CLE @ 
TBR8:08 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
CLE @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tanner Bibee R
xERA4.65 (below)ERA9.00 (poor)K%17.0 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)BB%5.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs5.5 IP/gsH/gs9.5PC/gs95
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+26 (poor)K%29.7 (poor)Whiff%28.8 (poor)BB%4.4 (poor)HH%31.1 (below)
L12
wRC+83 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)BB%5.8 (poor)HH%41.0 (above)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.64 (good)ERA0.79 (elite)K%19.6 (avg)Whiff%28.4 (elite)BB%8.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%12.5 (below)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.5PC/gs92
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+78 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%7.6 (below)HH%28.9 (poor)
L12
wRC+106 (avg)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%20.4 (above)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.20 (good)ERA 2.90 (elite)2d stress Stressed (15.0 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 3.86 (avg)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+126+1.5 (-188)O6.5 (-114)TBR-148-1.5 (+162)U6.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+122+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-120)TBR-152-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE2.5 (-140/+112)1.5 (+110/-140)TBR3.5 (+106/-130)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTanner Bibee——Freddy Peralta4.5 (+128 / +120)13.5 (-135 / +113)
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26 '26@ 
W6.09467133
W6.09467133Sep 19 '26vs 
W4.295212066
W4.295212066Sep 13 '26@ 
W6.29674222
W6.29674222Sep 8 '26@ 
W4.16216155
W4.16216155Sep 3 '26vs 
L4.08944555
L4.08944555Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
W5.19344300
W5.19344300Sep 19 '26vs 
W5.29764211
W5.29764211Sep 13 '26vs 
W5.08640300
W5.08640300Sep 8 '26@ 
W6.09225111
W6.09225111Sep 1 '26vs 
W6.07473011
W6.07473011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.73.14good4.76.02.0(3)
at TBR6.13.69good4.07.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25 '26@ L6.010759233
L6.010759233Apr 28 '26vs L5.09364311
L5.09364311Sep 6 '25@ W6.29235122
W6.29235122Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.17.06poor4.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 12 '25@ L5.19544344
L5.19544344home starts5.41.11elite5.72.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19 '26vs W5.29764211
W5.29764211Sep 13 '26vs W5.08640300
W5.08640300Sep 1 '26vs W6.07473011
W6.07473011Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-9 vs TBR this season (12 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 4-1 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 4-1 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 8.8 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 7.4 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 5-0 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-0 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 9-3 vs CLE this season (12 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 4 home starts.
- TBR average 6.2 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 7
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: Whiff% 28.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 19.6 shows
- CLE bullpen stressed (15.0 IP over 2g)
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 23 days since last start (2026-09-26) news ↗
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: 2026-09-19: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.70 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Tanner Bibee: low-K outing 2026-09-19 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: 24 days since last start (2026-09-25) news ↗
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: recent opponents high-K: HOU 31%, BOS 27%
AI Analysis
Freddy Peralta's 0.79 ERA badly overstates him relative to his 3.64 xERA over his last 3 starts, and Tanner Bibee's 9.00 ERA is skewed by one disaster start (6 ER in 4.2 IP) against two solid outings (2 ER/6.2 IP, 3 ER/6.0 IP) — the market's 57% no-vig favorite price on TBR already captures the gap between these two arms, and with both clubs cold vs this pitching hand (CLE 78 wRC+, TBR a brutal 26 wRC+ last 6) there's no clean asymmetry left to exploit on the side or either team total. The total sits at 6.5 with both offenses cold but CLE's bullpen carrying heavy stress (15 IP over 2 days) and both starters working off 23-24 day layoffs, pulling the under and over cases against each other with no decisive lean. On props, Peralta's K line at 4.5 looks fair since his elevated Whiff%-over-K% gap was built against high-K lineups (HOU 31%, BOS 27%) rather than a more contact-oriented CLE club (21.1% K% last 6), and his 13.5 outs line is already priced low enough to match a long-rest start without a reachable edge either way; Bibee carries no posted props to evaluate.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.