TBR @ 
CLE8:00 PM · Progressive FieldCold
TBR @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Nick Martinez R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%16.8 (elite)BB%10.5 (above)HH%32.5 (below)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%18.9 (above)BB%12.4 (elite)HH%37.7 (avg)
Foster Griffin LO
xERA3.74 (good)ERA2.84 (elite)K%29.8 (elite)Whiff%26.4 (good)BB%0.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%23.7 (elite)Barrel%5.3 (good)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs8.5PC/gs76
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%20.6 (above)BB%7.0 (below)HH%39.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%18.7 (above)BB%8.0 (avg)HH%40.8 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 3.57 (good)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 3.27 (good)ERA 2.67 (elite)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-112-1.5 (+160)O6.5 (-108)CLE-104+1.5 (-187)U6.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-122-0.5 (+126)O3.5 (+106)CLE+100+0.5 (-165)U3.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR3.5 (+120/-135)1.5 (-115/-115)CLE2.5 (-145/+120)1.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNick Martinez2.5 (+126 / -155)12.5 (+100 / +119)Foster Griffin——
Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ 
L2.25017144
L2.25017144Sep 22 '26@ 
L6.09475122
L6.09475122Sep 16 '26vs 
W5.07235022
W5.07235022Sep 10 '26@ 
L6.16832000
L6.16832000Sep 4 '26@ 
W6.19045233
W6.19045233Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26@ 
L6.083710011
L6.083710011Sep 15 '26vs 
W4.08355222
W4.08355222Sep 9 '26@ 
L2.16247288
L2.16247288Sep 4 '26vs 
W6.09238233
W6.09238233Aug 29 '26vs 
L5.08244122
L5.08244122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.50.00elite4.53.50.5(2)
at CLE7.00.00elite4.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25 '26vs W6.08454000
W6.08454000Apr 28 '26@ W7.07843100
W7.07843100Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR—
home starts5.04.20avg4.05.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 15 '26vs W4.08355222
W4.08355222Sep 4 '26vs W6.09238233
W6.09238233Aug 29 '26vs L5.08244122
L5.08244122Trends · TBR
- TBR are 6-4 vs CLE this season (10 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-3 in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 3.0 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 2.8 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-6 vs TBR this season (10 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Foster Griffin's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 3.8 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.6 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 to the over in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-1 to the over in Foster Griffin's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Cold
45°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph SSW
APF 94 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 12
- OPENER: CLE start Shawn Armstrong (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 0.7 IP (longest 1.0)), with Foster Griffin (LHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — TBR's offense line is split against LHP, not the opener's.
- TBR — Nick Martinez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- TBR bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
- CLE bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
- TBR — Nick Martinez: 20 days since last start (2026-09-27) news ↗
- TBR — Nick Martinez: last start: 50 pitches over 2.2 IP news ↗
- TBR — Nick Martinez: 2026-09-27: 4 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.30 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Foster Griffin: 24 days since last start (2026-09-23) news ↗
- CLE — Foster Griffin: 2026-09-09: 8 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 34); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.00 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: BAL 29%, CHW 35%, BOS 26%
- TREND: TBR — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-10-16)
- TREND: CLE — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-10-16)
AI Analysis
The moneyline and spread are close to fair: CLE's offense is elite against right-handed pitching at 137 wRC+ over its last 6 games (132 over the last 12, so this is established form, not a hot streak), but Nick Martinez has shut this same Cleveland lineup out over his two meetings with them this season, which cuts directly against betting that offense to break out tonight. TBR's own offense is only average against lefties at 111 wRC+ over its last 6, and Foster Griffin's three most recent outings include one disaster (8 ER in 2.1 IP) sandwiched by two solid ones, so the full-game total at 6.5 already sits between two matchups that largely cancel out, and a cold 45°F night adds nothing to push it either way. Martinez carries a NO STATS tag for his first outing back this season, which rules out any bet involving his own strikeout or outs numbers, and the card posts no separate prop line for Griffin since he is the bulk arm behind an opener, leaving no pitcher prop to grade on either side.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.