA 5.90, though one bad outing is skewing it); Peralta has a mixed recent profile; LAD ML is -146 which exceeds -150 threshold, and the overall matchup signals are muddled with both offenses mediocre in L12.
SDP @ MIA
1:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Walker Buehler R
xERA3.51 (good)K%13.1 (below avg)HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA9.24IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs83BB%16.4
MIA vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%40.9 (above avg)
Janson Junk R
xERA4.55 (below avg)K%17.5 (avg)HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA5.14IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs84BB%11.1
SDP vs RHP
wRC+141 (elite)K%20.1 (avg)HH%47.5 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+112+1.5 (-185)O8.5 (-115)MIA-125-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+110+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-140)MIA-135-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+112)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)MIAO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalker Buehler4.5 (+131 / -164)14.5 (-152 / +115)Janson Junk3.5 (-142 / +116)15.5 (+101 / -130)
Walker Buehler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@ ATLW5.29032522
Jul 11vs TORW2.06513444
Jul 6vs ARIL5.09347177
Jul 1@ CHCL4.08567499
Jun 26vs LADW5.17453311
Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ HOUL4.08035366
Jul 9vs SEAW5.07953412
May 25@ TORW5.09338011
May 20vs ATLL5.08638088
May 15@ TBRL5.2100410377
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Walker Buehler
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.00.002.03.03.0(1)
at MIA
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP
home starts5.37.314.76.02.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.21 (elite)ERA 4.072d stress Stressed (6.7 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 4.79 (below avg)ERA 5.082d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
  • SDP — Walker Buehler: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • SDP bullpen stressed (6.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • MIA bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • MIA — Janson Junk: 2026-07-20: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • MIA — Janson Junk: recent opponents low-K: TOR 15%, SEA 18%, HOU 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Rain risk 13% is a disqualifying flag for this game — no bets on any game with meaningful precipitation risk.
ATH @ MIN
2:10 PM · Target FieldHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jeffrey Springs L
xERA5.64 (poor)K%11.3 (poor)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.0 (below avg)ERA8.59IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs87BB%12.7
MIN vs LHP
wRC+84 (below avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Connor Prielipp L
xERA3.99 (avg)K%26.0 (good)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA4.24IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs91BB%6.5
ATH vs LHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%19.1 (above avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+136+1.5 (-150)O10.0 (-105)MIN-162-1.5 (+130)U9.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+130+0.5 (-113)O5.5 (-113)MIN-158-0.5 (-115)U5.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)MINO5.5 (+108)U5.5 (-135)O2.5 (-135)U2.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJeffrey Springs4.5 (+131 / +124)15.5 (+114 / -146)Connor Prielipp4.5 (+114 / -127)
Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ ARIW5.07826122
Jul 8@ DETL4.19246466
Jun 30vs LADL5.19228466
Jun 25@ SFGW5.18763233
Jun 19vs LAAW3.28644466
Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8vs CLEW5.08364233
Jun 28vs COLW6.093106022
Jun 19@ ARIL6.09749336
Jun 13vs STLL6.09827244
Jun 7vs KCRL4.17774122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Connor Prielipp
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH
home starts5.74.766.05.71.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 6.14 (poor)ERA 9.002d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 2.94 (elite)ERA 2.282d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
95°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SSW
APF 109 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
  • ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • ATH — Jeffrey Springs: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 6.14 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • ATH bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • ATH — Jeffrey Springs: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • MIN — Connor Prielipp: 18 days since last start (2026-07-08) — may not be fully stretched out
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 109) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling (Springs recent ERA 10.07, Prielipp recent ERA 5.03), but ATH bullpen is a catastrophic xERA 6.14 disqualifying the full-game side, and both offenses are cold vs LHP (wRC+ 93 and 84); total already at 10.0/9.5 which prices in the bad starters — no clear mispriced edge.
HOU @ CHW
2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ronel Blanco R
xERA5.89 (poor)K%42.1 (elite)HH%62.5 (poor)Barrel%25.0 (poor)ERA7.71IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs86BB%15.8
CHW vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%23.1 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Erick Fedde R
xERA3.49 (good)K%24.1 (good)HH%51.3 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)ERA2.70IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs69BB%3.7
HOU vs RHP
wRC+120 (above avg)K%18.6 (above avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU-110-1.5 (+145)O9.5 (+100)CHW-106+1.5 (-162)U9.0 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-112+0.5 (-156)O5.5 (+102)CHW-112-0.5 (+120)U5.5 (-132)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UHOUO4.5 (-118)U4.5 (-108)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)CHWO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URonel Blanco5.5 (+124 / -136)15.5 (-121 / -108)Erick Fedde3.5 (+128 / -136)
Ronel Blanco · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs MIAW4.28682344
Erick Fedde · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ TEXW4.06464022
Jul 11vs ATHW4.0*5532100
Jul 5@ CLEW5.1*8948123
Jun 30@ BALW5.09035333
Jun 24vs CLEL4.0*7525312
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Erick Fedde
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.01.505.06.03.0(1)
home starts
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.55 (good)ERA 3.402d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 2.642d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
86°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 7 mph E
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
  • HOU — Ronel Blanco: small sample (4.2 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • HOU — Ronel Blanco: HH% 62% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • HOU — Ronel Blanco: Barrel% 25% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • HOU — Ronel Blanco: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • CHW — Erick Fedde: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • HOU bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHW bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CHW — Erick Fedde: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • CHW — Erick Fedde: last start: 64 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Blanco is a massive red flag — small sample, HH% 62%, Barrel% 25%, BB% 16%, recent ERA 8.57 — but that's only 1 start. Fedde is struggling recently too but has a solid xERA (3.49); total at 9.5 reflects the risk; offenses both average to above-average but no clean under or over with enough aligned signals.
COL @ MIL
2:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Freeland L
xERA4.69 (below avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%12.3 (below avg)ERA7.41IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs85BB%2.7
MIL vs LHP
wRC+49 (poor)K%16.7 (above avg)HH%30.0 (below avg)
J. Misiorowski R
xERA1.47 (elite)K%42.9 (elite)HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA2.25IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs83BB%1.6
COL vs RHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%20.1 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+275+1.5 (+131)O7.5 (-118)MIL-335-1.5 (-154)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+275+1.5 (-120)O3.5 (-140)MIL-360-1.5 (-108)U3.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCOLO2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-120)O0.5 (-175)U0.5 (+135)MILO4.5 (-130)U4.5 (+110)O2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Freeland4.5 (+115 / -132)15.5 (-118 / -103)J. Misiorowski8.5 (+102 / -117)14.5 (-200 / +140)
Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs WSNL6.09147244
Jul 11@ SFGL6.09296044
Jul 6@ LADL5.07229066
Jul 1vs MIAW5.08576122
Jun 24vs BOSW6.081411166
J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs NYMW4.06564101
Jul 7@ STLW7.0103113033
Jul 2vs CINL5.082105015
Jun 26vs CHCW6.010782411
Jun 19@ ATLL6.09175122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.08.343.07.71.3(3)
at MIL4.013.502.08.03.0(1)
J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs COL7.00.008.04.03.0(1)
home starts5.01.208.03.71.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.85 (below avg)ERA 4.842d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 4.312d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph ESE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • COL — Kyle Freeland: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • COL — Kyle Freeland: low-K outing 2026-07-06 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
  • COL — Kyle Freeland: high-K outing 2026-07-11 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
  • COL — Kyle Freeland: recent opponents high-K: SFG 28%, WSN 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • MIL — J. Misiorowski: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
J. Misiorowski o8.5 Ks (+116)
Misiorowski is extraordinary: xERA 1.47 (elite), K% 42.9% (exceptional), recent ERA 2.12 averaging 8.3 K/start. His K opponents recently — CIN (22.7% K), CHC (25.3% K), ATL (23.1% K) — are all average to above average. COL K% vs RHP is 20.4%, which is a slight downgrade from recent opponents, so we reduce expected Ks slightly to ~7.5-8.0. The line is 8.5. That's borderline, but at +116 this is positive expected value — we need him to hit ~8 Ks to be roughly break-even and his ceiling is clearly 10+. Flags: his last start was only 65 pitches (short outing concern) but he went 6.0 IP in that start, suggesting it was an intentional pitch count limit. Given xERA 1.47 and K% 42.9%, this is his floor performance level. COL is a poor offense (wRC+ 74) that compounds the strikeout upside.
CIN @ STL
2:15 PM · Busch StadiumHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Andrew Abbott L
xERA2.85 (elite)K%25.8 (good)HH%31.8 (good)Barrel%4.5 (elite)ERA3.94IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs91BB%7.6
STL vs LHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%27.9 (below avg)HH%41.3 (above avg)
Kyle Leahy R
xERA2.17 (elite)K%24.0 (good)HH%51.4 (poor)Barrel%2.9 (elite)ERA0.64IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs72BB%4.0
CIN vs RHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%20.2 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+116+1.5 (-185)O8.5 (-114)STL-134-1.5 (+155)U8.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+106+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-135)STL-130-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCINO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+130)U2.5 (-166)STLO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-128)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Abbott3.5 (-140 / +116)17.5 (-105 / +104)Kyle Leahy4.5 (-103 / -122)16.5 (+106 / -131)
Andrew Abbott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ SEAL6.010064201
Jul 12vs CHCL4.07934344
Jul 7vs PHIL6.09585033
Jul 1@ MILL5.09635522
Jun 26@ PITW5.19466134
Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ LAAL6.09543011
Jul 10vs ATLW3.04421000
Jul 4@ CHCW5.07763200
Jun 28vs MIAW5.08752311
Jun 23vs ARIL6.18533200
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Abbott
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.43.335.75.01.3(3)
at STL5.63.215.06.00.0(2)
Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.58.004.56.02.0(2)
home starts4.70.643.32.01.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 2.85 (elite)ERA 4.932d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 4.73 (below avg)ERA 4.582d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
97°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 4 mph W
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • STL — Kyle Leahy: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • CIN — Andrew Abbott: 2026-07-12: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CIN — Andrew Abbott: recent opponents high-K: PHI 28%, SEA 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
CIN @ STL u8.5 (-105)
Kyle Leahy is elite and HOT: xERA 2.17, recent ERA 0.56 (3 starts), season ERA 0.64 — and crucially, xERA actually confirms this isn't luck. ERA < xERA slightly here but the xERA itself is elite so the pitcher is genuine. Leahy at home this year: 0.64 ERA in 3gs. Andrew Abbott has elite xERA 2.85 despite season ERA 3.94 — xERA >> ERA confirms the elevated ERA is bad luck, not a real issue. Abbott historically vs STL: 3.33 ERA, 5.4 IP/gs. Both offenses are merely average in L12 (CIN wRC+ 109, STL wRC+ 99 vs LHP). CIN has been averaging only 2.6 RS in Abbott's recent starts; STL averaging 2.4 RS. CIN pen xERA 2.89 is excellent despite ERA 5.22 (pen ERA appears to be a small-sample anomaly given the excellent xERA). Two legitimate starters facing average offenses in a neutral park. Line at 8.5 offers solid under value.
STL Team Total u4.5 (-128)
Andrew Abbott is elite (xERA 2.85) with strong matchup history vs STL (3.33 ERA, 5.4 IP/gs, 5.7 K/gs over 3 starts) and at Busch Stadium (3.21 ERA). STL offense vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 75 L12, K% 27.9%). STL has averaged only 2.4 RS in Leahy's recent starts. Abbott's recent ERA (4.47) is skewed by one bad outing; his xERA of 2.85 and venue/opponent history give high confidence he suppresses this lineup. -128 is fair price for this edge.
SEA @ TEX
2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Gilbert R
xERA2.84 (elite)K%28.9 (elite)HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA3.15IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs94BB%4.0
TEX vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%23.4 (avg)HH%35.9 (avg)
Jacob deGrom R
xERA3.09 (good)K%31.9 (elite)HH%55.8 (poor)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)ERA4.86IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91BB%5.8
SEA vs RHP
wRC+67 (poor)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-106-1.5 (+168)O7.0 (-115)TEX-110+1.5 (-200)U7.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-105+0.5 (-164)O3.5 (-118)TEX-118-0.5 (+125)U3.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO3.5 (-108)U3.5 (-118)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)TEXO3.5 (+104)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Gilbert6.5 (-105 / -115)17.5 (-158 / +122)Jacob deGrom7.5 (+128 / -150)17.5 (-163 / +135)
Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19vs SFGW6.095104133
Jul 11@ TBRL6.29659244
Jul 4vs TORW7.19171000
Jun 27@ CLEL7.010377044
Jun 21vs BOSW6.19483211
Jacob deGrom · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs CHWL4.29767255
Jul 7vs LAAW5.08075222
Jun 30@ CLEW7.09694022
Jun 24@ MIAL6.09184222
Jun 19vs SDPW6.010696366
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Gilbert
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.73.686.36.00.3(3)
at TEX5.54.866.05.50.5(2)
Jacob deGrom
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.73.864.73.02.0(3)
home starts5.17.707.36.02.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 4.192d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 6.462d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
  • TEX — Jacob deGrom: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • TEX — Jacob deGrom: 2026-07-20: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Logan Gilbert o6.5 Ks (-110)
Gilbert is elite and locked in: xERA 2.84, recent ERA 2.23, averaging 7.3 K/start over last 3. K% of 28.9% is excellent. TEX K% vs RHP is 23.9% — above average, favorable for strikeouts. His recent K opponents included TOR (low-K), CLE (avg-K), and BOS (avg-K), so the 7.3 K average isn't inflated by facing strikeout-prone lineups. Adjusted expectation of ~7.0+ K comfortably exceeds the 6.5 line. He averages 6.7 IP/gs, giving him the innings to accumulate strikeouts. The Outs line at 17.5 at -157 confirms the market expects a long outing. At -110 for K Over 6.5, this is solid value — the line appears slightly underpriced given his K rate, the favorable matchup, and his deep-start tendencies.
LAA @ SFG
4:05 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jose Soriano R
xERA4.03 (avg)K%16.2 (below avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA3.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs88BB%7.3
SFG vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%23.1 (avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
C. Whisenhunt L
xERA4.92 (below avg)K%13.0 (below avg)HH%41.2 (below avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA3.38IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs86BB%13.0
LAA vs LHP
wRC+138 (elite)K%31.6 (poor)HH%36.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA-110-1.5 (+151)O8.5 (-105)SFG-105+1.5 (-180)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-118)SFG-114-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULAAO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)SFGO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJose Soriano4.5 (-150 / +118)17.5 (-105 / -118)C. Whisenhunt4.5 (+102 / -116)14.5 (-166 / +126)
Jose Soriano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs STLW7.09574122
Jul 12@ MINL5.07705233
Jul 7@ TEXL6.09342222
Jun 30@ SEAL5.09196133
Jun 24vs BALW3.06946255
C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 9vs COLW5.28743422
Jun 17@ ATLW5.08526222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
C. Whisenhunt
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA
home starts4.75.074.04.33.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.04 (good)ERA 2.222d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 3.682d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Windy
67°F, Clear, Wind 19 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • SFG — C. Whisenhunt: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • LAA bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SFG bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SFG — C. Whisenhunt: 17 days since last start (2026-07-09) — may not be fully stretched out
  • WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 19 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
AI Analysis
19mph wind blowing out at Oracle Park is a significant factor, but Whisenhunt has a 17-day layoff and BB% 13%; Soriano is struggling (recent ERA 6.43); LAA offense is elite vs LHP (wRC+ 138) and SFG bullpen is elite (xERA 2.37); however both lines and totals reflect the weather — 8.5 total with blowing-out wind is not obviously mispriced enough for a strong play.
NYY @ PHI
7:20 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Will Warren R
xERA8.40 (poor)K%13.6 (below avg)HH%53.1 (poor)Barrel%6.2 (good)ERA6.52IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs58BB%11.4
PHI vs RHP
wRC+66 (poor)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%44.5 (above avg)
C. Sanchez L
xERA2.94 (elite)K%25.8 (good)HH%41.5 (below avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA5.40IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs95BB%4.8
NYY vs LHP
wRC+63 (poor)K%28.3 (poor)HH%34.1 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+162+1.5 (-134)O8.0 (-105)PHI-184-1.5 (+120)U8.0 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+165+0.5 (+102)O4.5 (-102)PHI-198-0.5 (-132)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO3.5 (+106)U3.5 (-135)O1.5 (+105)U1.5 (-135)PHIO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-125)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWill Warren4.5 (+110 / -140)14.5 (-120 / -105)C. Sanchez7.5 (+106 / -116)19.5 (+102 / -102)
Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs PITW0.2*1611100
Jul 12@ WSNW5.08324211
Jul 7@ TBRL4.07537266
Jul 1vs DETL5.17975022
Jun 26@ BOSL5.29007355
C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs LADW5.19977023
Jul 11@ DETW7.0103710122
Jul 6@ KCRL3.183112199
Jun 30vs PITW7.09293200
Jun 25@ WSNW5.09267155
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Will Warren
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.23.467.05.03.0(1)
at PHI
C. Sanchez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY
home starts6.01.497.05.01.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 2.582d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 4.462d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 6 mph S
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
  • NYY — Will Warren: HH% 53% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • NYY bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • PHI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • NYY — Will Warren: 14 days since last start (2026-07-12) — may not be fully stretched out
  • NYY — Will Warren: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • NYY — Will Warren: 2026-07-07: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • PHI — C. Sanchez: 2026-07-06: 9 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 26) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • PHI — C. Sanchez: low-K outing 2026-07-06 (1 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
  • PHI — C. Sanchez: recent opponents high-K: KCR 28%, DET 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Both starters are deeply concerning — Warren has xERA 8.40 (disqualifying-level poor) and Sanchez's recent ERA is skewed by one disaster; both offenses are cold (NYY wRC+ 63, PHI wRC+ 66 vs RHP); both bullpens are fresh meaning early hooks possible; total at 8.0 may be appropriate given cold offenses and uncertain pitching — too many conflicting signals for a confident play.