AI Picks · 8 Bets · Jun 25
HOU @ DET u9.0 (-112)
Troy Melton is genuinely elite (xERA 2.98, recent ERA 1.78 over 3 starts) going deep (6.3 IP/gs) with one of the best bullpens in baseball backing him (DET xERA 2.45, ERA 1.52 — elite). Tatsuya Imai has a massive ERA/xERA gap (7.71 ERA vs 2.82 xERA) suggesting bad luck — his recent ERA of 2.12 (last 3 starts, excluding the skewed outlier) reflects his true elite-level talent. Both starters have strong xERAs sub-3.00. HOU bullpen is also solid (xERA 3.30). The 9.0 total is generous for a game with two elite-xERA pitchers both in good recent form and two of the best bullpens on today's slate. Both offenses are dangerous (HOU 124, DET 120 wRC+) but these pitchers have been suppressing offenses effectively.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
PHI -1.5 (+101)
C. Sanchez is on a historic run (recent ERA 1.29 over 3 starts, all 7.0 IP outings) with a great track record vs WSN specifically (2.67 ERA, 5.0 IP/gs). PHI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 146 in L12), giving a strong compound edge. Cavalli is improving recently (3.94 ERA in last 3) but his xERA 6.66 is poor and PHI historically handles him. The +101 line for PHI -1.5 is exceptional value — getting plus money on a heavy favorite's run line, driven by the Sanchez edge and dominant PHI offense. Both bullpens are average-to-below which doesn't hurt this spread play (Sanchez eats 7 innings anyway). PHI 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts; WSN just 2-3 at home in Cavalli's last 5.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
C. Sanchez Ks o6.5 (+102)
Sanchez is in elite form (recent ERA 1.29, averaging 9.0 K/start in last 3); his xERA is 3.16 with a 24.0 K%; WSN vs LHP has a 25.0 K% — one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball, which is BETTER than the high-K TOR/MIL teams he just dominated; Sanchez has 6.5 K/gs historical vs WSN; he's averaging 6.2 IP/gs and has been going 7 full innings in each of his last 3 starts with 97-107 pitch counts, so he'll have the innings to accumulate Ks; the adjusted K expectation (~8-9) is well above the 6.5 line; +102 offers genuine value.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
NYY @ BOS u8.0 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup: Schlittler xERA 2.76 (season ERA 0.96 << xERA, but still elite) with a dominant recent history vs BOS (1.36 ERA, 6.6 IP/gs in 2 starts, 1.12 ERA at Fenway). Connelly Early is genuinely good (xERA 3.10, recent ERA 3.31 trending toward his true talent), with a strong 7.0 IP/0 ER outing just last time. Both bullpens are strong: NYY 3.51 xERA, BOS 2.71 xERA — best pen combo of the entire slate, which protects the low number all 9 innings. BOS offense vs RHP is cold (wRC+ 94 in L12) against an elite pitcher dominating them specifically. NYY vs LHP is average (114 wRC+). STL run-support trends are irrelevant here — BOS averages just 4.0 RS in Early's starts. The 8.0 total is a fair market number with real under edge given both starter quality and elite bullpen support.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
NYY -1.5 (+120)
Cam Schlittler has an elite xERA 2.76, and his matchup history vs BOS is outstanding (1.36 ERA, 6.6 IP/gs over 2 starts including a 1.12 ERA / 8.0 IP at this very park). NYY is 4-1 in his last 5 starts with 6.6 RS avg, and 4-1 on the road. Connelly Early struggles at home (5.52 ERA in last 3 home starts) and vs NYY (5.29 ERA). BOS offense is below average in L12 (wRC+ 94). NYY bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.51, ERA 3.00) and BOS bullpen is also solid (xERA 2.71), meaning the pitching edge for NYY is not eroded by pen risk. Getting NYY -1.5 at +120 is excellent value — essentially being paid to take the better team with the better pitcher in a favorable matchup.
Found at 12:51 PM ET
ARI @ STL o9.0 (-105)
Strong over case: Zac Gallen is in acute collapse (recent ERA 7.75 vs xERA 5.38 — both signal runs, 9.39 season ERA), McGreevy has a sketchy xERA (4.78) with a bad start recently and a 10.2% barrel rate; STL offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 138, 45.4 HH%); ARI offense is average but STL bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.64, ERA 6.69 — a disqualifying-level pen meaning runs WILL come after 5); both starters average <6 IP/gs, so both shaky pens will see a lot of action; Gallen has a 6.92 ERA in his only career start at Busch Stadium; combined signals strongly favor runs well exceeding 9 on this total.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
SEA @ PIT u8.5 (-115)
Bryce Miller is elite: xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 in last 3 starts (17 IP, 0 ER), K% 37.1 — he is completely locked in right now. SEA bullpen xERA 2.40 is the best in the entire slate and will protect the number. SEA offense is poor (wRC+ 74 vs RHP in L12, worst of all teams today). Chandler has been struggling recently (7.20 recent ERA) but his xERA 2.83 and strikeout profile suggest regression toward true talent; the flag about the skewing start is noted, and his other recent outings show upward trajectory. PIT offense at 134 wRC+ is dangerous but Miller is so dominant that this doesn't concern greatly. The 8.5 total requires both sides to get to 5+ runs each — Miller's 0.00 ERA over 17 recent innings makes that nearly impossible on the SEA side, and SEA's elite bullpen suppresses PIT. PNC Park is neutral (APF 100).
Found at 11:38 AM ET
SEA @ PIT F5 u4.5 (-122)
Bryce Miller is historically elite (xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 over last 3 starts, 37.1 K%, 1.42 season ERA); SEA offense is very cold (wRC+ 74 L12, worst in this slate) facing Chandler who despite recent struggles has a 2.83 xERA; the first 5 innings are dominated by two starters with strong suppression profiles, limiting the F5 total; both teams combined score <4.5 in the first 5 innings is very plausible with Miller elite and SEA offense ice-cold; limiting to F5 avoids the shaky Chandler bullpen exposure and the risk of both bullpens inflating the full-game total.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
KCR @ 
TBR12:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
KCR @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Noah Cameron L
xERA3.78 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA4.11IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs101BB%2.9
TBR vs LHP
wRC+80 (below avg)K%18.8 (above avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)
Griffin Jax R
xERA5.17 (below avg)K%25.4 (good)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA1.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs73BB%3.6
KCR vs RHP
wRC+141 (elite)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+120+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-105)TBR-136-1.5 (+164)U8.5 (-114)
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ L5.010858355
L5.010858355Jun 18vs 
W5.010868234
W5.010868234Jun 13vs 
L4.18617044
L4.18617044Jun 7@ 
W6.010473001
W6.010473001Jun 2@ 
L7.08781011
L7.08781011Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs W5.08875202
W5.08875202Jun 19vs 
W5.06954022
W5.06954022Jun 13@ 
L5.06355001
L5.06355001Jun 7@ 
L5.06243200
L5.06243200Jun 1vs 
L4.07257166
L4.07257166SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.54.054.04.54.0(2)
at TBR5.54.054.04.54.0(2)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.00.007.05.02.0(1)
home starts4.75.145.75.31.0(3)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-1 vs TBR this season (3 games).
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Noah Cameron's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 6.6 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 3.4 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 1-2 vs KCR this season (3 games).
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.0 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.6 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.14 (avg)ERA 4.50
TBR
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 5.44
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 3
- TBR — Griffin Jax: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR — Noah Cameron: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- KCR — Noah Cameron: recent opponents low-K: STL 14%, TBR 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
SEA @ 
PIT✓12:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
SEA @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryan Woo R
xERA4.09 (avg)K%26.7 (good)HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%9.6 (avg)ERA5.89IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs86BB%2.7
PIT vs RHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%23.8 (avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Braxton Ashcraft R
xERA3.44 (good)K%22.2 (avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA5.06IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs90BB%6.9
SEA vs RHP
wRC+69 (poor)K%23.8 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-138-1.5 (+126)O8.5 (-108)PIT+120+1.5 (-143)U8.5 (-105)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ L4.08646255
L4.08646255Jun 18vs 
W7.08993100
W7.08993100Jun 11@ L5.08247177
L5.08247177Jun 5@ L6.19079055
L6.19079055May 30vs 
W7.08692000
W7.08692000Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs W6.086105011
W6.086105011Jun 17@ 
W6.09374312
W6.09374312Jun 12vs L5.09045222
L5.09045222Jun 6@ 
L5.08659066
L5.08659066May 31vs W6.080115022
W6.080115022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.04.506.04.52.0(2)
at PIT4.011.254.06.02.0(1)
Braxton Ashcraft
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA6.01.5010.05.00.0(1)
home starts5.72.658.35.00.7(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-1 vs PIT this season (2 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-4 in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 3.4 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-1 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 7.6 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 8.8 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 2.53 (elite)ERA 4.68
PIT
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 5.11
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 11 mph SW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- SEA — Bryan Woo: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SEA — Bryan Woo: recent opponents high-K: BAL 27%, BAL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
SEA @ PIT u8.5 (-115)
Bryce Miller is elite: xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 in last 3 starts (17 IP, 0 ER), K% 37.1 — he is completely locked in right now. SEA bullpen xERA 2.40 is the best in the entire slate and will protect the number. SEA offense is poor (wRC+ 74 vs RHP in L12, worst of all teams today). Chandler has been struggling recently (7.20 recent ERA) but his xERA 2.83 and strikeout profile suggest regression toward true talent; the flag about the skewing start is noted, and his other recent outings show upward trajectory. PIT offense at 134 wRC+ is dangerous but Miller is so dominant that this doesn't concern greatly. The 8.5 total requires both sides to get to 5+ runs each — Miller's 0.00 ERA over 17 recent innings makes that nearly impossible on the SEA side, and SEA's elite bullpen suppresses PIT. PNC Park is neutral (APF 100).
SEA @ PIT F5 u4.5 (-122)
Bryce Miller is historically elite (xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 over last 3 starts, 37.1 K%, 1.42 season ERA); SEA offense is very cold (wRC+ 74 L12, worst in this slate) facing Chandler who despite recent struggles has a 2.83 xERA; the first 5 innings are dominated by two starters with strong suppression profiles, limiting the F5 total; both teams combined score <4.5 in the first 5 innings is very plausible with Miller elite and SEA offense ice-cold; limiting to F5 avoids the shaky Chandler bullpen exposure and the risk of both bullpens inflating the full-game total.
ATH @ 
SFG3:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
ATH @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gage Jump L
xERA2.91 (elite)K%23.2 (good)HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA1.47IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%10.1
SFG vs LHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%19.6 (above avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Tyler Mahle R
xERA2.86 (elite)K%22.4 (avg)HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%4.2 (elite)ERA8.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs77BB%6.0
ATH vs RHP
wRC+150 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)HH%36.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+113+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-115)SFG-130-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (+100)
Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ L5.09793100
L5.09793100Jun 18vs W7.010771300
W7.010771300Jun 12vs 
W5.07565133
W5.07565133Jun 7@ W6.19633300
W6.19633300Jun 2@ 
W7.08553111
W7.08553111Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs W5.27042200
W5.27042200May 26vs L5.08133333
L5.08133333May 20@ L5.07968066
L5.07968066May 15@ L5.090610155
L5.090610155May 10vs W5.29785244
W5.29785244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.00.009.03.01.0(1)
at SFG5.00.009.03.01.0(1)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.43.335.35.71.3(3)
home starts5.14.095.03.32.3(3)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 1-4 vs SFG this season (5 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 4 straight.
- ATH are 4-1 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 in Gage Jump's last 3 away starts.
- ATH average 3.8 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 2.7 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-1 vs ATH this season (5 games).
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 4-1 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 3.8 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.4 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 7.14
SFG
xERA 4.78 (below avg)ERA 4.66
Weather · Neutral Conditions
62°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 12 mph WSW
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- ATH — Gage Jump: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, LAA 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- SFG — Tyler Mahle: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SFG — Tyler Mahle: 2026-05-20: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SFG — Tyler Mahle: recent opponents low-K: ARI 19%, ARI 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Gage Jump is elite (xERA 2.91, recent ERA 1.99) which caps the over, but Mahle's xERA 2.86 is also elite despite the ugly recent ERA — his recent struggles are driven by a single 6-ER blowup skewing the sample per the flagged note, and the market's U8.5 +100 line already reflects that the starters are dominant. ATH's run-support in Jump's starts averages only 3.8 RS and 2.7 RS away, so there's no clean side angle. The combination of two elite xERAs, modest run support trends, and a total that seems fairly priced makes this a pass.
PHI @ WSN✓6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
PHI @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Aaron Nola R
xERA3.43 (good)K%18.8 (avg)HH%34.7 (good)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA6.43IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs89BB%10.1
WSN vs RHP
wRC+102 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Miles Mikolas R
xERA2.65 (elite)K%10.6 (poor)HH%37.9 (avg)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA2.55IP/gs17.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs76BB%1.5
PHI vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-186-1.5 (-110)O8.5 (+100)WSN+156+1.5 (-102)U8.0 (-102)
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ W5.08653222
W5.08653222Jun 18vs 
L5.09767123
L5.09767123Jun 13@ 
W4.28536233
W4.28536233Jun 7vs 
W4.19846455
W4.19846455Jun 2vs 
W5.09584022
W5.09584022Miles Mikolas · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs L3.1*6015002
L3.1*6015002Jun 19@ L6.0*8529155
L6.0*8529155Jun 14vs W7.0*8333000
W7.0*8333000Jun 8@ W4.2*5423000
W4.2*5423000Jun 2vs L6.0*9246266
L6.0*9246266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.46.875.05.01.3(3)
at WSN4.19.595.75.31.0(3)
Miles Mikolas
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.05.406.03.02.0(1)
home starts—
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 4-2 vs WSN this season (6 games).
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 5-0 in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 6.0 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 6.0 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-4 vs PHI this season (6 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 3-2 in Miles Mikolas's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 in Miles Mikolas's last 3 home starts.
- WSN average 7.4 runs/game in Miles Mikolas's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 7.3 runs/game in Miles Mikolas's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 5.18
WSN
xERA 4.56 (below avg)ERA 6.83
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- WSN — Miles Mikolas: 44 days since last start (2026-05-12) — may not be fully stretched out
- WSN — Miles Mikolas: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-24, 2026-06-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WSN — Miles Mikolas: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WSN — Miles Mikolas: recent opponents high-K: NYM 26%, CIN 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
PHI -1.5 (+101)
C. Sanchez is on a historic run (recent ERA 1.29 over 3 starts, all 7.0 IP outings) with a great track record vs WSN specifically (2.67 ERA, 5.0 IP/gs). PHI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 146 in L12), giving a strong compound edge. Cavalli is improving recently (3.94 ERA in last 3) but his xERA 6.66 is poor and PHI historically handles him. The +101 line for PHI -1.5 is exceptional value — getting plus money on a heavy favorite's run line, driven by the Sanchez edge and dominant PHI offense. Both bullpens are average-to-below which doesn't hurt this spread play (Sanchez eats 7 innings anyway). PHI 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts; WSN just 2-3 at home in Cavalli's last 5.
C. Sanchez Ks o6.5 (+102)
Sanchez is in elite form (recent ERA 1.29, averaging 9.0 K/start in last 3); his xERA is 3.16 with a 24.0 K%; WSN vs LHP has a 25.0 K% — one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball, which is BETTER than the high-K TOR/MIL teams he just dominated; Sanchez has 6.5 K/gs historical vs WSN; he's averaging 6.2 IP/gs and has been going 7 full innings in each of his last 3 starts with 97-107 pitch counts, so he'll have the innings to accumulate Ks; the adjusted K expectation (~8-9) is well above the 6.5 line; +102 offers genuine value.
CHC @ NYM7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
CHC @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Javier Assad R
xERA2.29 (elite)K%17.2 (avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA1.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs87BB%3.1
NYM vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%25.6 (below avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Sean Manaea L
xERA3.46 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%47.7 (poor)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.52IP/gs7.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs88BB%3.3
CHC vs LHP
wRC+212 (elite)K%16.3 (above avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-104-1.5 (+162)O8.5 (-102)NYM-112+1.5 (-190)U8.5 (-110)
Javier Assad · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ W5.08355233
W5.08355233Jun 17vs W5.29215022
W5.29215022Jun 12@ W6.08553100
W6.08553100Jun 7vs L6.1*7251100
L6.1*7251100May 15@ W2.0*3913011
W2.0*3913011Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs L3.08646234
L3.08646234Jun 18@ W5.19556123
W5.19556123Jun 13vs L6.08464022
L6.08464022Jun 7@ W4.0*6634122
W4.0*6634122Jun 1@ L5.0*6341111
L5.0*6341111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Javier Assad
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.13.534.04.01.0(2)
at NYM5.05.405.05.02.0(1)
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.09.004.06.02.0(1)
home starts4.55.005.05.01.0(2)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 6-1 vs NYM this season (7 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Javier Assad's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 5.0 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 6.2 runs/game in Javier Assad's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-6 vs CHC this season (7 games).
- NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM have lost 6 straight.
- NYM are 1-2 in Sean Manaea's last 3 starts.
- NYM are 0-2 in Sean Manaea's last 2 home starts.
- NYM average 4.0 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 3 starts.
- NYM average 3.0 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.89 (below avg)ERA 5.72
NYM
xERA 3.73 (good)ERA 4.23
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 14 mph SSE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- NYM — Sean Manaea: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07, 2026-05-15 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — Javier Assad: recent opponents low-K: SFG 19%, COL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- NYM — Sean Manaea: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07, 2026-06-01 — may affect pitch count or availability
- NYM — Sean Manaea: 2026-06-24: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ARI @ STL✓7:45 PM · Busch StadiumRainy, Windy
ARI @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Bratt L
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
STL vs LHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%14.0 (elite)HH%43.1 (above avg)
M. Liberatore L
xERA7.51 (poor)K%19.2 (avg)HH%47.4 (poor)Barrel%18.4 (poor)ERA10.45IP/gs3.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs72BB%7.7
ARI vs LHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%14.2 (elite)HH%34.5 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+113+1.5 (-188)O9.0 (-102)STL-130-1.5 (+158)U9.0 (-115)
Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ W3.05432211
W3.05432211M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs L5.19838266
L5.19838266Jun 18@ L1.24827057
L1.24827057Jun 13@ W4.17045144
W4.17045144Jun 6vs W4.18444335
W4.18444335May 31vs W5.18543100
W5.18543100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Bratt
IPERAKHBB
vs STL3.03.003.02.02.0(1)
at STL3.03.003.02.02.0(1)
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.05.213.57.01.0(2)
home starts4.85.663.75.02.0(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-1 vs STL this season (3 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 1-0 in Mitch Bratt's last 1 starts.
- ARI are 1-0 in Mitch Bratt's last 1 away starts.
- ARI average 9.0 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 1 starts.
- ARI average 9.0 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 1 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 1-2 vs ARI this season (3 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 3-2 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 6.0 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 6.2 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.73 (below avg)ERA 4.35
STL
xERA 5.39 (poor)ERA 6.69
Weather · Rainy, Windy
76°F, Heavy Rain, Wind 23 mph SW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- STL — M. Liberatore: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL — M. Liberatore: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- STL — M. Liberatore: avg 3.4 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.39 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: last start: 54 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- STL — M. Liberatore: recent opponents low-K: MIN 18%, ARI 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 23 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
ARI @ STL o9.0 (-105)
Strong over case: Zac Gallen is in acute collapse (recent ERA 7.75 vs xERA 5.38 — both signal runs, 9.39 season ERA), McGreevy has a sketchy xERA (4.78) with a bad start recently and a 10.2% barrel rate; STL offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 138, 45.4 HH%); ARI offense is average but STL bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.64, ERA 6.69 — a disqualifying-level pen meaning runs WILL come after 5); both starters average <6 IP/gs, so both shaky pens will see a lot of action; Gallen has a 6.92 ERA in his only career start at Busch Stadium; combined signals strongly favor runs well exceeding 9 on this total.