AI Picks · 3 Bets · Oct 18
2u Picks
1u Picks
Games In Progress / Completed
TBR -1.5 (+138)
TBR @ CLE · 5:10 PM ET
Rasmussen's 2.85 xERA over his last 3 starts has translated into a 1.06 ERA and 5.7 IP/gs across three career meetings with CLE, including two this season where he allowed just 2 ER over 5.0 IP on Apr 29 and 0 ER over 7.0 IP on Jul 26. Messick's xERA sits at 4.63 over his last 3 with a bloated 15.1% BB% and only 3.9 IP/gs, capped by a 3.0 IP/64-pitch exit in his last outing, and CLE's bullpen is carrying 8.0 IP of stress over the last two days compared to a fresh 3.7 IP Tampa Bay pen. The market gives TBR only a 40% no-vig chance to cover -1.5, which undersells how lopsided this pitching matchup has been historically and underprices the blowout path at +138. The counter is that CLE's offense is averaging a healthy 110 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games and Rasmussen is working on 26 days of rest since his last start, which could shorten his outing and keep the score closer than the matchup implies.
Found at 1:01 PM ET
CLE Team Total u2.5 (+100)
TBR @ CLE · 5:10 PM ET
Rasmussen's 2.85 xERA over his last 3 starts has held CLE to a combined 2 earned runs across his two meetings with them this season (2 ER over 5.0 IP on Apr 29, 0 ER over 7.0 IP on Jul 26), and CLE's offense is only league-average vs right-handers at 110 wRC+ over its last 6 games. A +100 price on CLE staying under 2.5 runs undervalues how thoroughly this specific pitcher has handled this specific lineup. The risk is CLE's last-12 wRC+ vs RHP sits higher at 123, and if Rasmussen is limited by his 26-day layoff and hands the game to a 4.28 xERA Tampa Bay bullpen early, CLE has a path to pick up the extra run.
Found at 1:01 PM ET
Parker Messick o4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
TBR @ CLE · 5:10 PM ET
Messick has struck out 9 (Apr 27) and 6 (Jul 26) in his two meetings with TBR this season, both comfortably clearing this number, and his 30.2% whiff rate over his last 3 starts runs well above his 26.4% K%, suggesting his strikeout total is undervalued relative to the bats he's missing. TBR's K% vs LHP sits at a moderate 22.6% over its last 6 games, enough swing-and-miss margin for him to reach the total. The -125 price still undersells a pitcher who has cleared this number in every recent look at this lineup. The counter is that his last outing lasted just 3.0 IP for 2 Ks on 64 pitches, but his two starts against TBR specifically this year went 5.2 and 7.2 innings, both deep enough for the strikeouts to accumulate.
Found at 1:01 PM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
TBR @ 
CLE✓5:08 PM · Progressive FieldPitcher Friendly
TBR @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA2.85 (elite)ERA1.31 (elite)K%37.3 (elite)Whiff%30.2 (elite)BB%6.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs94
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)BB%8.7 (avg)HH%33.1 (below)
L12
wRC+123 (above)K%18.7 (above)Whiff%19.5 (above)BB%12.2 (elite)HH%37.0 (avg)
Parker Messick L
xERA4.63 (below)ERA3.09 (good)K%26.4 (good)Whiff%30.2 (elite)BB%15.1 (poor)
More Stats
HH%56.7 (poor)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs82
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%23.2 (avg)BB%4.9 (poor)HH%35.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%21.3 (avg)Whiff%20.1 (above)BB%7.3 (below)HH%37.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 4.28 (avg)ERA 3.86 (avg)2d stress Fresh (3.7 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 3.57 (good)ERA 3.56 (good)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-1200-3.5 (-115)O7.5 (-110)CLE+680+3.5 (+111)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-135-0.5 (+118)O3.5 (+110)CLE+108+0.5 (-154)U3.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR3.5 (+108/-130)1.5 (-110/-120)CLE2.5 (-128/+100)1.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDrew Rasmussen5.5 (+112 / -137)17.5 (-145 / +109)Parker Messick4.5 (-125 / +106)15.5 (+126 / -167)
Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '26@ 
W6.2114111311
W6.2114111311Sep 17 '26vs 
W5.07634200
W5.07634200Sep 11 '26vs 
W7.09248011
W7.09248011Sep 5 '26@ 
W7.09773011
W7.09773011Aug 30 '26vs 
W6.09764222
W6.09764222Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ 
L3.06426111
L3.06426111Sep 22 '26@ 
W5.09655111
W5.09655111Sep 16 '26vs 
W6.08687033
W6.08687033Sep 11 '26@ 
W5.19553211
W5.19553211Sep 5 '26vs 
L6.0103127233
L6.0103127233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Drew Rasmussen
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.71.06elite5.73.31.7(3)
at CLE5.53.27good5.55.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26 '26vs W7.08791100
W7.08791100Apr 29 '26@ L5.09166123
L5.09166123Sep 7 '25vs L5.08223300
L5.08223300Aug 27 '25@ L6.08554122
L6.08554122Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.11.47elite6.35.70.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26 '26@ L7.29466011
L7.29466011Apr 27 '26vs L5.29593211
L5.29593211Sep 7 '25@ W6.08648011
W6.08648011home starts6.03.50good8.36.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 16 '26vs W6.08687033
W6.08687033Sep 5 '26vs L6.0103127233
L6.0103127233Aug 30 '26vs W6.010555211
W6.010555211Trends · TBR
- TBR are 7-4 vs CLE this season (11 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.2 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-7 vs TBR this season (11 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Parker Messick's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Parker Messick's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
63°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph SSW
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 11
- CLE — Parker Messick: avg 3.9 IP/gs over his last 3
- TBR bullpen fresh (3.7 IP over 2g)
- CLE bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: 26 days since last start (2026-09-22) news ↗
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: last start: 114 pitches over 6.2 IP news ↗
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: high-K outing 2026-09-22 (11 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: recent opponents high-K: HOU 31%, NYY 27%
- CLE — Parker Messick: 21 days since last start (2026-09-27) news ↗
- CLE — Parker Messick: last start: 64 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- CLE — Parker Messick: low-K outing 2026-09-27 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- CLE — Parker Messick: recent opponents high-K: CHW 35%, BOS 26%
TBR -1.5 (+138)
Rasmussen's 2.85 xERA over his last 3 starts has translated into a 1.06 ERA and 5.7 IP/gs across three career meetings with CLE, including two this season where he allowed just 2 ER over 5.0 IP on Apr 29 and 0 ER over 7.0 IP on Jul 26. Messick's xERA sits at 4.63 over his last 3 with a bloated 15.1% BB% and only 3.9 IP/gs, capped by a 3.0 IP/64-pitch exit in his last outing, and CLE's bullpen is carrying 8.0 IP of stress over the last two days compared to a fresh 3.7 IP Tampa Bay pen. The market gives TBR only a 40% no-vig chance to cover -1.5, which undersells how lopsided this pitching matchup has been historically and underprices the blowout path at +138. The counter is that CLE's offense is averaging a healthy 110 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games and Rasmussen is working on 26 days of rest since his last start, which could shorten his outing and keep the score closer than the matchup implies.
CLE Team Total u2.5 (+100)
Rasmussen's 2.85 xERA over his last 3 starts has held CLE to a combined 2 earned runs across his two meetings with them this season (2 ER over 5.0 IP on Apr 29, 0 ER over 7.0 IP on Jul 26), and CLE's offense is only league-average vs right-handers at 110 wRC+ over its last 6 games. A +100 price on CLE staying under 2.5 runs undervalues how thoroughly this specific pitcher has handled this specific lineup. The risk is CLE's last-12 wRC+ vs RHP sits higher at 123, and if Rasmussen is limited by his 26-day layoff and hands the game to a 4.28 xERA Tampa Bay bullpen early, CLE has a path to pick up the extra run.
Parker Messick o4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Messick has struck out 9 (Apr 27) and 6 (Jul 26) in his two meetings with TBR this season, both comfortably clearing this number, and his 30.2% whiff rate over his last 3 starts runs well above his 26.4% K%, suggesting his strikeout total is undervalued relative to the bats he's missing. TBR's K% vs LHP sits at a moderate 22.6% over its last 6 games, enough swing-and-miss margin for him to reach the total. The -125 price still undersells a pitcher who has cleared this number in every recent look at this lineup. The counter is that his last outing lasted just 3.0 IP for 2 Ks on 64 pitches, but his two starts against TBR specifically this year went 5.2 and 7.2 innings, both deep enough for the strikeouts to accumulate.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.