MLB Game Overviews

Philadelphia strikes out at a 26.4% clip over its last 6 games against right-handed pitching, and Holmes' 29.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts is running well above his 18.5% K%, suggesting his strikeout total is due to climb. He already punched out 6 in his last outing against this same Philadelphia lineup six days ago, comfortably clearing this number, and the market still prices the over at only even money.

Sean Burke has an 8.10 ERA and a 26.4% walk rate over his last 3 starts, including a 1.1-inning, 7-run disaster his last time out, and he faces a Cardinals lineup running a 135 wRC+ over its last 6 games against right-handed pitching. On the other side, Michael McGreevy carries a 7.02 ERA over his own last 3 starts against a White Sox offense that is league-average, and both bullpens behind these starters are shaky, St. Louis in particular running a 5.43 ERA over its last 12 games. A total of 8.0 undersells how many runs both offenses project to score against these arms.

The Cubs carry a 137 wRC+ over their last 6 games against right-handed pitching, backed up by a consistent 132 wRC+ over the last 12, and they have hit Bubba Chandler hard in both meetings this season, a 6.24 ERA across those two starts. Chicago is averaging 6.6 runs per game at home over its last 5 games behind this kind of matchup, yet the market still favors the under at 54% for this team total.

Kansas City's offense has collapsed against lefties, posting a 26 wRC+ over its last 6 games versus left-handed pitching with a hard-hit rate of just 5.6%, and it faces Payton Tolle, who has an elite 2.50 xERA and a 36.8% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts. The market still installs the Royals as 57% favorites to clear 2.5 runs, which does not match how cold this lineup has been or how well Tolle has missed bats recently.

Bryce Miller has failed to complete five innings in any of his last 3 starts (4.1, 4.2 and 3.2 IP), averaging just 4.2 IP/gs, or about 12.7 outs — nearly three full outs below this line. His walk rate has ballooned to 18.0% over that span with an ERA of 8.61, and his pitch counts have been climbing fast relative to outs recorded, which is why he keeps getting pulled early. The market posted this line at 15.5, well above what his actual recent trend supports.