CLE @ 
CHW8:00 PM · Rate FieldPitcher Friendly
CLE @ CHWMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Parker Messick L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
CHW vs LHP
L6
wRC+155 (elite)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%24.0 (avg)BB%6.7 (below)HH%50.7 (elite)
L12
wRC+161 (elite)K%17.4 (above)Whiff%21.1 (avg)BB%9.7 (above)HH%50.9 (elite)
Hagen Smith LBP
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
CLE all hands
L6
wRC+106 (avg)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%17.4 (elite)BB%11.7 (elite)HH%41.4 (above)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%10.3 (above)HH%38.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 2.18 (elite)2d stress Stressed (8.3 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.37 (good)ERA 2.62 (elite)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-112-1.5 (+153)O7.5 (+101)CHW+102+1.5 (-182)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-128-0.5 (+112)O3.5 (-144)CHW+102+0.5 (-146)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UCLE3.5 (-125/-102)CHW3.5 (-102/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UParker Messick6.5 (+124 / -141)15.5 (+101 / -134)Hagen Smith——
Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ 
L3.06426111
L3.06426111Sep 22 '26@ 
W5.09655111
W5.09655111Sep 16 '26vs W6.08687033
W6.08687033Sep 11 '26@ 
W5.19553211
W5.19553211Sep 5 '26vs 
L6.0103127233
L6.0103127233Hagen Smith · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26vs 
W0.2*1810100
W0.2*1810100Sep 23 '26@ L2.0*3322011
L2.0*3322011Sep 20 '26vs W0.2*1810200
W0.2*1810200Sep 18 '26vs L1.0*2030100
L1.0*2030100Sep 16 '26@ L1.2*3021222
L1.2*3021222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.03.00good6.35.31.3(3)
at CHW7.12.54elite9.03.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 16 '26vs W6.08687033
W6.08687033Aug 7 '26@ W7.09784122
W7.09784122Jul 4 '26vs L5.010035311
L5.010035311Jun 23 '26@ L7.295103122
L7.295103122Trends · CLE
- CLE are 7-9 vs CHW this season (16 games).
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Parker Messick's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.8 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Parker Messick's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 9-7 vs CLE this season (16 games).
- CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 0-1 in Hagen Smith's last 1 starts.
- CHW are 0-1 in Hagen Smith's last 1 home starts.
- CHW average 0.0 runs/game in Hagen Smith's last 1 starts.
- CHW average 0.0 runs/game in Hagen Smith's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
60°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph E
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 12
- BULLPEN GAME: CHW have no conventional starter — Hagen Smith is listed (last 5 outings avg 1.2 IP (longest 2.0)). Expect a parade of relievers; CLE's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
- CLE — Parker Messick: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CHW — Hagen Smith: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CLE bullpen stressed (8.3 IP over 1g)
- CHW bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
- CLE — Parker Messick: 11 days since last start (2026-09-27) news ↗
- CLE — Parker Messick: last start: 64 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- CLE — Parker Messick: low-K outing 2026-09-27 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- CHW — Hagen Smith: 28 days since last start (2026-09-10) news ↗
- CHW — Hagen Smith: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-25, 2026-09-23
- CHW — Hagen Smith: last start: 33 pitches over 2.0 IP news ↗
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
AI Analysis
Both starters carry no usable stats this season — Parker Messick is making his first start back and Hagen Smith is really a bullpen-day opener averaging barely two innings a turn, so neither the side nor the total has a reliable pitching read to lean on, and CHW's own bullpen is fresh off 7 stressed innings in its last outing. CHW's lineup has been outstanding against lefties (155 wRC+ over its last 6, 161 over its last 12), but with Messick's current stuff unknown and Smith not a real starter at all, there's no dependable way to size either club's run total or the moneyline/spread. No strikeout or outs prop applies to either pitcher since both are flagged NO STATS and Chicago's is a bullpen game with no starter props in play.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.