AI Picks · 3 Bets · Oct 4
2u Picks
1u Picks
Blake Snell Outs u16.5 (-112)
ATL @ LAD · 8:00 PM ET
Snell has gone just 5.2, 1.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts, an average of barely 3.6 IP/gs, and his most recent outing was only 4.0 IP on 77 pitches. That is roughly 11-14 outs per start against a posted line of 16.5, nearly two full innings higher than his actual recent workload. The Dodgers bullpen behind him carries a 1.65 xERA over its last 12 games with only normal 2-day stress, giving the staff every reason to keep pulling him early rather than stretch him to the line's length.
Found at 7:00 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
SDP Team Total o3.5 (+120)
SDP @ MIL · 4:00 PM ET
San Diego's offense carries a 126 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games and 135 over its last 12 - the two windows agree, which marks this as established form rather than a hot streak. Logan Henderson is a quality arm but has needed exactly 5.0 IP in each of his last 3 starts while working through a lineup that scores at this level, and in his lone start against San Diego this season he allowed 3 ER in 6.1 IP. A market pricing this offense under a 44% chance to reach four runs undersells a lineup performing well above average across two separate windows against this specific handedness.
Found at 7:00 AM ET
Logan Henderson Ks u6.5 (-150)
SDP @ MIL · 4:00 PM ET
San Diego's lineup has struck out in just 18.6% of its plate appearances over its last 6 games vs RHP, with a matching 20.8% Whiff% — a genuinely low-strikeout, contact-first look rather than an outlier number. Henderson has averaged 5.7 strikeouts over his own last 3 starts, and a 6.5 line asks for more than his recent form against a notably more difficult-to-whiff opponent than he has otherwise faced. Even at -150, his recent K totals and this specific matchup put the real number below what the market is pricing.
Found at 1:56 PM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
SDP @ 
MIL✓4:00 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
SDP @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Michael King R
xERA2.75 (elite)ERA3.71 (good)K%26.4 (good)Whiff%27.9 (good)BB%9.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.2 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs94
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+115 (above)K%25.5 (below)Whiff%19.6 (above)BB%11.0 (elite)HH%38.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%30.1 (poor)Whiff%25.6 (below)BB%10.7 (above)HH%36.7 (avg)
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.94 (elite)ERA2.40 (elite)K%27.9 (good)Whiff%25.2 (good)BB%8.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.2 (elite)Barrel%5.1 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs90
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+147 (elite)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%20.8 (above)BB%8.5 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+123 (above)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%23.6 (avg)BB%7.9 (below)HH%37.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 4.52 (below)ERA 2.85 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 2.25 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+114+1.5 (-196)O7.5 (+106)MIL-130-1.5 (+162)U7.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+122+0.5 (-128)O3.5 (-146)MIL-145-0.5 (-102)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (+108/-135)1.5 (-110/-120)MIL3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael King5.5 (+126 / +116)14.5 (-133 / +120)Logan Henderson6.5 (+131 / -150)15.5 (-122 / -108)
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '26@ 
L4.08156255
L4.08156255Sep 17 '26@ 
W6.010467222
W6.010467222Sep 12 '26@ 
W7.09645033
W7.09645033Sep 6 '26vs 
W6.09634300
W6.09634300Aug 31 '26@ 
W6.09664300
W6.09664300Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26@ 
W5.08734311
W5.08734311Sep 16 '26@ 
W5.08786133
W5.08786133Sep 9 '26vs 
W5.09562101
W5.09562101Sep 3 '26@ L7.010273022
L7.010273022Aug 28 '26vs 
W7.09171011
W7.09171011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.21.73elite5.06.02.0(1)
at MIL5.21.73elite5.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 13 '26@ W5.29956211
W5.29956211Logan Henderson
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP6.14.43avg7.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10 '26@ L6.19175133
L6.19175133home starts6.01.00elite5.72.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 9 '26vs W5.09562101
W5.09562101Aug 28 '26vs W7.09171011
W7.09171011Aug 22 '26vs 
W6.010045211
W6.010045211Trends · SDP
- SDP are 4-3 vs MIL this season (7 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 4-1 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 3-2 in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 5.0 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 3-2 to the over in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-1 to the over in Michael King's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 3-4 vs SDP this season (7 games).
- MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL have won 6 straight.
- MIL are 4-1 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in Logan Henderson's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.2 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
69°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph WNW
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- MIL offense: K% 25.5 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 19.6 supports
- SDP bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g)
- MIL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- SDP — Michael King: 12 days since last start (2026-09-22) news ↗
- SDP — Michael King: 2026-09-22: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.43 ERA equivalent
- SDP — Michael King: recent opponents high-K: SFG 38%, COL 26%
- MIL — Logan Henderson: 11 days since last start (2026-09-23) news ↗
SDP Team Total o3.5 (+120)
San Diego's offense carries a 126 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games and 135 over its last 12 - the two windows agree, which marks this as established form rather than a hot streak. Logan Henderson is a quality arm but has needed exactly 5.0 IP in each of his last 3 starts while working through a lineup that scores at this level, and in his lone start against San Diego this season he allowed 3 ER in 6.1 IP. A market pricing this offense under a 44% chance to reach four runs undersells a lineup performing well above average across two separate windows against this specific handedness.
Logan Henderson Ks u6.5 (-150)
San Diego's lineup has struck out in just 18.6% of its plate appearances over its last 6 games vs RHP, with a matching 20.8% Whiff% — a genuinely low-strikeout, contact-first look rather than an outlier number. Henderson has averaged 5.7 strikeouts over his own last 3 starts, and a 6.5 line asks for more than his recent form against a notably more difficult-to-whiff opponent than he has otherwise faced. Even at -150, his recent K totals and this specific matchup put the real number below what the market is pricing.
ATL @ LAD✓8:00 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHot
ATL @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Grant Holmes RO
xERA6.63 (poor)ERA3.00 (good)K%12.2 (below)Whiff%25.3 (good)BB%8.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%59.0 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below)IP/gs12.0 IP/gsH/gs13.0PC/gs71
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (below)BB%10.4 (above)HH%45.5 (elite)
L12
wRC+135 (elite)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%22.9 (avg)BB%11.4 (elite)HH%42.4 (above)
Blake Snell L
xERA2.23 (elite)ERA1.69 (elite)K%29.3 (elite)Whiff%31.2 (elite)BB%4.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%21.4 (elite)Barrel%3.6 (elite)IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs66
ATL vs LHP
L6
wRC+75 (poor)K%25.5 (below)Whiff%22.7 (avg)BB%8.5 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (avg)BB%7.0 (below)HH%38.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 5.16 (below)ERA 4.53 (below)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 1.83 (elite)ERA 2.11 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+130+1.5 (-170)O7.5 (+114)LAD-152-1.5 (+150)U7.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+130+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-114)LAD-140-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (+114/-145)1.5 (+105/-135)LAD3.5 (-118/-108)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGrant Holmes——Blake Snell6.5 (-120 / +105)15.5 (-125 / +100)
Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
L4.0*5413311
L4.0*5413311Sep 19 '26@ 
W6.08748022
W6.08748022Sep 13 '26vs L4.07105222
L4.07105222Sep 7 '26@ L6.08963200
L6.08963200Sep 2 '26@ 
W3.02610000
W3.02610000Blake Snell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26 '26@ W4.07735011
W4.07735011Sep 16 '26@ L1.01911000
L1.01911000Sep 11 '26@ W5.210184211
W5.210184211Sep 4 '26vs W6.010075200
W6.010075200Aug 29 '26@ 
L5.099103311
L5.099103311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.05.40poor6.04.03.0(2)
at LAD4.09.00poor3.04.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 2 '25vs L6.09494222
L6.09494222Mar 31 '25@ L4.08934444
L4.08934444Blake Snell
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.55.14below3.55.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 9 '26vs L3.07756245
L3.07756245Apr 2 '25vs W4.08025405
W4.08025405home starts6.00.50elite7.73.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 4 '26vs W6.010075200
W6.010075200Aug 23 '26vs W6.09462300
W6.09462300Aug 11 '26vs 
W6.084103111
W6.084103111Trends · ATL
- ATL are 5-2 vs LAD this season (7 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 5.0 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 4-1 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-1 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-5 vs ATL this season (7 games).
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD have won 4 straight.
- LAD are 3-2 in Blake Snell's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-1 in Blake Snell's last 4 home starts.
- LAD average 3.6 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 4.0 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 1-4 to the over in Blake Snell's last 5 starts.
Weather · Hot
96°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WSW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 10
- OPENER: ATL start Ray Kerr (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 2.3 IP (longest 3.3)), with Grant Holmes (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — LAD's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- LAD — Blake Snell: avg 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3
- ATL — Grant Holmes: Whiff% 25.3 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 12.2 shows
- ATL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.16 over its last 12
- ATL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- ATL — Grant Holmes: 15 days since last start (2026-09-19) news ↗
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-25
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent opponents low-K: PHI 16%, PHI 16%
- LAD — Blake Snell: last start: 77 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
- LAD — Blake Snell: recent opponents high-K: CIN 38%, SFG 30%
Blake Snell Outs u16.5 (-112)
Snell has gone just 5.2, 1.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts, an average of barely 3.6 IP/gs, and his most recent outing was only 4.0 IP on 77 pitches. That is roughly 11-14 outs per start against a posted line of 16.5, nearly two full innings higher than his actual recent workload. The Dodgers bullpen behind him carries a 1.65 xERA over its last 12 games with only normal 2-day stress, giving the staff every reason to keep pulling him early rather than stretch him to the line's length.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.