MLB Game Overviews

Cease carries a 37.5 K% and 30.6 Whiff% over his last 3 starts with 10, 7, 10 strikeouts, and he has piled up 9.3 K per start across 3 meetings with the Yankees (9, 9, 10). NYY sits at a 31.3 K% vs RHP over their last 6 with a 79 wRC+, one of the most strikeout-prone lineups on the board. The 8.5 line underprices an elite whiff arm against a lineup that hands out strikeouts at this rate.

Henderson brings a 2.55 xERA and 29.6 K% over his last 3 starts and works 6.4 IP/gs, then hands off to a Milwaukee bullpen at a 2.61 xERA over its last 12. Atlanta's bats are stuck at a 62 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, confirmed by a 58 wRC+ over their last 12, and they average just 3.0 runs on the road. An established-cold lineup facing an elite starter and a shutdown pen should struggle to clear four.

Eury Perez carries a 2.54 xERA over his last 3 and goes 6.0 IP/gs against a Washington lineup at 50 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, down from 86 over its last 12 and cratering. Jake Irvin's 3.92 xERA over his last 3 is far better than his 6.75 ERA suggests, so Miami's average 106 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 projects to a modest total, and both bullpens sit in the 3s. The number is priced for a normal run environment when one lineup is collapsing against an elite arm.

Perez has a 29.6% K rate backed by a 32.2% whiff over his last 3, averaging 7.0 strikeouts per start (9, 7, 5), and works 6.0 IP/gs. Washington whiffs at a 26.1% clip vs RHP over its last 6, and he punched out 7 of them in their most recent meeting. Plus money on a whiff-supported strikeout arm facing a high-strikeout lineup with the innings to get there is value.

New York's lineup sits at 128 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6, matching its 130 over the last 12, and it just tagged Luis Castillo for 6 ER in 4 IP a week ago. Christian Scott's 3.85 xERA over his last 3 is masked by a 5.87 ERA inflated against high-strikeout lineups, while Chicago's offense has cooled to 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 from 107 over its last 12. Getting the superior offense and the underrated starter at even money underprices the Mets.

Scott has a 27.8% K rate with a matching 29.8% whiff over his last 3, striking out 7, 6, and 7 in those outings. The White Sox whiff at 29.2% vs RHP over their last 6 against just a 21.1% K rate, a gap that points to more strikeouts than their surface number shows, and his 15.5 outs line gives him the length. Plus money on that pairing is priced too cheaply.

Peterson has struck out 8, 3, and 6 over his last 3 starts (5.7 K/start) working 5.7 IP/gs. Seattle carries a 24.8 K% vs LHP over their last 6 with a 79 wRC+, a strikeout-prone lineup that lets him work deep. Plus money on a starter averaging well above this number against a whiffing offense is the edge.

Boston is scorching at a 167 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, backed by a 130 wRC+ over their last 12, so this is established form rather than a one-series spike. Tidwell has been squared up hard with a 45.6 HH% over his last 3 starts and a 5.40 ERA, and he threw only 63 pitches last time. An elite home offense against a hittable righty should push past this team total.

Skubal brings a 2.97 xERA and 26.4 K% over his last 3 starts against a Pittsburgh lineup that has cooled to an 88 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and scored just 1.0 run per game across his club's last five starts. The Dodgers' 109 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 gets Jones, whose 5.80 xERA over his last 3 flags a hittable arm. At -250 on the moneyline the runline captures the same lopsided matchup at a fair price.

Kremer's 2.59 xERA over his last 3 starts comes with a 28.4 Whiff% and 5.8 IP/gs. San Diego's 26.0 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6 sits well above their 17.6 K%, meaning their strikeout rate is due to rise against a starter who misses bats at this rate. Plus money on a whiff-heavy arm working near six innings against a swing-and-miss lineup is undervalued.