AI Picks · 15 Bets · Sep 2
J. Misiorowski u7.5 Ks (-105)
MIL @ CHC · 7:41 PM ET
Misiorowski has finished with exactly 6 strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts, and the Cubs are the wrong lineup to break that pattern: 13.2 K% and 17.6 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, down from 17.9 K% over their last 12, the most contact-oriented offense on the board right now. His outs line at 17.5 puts him at six innings, so eight strikeouts means beating his recent per-inning rate against a club that is putting everything in play. He did get 8 in each of his two 2026 meetings with Chicago, but that was before this contact surge and he has not reached 8 in any of his last three outings. A line at 7.5 asks for a career-type night from an arm that has been steady at six.
Found at 8:18 AM ET
KCR ML (-110)
MIA @ KCR · 7:41 PM ET
Kansas City's lineup is at 120 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 133 over their last 12 — established, not a streak — and it faces Eury Perez, who has walked 20.3% of hitters over his last 3 starts and averaged 4.7 IP/gs, exiting after 74 pitches and 3.0 innings his last time out. Miami brings a 51 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 (71 over their last 12) into a matchup with Noah Cameron, who owns a 2.32 xERA and 6.7 IP/gs across his last 3 and has allowed one earned run in his last 20 innings. Perez's xERA of 4.05 says he is better than the walk rate suggests and Miami's bullpen has a 3.23 xERA over its last 12, which keeps this from being a blowout play — but a pick'em price on the side with both the better arm and by far the better lineup is the error, with Kansas City 8-2 at home over their last 10.
Found at 8:18 AM ET
MIN Team Total o4.5 (+118)
DET @ MIN · 7:41 PM ET
Minnesota is at 166 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 13.4 K%, and the 131 over their last 12 confirms it rather than contradicting it — this is the most productive lineup on the slate against right-handed pitching. Drew Anderson has averaged 4.9 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 12.7 BB% and walked 5 in 4.2 innings his last time out, which hands three-plus innings to a Detroit bullpen carrying a 4.77 xERA and 7.13 ERA over its last 12. Anderson's 4.08 xERA over that window is better than his walk rate implies and Minnesota has been held down by good arms recently, but Target Field at 87°F with an APF of 107 and a home average of 6.0 runs in their last three starts behind this rotation slot supports the number. Plus money on five runs from a lineup this hot against a short starter and a leaking bullpen is the mispricing.
Found at 8:18 AM ET
MIA Team Total u4.5 (-125)
MIA @ KCR · 7:41 PM ET
Miami carries a 51 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 71 over their last 12, with a 27.4% hard-hit rate over the last 6 — the weakest contact quality on this card — and they draw Noah Cameron, who has a 2.32 xERA and 0.90 ERA over his last 3 while averaging 6.7 innings per start, including a 9-inning one-hitter on Aug 16 and 6 innings at Toronto on Aug 27. Whatever is left goes to a Kansas City bullpen at 3.60 xERA and 3.24 ERA over its last 12 with just 3.0 relief innings logged in the past two days. Cameron's modest 17.6% K rate over his last 3 means balls get put in play, and 95 degrees with the wind out helps carry, but a lineup hitting like this needs traffic it has not been creating. The market has Miami priced as if their bat side is league-average when their last two weeks against left-handed pitching say otherwise.
Found at 6:22 PM ET
Eury Perez u15.5 Outs (+103)
MIA @ KCR · 7:41 PM ET
Perez has walked batters at a 20.3% clip over his last 3 starts and it is shortening his outings: 5 walks on 100 pitches through 6 innings, 3 walks on 100 pitches through 5, then 4 walks on 74 pitches in just 3 innings on Aug 28, averaging 4.7 innings per start. Kansas City has a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 133 over their last 12 with a 39.0% hard-hit rate over the last 6, exactly the profile that runs a count up, and Miami's bullpen is at normal usage with 7.7 innings over the past two days so there is no need to push him. His 4.05 xERA over the last 3 says he is not being hit hard when he is in the zone, but the walk rate is what ends outings, and the market is pricing this line at his best recent length rather than his median.
Found at 6:22 PM ET
Hayden Wesneski u15.5 Outs (-138)
CHW @ HOU · 8:11 PM ET
Wesneski has not reached 16 outs in any of his last 3 starts — 4.0 innings on 81 pitches, 5.0 on 91, and 5.0 on 91 — averaging 4.7 innings per start, and a 10.3% walk rate over that window is what keeps the pitch count climbing faster than the innings. Reaching this number means a sixth inning he has needed roughly 100-plus pitches to get to. Houston's bullpen is carrying elevated usage at 9.3 relief innings over the past two days, which is the argument for stretching him, but the White Sox at a 34.5% hard-hit rate vs RHP over their last 6 still put pressure on the count, and his 2.43 xERA over the last 3 has come in five-inning packages, not six. The juice buys the shorter number, and the market is paying for the quality of his innings rather than the quantity he has actually delivered.
Found at 6:22 PM ET
Reid Detmers o17.5 Outs (-118)
NYY @ LAA · 9:39 PM ET
Detmers has gone 8.0, 6.0 and 6.0 innings over his last 3 starts on 92, 89 and 86 pitches — every one of them at or past 18 outs, and none of them close to a pitch limit. The 1.4% walk rate over that window is what makes it repeatable: he is not handing out free baserunners, and his 2.28 xERA and 0.45 ERA over the same three starts mean no innings get away from him. The Yankees at 126 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 131 over their last 12 are the best lineup he has seen in that stretch, but he held them to 1 earned run over 7 innings on 99 pitches in April, and the Angels' bullpen at 4.85 ERA over its last 12 is not a group a manager reaches for early. The market has this at a coin flip when his recent workload has cleared it every time out.
Found at 6:22 PM ET
Y. Yamamoto o6.5 Ks (-130)
STL @ LAD · 10:11 PM ET
Yamamoto has struck out 9, 9 and 8 over his last 3 starts, working 6.0, 6.1 and 6.1 innings on 97, 107 and 105 pitches, and his 35.1% K rate with a 33.1% whiff rate over that window is the bat-missing engine behind it. St. Louis strikes out 22.1% of the time vs RHP over their last 6 and 24.0% over their last 12, so the contact profile in front of him does not blunt the rate, and his posted outs line of 18.5 gives him the six-plus innings the number needs. The stressed Dodgers bullpen (6.0 relief innings in one game over the past two days) argues for him being left in rather than lifted early. The market is pricing this near his floor rather than the eight-strikeout output his last three starts have actually produced against comparable contact.
Found at 6:22 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Casey Mize u4.5 Ks (-111)
SDP @ CIN · 12:41 PM ET
Mize has struck out 3, 0 and 1 across his last 3 starts, an average of 1.3 per outing behind a 6.8 K% and a 9.3 Whiff% over that same window — bat-missing is essentially absent from his profile right now. He is averaging 4.6 IP per start over his last 3 and the posted outs line of 15.5 says the market expects roughly five innings, so reaching five strikeouts would require him to more than triple his current rate in about nineteen batters. Cincinnati's 23.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is the one thing pointing the other way, and it is nowhere near enough to bridge a gap that size. The market is pricing this line as a coin flip when Mize's realistic outcome is two or three strikeouts.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
Grant Holmes u4.5 Ks (-156)
ATL @ WSN · 1:06 PM ET
Holmes has struck out exactly 3 in each of his last 3 starts, a 13.9 K% over that window with a 3.1 K-BB%, and he is averaging 4.9 innings per outing with the posted outs line at 15.5 — five strikeouts asks for close to a strikeout an inning from an arm getting three every time out. Washington's 20.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is ordinary rather than a soft spot, and his 28.2 Whiff% over his last 3 running well above his K% is the real argument against, as is the 10-strikeout game he had against this club in May of this season; his most recent meeting with them, 34 days ago, produced 4 strikeouts over 4.2 innings, which is the more current read. Laying this price buys a number his last three outings have not come within two strikeouts of, and the market has it priced as though five is a normal night for him.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
Cody Bradford u5.5 Ks (+118)
ATH @ TEX · 2:36 PM ET
Bradford has struck out 4, 3 and 0 over his last 3 starts, a 2.3 per-start average off a 10.3 K% in that window, and his outs line of 17.5 points to five and a half or six innings — six strikeouts would demand better than a strikeout per inning from an arm getting fewer than half that. Oakland's 28.2 K% vs LHP over their last 6 (30.2 over their last 12) is the genuine argument for the over, and his 18.7 Whiff% over his last 3 running well ahead of his K% says some strikeouts are coming, but even doubling his recent rate leaves him a strikeout or two short of this number. He got 4 against this same Oakland lineup on Aug 16 this season over 4.0 innings. A plus price on the under of a number two full strikeouts above his expectation is the mispricing.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
Tomoyuki Sugano u15.5 Outs (-137)
BAL @ COL · 3:11 PM ET
Sugano has gone 5.0, 3.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 9 and 12 outs, every one of them under this number — while allowing 7, 9 and 10 hits and 6, 5 and 6 earned runs, a 12.75 ERA behind a 6.41 xERA across that window. At 4.0 IP per start he needs his longest outing in a month plus one extra out, and he is doing it at Coors with a 45.3 HH% allowed over his last 3. Baltimore's bat is the counter — 69 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, 85 over their last 12 — but a slumping lineup still runs up pitch counts against an arm surrendering nine hits per four innings, and Colorado's pen has already been extended for 8.3 innings over the last two days without buying him extra rope. Paying juice buys the shorter, safer number here; the market has him at barely better than a coin flip to do something he has not done in three tries.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
ARI Team Total u4.5 (-115)
PHI @ ARI · 3:41 PM ET
Arizona faces Andrew Painter's 2.94 xERA over his last 3 starts — he has worked 6.0 innings per start with a 28.6 Whiff% in that window — and then a Philadelphia bullpen carrying a 2.96 xERA and a 1.77 ERA over its last 12 games at normal rest. The Diamondbacks have scored 3.0 runs per game at home over their recent stretch and 2.6 across their last five starts from this rotation spot. Their 107 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, up from 92 over their last 12, is the case against, but that is a six-game heater against a lineup number, not a level, and their 20.4 K% over the same six games runs above what a 17.7 Whiff% supports. With a 9.5 total inflating both sides of this game, pricing Arizona at an even shot to reach five runs against this arm and this bullpen is too generous.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
Andrew Painter o15.5 Outs (+104)
PHI @ ARI · 3:41 PM ET
Painter has gone 5.0, 7.0 and 6.0 innings in his last 3 starts on 94, 103 and 94 pitches, averaging 6.0 IP/gs, so 16 outs is below his established workload. His 2.94 xERA over that window sits well under his 4.50 ERA, and he draws an Arizona lineup at a 95 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 that has produced 84 over their last 12 and 3.0 runs per game at home. Philadelphia's bullpen has a 2.59 xERA over its last 12 and could be summoned early in a close game, which is the argument for the under, but its stress is normal and nothing in his recent pitch counts suggests a short leash. The market has him failing to finish the sixth more than half the time despite three straight outings at or beyond that mark.
Found at 1:33 PM ET
Patrick Sandoval o5.5 Ks (+108)
SEA @ BOS · 4:11 PM ET
Seattle carries a 31.1 K% and a 32.3 Whiff% vs LHP over their last 6, backed by 28.6 and 28.3 over their last 12 — established, not a blip — and Sandoval has posted a 26.8 K% with a 25.6 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, producing 6, 6 and 7 strikeouts, all of them clearing this number. His outs line of 15.5 is short and his 12.7 BB% over his last 3 is why, so the length is the risk, but he got 7 in 5.1 innings at New York on Aug 28 and 6 in 5.2 on Aug 22, and against a lineup missing this many bats he does not need six innings to reach six punchouts. A plus price on a number he has hit in three straight, against the highest-strikeout lineup on the board, is more than the 46% the market is assigning it.
Found at 4:35 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
SDP @ 
CIN✓12:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHot
SDP @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Casey Mize R
xERA3.71 (good)ERA3.95 (avg)K%6.8 (poor)Whiff%9.3 (poor)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs70BB%5.1 (good)
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+139 (elite)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
B. Williamson L
xERA5.17 (below)ERA7.11 (poor)K%14.8 (below)Whiff%22.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.0 (below)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs77BB%18.0 (poor)
SDP vs LHP
L6
wRC+91 (below)K%19.7 (above)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%41.3 (above)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (below)HH%39.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 2.36 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 4.73 (below)ERA 5.89 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-104-1.5 (+158)O14.5 (+102)CIN+100-1.5 (+182)U14.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-130-0.5 (-102)O5.5 (+100)CIN+114+0.5 (-128)U5.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP5.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (-105/-125)CIN4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize4.5 (-110 / -111)15.5 (+104 / -120)B. Williamson3.5 (+109 / -138)13.5 (-104 / -128)
Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ L4.08545144
L4.08545144Aug 28 '26@ 
L5.07716127
L5.07716127Aug 22 '26vs 
W2.24704144
W2.24704144Aug 16 '26@ 
W6.08633100
W6.08633100Aug 10 '26vs 
W6.08365222
W6.08365222B. Williamson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs W5.18757233
W5.18757233Apr 29 '26vs 
L3.05844444
L3.05844444Apr 22 '26@ L4.18737355
L4.18737355Apr 17 '26@ W5.19323411
W5.19323411Apr 11 '26vs 
W4.09333633
W4.09333633SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.09.00poor4.05.01.0(1)
at CIN4.09.00poor4.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ L4.08545144
L4.08545144B. Williamson
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP5.15.29poor5.07.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs W5.18757233
W5.18757233home starts4.07.44poor4.04.74.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs W5.18757233
W5.18757233Apr 29 '26vs L3.05844444
L3.05844444Apr 11 '26vs W4.09333633
W4.09333633Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-3 vs CIN this season (6 games).
- SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 3-2 in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 in Casey Mize's last 3 away starts.
- SDP average 4.6 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.3 runs/game in Casey Mize's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 2-3 to the over in Casey Mize's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Casey Mize's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-3 vs SDP this season (6 games).
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 in B. Williamson's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-2 in B. Williamson's last 3 home starts.
- CIN average 2.8 runs/game in B. Williamson's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.0 runs/game in B. Williamson's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hot
90°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph SW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- SDP — Casey Mize: last start: 77 pitches over 5.0 IP
- SDP — Casey Mize: 2026-08-22: 4 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
- SDP — Casey Mize: recent opponents low-K: MIN 13%, TBR 14%
- CIN — B. Williamson: 126 days since last start (2026-04-29) news ↗
- CIN — B. Williamson: last start: 58 pitches over 3.0 IP
Casey Mize u4.5 Ks (-111)
Mize has struck out 3, 0 and 1 across his last 3 starts, an average of 1.3 per outing behind a 6.8 K% and a 9.3 Whiff% over that same window — bat-missing is essentially absent from his profile right now. He is averaging 4.6 IP per start over his last 3 and the posted outs line of 15.5 says the market expects roughly five innings, so reaching five strikeouts would require him to more than triple his current rate in about nineteen batters. Cincinnati's 23.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is the one thing pointing the other way, and it is nowhere near enough to bridge a gap that size. The market is pricing this line as a coin flip when Mize's realistic outcome is two or three strikeouts.
ATL @ 
WSN✓1:05 PM · Nationals ParkRainy
ATL @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Grant Holmes R
xERA4.13 (avg)ERA5.52 (poor)K%13.9 (below)Whiff%28.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%51.0 (poor)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs68BB%10.8 (below)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+134 (elite)K%20.7 (avg)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%33.1 (below)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%31.6 (below)
Brad Lord RBULLPEN GAME
No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers
xERA2.45 (elite)ERA1.23 (elite)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%14.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%5.9 (elite)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs42BB%10.7 (below)
ATL all hands
L6
wRC+99 (avg)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%24.9 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.03 (good)ERA 2.35 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 4.10 (avg)ERA 6.45 (poor)2d stress Stressed (11.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-138-1.5 (+126)O7.5 (+105)WSN+112+1.5 (-160)U7.5 (-121)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-140-0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-146)WSN+112+0.5 (-128)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL4.5 (-132/+110)2.5 (-105/-125)WSN3.5 (-135/+106)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGrant Holmes4.5 (+130 / -156)15.5 (+103 / -122)Brad Lord——
Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ W3.02610000
W3.02610000Aug 28 '26vs W5.08438133
W5.08438133Aug 20 '26@ 
W6.09431300
W6.09431300Aug 15 '26vs 
L3.26536366
L3.26536366Aug 9 '26@ 
W6.07723200
W6.07723200Brad Lord · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L3.15562100
L3.15562100Aug 29 '26vs 
W2.1*2742111
W2.1*2742111Aug 25 '26vs L2.1*4420100
L2.1*4420100Aug 21 '26@ L2.23110100
L2.23110100Aug 15 '26@ 
L0.24411422
L0.24411422SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.13.69good5.03.71.3(3)
at WSN3.00.00elite1.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ W3.02610000
W3.02610000Jul 30 '26vs W4.26945233
W4.26945233May 23 '26vs L5.087106222
L5.087106222Brad Lord
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.10.00elite6.02.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L3.15562100
L3.15562100home starts3.10.00elite6.02.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L3.15562100
L3.15562100Trends · ATL
- ATL are 9-4 vs WSN this season (13 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 3.4 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 2.8 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-2 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 3 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 4-9 vs ATL this season (13 games).
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-2 in Brad Lord's last 4 starts.
- WSN are 1-0 in Brad Lord's last 1 home starts.
- WSN average 5.8 runs/game in Brad Lord's last 4 starts.
- WSN average 7.0 runs/game in Brad Lord's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Rainy
88°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph NE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (1%)
Flags · 13
- BULLPEN GAME: WSN have no conventional starter — Brad Lord is listed (last 5 outings avg 2.1 IP (longest 2.7)). Expect a parade of relievers; ATL's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
- WSN — Brad Lord: small sample: 7.1 IP over 3 starts
- ATL — Grant Holmes: Whiff% 28.2 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 13.9 shows
- WSN — Brad Lord: K% 25.0 (last 3 starts) runs well above what Whiff% 14.8 supports
- WSN bullpen stressed (11.0 IP over 2g)
- ATL — Grant Holmes: 2026-08-15: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.70 ERA equivalent
- WSN — Brad Lord: 12 days since last start (2026-08-21) news ↗
- WSN — Brad Lord: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-29, 2026-08-25
- WSN — Brad Lord: last start: 31 pitches over 2.2 IP
- WSN — Brad Lord: 2026-08-15: 2 ER in 0.2 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.05 ERA equivalent
- WSN — Brad Lord: recent opponents high-K: NYM 27%, MIA 26%
- WEATHER: rain risk 1% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
Grant Holmes u4.5 Ks (-156)
Holmes has struck out exactly 3 in each of his last 3 starts, a 13.9 K% over that window with a 3.1 K-BB%, and he is averaging 4.9 innings per outing with the posted outs line at 15.5 — five strikeouts asks for close to a strikeout an inning from an arm getting three every time out. Washington's 20.4 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is ordinary rather than a soft spot, and his 28.2 Whiff% over his last 3 running well above his K% is the real argument against, as is the 10-strikeout game he had against this club in May of this season; his most recent meeting with them, 34 days ago, produced 4 strikeouts over 4.2 innings, which is the more current read. Laying this price buys a number his last three outings have not come within two strikeouts of, and the market has it priced as though five is a normal night for him.
ATH @ 
TEX✓2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Retractable)
ATH @ TEX✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jacob Lopez L
xERA3.15 (good)ERA2.12 (elite)K%30.4 (elite)Whiff%30.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs98BB%8.7 (avg)
TEX vs LHP
L6
wRC+157 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%26.0 (below)HH%42.6 (above)
L12
wRC+150 (elite)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%46.0 (elite)
Cody Bradford L
xERA4.63 (below)ERA4.20 (avg)K%10.3 (poor)Whiff%18.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.9 (avg)Barrel%12.1 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs89BB%4.4 (elite)
ATH vs LHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+88 (below)K%27.1 (below)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 2.94 (elite)ERA 3.73 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 5.18 (below)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+137+1.5 (-156)O7.5 (-117)TEX-162-1.5 (+130)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+130+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (+106)TEX-152-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH3.5 (+100/-122)1.5 (-115/-115)TEX4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJacob Lopez5.5 (+105 / -130)16.5 (+102 / -121)Cody Bradford4.5 (+125 / -148)17.5 (+101 / -134)
Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ W6.010276222
W6.010276222Aug 28 '26vs 
L5.010063312
L5.010063312Aug 22 '26@ 
W6.09193111
W6.09193111Aug 16 '26vs W6.09365222
W6.09365222Aug 10 '26vs L7.09355122
L7.09355122Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L4.08637155
L4.08637155Aug 28 '26@ L5.210009233
L5.210009233Aug 22 '26vs L5.18037022
L5.18037022Aug 16 '26@ L4.08148122
L4.08148122Aug 11 '26@ L7.07515133
L7.07515133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.03.00good6.55.52.0(2)
at TEX5.55.73poor6.55.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ W6.010276222
W6.010276222Aug 16 '26vs W6.09365222
W6.09365222Jul 21 '25@ L5.09364355
L5.09364355Cody Bradford
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH4.07.88poor3.57.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L4.08637155
L4.08637155Aug 16 '26@ L4.08148122
L4.08148122home starts4.44.77below3.76.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L4.08637155
L4.08637155Aug 22 '26vs L5.18037022
L5.18037022Aug 5 '26vs 
W4.17055200
W4.17055200Trends · ATH
- ATH are 7-6 vs TEX this season (13 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 5 straight.
- ATH are 2-3 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 3-2 in Jacob Lopez's last 5 away starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.6 runs/game in Jacob Lopez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in Jacob Lopez's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in Jacob Lopez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 6-7 vs ATH this season (13 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 1-4 in Cody Bradford's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-1 in Cody Bradford's last 2 home starts.
- TEX average 2.2 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.0 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 0-5 to the over in Cody Bradford's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 0-2 to the over in Cody Bradford's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Retractable
Flags · 4
- TEX — Cody Bradford: Whiff% 18.7 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.3 shows
- ATH bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g)
- WEATHER: wind blowing IN 7 mph from the NE (retractable roof — conditions apply only if open)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
Cody Bradford u5.5 Ks (+118)
Bradford has struck out 4, 3 and 0 over his last 3 starts, a 2.3 per-start average off a 10.3 K% in that window, and his outs line of 17.5 points to five and a half or six innings — six strikeouts would demand better than a strikeout per inning from an arm getting fewer than half that. Oakland's 28.2 K% vs LHP over their last 6 (30.2 over their last 12) is the genuine argument for the over, and his 18.7 Whiff% over his last 3 running well ahead of his K% says some strikeouts are coming, but even doubling his recent rate leaves him a strikeout or two short of this number. He got 4 against this same Oakland lineup on Aug 16 this season over 4.0 innings. A plus price on the under of a number two full strikeouts above his expectation is the mispricing.
BAL @ COL✓3:10 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
BAL @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Trevor Rogers L
xERA3.32 (good)ERA5.50 (poor)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.5 (good)Barrel%7.4 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs94BB%4.0 (elite)
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+76 (poor)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%39.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA6.41 (poor)ERA12.75 (poor)K%13.6 (below)Whiff%16.0 (below)
More Stats
HH%45.3 (poor)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs8.7PC/gs91BB%4.5 (elite)
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+40 (poor)K%28.1 (poor)Whiff%27.8 (below)HH%36.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+79 (poor)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%39.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.65 (elite)ERA 1.13 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
COL
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 3.78 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-162-1.5 (-106)O11.5 (+100)COL+138+1.5 (-110)U11.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-152-0.5 (-115)O5.5 (-135)COL+122+0.5 (-113)U5.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL6.5 (+104/-130)2.5 (-154/+120)COL4.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers5.5 (+115 / -130)17.5 (-132 / +104)Tomoyuki Sugano3.5 (-102 / -113)15.5 (+120 / -141)
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ W6.294116022
W6.294116022Aug 27 '26@ 
L5.08677166
L5.08677166Aug 21 '26vs W7.010366133
W7.010366133Aug 16 '26@ W6.09867122
W6.09867122Aug 10 '26@ L4.07944222
L4.07944222Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L6.09046133
L6.09046133Aug 28 '26@ L4.091410166
L4.091410166Aug 23 '26vs L3.09229155
L3.09229155Aug 17 '26vs 
L5.08937167
L5.08937167Aug 11 '26@ W6.09356022
W6.09356022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs COL6.61.36elite8.03.50.5(2)
at COL6.22.90elite11.06.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ W6.294116022
W6.294116022Jul 26 '25vs W7.09651100
W7.09651100Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL6.04.50below4.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L6.09046133
L6.09046133home starts4.79.00poor3.07.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L6.09046133
L6.09046133Aug 23 '26vs L3.09229155
L3.09229155Aug 17 '26vs L5.08937167
L5.08937167Trends · BAL
- BAL are 1-1 vs COL this season (2 games).
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 6.0 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 6.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 4-1 to the over in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-0 to the over in Trevor Rogers's last 3 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 1-1 vs BAL this season (2 games).
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 1-9 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 1-4 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-3 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 2.8 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.0 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 2-3 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph E
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- COL bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
- BAL — Trevor Rogers: 2026-08-27: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.43 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115)
Tomoyuki Sugano u15.5 Outs (-137)
Sugano has gone 5.0, 3.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 9 and 12 outs, every one of them under this number — while allowing 7, 9 and 10 hits and 6, 5 and 6 earned runs, a 12.75 ERA behind a 6.41 xERA across that window. At 4.0 IP per start he needs his longest outing in a month plus one extra out, and he is doing it at Coors with a 45.3 HH% allowed over his last 3. Baltimore's bat is the counter — 69 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, 85 over their last 12 — but a slumping lineup still runs up pitch counts against an arm surrendering nine hits per four innings, and Colorado's pen has already been extended for 8.3 innings over the last two days without buying him extra rope. Paying juice buys the shorter, safer number here; the market has him at barely better than a coin flip to do something he has not done in three tries.
PHI @ ARI✓3:40 PM · Chase Field (Retractable)
PHI @ ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Andrew Painter R
xERA2.94 (elite)ERA4.50 (below)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%40.8 (below)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%8.3 (avg)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%18.0 (above)HH%29.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%16.8 (elite)HH%31.1 (below)
Jose Cabrera RBULK
Opener: Taylor Clarke (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA5.54 (poor)ERA6.75 (poor)K%15.5 (below)Whiff%12.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs56BB%10.3 (below)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+94 (below)K%17.3 (above)Whiff%16.9 (elite)HH%31.5 (below)
L12
wRC+99 (avg)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%19.7 (above)HH%32.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 2.59 (elite)ERA 1.85 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 4.84 (below)ERA 4.09 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-130-1.5 (+128)O8.5 (-115)ARI+112+1.5 (-145)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-128-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-118)ARI+110+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (+100/-115)2.5 (+105/-135)ARI3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Painter4.5 (+122 / +126)15.5 (+104 / -134)Jose Cabrera——
Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ L7.09362000
L7.09362000Aug 28 '26@ W6.09462333
W6.09462333Aug 22 '26vs W7.010385011
W7.010385011Aug 16 '26@ W5.09426355
W5.09426355Aug 10 '26@ W5.19362322
W5.19362322Jose Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs W2.0*2411000
W2.0*2411000Aug 27 '26@ L4.17043122
L4.17043122Jul 8 '26@ L4.17424244
L4.17424244Jul 3 '26vs L3.16336333
L3.16336333Jun 27 '26@ L5.08047244
L5.08047244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Painter
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI7.00.00elite6.02.00.0(1)
at ARI7.00.00elite6.02.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ L7.09362000
L7.09362000Jose Cabrera
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts4.03.33good3.04.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3 '26vs L3.16336333
L3.16336333Jun 21 '26vs L5.06233000
L5.06233000Trends · PHI
- PHI are 3-3 vs ARI this season (6 games).
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI have won 6 straight.
- PHI are 4-1 in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Andrew Painter's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 6.8 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.6 runs/game in Andrew Painter's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 to the over in Andrew Painter's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-0 to the over in Andrew Painter's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 3-3 vs PHI this season (6 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 0-5 in Jose Cabrera's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 0-2 in Jose Cabrera's last 2 home starts.
- ARI average 2.6 runs/game in Jose Cabrera's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 3.0 runs/game in Jose Cabrera's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Retractable
Flags · 6
- OPENER: ARI start Taylor Clarke (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.1 IP (longest 1.7)), with Jose Cabrera (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — PHI's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- PHI — Andrew Painter: Whiff% 28.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 22.2 shows
- PHI — Andrew Painter: 2026-08-16: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.89 ERA equivalent
- PHI — Andrew Painter: low-K outing 2026-08-16 (2 Ks vs avg 5.3 over his last 3)
- ARI — Jose Cabrera: last start: 70 pitches over 4.1 IP
- WEATHER: wind blowing ACROSS the field 6 mph from the SW (retractable roof — conditions apply only if open)
ARI Team Total u4.5 (-115)
Arizona faces Andrew Painter's 2.94 xERA over his last 3 starts — he has worked 6.0 innings per start with a 28.6 Whiff% in that window — and then a Philadelphia bullpen carrying a 2.96 xERA and a 1.77 ERA over its last 12 games at normal rest. The Diamondbacks have scored 3.0 runs per game at home over their recent stretch and 2.6 across their last five starts from this rotation spot. Their 107 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6, up from 92 over their last 12, is the case against, but that is a six-game heater against a lineup number, not a level, and their 20.4 K% over the same six games runs above what a 17.7 Whiff% supports. With a 9.5 total inflating both sides of this game, pricing Arizona at an even shot to reach five runs against this arm and this bullpen is too generous.
Andrew Painter o15.5 Outs (+104)
Painter has gone 5.0, 7.0 and 6.0 innings in his last 3 starts on 94, 103 and 94 pitches, averaging 6.0 IP/gs, so 16 outs is below his established workload. His 2.94 xERA over that window sits well under his 4.50 ERA, and he draws an Arizona lineup at a 95 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 that has produced 84 over their last 12 and 3.0 runs per game at home. Philadelphia's bullpen has a 2.59 xERA over its last 12 and could be summoned early in a close game, which is the argument for the under, but its stress is normal and nothing in his recent pitch counts suggests a short leash. The market has him failing to finish the sixth more than half the time despite three straight outings at or beyond that mark.
SEA @ 
BOS✓4:10 PM · Fenway Park
SEA @ BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bryce Miller R
xERA4.99 (below)ERA9.60 (poor)K%18.6 (avg)Whiff%22.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below)Barrel%10.6 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs87BB%14.3 (poor)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (avg)HH%36.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%33.6 (below)
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA5.28 (poor)ERA6.00 (poor)K%26.8 (good)Whiff%25.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.9 (below)Barrel%14.0 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs90BB%12.7 (below)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+59 (poor)K%31.2 (poor)Whiff%30.5 (poor)HH%36.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+81 (below)K%28.4 (poor)Whiff%27.8 (below)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.70 (below)ERA 6.70 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 4.93 (below)2d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+119+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-105)BOS-138-1.5 (+150)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+106+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-110)BOS-130-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)BOS4.5 (+112/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Miller4.5 (+110 / -130)15.5 (-108 / -121)Patrick Sandoval5.5 (+124 / -138)16.5 (+101 / +110)
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ W4.26537111
W4.26537111Aug 23 '26vs 
L4.110452766
L4.110452766Aug 18 '26@ L4.29237256
L4.29237256Aug 12 '26@ L6.08958155
L6.08958155Aug 6 '26vs 
L5.09355244
L5.09355244Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L4.08025334
L4.08025334Aug 28 '26@ L5.19673411
L5.19673411Aug 22 '26vs W5.29365222
W5.29365222Aug 16 '26@ 
L4.08969377
L4.08969377Aug 11 '26@ 
L6.08448324
L6.08448324SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryce Miller
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS4.54.03avg4.75.01.7(3)
at BOS4.25.36poor3.56.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ W4.26537111
W4.26537111Jun 19 '26vs L5.06673011
L5.06673011Apr 22 '25@ L4.210045444
L4.210045444Patrick Sandoval
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.06.75poor2.05.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L4.08025334
L4.08025334home starts4.74.44avg4.35.33.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs L4.08025334
L4.08025334Aug 22 '26vs W5.29365222
W5.29365222Aug 4 '26vs W5.08956422
W5.08956422Trends · SEA
- SEA are 2-3 vs BOS this season (5 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 0-5 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 0-5 in Bryce Miller's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 2.0 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 2.8 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 5-0 to the over in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 3-0 to the over in Bryce Miller's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-2 vs SEA this season (5 games).
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 2-3 in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 4-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 4 home starts.
- BOS average 4.6 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 7.5 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 3-2 to the over in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-1 to the over in Patrick Sandoval's last 3 home starts.
Weather
69°F, Wind 10 mph ENE
Flags · 4
- BOS bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g)
- SEA — Bryce Miller: last start: 104 pitches over 4.1 IP
- BOS — Patrick Sandoval: 2026-08-16: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.61 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: wind blowing IN 10 mph from the ENE
Patrick Sandoval o5.5 Ks (+108)
Seattle carries a 31.1 K% and a 32.3 Whiff% vs LHP over their last 6, backed by 28.6 and 28.3 over their last 12 — established, not a blip — and Sandoval has posted a 26.8 K% with a 25.6 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, producing 6, 6 and 7 strikeouts, all of them clearing this number. His outs line of 15.5 is short and his 12.7 BB% over his last 3 is why, so the length is the risk, but he got 7 in 5.1 innings at New York on Aug 28 and 6 in 5.2 on Aug 22, and against a lineup missing this many bats he does not need six innings to reach six punchouts. A plus price on a number he has hit in three straight, against the highest-strikeout lineup on the board, is more than the 46% the market is assigning it.
TOR @ CLE6:40 PM · Progressive Field
TOR @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.13 (elite)ERA1.89 (elite)K%36.1 (elite)Whiff%28.7 (elite)
More Stats
HH%27.0 (elite)Barrel%8.1 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs102BB%12.5 (below)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+121 (above)K%19.6 (above)Whiff%14.8 (elite)HH%32.0 (below)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%15.1 (elite)HH%37.5 (avg)
Joey Cantillo L
xERA3.41 (good)ERA2.16 (elite)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%28.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs89BB%20.9 (poor)
TOR vs LHP
L6
wRC+116 (above)K%12.3 (elite)Whiff%16.7 (elite)HH%32.6 (below)
L12
wRC+126 (above)K%18.5 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%34.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.38 (good)ERA 4.17 (avg)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.13 (elite)ERA 2.06 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-130-1.5 (+140)O7.5 (+100)CLE+112+1.5 (-163)U7.0 (+103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-150-0.5 (+100)O3.5 (-130)CLE+130+0.5 (-130)U3.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-154/+120)CLE3.5 (+110/-140)1.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDylan Cease6.5 (+102 / -120)17.5 (-146 / +115)Joey Cantillo4.5 (-113 / -110)15.5 (+129 / -162)
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs W6.09284111
W6.09284111Aug 22 '26@ W6.211182511
W6.211182511Aug 16 '26vs L6.1104102322
L6.1104102322Aug 11 '26vs W5.010475433
W5.010475433Aug 6 '26@ L7.0104102100
L7.0104102100Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@ W6.09212723
W6.09212723Aug 21 '26@ W4.28954411
W4.28954411Aug 15 '26vs W6.08771311
W6.08771311Aug 9 '26@ L1.03133011
L1.03133011Aug 4 '26vs L5.08157225
L5.08157225SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.11.48elite7.04.01.0(1)
at CLE—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 2 '25vs W6.19274111
W6.19274111Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.01.80elite4.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 25 '26@ L5.08946113
L5.08946113home starts5.33.94avg6.35.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26vs W6.08771311
W6.08771311Aug 4 '26vs L5.08157225
L5.08157225Jul 19 '26vs L5.08077344
L5.08077344Trends · TOR
- TOR are 2-2 vs CLE this season (4 games).
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 4-1 in Dylan Cease's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 4.4 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 4.8 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 4-1 to the over in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-0 to the over in Dylan Cease's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-2 vs TOR this season (4 games).
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 4.8 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.8 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 0-5 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 3 home starts.
Weather
86°F, Wind 7 mph WNW
Flags · 4
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: Whiff% 28.1 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 19.4 shows
- TOR bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
- CLE bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- WEATHER: wind blowing ACROSS the field 7 mph from the WNW
AI Analysis
The total is already down at 7.5/7.0 with two effective starters and Cleveland's bullpen at a 2.13 xERA over its last 12 and fresh, so there is nothing left to buy on the under, and Toronto at -130 is a fair price for Cease against a Cleveland lineup at 121 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6. Cease's 6.5 strikeout line looks tempting off 10, 8 and 8 in his last 3, but Cleveland whiffs on only 14.8% of swings over their last 6 and 15.1% over their last 12 — the most contact-oriented lineup on the slate — and his 17.5 outs line matches the 6.1, 6.2 and 6.0 innings he has actually thrown. Cantillo's 4.5 strikeout number sits right on his erratic 7, 5 and 1 output, and his outs line is unbettable both ways with a 20.9% walk rate over his last 3 pulling against the 6-inning outings he managed in two of three.
NYM @ TBR6:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
NYM @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Justin Hagenman R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%14.5 (elite)Whiff%17.8 (elite)HH%33.9 (below)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%32.7 (below)
Griffin Jax R
xERA1.55 (elite)ERA1.62 (elite)K%34.3 (elite)Whiff%30.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%6.0 (good)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+55 (poor)K%27.1 (below)Whiff%28.0 (poor)HH%35.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 3.64 (good)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 2.66 (elite)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+153+1.5 (-143)O8.0 (-110)TBR-178-1.5 (+125)U8.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+140+0.5 (-113)O4.5 (-113)TBR-168-0.5 (-115)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (+100/-128)1.5 (-120/-110)TBR4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJustin Hagenman2.5 (-166 / +130)13.5 (-114 / -116)Griffin Jax4.5 (-106 / -110)11.5 (-126 / -105)
Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2 '26vs L5.08284013
L5.08284013Jul 28 '26vs L5.293105312
L5.293105312Jul 22 '26@ W6.08353111
W6.08353111Jul 17 '26@ L5.08568177
L5.08568177Jul 11 '26vs W5.06934311
W5.06934311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM—
home starts5.11.78elite7.04.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2 '26vs L5.08284013
L5.08284013Jul 28 '26vs L5.293105312
L5.293105312Jul 11 '26vs W5.06934311
W5.06934311Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-1 vs TBR this season (2 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 1-1 vs NYM this season (2 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-3 in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 2.4 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 2.8 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 1-3 to the over in Griffin Jax's last 4 starts.
- TBR are 1-1 to the over in Griffin Jax's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 2
- NYM — Justin Hagenman: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- TBR — Griffin Jax: 31 days since last start (2026-08-02) news ↗
AI Analysis
Justin Hagenman is making his first start of the season with no track record to price against, which rules out his strikeout and outs numbers entirely and makes any side or total in this game a guess about half the run environment. Griffin Jax has not pitched in 31 days, and his 11.5 outs line shows the market expects a short, managed return outing — that same cap kills the 4.5 strikeout over despite his 34.3% K rate over his last 3 and the Mets' elevated 27.1% K rate vs RHP over their last 6, and it leaves the outs market a pure guess about how long Tampa lets him work. The total at 8.0 with one unknown starter and one on an unknown leash has no defensible number behind it.
SFG @ PIT6:40 PM · PNC Park
SFG @ PITMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Landen Roupp R
xERA5.58 (poor)ERA4.50 (below)K%13.7 (below)Whiff%20.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%11.3 (below)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%12.3 (below)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+106 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
Bubba Chandler R
xERA3.60 (good)ERA4.30 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%15.6 (below)
More Stats
HH%47.5 (poor)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%9.8 (avg)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%37.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+143 (elite)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 4.09 (avg)2d stress Elevated (10.7 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 2.82 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+129+1.5 (-164)O8.5 (-120)PIT-150-1.5 (+140)U8.5 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+120+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-108)PIT-140-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG3.5 (-135/+106)1.5 (-145/+114)PIT4.5 (-104/-115)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULanden Roupp4.5 (-148 / +121)15.5 (+105 / -122)Bubba Chandler4.5 (+114 / -133)15.5 (+104 / -138)
Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs W5.09534211
W5.09534211Aug 20 '26@ L5.19025434
L5.19025434Aug 14 '26vs L5.29155344
L5.29155344Aug 8 '26vs L5.18532511
L5.18532511Aug 2 '26@ L4.29966455
L4.29966455Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@ L5.28334212
L5.28334212Aug 21 '26@ L4.08864244
L4.08864244Aug 14 '26vs W5.08754222
W5.08754222Aug 8 '26vs W6.08553100
W6.08553100Aug 3 '26@ W5.29654423
W5.29654423SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT4.02.25elite8.03.03.0(1)
at PIT—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 9 '26vs L4.09483311
L4.09483311Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.03.60good3.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 10 '26@ L5.07735122
L5.07735122home starts5.03.00good4.34.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14 '26vs W5.08754222
W5.08754222Aug 8 '26vs W6.08553100
W6.08553100Jul 28 '26vs L4.09137135
L4.09137135Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-2 vs PIT this season (4 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 2.8 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.8 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 3-1 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 4 starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-2 vs SFG this season (4 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 4-1 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 5.0 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.4 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-1 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 3 home starts.
Flags · 3
- SFG bullpen elevated (10.7 IP over 2g)
- PIT bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: 2026-08-21: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.67 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
San Francisco's 130 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 143 over their last 12 against Bubba Chandler's 47.5% hard-hit rate over his last 3 is a real edge, but their team total is already priced up at -135 for the over and their moneyline at +129 reflects it, while Pittsburgh's own 106 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 6 against Roupp's 5.58 xERA keeps the total honest at 8.5 — both bullpens carrying elevated usage cuts the same direction the market has already gone. Roupp's 4.5 strikeout over at -148 asks for more than the 5, 2 and 3 he has managed in his last 3 with a 13.7% K rate, and his 15.5 outs line matches the 5.2, 5.1 and 5.0 innings he keeps throwing. Chandler's 15.6% whiff rate over his last 3 makes the strikeout over unattractive at any number, and his outs line at 15.5 already sits above his 4.9 innings per start with no price left on the under.
MIL @ CHC✓7:40 PM · Wrigley Field
MIL @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
J. Misiorowski R
xERA2.48 (elite)ERA1.50 (elite)K%26.5 (good)Whiff%32.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%28.9 (elite)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs94BB%7.3 (avg)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+196 (elite)K%13.2 (elite)Whiff%17.6 (elite)HH%34.3 (below)
L12
wRC+163 (elite)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%35.9 (avg)
David Peterson L
xERA3.65 (good)ERA2.92 (elite)K%28.3 (elite)Whiff%31.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.7 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs69BB%11.3 (below)
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+140 (elite)K%9.7 (elite)Whiff%13.5 (elite)HH%38.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%14.9 (elite)Whiff%18.1 (above)HH%33.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 2.96 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 5.88 (poor)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-162-1.5 (+105)O8.5 (+100)CHC+136+1.5 (-125)U8.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-188-0.5 (-128)O4.5 (+100)CHC+150+0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (-111/-110)2.5 (+105/-135)CHC3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ. Misiorowski7.5 (-126 / +100)17.5 (-131 / +104)David Peterson4.5 (+104 / -130)15.5 (-103 / -122)
J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ W6.08962222
W6.08962222Aug 21 '26vs W6.09664200
W6.09664200Aug 15 '26@ W6.09865111
W6.09865111Aug 9 '26vs W6.09494133
W6.09494133Aug 2 '26@ L7.083102122
L7.083102122David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs L5.08866322
L5.08866322Aug 22 '26@ L6.09884222
L6.09884222Aug 17 '26vs W1.1*2210100
W1.1*2210100Aug 12 '26@ W5.09069334
W5.09069334Aug 6 '26vs W5.08937311
W5.08937311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.32.25elite7.02.02.7(3)
at CHC5.02.70elite6.52.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26 '26vs W6.010782411
W6.010782411May 19 '26@ W6.07483100
W6.07483100Aug 20 '25@ L4.07851333
L4.07851333David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.72.37elite3.05.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27 '26@ W5.26925022
W5.26925022Jul 3 '25vs W6.210345312
W6.210345312home starts5.02.70elite4.56.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs L5.08866322
L5.08866322Aug 6 '26vs W5.08937311
W5.08937311Trends · MIL
- MIL are 5-3 vs CHC this season (8 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 3.6 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 3.6 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 1-4 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 3-5 vs MIL this season (8 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 3-2 in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in David Peterson's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 6.4 runs/game in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.6 runs/game in David Peterson's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 5-0 to the over in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-0 to the over in David Peterson's last 3 home starts.
Weather
87°F, Wind 7 mph SW
Flags · 5
- MIL bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
- CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-17
- CHC — David Peterson: recent opponents high-K: SEA 31%, CIN 26%
- WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 7 mph from the SW
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
J. Misiorowski u7.5 Ks (-105)
Misiorowski has finished with exactly 6 strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts, and the Cubs are the wrong lineup to break that pattern: 13.2 K% and 17.6 Whiff% vs RHP over their last 6, down from 17.9 K% over their last 12, the most contact-oriented offense on the board right now. His outs line at 17.5 puts him at six innings, so eight strikeouts means beating his recent per-inning rate against a club that is putting everything in play. He did get 8 in each of his two 2026 meetings with Chicago, but that was before this contact surge and he has not reached 8 in any of his last three outings. A line at 7.5 asks for a career-type night from an arm that has been steady at six.
DET @ MIN✓7:40 PM · Target Field
DET @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Drew Anderson R
xERA4.08 (avg)ERA3.68 (good)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs79BB%12.7 (below)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+166 (elite)K%13.4 (elite)Whiff%17.0 (elite)HH%39.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+131 (elite)K%14.0 (elite)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%38.1 (avg)
Dean Kremer R
xERA4.63 (below)ERA6.75 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%30.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%40.9 (below)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%12.1 (below)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+8 (poor)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%40.5 (above)
L12
wRC+45 (poor)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%20.9 (above)HH%39.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 4.77 (below)ERA 7.13 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
MIN
xERA 4.57 (below)ERA 6.27 (poor)2d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-104-1.5 (+158)O9.0 (+102)MIN-112+1.5 (-185)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-108+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-130)MIN-116-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET4.5 (+112/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)MIN4.5 (+120/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDrew Anderson4.5 (+126 / -160)15.5 (+120 / +122)Dean Kremer4.5 (+105 / -130)15.5 (-110 / -111)
Drew Anderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs L4.28954500
L4.28954500Aug 22 '26@ 
L5.07545133
L5.07545133Aug 16 '26vs L5.07454233
L5.07454233Aug 11 '26vs W4.07044211
W4.07044211Aug 5 '26@ L3.24203100
L3.24203100Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs L4.09037356
L4.09037356Aug 22 '26@ L5.110153322
L5.110153322Aug 16 '26vs L5.18965244
L5.18965244Aug 10 '26vs W7.08971111
W7.08971111Aug 5 '26@ L5.08823211
L5.08823211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs DET4.612.72poor3.56.03.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28 '26@ L4.08148388
L4.08148388Apr 27 '25@ L5.29734455
L5.29734455home starts5.45.59poor5.34.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs L4.09037356
L4.09037356Aug 16 '26vs L5.18965244
L5.18965244Aug 10 '26vs W7.08971111
W7.08971111Trends · DET
- DET are 2-7 vs MIN this season (9 games).
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 1-4 in Drew Anderson's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-2 in Drew Anderson's last 3 away starts.
- DET average 3.0 runs/game in Drew Anderson's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.0 runs/game in Drew Anderson's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 1-3 to the over in Drew Anderson's last 4 starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 7-2 vs DET this season (9 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 1-4 in Dean Kremer's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 1-2 in Dean Kremer's last 3 home starts.
- MIN average 4.8 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.0 runs/game in Dean Kremer's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 to the over in Dean Kremer's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-1 to the over in Dean Kremer's last 3 home starts.
Weather
84°F, Wind 4 mph E
Flags · 4
- MIN — Dean Kremer: Whiff% 30.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 21.2 shows
- MIN bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g)
- DET — Drew Anderson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-02
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
MIN Team Total o4.5 (+118)
Minnesota is at 166 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 13.4 K%, and the 131 over their last 12 confirms it rather than contradicting it — this is the most productive lineup on the slate against right-handed pitching. Drew Anderson has averaged 4.9 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 12.7 BB% and walked 5 in 4.2 innings his last time out, which hands three-plus innings to a Detroit bullpen carrying a 4.77 xERA and 7.13 ERA over its last 12. Anderson's 4.08 xERA over that window is better than his walk rate implies and Minnesota has been held down by good arms recently, but Target Field at 87°F with an APF of 107 and a home average of 6.0 runs in their last three starts behind this rotation slot supports the number. Plus money on five runs from a lineup this hot against a short starter and a leaking bullpen is the mispricing.
MIA @ KCR✓7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
MIA @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Eury Perez R
xERA4.05 (avg)ERA3.86 (avg)K%23.7 (good)Whiff%32.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs91BB%20.3 (poor)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+120 (above)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+133 (elite)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%39.2 (avg)
Noah Cameron L
xERA2.32 (elite)ERA0.90 (elite)K%17.6 (avg)Whiff%29.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%3.6 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs94BB%8.1 (avg)
MIA vs LHP
L6
wRC+51 (poor)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%27.4 (poor)
L12
wRC+71 (poor)K%23.6 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%30.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 4.53 (below)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.24 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-104-1.5 (+149)O9.0 (-103)KCR-112+1.5 (-176)U9.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-106+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-120)KCR-118-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (+102/-125)1.5 (-160/+124)KCR4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez4.5 (-142 / +128)15.5 (-132 / +103)Noah Cameron4.5 (-122 / -104)17.5 (-125 / +100)
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@ L3.07452455
L3.07452455Aug 22 '26vs W5.010043312
W5.010043312Aug 16 '26@ W6.010052500
W6.010052500Aug 11 '26vs W7.010073200
W7.010073200Aug 5 '26@ L5.09197244
L5.09197244Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ W6.08136222
W6.08136222Aug 21 '26vs W5.08522300
W5.08522300Aug 16 '26@ W9.011581100
W9.011581100Aug 10 '26@ L5.210126244
L5.210126244Aug 5 '26vs W8.010693111
W8.010693111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA—
home starts6.04.00avg4.04.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs W5.08522300
W5.08522300Aug 5 '26vs W8.010693111
W8.010693111Jul 19 '26vs L5.09019277
L5.09019277Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-4 in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 3.2 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 2.6 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 to the over in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-0 to the over in Eury Perez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 4-1 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 3-2 in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 5.6 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 5.6 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 0-3 to the over in Noah Cameron's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
95°F, Wind 7 mph SSW
Flags · 4
- KCR — Noah Cameron: Whiff% 29.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 17.6 shows
- MIA — Eury Perez: last start: 74 pitches over 3.0 IP
- MIA — Eury Perez: 2026-08-28: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 7 mph from the SSW
KCR ML (-110)
Kansas City's lineup is at 120 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 133 over their last 12 — established, not a streak — and it faces Eury Perez, who has walked 20.3% of hitters over his last 3 starts and averaged 4.7 IP/gs, exiting after 74 pitches and 3.0 innings his last time out. Miami brings a 51 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 (71 over their last 12) into a matchup with Noah Cameron, who owns a 2.32 xERA and 6.7 IP/gs across his last 3 and has allowed one earned run in his last 20 innings. Perez's xERA of 4.05 says he is better than the walk rate suggests and Miami's bullpen has a 3.23 xERA over its last 12, which keeps this from being a blowout play — but a pick'em price on the side with both the better arm and by far the better lineup is the error, with Kansas City 8-2 at home over their last 10.
MIA Team Total u4.5 (-125)
Miami carries a 51 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 71 over their last 12, with a 27.4% hard-hit rate over the last 6 — the weakest contact quality on this card — and they draw Noah Cameron, who has a 2.32 xERA and 0.90 ERA over his last 3 while averaging 6.7 innings per start, including a 9-inning one-hitter on Aug 16 and 6 innings at Toronto on Aug 27. Whatever is left goes to a Kansas City bullpen at 3.60 xERA and 3.24 ERA over its last 12 with just 3.0 relief innings logged in the past two days. Cameron's modest 17.6% K rate over his last 3 means balls get put in play, and 95 degrees with the wind out helps carry, but a lineup hitting like this needs traffic it has not been creating. The market has Miami priced as if their bat side is league-average when their last two weeks against left-handed pitching say otherwise.
Eury Perez u15.5 Outs (+103)
Perez has walked batters at a 20.3% clip over his last 3 starts and it is shortening his outings: 5 walks on 100 pitches through 6 innings, 3 walks on 100 pitches through 5, then 4 walks on 74 pitches in just 3 innings on Aug 28, averaging 4.7 innings per start. Kansas City has a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 133 over their last 12 with a 39.0% hard-hit rate over the last 6, exactly the profile that runs a count up, and Miami's bullpen is at normal usage with 7.7 innings over the past two days so there is no need to push him. His 4.05 xERA over the last 3 says he is not being hit hard when he is in the zone, but the walk rate is what ends outings, and the market is pricing this line at his best recent length rather than his median.
CHW @ HOU✓8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Retractable)
CHW @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Davis Martin R
xERA9.93 (poor)ERA14.63 (poor)K%11.9 (poor)Whiff%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.3 (below)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs2.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs50BB%9.5 (avg)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+60 (poor)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Hayden Wesneski R
xERA2.43 (elite)ERA3.86 (avg)K%27.6 (good)Whiff%26.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below)Barrel%2.8 (elite)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs88BB%10.3 (below)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+78 (poor)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%34.5 (below)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 3.20 (good)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 4.81 (below)ERA 6.08 (poor)2d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+120+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-114)HOU-140-1.5 (+152)U8.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+112+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-120)HOU-135-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-160/+124)HOU4.5 (+108/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavis Martin3.5 (+102 / -128)13.5 (-113 / -117)Hayden Wesneski4.5 (-150 / +120)15.5 (+106 / -138)
Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13 '26vs L2.03532134
L2.03532134Aug 9 '26vs W1.02312112
W1.02312112Aug 4 '26@ L5.091110299
L5.091110299Jul 29 '26vs W6.010665244
W6.010665244Jul 24 '26vs L5.08836044
L5.08836044Hayden Wesneski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ W5.09163211
W5.09163211Aug 21 '26vs W5.09141300
W5.09141300Aug 15 '26vs L4.08167155
L4.08167155Aug 10 '26@ W7.08345233
W7.08345233Aug 4 '26vs W6.07844222
W6.07844222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Davis Martin
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.36.19poor4.37.00.7(3)
at HOU6.06.00poor5.07.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24 '26vs L5.08836044
L5.08836044Jun 12 '25@ L6.010057244
L6.010057244May 3 '25vs L5.08858033
L5.08858033Hayden Wesneski
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW—
home starts5.04.20avg4.74.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs W5.09141300
W5.09141300Aug 15 '26vs L4.08167155
L4.08167155Aug 4 '26vs W6.07844222
W6.07844222Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-3 vs HOU this season (5 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 0-5 in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 5.2 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 2.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 4-1 to the over in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 3-2 vs CHW this season (5 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 4-1 in Hayden Wesneski's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 2-1 in Hayden Wesneski's last 3 home starts.
- HOU average 5.4 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.3 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-2 to the over in Hayden Wesneski's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 2-1 to the over in Hayden Wesneski's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Retractable
Flags · 8
- CHW — Davis Martin: small sample: 8.0 IP over 3 starts
- CHW — Davis Martin: avg 2.7 IP/gs over his last 3
- CHW — Davis Martin: Whiff% 19.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.9 shows
- HOU bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g)
- CHW — Davis Martin: 20 days since last start (2026-08-13) news ↗
- CHW — Davis Martin: last start: 35 pitches over 2.0 IP
- HOU — Hayden Wesneski: 2026-08-15: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 9 mph from the ESE (retractable roof — conditions apply only if open)
Hayden Wesneski u15.5 Outs (-138)
Wesneski has not reached 16 outs in any of his last 3 starts — 4.0 innings on 81 pitches, 5.0 on 91, and 5.0 on 91 — averaging 4.7 innings per start, and a 10.3% walk rate over that window is what keeps the pitch count climbing faster than the innings. Reaching this number means a sixth inning he has needed roughly 100-plus pitches to get to. Houston's bullpen is carrying elevated usage at 9.3 relief innings over the past two days, which is the argument for stretching him, but the White Sox at a 34.5% hard-hit rate vs RHP over their last 6 still put pressure on the count, and his 2.43 xERA over the last 3 has come in five-inning packages, not six. The juice buys the shorter number, and the market is paying for the quality of his innings rather than the quantity he has actually delivered.
NYY @ LAA✓9:38 PM · Angel Stadium
NYY @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Cam Schlittler R
xERA2.94 (elite)ERA1.06 (elite)K%26.4 (good)Whiff%32.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.6 (avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%15.3 (poor)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+93 (below)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%35.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%36.9 (avg)
Reid Detmers L
xERA2.28 (elite)ERA0.45 (elite)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%27.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%3.8 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs89BB%1.4 (elite)
NYY vs LHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%34.8 (below)
L12
wRC+131 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 3.86 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
LAA
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 4.85 (below)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-163-1.5 (+113)O6.5 (-106)LAA+140+1.5 (-134)U6.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-166-0.5 (-108)O3.5 (-102)LAA+134+0.5 (-120)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-120/-110)LAA2.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (+135/-175)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCam Schlittler7.5 (-136 / +113)17.5 (-166 / +130)Reid Detmers6.5 (-115 / -108)17.5 (-118 / -112)
Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs W5.210282500
W5.210282500Aug 21 '26vs W6.09646311
W6.09646311Aug 15 '26@ L5.19774311
L5.19774311Aug 9 '26vs L7.096113011
L7.096113011Aug 3 '26vs L3.08364544
L3.08364544Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs L6.08628011
L6.08628011Aug 21 '26@ L6.08956100
L6.08956100Aug 15 '26vs W8.092112000
W8.092112000Aug 10 '26vs L6.08863411
L6.08863411Aug 5 '26@ L4.08154133
L4.08154133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY7.01.29elite9.04.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 14 '26@ W7.09994011
W7.09994011home starts6.70.90elite6.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs L6.08628011
L6.08628011Aug 15 '26vs W8.092112000
W8.092112000Aug 10 '26vs L6.08863411
L6.08863411Trends · NYY
- NYY are 3-3 vs LAA this season (6 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 2-3 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 2.6 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 1-4 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-2 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 3-3 vs NYY this season (6 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-4 in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 1.6 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 1.4 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 to the over in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-2 to the over in Reid Detmers's last 3 home starts.
Weather
72°F, Wind 5 mph WSW
Flags · 5
- NYY bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: last start: 102 pitches over 5.2 IP
- LAA — Reid Detmers: high-K outing 2026-08-15 (11 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
- LAA — Reid Detmers: low-K outing 2026-08-28 (2 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
- WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 5 mph from the WSW
Reid Detmers o17.5 Outs (-118)
Detmers has gone 8.0, 6.0 and 6.0 innings over his last 3 starts on 92, 89 and 86 pitches — every one of them at or past 18 outs, and none of them close to a pitch limit. The 1.4% walk rate over that window is what makes it repeatable: he is not handing out free baserunners, and his 2.28 xERA and 0.45 ERA over the same three starts mean no innings get away from him. The Yankees at 126 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 131 over their last 12 are the best lineup he has seen in that stretch, but he held them to 1 earned run over 7 innings on 99 pitches in April, and the Angels' bullpen at 4.85 ERA over its last 12 is not a group a manager reaches for early. The market has this at a coin flip when his recent workload has cleared it every time out.
STL @ LAD✓10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
STL @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brycen Mautz L
xERA4.08 (avg)ERA9.00 (poor)K%34.5 (elite)Whiff%28.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs60BB%10.3 (below)
LAD vs LHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%29.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%29.7 (poor)
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.25 (elite)ERA1.93 (elite)K%35.1 (elite)Whiff%33.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%47.6 (poor)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs103BB%5.4 (good)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+88 (below)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%41.9 (above)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.84 (below)ERA 7.38 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 3.21 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+205+1.5 (-105)O8.0 (-102)LAD-245-1.5 (-110)U7.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+190+0.5 (+112)O4.5 (+112)LAD-230-0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL2.5 (-135/+118)1.5 (+114/-145)LAD4.5 (-118/-105)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrycen Mautz——Y. Yamamoto6.5 (-130 / +116)18.5 (-110 / -116)
Brycen Mautz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs L3.0*6185144
L3.0*6185144May 25 '26@ L3.0*5924222
L3.0*5924222Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@ L6.110584111
L6.110584111Aug 21 '26vs W6.110795122
W6.110795122Aug 14 '26vs W6.09794211
W6.09794211Aug 8 '26@ W5.210763300
W5.210763300Aug 1 '26vs L8.09634133
L8.09634133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.00.00elite9.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 7 '25@ L6.09494200
L6.09494200home starts6.72.69elite7.04.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs W6.110795122
W6.110795122Aug 14 '26vs W6.09794211
W6.09794211Aug 1 '26vs L8.09634133
L8.09634133Trends · STL
- STL are 3-1 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- STL are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-3 vs STL this season (4 games).
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 2.4 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.0 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 1-4 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-2 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 3 home starts.
Flags · 5
- STL — Brycen Mautz: small sample: 6.0 IP over 3 starts
- STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- LAD bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- STL — Brycen Mautz: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-29, 2026-05-25
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: last start: 105 pitches over 6.1 IP
Y. Yamamoto o6.5 Ks (-130)
Yamamoto has struck out 9, 9 and 8 over his last 3 starts, working 6.0, 6.1 and 6.1 innings on 97, 107 and 105 pitches, and his 35.1% K rate with a 33.1% whiff rate over that window is the bat-missing engine behind it. St. Louis strikes out 22.1% of the time vs RHP over their last 6 and 24.0% over their last 12, so the contact profile in front of him does not blunt the rate, and his posted outs line of 18.5 gives him the six-plus innings the number needs. The stressed Dodgers bullpen (6.0 relief innings in one game over the past two days) argues for him being left in rather than lifted early. The market is pricing this near his floor rather than the eight-strikeout output his last three starts have actually produced against comparable contact.