LAD @ 
ATL6:00 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
LAD @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%26.9 (below)BB%10.1 (above)HH%44.9 (above)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (below)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%45.4 (elite)
Chris Sale L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
LAD vs LHP
L6
wRC+51 (poor)K%30.8 (poor)Whiff%28.3 (poor)BB%6.2 (poor)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+139 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%19.8 (above)BB%6.9 (below)HH%34.8 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 1.24 (elite)ERA 1.55 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 5.16 (below)ERA 4.42 (avg)2d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-108-1.5 (+162)O6.5 (-102)ATL-108+1.5 (-196)U6.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-104+0.5 (-164)O3.5 (+104)ATL-120-0.5 (+125)U3.5 (-135)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD3.5 (+126/+120)1.5 (+110/-140)ATL2.5 (-140/+118)1.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UYoshinobu Yamamoto6.5 (+115 / -128)17.5 (-215 / +174)Chris Sale7.5 (+116 / -146)18.5 (+127 / -169)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26vs 
L6.08845124
L6.08845124Sep 15 '26@ 
W7.09171200
W7.09171200Sep 9 '26vs W7.090103111
W7.090103111Sep 2 '26vs 
L7.09385244
L7.09385244Aug 27 '26@ L6.110584111
L6.110584111Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26vs W5.297104011
W5.297104011Sep 11 '26vs 
W7.09463233
W7.09463233Sep 4 '26@ W6.010376122
W6.010376122Aug 27 '26vs W9.0109115000
W9.0109115000Aug 21 '26@ 
L6.09468022
L6.09468022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.00.74elite7.02.51.5(2)
at ATL6.00.74elite7.02.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ L6.110584111
L6.110584111May 2 '25@ W6.09161200
W6.09161200Chris Sale
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD7.02.14elite7.74.70.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs W9.0109115000
W9.0109115000May 8 '26@ L7.010275023
L7.010275023Apr 1 '25@ L5.08754033
L5.08754033home starts7.11.70elite9.04.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26vs W5.297104011
W5.297104011Sep 11 '26vs W7.09463233
W7.09463233Aug 27 '26vs W9.0109115000
W9.0109115000Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-6 vs ATL this season (8 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-3 in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 5.0 runs/game in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.6 runs/game in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-3 to the over in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 0-2 to the over in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 2 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 6-2 vs LAD this season (8 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-2 to the over in Chris Sale's last 4 starts.
- ATL are 2-1 to the over in Chris Sale's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph ENE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- LAD — Yoshinobu Yamamoto: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATL — Chris Sale: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.16 over its last 12
- LAD bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g)
- ATL bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g)
- LAD — Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 13 days since last start (2026-09-23) news ↗
- LAD — Yoshinobu Yamamoto: recent opponents high-K: CIN 25%, CIN 25%
- ATL — Chris Sale: 13 days since last start (2026-09-23) news ↗
- ATL — Chris Sale: recent opponents high-K: PHI 31%, PHI 31%, CIN 38%
AI Analysis
Both Yamamoto and Sale are first starts of the season with no current rate stats, so there is no reliable read on either arm's present form — the only data is two-year-old head-to-head history, which is mixed signal. Sale has dominated LAD across three meetings (2.14 ERA, trending toward 0 ER/11K last time) while LAD's offense is ice cold vs lefties over its last 6 (51 wRC+) even though it was elite over the last 12 (139), and ATL's own offense is weak both windows (87/73 wRC+) and the season series sits 2-6 in ATL's favor — but ATL's bullpen is the worst asset on the field (5.16 xERA, stressed) against LAD's elite relief corps (1.24 xERA), so the signals point in opposite directions and none of it clears a confident edge against a market already pricing this as a near coin flip. No props are offered here because both starters are flagged NO STATS, which rules out any K or outs bet on Yamamoto or Sale regardless of the historical matchup trends.
MIL @ SDP9:30 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
MIL @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Dustin May R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%17.5 (above)Whiff%21.9 (avg)BB%9.8 (above)HH%42.3 (above)
L12
wRC+117 (above)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (avg)BB%8.4 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Nick Pivetta R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+106 (avg)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%19.8 (above)BB%12.0 (elite)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%29.8 (poor)Whiff%24.9 (avg)BB%11.1 (elite)HH%34.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 2.10 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 4.58 (below)ERA 3.04 (good)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+116+1.5 (-190)O7.5 (+110)SDP-130-1.5 (+164)U7.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+110+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-138)SDP-135-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL3.5 (+106/-135)1.5 (-120/-110)SDP3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDustin May2.5 (-162 / +132)8.5 (-118 / -112)Nick Pivetta4.5 (+140 / +125)10.5 (-117 / -113)
Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26 '26vs W3.05853122
W3.05853122Sep 22 '26@ L2.03621222
L2.03621222Sep 18 '26@ 
W2.17046133
W2.17046133Sep 11 '26vs W6.08462100
W6.08462100Sep 5 '26@ L3.25655022
L3.25655022Nick Pivetta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24 '26@ W4.28774100
W4.28774100Sep 18 '26vs 
W5.07644111
W5.07644111Sep 13 '26@ 
W4.06955022
W4.06955022Sep 7 '26vs 
W5.06322000
W5.06322000Apr 12 '26vs 
W3.04640000
W3.04640000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP7.31.23elite7.32.71.7(3)
at SDP6.04.00avg4.74.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12 '26@ L7.08364211
L7.08364211Jun 15 '26vs W9.010191100
W9.010191100May 9 '26@ L6.09773223
L6.09773223Jun 9 '25@ W5.08916456
W5.08916456Nick Pivetta
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.25.19below5.04.05.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '25vs W5.211254533
W5.211254533home starts4.30.69elite3.32.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 18 '26vs W5.07644111
W5.07644111Sep 7 '26vs W5.06322000
W5.06322000Apr 12 '26vs W3.04640000
W3.04640000Trends · MIL
- MIL are 4-4 vs SDP this season (8 games).
- MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL have won 7 straight.
- MIL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-3 in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 7.2 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 to the over in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Dustin May's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 4-4 vs MIL this season (8 games).
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 5-0 in Nick Pivetta's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Nick Pivetta's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 5.6 runs/game in Nick Pivetta's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 5.4 runs/game in Nick Pivetta's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-4 to the over in Nick Pivetta's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Nick Pivetta's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- MIL — Dustin May: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SDP — Nick Pivetta: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- MIL offense: K% 24.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 19.8 supports
- MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- MIL — Dustin May: last start: 58 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- MIL — Dustin May: recent opponents high-K: BAL 29%, STL 32%
- SDP — Nick Pivetta: 12 days since last start (2026-09-24) news ↗
AI Analysis
Dustin May and Nick Pivetta are both first starts of the season with no current rate stats, so neither can be bet in the prop markets under any circumstance. May has dominated SDP in three starts this season (1.23 ERA, 7.3 K/gs) but his last outing was just 58 pitches over 3 innings, raising doubt about his stretch-out and leaving an elevated MIL bullpen more exposed, while SDP's offense is legitimately elite vs RHP in both the last 6 (137 wRC+) and last 12 (117) and the club is 9-1 at home over its last 10 — those two realities cancel rather than combine into a clean side or total read, and Pivetta's only data point against Milwaukee is a single start from 379 days ago that carries almost no weight either way.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.