AI Picks · 11 Bets · Aug 30
Janson Junk u2.5 Ks (+128)
Junk has struck out exactly 2 batters in each of his last 3 starts on a 9.1% strikeout rate and a 13.3% whiff rate, and one of those outings was against this same Washington club on Aug 23 (2 K in 4.2 innings). Washington has struck out in 18.9% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games and 19.4% over its last 12, so there is no bat-missing help coming from the other side. His outs line at 14.5 points to another sub-five-inning outing, and three strikeouts is more than he has managed in any start this month at a price paying better than even money.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Will Warren u4.5 Ks (+100)
Boston has struck out in 20.6% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games and just 16.8% over its last 12, so the contact is there in both windows. Warren has averaged 4.0 strikeouts per start over his last 3 while lasting only 4.3 innings per outing with a 12.7% walk rate, and across 3 starts against Boston he has managed 3, 2 and 0 — 1.7 per start. His outs line at 15.5 confirms a short outing, which leaves him roughly 18 hitters to find five strikeouts against a lineup that does not give them up, and the market is pricing this as an even proposition.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Tyler Mahle u5.5 Ks (+112)
Mahle has a 20.0% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts with 7, 3 and 4 strikeouts, an average of 4.7 per outing across 5.9 innings. Colorado has struck out in only 19.9% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games, down from 23.0% over its last 12, and across 3 starts against this club Mahle has averaged 4.7 strikeouts — 5, 5 and 4. Six requires his best recent outing repeated against the lineup that has given him the fewest, and the under is the plus-money side of a market that expects the opposite.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Robbie Ray u4.5 Ks (+132)
Tampa Bay has struck out in only 11.9% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games, with a 10.5% whiff rate, and the last-12 figure of 15.8% is barely higher — this lineup puts the ball in play against lefties. Ray's 4, 4 and 5 strikeout totals over his last 3 starts came against New York (29% K rate) and Pittsburgh (30%), opponents that inflate any arm's totals, and his own K rate over that window is a modest 20.6% across 5.1 innings per start. Getting five strikeouts out of roughly 20 hitters who make this much contact is the harder half of this market, yet the under is the plus-money side.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Framber Valdez u4.5 Ks (-147)
Valdez has a 9.9% strikeout rate and a 13.2% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, producing 3, 5 and 0 strikeouts — an average of 2.7 per outing despite going 5.8 innings each time. The Dodgers have struck out in 22.5% of their plate appearances against left-handed pitching over their last 6 games and 22.9% over their last 12, an ordinary rate that does nothing to lift a pitcher who is not missing bats. The juice buys a number he has cleared once in three tries, and rain risk at Comerica only adds to the chance the outing is cut short.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Parker Messick u18.5 Outs (+154)
Messick has averaged 6.1 innings per start over his last 3 — 17, 20 and 18 outs — and 5.2 innings per start across his last 3 at home, so clearing 18.5 requires him to go past six innings, something he has done once in his last six outings. He needed 102, 98 and 94 pitches for those innings, and Kansas City's lineup has posted a 139 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over its last 12 games with a 42.2% hard-hit rate over its last 6, which is not a group that lets a starter cruise. Cleveland's bullpen has a 2.28 xERA over its last 12 games and normal rest, giving no reason to push him for a seventh, yet the market prices this line as a coin flip.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Dustin May u4.5 Ks (+113)
May has a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 19.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, with 6, 1 and 0 strikeouts and just 3.1 innings per outing, including a one-pitch exit in his most recent appearance. Texas has struck out in 20.3% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games, down from 25.1% over its last 12, and is squaring the ball up at a 137 wRC+ on that recent window, which shortens outings rather than lengthening them. His outs line at 14.5 caps him near five innings, and five strikeouts from roughly 20 hitters at his current rate is above anything he has produced in a month.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
M. Liberatore o5.5 Ks (-115)
Pittsburgh has struck out in 30.4% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games and 29.7% over its last 12, with a 30.0% whiff rate on the same recent window — the same profile in both windows. Liberatore carries a 34.9% K rate over his last 3 starts with 6, 9 and 7 strikeouts, and across 3 meetings with Pittsburgh he has averaged 8.0 per start, going 7, 8 and 9. Even his shortest recent outing, 4.0 innings against Baltimore, produced 7 strikeouts, so the six needed here does not require length he has not been getting.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Zac Thornton o3.5 Ks (-120)
Thornton's 2, 7 and 4 strikeout totals over his last 3 starts came against Atlanta (18%), San Diego (18%) and Milwaukee (12%) — three of the lowest strikeout lineups he could have drawn — and he still averaged 4.3 per outing on an 18.6% K rate across 5.7 innings per start. Houston strikes out far more: 21.7% over its last 6 games against left-handed pitching and 29.2% over its last 12. Four strikeouts from roughly 22 hitters is a routine outing for him, and the price treats it as barely better than even.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Yusei Kikuchi u5.5 Ks (-137)
Philadelphia has struck out in just 8.5% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games, and 8.6% over its last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is an established contact profile rather than a hot week. Kikuchi has averaged 3.3 strikeouts per start over his last 3 with a 18.5% K rate and only 4.0 innings per outing, and his outs line at 16.5 caps the plate appearances available. Six strikeouts would be nearly double what he has managed in any of those three starts against a lineup that barely swings and misses, and the price still treats this as close to a coin flip.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Zack Wheeler u17.5 Outs (+130)
Wheeler has gone 5.0, 5.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 15 and 12 outs, none of them reaching this number — while walking 14.7% of the hitters he has faced. His last time out he needed 103 pitches to get 12 outs, and a 43.9% hard-hit rate over that window says the traffic is real. Six full innings is two outs beyond anything he has produced recently, and the market is asking better than 60% for it.
Found at 9:12 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
MIA @
WSN✓12:15 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @
WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Janson Junk R
xERA4.26 (avg)ERA2.53 (elite)K%9.1 (poor)Whiff%13.3 (below)
More Stats
HH%30.6 (good)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs55BB%4.5 (elite)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+127 (above)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%29.1 (poor)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%19.4 (above)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%30.3 (below)
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA5.07 (below)ERA3.52 (good)K%23.8 (good)Whiff%24.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs76BB%9.5 (avg)
MIA vs LHP
L6
wRC+74 (poor)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%31.3 (below)
L12
wRC+81 (below)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%25.3 (below)HH%32.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 4.47 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 4.88 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-113-1.5 (+140)O9.5 (+100)WSN+105+1.5 (-160)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-110-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-146)WSN-108+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (-120/-106)2.5 (+110/-140)WSN4.5 (+108/-135)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJanson Junk2.5 (-160 / +128)14.5 (-112 / -114)Andrew Alvarez4.5 (+133 / -162)15.5 (+112 / -138)
Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26vs
W1.0*800000
W1.0*800000Aug 23vs
W4.26922011
W4.26922011Aug 17@
L5.08828222
L5.08828222Aug 12vs
W6.08124112
W6.08124112Aug 6@
L3.04715122
L3.04715122Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
L4.28165233
L4.28165233Aug 20@
L5.07554311
L5.07554311Aug 14@
L5.27342122
L5.27342122Aug 8vs
W5.17323111
W5.17323111Aug 3@
L6.18153322
L6.18153322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.86.92poor3.75.71.3(3)
at WSN—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23vs
W4.26922011
W4.26922011May 9vs
W6.09467244
W6.09467244Sep 8vs
L4.18638266
L4.18638266Andrew Alvarez
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA4.60.98elite4.52.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 3vs
L4.28254111
L4.28254111Sep 1vs
W5.08141200
W5.08141200home starts4.73.87avg4.04.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
L4.28165233
L4.28165233Aug 8vs
W5.17323111
W5.17323111Trends · MIA
- MIA are 8-3 vs WSN this season (11 games).
- MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 5.4 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.2 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 to the over in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-0 to the over in Janson Junk's last 3 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-8 vs MIA this season (11 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 1-4 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 2.6 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.0 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph SSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- MIA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- WSN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- MIA — Janson Junk: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-26
- MIA — Janson Junk: last start: 69 pitches over 4.2 IP
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
Janson Junk u2.5 Ks (+128)
Junk has struck out exactly 2 batters in each of his last 3 starts on a 9.1% strikeout rate and a 13.3% whiff rate, and one of those outings was against this same Washington club on Aug 23 (2 K in 4.2 innings). Washington has struck out in 18.9% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games and 19.4% over its last 12, so there is no bat-missing help coming from the other side. His outs line at 14.5 points to another sub-five-inning outing, and three strikeouts is more than he has managed in any start this month at a price paying better than even money.
COL @
ATL✓1:35 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
COL @
ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Mason Adams R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+118 (above)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%33.7 (below)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%23.2 (avg)HH%40.6 (above)
Tyler Mahle R
xERA5.51 (poor)ERA2.04 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%25.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs88BB%4.3 (elite)
COL vs RHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%24.7 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%23.0 (avg)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.53 (below)ERA 4.17 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.25 (good)ERA 2.04 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+216+1.5 (-105)O8.5 (-105)ATL-225-1.5 (-114)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+172+0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-128)ATL-220-0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (+112/-140)1.5 (-115/-115)ATL4.5 (-130/+105)2.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMason Adams3.5 (-125 / +103)14.5 (-135 / +110)Tyler Mahle5.5 (-125 / +112)17.5 (-132 / +104)
Mason Adams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@
W4.07553311
W4.07553311Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@
W5.09446211
W5.09446211Aug 18@
L6.27636122
L6.27636122Aug 12vs
W6.09374011
W6.09374011Aug 7@
L6.09293200
L6.09293200Aug 1@
L5.29995255
L5.29995255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.72.62elite4.75.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11vs
W7.010445311
W7.010445311Jul 5@
L4.17558034
L4.17558034May 12vs
W6.18854111
W6.18854111home starts6.30.95elite4.74.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W6.09374011
W6.09374011Jul 27vs
W6.08833200
W6.08833200Jul 11vs
W7.010445311
W7.010445311Trends · COL
- COL are 0-5 vs ATL this season (5 games).
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 1-0 in Mason Adams's last 1 starts.
- COL are 1-0 in Mason Adams's last 1 away starts.
- COL average 3.0 runs/game in Mason Adams's last 1 starts.
- COL average 3.0 runs/game in Mason Adams's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 5-0 vs COL this season (5 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL have won 6 straight.
- ATL are 2-2 in Tyler Mahle's last 4 starts.
- ATL are 1-0 in Tyler Mahle's last 1 home starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 4 starts.
- ATL average 6.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 1-3 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 4 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ESE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- COL — Mason Adams: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- COL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- ATL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- COL — Mason Adams: last start: 75 pitches over 4.0 IP
Tyler Mahle u5.5 Ks (+112)
Mahle has a 20.0% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts with 7, 3 and 4 strikeouts, an average of 4.7 per outing across 5.9 innings. Colorado has struck out in only 19.9% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games, down from 23.0% over its last 12, and across 3 starts against this club Mahle has averaged 4.7 strikeouts — 5, 5 and 4. Six requires his best recent outing repeated against the lineup that has given him the fewest, and the under is the plus-money side of a market that expects the opposite.
BOS @
NYY✓1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
BOS @
NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ranger Suarez L
xERA3.60 (good)ERA3.52 (good)K%13.4 (below)Whiff%18.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%25.0 (elite)Barrel%2.1 (elite)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs89BB%10.4 (below)
NYY vs LHP
L6
wRC+84 (below)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+91 (below)K%26.1 (below)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%41.0 (above)
Will Warren R
xERA4.69 (below)ERA6.23 (poor)K%19.1 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%61.9 (poor)Barrel%9.5 (avg)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs89BB%12.7 (below)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+62 (poor)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%25.1 (below)HH%33.0 (below)
L12
wRC+118 (above)K%16.8 (above)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%32.4 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 2.54 (elite)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 2.90 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-116-1.5 (+138)O8.0 (-105)NYY+112+1.5 (-154)U8.0 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-120-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (+100)NYY-102+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+116/-145)1.5 (-154/+120)NYY3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez5.5 (+110 / -137)16.5 (-125 / -105)Will Warren4.5 (-118 / +100)15.5 (-108 / -118)
Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@
W5.09344411
W5.09344411Aug 18vs
W5.19334244
W5.19334244Aug 12@
L5.08126111
L5.08126111Aug 6vs
W3.07033234
W3.07033234Jul 31@
W4.26524233
W4.26524233Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
L5.09747223
L5.09747223Aug 19@
W4.09053222
W4.09053222Aug 12vs
W4.08136455
W4.08136455Aug 5vs
L5.19157133
L5.19157133Jul 31@
W6.28874000
W6.28874000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.23.48good6.06.01.0(3)
at NYY5.71.59elite7.06.50.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 7@
L6.19066011
L6.19066011Apr 22vs
L4.27145244
L4.27145244Jul 26@
W5.210887111
W5.210887111Will Warren
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS4.710.14poor1.78.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@
L5.29007355
L5.29007355Sep 14@
L5.089210166
L5.089210166Aug 23vs
L4.06937355
L4.06937355home starts4.76.38poor4.06.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
L5.09747223
L5.09747223Aug 12vs
W4.08136455
W4.08136455Aug 5vs
L5.19157133
L5.19157133Trends · BOS
- BOS are 6-7 vs NYY this season (13 games).
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 7.6 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 6.0 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-2 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-1 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 7-6 vs BOS this season (13 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-4 in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 5.0 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.4 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-1 to the over in Will Warren's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph SSW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-08-18: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
- NYY — Will Warren: 2026-08-12: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.05 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Will Warren u4.5 Ks (+100)
Boston has struck out in 20.6% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games and just 16.8% over its last 12, so the contact is there in both windows. Warren has averaged 4.0 strikeouts per start over his last 3 while lasting only 4.3 innings per outing with a 12.7% walk rate, and across 3 starts against Boston he has managed 3, 2 and 0 — 1.7 per start. His outs line at 15.5 confirms a short outing, which leaves him roughly 18 hitters to find five strikeouts against a lineup that does not give them up, and the market is pricing this as an even proposition.
SEA @
TOR1:37 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
SEA @
TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Logan Gilbert R
xERA3.25 (good)ERA2.81 (elite)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%27.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs99BB%10.4 (below)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+103 (avg)K%14.1 (elite)Whiff%15.6 (elite)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%15.9 (elite)Whiff%17.5 (elite)HH%34.1 (below)
Max Scherzer R
xERA3.18 (good)ERA6.43 (poor)K%14.1 (below)Whiff%21.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%22.2 (elite)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%15.6 (poor)
SEA vs RHP
L6
wRC+93 (below)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%33.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 5.09 (below)ERA 7.51 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.09 (good)ERA 3.74 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-132-1.5 (+125)O8.0 (-109)TOR+125+1.5 (-142)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-154-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-108)TOR+132+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)TOR3.5 (-106/-115)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Gilbert4.5 (-155 / +128)18.5 (+150 / +148)Max Scherzer4.5 (+114 / -140)15.5 (+136 / -171)
Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs
W5.010255222
W5.010255222Aug 19@
W5.010054433
W5.010054433Aug 13@
W6.09574100
W6.09574100Aug 7vs
L6.29564422
L6.29564422Aug 1vs
W7.09665133
W7.09665133Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
L5.09244522
L5.09244522Aug 19@
L4.07315377
L4.07315377Aug 13vs
L5.09243211
L5.09243211Aug 8@
W5.18445022
W5.18445022Aug 2vs
L6.08454111
L6.08454111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Gilbert
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.71.59elite8.04.01.0(2)
at TOR4.24.29avg9.07.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4vs
W7.19171000
W7.19171000Apr 19@
W4.210297222
W4.210297222Max Scherzer
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA—
home starts5.32.25elite4.33.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
L5.09244522
L5.09244522Aug 13vs
L5.09243211
L5.09243211Aug 2vs
L6.08454111
L6.08454111Trends · SEA
- SEA are 2-3 vs TOR this season (5 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 4-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 3-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 4.4 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 3.6 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-3 to the over in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-1 to the over in Logan Gilbert's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-2 vs SEA this season (5 games).
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 1-4 in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 0-5 in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 3.4 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 2.8 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 3-2 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-2 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
71°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph SSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- SEA bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.09 over its last 12
- SEA — Logan Gilbert: last start: 102 pitches over 5.0 IP
- TOR — Max Scherzer: 2026-08-19: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.70 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Toronto at 103 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over its last 6 and Seattle at 93 make this the even matchup the 8.0 total describes, and while Seattle's bullpen carries a 5.09 xERA over its last 12, the -132 price already reflects Gilbert's 3.25 xERA over his last 3. Gilbert's strikeout line of 4.5 is juiced to -155 and sits under his 5.7 per start, while his outs line of 18.5 asks for six-plus innings from a starter averaging 5.3 innings per start — neither side pays. Scherzer's 4.5 strikeout line matches a Toronto-facing Seattle lineup at 25.0% strikeouts and his own 3.0 per start over his last 3, and his outs under at 15.5 is already -171 for a 4.7-inning starter.
KCR @
CLE✓1:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
KCR @
CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Seth Lugo R
xERA3.58 (good)ERA6.32 (poor)K%17.6 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%3.7 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs90BB%1.5 (elite)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%14.5 (elite)HH%34.4 (below)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%18.4 (above)Whiff%16.1 (elite)HH%35.7 (avg)
Parker Messick L
xERA1.91 (elite)ERA1.96 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)Whiff%28.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%21.7 (elite)Barrel%2.2 (elite)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%4.3 (elite)
KCR vs LHP
L6
wRC+104 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%27.3 (below)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+139 (elite)K%17.1 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%42.7 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 3.32 (good)2d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.28 (elite)ERA 2.42 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+170+1.5 (-136)O7.5 (-105)CLE-181-1.5 (+120)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+150+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (+112)CLE-188-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (+120/+124)1.5 (-105/-125)CLE4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo3.5 (-138 / +109)16.5 (-117 / -106)Parker Messick5.5 (-161 / +132)18.5 (+148 / +154)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@
W5.08956111
W5.08956111Aug 19vs
W6.09639055
W6.09639055Aug 14@
W4.28647055
W4.28647055Aug 8vs
W6.09055133
W6.09055133Aug 2@
L5.09935555
L5.09935555Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@
W6.09443111
W6.09443111Aug 19vs
L6.298106011
L6.298106011Aug 13@
L5.210263222
L5.210263222Aug 7@
W7.09784122
W7.09784122Aug 1vs
L4.19166112
L4.19166112SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE4.57.00poor4.55.53.5(2)
at CLE—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 7vs
L4.010257444
L4.010257444Mar 29vs
W5.08644333
W5.08644333Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts5.21.74elite7.35.30.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs
L6.298106011
L6.298106011Aug 1vs
L4.19166112
L4.19166112Jul 21vs
W5.28864012
W5.28864012Trends · KCR
- KCR are 5-4 vs CLE this season (9 games).
- KCR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 4-1 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 5.6 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 3.4 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-5 vs KCR this season (9 games).
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-4 in Parker Messick's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 4.0 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Parker Messick's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- KCR bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
Parker Messick u18.5 Outs (+154)
Messick has averaged 6.1 innings per start over his last 3 — 17, 20 and 18 outs — and 5.2 innings per start across his last 3 at home, so clearing 18.5 requires him to go past six innings, something he has done once in his last six outings. He needed 102, 98 and 94 pitches for those innings, and Kansas City's lineup has posted a 139 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over its last 12 games with a 42.2% hard-hit rate over its last 6, which is not a group that lets a starter cruise. Cleveland's bullpen has a 2.28 xERA over its last 12 games and normal rest, giving no reason to push him for a seventh, yet the market prices this line as a coin flip.
LAD @
DET✓1:40 PM · Comerica ParkRainy
LAD @
DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Glasnow R
xERA2.91 (elite)ERA4.63 (below)K%36.7 (elite)Whiff%32.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs67BB%12.2 (below)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+37 (poor)K%25.5 (below)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%42.0 (above)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%38.3 (avg)
Framber Valdez L
xERA5.27 (poor)ERA5.71 (poor)K%9.9 (poor)Whiff%13.2 (below)
More Stats
HH%47.5 (poor)Barrel%6.6 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs92BB%13.6 (poor)
LAD vs LHP
L6
wRC+76 (poor)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%22.9 (poor)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%30.4 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.38 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 4.36 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-168-1.5 (+104)O7.5 (+100)DET+162+1.5 (-119)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-166-0.5 (-110)O3.5 (-138)DET+135+0.5 (-118)U3.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (+110/-130)2.5 (+130/-166)DET2.5 (-145/+116)1.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Glasnow6.5 (+104 / -120)17.5 (-102 / -112)Framber Valdez4.5 (+118 / -147)17.5 (-138 / +120)
Tyler Glasnow · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@
L5.08976033
L5.08976033May 6@
W1.01921011
W1.01921011Apr 29vs
L5.29293622
L5.29293622Apr 23@
W8.010591100
W8.010591100Apr 17@
W7.09272211
W7.09272211Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs
L6.08408234
L6.08408234Aug 17@
W5.29155445
W5.29155445Aug 12vs
L5.210236544
L5.210236544Aug 6@
W7.09555200
W7.09555200Aug 1@
W7.09669222
W7.09669222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.06.00poor7.07.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5@
W6.010277244
W6.010277244home starts5.45.00below2.36.03.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs
L6.08408234
L6.08408234Aug 12vs
L5.210236544
L5.210236544Jul 26vs
L5.09744323
L5.09744323Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-1 vs DET this season (2 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 3-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 5.4 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 7.0 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · DET
- DET are 1-1 vs LAD this season (2 games).
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 3-2 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-4 in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 6.4 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET average 3.8 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 0-10 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 3-2 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-2 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Rainy
72°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph S
APF 102 — Neutral · Rain possible (31%)
Flags · 5
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: avg 3.9 IP/gs over his last 3
- DET bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: 2026-05-06: 1 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.43 ERA equivalent
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: low-K outing 2026-05-06 (2 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
- WEATHER: rain risk 31% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
Framber Valdez u4.5 Ks (-147)
Valdez has a 9.9% strikeout rate and a 13.2% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, producing 3, 5 and 0 strikeouts — an average of 2.7 per outing despite going 5.8 innings each time. The Dodgers have struck out in 22.5% of their plate appearances against left-handed pitching over their last 6 games and 22.9% over their last 12, an ordinary rate that does nothing to lift a pitcher who is not missing bats. The juice buys a number he has cleared once in three tries, and rain risk at Comerica only adds to the chance the outing is cut short.
SDP @
TBR✓1:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
SDP @
TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Robbie Ray L
xERA4.16 (avg)ERA2.93 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs91BB%12.7 (below)
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+89 (below)K%11.9 (elite)Whiff%10.5 (elite)HH%30.6 (below)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%15.8 (elite)Whiff%15.1 (elite)HH%32.5 (below)
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA3.47 (good)ERA4.50 (below)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs91BB%4.6 (elite)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+89 (below)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%42.1 (above)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%22.9 (avg)HH%40.8 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 1.60 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 3.40 (good)ERA 3.80 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+152+1.5 (-155)O7.5 (+105)TBR-163-1.5 (+130)U7.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+144+0.5 (-113)O3.5 (-148)TBR-166-0.5 (-115)U3.5 (+114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (+114/+116)1.5 (+100/-130)TBR3.5 (-130/+120)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URobbie Ray4.5 (+121 / +132)16.5 (-102 / -122)Drew Rasmussen5.5 (+115 / -136)17.5 (+110 / -128)
Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs
L5.19955222
L5.19955222Aug 18@
W6.09143311
W6.09143311Aug 12vs
W4.08442322
W4.08442322Aug 7vs
L5.09227544
L5.09227544Jul 30@
W6.08664111
W6.08664111Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@
W6.010353011
W6.010353011Aug 19vs
W5.08657255
W5.08657255Aug 12@
W5.08434122
W5.08434122Aug 7@
W7.09182200
W7.09182200Aug 1vs
W6.096104100
W6.096104100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Robbie Ray
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.14.43avg5.04.00.0(1)
at TBR6.14.43avg5.04.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 1@
L6.110254033
L6.110254033Drew Rasmussen
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP—
home starts6.02.50elite8.04.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs
W5.08657255
W5.08657255Aug 1vs
W6.096104100
W6.096104100Jul 26vs
W7.08791100
W7.08791100Trends · SDP
- SDP are 0-2 vs TBR this season (2 games).
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 2-3 in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-0 in Robbie Ray's last 1 away starts.
- SDP average 3.0 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 5.0 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 1-4 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 2-0 vs SDP this season (2 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.4 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 3.6 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 1-4 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 4
- SDP — Robbie Ray: Whiff% 28.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 20.6 shows
- SDP — Robbie Ray: recent opponents high-K: NYM 29%, PIT 30%
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: last start: 103 pitches over 6.0 IP
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: 2026-08-19: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.55 ERA equivalent
Robbie Ray u4.5 Ks (+132)
Tampa Bay has struck out in only 11.9% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games, with a 10.5% whiff rate, and the last-12 figure of 15.8% is barely higher — this lineup puts the ball in play against lefties. Ray's 4, 4 and 5 strikeout totals over his last 3 starts came against New York (29% K rate) and Pittsburgh (30%), opponents that inflate any arm's totals, and his own K rate over that window is a modest 20.6% across 5.1 innings per start. Getting five strikeouts out of roughly 20 hitters who make this much contact is the harder half of this market, yet the under is the plus-money side.
CHW @
MIN2:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
CHW @
MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Anthony Kay LBULK
Opener: Jordan Hicks (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA3.55 (good)ERA5.06 (below)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.0 (avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%5.8 (good)
MIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+63 (poor)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%27.1 (poor)
L12
wRC+83 (below)K%18.8 (above)Whiff%19.0 (above)HH%29.3 (poor)
Zebby Matthews R
xERA3.27 (good)ERA3.06 (good)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%5.8 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs96BB%5.6 (good)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+116 (above)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%31.5 (below)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%26.9 (below)HH%34.0 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.71 (good)ERA 3.11 (good)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 4.26 (avg)ERA 6.57 (poor)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+110-1.5 (+160)O8.5 (-114)MIN-115-1.5 (+168)U8.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-122)MIN-120-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW4.5 (+110/+112)2.5 (+120/-154)MIN4.5 (+116/-135)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAnthony Kay——Zebby Matthews4.5 (-140 / +123)17.5 (-104 / -115)
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
W4.29946244
W4.29946244Aug 20vs
L6.09465122
L6.09465122Aug 15@
W5.18646133
W5.18646133Aug 8vs
W6.08346122
W6.08346122Aug 2@
W6.18937100
W6.18937100Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@
W7.010576111
W7.010576111Aug 18vs
W5.29045111
W5.29045111Aug 12vs
W5.09446244
W5.09446244Aug 7@
W5.08347236
W5.08347236Jul 31@
W5.0101104233
W5.0101104233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.01.50elite5.05.01.0(1)
at MIN—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 25vs
W6.09455111
W6.09455111Zebby Matthews
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.44.44avg5.05.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 25@
L6.08865133
L6.08865133Sep 3vs
L6.08453211
L6.08453211Aug 22@
W4.29348344
W4.29348344home starts5.43.89avg3.04.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs
W5.29045111
W5.29045111Aug 12vs
W5.09446244
W5.09446244Jul 24vs
L6.09213322
L6.09213322Trends · CHW
- CHW are 6-3 vs MIN this season (9 games).
- CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW have won 4 straight.
- CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 6.0 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 6.4 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 3-2 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 3-6 vs CHW this season (9 games).
- MIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN have lost 4 straight.
- MIN are 5-0 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-3 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 6.6 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 3.0 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-3 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph E
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- OPENER: CHW start Jordan Hicks (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.2 IP (longest 1.7)), with Anthony Kay (LHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — MIN's offense line is split against LHP, not the opener's.
- CHW bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- MIN bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- CHW — Anthony Kay: 2026-08-25: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.15 ERA equivalent
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: last start: 105 pitches over 7.0 IP
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-08-12: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.51 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
AI Analysis
Minnesota's 63 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games is genuinely poor, but Chicago opening with Jordan Hicks before Anthony Kay puts a bullpen already at 5.0 innings of recent work into the middle of the game, and the +110 price is not far enough from that read to bet. Matthews' strikeout line of 4.5 matches his 5.0 per start over his last 3 and his 5.0 per start across 3 meetings with the White Sox, and his outs line of 17.5 sits on the 5.9 innings per start he has been going. The card posts no props for Kay, and an opener game gives no usable number on him anyway.
TEX @
MIL✓2:10 PM · American Family FieldRainy, Windy
TEX @
MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kumar Rocker R
xERA3.76 (avg)ERA4.02 (avg)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%12.5 (below)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+138 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%44.6 (above)
L12
wRC+151 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%49.7 (elite)
Dustin May R
xERA5.40 (poor)ERA7.71 (poor)K%16.7 (below)Whiff%19.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs3.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs50BB%9.5 (avg)
TEX vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%36.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+83 (below)K%25.1 (below)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.25 (avg)ERA 5.40 (poor)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 1.20 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+151+1.5 (-149)O8.5 (-105)MIL-158-1.5 (+130)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+130+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-115)MIL-164-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (-113/-105)1.5 (-135/+105)MIL4.5 (+100/-115)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker4.5 (-110 / -107)15.5 (+128 / -154)Dustin May4.5 (-130 / +113)14.5 (-159 / +132)
Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@
W5.29385322
W5.29385322Aug 19vs
L5.09236122
L5.09236122Aug 14@
L5.09434533
L5.09434533Aug 9vs
L3.06957266
L3.06957266Aug 2@
L5.188510233
L5.188510233Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26@
W0.1100000
W0.1100000Aug 19vs
L2.06617277
L2.06617277Aug 12@
L7.08364211
L7.08364211Aug 6vs
W6.09753322
W6.09753322Jul 29vs
W5.07031200
W5.07031200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.25.19below9.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 2vs
L5.29095233
L5.29095233home starts4.36.23poor3.03.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs
L2.06617277
L2.06617277Aug 6vs
W6.09753322
W6.09753322Jul 29vs
W5.07031200
W5.07031200Trends · TEX
- TEX are 0-2 vs MIL this season (2 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX have lost 4 straight.
- TEX are 1-4 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 4.4 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.8 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 3-2 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-1 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-0 vs TEX this season (2 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL have won 4 straight.
- MIL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-1 in Dustin May's last 3 home starts.
- MIL average 5.0 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.0 runs/game in Dustin May's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-1 to the over in Dustin May's last 3 starts.
Weather · Rainy, Windy
85°F, Overcast, Wind 17 mph SSW
APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (5%)
Flags · 7
- MIL — Dustin May: avg 3.1 IP/gs over his last 3
- TEX bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- MIL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- MIL — Dustin May: last start: 1 pitches over 0.1 IP
- MIL — Dustin May: 2026-08-19: 7 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 32); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.64 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: rain risk 5% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
- WEATHER: wind Cross Wind R 17 mph from the SSW
Dustin May u4.5 Ks (+113)
May has a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 19.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, with 6, 1 and 0 strikeouts and just 3.1 innings per outing, including a one-pitch exit in his most recent appearance. Texas has struck out in 20.3% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games, down from 25.1% over its last 12, and is squaring the ball up at a 137 wRC+ on that recent window, which shortens outings rather than lengthening them. His outs line at 14.5 caps him near five innings, and five strikeouts from roughly 20 hitters at his current rate is above anything he has produced in a month.
PIT @
STL✓2:15 PM · Busch StadiumHot
PIT @
STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Braxton Ashcraft R
xERA3.02 (good)ERA1.17 (elite)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%20.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%45.8 (poor)Barrel%6.8 (good)IP/gs7.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs85BB%2.6 (elite)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+74 (poor)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%41.0 (above)
L12
wRC+82 (below)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%23.4 (avg)HH%41.6 (above)
M. Liberatore L
xERA4.10 (avg)ERA7.63 (poor)K%34.9 (elite)Whiff%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%3.2 (elite)
PIT vs LHP
L6
wRC+66 (poor)K%30.4 (poor)Whiff%30.0 (poor)HH%28.4 (poor)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%29.7 (poor)Whiff%27.7 (below)HH%35.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 2.30 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 6.62 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-113-1.5 (+146)O8.0 (-102)STL+106+1.5 (-170)U7.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-125-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-102)STL+102+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (-145/+118)2.5 (+124/-160)STL3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBraxton Ashcraft5.5 (+123 / -150)17.5 (-180 / +148)M. Liberatore5.5 (-115 / -101)16.5 (-133 / +106)
Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@
W6.09124111
W6.09124111Aug 18vs
W8.08045011
W8.08045011Aug 13@
W9.085103111
W9.085103111Aug 6@
L5.08253134
L5.08253134Aug 1@
W5.06952111
W5.06952111M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
L4.09178188
L4.09178188Aug 19@
L6.010094033
L6.010094033Aug 14@
L5.19562122
L5.19562122Aug 8vs
L5.09439255
L5.09439255Aug 2@
W6.08571100
W6.08571100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Braxton Ashcraft
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.44.42avg7.04.72.0(3)
at STL6.11.48elite7.04.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 21@
W7.09894211
W7.09894211Apr 28vs
L4.18776366
L4.18776366Aug 28@
L5.27354111
L5.27354111M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.85.20below8.06.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 19vs
W4.27797244
W4.27797244May 6vs
W7.09983311
W7.09983311Apr 7@
L6.18978055
L6.18978055home starts4.111.80poor5.08.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
L4.09178188
L4.09178188Aug 8vs
L5.09439255
L5.09439255Jul 27vs
L3.26758233
L3.26758233Trends · PIT
- PIT are 3-6 vs STL this season (9 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 4-1 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 5.2 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 5.4 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 2-3 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-2 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 3 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 6-3 vs PIT this season (9 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-4 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-4 in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 3.2 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 3-2 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-0 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hot
92°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph S
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: high-K outing 2026-08-13 (10 Ks vs avg 5.3 over his last 3)
- PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: low-K outing 2026-08-24 (2 Ks vs avg 5.3 over his last 3)
- STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-08-25: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.01 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
M. Liberatore o5.5 Ks (-115)
Pittsburgh has struck out in 30.4% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games and 29.7% over its last 12, with a 30.0% whiff rate on the same recent window — the same profile in both windows. Liberatore carries a 34.9% K rate over his last 3 starts with 6, 9 and 7 strikeouts, and across 3 meetings with Pittsburgh he has averaged 8.0 per start, going 7, 8 and 9. Even his shortest recent outing, 4.0 innings against Baltimore, produced 7 strikeouts, so the six needed here does not require length he has not been getting.
HOU @
NYM✓3:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
HOU @
NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ethan Pecko R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+73 (poor)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+98 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Zac Thornton L
xERA3.76 (avg)ERA3.71 (good)K%18.6 (avg)Whiff%19.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%2.9 (elite)
HOU vs LHP
L6
wRC+246 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%27.9 (below)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%29.2 (poor)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 5.21 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 2.81 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+111+1.5 (-190)O9.0 (-105)NYM-119-1.5 (+162)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+110+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-146)NYM-135-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)NYM4.5 (-106/-120)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEthan Pecko3.5 (-106 / -120)14.5 (-115 / +110)Zac Thornton3.5 (-120 / +109)15.5 (-124 / -107)
Ethan Pecko · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@
W4.18815455
W4.18815455Aug 19vs
W3.28943322
W3.28943322Zac Thornton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
W6.08947011
W6.08947011Aug 18vs
L5.09977133
L5.09977133Aug 12@
L6.08027133
L6.08027133Aug 7@
W5.06334200
W5.06334200Aug 1vs
L4.29426334
L4.29426334SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zac Thornton
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU—
home starts5.14.14avg4.36.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25vs
W6.08947011
W6.08947011Aug 18vs
L5.09977133
L5.09977133Aug 1vs
L4.29426334
L4.29426334Trends · HOU
- HOU are 1-1 vs NYM this season (2 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 2-0 in Ethan Pecko's last 2 starts.
- HOU are 1-0 in Ethan Pecko's last 1 away starts.
- HOU average 6.0 runs/game in Ethan Pecko's last 2 starts.
- HOU average 9.0 runs/game in Ethan Pecko's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-1 vs HOU this season (2 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 2-3 in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Zac Thornton's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 3.2 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.6 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 2-3 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 0-3 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- HOU — Ethan Pecko: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- HOU bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- NYM — Zac Thornton: recent opponents low-K: ATL 18%, SDP 18%, MIL 12%
Zac Thornton o3.5 Ks (-120)
Thornton's 2, 7 and 4 strikeout totals over his last 3 starts came against Atlanta (18%), San Diego (18%) and Milwaukee (12%) — three of the lowest strikeout lineups he could have drawn — and he still averaged 4.3 per outing on an 18.6% K rate across 5.7 innings per start. Houston strikes out far more: 21.7% over its last 6 games against left-handed pitching and 29.2% over its last 12. Four strikeouts from roughly 22 hitters is a routine outing for him, and the price treats it as barely better than even.
BAL @
ATH4:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
BAL @
ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Chris Bassitt R
xERA4.02 (avg)ERA3.06 (good)K%18.9 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs94BB%5.4 (good)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+127 (above)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%28.6 (poor)HH%36.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%35.1 (avg)
Jeffrey Springs L
xERA4.71 (below)ERA5.02 (below)K%8.8 (poor)Whiff%18.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%27.5 (elite)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%14.7 (poor)
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+141 (elite)K%26.5 (below)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%46.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+91 (below)K%27.4 (below)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%47.2 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.69 (elite)ERA 2.06 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 4.59 (below)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-140-1.5 (+105)O10.0 (-115)ATH+136+1.5 (-124)U10.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-135-0.5 (-113)O5.5 (-118)ATH+122+0.5 (-115)U5.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL5.5 (-111/-115)2.5 (-125/-105)ATH4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChris Bassitt4.5 (+100 / -123)17.5 (+102 / +105)Jeffrey Springs4.5 (+124 / -146)15.5 (+134 / -175)
Chris Bassitt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25@
W6.29956011
W6.29956011Aug 19vs
L5.29568133
L5.29568133Aug 14@
W5.18835322
W5.18835322Jun 3@
L3.05616233
L3.05616233May 28vs
L6.08024111
L6.08024111Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs
L4.28937244
L4.28937244Aug 19@
L5.28515322
L5.28515322Jul 31vs
L4.08624522
L4.08624522Jul 26@
L1.13604145
L1.13604145Jul 20@
W5.07826122
W5.07826122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chris Bassitt
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.09.00poor6.07.02.0(1)
at ATH—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 30vs
W5.08267255
W5.08267255Jeffrey Springs
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL—
home starts4.48.12poor2.36.33.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24vs
L4.28937244
L4.28937244Jul 31vs
L4.08624522
L4.08624522Jun 30vs
L5.19228466
L5.19228466Trends · BAL
- BAL are 3-2 vs ATH this season (5 games).
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 2-3 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 6.4 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 2-1 to the over in Chris Bassitt's last 3 starts.
- BAL are 2-0 to the over in Chris Bassitt's last 2 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-3 vs BAL this season (5 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 5.4 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 6.2 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 4-1 to the over in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-0 to the over in Jeffrey Springs's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph WSW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Whiff% 18.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 8.8 shows
- ATH bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-22
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: 2026-08-24: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.98 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
The posted total of 10.0 already accounts for Springs' 4.71 xERA and 14.7% walk rate over his last 3 and for Oakland's 127 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6, and Baltimore's 141 wRC+ versus lefties over its last 6 sits against just 91 over its last 12, so the moneyline at -140 is priced about right. Bassitt's strikeout line of 4.5 matches his 4.7 per start over his last 3 and his outs line of 17.5 sits right on his 5.9 innings per start, leaving nothing on either. Springs' outs under at 15.5 is already -175 for a 4.8-inning starter, and his strikeout number runs into a Baltimore lineup striking out 26.5% of the time over its last 6, which is the wrong direction for an arm with an 8.8% K rate.
PHI @
LAA✓4:07 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
PHI @
LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Zack Wheeler R
xERA4.93 (below)ERA9.00 (poor)K%23.5 (good)Whiff%28.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%12.2 (below)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%14.7 (poor)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%29.3 (poor)Whiff%26.6 (below)HH%31.9 (below)
L12
wRC+87 (below)K%28.2 (poor)Whiff%27.7 (below)HH%33.6 (below)
Yusei Kikuchi L
xERA5.06 (below)ERA7.50 (poor)K%18.5 (avg)Whiff%20.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%48.7 (poor)Barrel%17.9 (poor)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs71BB%7.4 (avg)
PHI vs LHP
L6
wRC+94 (below)K%8.5 (elite)Whiff%15.3 (elite)HH%27.9 (poor)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%8.6 (elite)Whiff%15.5 (elite)HH%32.7 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 2.83 (elite)ERA 2.52 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.87 (elite)ERA 3.54 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-186-1.5 (-111)O7.5 (-115)LAA+173+1.5 (-105)U7.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-184-0.5 (-120)O3.5 (-148)LAA+150+0.5 (-108)U3.5 (+114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (-106/-110)2.5 (+114/-145)LAA2.5 (-142/+114)1.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZack Wheeler7.5 (+120 / -134)17.5 (-174 / +130)Yusei Kikuchi5.5 (+120 / -137)16.5 (-110 / -106)
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@
L4.010349588
L4.010349588Aug 18vs
W5.09872422
W5.09872422Aug 12@
L5.08456145
L5.08456145Aug 7vs
L5.111667544
L5.111667544Aug 2@
W2.03231000
W2.03231000Yusei Kikuchi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@
L5.08947155
L5.08947155Apr 29@
L2.03512100
L2.03512100Apr 24@
L5.09055255
L5.09055255Apr 18vs
L6.08684100
L6.08684100Apr 13@
L3.18234444
L3.18234444SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Yusei Kikuchi
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.03.60good8.05.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19@
L5.09185322
L5.09185322home starts5.32.81elite7.33.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 18vs
L6.08684100
L6.08684100Apr 7vs
L5.09786144
L5.09786144Sep 24vs
W5.06661111
W5.06661111Trends · PHI
- PHI are 2-0 vs LAA this season (2 games).
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 2-3 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-3 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 4.2 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.6 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-2 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-2 vs PHI this season (2 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA have lost 6 straight.
- LAA are 0-5 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-2 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 2 home starts.
- LAA average 3.8 runs/game in Yusei Kikuchi's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 1.5 runs/game in Yusei Kikuchi's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
90°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph SSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: last start: 103 pitches over 4.0 IP
- LAA — Yusei Kikuchi: 2026-04-24: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
Yusei Kikuchi u5.5 Ks (-137)
Philadelphia has struck out in just 8.5% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games, and 8.6% over its last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is an established contact profile rather than a hot week. Kikuchi has averaged 3.3 strikeouts per start over his last 3 with a 18.5% K rate and only 4.0 innings per outing, and his outs line at 16.5 caps the plate appearances available. Six strikeouts would be nearly double what he has managed in any of those three starts against a lineup that barely swings and misses, and the price still treats this as close to a coin flip.
Zack Wheeler u17.5 Outs (+130)
Wheeler has gone 5.0, 5.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 15 and 12 outs, none of them reaching this number — while walking 14.7% of the hitters he has faced. His last time out he needed 103 pitches to get 12 outs, and a 43.9% hard-hit rate over that window says the traffic is real. Six full innings is two outs beyond anything he has produced recently, and the market is asking better than 60% for it.
CIN @
CHC7:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
CIN @
CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Chase Burns R
xERA2.78 (elite)ERA4.02 (avg)K%32.3 (elite)Whiff%30.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs87BB%4.6 (elite)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+182 (elite)K%12.8 (elite)Whiff%15.4 (elite)HH%34.0 (below)
L12
wRC+143 (elite)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Shota Imanaga L
xERA4.21 (avg)ERA5.68 (poor)K%32.2 (elite)Whiff%34.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%15.6 (poor)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs85BB%8.5 (avg)
CIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+101 (avg)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%29.8 (poor)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%30.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 4.46 (avg)ERA 5.73 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 4.58 (below)ERA 4.63 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+125+1.5 (-175)O9.5 (+100)CHC-134-1.5 (+150)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-138)CHC-128-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN4.5 (+105/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)CHC4.5 (-120/-104)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChase Burns6.5 (+128 / +114)14.5 (-185 / +162)Shota Imanaga6.5 (+122 / +120)16.5 (-110 / -120)
Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24@
L3.26459155
L3.26459155Aug 19vs
W5.010486222
W5.010486222Aug 14vs
W7.09384000
W7.09384000Aug 8@
L5.19666355
L5.19666355Aug 2vs
W6.08892211
W6.08892211Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23@
W2.07245212
W2.07245212Aug 17vs
W6.096102333
W6.096102333Aug 11@
W4.28656044
W4.28656044Aug 5vs
W5.08968011
W5.08968011Jul 31vs
L6.210164022
L6.210164022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shota Imanaga
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.32.81elite6.35.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 10@
L5.010257111
L5.010257111May 7vs
W6.099106311
W6.099106311Sep 19@
L5.08344234
L5.08344234home starts5.73.14good7.34.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs
W6.096102333
W6.096102333Aug 5vs
W5.08968011
W5.08968011Jul 31vs
L6.210164022
L6.210164022Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-7 vs CHC this season (9 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 3.6 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.4 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-2 to the over in Chase Burns's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 7-2 vs CIN this season (9 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 8.2 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 4.8 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-1 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph ESE
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- CHC bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- CIN — Chase Burns: last start: 64 pitches over 3.2 IP
- CIN — Chase Burns: 2026-08-24: 5 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: last start: 72 pitches over 2.0 IP
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: 2026-08-11: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Chicago's 182 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games is a heater off a 143 over its last 12, and Burns' 2.78 xERA over his last 3 makes the total and the -134 home price fair rather than wrong. Burns' 6.5 strikeout line pairs with an outs line of just 14.5, and the Cubs have struck out only 12.8% of the time over their last 6, so neither side of that number is worth a price. Imanaga went 2.0 innings on 72 pitches last time out and his 6.5 strikeout line already reflects a 32.2% K rate that Cincinnati's 19.1% strikeout rate over its last 6 will hold down — both his markets sit where they should.