MLB Game Overviews

Sunday, September 6, 2026

Updated 11:47 UTC · Odds Updated 10:27 UTC

AI Picks · 10 Bets · Sep 6
CIN Team Total o3.5 (-111)
MIL @ CIN · 12:10 PM ET
Cincinnati has hit for a 145 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 127 over its last 12, and they get Kyle Harrison, who carries a 4.78 xERA, a 42.9% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate over his last 3 and was tagged for nine runs in 3.2 innings on August 31. He has averaged 4.6 innings per start over that window, so Milwaukee's bullpen — 9.3 relief innings across the past two days — is in this game early, in a park that plays at a 104 factor with the temperature at 79. Cincinnati has scored just 3.0 runs per game across their last five behind Singer, which is the mark against this, but that is a starter-side outcome rather than anything about how they have swung it against left-handed pitching. Four runs is priced as a coin flip for a lineup in this form against an arm this hittable.
Found at 7:47 AM ET
Payton Tolle u17.5 Outs (-105)
BOS @ BAL · 1:35 PM ET
Tolle has not reached 18 outs in any of his last 3 starts — 5.0, 5.1 and 5.2 innings on 98, 97 and 96 pitches — so he is burning a full workload to get 15-17 outs, and his 8.7 BB% over that window is what keeps the counts climbing. Baltimore's bats have been live against left-handers over their last 12 (116 wRC+, better than the 95 they show over their last 6), and Boston's bullpen is fresh at 4.0 relief innings over the past two days, which removes any need to push him through a sixth. The one meeting that argues the other way is his 6.0-inning outing at Baltimore in June of this season, but the two most recent starts against them averaged 5.6 innings and his current pitch efficiency is worse than it was then. The market is pricing this line at his season depth rather than the shorter outings he has actually been turning in.
Found at 6:32 AM ET
Paul Skenes u7.5 Strikeouts (+124)
LAA @ PIT · 1:35 PM ET
Skenes has struck out 5, 4 and 4 over his last 3 starts, a 19.7% K rate over that window, and his outs line sits at 16.5 — roughly five and a half innings, about 22 batters. Reaching eight strikeouts would require nearly double his recent per-start total. Los Angeles' lineup does whiff, with LAA at a 29.5% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP and 29.4% over their last 12, which is the case for the number being posted this high, but even at that elevated rate his projected total lands near six. The market is pricing a strikeout ceiling his last three outings have not come close to producing.
Found at 7:47 AM ET
Kyle Bradish u4.5 Strikeouts (+107)
BOS @ BAL · 1:35 PM ET
Bradish has struck out 5, 4 and 4 over his last 3 starts on an 18.3% K rate with a 19.3% whiff rate, both of which sit well below the league's average starter. Boston's 21.1% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP and 21.6% over their last 12 make them a middling strikeout target rather than a soft one, and his outs line at 16.5 caps him around five and a half innings of opportunity. He fanned four over six innings against this lineup at Fenway on July 22 in the most recent of their two meetings this season. The number is set as though his recent bat-missing supports five, and nothing in his last three outings does.
Found at 7:47 AM ET
E. Rodriguez u18.5 Outs (+120)
ARI @ HOU · 2:10 PM ET
Rodriguez has thrown 99, 104 and 103 pitches in his last 3 starts to get 17, 21 and 15 outs — only once past this number, and his 11.0% walk rate over that window is what keeps the pitch counts climbing faster than the innings. Nineteen outs asks him to work into the seventh, which at his recent efficiency means roughly 110 pitches. Houston's lineup carries a 127 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 12 even with the last-6 mark at 87, so the traffic that has been shortening his outings is available again, and Houston's bullpen at 9.7 innings over two days is not a reason Arizona's manager stretches his own starter. His 2.41 xERA over the last 3 is the case for length, but effectiveness has not translated into deep outings for him, and the price has this as close to a coin flip.
Found at 7:47 AM ET
Randy Dobnak o2.5 Strikeouts (+112)
TOR @ KCR · 2:11 PM ET
Dobnak has struck out 4, 5 and 6 in his last 3 starts, a 20.8% K rate with a 23.4% whiff rate over that window, and he has gone at least six innings in two of those three. His outs line at 15.5 has him working into the sixth again, which is roughly 21 batters — his rate over that many hitters projects near four strikeouts, not two. Toronto's contact-leaning 20.4% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP is the argument for a low number, and he still fanned five of them over six innings when these clubs met on August 26. A line that needs him to finish with two or fewer is priced for a pitcher who misses far fewer bats than the one who has taken the ball in his last three turns.
Found at 7:47 AM ET
S. Arrighetti u14.5 Outs (+103)
TOR @ KCR · 2:11 PM ET
Arrighetti has recorded 15, 3 and 12 outs in his last 3 starts and was pulled after 79 pitches and four innings his last time out, which came against Kansas City on August 27. He has also worked in relief twice since mid-August, most recently on September 1, so he is being used as a short-stretch arm rather than a six-inning starter. Kansas City's 13.3% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP means balls in play and long innings rather than quick ones, and their fresh look at him from ten days ago works against a longer outing. Toronto's bullpen having thrown 10.3 innings over the past two days is the reason to expect them to stretch him, but his recent workload pattern caps him well short of five innings and the price still treats that as the less likely outcome.
Found at 7:47 AM ET
ATH Team Total o2.5 (-146)
ATH @ SEA · 4:10 PM ET
The Athletics carry a 143 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 6 with a 133 mark over their last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is established form rather than a hot week — and they are barreling the ball at a 44.6% hard-hit rate over those last 6. Bryan Woo has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a 15.9% barrel rate over his last 3 starts and averages 5.3 innings, which hands roughly four innings to a Seattle bullpen carrying a 4.40 xERA and an 18.3 K% over its last 12 games. The counter is the venue: T-Mobile Park at APF 91 in 69-degree air suppresses run scoring, and Woo's 4.6% walk rate over his last 3 keeps free baserunners off the board. Three runs is a bar an average lineup clears 70% of the time, and the market is pricing this offense well below average in a spot where it is the best-hitting side on the field. Taking the 2.5 rung rather than the 1.5 at -310, where the price no longer pays for the read.
Found at 6:32 AM ET
ATH +1.5 (-132)
ATH @ SEA · 4:10 PM ET
Seattle's offense has produced a 64 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 43 over its last 12 — both windows agree they cannot handle left-handed pitching, and they have averaged 3.4 runs over their last 10 games. Oakland arrives with a 140 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 128 over their last 12, facing a starter in Woo who has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a 15.9% barrel rate over his last 3, with a Seattle bullpen behind him at a 4.40 xERA over its last 12 games. Gage Jump's 5.44 xERA over his last 3 is the real argument for Seattle and it is why the moneyline is where it is, but a two-run margin against a lineup this cold is a much taller order than the price implies, and Oakland's bullpen has been the better unit at a 3.15 xERA. The market is charging near-favorite juice on a Seattle offense that has not scored.
Found at 7:47 AM ET
MIN F5 Moneyline (+120)
MIN @ CHW · 6:20 PM ET
Chicago opens with Bryan Hudson, whose last five outings average 1.1 innings, and hands the bulk to Jose Urquidy, who has made one start since mid-August — 3.0 innings, 6 hits, 4 walks, 5 earned runs — and has worked out of the bullpen twice in the last week. Minnesota's lineup is at 129 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6 with 135 over its last 12 and a 15.6% strikeout rate, exactly the profile that punishes a patchwork staff, and the White Sox relief corps is already at 8.7 innings over the past two days. On the other side Bailey Ober takes a 3.64 xERA over his last 3 into a Chicago lineup sitting at 66 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6. Ober did face these hitters eight days ago, which gives them a fresh look at him, but their bats have not been close to good enough over that stretch to make that matter much. The market has made Chicago a solid favorite off Minnesota's road record while the first five innings are the exact stretch where the White Sox pitching plan is thinnest.
Found at 6:32 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
MIL @ CIN
12:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Harrison L
xERA4.78 (below)ERA6.59 (poor)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%24.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs89BB%7.8 (avg)
CIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+145 (elite)K%28.7 (poor)Whiff%28.9 (poor)HH%41.4 (above)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%25.5 (below)HH%36.2 (avg)
Brady Singer R
xERA4.42 (avg)ERA6.19 (poor)K%17.1 (avg)Whiff%21.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%57.1 (poor)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%4.0 (elite)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%26.6 (below)Whiff%23.0 (avg)HH%48.5 (elite)
L12
wRC+139 (elite)K%25.8 (below)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%45.9 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 3.35 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 5.51 (poor)2d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-163-1.5 (+100)O9.0 (-103)CIN+140+1.5 (-120)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-160-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-118)CIN+130+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (-125/+110)2.5 (+100/-130)CIN3.5 (-111/+100)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Harrison6.5 (-111 / -114)15.5 (+134 / -158)Brady Singer4.5 (+106 / -130)15.5 (-114 / -101)
Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@ CHCL3.298310299
Aug 25 '26@ NYML5.09056111
Aug 18 '26vs SEAW5.07982200
Aug 11 '26@ SDPL4.290310338
Aug 5 '26vs PITW5.069101100
Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs SDPL4.187510044
Aug 25 '26@ SFGL5.29156233
Aug 20 '26vs STLL6.010335144
Aug 15 '26vs MIAL6.09348233
Aug 9 '26@ WSNL6.010338133
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.03.58good5.33.72.0(3)
1 this season, 2 last season · last met 76 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 22 '26vs MILL7.010672200
Sep 28 '25@ MILL3.17155133
Jun 2 '25vs MILL5.09744333
home starts5.46.15poor4.07.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs SDPL4.187510044
Aug 20 '26vs STLL6.010335144
Aug 15 '26vs MIAL6.09348233
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • MIL bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g)
  • CIN bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g)
  • MIL — Kyle Harrison: 2026-08-31: 9 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 25); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
CIN Team Total o3.5 (-111)
Cincinnati has hit for a 145 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 127 over its last 12, and they get Kyle Harrison, who carries a 4.78 xERA, a 42.9% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate over his last 3 and was tagged for nine runs in 3.2 innings on August 31. He has averaged 4.6 innings per start over that window, so Milwaukee's bullpen — 9.3 relief innings across the past two days — is in this game early, in a park that plays at a 104 factor with the temperature at 79. Cincinnati has scored just 3.0 runs per game across their last five behind Singer, which is the mark against this, but that is a starter-side outcome rather than anything about how they have swung it against left-handed pitching. Four runs is priced as a coin flip for a lineup in this form against an arm this hittable.
ATL @ PHI
1:10 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Mahle R
xERA5.10 (below)ERA1.96 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%47.2 (poor)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs86BB%4.1 (elite)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+27 (poor)K%17.6 (above)Whiff%19.6 (above)HH%20.9 (poor)
L12
wRC+63 (poor)K%21.3 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%28.4 (poor)
Aaron Nola R
xERA2.77 (elite)ERA2.00 (elite)K%26.8 (good)Whiff%30.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs99BB%7.0 (good)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+125 (above)K%27.4 (below)Whiff%25.3 (below)HH%43.5 (above)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%25.3 (below)HH%38.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 2.11 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
PHI
xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 2.48 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-106-1.5 (+152)O8.0 (-115)PHI-110+1.5 (-184)U8.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-102)PHI-114-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (-142/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)PHI3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Mahle4.5 (+110 / -127)15.5 (-112 / -102)Aaron Nola5.5 (-117 / +104)17.5 (-102 / -120)
Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26vs COLW6.28995011
Aug 23 '26@ MILW5.09446211
Aug 18 '26@ MINL6.27636122
Aug 12 '26vs NYMW6.09374011
Aug 7 '26@ NYYL6.09293200
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@ ARIW5.010445211
Aug 25 '26@ SEAL6.09273322
Aug 19 '26vs MIAW7.010085011
Aug 13 '26@ MINW5.09795311
Aug 8 '26vs TORL5.09786222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.14.41avg4.54.53.5(2)
at PHI5.09.00poor3.06.03.0(1)
all 2 this season · last met 131 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 28 '26@ PHIL5.08236355
Apr 8 '26vs PHIW5.29463400
Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.18.82poor5.05.53.0(2)
1 this season, 1 last season · last met 133 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 26 '26@ ATLL4.210167366
Aug 28 '25vs ATLW6.09544344
home starts6.03.00good7.05.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19 '26vs MIAW7.010085011
Aug 8 '26vs TORL5.09786222
Aug 3 '26vs WSNW6.09756233
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
  • PHI — Aaron Nola: last start: 104 pitches over 5.0 IP
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
AI Analysis
Philadelphia's 27 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 argues hard for a quiet game, but Mahle's 5.10 xERA and 47.2% hard-hit rate over his last 3 say Atlanta's run prevention is far shakier than his 1.96 ERA, and those two heavy readings cancel at a total of 8.0 and a pick'em moneyline. Nola's strikeout line at 5.5 sits right on the 6.3 he has averaged over his last 3, and his outs number at 17.5 matches the six innings he has been throwing. Mahle's 4.5 strikeouts and 15.5 outs are both fair for an arm averaging 5.3 punchouts and just over six innings a start.
BOS @ BAL
1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Payton Tolle L
xERA2.59 (elite)ERA5.06 (below)K%27.5 (good)Whiff%27.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs97BB%8.7 (avg)
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+80 (below)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%13.3 (elite)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%25.6 (below)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%40.5 (above)
Kyle Bradish R
xERA5.29 (poor)ERA7.20 (poor)K%18.3 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.2 (below)Barrel%13.5 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs95BB%8.5 (avg)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+118 (above)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%21.8 (avg)HH%32.7 (below)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%33.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.72 (good)ERA 5.96 (poor)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.96 (elite)ERA 2.77 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-136-1.5 (+122)O7.5 (-115)BAL+118+1.5 (-145)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-135-0.5 (+100)O4.5 (+112)BAL+116+0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+112/-135)1.5 (-154/+120)BAL3.5 (-102/-125)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPayton Tolle6.5 (-130 / +120)17.5 (-119 / -105)Kyle Bradish4.5 (-128 / +107)16.5 (-128 / -101)
Payton Tolle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs SEAW5.29666244
Aug 25 '26@ MIAW5.19774222
Aug 19 '26vs ARIL5.09866233
Aug 13 '26@ TORW8.09142200
Aug 7 '26vs ATHW6.084142011
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ COLL5.09546222
Aug 26 '26@ STLW4.19149277
Aug 20 '26vs NYYL5.210058235
Aug 15 '26@ TBRW6.09337422
Aug 8 '26@ TEXL6.09845012
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Payton Tolle
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.63.21good7.07.51.5(2)
at BAL
all 2 this season · last met 48 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20 '26vs BALW5.28898144
Jun 3 '26vs BALW6.09957200
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.73.18good5.74.01.7(3)
2 this season, 1 last season · last met 46 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22 '26@ BOSW6.08944111
Apr 26 '26vs BOSL5.08834433
Aug 26 '25vs BOSL6.081104022
home starts4.83.75avg4.34.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20 '26vs NYYL5.210058235
Aug 2 '26vs PHIL3.05332222
Jul 11 '26vs KCRW6.29652211
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 7 mph NNE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • BAL offense: K% 22.4 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 13.3 supports
  • BOS bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
  • BAL — Kyle Bradish: 2026-08-26: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.40 ERA equivalent
  • TREND: BAL — was shut out 5-0 last time out (2026-09-05)
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Payton Tolle u17.5 Outs (-105)
Tolle has not reached 18 outs in any of his last 3 starts — 5.0, 5.1 and 5.2 innings on 98, 97 and 96 pitches — so he is burning a full workload to get 15-17 outs, and his 8.7 BB% over that window is what keeps the counts climbing. Baltimore's bats have been live against left-handers over their last 12 (116 wRC+, better than the 95 they show over their last 6), and Boston's bullpen is fresh at 4.0 relief innings over the past two days, which removes any need to push him through a sixth. The one meeting that argues the other way is his 6.0-inning outing at Baltimore in June of this season, but the two most recent starts against them averaged 5.6 innings and his current pitch efficiency is worse than it was then. The market is pricing this line at his season depth rather than the shorter outings he has actually been turning in.
Kyle Bradish u4.5 Strikeouts (+107)
Bradish has struck out 5, 4 and 4 over his last 3 starts on an 18.3% K rate with a 19.3% whiff rate, both of which sit well below the league's average starter. Boston's 21.1% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP and 21.6% over their last 12 make them a middling strikeout target rather than a soft one, and his outs line at 16.5 caps him around five and a half innings of opportunity. He fanned four over six innings against this lineup at Fenway on July 22 in the most recent of their two meetings this season. The number is set as though his recent bat-missing supports five, and nothing in his last three outings does.
LAA @ PIT
1:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Walbert Urena R
xERA3.86 (avg)ERA4.02 (avg)K%27.3 (good)Whiff%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%10.6 (below)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+109 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+87 (below)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%33.1 (below)
Paul Skenes R
xERA3.86 (avg)ERA4.80 (below)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%10.6 (below)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+84 (below)K%29.5 (poor)Whiff%26.6 (below)HH%40.3 (above)
L12
wRC+87 (below)K%29.4 (poor)Whiff%26.6 (below)HH%37.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 5.72 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 3.31 (good)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+165+1.5 (-135)O7.5 (-105)PIT-196-1.5 (+114)U7.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+154+0.5 (+100)O3.5 (-146)PIT-188-0.5 (-130)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA2.5 (-150/+120)1.5 (+110/-140)PIT4.5 (+118/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalbert Urena4.5 (-138 / +120)15.5 (-105 / -122)Paul Skenes7.5 (+120 / +124)16.5 (-133 / +104)
Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs NYYW7.09585011
Aug 25 '26vs CLEL3.28935533
Aug 19 '26@ HOUL5.09473233
Aug 13 '26vs TEXW6.010052200
Aug 8 '26@ MIAL2.15024344
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs SFGW4.29548355
Aug 25 '26@ SDPW6.08743000
Aug 19 '26vs DETW4.18154433
Aug 11 '26@ MIAL5.06545112
Aug 5 '26@ MILL5.09362433
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA
home starts4.58.73poor6.76.03.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs SFGW4.29548355
Aug 19 '26vs DETW4.18154433
Jul 25 '26vs CHCL5.1105116255
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • LAA — Walbert Urena: 2026-08-25: 3 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 8); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.34 ERA equivalent
  • PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-09-01: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.29 ERA equivalent
  • PIT — Paul Skenes: recent opponents high-K: DET 29%, SDP 28%
Paul Skenes u7.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Skenes has struck out 5, 4 and 4 over his last 3 starts, a 19.7% K rate over that window, and his outs line sits at 16.5 — roughly five and a half innings, about 22 batters. Reaching eight strikeouts would require nearly double his recent per-start total. Los Angeles' lineup does whiff, with LAA at a 29.5% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP and 29.4% over their last 12, which is the case for the number being posted this high, but even at that elevated rate his projected total lands near six. The market is pricing a strikeout ceiling his last three outings have not come close to producing.
CHC @ MIA
1:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Clay Holmes R
xERA3.22 (good)ERA0.49 (elite)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%26.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%8.5 (avg)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+114 (avg)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%34.3 (below)
Tyler Phillips R
xERA2.79 (elite)ERA1.54 (elite)K%29.8 (elite)Whiff%31.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%23.1 (elite)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs65BB%14.9 (poor)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+149 (elite)K%19.6 (above)Whiff%17.8 (elite)HH%37.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+150 (elite)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%17.5 (elite)HH%35.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.99 (below)ERA 6.23 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
MIA
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 5.55 (poor)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-145-1.5 (+120)O8.0 (-114)MIA+124+1.5 (-136)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-152-0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-102)MIA+124+0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC4.5 (+102/-120)2.5 (+105/-135)MIA3.5 (-104/-120)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UClay Holmes4.5 (-130 / +113)17.5 (-102 / -122)Tyler Phillips3.5 (-138 / +115)14.5 (-102 / -110)
Clay Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs MILW6.010185200
Aug 25 '26@ ARIL7.09352200
Aug 19 '26vs CHWL5.18616211
Aug 14 '26vs STLW6.28031100
Aug 8 '26@ KCRL4.07016244
Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ KCRW5.06941200
Aug 25 '26vs BOSL4.28473311
Aug 18 '26@ PHIL2.0*4232211
Aug 13 '26vs PITL5.19266144
Aug 7 '26vs LAAL4.06145111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Clay Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.43.35good4.73.72.3(3)
at MIA5.10.88elite4.03.52.5(2)
none this season — 3 from last season · last met 344 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '25@ MIAW6.07821300
Aug 28 '25vs MIAL5.08825124
Apr 8 '25vs MIAW5.187105344
Apr 2 '25@ MIAW4.28566212
Tyler Phillips
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC
home starts4.44.06avg5.74.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26vs BOSL4.28473311
Aug 13 '26vs PITL5.19266144
Aug 7 '26vs LAAL4.06145111
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
  • MIA bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
  • CHC — Clay Holmes: last start: 101 pitches over 6.0 IP
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: last start: 69 pitches over 5.0 IP
  • MIA — Tyler Phillips: 2026-08-13: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.07 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Both lineups are live — Chicago at a 149 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and Miami at 130 — but Holmes has a 3.22 xERA and Phillips a 2.79 over their last 3, so the case for runs and the case against them are equally heavy at a total of 8.0. Holmes' strikeout line of 4.5 matches the 4.7 he has averaged over his last 3 and Chicago's 19.6% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP makes Phillips' 3.5 a poor over despite his 29.8% K rate. Phillips' outs line at 14.5 already reflects the 69-pitch, five-inning outing he last threw.
DET @ CLE
1:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jackson Jobe R
xERA4.20 (avg)ERA3.68 (good)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%16.5 (below)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs88BB%12.3 (below)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%27.7 (poor)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%19.3 (above)Whiff%17.4 (elite)HH%32.4 (below)
Gavin Williams R
xERA2.89 (elite)ERA4.50 (below)K%45.0 (elite)Whiff%43.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs85BB%8.3 (avg)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+85 (below)K%28.7 (poor)Whiff%30.7 (poor)HH%47.7 (elite)
L12
wRC+40 (poor)K%27.3 (below)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%42.6 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 5.27 (poor)2d stress Normal (10.0 IP/3g)
CLE
xERA 2.81 (elite)ERA 2.94 (elite)2d stress Elevated (13.7 IP/3g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET+142+1.5 (-158)O7.5 (-106)CLE-168-1.5 (+135)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+150+0.5 (-102)O3.5 (-144)CLE-175-0.5 (-125)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UDET3.5 (+114/-140)CLE3.5 (-145/+118)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJackson Jobe3.5 (+111 / -130)15.5 (+102 / -130)Gavin Williams7.5 (-113 / -107)17.5 (-136 / +103)
Jackson Jobe · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@ MINL5.09246245
Aug 25 '26vs TBRW4.18644311
Aug 19 '26@ PITL5.18634311
Aug 14 '26vs CHWL3.27449166
Aug 8 '26@ SFGW5.07141100
Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs TORW7.097132101
Aug 25 '26@ LAAW1.16236155
Aug 20 '26vs SFGW5.296114322
Aug 14 '26vs SDPL4.19157455
Aug 8 '26@ CHWL5.210273222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jackson Jobe
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.03.60good3.04.02.0(1)
at CLE
last season · last met 471 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 23 '25vs CLEL5.08934222
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.71.06elite9.72.72.3(3)
none this season — 3 from last season · last met 348 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '25vs DETW6.091124222
Sep 17 '25@ DETW5.010093200
Jul 6 '25vs DETL6.09781300
home starts5.43.87avg9.74.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs TORW7.097132101
Aug 20 '26vs SFGW5.296114322
Aug 14 '26vs SDPL4.19157455
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph NNE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 7
  • CLE bullpen elevated (13.7 IP over 3g)
  • DET — Jackson Jobe: 2026-08-31: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.98 ERA equivalent
  • DET — Jackson Jobe: recent opponents low-K: TBR 18%, MIN 15%
  • CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-08-25: 5 ER in 1.1 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.73 ERA equivalent
  • CLE — Gavin Williams: low-K outing 2026-08-25 (3 Ks vs avg 9.0 over his last 3)
  • TREND: CLE — was shut out 6-0 last time out (2026-09-05)
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
AI Analysis
Cleveland is the better side and the market has it at -168 with the total at 7.5, which fits two lineups at 87 and 85 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6. Gavin Williams' strikeout line at 7.5 demands eight against a Detroit lineup that does whiff at 28.7% over their last 6, but he has posted 11, 3 and 13 in his last three and averaged just 4.7 innings a start, so the number is close to a coin flip at a fair price; his outs line at 17.5 is likewise above the depth he has gone. Jobe's 3.5 strikeouts matches his 3.7 average over his last 3 and his 15.5 outs mirrors the five innings he has thrown in each of his last three turns.
SFG @ NYM
1:40 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Cesar Perdomo L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYM vs LHP
L6
wRC+122 (above)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%25.2 (below)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)
Christian Scott R
xERA4.78 (below)ERA5.51 (poor)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%27.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.8 (good)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs93BB%15.3 (poor)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+135 (elite)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%17.3 (elite)HH%33.9 (below)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%38.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 5.06 (below)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
NYM
xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 4.78 (below)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+136+1.5 (-154)O8.5 (-104)NYM-155-1.5 (+135)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+150+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-102)NYM-190-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/USFG3.5 (-113/-110)NYM4.5 (+100/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCesar PerdomoChristian Scott5.5 (+115 / -138)15.5 (+102 / -135)
Cesar Perdomo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ PITL4.0*5843111
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs HOUL5.19621533
Aug 22 '26@ CHWW4.29465444
Aug 16 '26vs WSNW6.19075233
Aug 10 '26@ ATLW4.08267144
Aug 5 '26@ CLEW5.09676233
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG
home starts5.73.66good5.33.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs HOUL5.19621533
Aug 16 '26vs WSNW6.19075233
Jul 29 '26vs ATLL6.09875111
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph NNE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • SFG — Cesar Perdomo: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • SFG bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
  • SFG — Cesar Perdomo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01
  • NYM — Christian Scott: low-K outing 2026-08-28 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
AI Analysis
San Francisco starts a pitcher making his first outing of the season with no numbers to work from, which removes any read on half the game and leaves the total at 8.5 and the Mets at -155 untouchable. Scott's strikeout line at 5.5 sits just above the 5.0 he has averaged over his last 3, and his 15.3% walk rate over that window makes his 15.5 outs line a fair reflection of the 5.4 innings he has gone. No props are posted for the San Francisco starter.
ARI @ HOU
2:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
E. Rodriguez L
xERA2.41 (elite)ERA1.53 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%18.4 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs102BB%11.0 (below)
HOU vs LHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%33.9 (below)
Peter Lambert R
xERA5.14 (below)ERA8.36 (poor)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.8 (elite)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%13.9 (poor)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+57 (poor)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%25.0 (below)HH%27.3 (poor)
L12
wRC+69 (poor)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%20.9 (above)HH%30.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 3.21 (good)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 3.65 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-106-1.5 (+155)O8.5 (+104)HOU-110+1.5 (-182)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-110-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-102)HOU-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI3.5 (-135/+114)1.5 (-145/+114)HOU3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UE. Rodriguez4.5 (+115 / -128)18.5 (+126 / +120)Peter Lambert4.5 (-125 / +100)15.5 (-114 / -113)
E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs PHIL5.010338333
Aug 26 '26vs CHCW7.010492300
Aug 21 '26vs CINW5.29944200
Aug 15 '26@ ATLW6.09655022
Aug 9 '26vs LADW7.011595222
Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs CHWW4.210463522
Aug 26 '26@ NYYL5.210257323
Aug 20 '26vs LAAL3.27938299
Aug 14 '26vs SEAW5.09664222
Aug 8 '26@ SDPL5.09735323
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.10.00elite3.06.03.0(1)
at HOU
last season · last met 411 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22 '25vs HOUL6.19036300
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI
home starts4.19.44poor5.05.03.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs CHWW4.210463522
Aug 20 '26vs LAAL3.27938299
Aug 14 '26vs SEAW5.09664222
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
  • HOU bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g)
  • ARI — E. Rodriguez: last start: 103 pitches over 5.0 IP
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: last start: 104 pitches over 4.2 IP
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: 2026-08-20: 9 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 25); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.87 ERA equivalent
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: recent opponents high-K: LAA 30%, NYY 28%
E. Rodriguez u18.5 Outs (+120)
Rodriguez has thrown 99, 104 and 103 pitches in his last 3 starts to get 17, 21 and 15 outs — only once past this number, and his 11.0% walk rate over that window is what keeps the pitch counts climbing faster than the innings. Nineteen outs asks him to work into the seventh, which at his recent efficiency means roughly 110 pitches. Houston's lineup carries a 127 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 12 even with the last-6 mark at 87, so the traffic that has been shortening his outings is available again, and Houston's bullpen at 9.7 innings over two days is not a reason Arizona's manager stretches his own starter. His 2.41 xERA over the last 3 is the case for length, but effectiveness has not translated into deep outings for him, and the price has this as close to a coin flip.
TOR @ KCR
2:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
S. Arrighetti R
xERA4.73 (below)ERA6.55 (poor)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%22.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.4 (good)Barrel%8.8 (avg)IP/gs5.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs67BB%10.2 (below)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%13.3 (elite)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%43.4 (above)
L12
wRC+131 (elite)K%16.5 (above)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%42.4 (above)
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.74 (below)ERA5.06 (below)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs92BB%9.7 (avg)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+119 (above)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%40.2 (above)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%18.3 (above)HH%39.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 3.55 (good)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 3.59 (good)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-120-1.5 (+130)O9.5 (-115)KCR+105+1.5 (-155)U9.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-104+0.5 (-146)O5.5 (-102)KCR-120-0.5 (+112)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UTOR4.5 (-140/+110)KCR4.5 (-106/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/US. Arrighetti3.5 (-122 / +115)14.5 (-137 / +103)Randy Dobnak2.5 (+112 / -143)15.5 (-102 / -130)
S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ CLEL3.2*6222122
Aug 27 '26vs KCRL4.07945234
Aug 21 '26@ NYYL3.1*6143233
Jul 24 '26@ CHWW1.03302233
Jul 18 '26vs BALL5.08561411
Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs MIAL6.08767266
Aug 26 '26@ TORL6.09256133
Aug 20 '26vs ATHW4.09646400
Aug 15 '26@ LAAL5.29364200
Aug 9 '26vs CHCL5.094410144
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.06.30poor5.56.51.5(2)
at KCR6.06.00poor7.08.01.0(1)
all 2 this season · last met 10 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs KCRL4.07945234
Jun 14 '26@ KCRL6.010178144
Randy Dobnak
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR6.04.50below5.06.01.0(1)
this season · last met 11 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@ TORL6.09256133
home starts5.06.00poor4.77.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs MIAL6.08767266
Aug 20 '26vs ATHW4.09646400
Aug 9 '26vs CHCL5.094410144
Weather · Hot
98°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph ENE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • TOR bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
  • KCR bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
  • TOR — S. Arrighetti: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01, 2026-08-21
  • TOR — S. Arrighetti: last start: 79 pitches over 4.0 IP
  • TOR — S. Arrighetti: 2026-07-24: 3 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.28 ERA equivalent
  • KCR — Randy Dobnak: 2026-09-01: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.25 ERA equivalent
Randy Dobnak o2.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Dobnak has struck out 4, 5 and 6 in his last 3 starts, a 20.8% K rate with a 23.4% whiff rate over that window, and he has gone at least six innings in two of those three. His outs line at 15.5 has him working into the sixth again, which is roughly 21 batters — his rate over that many hitters projects near four strikeouts, not two. Toronto's contact-leaning 20.4% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP is the argument for a low number, and he still fanned five of them over six innings when these clubs met on August 26. A line that needs him to finish with two or fewer is priced for a pitcher who misses far fewer bats than the one who has taken the ball in his last three turns.
S. Arrighetti u14.5 Outs (+103)
Arrighetti has recorded 15, 3 and 12 outs in his last 3 starts and was pulled after 79 pitches and four innings his last time out, which came against Kansas City on August 27. He has also worked in relief twice since mid-August, most recently on September 1, so he is being used as a short-stretch arm rather than a six-inning starter. Kansas City's 13.3% K rate over their last 6 vs RHP means balls in play and long innings rather than quick ones, and their fresh look at him from ten days ago works against a longer outing. Toronto's bullpen having thrown 10.3 innings over the past two days is the reason to expect them to stretch him, but his recent workload pattern caps him well short of five innings and the price still treats that as the less likely outcome.
TBR @ TEX
2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ian Seymour L
xERA2.29 (elite)ERA4.76 (below)K%32.4 (elite)Whiff%28.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%23.4 (elite)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs8.5 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs89BB%1.4 (elite)
TEX vs LHP
L6
wRC+183 (elite)K%17.0 (above)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%48.7 (elite)
L12
wRC+159 (elite)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%23.4 (avg)HH%44.4 (above)
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.49 (good)ERA3.00 (good)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%29.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%13.4 (poor)
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+146 (elite)K%14.9 (elite)Whiff%15.4 (elite)HH%27.8 (poor)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%16.0 (above)Whiff%16.9 (elite)HH%31.0 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.71 (good)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 4.54 (below)ERA 6.32 (poor)2d stress Stressed (12.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-104-1.5 (+162)O7.5 (-110)TEX-110+1.5 (-184)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-102+0.5 (-152)O3.5 (-144)TEX-122-0.5 (+116)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UTBR3.5 (-122/-104)TEX3.5 (-115/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UIan Seymour5.5 (-111 / +108)16.5 (-139 / +104)MacKenzie Gore5.5 (+124 / -159)17.5 (+115 / -126)
Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs NYML6.188106033
Aug 25 '26@ DETL5.2*8857034
Aug 20 '26vs TORL5.09086133
Aug 15 '26vs BALL6.09396133
Aug 9 '26@ SEAW6.09875211
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs ATHW5.19545411
Aug 26 '26@ CHWL3.28348444
Aug 21 '26vs LAAW6.010072100
Aug 15 '26@ ATHW5.29958233
Aug 10 '26@ LAAW5.110394211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR7.03.86avg9.03.00.0(1)
this season · last met 39 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29 '26@ TBRL7.09593033
home starts5.70.53elite5.03.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs ATHW5.19545411
Aug 21 '26vs LAAW6.010072100
Aug 4 '26vs SFGW6.09943300
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 4
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: Whiff% 29.5 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 22.4 shows
  • TEX bullpen stressed (12.0 IP over 2g)
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-25
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: 2026-08-26: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.88 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Both lineups are scorching against left-handed pitching — Texas at a 183 wRC+ over their last 6 and Tampa Bay at 146 — but Seymour's 2.29 xERA and Gore's 3.49 over their last 3 hold the total at 7.5 and the moneyline at a pick'em, and Texas' bullpen at 12.0 innings over two days cuts the other way from Tampa Bay's rested group. Seymour's strikeout line of 5.5 is well below the 9.0 he has averaged over his last 3, but Texas strikes out just 17.0% over their last 6 vs LHP and his outs line at 16.5 caps the opportunity, leaving no price edge. Gore's 5.5 strikeouts is already juiced to the under and his 17.5 outs line sits above the 5.0 innings he has averaged, so both sides are fairly marked.
STL @ COL
3:10 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Leahy R
xERA2.45 (elite)ERA0.75 (elite)K%27.7 (good)Whiff%28.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%48.4 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs68BB%6.4 (good)
COL vs RHP
L6
wRC+102 (avg)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.3 (above)HH%31.0 (below)
L12
wRC+107 (avg)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Tanner Gordon R
xERA2.74 (elite)ERA3.63 (good)K%14.1 (below)Whiff%18.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.0 (good)Barrel%5.2 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs77BB%4.2 (elite)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+131 (elite)K%23.1 (avg)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%46.4 (elite)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%43.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.83 (below)ERA 6.23 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
COL
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 3.80 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-130-1.5 (+115)O11.0 (-112)COL+112+1.5 (-132)U11.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-135-0.5 (-102)O5.5 (-138)COL+110+0.5 (-128)U5.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL5.5 (-125/+105)2.5 (-145/+114)COL4.5 (-140/+112)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Leahy3.5 (+134 / +112)Tanner Gordon3.5 (-154 / +122)15.5 (+114 / -152)
Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs PITL3.05134111
Aug 23 '26@ PHIL4.06342200
Aug 18 '26@ CINW5.09063000
Aug 12 '26vs PHIW5.08166011
Aug 7 '26vs COLW5.08288022
Tanner Gordon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs BALL5.06033111
Aug 26 '26@ WSNW7.09056011
Aug 21 '26vs CLEL5.18229255
Aug 15 '26@ SFGL4.0*6343000
Aug 9 '26@ STLL3.1*4824022
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.03.60good8.08.00.0(1)
at COL
this season · last met 30 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7 '26vs COLW5.08288022
Tanner Gordon
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.00.00elite3.04.03.0(1)
last season · last met 410 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23 '25vs STLW6.09634300
home starts5.05.35poor2.56.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs BALL5.06033111
Aug 21 '26vs CLEL5.18229255
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ENE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • COL bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
  • STL — Kyle Leahy: last start: 51 pitches over 3.0 IP
  • COL — Tanner Gordon: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15, 2026-08-09
  • COL — Tanner Gordon: last start: 60 pitches over 5.0 IP
  • COL — Tanner Gordon: 2026-08-21: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.54 ERA equivalent
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115)
AI Analysis
The total at 11.0 already accounts for Coors, two short starters and St. Louis' 6.23 bullpen ERA over its last 12 games — my run estimate lands right on the number, and the moneyline at -130 fits a St. Louis lineup at 131 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6. Leahy has averaged 4.0 innings and threw just 51 pitches over three innings his last time out, so his 3.5 strikeout line is priced correctly and no outs number is posted for him. Gordon's outs line at 15.5 already leans short, and while his 14.1% K rate over his last 3 tempts the under at 3.5, St. Louis strikes out at 23.1% over their last 6 vs RHP, which lands the projection right on the number.
ATH @ SEA
4:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gage Jump L
xERA5.44 (poor)ERA8.59 (poor)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.4 (below)Barrel%17.0 (poor)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs90BB%11.6 (below)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+64 (poor)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%26.3 (poor)
L12
wRC+43 (poor)K%26.8 (below)Whiff%27.3 (below)HH%28.9 (poor)
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.82 (avg)ERA5.06 (below)K%26.2 (good)Whiff%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%45.5 (poor)Barrel%15.9 (poor)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs83BB%4.6 (elite)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+140 (elite)K%25.6 (below)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%41.9 (above)
L12
wRC+128 (above)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%38.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 3.60 (good)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
SEA
xERA 4.40 (avg)ERA 4.89 (below)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+172+1.5 (-132)O7.5 (-106)SEA-196-1.5 (+112)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+182+0.5 (+114)O4.5 (+116)SEA-210-0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH2.5 (-146/+120)1.5 (+110/-140)SEA4.5 (+110/-138)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGage Jump5.5 (-109 / +102)16.5 (-106 / -115)Bryan Woo6.5 (-120 / +106)17.5 (-200 / +149)
Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@ TEXL4.19126377
Aug 25 '26vs MINW6.19493222
Aug 20 '26@ KCRL4.08638355
Aug 14 '26vs TEXW5.110113433
Aug 8 '26@ BOSW6.0100116222
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ BOSW6.09975112
Aug 26 '26vs PHIL4.07655166
Aug 16 '26@ HOUW6.07553122
Aug 11 '26@ NYYL5.09253100
Aug 5 '26vs DETW7.09153100
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.07.20poor5.09.01.0(1)
at SEA
this season · last met 103 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 26 '26vs SEAL5.08859144
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH6.45.18below6.35.71.3(3)
none this season — 3 from last season · last met 380 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '25vs ATHW7.08871211
Jul 30 '25@ ATHL6.18468155
May 7 '25@ ATHW6.010068155
home starts5.74.24avg5.74.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs PHIL4.07655166
Aug 5 '26vs DETW7.09153100
Jul 18 '26vs SFGW6.09876223
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
69°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NNW
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 6
  • ATH bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
  • ATH — Gage Jump: high-K outing 2026-08-25 (9 Ks vs avg 4.7 over his last 3)
  • ATH — Gage Jump: recent opponents low-K: MIN 18%, TEX 17%
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-08-26: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.25 ERA equivalent
  • WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91)
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
ATH Team Total o2.5 (-146)
The Athletics carry a 143 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 6 with a 133 mark over their last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is established form rather than a hot week — and they are barreling the ball at a 44.6% hard-hit rate over those last 6. Bryan Woo has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a 15.9% barrel rate over his last 3 starts and averages 5.3 innings, which hands roughly four innings to a Seattle bullpen carrying a 4.40 xERA and an 18.3 K% over its last 12 games. The counter is the venue: T-Mobile Park at APF 91 in 69-degree air suppresses run scoring, and Woo's 4.6% walk rate over his last 3 keeps free baserunners off the board. Three runs is a bar an average lineup clears 70% of the time, and the market is pricing this offense well below average in a spot where it is the best-hitting side on the field. Taking the 2.5 rung rather than the 1.5 at -310, where the price no longer pays for the read.
ATH +1.5 (-132)
Seattle's offense has produced a 64 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 43 over its last 12 — both windows agree they cannot handle left-handed pitching, and they have averaged 3.4 runs over their last 10 games. Oakland arrives with a 140 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 128 over their last 12, facing a starter in Woo who has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a 15.9% barrel rate over his last 3, with a Seattle bullpen behind him at a 4.40 xERA over its last 12 games. Gage Jump's 5.44 xERA over his last 3 is the real argument for Seattle and it is why the moneyline is where it is, but a two-run margin against a lineup this cold is a much taller order than the price implies, and Oakland's bullpen has been the better unit at a 3.15 xERA. The market is charging near-favorite juice on a Seattle offense that has not scored.
NYY @ SDP
4:10 PM · Petco ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.12 (good)ERA3.63 (good)K%24.7 (good)Whiff%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%49.0 (poor)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs87BB%4.1 (elite)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+69 (poor)K%27.6 (below)Whiff%26.5 (below)HH%43.6 (above)
L12
wRC+81 (below)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%42.7 (above)
Michael King R
xERA3.72 (good)ERA0.92 (elite)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%24.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.0 (good)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs98BB%9.1 (avg)
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%28.2 (poor)Whiff%26.6 (below)HH%49.4 (elite)
L12
wRC+99 (avg)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%45.1 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 4.41 (avg)ERA 4.01 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
SDP
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 2.25 (elite)2d stress Stressed (11.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-110-1.5 (+155)O7.0 (-108)SDP-106+1.5 (-178)U7.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-125-0.5 (+114)O3.5 (-128)SDP+102+0.5 (-148)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-130/+100)SDP3.5 (+112/-135)1.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole5.5 (+108 / -128)18.5 (+154 / +142)Michael King5.5 (-106 / -112)17.5 (-127 / +130)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ LAAW5.19058133
Aug 27 '26vs HOUL6.07956133
Aug 20 '26@ BALW6.09384111
Aug 14 '26@ TORL6.08755212
Aug 8 '26vs ATLW7.08296022
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@ CINW6.09664300
Aug 25 '26vs PITL7.09875200
Aug 19 '26@ NYML6.210044222
Aug 14 '26@ CLEW6.08348134
Aug 8 '26vs HOUW6.09363111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.03.00good2.03.02.0(1)
last season · last met 488 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 6 '25@ NYYL6.09023222
home starts6.32.37elite6.34.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26vs PITL7.09875200
Aug 8 '26vs HOUW6.09363111
Jul 28 '26vs COLW6.09866144
Weather · Hot
92°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph NNW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 1
  • SDP bullpen stressed (11.7 IP over 2g)
AI Analysis
This is a pick'em with a total of 7.0 that correctly reflects Cole at a 3.12 xERA and King at 3.72 over their last 3, with San Diego's bullpen at a 2.37 xERA over its last 12 games offsetting the Padres' 69 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6. Cole's strikeout line of 5.5 matches his 6.0 average over his last 3, and his outs number at 18.5 is longer than the 5.2 innings he threw last time. King's 5.5 strikeouts fits the 5.7 he has averaged, and his outs line at 17.5 is already juiced toward the six-plus innings he has been giving them.
MIN @ CHW
6:20 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bailey Ober R
xERA3.64 (good)ERA2.51 (elite)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.2 (below)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs87BB%9.7 (avg)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+80 (below)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+91 (below)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Jose Urquidy RBULK
Opener: Bryan Hudson (LHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA3.22 (good)ERA6.00 (poor)K%7.0 (poor)Whiff%16.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%29.4 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs10.0PC/gs59BB%9.3 (avg)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%14.6 (elite)Whiff%19.5 (above)HH%40.9 (above)
L12
wRC+128 (above)K%15.2 (elite)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%39.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 4.95 (below)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
CHW
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 2.94 (elite)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+128+1.5 (-170)O8.5 (+100)CHW-150-1.5 (+142)U8.5 (-111)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+120+0.5 (-125)O4.5 (-118)CHW-150-0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UMIN3.5 (-113/-105)CHW4.5 (+112/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBailey Ober3.5 (-125 / +105)15.5 (+140 / -163)Jose Urquidy
Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs CHWL5.08052212
Aug 23 '26@ SDPL5.08734311
Aug 17 '26vs ATLW4.19446122
Aug 11 '26vs BALL6.010048155
Aug 6 '26@ KCRW6.07406033
Jose Urquidy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 3 '26@ HOUL1.0*1701000
Aug 30 '26@ MINL5.0*6713011
Aug 24 '26vs TEXL3.09326455
Aug 19 '26@ CHCW6.0*6882000
Aug 14 '26@ DETW3.2*5235033
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bailey Ober
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.33.38good4.75.31.7(3)
at CHW
1 this season, 2 last season · last met 8 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs CHWL5.08052212
Sep 1 '25vs CHWL5.06936244
Apr 22 '25vs CHWW6.08768111
Jose Urquidy
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN
home starts3.015.00poor2.06.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 24 '26vs TEXL3.09326455
Weather · Neutral Conditions
74°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph NE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 6
  • OPENER: CHW start Bryan Hudson (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.1 IP (longest 1.3)), with Jose Urquidy (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — MIN's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
  • CHW bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
  • MIN — Bailey Ober: recent opponents high-K: ATL 27%, SDP 28%
  • CHW — Jose Urquidy: 13 days since last start (2026-08-24) news ↗
  • CHW — Jose Urquidy: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-03, 2026-08-30
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
MIN F5 Moneyline (+120)
Chicago opens with Bryan Hudson, whose last five outings average 1.1 innings, and hands the bulk to Jose Urquidy, who has made one start since mid-August — 3.0 innings, 6 hits, 4 walks, 5 earned runs — and has worked out of the bullpen twice in the last week. Minnesota's lineup is at 129 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6 with 135 over its last 12 and a 15.6% strikeout rate, exactly the profile that punishes a patchwork staff, and the White Sox relief corps is already at 8.7 innings over the past two days. On the other side Bailey Ober takes a 3.64 xERA over his last 3 into a Chicago lineup sitting at 66 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6. Ober did face these hitters eight days ago, which gives them a fresh look at him, but their bats have not been close to good enough over that stretch to make that matter much. The market has made Chicago a solid favorite off Minnesota's road record while the first five innings are the exact stretch where the White Sox pitching plan is thinnest.
WSN @ LAD
10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA3.40 (good)ERA2.30 (elite)K%26.2 (good)Whiff%23.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs84BB%12.3 (below)
LAD vs LHP
L6
wRC+131 (elite)K%17.2 (above)Whiff%29.2 (poor)HH%41.7 (above)
L12
wRC+107 (avg)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%33.3 (below)
Justin Wrobleski L
xERA5.11 (below)ERA7.15 (poor)K%24.1 (good)Whiff%27.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%45.7 (poor)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs73BB%9.3 (avg)
WSN vs LHP
L6
wRC+112 (avg)K%31.8 (poor)Whiff%36.9 (poor)HH%32.4 (below)
L12
wRC+114 (avg)K%28.0 (poor)Whiff%30.1 (poor)HH%31.7 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.63 (below)ERA 7.84 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.63 (good)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+187+1.5 (-123)O8.5 (-103)LAD-220-1.5 (+106)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+164+0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-114)LAD-210-0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UWSN3.5 (+106/-135)LAD4.5 (-120/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Alvarez3.5 (+106 / -126)14.5 (-120 / +115)Justin Wrobleski4.5 (+124 / -138)13.5 (-124 / -107)
Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26vs MIAL6.09762300
Aug 25 '26vs COLL4.28165233
Aug 20 '26@ TEXL5.07554311
Aug 14 '26@ NYML5.27342122
Aug 8 '26vs CINW5.17323111
Justin Wrobleski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs STLL2.0*3642123
Aug 15 '26vs MILL6.010764144
Aug 9 '26@ ARIL3.17636334
Aug 3 '26@ CHCL4.19147377
Jul 28 '26vs SEAL6.010277055
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Justin Wrobleski
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.014.40poor4.08.03.0(1)
last season · last met 516 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 8 '25@ WSNL5.08748388
home starts6.06.75poor6.55.50.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26vs MILL6.010764144
Jul 28 '26vs SEAL6.010277055
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph W
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • LAD offense: Whiff% 29.2 (last 6) runs well above what K% 17.2 shows
  • WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, MIA 27%
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: 22 days since last start (2026-08-15) news ↗
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01
  • LAD — Justin Wrobleski: last start: 107 pitches over 6.0 IP
AI Analysis
Los Angeles at -220 is past the price I will lay, and Washington at 1-9 on the road over their last 10 with an 0-5 mark against the Dodgers this season is not the side to take instead; the total at 8.5 fits Alvarez's 3.40 xERA against Wrobleski's 5.11 over their last 3. Wrobleski's outs line at 13.5 already prices the 22-day layoff and his strikeout line of 4.5 is fair for an arm averaging 4.3. Alvarez has fanned 5, 6 and 6 in his last three and the Dodgers' 29.2% whiff rate over their last 6 vs LHP hints at more strikeouts than their 17.2% K rate shows, but his 12.3% walk rate and a 14.5 outs line keep his 3.5 number too close to call.