AI Picks · 16 Bets · Jul 1
PIT @ PHI u8.0 (-108)
Elite ace matchup with a line that hasn't moved far enough down. Wheeler: xERA 2.14, recent ERA 1.42, 7.3 K/start, 0.00 ERA vs PIT in 2 career starts, 1.98 ERA at home. Skenes: xERA 2.98, recent ERA 2.78, 8.0 K/start, 2.67 ERA vs PHI in 3 starts, 1.12 ERA at this park. Both starters are in sharp form and have dominated this specific opponent repeatedly. Both offenses are dangerous (PIT wRC+ 151, PHI wRC+ 153) but those wRC+ numbers will be neutralized by the opposing ace. PHI bullpen (xERA 3.83) and PIT bullpen (xERA 4.04) are both solid to average. Park APF 108 is a minor concern but the two pitchers transcend park factors. The market has this at 8.0/-108 — that's still too high given two true aces in career-best form in this specific matchup.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
Paul Skenes K o7.5 (+120)
Skenes has a K% of 35.7% and averages 8.0 K/start in his last 3. PHI K% is 22.4% vs RHP — a legitimate strikeout lineup. His matchup history vs PHI is 7.7 K/gs over 3 starts, including 1.12 ERA at this park in his one appearance here. The flag about a bullpen fresh hook risk is real, but his recent pitch counts (104, 103, 109) suggest he's going deep. Getting +120 on a pitcher whose recent average is 8.0 K/start facing a 22.4% K-rate lineup with established historical dominance here is clear positive-EV.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
Zack Wheeler Ks o7.5 (+118)
Wheeler is in elite form: xERA 2.14 (elite), recent ERA 1.42, averaging 7.3 K/start over last 3 (9K, 5K, 8K). His matchup history vs PIT is perfect: 2 starts, 0.00 ERA, 7.0 K/gs. At Citizens Bank Park his home ERA is 1.98 with 3 starts averaging 6.1 IP. PIT strikes out at 25.8% vs RHP — one of the higher K rates today — making PIT a very favorable matchup for Wheeler to pile up Ks. Flags show PIT's recent opponents were MIA (18%) and COL (19%) — Wheeler was likely facing tougher lineups recently. Against PIT's 25.8% K rate, adjusted expectation is 8+ Ks. Getting +118 here is exceptional value for an elite K pitcher in a dream K matchup.
Found at 10:57 AM ET
ATL Team Total u4.5 (-115)
ATL wRC+ is 37 (extremely cold) vs RHP in L12 — one of the worst offensive outputs in the league right now. McGreevy recent ERA 3.00 despite poor xERA (5.28 — luck gap noted, but real skill here is keeping them off balance with a cold lineup). STL bullpen is poor (xERA 5.13) which limits how long this play extends, but the first 5-6 innings vs McGreevy should see minimal ATL run production. ATL avg RS of 7.4 in recent starts is inflated by opponent quality — that wRC+ 37 is a devastating L12 number against RHP and is the primary signal here.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
TBR @ KCR o10.5 (-102)
Five aligned over signals: (1) McClanahan xERA 6.58 — truly poor pitcher; (2) Lugo xERA 4.36 with 5.65 ERA — struggling; (3) Wind blowing out 16 mph at Kauffman (APF 105); (4) Both offenses are hot — TBR wRC+ 146, KCR wRC+ 131 vs LHP (elite); (5) KCR bullpen is atrocious (xERA 5.26, ERA 9.00) — runs will keep coming after Lugo exits. McClanahan has 52% HH rate, 14% Barrel%, giving up hard contact consistently. TBR hitting .146 wRC+ — they will score on Lugo. KCR hitting .131 vs LHP — they will score on McClanahan. Getting -102 on this over is strong value.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
MIN @ HOU o8.5 (-105)
Both starters are struggling acutely: Bradley recent ERA 8.07 (xERA 2.79 — clearly struggling right now, not just unlucky); Imai recent ERA 7.23 (xERA 2.36 — same pattern, collapsing beyond luck). MIN offense is elite: wRC+ 160 vs RHP — best in the league right now. MIN bullpen is poor (xERA 4.92, ERA 7.97) — runs will continue after Bradley exits. HOU wRC+ 108 vs RHP with a decent offense. The combination of both aces in acute terrible form + elite MIN offense + poor MIN bullpen = strong over signal at -105.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
MIA @ COL o11.0 (-102)
Coors Field (APF 115) is the most offense-friendly park in baseball. Freeland is in acute collapse: recent ERA 8.18, ERA 6.63, xERA 3.86, HH% 45%, Barrel% 15%, and 4.68 ERA in 3 career starts vs MIA. MIA has Max Meyer (elite, recent ERA 1.99) which limits COL scoring, but MIA offense is below avg vs LHP (wRC+ 86) so COL will score some. Freeland is a massive run-yield risk (career 5.47 ERA at home, history of giving up hard contact). COL wRC+ 111 vs RHP is solid. MIA bullpen (xERA 3.37) is solid but COL bullpen is average (xERA 4.17). The Coors park effect alone moves the needle, and Freeland's struggles compound it. Getting the over at -102 at Coors with a collapsing starter is strong value.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
COL Team Total o4.5 (-115)
Meyer is elite but has a 6.30 ERA in 2 career starts vs COL — Coors eats even good pitchers. COL wRC+ 111 vs RHP is solid. Meyer's recent ERA is 1.99 (excellent) but he's never pitched at Coors before (no data). COL averages 6.0 RS in pitcher's recent home starts and 4.2 at home in this cycle. MIA bullpen is good (xERA 3.37) which caps ceiling, but with Coors factor and Meyer's shaky Coors history, COL scoring over 4.5 is well-supported.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
Max Meyer Ks o6.5 (+115)
Max Meyer has been dominant: xERA 2.57 (elite), K% 27.6%, recent ERA 1.99, and averaging 7.0 K/start over his last 3. His recent outings: 9K, 5K, 7K. COL strikes out 18.7% vs RHP — not elite but reasonable, and importantly today's wind is blowing IN at 18 mph (suppresses offense, batters may chase more). Meyer's recent high-K games came against PIT (19% K%), ARI (14%), and WSN — COL's 18.7% K rate is comparable or better than at least two of those opponents. Adjusted expectation: ~7 Ks, well above the 6.5 line. MIA bullpen is fresh and strong, so Meyer should get full usage. Getting +115 on a pitcher averaging 7 K/start is clear positive expected value.
Found at 10:57 AM ET
MIA -1.5 (-108)
This is a strong compound edge. Max Meyer is elite: xERA 2.57, recent ERA 1.99, averaging 7.0 K/start — he's the best pitcher on the board today. Freeland is a disaster: xERA 3.86 but recent ERA 8.18 (STRUGGLING), ERA 6.63, HH% 44.6%, Barrel% 15.4%, and a 4.68 ERA in 3 career starts vs MIA. MIA offense is above average vs LHP (wRC+ 119). MIA bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.68, ERA 2.84) while COL's pen is shaky (xERA 4.76, ERA 5.85). MIA is 5-0 in Meyer's last 5 starts, averaging 5.6 RS. The -1.5 at -108 is excellent value — you'd expect MIA to be a much bigger favorite. The Coors effect cuts both ways, but Meyer has historically been dominant (his 6.30 ERA vs COL in 2 starts is the one caution, but at this price with these recent forms, the edge is clear). MIA covers -1.5 in a dominant win.
Found at 4:36 PM ET
SFG @ ARI o9.5 (-108)
Massive over stack: Gallen is in acute meltdown (xERA 7.82, season ERA 9.18, recent ERA 6.15, Barrel% 14%) vs an elite SFG offense (wRC+ 130 vs RHP). McDonald is also below average (xERA 4.98, recent ERA 5.45) vs a mediocre ARI offense. Both bullpens are average-to-poor (SFG xERA 4.86, ARI xERA 4.61). Gallen's home park ERA is 10.21 in 3 starts, and ARI home avg RS is 5.4 in Gallen's starts. SFG is elite offensive unit — combined, the run environment strongly supports going over 9.5 at -108.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
SFG Team Total o4.5 (-120)
SFG wRC+ 130 vs RHP — elite offense facing one of the worst pitchers in baseball by xERA (7.82) with a home park ERA of 10.21. Even at -120 there is clear value: Gallen's barrel rate (14%), walk rate (7.7%), and total inability to miss bats (K% 7.7) means SFG should score freely. ARI bullpen is not a safety net (xERA 4.61, ERA 5.44). SFG averaging 4.6 RS in away games in this starter's recent starts supports the 4.5 line.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
Zac Gallen Outs u17.5 (+106)
Gallen is averaging 5.6 IP/gs but is getting hammered (recent ERA 6.15, xERA 7.82). His at-home ERA is 10.21 over 3 starts, showing managers pull him early when he struggles at Chase. 17.5 outs = 5.83 innings. With his current form vs a wRC+ 123 SFG lineup and a shaky ARI bullpen, Gallen is a prime early-hook candidate. Getting +106 on the under is excellent value — essentially even money with a clear lean toward a short outing.
Found at 10:57 AM ET
LAD Team Total o5.5 (-132)
Charlie Barnes is essentially a reliever being stretched: 3 starts totaling 5.0 IP (1.67 IP/start average), with BB% of 16% and recent appearances of 1.0 IP and 1.0 IP. He will not last long enough to suppress LAD's elite offense (wRC+ 144 vs RHP, the highest mark in today's slate). ATH bullpen has a 3.67 xERA but ERA of 5.89 in L12, and is elevated (8 IP over 2g) meaning starters go longer — but Barnes simply can't go long. The odds at -132 are borderline per pricing rules; noted with line_warning.
Found at 10:57 AM ET
Line Warning: LAD F5 Team Total Over 2.5 at -154 is over the pricing threshold; consider LAD Team Total Over 5.5 or the full-game total direction instead.
Games In Progress / Completed
Dean Kremer K o5.5 (+107)
Kremer has an elite K% of 37.2% — among the highest in baseball. His recent avg is 8.0 K/start with 7K and 9K in his last two starts. CHW K% vs RHP is 20.9% — an above-average strikeout lineup. Kremer has 5.5 K/gs vs CHW in matchup history and 1.28 ERA at home. Both starters are returning from extended layoffs (Schultz 38 days, Kremer 74 days) which is a concern for innings length — but Kremer's 37.2 K% means he accumulates Ks efficiently even in shorter outings. The BAL bullpen flag (manager leaves starter in longer) also supports innings length. Getting +107 on a 37.2% K-rate pitcher vs a 20.9% K lineup where he recently had 7 and 9 Ks is positive value.
Found at 4:48 AM ET
SDP @ CHC o12.0 (-110)
Colin Rea is in acute crisis: recent ERA 8.71 over last 3 starts, including a 7 ER shellacking and a 4 ER outing. Despite xERA of 2.99, his actual recent performance is disqualifying (recent ERA 3+ runs above xERA suggests real current struggle, not just bad luck). He faces a SDP offense hitting wRC+ 130 (elite) vs RHP. Walker Buehler is the elite counterpart (xERA 2.48, recent ERA 1.78), but SDP allows only modest run support — the mismatch is one-sided with Rea almost certain to allow 6+ runs. CHC bullpen xERA 4.66 adds further run risk. Both offenses are above-average (SDP 130, CHC 126 wRC+). The market has set this at 12.0, acknowledging the situation, but Rea's current struggles vs an elite SDP offense in a ballpark playing neutral makes over 12.0 still reachable, especially with shaky bullpens on both sides.
Found at 10:57 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CHW @ 
BAL✓12:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHot
CHW @ BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Noah Schultz L
xERA7.10 (poor)K%16.1 (below avg)HH%47.6 (poor)Barrel%16.7 (poor)ERA7.90IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs83BB%9.7
BAL vs LHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%33.7 (below avg)
Dean Kremer R
xERA3.92 (avg)K%37.2 (elite)HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%16.0 (poor)ERA4.09IP/gs5.5 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs85BB%4.7
CHW vs RHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%21.5 (avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+120+1.5 (-170)O10.0 (-105)BAL-140-1.5 (+145)U10.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+114+0.5 (-120)O5.5 (-114)BAL-142-0.5 (-108)U5.5 (-114)
Team Totals
OverUnderCHWO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-110)BALO5.5 (+114)U5.5 (-142)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNoah Schultz3.5 (-130 / +102)13.5 (-120 / -111)Dean Kremer5.5 (+107 / -130)15.5 (-110 / -121)
Noah Schultz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1@ L4.18772433
L4.18772433May 24@ 
L4.07016166
L4.07016166May 18@ 
L5.19165033
L5.19165033May 13vs 
W4.17632533
W4.17632533May 6@ 
L3.27937477
L3.27937477Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs W6.07944111
W6.07944111Apr 18@ 
L6.09572233
L6.09572233Apr 13vs 
W5.08096024
W5.08096024SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Schultz
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.16.597.02.04.0(1)
at BAL4.16.597.02.04.0(1)
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.72.095.04.72.0(3)
home starts5.71.585.73.70.3(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-4 vs BAL this season (6 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Noah Schultz's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-3 in Noah Schultz's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 4.4 runs/game in Noah Schultz's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.6 runs/game in Noah Schultz's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 4-2 vs CHW this season (6 games).
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL have lost 4 straight.
- BAL are 1-1 in Dean Kremer's last 2 starts.
- BAL are 1-0 in Dean Kremer's last 1 home starts.
- BAL average 5.5 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 2 starts.
- BAL average 9.0 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 1 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.29 (good)ERA 2.732d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.53 (elite)ERA 3.052d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
94°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 2 mph S
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- CHW — Noah Schultz: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHW — Noah Schultz: Barrel% 17% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- BAL — Dean Kremer: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- BAL bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Noah Schultz: 38 days since last start (2026-05-24) — may not be fully stretched out
- CHW — Noah Schultz: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- BAL — Dean Kremer: 74 days since last start (2026-04-18) — may not be fully stretched out
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
Dean Kremer K o5.5 (+107)
Kremer has an elite K% of 37.2% — among the highest in baseball. His recent avg is 8.0 K/start with 7K and 9K in his last two starts. CHW K% vs RHP is 20.9% — an above-average strikeout lineup. Kremer has 5.5 K/gs vs CHW in matchup history and 1.28 ERA at home. Both starters are returning from extended layoffs (Schultz 38 days, Kremer 74 days) which is a concern for innings length — but Kremer's 37.2 K% means he accumulates Ks efficiently even in shorter outings. The BAL bullpen flag (manager leaves starter in longer) also supports innings length. Getting +107 on a 37.2% K-rate pitcher vs a 20.9% K lineup where he recently had 7 and 9 Ks is positive value.
TEX @ CLE1:10 PM · Progressive FieldHot
TEX @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA2.55 (elite)K%28.0 (elite)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA3.60IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs95BB%6.7
CLE vs LHP
wRC+7 (poor)K%32.4 (poor)HH%29.9 (poor)
Joey Cantillo L
xERA2.45 (elite)K%31.9 (elite)HH%31.8 (good)Barrel%4.5 (elite)ERA1.42IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs94BB%4.3
TEX vs LHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%24.8 (below avg)HH%23.9 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-106-1.5 (+160)O8.5 (+102)CLE-110+1.5 (-187)U8.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-116-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-110)CLE-108+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO3.5 (-136)U3.5 (+110)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)CLEO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+105)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMacKenzie Gore5.5 (-143 / +122)17.5 (-128 / -104)Joey Cantillo5.5 (-105 / -114)15.5 (-118 / -112)
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1@ L5.09277155
L5.09277155Jun 25@ 
W7.09854133
W7.09854133Jun 20vs 
L6.09565211
L6.09565211Jun 15vs 
L7.0102104244
L7.0102104244Jun 10@ W5.08768322
W5.08768322Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs W5.09343522
W5.09343522Jun 26vs L6.09092211
L6.09092211Jun 20@ 
W8.09894111
W8.09894111Jun 13vs 
W5.07946011
W5.07946011Jun 7@ L5.09779277
L5.09779277SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.09.007.07.01.0(1)
at CLE5.09.007.07.01.0(1)
Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.16.516.35.02.3(3)
home starts5.32.255.73.72.3(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 4-2 vs CLE this season (6 games).
- TEX are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX have won 6 straight.
- TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 4.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.4 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-4 vs TEX this season (6 games).
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 4.2 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 4.2 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.71 (good)ERA 5.442d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 5.68 (poor)ERA 5.812d stress Fresh (4.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WNW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.68 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- TEX bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE bullpen fresh (4.3 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: recent opponents low-K: DET 18%, HOU 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
WSN @ 
BOS1:35 PM · Fenway ParkHot
WSN @ BOSMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brad Lord
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
BOS
No data
Payton Tolle L
xERA3.94 (avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs81BB%8.6
WSN vs LHP
wRC+89 (below avg)K%28.4 (poor)HH%36.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN—-7.5 (-230)O12.5 (+184)BOS—+7.5 (+184)U12.5 (-230)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+114+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-144)BOS-142-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
OverUnderWSNO4.5 (-105)U4.5 (-115)BOSO5.5 (+110)U4.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrad Lord——Payton Tolle5.5 (-102 / -120)17.5 (-108 / -105)
Payton Tolle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs L3.07657366
L3.07657366Jun 26vs 
W7.08871200
W7.08871200Jun 21@ L6.07926233
L6.07926233Jun 16vs L5.09064233
L5.09064233Jun 9@ 
L6.09439144
L6.09439144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Payton Tolle
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN3.018.005.07.03.0(1)
home starts5.05.406.04.02.3(3)
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 1-1 vs BOS this season (2 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 1-1 vs WSN this season (2 games).
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 2-3 in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-3 in Payton Tolle's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 3.8 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.6 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 5.59 (poor)ERA 7.082d stress Fresh (3.0 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 3.29 (good)ERA 5.402d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph SW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- WSN — Brad Lord: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.59 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- WSN bullpen fresh (3.0 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- BOS bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Payton Tolle: low-K outing 2026-06-21 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
DET @ NYY1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumHot
DET @ NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Troy Melton R
xERA2.21 (elite)K%24.2 (good)HH%24.4 (elite)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA3.18IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs85BB%4.5
NYY vs RHP
wRC+33 (poor)K%29.6 (poor)HH%35.7 (avg)
Will Warren R
xERA6.49 (poor)K%11.8 (poor)HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA5.28IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs86BB%10.5
DET vs RHP
wRC+125 (above avg)K%23.2 (avg)HH%40.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-20000-3.5 (-424)O8.5 (+291)NYY+5000+3.5 (+320)U8.5 (-186)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+114+0.5 (-125)O5.5 (+104)NYY-142-0.5 (-104)U5.5 (-135)
Team Totals
OverUnderDETO4.5 (-108)U4.5 (-118)NYYO4.5 (-138)U4.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTroy Melton4.5 (-125 / +118)16.5 (-104 / -110)Will Warren5.5 (-130 / +106)16.5 (-125 / -105)
Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1@ W6.18472100
W6.18472100Jun 25vs L6.08862011
L6.08862011Jun 20vs W6.08451311
W6.08451311Jun 9vs W5.08858044
W5.08858044Jun 3@ W8.09454222
W8.09454222Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs L5.17975022
L5.17975022Jun 26@ L5.29007355
L5.29007355Jun 20vs 
L5.29088226
L5.29088226Jun 14@ W4.09818322
W4.09818322Jun 8@ W4.19154233
W4.19154233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.10.007.02.01.0(1)
at NYY6.10.007.02.01.0(1)
Will Warren
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.53.246.03.50.5(2)
home starts5.14.126.06.31.0(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-2 vs NYY this season (5 games).
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 3-2 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-2 in Troy Melton's last 4 away starts.
- DET average 5.0 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 3.5 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 4 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-3 vs DET this season (5 games).
- NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY have lost 6 straight.
- NYY are 3-2 in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 6.2 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 5.6 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 2.28 (elite)ERA 3.442d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
NYY
xERA 2.41 (elite)ERA 1.942d stress Stressed (12.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
96°F, Wind 12 mph
Flags · 3
- NYY bullpen stressed (12.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET — Troy Melton: 2026-06-09: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYY — Will Warren: 2026-06-26: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SDP @ 
CHC✓2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldHot
SDP @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Walker Buehler R
xERA2.48 (elite)K%27.4 (good)HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs82BB%6.5
CHC vs RHP
wRC+126 (above avg)K%22.5 (avg)HH%34.3 (below avg)
Colin Rea R
xERA2.99 (elite)K%13.6 (below avg)HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs7.5 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs83BB%9.1
SDP vs RHP
wRC+130 (elite)K%22.4 (avg)HH%40.1 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP—+10.5 (+115)O20.5 (-102)CHC—-13.5 (+120)U20.5 (+110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-106+0.5 (-144)O6.5 (-106)CHC-118-0.5 (+110)U6.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderSDPO5.5 (-120)U5.5 (+100)CHCO5.5 (-115)U5.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalker Buehler3.5 (-147 / +134)14.5 (-152 / +130)Colin Rea3.5 (-144 / +118)15.5 (+112 / -144)
Walker Buehler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1@ L4.08567499
L4.08567499Jun 26vs 
W5.17453311
W5.17453311Jun 20@ W5.18775111
W5.18775111Jun 14@ W5.08656011
W5.08656011Jun 8vs W4.28648211
W4.28648211Colin Rea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1vs W5.08156322
W5.08156322Jun 26@ 
L5.08945311
L5.08945311Jun 20vs L5.17833000
L5.17833000Jun 14@ L4.2*9026344
L4.2*9026344Jun 9@ 
L4.27929377
L4.27929377SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Walker Buehler
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.112.075.05.03.5(2)
at CHC4.020.256.07.04.0(1)
Colin Rea
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP5.03.605.06.03.0(1)
home starts5.12.373.74.31.7(3)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 1-4 vs CHC this season (5 games).
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have lost 4 straight.
- SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 5.2 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 6.0 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 4-1 vs SDP this season (5 games).
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC have won 4 straight.
- CHC are 1-4 in Colin Rea's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-3 in Colin Rea's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 4.4 runs/game in Colin Rea's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 4.6 runs/game in Colin Rea's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 4.092d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.66 (below avg)ERA 4.812d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
94°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph SW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- SDP — Walker Buehler: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SDP — Walker Buehler: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHC — Colin Rea: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — Colin Rea: 2026-06-09: 7 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SDP @ CHC o12.0 (-110)
Colin Rea is in acute crisis: recent ERA 8.71 over last 3 starts, including a 7 ER shellacking and a 4 ER outing. Despite xERA of 2.99, his actual recent performance is disqualifying (recent ERA 3+ runs above xERA suggests real current struggle, not just bad luck). He faces a SDP offense hitting wRC+ 130 (elite) vs RHP. Walker Buehler is the elite counterpart (xERA 2.48, recent ERA 1.78), but SDP allows only modest run support — the mismatch is one-sided with Rea almost certain to allow 6+ runs. CHC bullpen xERA 4.66 adds further run risk. Both offenses are above-average (SDP 130, CHC 126 wRC+). The market has set this at 12.0, acknowledging the situation, but Rea's current struggles vs an elite SDP offense in a ballpark playing neutral makes over 12.0 still reachable, especially with shaky bullpens on both sides.
NYM @ TOR3:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
NYM @ TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.03 (good)K%14.3 (below avg)HH%29.4 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)ERA7.43IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs83BB%4.8
TOR vs RHP
wRC+88 (below avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%37.4 (avg)
Braydon Fisher
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYM
No data
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+1000+4.5 (+106)O10.5 (-103)TOR-1800-4.5 (-133)U10.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM-130-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-128)TOR+104+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderNYMO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)TORO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFreddy Peralta4.5 (-125 / +106)17.5 (-146 / +110)Braydon Fisher——
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 1@ L2.27137355
L2.27137355Jun 25vs L5.29855103
L5.29855103Jun 20@ 
L2.28021011010
L2.28021011010Jun 14vs 
W5.09024111
W5.09024111Jun 9vs 
L6.09856266
L6.09856266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.15.495.54.02.0(2)
at TOR4.15.495.54.02.0(2)
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-1 vs TOR this season (2 games).
- NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 2-3 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 4.2 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.6 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 1-1 vs NYM this season (2 games).
- TOR are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 4.152d stress Normal (5.3 IP/2g)
TOR
xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 3.002d stress Normal (5.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph S
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- TOR — Braydon Fisher: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- NYM — Freddy Peralta: 2026-06-20: 10 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 41) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
PIT @ PHI✓6:40 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHot
PIT @ PHI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Paul Skenes R
xERA2.98 (elite)K%35.7 (elite)HH%47.4 (poor)Barrel%10.5 (avg)ERA4.24IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs101BB%7.1
PHI vs RHP
wRC+158 (elite)K%22.8 (avg)HH%44.2 (above avg)
Zack Wheeler R
xERA2.14 (elite)K%29.6 (elite)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA1.45IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs100BB%9.9
PIT vs RHP
wRC+162 (elite)K%25.8 (below avg)HH%47.1 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+110+1.5 (-190)O10.5 (+104)PHI-126-1.5 (+162)U9.5 (+102)
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs L5.09676244
L5.09676244Jun 20@ L6.010484222
L6.010484222Jun 14vs 
L6.0104104122
L6.0104104122Jun 9vs L6.010376222
L6.010376222Jun 3@ L4.210976113
L4.210976113Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ W7.09854111
W7.09854111Jun 21vs W5.210474322
W5.210474322Jun 15vs W6.09792300
W6.09792300Jun 9@ L6.09656011
L6.09656011Jun 4vs W7.010482322
W7.010482322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI6.72.677.73.71.0(3)
at PHI8.01.129.03.01.0(1)
Zack Wheeler
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.50.007.03.51.0(2)
home starts6.11.988.02.73.0(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-4 vs PHI this season (5 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 0-5 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 3.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 4-1 vs PIT this season (5 games).
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 4-1 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 5-0 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 4.6 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 5.6 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 4.39 (avg)ERA 4.662d stress Fresh (4.7 IP/2g)
PHI
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 4.982d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
99°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph WSW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- PIT — Paul Skenes: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT bullpen fresh (4.7 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-06-26: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- PIT — Paul Skenes: recent opponents low-K: MIA 18%, COL 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
PIT @ PHI u8.0 (-108)
Elite ace matchup with a line that hasn't moved far enough down. Wheeler: xERA 2.14, recent ERA 1.42, 7.3 K/start, 0.00 ERA vs PIT in 2 career starts, 1.98 ERA at home. Skenes: xERA 2.98, recent ERA 2.78, 8.0 K/start, 2.67 ERA vs PHI in 3 starts, 1.12 ERA at this park. Both starters are in sharp form and have dominated this specific opponent repeatedly. Both offenses are dangerous (PIT wRC+ 151, PHI wRC+ 153) but those wRC+ numbers will be neutralized by the opposing ace. PHI bullpen (xERA 3.83) and PIT bullpen (xERA 4.04) are both solid to average. Park APF 108 is a minor concern but the two pitchers transcend park factors. The market has this at 8.0/-108 — that's still too high given two true aces in career-best form in this specific matchup.
Paul Skenes K o7.5 (+120)
Skenes has a K% of 35.7% and averages 8.0 K/start in his last 3. PHI K% is 22.4% vs RHP — a legitimate strikeout lineup. His matchup history vs PHI is 7.7 K/gs over 3 starts, including 1.12 ERA at this park in his one appearance here. The flag about a bullpen fresh hook risk is real, but his recent pitch counts (104, 103, 109) suggest he's going deep. Getting +120 on a pitcher whose recent average is 8.0 K/start facing a 22.4% K-rate lineup with established historical dominance here is clear positive-EV.
Zack Wheeler Ks o7.5 (+118)
Wheeler is in elite form: xERA 2.14 (elite), recent ERA 1.42, averaging 7.3 K/start over last 3 (9K, 5K, 8K). His matchup history vs PIT is perfect: 2 starts, 0.00 ERA, 7.0 K/gs. At Citizens Bank Park his home ERA is 1.98 with 3 starts averaging 6.1 IP. PIT strikes out at 25.8% vs RHP — one of the higher K rates today — making PIT a very favorable matchup for Wheeler to pile up Ks. Flags show PIT's recent opponents were MIA (18%) and COL (19%) — Wheeler was likely facing tougher lineups recently. Against PIT's 25.8% K rate, adjusted expectation is 8+ Ks. Getting +118 here is exceptional value for an elite K pitcher in a dream K matchup.
STL @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkHot
STL @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael McGreevy R
xERA5.28 (poor)K%11.4 (poor)HH%37.9 (avg)Barrel%6.9 (good)ERA3.71IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs93BB%5.7
ATL vs RHP
wRC+32 (poor)K%20.4 (avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)
Reynaldo Lopez R
xERA4.33 (avg)K%17.9 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%5.3 (good)ERA1.29IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs48BB%10.7
STL vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%14.1 (elite)HH%40.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+117+1.5 (-175)O9.0 (-115)ATL-130-1.5 (+148)U9.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-102+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-146)ATL-122-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)ATLO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael McGreevy3.5 (+128 / -152)17.5 (+116 / +100)Reynaldo Lopez3.5 (+130 / -152)—
Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs L6.09445100
L6.09445100Jun 19@ L5.09528155
L5.09528155Jun 14@ L6.08927222
L6.08927222Jun 7vs W6.08355022
W6.08355022Jun 1vs L6.08715222
L6.08715222Reynaldo Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ W3.05714011
W3.05714011Jun 21vs L3.0*5831101
L3.0*5831101Jun 16vs L2.0*3011000
L2.0*3011000Jun 14@ L1.0*2410200
L1.0*2410200Jun 7vs W1.1*2721100
W1.1*2721100Trends · STL
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 1-4 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.0 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 4.0 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Reynaldo Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-0 in Reynaldo Lopez's last 2 home starts.
- ATL average 7.4 runs/game in Reynaldo Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 6.0 runs/game in Reynaldo Lopez's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 5.04 (below avg)ERA 5.322d stress Normal (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.29 (good)ERA 2.012d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
93°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: small sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.04 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — Michael McGreevy: 2026-06-19: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — Michael McGreevy: recent opponents low-K: MIN 14%, MIA 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-21, 2026-06-16 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: last start: 57 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ATL — Reynaldo Lopez: 2026-04-21: 4 ER in 1.0 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATL Team Total u4.5 (-115)
ATL wRC+ is 37 (extremely cold) vs RHP in L12 — one of the worst offensive outputs in the league right now. McGreevy recent ERA 3.00 despite poor xERA (5.28 — luck gap noted, but real skill here is keeping them off balance with a cold lineup). STL bullpen is poor (xERA 5.13) which limits how long this play extends, but the first 5-6 innings vs McGreevy should see minimal ATL run production. ATL avg RS of 7.4 in recent starts is inflated by opponent quality — that wRC+ 37 is a devastating L12 number against RHP and is the primary signal here.
TBR @ KCR✓7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot, Windy
TBR @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shane McClanahan L
xERA6.58 (poor)K%21.5 (avg)HH%52.3 (poor)Barrel%13.6 (below avg)ERA5.27IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs77BB%10.8
KCR vs LHP
wRC+137 (elite)K%18.0 (above avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Seth Lugo R
xERA4.36 (avg)K%8.3 (poor)HH%44.9 (below avg)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA5.65IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs73BB%10.0
TBR vs RHP
wRC+147 (elite)K%15.4 (elite)HH%39.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-134-1.5 (+110)O10.5 (-108)KCR+120+1.5 (-130)U10.5 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-140-0.5 (-106)O5.5 (-106)KCR+112+0.5 (-122)U5.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO5.5 (-111)U5.5 (-115)O2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-105)KCRO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane McClanahan4.5 (+106 / -121)15.5 (+128 / -167)Seth Lugo3.5 (-134 / +122)16.5 (-104 / +102)
Shane McClanahan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 23vs L6.07546126
L6.07546126Jun 17@ L3.28333522
L3.28333522Jun 12@ L4.07478144
L4.07478144Jun 6@ L5.08168244
L5.08168244May 31vs W5.07034011
W5.07034011Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25@ L5.09037277
L5.09037277Jun 19vs W6.08505312
W6.08505312Jun 10vs L3.14423111
L3.14423111Jun 4@ W5.09246155
W5.09246155May 30@ L6.09066013
L6.09066013SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane McClanahan
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.03.004.06.01.0(1)
at KCR—
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.57.364.06.01.0(2)
home starts5.12.961.74.72.0(3)
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 3-2 vs KCR this season (5 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR have won 6 straight.
- TBR are 1-4 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-4 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 4.0 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.8 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-3 vs TBR this season (5 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 5.2 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 4.8 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 2.922d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 5.16 (below avg)ERA 8.372d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot, Windy
94°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 16 mph SSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 11
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR — Seth Lugo: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.16 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: 2026-06-12: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: recent opponents low-K: LAD 18%, KCR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- KCR — Seth Lugo: 2026-06-25: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Seth Lugo: recent opponents low-K: STL 14%, TBR 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 16 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
TBR @ KCR o10.5 (-102)
Five aligned over signals: (1) McClanahan xERA 6.58 — truly poor pitcher; (2) Lugo xERA 4.36 with 5.65 ERA — struggling; (3) Wind blowing out 16 mph at Kauffman (APF 105); (4) Both offenses are hot — TBR wRC+ 146, KCR wRC+ 131 vs LHP (elite); (5) KCR bullpen is atrocious (xERA 5.26, ERA 9.00) — runs will keep coming after Lugo exits. McClanahan has 52% HH rate, 14% Barrel%, giving up hard contact consistently. TBR hitting .146 wRC+ — they will score on Lugo. KCR hitting .131 vs LHP — they will score on McClanahan. Getting -102 on this over is strong value.
CIN @ MIL8:10 PM · American Family Field (Roof Closed)
CIN @ MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Andrew Abbott L
xERA4.52 (below avg)K%25.0 (good)HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)ERA2.93IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs95BB%10.3
MIL vs LHP
wRC+70 (poor)K%25.1 (below avg)HH%34.8 (below avg)
Shane Drohan L
xERA3.68 (good)K%23.4 (good)HH%26.2 (elite)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA3.14IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs89BB%9.4
CIN vs LHP
wRC+137 (elite)K%21.5 (avg)HH%40.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+165+1.5 (-140)O7.0 (+100)MIL-190-1.5 (+130)U6.5 (+104)
Andrew Abbott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ W5.19466134
W5.19466134Jun 20@ W5.09765311
W5.09765311Jun 14vs L5.09554311
L5.09554311Jun 8@ L6.010164233
L6.010164233Jun 2vs W6.010555433
W6.010555433Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ W4.19855300
W4.19855300Jun 18vs L5.09133311
L5.09133311Jun 13vs L5.07878044
L5.07878044Jun 7@ W6.18345133
W6.18345133Jun 1vs W4.06854222
W4.06854222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Abbott
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.03.985.75.30.3(3)
at MIL5.15.294.05.00.0(1)
Shane Drohan
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.10.005.05.03.0(1)
home starts4.74.505.05.01.7(3)
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 0-5 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 5.0 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 5.8 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 5-0 vs CIN this season (5 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 in Shane Drohan's last 3 home starts.
- MIL average 8.8 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 8.7 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 4.602d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
MIL
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 5.052d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- CIN — Andrew Abbott: recent opponents high-K: NYY 28%, PIT 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- MIL — Shane Drohan: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIL — Shane Drohan: 2026-06-13: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIL — Shane Drohan: recent opponents high-K: PHI 26%, CLE 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
The total market is split oddly (O7.0 at +100, U6.5 at +104) — a gap line suggesting genuine uncertainty. Abbott has xERA 4.52 and recent ERA 3.71 with a 14.1% Barrel%, while Drohan is struggling (recent ERA 5.36) but MIL vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 70). CIN offense vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 137) but both K stats were inflated vs high-K opponents per flags. The split total line creates no clear over/under value at either number.
MIN @ HOU✓8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
MIN @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Taj Bradley R
xERA2.79 (elite)K%24.3 (good)HH%42.0 (below avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA3.86IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs97BB%8.1
HOU vs RHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%23.2 (avg)HH%34.0 (below avg)
Tatsuya Imai R
xERA2.36 (elite)K%42.3 (elite)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA5.68IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs74BB%3.9
MIN vs RHP
wRC+149 (elite)K%14.1 (elite)HH%37.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+120+1.5 (-181)O8.5 (-108)HOU-138-1.5 (+158)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+106+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-110)HOU-132-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+106)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)HOUO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTaj Bradley5.5 (-136 / +106)17.5 (-102 / -130)Tatsuya Imai6.5 (+118 / +120)16.5 (+100 / -128)
Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs W7.09973322
W7.09973322Jun 20@ W5.09143222
W5.09143222Jun 14vs W6.210175144
W6.210175144Jun 9@ L4.18937355
L4.18937355Jun 3vs L4.210457544
L4.210457544Tatsuya Imai · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25@ W6.096102100
W6.096102100Jun 19vs W6.089116033
W6.089116033Jun 12@ W0.23814155
W0.23814155Jun 6vs 
W5.09285322
W5.09285322May 31vs L6.011053222
L6.011053222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Taj Bradley
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.51.388.53.52.0(2)
at HOU7.00.0010.03.02.0(1)
Tatsuya Imai
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.26.435.05.00.0(1)
home starts5.73.718.04.71.7(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 3-2 vs HOU this season (5 games).
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 3-2 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 6.8 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 8.0 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-3 vs MIN this season (5 games).
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 4-1 in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 6.8 runs/game in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 6.6 runs/game in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 7.592d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 3.27 (good)ERA 2.062d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- MIN — Taj Bradley: recent opponents low-K: STL 14%, ARI 14%, COL 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: 2026-06-12: 5 ER in 0.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: low-K outing 2026-06-12 (1 Ks vs avg 7.3) — stuff was flat that day
MIN @ HOU o8.5 (-105)
Both starters are struggling acutely: Bradley recent ERA 8.07 (xERA 2.79 — clearly struggling right now, not just unlucky); Imai recent ERA 7.23 (xERA 2.36 — same pattern, collapsing beyond luck). MIN offense is elite: wRC+ 160 vs RHP — best in the league right now. MIN bullpen is poor (xERA 4.92, ERA 7.97) — runs will continue after Bradley exits. HOU wRC+ 108 vs RHP with a decent offense. The combination of both aces in acute terrible form + elite MIN offense + poor MIN bullpen = strong over signal at -105.
MIA @ COL✓8:40 PM · Coors FieldHot
MIA @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Max Meyer R
xERA2.57 (elite)K%27.6 (good)HH%26.1 (elite)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA1.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs97BB%9.2
COL vs RHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%18.7 (above avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Kyle Freeland L
xERA3.86 (avg)K%19.5 (avg)HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%15.4 (poor)ERA6.63IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs8.3PC/gs86BB%1.2
MIA vs LHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%24.4 (below avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-154-1.5 (-108)O11.0 (-104)COL+130+1.5 (-110)U11.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-158-0.5 (-118)O5.5 (-128)COL+126+0.5 (-110)U5.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO5.5 (-130)U5.5 (+105)O2.5 (-154)U2.5 (+120)COLO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-110)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMax Meyer5.5 (-138 / +117)17.5 (-130 / +100)Kyle Freeland3.5 (-140 / +120)15.5 (-130 / -102)
Max Meyer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ W7.08952200
W7.08952200Jun 20vs W5.09877222
W5.09877222Jun 14@ W6.010596311
W6.010596311Jun 9vs W5.19557222
W5.19557222Jun 3@ W7.09272211
W7.09272211Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs W6.081411166
W6.081411166Jun 19vs W7.18184022
W7.18184022Jun 13@ L5.295410066
L5.295410066Jun 7vs L5.08927133
L5.08927133Jun 1@ W5.29147156
W5.29147156SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Max Meyer
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.06.305.07.51.5(2)
at COL—
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.14.682.35.71.0(3)
home starts6.05.474.77.30.7(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-0 vs COL this season (5 games).
- MIA are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 5-0 in Max Meyer's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 4-1 in Max Meyer's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 5.6 runs/game in Max Meyer's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.6 runs/game in Max Meyer's last 5 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 0-5 vs MIA this season (5 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 3-2 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-3 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 6.0 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.2 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 2.842d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
COL
xERA 4.76 (below avg)ERA 5.852d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph SE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- COL — Kyle Freeland: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL — Kyle Freeland: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- COL bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
MIA @ COL o11.0 (-102)
Coors Field (APF 115) is the most offense-friendly park in baseball. Freeland is in acute collapse: recent ERA 8.18, ERA 6.63, xERA 3.86, HH% 45%, Barrel% 15%, and 4.68 ERA in 3 career starts vs MIA. MIA has Max Meyer (elite, recent ERA 1.99) which limits COL scoring, but MIA offense is below avg vs LHP (wRC+ 86) so COL will score some. Freeland is a massive run-yield risk (career 5.47 ERA at home, history of giving up hard contact). COL wRC+ 111 vs RHP is solid. MIA bullpen (xERA 3.37) is solid but COL bullpen is average (xERA 4.17). The Coors park effect alone moves the needle, and Freeland's struggles compound it. Getting the over at -102 at Coors with a collapsing starter is strong value.
COL Team Total o4.5 (-115)
Meyer is elite but has a 6.30 ERA in 2 career starts vs COL — Coors eats even good pitchers. COL wRC+ 111 vs RHP is solid. Meyer's recent ERA is 1.99 (excellent) but he's never pitched at Coors before (no data). COL averages 6.0 RS in pitcher's recent home starts and 4.2 at home in this cycle. MIA bullpen is good (xERA 3.37) which caps ceiling, but with Coors factor and Meyer's shaky Coors history, COL scoring over 4.5 is well-supported.
Max Meyer Ks o6.5 (+115)
Max Meyer has been dominant: xERA 2.57 (elite), K% 27.6%, recent ERA 1.99, and averaging 7.0 K/start over his last 3. His recent outings: 9K, 5K, 7K. COL strikes out 18.7% vs RHP — not elite but reasonable, and importantly today's wind is blowing IN at 18 mph (suppresses offense, batters may chase more). Meyer's recent high-K games came against PIT (19% K%), ARI (14%), and WSN — COL's 18.7% K rate is comparable or better than at least two of those opponents. Adjusted expectation: ~7 Ks, well above the 6.5 line. MIA bullpen is fresh and strong, so Meyer should get full usage. Getting +115 on a pitcher averaging 7 K/start is clear positive expected value.
MIA -1.5 (-108)
This is a strong compound edge. Max Meyer is elite: xERA 2.57, recent ERA 1.99, averaging 7.0 K/start — he's the best pitcher on the board today. Freeland is a disaster: xERA 3.86 but recent ERA 8.18 (STRUGGLING), ERA 6.63, HH% 44.6%, Barrel% 15.4%, and a 4.68 ERA in 3 career starts vs MIA. MIA offense is above average vs LHP (wRC+ 119). MIA bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.68, ERA 2.84) while COL's pen is shaky (xERA 4.76, ERA 5.85). MIA is 5-0 in Meyer's last 5 starts, averaging 5.6 RS. The -1.5 at -108 is excellent value — you'd expect MIA to be a much bigger favorite. The Coors effect cuts both ways, but Meyer has historically been dominant (his 6.30 ERA vs COL in 2 starts is the one caution, but at this price with these recent forms, the edge is clear). MIA covers -1.5 in a dominant win.
SFG @ ARI✓9:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
SFG @ ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Trevor McDonald R
xERA4.98 (below avg)K%12.5 (below avg)HH%40.9 (below avg)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA7.50IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs84BB%10.9
ARI vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%14.4 (elite)HH%37.1 (avg)
Zac Gallen R
xERA7.82 (poor)K%7.7 (poor)HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%14.1 (below avg)ERA9.18IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs84BB%7.7
SFG vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+110+1.5 (-180)O9.5 (-105)ARI-125-1.5 (+155)U9.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+100+0.5 (-140)O5.5 (+104)ARI-120-0.5 (+108)U5.5 (-135)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO4.5 (-108)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)ARIO4.5 (-122)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor McDonald3.5 (+102 / -128)15.5 (+122 / -162)Zac Gallen3.5 (-110 / -105)17.5 (+100 / +106)
Trevor McDonald · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs L5.19037133
L5.19037133Jun 20@ L3.06913335
L3.06913335Jun 13vs L3.29246344
L3.29246344Jun 7@ W5.08764311
W5.08764311Jun 2@ L5.08745333
L5.08745333Zac Gallen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ L6.28604255
L6.28604255Jun 20vs L4.081212299
L4.081212299Jun 14@ W6.08546233
W6.08546233Jun 9@ L5.19439144
L5.19439144Jun 3vs L5.09019245
L5.09019245SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trevor McDonald
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.12.956.06.02.0(1)
at ARI—
Zac Gallen
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.13.964.73.71.7(3)
home starts4.710.213.09.02.0(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 0-8 vs ARI this season (8 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 1-4 in Trevor McDonald's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 3-2 in Trevor McDonald's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 2.0 runs/game in Trevor McDonald's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.6 runs/game in Trevor McDonald's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 8-0 vs SFG this season (8 games).
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 1-4 in Zac Gallen's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 2-3 in Zac Gallen's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 4.0 runs/game in Zac Gallen's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.4 runs/game in Zac Gallen's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 4.78 (below avg)ERA 4.762d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 5.14 (below avg)ERA 5.442d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- ARI — Zac Gallen: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.14 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- SFG bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Zac Gallen: recent opponents low-K: MIN 14%, TBR 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
SFG @ ARI o9.5 (-108)
Massive over stack: Gallen is in acute meltdown (xERA 7.82, season ERA 9.18, recent ERA 6.15, Barrel% 14%) vs an elite SFG offense (wRC+ 130 vs RHP). McDonald is also below average (xERA 4.98, recent ERA 5.45) vs a mediocre ARI offense. Both bullpens are average-to-poor (SFG xERA 4.86, ARI xERA 4.61). Gallen's home park ERA is 10.21 in 3 starts, and ARI home avg RS is 5.4 in Gallen's starts. SFG is elite offensive unit — combined, the run environment strongly supports going over 9.5 at -108.
SFG Team Total o4.5 (-120)
SFG wRC+ 130 vs RHP — elite offense facing one of the worst pitchers in baseball by xERA (7.82) with a home park ERA of 10.21. Even at -120 there is clear value: Gallen's barrel rate (14%), walk rate (7.7%), and total inability to miss bats (K% 7.7) means SFG should score freely. ARI bullpen is not a safety net (xERA 4.61, ERA 5.44). SFG averaging 4.6 RS in away games in this starter's recent starts supports the 4.5 line.
Zac Gallen Outs u17.5 (+106)
Gallen is averaging 5.6 IP/gs but is getting hammered (recent ERA 6.15, xERA 7.82). His at-home ERA is 10.21 over 3 starts, showing managers pull him early when he struggles at Chase. 17.5 outs = 5.83 innings. With his current form vs a wRC+ 123 SFG lineup and a shaky ARI bullpen, Gallen is a prime early-hook candidate. Getting +106 on the under is excellent value — essentially even money with a clear lean toward a short outing.
LAD @ ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
LAD @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Charlie Barnes L
xERA5.19 (below avg)K%8.0 (poor)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA5.40IP/gs5.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs29BB%16.0
ATH vs LHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
J.T. Ginn R
xERA3.78 (avg)K%16.7 (below avg)HH%30.5 (good)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs95BB%7.7
LAD vs RHP
wRC+144 (elite)K%20.4 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-162-1.5 (-110)O11.0 (-104)ATH+141+1.5 (-107)U11.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-148-0.5 (-113)O5.5 (-130)ATH+124+0.5 (-115)U5.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULADO6.5 (+105)U5.5 (+106)O3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-145)ATHO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-111)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCharlie Barnes——J.T. Ginn4.5 (+105 / -124)15.5 (+115 / +125)
Charlie Barnes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 16@ W1.0*1211000
W1.0*1211000May 15@ W1.0*1300100
W1.0*1300100Apr 13@ L3.0*6214334
L3.0*6214334J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ W6.08958133
W6.08958133Jun 20vs L5.19856334
L5.19856334Jun 15vs W6.09836201
W6.09836201Jun 9vs W5.29758355
W5.29758355Jun 4@ L6.08882111
L6.08882111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J.T. Ginn
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD—
home starts5.44.424.36.72.7(3)
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-0 vs ATH this season (2 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD have won 4 straight.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-2 vs LAD this season (2 games).
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH have lost 4 straight.
- ATH are 3-2 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 4-1 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 6.6 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 6.0 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.12 (good)ERA 3.272d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
ATH
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 5.892d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- LAD — Charlie Barnes: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- LAD — Charlie Barnes: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD — Charlie Barnes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-16, 2026-05-15 — may affect pitch count or availability
LAD Team Total o5.5 (-132)
Charlie Barnes is essentially a reliever being stretched: 3 starts totaling 5.0 IP (1.67 IP/start average), with BB% of 16% and recent appearances of 1.0 IP and 1.0 IP. He will not last long enough to suppress LAD's elite offense (wRC+ 144 vs RHP, the highest mark in today's slate). ATH bullpen has a 3.67 xERA but ERA of 5.89 in L12, and is elevated (8 IP over 2g) meaning starters go longer — but Barnes simply can't go long. The odds at -132 are borderline per pricing rules; noted with line_warning.