AI Picks · 8 Bets · Jul 3
STL @ CHC o10.5 (-108)
Elite over conditions: CHC offense wRC+ 146 (elite) vs Pallante who has a brutal 11.74 ERA in 3 career starts at this matchup (3.1 IP/gs avg — gets hammered early). STL wRC+ only 68 vs LHP but David Peterson has a 6.39 ERA, 4.52 xERA, short recent outings (3.0, 3.2, 4.0 IP), only 69 pitches last start (early hook concern), and a 10.80 ERA at home in 1 prior start. Both bullpens are bad (STL xERA 5.17, CHC xERA 4.65). CHC 9-1 L10, averaging 8.0 RS in this starter's recent starts. Multiple disqualifying factors for both pitchers — Pallante gets destroyed by CHC historically, Peterson has early-hook risk and bad xERA. Stacked over signals.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
CHC Team Total o5.5 (-125)
CHC offense is elite (wRC+ 146 L12) facing Pallante who has a 11.74 ERA in 3 career starts vs CHC with only 3.1 IP/gs average — he gets lit up and exits early. STL bullpen xERA 5.17 means the Cubs will keep scoring after Pallante exits. CHC averaging 8.0 RS in this starter's last start trend. Pure offensive edge play that doesn't depend on STL scoring.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
PIT @ WSN F5 u4.5 (+112)
Foster Griffin is elite (xERA 2.24, recent ERA 1.59 over 3 starts, 6.8 IP/gs) and PIT wRC+ only 70 vs LHP (poor) with K% 28% — he matches up perfectly. Despite Griffin's 7.06 ERA in 1 prior start vs PIT, his current form is dominant. Mitch Keller is struggling (recent ERA 8.12) but WSN wRC+ 124 is dangerous — the concern here limits a full-game under. F5 captures Griffin's dominance against a weak PIT lineup while limiting exposure to WSN's bad bullpen. Getting +112 on the under is excellent value given Griffin's elite metrics. Note: WSN bullpen flag (xERA 5.18) disqualifies full-game under.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
SFG Team Total o5.5 (-130)
SFG faces Ryan Feltner who has a recent ERA of 5.66 over 3 starts and a 5.03 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. Playing at Coors Field (APF 115 — most hitter-friendly park in baseball). SFG offense wRC+ 121 (above avg). COL bullpen xERA 5.09 (bad) means Giants keep scoring after Feltner exits. Logan Webb dominant on the mound is irrelevant here — this is a pure offensive team total play for SFG scoring at Coors vs a struggling home starter and weak pen.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
LAA F5 ML (-140)
Reid Detmers is absolutely dominant right now: recent ERA 0.45 over 3 starts (7.0IP/0ER, 7.0IP/1ER, 6.0IP/0ER), xERA 3.32 (good), 1.78 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. BOS offense wRC+ only 124 vs LHP but Jake Bennett for BOS is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.92, avg only 3.3 K/start with K% dropping vs better lineups). Detmers' dominance in the first 5 innings is the primary edge. F5 ML at -140 is at the pricing limit but justified given Detmers' exceptional current form. LAA 4-1 in SP home starts L5.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
Line Warning: If -140 is too steep, consider LAA Team Total Under 3.5 for BOS as a fade, or look for a better-priced LAA F5 line.
MIA @ ATH o10.5 (-106)
Both starters are genuinely struggling right now: Tyler Phillips has xERA 6.04 (poor), recent ERA 8.00 over 3 starts, HH% 54%, Barrel% 14% — extreme hard contact risk. Jack Perkins has recent ERA 7.62, ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.62 (ERA > xERA gap — bad results are real). MIA offense wRC+ 139 (elite) vs RHP. Hitter-friendly park (APF 108 — flag confirms park boosts offense). Both bullpens are non-factors as primary stoppers. Phillips' 8 ER in 4.0 IP last month is the ceiling for this guy. The total at 10.5 still reflects value given both starters' current trajectories.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
TOR @ SEA u7.0 (-103)
Elite pitching matchup: Dylan Cease xERA 2.81 (elite), recent ERA 1.78 (HOT), averaging 8.7 K/start. Luis Castillo xERA 2.96 (elite), recent ERA 2.60, 7.8 IP/gs workhorse. Both offenses are cold: TOR wRC+ 90 (below avg), SEA wRC+ 80 (below avg). Pitcher-friendly park (APF 91 — flag confirms suppresses offense). SEA bullpen xERA 3.00 (solid). TOR bullpen xERA 3.74 (solid). Cease's last start was 107 pitches (minor concern about early hook), but the bullpen flag says manager likely leaves him in longer due to TOR bullpen being stressed. Note: Cease's bad ERA vs SEA historically (8.78 in 1 start) and bad command (BB% 19%) are risks, but his current form is elite and the park + both cold offenses strongly support the under at just -103.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
Dylan Cease Ks o7.5 (-104)
Cease is averaging 8.7 K/start over his last 3 outings (7K, 11K, 8K). K% of 36.2% is exceptional. SEA lineup K% 27.0% vs RHP — above-average strikeout rate, comparable to recent opponents (BOS ~21%, PHI ~22%, PIT ~26%). SEA actually strikes out at a higher rate than most of Cease's recent opponents, which supports the high K line being reachable. Adjusted expectation ~8.5+ Ks. Line of 7.5 at -104 is excellent pricing for a pitcher of this caliber. Outs line at 17.5 (nearly 6 innings) suggests market expects him to pitch deep enough to accumulate. BB% 19% is a concern but elite K% overcomes it. TOR bullpen stressed means manager extends Cease.
Found at 6:15 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
STL @ 
CHC✓4:05 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
STL @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Andre Pallante R
xERA3.24 (good)K%15.8 (below avg)HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%3.2 (elite)ERA3.66IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs92BB%1.3
CHC vs RHP
wRC+146 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)HH%35.3 (avg)
David Peterson L
xERA4.52 (below avg)K%15.1 (below avg)HH%26.8 (elite)Barrel%4.9 (elite)ERA6.39IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs67BB%7.5
STL vs LHP
wRC+68 (poor)K%19.5 (above avg)HH%40.7 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+112+1.5 (-175)O10.5 (-108)CHC-130-1.5 (+150)U10.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+102+0.5 (-132)O5.5 (-114)CHC-128-0.5 (+102)U5.5 (-114)
Team Totals
OverUnderSTLO4.5 (-132)U4.5 (+110)CHCO5.5 (+110)U5.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndre Pallante3.5 (-142 / +116)17.5 (-101 / -131)David Peterson——
Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs 
L6.298411155
L6.298411155Jun 22vs 
W6.08526011
W6.08526011Jun 16vs 
W7.09264022
W7.09264022Jun 10@ 
W6.09353222
W6.09353222Jun 3vs 
W5.28553211
W5.28553211David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ 
W5.26925022
W5.26925022Jun 21@ 
L4.07956245
L4.07956245Jun 15@ 
L3.0*5412233
L3.0*5412233Jun 10vs L3.2*6317266
L3.2*6317266May 31vs W4.0*5131100
W4.0*5131100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.111.741.77.31.3(3)
at CHC—
David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.15.299.07.00.0(1)
home starts5.010.804.011.03.0(1)
Trends · STL
- STL are 2-1 vs CHC this season (3 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 4.2 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 5.6 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 1-2 vs STL this season (3 games).
- CHC are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC have won 5 straight.
- CHC are 1-0 in David Peterson's last 1 starts.
- CHC average 8.0 runs/game in David Peterson's last 1 starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 5.17 (below avg)ERA 5.732d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.65 (below avg)ERA 4.892d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph ESE
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- STL bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — Andre Pallante: 2026-06-27: 5 ER in 6.2 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — Andre Pallante: recent opponents low-K: ARI 16%, MIA 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-15, 2026-06-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — David Peterson: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
STL @ CHC o10.5 (-108)
Elite over conditions: CHC offense wRC+ 146 (elite) vs Pallante who has a brutal 11.74 ERA in 3 career starts at this matchup (3.1 IP/gs avg — gets hammered early). STL wRC+ only 68 vs LHP but David Peterson has a 6.39 ERA, 4.52 xERA, short recent outings (3.0, 3.2, 4.0 IP), only 69 pitches last start (early hook concern), and a 10.80 ERA at home in 1 prior start. Both bullpens are bad (STL xERA 5.17, CHC xERA 4.65). CHC 9-1 L10, averaging 8.0 RS in this starter's recent starts. Multiple disqualifying factors for both pitchers — Pallante gets destroyed by CHC historically, Peterson has early-hook risk and bad xERA. Stacked over signals.
CHC Team Total o5.5 (-125)
CHC offense is elite (wRC+ 146 L12) facing Pallante who has a 11.74 ERA in 3 career starts vs CHC with only 3.1 IP/gs average — he gets lit up and exits early. STL bullpen xERA 5.17 means the Cubs will keep scoring after Pallante exits. CHC averaging 8.0 RS in this starter's last start trend. Pure offensive edge play that doesn't depend on STL scoring.
PIT @ 
WSN✓6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHot
PIT @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Keller R
xERA4.23 (avg)K%20.5 (avg)HH%49.0 (poor)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA5.19IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs89BB%8.2
WSN vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%25.3 (below avg)HH%42.3 (above avg)
Foster Griffin L
xERA2.24 (elite)K%30.4 (elite)HH%32.0 (good)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA0.89IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs106BB%5.1
PIT vs LHP
wRC+70 (poor)K%28.0 (poor)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+120+1.5 (-170)O9.5 (-107)WSN-140-1.5 (+142)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+124+0.5 (-115)O4.5 (-146)WSN-156-0.5 (-113)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
OverUnderPITO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-122)WSNO4.5 (-132)U4.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch Keller3.5 (-158 / +128)—Foster Griffin6.5 (+110 / +136)17.5 (-145 / +110)
Mitch Keller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28vs W6.07945134
W6.07945134Jun 23vs 
L6.09247133
L6.09247133Jun 16@ 
W5.19674415
W5.19674415Jun 11vs 
L4.09837455
L4.09837455Jun 5@ 
L4.29947366
L4.29947366Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ 
W7.011293201
W7.011293201Jun 22vs W7.110594011
W7.110594011Jun 16vs 
W6.010066211
W6.010066211Jun 10@ 
L6.010056011
L6.010056011Jun 5@ W5.06242011
W5.06242011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Keller
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.05.963.35.32.3(3)
at WSN5.13.534.04.01.0(1)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.17.067.08.01.0(1)
home starts6.02.496.75.01.3(3)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-2 vs WSN this season (4 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Mitch Keller's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 5.2 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 4.6 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-2 vs PIT this season (4 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 4-1 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 4-1 in Foster Griffin's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 7.6 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 5.8 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 4.50 (avg)ERA 4.542d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 5.18 (below avg)ERA 6.432d stress Stressed (6.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
104°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- PIT — Mitch Keller: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.18 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- PIT bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WSN bullpen stressed (6.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PIT — Mitch Keller: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — Mitch Keller: recent opponents high-K: ATH 28%, SEA 27%, CIN 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WSN — Foster Griffin: last start: 112 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- WSN — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: PHI 27%, BAL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
PIT @ WSN F5 u4.5 (+112)
Foster Griffin is elite (xERA 2.24, recent ERA 1.59 over 3 starts, 6.8 IP/gs) and PIT wRC+ only 70 vs LHP (poor) with K% 28% — he matches up perfectly. Despite Griffin's 7.06 ERA in 1 prior start vs PIT, his current form is dominant. Mitch Keller is struggling (recent ERA 8.12) but WSN wRC+ 124 is dangerous — the concern here limits a full-game under. F5 captures Griffin's dominance against a weak PIT lineup while limiting exposure to WSN's bad bullpen. Getting +112 on the under is excellent value given Griffin's elite metrics. Note: WSN bullpen flag (xERA 5.18) disqualifies full-game under.
MIN @ 
NYY7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumHot
MIN @ NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mike Paredes R
xERA7.22 (poor)K%7.7 (poor)HH%58.9 (poor)Barrel%10.7 (avg)ERA4.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs69BB%4.6
NYY vs RHP
wRC+15 (poor)K%31.2 (poor)HH%35.6 (avg)
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.90 (avg)K%22.5 (avg)HH%42.0 (below avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA6.32IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs89BB%5.6
MIN vs RHP
wRC+148 (elite)K%15.0 (elite)HH%37.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+158+1.5 (-125)O10.0 (-102)NYY-188-1.5 (+112)U9.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN+146+0.5 (+100)O5.5 (-110)NYY-184-0.5 (-130)U5.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderMINO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-140)NYYO5.5 (+102)U5.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMike Paredes3.5 (+115 / -130)14.5 (-106 / -126)Gerrit Cole5.5 (-120 / -105)17.5 (-120 / -105)
Mike Paredes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs 
L5.17428033
L5.17428033Jun 21@ W5.07516322
W5.07516322Jun 15@ W4.25924022
W4.25924022Jun 10@ 
W3.05841211
W3.05841211Jun 4vs L3.2*5012133
L3.2*5012133Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ 
L5.18957144
L5.18957144Jun 22@ L4.18959155
L4.18959155Jun 16vs 
W6.09063222
W6.09063222Jun 9@ 
W4.08345222
W4.08345222Jun 3vs L5.18326144
L5.18326144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN—
home starts5.73.163.33.72.0(3)
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 3-1 in Mike Paredes's last 4 starts.
- MIN are 3-0 in Mike Paredes's last 3 away starts.
- MIN average 4.8 runs/game in Mike Paredes's last 4 starts.
- MIN average 4.7 runs/game in Mike Paredes's last 3 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY have lost 7 straight.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 3 home starts.
- NYY average 4.6 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 6.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 4.73 (below avg)ERA 6.962d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 2.31 (elite)ERA 2.202d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
100°F, Clear, Wind 1 mph WSW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- MIN — Mike Paredes: HH% 59% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN — Mike Paredes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-04, 2026-05-31 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIN — Mike Paredes: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Mike Paredes has catastrophic underlying metrics (xERA 7.22, HH% 59%) — MIN offense wRC+ 148 (elite) should feast; however MIN bullpen xERA 4.73 (bad) and NYY bullpen xERA 2.31 (elite) create asymmetric second-half risk; total at 10.0 already reflects Paredes' weakness; NYY ML -188 is too expensive; NYY -1.5 spread at +112 is interesting but NYY offense wRC+ only 15 (extremely poor) makes run-scoring uncertain even with a bad Paredes.
BAL @ CIN7:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHot
BAL @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Trevor Rogers L
xERA2.07 (elite)K%23.9 (good)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA1.40IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs88BB%5.6
CIN vs LHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
Brady Singer R
xERA3.87 (avg)K%25.4 (good)HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA3.31IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs98BB%7.0
BAL vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%27.7 (below avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-120-1.5 (+128)O10.0 (-106)CIN+104+1.5 (-150)U9.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-132-0.5 (+100)O5.5 (-104)CIN+106+0.5 (-130)U5.5 (-125)
Team Totals
OverUnderBALO5.5 (+112)U5.5 (-140)CINO4.5 (-111)U4.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers5.5 (+104 / -122)—Brady Singer5.5 (+124 / +113)15.5 (+112 / -149)
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs W6.18775011
W6.18775011Jun 20@ W7.09661200
W7.09661200Jun 14vs L6.08245222
L6.08245222Jun 9vs L5.29736133
L5.29736133Jun 4@ W5.28735111
W5.28735111Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ L4.19869055
L4.19869055Jun 22vs L7.010672200
L7.010672200Jun 16vs W5.09153311
W5.09153311Jun 10@ L6.09556122
L6.09556122Jun 5@ L4.08964314
L4.08964314SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL—
home starts5.72.124.73.03.0(3)
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 4.2 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 5.0 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 3.4 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.2 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.33 (elite)ERA 2.912d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 4.07 (avg)ERA 4.752d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
99°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SSW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 1
- CIN — Brady Singer: 2026-06-28: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Trevor Rogers' recent ERA 3.29 vs his elite xERA 2.07 shows modest underperformance but not disqualifying; Brady Singer is hot (recent ERA 2.40) at home (2.12 ERA at home); CIN wRC+ 129 vs LHP is strong for an over but total at 10.0 already reflects both sides' risk; neither under (Rogers fine, Singer hot) nor over (Singer hot) has enough aligned signals.
CHW @ CLE7:10 PM · Progressive FieldHot
CHW @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Anthony Kay L
xERA3.65 (good)K%18.2 (avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA5.27IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%6.1
CLE vs LHP
wRC+11 (poor)K%34.3 (poor)HH%35.1 (avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA3.70 (good)K%26.1 (good)HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA6.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%8.7
CHW vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+119+1.5 (-182)O8.5 (-102)CLE-134-1.5 (+155)U8.0 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+112+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-114)CLE-140-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
OverUnderCHWO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (-102)CLEO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAnthony Kay5.5 (+120 / +130)15.5 (-116 / -114)Gavin Williams6.5 (+125 / +130)17.5 (-152 / +130)
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28vs L3.27327145
L3.27327145Jun 22vs W6.010183200
W6.010183200Jun 17@ L4.08626144
L4.08626144Jun 12vs W5.08974122
W5.08974122Jun 5@ L4.08747266
L4.08747266Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28vs W5.010366323
W5.010366323Jun 22@ L5.09585122
L5.09585122Jun 17@ L5.08747277
L5.08747277Jun 8vs L5.09054334
L5.09054334Jun 3@ W5.19664133
W5.19664133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.00.008.03.02.0(1)
at CLE—
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.03.606.74.02.7(3)
home starts5.73.185.04.32.7(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-2 vs CLE this season (4 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-4 in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 5.8 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.6 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-2 vs CHW this season (4 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.272d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 5.33 (poor)ERA 6.192d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WNW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- CLE — Gavin Williams: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.33 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CHW bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Anthony Kay: last start: 73 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHW — Anthony Kay: 2026-06-28: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHW — Anthony Kay: recent opponents high-K: NYY 29%, CLE 34% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-06-17: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are genuinely struggling (Kay recent ERA 8.31, Williams recent ERA 7.75) but CLE wRC+ vs LHP only 11 (extremely poor) partially offsets Kay's struggles; CLE bullpen xERA 5.33 disqualifies full-game CLE ML/spread; total structure (O8.5/U8.0 alt lines) reduces clarity; no clean edge identified.
NYM @ ATL7:15 PM · Truist ParkHot
NYM @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Christian Scott R
xERA4.71 (below avg)K%24.6 (good)HH%36.6 (avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA3.68IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%8.2
ATL vs RHP
wRC+41 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Grant Holmes R
xERA4.45 (avg)K%19.2 (avg)HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%8.8 (avg)ERA2.92IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs64BB%13.5
NYM vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%47.0 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM-102-1.5 (+160)O9.5 (+102)ATL-115+1.5 (-180)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM-114-0.5 (+116)O5.5 (+110)ATL-110+0.5 (-152)U5.5 (-144)
Team Totals
OverUnderNYMO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)ATLO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChristian Scott4.5 (-110 / -105)15.5 (+126 / -167)Grant Holmes4.5 (-122 / +111)14.5 (-130 / +105)
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs W4.18263222
W4.18263222Jun 11vs W4.28867144
W4.28867144Jun 5@ W5.29833200
W5.29833200May 30vs W5.09685211
W5.09685211May 24@ L5.29454200
L5.29454200Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ L4.0*4741000
L4.0*4741000Jun 22@ L4.29143511
L4.29143511Jun 16vs L2.05524333
L2.05524333Jun 9@ L3.26724233
L3.26724233Jun 3vs 
W6.08945222
W6.08945222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.03.606.06.03.0(1)
home starts4.34.855.35.02.3(3)
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 2-1 vs ATL this season (3 games).
- NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 4-1 in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Christian Scott's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.6 runs/game in Christian Scott's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 1-2 vs NYM this season (3 games).
- ATL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 1-4 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-3 in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 4.00 (avg)ERA 4.092d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 2.87 (elite)ERA 1.812d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
93°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- ATL — Grant Holmes: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- NYM bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM — Christian Scott: 2026-06-11: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATL — Grant Holmes: 11 days since last start (2026-06-22) — may not be fully stretched out
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
Christian Scott is hot (recent ERA 0.58) but xERA 4.71 (below avg) limits confidence; Grant Holmes is struggling (recent ERA 6.43) but ATL bullpen xERA 2.87 (elite) neutralizes his weakness for full-game; total structure with alt lines (O9.5/U9.0) creates pricing complexity and neither side has sufficient stacked signals.
SFG @ COL✓8:10 PM · Coors FieldHot
SFG @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Webb R
xERA2.37 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)HH%29.0 (elite)Barrel%3.2 (elite)ERA0.78IP/gs7.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs100BB%3.6
COL vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Ryan Feltner R
xERA3.65 (good)K%12.9 (below avg)HH%31.5 (good)Barrel%3.7 (elite)ERA2.70IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%10.0
SFG vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%19.8 (above avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG-155-1.5 (+100)O11.0 (-105)COL+134+1.5 (-118)U11.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG-180-0.5 (-130)O5.5 (-128)COL+142+0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderSFGO5.5 (-130)U5.5 (+110)COLO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Webb——Ryan Feltner3.5 (+115 / -142)15.5 (-102 / -120)
Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs W7.09261200
W7.09261200Jun 21@ L8.010355122
L8.010355122Jun 14vs W8.010677001
W8.010677001Jun 8vs L8.09975011
L8.09975011Jun 3@ W7.09541100
W7.09541100Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ L6.08205012
L6.08205012Jun 22vs W6.09324422
W6.09324422Jun 16@ W4.210476322
W4.210476322Jun 11vs L4.17534366
L4.17534366Jun 5vs L6.08141211
L6.08141211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Webb
IPERAKHBB
vs COL4.71.906.74.31.7(3)
at COL4.52.976.05.02.5(2)
Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.00.002.04.00.0(1)
home starts5.45.033.03.03.0(3)
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 1-2 vs COL this season (3 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 3-2 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 2-3 in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 3.0 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.0 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 2-1 vs SFG this season (3 games).
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 2-3 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-3 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 4.0 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 5.8 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 4.64 (below avg)ERA 5.182d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 5.09 (below avg)ERA 6.082d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- COL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.09 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- COL bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
SFG Team Total o5.5 (-130)
SFG faces Ryan Feltner who has a recent ERA of 5.66 over 3 starts and a 5.03 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. Playing at Coors Field (APF 115 — most hitter-friendly park in baseball). SFG offense wRC+ 121 (above avg). COL bullpen xERA 5.09 (bad) means Giants keep scoring after Feltner exits. Logan Webb dominant on the mound is irrelevant here — this is a pure offensive team total play for SFG scoring at Coors vs a struggling home starter and weak pen.
TBR @ 
HOU8:15 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
TBR @ HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Nick Martinez R
xERA4.29 (avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA3.71IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%5.8
HOU vs RHP
wRC+93 (below avg)K%23.7 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)
S. Arrighetti R
xERA4.18 (avg)K%31.9 (elite)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA10.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs95BB%8.7
TBR vs RHP
wRC+155 (elite)K%16.7 (above avg)HH%41.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-108-1.5 (+155)O8.5 (-104)HOU-108+1.5 (-188)U8.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-110+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (-120)HOU-114-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderTBRO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-145)HOUO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNick Martinez4.5 (+120 / -148)17.5 (+105 / -130)S. Arrighetti5.5 (+102 / -126)16.5 (-102 / -130)
Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs W5.28536011
W5.28536011Jun 21vs W6.08854333
W6.08854333Jun 15@ L5.19665133
L5.19665133Jun 9vs W7.07326033
W7.07326033Jun 3vs L4.05819166
L4.05819166S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ L3.09375588
L3.09375588Jun 20vs L6.09086066
L6.09086066Jun 14@ L6.010178144
L6.010178144Jun 8@ 
W6.09574433
W6.09574433Jun 3vs W4.08336144
W4.08336144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.04.505.010.00.0(1)
at HOU6.04.505.010.00.0(1)
S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR—
home starts5.75.265.34.31.7(3)
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR have won 8 straight.
- TBR are 3-2 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 3.8 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 2.6 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 2-3 in S. Arrighetti's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 4-1 in S. Arrighetti's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 3.4 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.8 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 2.442d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 2.88 (elite)ERA 2.392d stress Stressed (7.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- HOU — S. Arrighetti: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- HOU bullpen stressed (7.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
AI Analysis
Both starters struggling (Martinez recent ERA 6.71, Arrighetti recent ERA 6.19) but TBR bullpen xERA 3.24 and HOU xERA 2.88 are both solid — bullpens likely hold down the second half; TBR wRC+ 155 (elite) is compelling but total of 8.5 already accounts for the offensive upside; no clean over or under edge.
BOS @ LAA✓9:38 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
BOS @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jake Bennett L
xERA1.62 (elite)K%26.6 (good)HH%27.3 (elite)Barrel%4.5 (elite)ERA1.53IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs79BB%3.1
LAA vs LHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%28.4 (poor)HH%31.4 (below avg)
Reid Detmers L
xERA3.32 (good)K%20.0 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA3.38IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%9.3
BOS vs LHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%21.5 (avg)HH%30.0 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-104-1.5 (+160)O8.0 (-105)LAA-110+1.5 (-188)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS+112+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-102)LAA-140-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderBOSO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+105)LAAO3.5 (-128)U3.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Bennett4.5 (-128 / +103)15.5 (+106 / -140)Reid Detmers7.5 (+122 / +100)17.5 (-105 / -120)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs W6.18733211
W6.18733211Jun 22@ L6.07294000
L6.07294000Jun 17vs L5.17953022
L5.17953022Jun 10@ L5.07347144
L5.07347144May 7vs L5.18616244
L5.18616244Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs W5.29984322
W5.29984322Jun 21@ W6.09046455
W6.09046455Jun 16@ W7.09034000
W7.09034000Jun 10vs W7.08991011
W7.08991011Jun 5@ L6.09162200
L6.09162200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts6.71.7810.32.01.0(3)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 1-4 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 0-2 in Jake Bennett's last 2 away starts.
- BOS average 3.0 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 3.5 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 2 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 4-1 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 4-1 in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 4.8 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 4.0 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.63 (good)ERA 5.352d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 3.862d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- BOS bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAA bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- BOS — Jake Bennett: recent opponents high-K: COL 31%, NYY 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- LAA — Reid Detmers: 2026-06-21: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
LAA F5 ML (-140)
Reid Detmers is absolutely dominant right now: recent ERA 0.45 over 3 starts (7.0IP/0ER, 7.0IP/1ER, 6.0IP/0ER), xERA 3.32 (good), 1.78 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. BOS offense wRC+ only 124 vs LHP but Jake Bennett for BOS is STRUGGLING (recent ERA 5.92, avg only 3.3 K/start with K% dropping vs better lineups). Detmers' dominance in the first 5 innings is the primary edge. F5 ML at -140 is at the pricing limit but justified given Detmers' exceptional current form. LAA 4-1 in SP home starts L5.
MIA @ ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
MIA @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tyler Phillips R
xERA6.04 (poor)K%12.5 (below avg)HH%54.4 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA6.23IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88BB%8.3
ATH vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%28.2 (poor)HH%36.7 (avg)
Jack Perkins R
xERA3.62 (good)K%29.7 (elite)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)ERA5.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs81BB%7.8
MIA vs RHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%18.0 (above avg)HH%37.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+110+1.5 (-180)O10.5 (-106)ATH-125-1.5 (+155)U10.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+112+0.5 (-122)O5.5 (-128)ATH-140-0.5 (-106)U5.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderMIAO4.5 (-135)U4.5 (+106)ATHO5.5 (+114)U5.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Phillips4.5 (+122 / -146)15.5 (-112 / -119)Jack Perkins5.5 (+118 / -144)15.5 (+125 / -166)
Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ L7.19716022
L7.19716022Jun 22vs L6.08945322
L6.08945322Jun 16@ L4.07946388
L4.07946388Jun 11vs W5.07052200
W5.07052200Jun 5vs L4.2*8237333
L4.2*8237333Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ L5.08154122
L5.08154122Jun 21vs L5.07884244
L5.07884244Jun 16vs L5.08566233
L5.08566233Jun 10vs W4.08945333
W4.08945333Jun 5@ L4.07565255
L4.07565255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jack Perkins
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA—
home starts4.76.436.05.02.3(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 1-4 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 0-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 3 away starts.
- MIA average 1.8 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 1.3 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 in Jack Perkins's last 3 home starts.
- ATH average 3.8 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 5.3 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 3.122d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
ATH
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 5.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATH — Jack Perkins: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: 2026-06-16: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-31 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATH — Jack Perkins: 2026-06-21: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
MIA @ ATH o10.5 (-106)
Both starters are genuinely struggling right now: Tyler Phillips has xERA 6.04 (poor), recent ERA 8.00 over 3 starts, HH% 54%, Barrel% 14% — extreme hard contact risk. Jack Perkins has recent ERA 7.62, ERA 5.40 vs xERA 3.62 (ERA > xERA gap — bad results are real). MIA offense wRC+ 139 (elite) vs RHP. Hitter-friendly park (APF 108 — flag confirms park boosts offense). Both bullpens are non-factors as primary stoppers. Phillips' 8 ER in 4.0 IP last month is the ceiling for this guy. The total at 10.5 still reflects value given both starters' current trajectories.
MIL @ ARI9:45 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
MIL @ ARIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Harrison L
xERA1.55 (elite)K%30.2 (elite)HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)ERA2.08IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs86BB%1.6
ARI vs LHP
wRC+140 (elite)K%16.3 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)
Jose Cabrera R
xERA3.70 (good)K%17.1 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)Barrel%9.7 (avg)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs71BB%4.9
MIL vs RHP
wRC+126 (above avg)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%43.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-164-1.5 (+102)O8.5 (-120)ARI+139+1.5 (-120)U8.5 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-180-0.5 (-125)O4.5 (-128)ARI+142+0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderMILO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (+105)ARIO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Harrison5.5 (+122 / -145)16.5 (-133 / +100)Jose Cabrera3.5 (-159 / +126)14.5 (-126 / -105)
Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs L5.09293122
L5.09293122Jun 20@ L6.18574022
L6.18574022Jun 14vs W6.08033000
W6.08033000Jun 8@ W2.17148288
W2.17148288Jun 2vs W5.2106124211
W5.2106124211Jose Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ L5.08047244
L5.08047244Jun 21vs L5.06233000
L5.06233000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jose Cabrera
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL—
home starts5.00.003.03.00.0(1)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-1 vs ARI this season (3 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 6.4 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 7.8 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 1-2 vs MIL this season (3 games).
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 0-2 in Jose Cabrera's last 2 starts.
- ARI are 0-1 in Jose Cabrera's last 1 home starts.
- ARI average 2.0 runs/game in Jose Cabrera's last 2 starts.
- ARI average 2.0 runs/game in Jose Cabrera's last 1 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 4.462d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 5.20 (below avg)ERA 5.272d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.20 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ARI — Jose Cabrera: 2026-06-27: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ARI — Jose Cabrera: recent opponents low-K: MIN 15%, TBR 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Kyle Harrison is in acute struggle (recent ERA 6.09 vs xERA 1.55 — 4.5+ run gap above xERA, disqualifying factor), ARI bullpen xERA 5.20 disqualifies full-game ML/spread, and most lines are already priced to reflect MIL's edge — no strong edge found at acceptable odds.
SDP @ LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumNeutral Conditions
SDP @ LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael King R
xERA5.14 (below avg)K%15.5 (below avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA4.02IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%9.9
LAD vs RHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%21.3 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Shohei Ohtani R
xERA3.25 (good)K%23.8 (good)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%3.8 (elite)ERA4.34IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%7.5
SDP vs RHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%22.0 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+210+1.5 (-103)O8.0 (-105)LAD-245-1.5 (-113)U8.0 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+190+1.5 (-154)O4.5 (-102)LAD-245-1.5 (+118)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderSDPO2.5 (-145)U2.5 (+120)LADO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael King4.5 (-132 / +106)15.5 (-102 / -130)Shohei Ohtani6.5 (-128 / +109)17.5 (-190 / +142)
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28vs L4.19053444
L4.19053444Jun 22vs W7.09356000
W7.09356000Jun 16@ L4.19315333
L4.19315333Jun 10vs W6.210637333
W6.210637333Jun 5vs L6.09346044
L6.09346044Shohei Ohtani · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ W6.08985223
W6.08985223Jun 17vs W6.09157144
W6.09157144Jun 10@ L6.210266334
L6.210266334Jun 3@ W6.08962100
W6.08962100May 27vs W6.09970411
W6.09970411SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.53.247.03.53.0(2)
at LAD—
Shohei Ohtani
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP3.01.502.02.51.0(2)
home starts6.32.376.73.72.3(3)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 2-5 vs LAD this season (7 games).
- SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have lost 6 straight.
- SDP are 2-3 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 2.0 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 3.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 5-2 vs SDP this season (7 games).
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Shohei Ohtani's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Shohei Ohtani's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 5.6 runs/game in Shohei Ohtani's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 4.4 runs/game in Shohei Ohtani's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 6.242d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 4.312d stress Stressed (13.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
68°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- SDP bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD bullpen stressed (13.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — Michael King: 2026-06-28: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAD — Shohei Ohtani: recent opponents low-K: TBR 17%, MIN 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Ohtani is hot (recent ERA 1.98) and LAD offense is elite (wRC+ 134) but LAD ML is -245 — way over the -150 pricing limit. Ohtani K prop at 6.5 Ks at -128 is potentially interesting but SDP lineup K% 22% vs RHP is only average and his recent Ks came vs lower-K teams; adjusted expectation ~6.0-6.5 Ks doesn't clearly beat 6.5 at -128.
TOR @ SEA✓10:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
TOR @ SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.81 (elite)K%36.2 (elite)HH%19.4 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.52IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs108BB%18.8
SEA vs RHP
wRC+80 (below avg)K%27.0 (below avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Luis Castillo R
xERA2.96 (elite)K%17.6 (avg)HH%28.8 (elite)Barrel%5.8 (good)ERA4.02IP/gs7.8 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs79BB%4.4
TOR vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-126-1.5 (+145)O7.0 (-115)SEA+110+1.5 (-172)U7.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-148-0.5 (+100)O3.5 (-130)SEA+118+0.5 (-130)U3.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderTORO3.5 (-118)U3.5 (-105)SEAO3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDylan Cease7.5 (-104 / -113)17.5 (-134 / +101)Luis Castillo4.5 (-145 / +116)17.5 (-111 / -119)
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs L4.2107104544
L4.2107104544Jun 22vs W5.211083422
W5.211083422Jun 16@ W5.010874400
W5.010874400Jun 9vs W6.093113111
W6.093113111May 24vs L4.27684122
L4.27684122Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ W6.09144111
W6.09144111Jun 19vs L4.0*6347045
L4.0*6347045Jun 13@ L5.28447225
L5.28447225Jun 7@ L5.210052111
L5.210052111May 31vs W5.0*7132212
W5.0*7132212SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.18.785.04.03.0(1)
at SEA4.18.785.04.03.0(1)
Luis Castillo
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.07.204.08.52.0(2)
home starts—
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 5.4 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-2 in Luis Castillo's last 4 home starts.
- SEA average 5.4 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 3.2 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 3.152d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 5.122d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
68°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 7
- TOR — Dylan Cease: BB% 19% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TOR bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SEA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- TOR — Dylan Cease: 2026-06-27: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SEA — Luis Castillo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-19, 2026-05-31 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
TOR @ SEA u7.0 (-103)
Elite pitching matchup: Dylan Cease xERA 2.81 (elite), recent ERA 1.78 (HOT), averaging 8.7 K/start. Luis Castillo xERA 2.96 (elite), recent ERA 2.60, 7.8 IP/gs workhorse. Both offenses are cold: TOR wRC+ 90 (below avg), SEA wRC+ 80 (below avg). Pitcher-friendly park (APF 91 — flag confirms suppresses offense). SEA bullpen xERA 3.00 (solid). TOR bullpen xERA 3.74 (solid). Cease's last start was 107 pitches (minor concern about early hook), but the bullpen flag says manager likely leaves him in longer due to TOR bullpen being stressed. Note: Cease's bad ERA vs SEA historically (8.78 in 1 start) and bad command (BB% 19%) are risks, but his current form is elite and the park + both cold offenses strongly support the under at just -103.
Dylan Cease Ks o7.5 (-104)
Cease is averaging 8.7 K/start over his last 3 outings (7K, 11K, 8K). K% of 36.2% is exceptional. SEA lineup K% 27.0% vs RHP — above-average strikeout rate, comparable to recent opponents (BOS ~21%, PHI ~22%, PIT ~26%). SEA actually strikes out at a higher rate than most of Cease's recent opponents, which supports the high K line being reachable. Adjusted expectation ~8.5+ Ks. Line of 7.5 at -104 is excellent pricing for a pitcher of this caliber. Outs line at 17.5 (nearly 6 innings) suggests market expects him to pitch deep enough to accumulate. BB% 19% is a concern but elite K% overcomes it. TOR bullpen stressed means manager extends Cease.