AI Picks · 3 Bets · Sep 12
2u Picks
1u Picks
Kyle Bradish Outs u16.5 (-101)
BAL @ TOR · 3:08 PM ET
Bradish has gone 4.1, 5.0, and 4.0 innings in his last 3 starts, never within three outs of this 16.5 line, while walking batters at a 12.3% clip over that stretch that has repeatedly ballooned his pitch counts and ended outings early (91, 95, and 85 pitches for outings that short). Toronto's lineup hits for a strong 121 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6 games with a well-above-average 43.9% hard-hit rate, giving him little margin to work deep into a game he has consistently failed to reach even against weaker offenses. The market's own no-vig price still leans toward the over at 53%, which does not match a starter who has not cleared 15 outs in any of his last three outings.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
Randy Dobnak Outs o15.5 (+112)
KCR @ BOS · 4:11 PM ET
Dobnak has thrown exactly 6.0 innings in each of his last 3 starts, including the outing where he allowed 6 earned runs, showing his manager keeps him in regardless of results - a pattern that clears this 15.5 line by 2.5 outs every time it has come up recently. Boston's bullpen carries some scoring punch at home but Dobnak's low walk rate (4.1% BB over his last 3) keeps his pitch counts efficient, and nothing in his recent workload points to an early hook. The market prices the under as the favorite here at 56% no-vig despite a starter who has not failed to reach 18 outs in his last three tries.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
PHI @ ATL F5 u3.5 (+110)
PHI @ ATL · 7:16 PM ET
Luzardo carries a 0.40 ERA and 2.41 xERA over his last 3 starts, including a 9K/0ER shutout of this same Atlanta lineup 5 days ago, and Atlanta has been one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties at -30 wRC+ over its last 6 games and -12 over its last 12 - a rare case where both windows agree the weakness is real, not a blip. Mahle has been just as sharp on the other side, running a 1.05 ERA and 3.23 xERA over his last 3 with a scoreless 6IP start against Philadelphia six days ago, and Philadelphia's own bat is cold at 73 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP. With both starters missing bats and dominant recently and both lineups struggling against the specific hand they face today, a first-five total of 3.5 is priced too close to a coin flip for how suppressed this game profiles.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
COL @
DET1:10 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
COL @
DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tanner Gordon R
xERA2.90 (elite)ERA3.78 (avg)K%17.6 (avg)Whiff%19.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs77BB%2.9 (elite)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+93 (below)K%28.9 (poor)BB%12.2 (elite)Whiff%28.6 (poor)HH%31.5 (below)
L12
wRC+76 (poor)K%28.3 (poor)BB%9.1 (avg)Whiff%28.2 (poor)HH%38.2 (avg)
Andrew Sears L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+69 (poor)K%22.2 (avg)BB%10.1 (above)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%26.5 (poor)
L12
wRC+82 (below)K%25.0 (below)BB%7.5 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%31.0 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.73 (below)ERA 6.02 (poor)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 4.91 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+146+1.5 (-149)O8.5 (-105)DET-174-1.5 (+128)U8.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+154+0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-138)DET-196-0.5 (-135)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UCOL3.5 (-111/-115)DET4.5 (-104/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTanner Gordon3.5 (-130 / +114)15.5 (-110 / -114)Andrew Sears——
Tanner Gordon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
L4.28048155
L4.28048155Aug 31 '26vs
L5.06033111
L5.06033111Aug 26 '26@
W7.09056011
W7.09056011Aug 21 '26vs
L5.18229255
L5.18229255Aug 15 '26@
L4.0*6343000
L4.0*6343000Andrew Sears · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 4 '26@
L5.29344211
L5.29344211Aug 29 '26vs
W2.2*4212000
W2.2*4212000Aug 23 '26@
L4.0*7436155
L4.0*7436155SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Gordon
IPERAKHBB
vs DET6.15.90poor4.09.01.0(1)
at DET—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 8 '25vs
L6.18949147
L6.18949147Trends · COL
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- COL have lost 5 straight.
- COL are 2-3 in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-1 in Tanner Gordon's last 3 away starts.
- COL average 5.4 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL average 6.7 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-2 to the over in Tanner Gordon's last 4 starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 0-1 in Andrew Sears's last 1 starts.
- DET average 3.0 runs/game in Andrew Sears's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- DET — Andrew Sears: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- COL — Tanner Gordon: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15, 2026-08-09
- COL — Tanner Gordon: 2026-09-06: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.54 ERA equivalent
- DET — Andrew Sears: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-29, 2026-08-23
AI Analysis
Gordon has pitched well recently but Detroit's own offense is weak against right-handers at just 70 wRC+, largely canceling out any side or total edge, and Colorado's own bats are below average against lefties too. Detroit's starter Andrew Sears has no stats this season to build a prop case on, and Gordon's K and outs lines already sit close to his recent production, leaving nothing to bet on either arm.
NYM @
NYY1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
NYM @
NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Zac Thornton L
xERA3.65 (good)ERA5.06 (below)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%17.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%1.5 (elite)
NYY vs LHP
L6
wRC+262 (elite)K%14.7 (elite)BB%20.6 (elite)Whiff%13.0 (elite)HH%31.8 (below)
L12
wRC+165 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)BB%8.9 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)HH%36.5 (avg)
Gerrit Cole R
xERA4.90 (below)ERA4.91 (below)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%22.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.8 (poor)Barrel%13.1 (below)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs84BB%2.6 (elite)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+190 (elite)K%15.5 (elite)BB%12.6 (elite)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%39.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+156 (elite)K%17.4 (above)BB%9.9 (above)Whiff%21.6 (avg)HH%41.1 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 4.13 (avg)ERA 5.96 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 5.18 (below)ERA 3.76 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+155+1.5 (-137)O8.5 (+100)NYY-174-1.5 (+120)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+145+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-118)NYY-182-0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-105/-118)1.5 (-120/-110)NYY4.5 (-104/-120)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZac Thornton3.5 (-159 / +130)15.5 (+125 / -161)Gerrit Cole5.5 (-113 / +103)17.5 (-146 / +114)
Zac Thornton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 5 '26vs
L5.08267166
L5.08267166Aug 30 '26vs
L5.09756022
L5.09756022Aug 25 '26vs
W6.08947011
W6.08947011Aug 18 '26vs
L5.09977133
L5.09977133Aug 12 '26@
L6.08027133
L6.08027133Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L7.08436044
L7.08436044Sep 1 '26@
W5.19058133
W5.19058133Aug 27 '26vs
L6.07956133
L6.07956133Aug 20 '26@
W6.09384111
W6.09384111Aug 14 '26@
L6.08755212
L6.08755212SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM—
home starts6.73.60good8.35.30.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs
L6.07956133
L6.07956133Aug 8 '26vs
W7.08296022
W7.08296022Jul 22 '26vs
L7.093114033
L7.093114033Trends · NYM
- NYM are 2-2 vs NYY this season (4 games).
- NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 1-4 in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-2 in Zac Thornton's last 4 away starts.
- NYM average 3.2 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.2 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 2-3 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-0 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-2 vs NYM this season (4 games).
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY have won 4 straight.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.6 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-1 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SSE
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- NYY bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.18 over its last 12
- NYY bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
- NYM — Zac Thornton: 2026-09-05: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.55 ERA equivalent
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: recent opponents high-K: HOU 25%, LAA 31%
AI Analysis
New York's Yankees offense has been red-hot against lefties at 212 wRC+ over its last 6 games and that's already baked into a lopsided spread and moneyline, leaving no side value, while the total sits close to fair given Cole's rough recent form being offset by Thornton's shaky control-independent outings. Both starters' K and outs props are already priced near their recent performance levels with no head-to-head data to lean on either way.
PIT @
CHC2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
PIT @
CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Paul Skenes R
xERA3.46 (good)ERA2.81 (elite)K%14.9 (below)Whiff%21.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.7 (good)Barrel%3.9 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%6.0 (good)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%18.9 (above)BB%9.7 (above)Whiff%16.2 (elite)HH%41.9 (above)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%19.1 (above)BB%10.4 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%40.0 (above)
Clay Holmes R
xERA3.67 (good)ERA4.15 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs91BB%9.9 (avg)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%12.4 (elite)BB%6.6 (below)Whiff%17.6 (elite)HH%51.8 (elite)
L12
wRC+109 (avg)K%17.6 (above)BB%9.5 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%44.3 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 4.37 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.02 (avg)ERA 4.29 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+105-1.5 (+155)O9.0 (-105)CHC-122-1.5 (+159)U8.5 (+110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+100+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-130)CHC-124-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UPIT4.5 (+108/-135)CHC4.5 (+102/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes5.5 (-105 / -113)15.5 (-108 / -110)Clay Holmes4.5 (+120 / -153)16.5 (+100 / -130)
Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W5.18724100
W5.18724100Sep 1 '26vs
W4.29548355
W4.29548355Aug 25 '26@
W6.08743000
W6.08743000Aug 19 '26vs
W4.18154433
W4.18154433Aug 11 '26@
L5.06545112
L5.06545112Clay Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L4.18026388
L4.18026388Aug 31 '26vs
W6.010185200
W6.010185200Aug 25 '26@
L7.09352200
L7.09352200Aug 19 '26vs
L5.18616211
L5.18616211Aug 14 '26vs
W6.28031100
W6.28031100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.56.04poor9.05.72.7(3)
at CHC5.00.00elite5.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25 '26vs
L5.1105116255
L5.1105116255May 28 '26vs
L5.1103104313
L5.1103104313Sep 16 '25vs
L3.29267333
L3.29267333Jun 13 '25@
W5.09554200
W5.09554200Clay Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.06.00poor4.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 14 '25vs
L6.09047144
L6.09047144home starts5.80.52elite4.04.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
W6.010185200
W6.010185200Aug 19 '26vs
L5.18616211
L5.18616211Aug 14 '26vs
W6.28031100
W6.28031100Trends · PIT
- PIT are 5-6 vs CHC this season (11 games).
- PIT are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 4-1 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 3.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.4 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 1-4 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 0-3 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 6-5 vs PIT this season (11 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 2-3 in Clay Holmes's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-1 in Clay Holmes's last 3 home starts.
- CHC average 5.4 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 6.7 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 3-2 to the over in Clay Holmes's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-2 to the over in Clay Holmes's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
86°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- PIT bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- PIT — Paul Skenes: 2026-09-01: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- CHC — Clay Holmes: 2026-09-06: 8 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 18); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- CHC — Clay Holmes: low-K outing 2026-09-06 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- CHC — Clay Holmes: recent opponents low-K: ARI 19%, MIA 19%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Skenes' overall last-3-start strikeout rate has fallen to just 3.3 per start, but he has punched out 10 and 11 batters in his last two meetings with this exact Cubs lineup, and those conflicting reads on the same prop leave no confident side to take. Holmes is average across the board and Chicago's own strikeout rate runs ahead of what its whiff rate supports, muddying his K prop too, while the side and total sit close to fair given two average-to-good starters facing two average offenses.
BAL @
TOR✓3:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
BAL @
TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Bradish R
xERA4.02 (avg)ERA6.08 (poor)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%18.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs90BB%12.3 (below)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+120 (above)K%17.9 (above)BB%5.8 (poor)Whiff%16.8 (elite)HH%40.7 (above)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)BB%8.5 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%38.9 (avg)
S. Arrighetti RO
xERA5.70 (poor)ERA8.03 (poor)K%15.5 (below)Whiff%24.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs77BB%10.3 (below)
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+90 (below)K%24.5 (below)BB%7.7 (below)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%23.5 (avg)BB%7.5 (below)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.89 (elite)ERA 3.00 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 2.03 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-105-1.5 (+155)O8.5 (+100)TOR-108+1.5 (-176)U8.5 (-113)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-132-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-118)TOR+106+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UBAL4.5 (+114/+116)TOR3.5 (-130/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Bradish3.5 (-148 / +118)16.5 (-130 / -101)S. Arrighetti——
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
L4.08532403
L4.08532403Sep 1 '26@
L5.09546222
L5.09546222Aug 26 '26@
W4.19149277
W4.19149277Aug 20 '26vs
L5.210058235
L5.210058235Aug 15 '26@
W6.09337422
W6.09337422S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L4.29136366
L4.29136366Sep 1 '26@
L3.2*6222122
L3.2*6222122Aug 27 '26vs
L4.07945234
L4.07945234Aug 21 '26@
L3.1*6143233
L3.1*6143233Jul 24 '26@
W1.03302233
W1.03302233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.54.09avg3.56.53.0(2)
at TOR4.011.25poor3.09.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 6 '26@
L4.08139355
L4.08139355May 31 '26vs
W7.09444301
W7.09444301S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.12.65elite4.03.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18 '26vs
L5.08561411
L5.08561411Aug 24 '25@
L5.29726022
L5.29726022home starts5.03.00good4.72.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs
L4.07945234
L4.07945234Jul 18 '26vs
L5.08561411
L5.08561411Jul 3 '26vs
L6.07342111
L6.07342111Trends · BAL
- BAL are 4-4 vs TOR this season (8 games).
- BAL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 2-3 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 3.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 4.6 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 4-4 vs BAL this season (8 games).
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 0-2 in S. Arrighetti's last 2 starts.
- TOR are 0-1 in S. Arrighetti's last 1 home starts.
- TOR average 1.5 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 2 starts.
- TOR average 2.0 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-1 to the over in S. Arrighetti's last 3 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph ESE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- OPENER: TOR start Spencer Miles (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.5 IP (longest 2.0)), with S. Arrighetti (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — BAL's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: Whiff% 24.5 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 15.5 shows
- BAL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- TOR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: 2026-08-26: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01, 2026-08-21
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: recent opponents low-K: KCR 15%, KCR 15%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Kyle Bradish Outs u16.5 (-101)
Bradish has gone 4.1, 5.0, and 4.0 innings in his last 3 starts, never within three outs of this 16.5 line, while walking batters at a 12.3% clip over that stretch that has repeatedly ballooned his pitch counts and ended outings early (91, 95, and 85 pitches for outings that short). Toronto's lineup hits for a strong 121 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6 games with a well-above-average 43.9% hard-hit rate, giving him little margin to work deep into a game he has consistently failed to reach even against weaker offenses. The market's own no-vig price still leans toward the over at 53%, which does not match a starter who has not cleared 15 outs in any of his last three outings.
LAA @
WSN4:05 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
LAA @
WSNMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Walbert Urena R
xERA3.67 (good)ERA2.41 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.2 (below)Barrel%5.8 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs91BB%8.2 (avg)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+48 (poor)K%27.5 (below)BB%9.2 (avg)Whiff%26.3 (below)HH%45.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+74 (poor)K%23.9 (avg)BB%9.3 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%41.3 (above)
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA3.45 (good)ERA3.60 (good)K%27.4 (good)Whiff%19.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.6 (good)Barrel%7.9 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs85BB%11.3 (below)
LAA vs LHP
L6
wRC+186 (elite)K%19.5 (above)BB%7.3 (below)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%54.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%23.1 (avg)BB%6.0 (poor)Whiff%25.1 (below)HH%47.1 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 4.76 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 4.50 (below)ERA 7.97 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA-102-1.5 (+164)O8.5 (+104)WSN-115+1.5 (-182)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+100+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-102)WSN-120-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (-140/+110)1.5 (-154/+120)WSN3.5 (-140/+112)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalbert Urena4.5 (-104 / -113)17.5 (-106 / -125)Andrew Alvarez5.5 (+124 / -156)14.5 (-130 / +107)
Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L8.08843111
L8.08843111Aug 31 '26vs
W7.09585011
W7.09585011Aug 25 '26vs
L3.28935533
L3.28935533Aug 19 '26@
L5.09473233
L5.09473233Aug 13 '26vs
W6.010052200
W6.010052200Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L4.17854233
L4.17854233Aug 30 '26vs
L6.09762300
L6.09762300Aug 25 '26vs
L4.28165233
L4.28165233Aug 20 '26@
L5.07554311
L5.07554311Aug 14 '26@
L5.27342122
L5.27342122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Alvarez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA—
home starts5.12.35elite4.73.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26vs
L6.09762300
L6.09762300Aug 25 '26vs
L4.28165233
L4.28165233Aug 8 '26vs
W5.17323111
W5.17323111Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 2-3 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-4 in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 3.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 2-3 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-2 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 3 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 0-5 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 1.8 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.2 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 1-4 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph ESE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- LAA — Walbert Urena: 2026-08-25: 3 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 8); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.21 ERA equivalent
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: last start: 78 pitches over 4.1 IP news ↗
AI Analysis
Los Angeles's offense is scorching against lefties at 188 wRC+ over its last 6 games, but the market's spread and moneyline already price in a substantial Angels edge, leaving little room beyond what's posted, and Washington's own home bullpen issues are already reflected in the total. Urena's and Alvarez's K and outs lines are already set in line with their recent form and neither has a track record against today's opponent to lean on for extra value.
SDP @
SFG4:05 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
SDP @
SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Michael King R
xERA3.95 (avg)ERA0.00 (elite)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%10.5 (below)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+85 (below)K%21.7 (avg)BB%7.0 (below)Whiff%23.0 (avg)HH%33.0 (below)
L12
wRC+117 (above)K%20.8 (avg)BB%11.0 (elite)Whiff%20.4 (above)HH%33.6 (below)
Cesar Perdomo L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SDP vs LHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%22.0 (avg)BB%11.9 (elite)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%43.6 (above)
L12
wRC+121 (above)K%21.4 (avg)BB%10.0 (above)Whiff%20.9 (above)HH%41.7 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.02 (elite)ERA 2.50 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 4.01 (avg)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-160-1.5 (+109)O8.0 (-110)SFG+136+1.5 (-125)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-152-0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-110)SFG+130+0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP4.5 (-104/-120)2.5 (+110/-140)SFG3.5 (+102/-130)1.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael King4.5 (-128 / +100)17.5 (-195 / +135)Cesar Perdomo3.5 (-140 / +120)15.5 (+125 / -167)
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W6.09634300
W6.09634300Aug 31 '26@
W6.09664300
W6.09664300Aug 25 '26vs
L7.09875200
L7.09875200Aug 19 '26@
L6.210044222
L6.210044222Aug 14 '26@
W6.08348134
W6.08348134Cesar Perdomo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L6.08343100
L6.08343100Sep 1 '26@
L4.0*5843111
L4.0*5843111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.21.73elite6.03.01.0(1)
at SFG—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 30 '25vs
W5.29163111
W5.29163111Trends · SDP
- SDP are 7-4 vs SFG this season (11 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have won 5 straight.
- SDP are 3-2 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 3.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.2 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 2-3 to the over in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Michael King's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-7 vs SDP this season (11 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 0-1 in Cesar Perdomo's last 1 starts.
- SFG average 2.0 runs/game in Cesar Perdomo's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Windy
67°F, Clear, Wind 19 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- SFG — Cesar Perdomo: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SDP bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- SFG bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- SFG — Cesar Perdomo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01
- WEATHER: wind Blowing Out 19 mph from the WNW
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)
AI Analysis
San Diego's bullpen has been dominant and their starter has posted a 0.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, but the market's moneyline and spread already reflect a big Padres advantage, and San Francisco's starter Perdomo has no stats this season to build a case around in any market. With the wind blowing out potentially aiding the total, San Diego's own last-6 offense is only average against lefties, and King's outs line at 17.5 already sits close to his recent workload, leaving no side of this card clearly mispriced.
KCR @
BOS✓4:10 PM · Fenway ParkNeutral Conditions
KCR @
BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.38 (avg)ERA5.00 (below)K%19.2 (avg)Whiff%18.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs87BB%4.1 (elite)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+103 (avg)K%23.7 (avg)BB%10.7 (above)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%33.6 (below)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)BB%8.4 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Ranger Suarez L
xERA3.92 (avg)ERA3.63 (good)K%11.8 (poor)Whiff%13.1 (below)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.8 (avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%9.2 (avg)
KCR vs LHP
L6
wRC+26 (poor)K%31.7 (poor)BB%24.4 (elite)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%5.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%25.6 (below)BB%12.4 (elite)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%33.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.38 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 4.05 (avg)ERA 5.49 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+160+1.5 (-131)O8.5 (-106)BOS-190-1.5 (+114)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+154+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-104)BOS-182-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (-102/-125)1.5 (-105/-125)BOS4.5 (-106/-105)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URandy Dobnak3.5 (-106 / -120)15.5 (+112 / -143)Ranger Suarez5.5 (+112 / -128)17.5 (-130 / -102)
Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W6.08334011
W6.08334011Sep 1 '26vs
L6.08767266
L6.08767266Aug 26 '26@
L6.09256133
L6.09256133Aug 20 '26vs
W4.09646400
W4.09646400Aug 15 '26@
L5.29364200
L5.29364200Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 4 '26@
W7.09135100
W7.09135100Aug 30 '26@
L5.110129266
L5.110129266Aug 24 '26@
W5.09344411
W5.09344411Aug 18 '26vs
W5.19334244
W5.19334244Aug 12 '26@
L5.08126111
L5.08126111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR4.12.20elite3.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 19 '26@
W4.18134311
W4.18134311home starts4.05.21below4.03.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18 '26vs
W5.19334244
W5.19334244Aug 6 '26vs
W3.07033234
W3.07033234Jul 26 '26vs
W4.06464000
W4.06464000Trends · KCR
- KCR are 1-3 vs BOS this season (4 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-3 in Randy Dobnak's last 4 away starts.
- KCR average 3.0 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 1.8 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 0-3 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-1 vs KCR this season (4 games).
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 5-0 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 3.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 7.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 3-2 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 10 mph ENE
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- KCR offense: K% 31.7 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 22.8 supports
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: 2026-09-01: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.00 ERA equivalent
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: recent opponents low-K: TOR 18%, MIA 19%, TOR 18%
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-08-30: 6 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: recent opponents high-K: MIA 28%, BAL 41%
Randy Dobnak Outs o15.5 (+112)
Dobnak has thrown exactly 6.0 innings in each of his last 3 starts, including the outing where he allowed 6 earned runs, showing his manager keeps him in regardless of results - a pattern that clears this 15.5 line by 2.5 outs every time it has come up recently. Boston's bullpen carries some scoring punch at home but Dobnak's low walk rate (4.1% BB over his last 3) keeps his pitch counts efficient, and nothing in his recent workload points to an early hook. The market prices the under as the favorite here at 56% no-vig despite a starter who has not failed to reach 18 outs in his last three tries.
CLE @
MIN4:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
CLE @
MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gavin Williams RO
xERA2.64 (elite)ERA4.40 (avg)K%45.0 (elite)Whiff%42.7 (elite)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%14.8 (below)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%8.3 (avg)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+99 (avg)K%18.5 (above)BB%9.2 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+118 (above)K%16.7 (above)BB%11.0 (elite)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%40.8 (above)
Connor Prielipp L
xERA2.84 (elite)ERA3.14 (good)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%26.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs14.3 IP/gsH/gs14.0PC/gs73BB%3.4 (elite)
CLE vs LHP
L6
wRC+38 (poor)K%17.7 (above)BB%1.3 (poor)Whiff%17.1 (elite)HH%25.4 (poor)
L12
wRC+71 (poor)K%18.1 (above)BB%5.6 (poor)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%29.6 (poor)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.29 (elite)ERA 1.76 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 3.42 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-108-1.5 (+151)O9.0 (+100)MIN-108+1.5 (-176)U9.0 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-112-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-122)MIN-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UCLE4.5 (+106/-130)MIN4.5 (+105/+116)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGavin Williams——Connor Prielipp4.5 (+120 / -148)14.5 (-120 / +120)
Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W6.099114322
W6.099114322Sep 1 '26vs
W7.097132101
W7.097132101Aug 25 '26@
W1.16236155
W1.16236155Aug 20 '26vs
W5.296114322
W5.296114322Aug 14 '26vs
L4.19157455
L4.19157455Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 7 '26@
L4.0*6855022
L4.0*6855022Sep 1 '26vs
W5.0*7353100
W5.0*7353100Aug 26 '26@
L5.17856133
L5.17856133Aug 21 '26@
L6.09678266
L6.09678266Aug 15 '26vs
L5.09468488
L5.09468488SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.73.15good9.35.00.7(3)
at MIN6.52.08elite8.52.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23 '26vs
L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 9 '26@
W7.0103113122
W7.0103113122May 10 '26vs
L6.0101610155
L6.0101610155May 21 '25@
W6.09862211
W6.09862211Connor Prielipp
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.03.60good6.04.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8 '26vs
W5.08364233
W5.08364233May 8 '26@
L5.09364214
L5.09364214home starts5.17.94poor5.55.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26vs
L5.09468488
L5.09468488Jul 26 '26vs
W5.27252111
W5.27252111Trends · CLE
- CLE are 5-6 vs MIN this season (11 games).
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 4-1 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 5.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 4.2 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 4-1 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-0 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 6-5 vs CLE this season (11 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 0-5 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 2.6 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.4 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 4-1 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-0 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Clear, Wind 13 mph NW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- OPENER: CLE start Daniel Espino (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.3 IP (longest 2.0)), with Gavin Williams (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — MIN's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-08-25: 5 ER in 1.1 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.50 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Gavin Williams: low-K outing 2026-08-25 (3 Ks vs avg 9.0 over his last 3)
- CLE — Gavin Williams: recent opponents high-K: LAA 31%, DET 29%
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: 17 days since last start (2026-08-26) news ↗
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-07, 2026-09-01
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: last start: 78 pitches over 5.1 IP news ↗
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: recent opponents low-K: PHI 18%, ATH 18%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
AI Analysis
Williams has been excellent as the bulk arm behind an opener and dominates Minnesota specifically with a 9.3 K/gs across 3 meetings this season, but Cleveland's own offense is ice cold against lefties at just 29 wRC+ over its last 6 games, and those two facts largely offset on the side and total. Prielipp's K and outs props already price in his own inflated recent ERA from tough matchups, and with no prop posted for Williams there's no clean way to isolate the mismatch that does exist.
LAD @
MIA4:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
LAD @
MIAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Glasnow R
xERA2.58 (elite)ERA4.00 (avg)K%29.6 (elite)Whiff%29.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%41.3 (below)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs90BB%5.6 (good)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+146 (elite)K%18.6 (above)BB%10.4 (above)Whiff%21.3 (avg)HH%46.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+138 (elite)K%20.1 (avg)BB%9.6 (above)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%41.0 (above)
Tyler Phillips R
xERA2.89 (elite)ERA2.45 (elite)K%24.6 (good)Whiff%27.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.7 (elite)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs76BB%10.5 (below)
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%21.4 (avg)BB%11.4 (elite)Whiff%17.8 (elite)HH%37.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)BB%11.2 (elite)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%39.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 2.77 (elite)ERA 3.82 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 5.66 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-195-1.5 (-106)O8.0 (-105)MIA+164+1.5 (-108)U7.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-192-0.5 (-128)O4.5 (+108)MIA+170+0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (-111/-115)2.5 (-105/-125)MIA3.5 (+120/+124)1.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Glasnow7.5 (+116 / -140)17.5 (-141 / +110)Tyler Phillips3.5 (-132 / +112)13.5 (-125 / -106)
Tyler Glasnow · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 5 '26vs
W6.09686344
W6.09686344Aug 30 '26@
W7.08562111
W7.08562111Aug 25 '26@
L5.08976033
L5.08976033May 6 '26@
W1.01921011
W1.01921011Apr 29 '26vs
L5.29293622
L5.29293622Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W5.07635133
W5.07635133Sep 1 '26@
W5.06941200
W5.06941200Aug 25 '26vs
L4.28473311
L4.28473311Aug 18 '26@
L2.0*4232211
L2.0*4232211Aug 13 '26vs
L5.19266144
L5.19266144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Glasnow
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.23.46good9.03.06.0(1)
at MIA—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 29 '26vs
L5.29293622
L5.29293622Tyler Phillips
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD—
home starts4.85.03below5.34.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W5.07635133
W5.07635133Aug 25 '26vs
L4.28473311
L4.28473311Aug 13 '26vs
L5.19266144
L5.19266144Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-2 vs MIA this season (4 games).
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD have won 8 straight.
- LAD are 3-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 5.8 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 6.2 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 1-2 to the over in Tyler Glasnow's last 3 starts.
- LAD are 0-2 to the over in Tyler Glasnow's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-2 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA have lost 4 straight.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 4.6 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 5.0 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 5-0 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-0 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- LAD offense: K% 21.4 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 17.8 supports
- LAD — Tyler Glasnow: recent opponents high-K: DET 29%, WSN 27%
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: last start: 76 pitches over 5.0 IP news ↗
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent opponents low-K: KCR 15%, CHC 19%
AI Analysis
Glasnow and Phillips have both been excellent recently and the moneyline already prices in a big Dodgers edge given Miami's shaky recent home form, leaving no extra value on the side, and the total sits close to fair given two strong recent arms. Glasnow's 7.5 strikeout line already asks for a near season-best outing and Phillips's short recent outings already match his modest outs number, so neither prop offers a clean mispricing.
HOU @
TBR6:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
HOU @
TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Peter Lambert R
xERA4.69 (below)ERA3.63 (good)K%21.5 (avg)Whiff%26.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%25.5 (elite)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs101BB%10.1 (below)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+143 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)BB%8.4 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%18.9 (above)BB%6.9 (below)Whiff%21.6 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Ian Seymour L
xERA3.03 (good)ERA5.40 (poor)K%26.2 (good)Whiff%28.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.9 (good)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs7.5 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs84BB%1.5 (elite)
HOU vs LHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%20.0 (avg)BB%7.1 (below)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%35.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+118 (above)K%20.1 (avg)BB%6.9 (below)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%34.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 3.50 (good)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 4.14 (avg)2d stress Fresh (3.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+123+1.5 (-164)O8.0 (-110)TBR-144-1.5 (+143)U7.5 (+104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+118+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (+108)TBR-145-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-135/+105)TBR4.5 (+122/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPeter Lambert4.5 (+126 / -146)16.5 (-121 / -109)Ian Seymour5.5 (-146 / +122)16.5 (-120 / -110)
Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
L7.09867033
L7.09867033Aug 31 '26vs
W4.210463522
W4.210463522Aug 26 '26@
L5.210257323
L5.210257323Aug 20 '26vs
L3.27938299
L3.27938299Aug 14 '26vs
W5.09664222
W5.09664222Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L3.07525134
L3.07525134Aug 31 '26vs
L6.188106033
L6.188106033Aug 25 '26@
L5.2*8857034
L5.2*8857034Aug 20 '26vs
L5.09086133
L5.09086133Aug 15 '26vs
L6.09396133
L6.09396133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.20.00elite6.03.01.0(1)
at TBR—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5 '26vs
W5.29063100
W5.29063100Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU—
home starts5.74.74below9.06.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
L6.188106033
L6.188106033Aug 20 '26vs
L5.09086133
L5.09086133Aug 15 '26vs
L6.09396133
L6.09396133Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-2 vs TBR this season (4 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 2-3 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 4.8 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 4-1 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-1 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 2 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 2-2 vs HOU this season (4 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 1-4 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-4 in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 3.2 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 2.8 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 0-5 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 0-3 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 5
- HOU bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
- TBR bullpen fresh (3.7 IP over 2g)
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-25
- TBR — Ian Seymour: last start: 75 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- TBR — Ian Seymour: low-K outing 2026-09-06 (2 Ks vs avg 6.7 over his last 3)
AI Analysis
Houston's offense has been hot against lefties at 126 wRC+ but Tampa Bay's own bats are even hotter against righties at 168 wRC+ over the last 6 games, and with both bullpens shaky the side and total already reflect a fairly even, high-variance game. Lambert's K and outs props sit close to his recent norms and Seymour's low-K last outing was a short abbreviated start rather than a stuff decline, leaving no clear mispricing on either prop.
CIN @
MIL7:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
CIN @
MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brady Singer R
xERA6.01 (poor)ERA7.80 (poor)K%17.3 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%59.6 (poor)Barrel%9.6 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs92BB%10.7 (below)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+162 (elite)K%24.3 (below)BB%13.9 (elite)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%47.8 (elite)
L12
wRC+145 (elite)K%25.5 (below)BB%11.7 (elite)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%47.6 (elite)
Kyle Harrison L
xERA8.12 (poor)ERA10.22 (poor)K%17.4 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%16.0 (poor)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs8.3PC/gs94BB%10.1 (below)
CIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+151 (elite)K%22.6 (avg)BB%11.9 (elite)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%43.6 (above)
L12
wRC+139 (elite)K%24.7 (below)BB%11.4 (elite)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%41.5 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 4.58 (below)ERA 7.18 (poor)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 4.05 (avg)ERA 5.03 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+160+1.5 (-134)O8.5 (-105)MIL-190-1.5 (+115)U8.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UCIN3.5 (-110/-120)MIL4.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrady Singer—15.5 (-125 / -115)Kyle Harrison——
Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W5.09734666
W5.09734666Aug 31 '26vs
L4.187510044
L4.187510044Aug 25 '26@
L5.29156233
L5.29156233Aug 20 '26vs
L6.010335144
L6.010335144Aug 15 '26vs
L6.09348233
L6.09348233Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L3.29349446
L3.29349446Aug 31 '26@
L3.298310299
L3.298310299Aug 25 '26@
L5.09056111
L5.09056111Aug 18 '26vs
W5.07982200
W5.07982200Aug 11 '26@
L4.290310338
L4.290310338SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.05.36poor5.03.73.0(3)
at MIL4.06.67poor6.07.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W5.09734666
W5.09734666Jun 22 '26vs
L7.010672200
L7.010672200Sep 28 '25@
L3.17155133
L3.17155133Apr 5 '25@
W5.09179135
W5.09179135Kyle Harrison
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN3.211.25poor4.09.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L3.29349446
L3.29349446home starts5.01.20elite9.02.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18 '26vs
W5.07982200
W5.07982200Aug 5 '26vs
W5.069101100
W5.069101100Jun 27 '26vs
L5.09293122
L5.09293122Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-8 vs MIL this season (11 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN have lost 4 straight.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Brady Singer's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 5.2 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 3.6 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 0-2 to the over in Brady Singer's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 8-3 vs CIN this season (11 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL have won 4 straight.
- MIL are 1-4 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 7.4 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 8.0 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WNW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- CIN bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
- TREND: CIN — was shut out 20-0 last time out (2026-09-11)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Both starters have been disastrous recently (Singer's 7.80 ERA and Harrison's 10.22 ERA) facing two offenses that are both hitting well against the opposing hand, which argues for a big number but the posted total of 8.5 already sits near the high end of what's reasonable given the extremity on both sides, and Cincinnati was just shut out 20-0 last time out which adds noise rather than a clean signal. Only one prop is posted (Singer's outs) and his short recent outings already match the line, leaving no mispriced angle on either arm.
PHI @
ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
PHI @
ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tim Mayza L
xERA2.34 (elite)ERA0.00 (elite)K%10.0 (poor)Whiff%17.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs3.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs13BB%0.0 (elite)
ATL vs LHP
L6
wRC+-16 (poor)K%33.3 (poor)BB%4.2 (poor)Whiff%33.0 (poor)HH%37.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+2 (poor)K%28.7 (poor)BB%5.3 (poor)Whiff%28.4 (poor)HH%29.5 (poor)
Tyler Mahle R
xERA3.23 (good)ERA1.02 (elite)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%27.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%44.2 (below)Barrel%1.9 (elite)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs92BB%4.2 (elite)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+73 (poor)K%26.4 (below)BB%5.7 (poor)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%45.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+57 (poor)K%23.2 (avg)BB%6.8 (below)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 3.98 (avg)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
ATL
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 2.58 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI+100-1.5 (+165)O7.5 (-114)ATL-118+1.5 (-189)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-116-0.5 (+122)O3.5 (-144)ATL+110+0.5 (-160)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-130/+100)ATL3.5 (-125/-102)1.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTim Mayza——Tyler Mahle4.5 (-114 / -104)16.5 (+106 / -130)
Tim Mayza · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 8 '26vs
L1.0*1500000
L1.0*1500000Sep 4 '26vs
L1.0*1001000
L1.0*1001000Aug 26 '26@
W1.0*1510000
W1.0*1510000Aug 23 '26vs
W1.1*2411100
W1.1*2411100Aug 21 '26vs
W0.2*1912000
W0.2*1912000Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
W6.09434102
W6.09434102Aug 30 '26vs
W6.28995011
W6.28995011Aug 23 '26@
W5.09446211
W5.09446211Aug 18 '26@
L6.27636122
L6.27636122Aug 12 '26vs
W6.09374011
W6.09374011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.42.78elite4.04.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
W6.09434102
W6.09434102Apr 28 '26@
L5.08236355
L5.08236355Apr 8 '26vs
W5.29463400
W5.29463400home starts6.10.99elite6.34.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26vs
W6.28995011
W6.28995011Aug 12 '26vs
W6.09374011
W6.09374011Jul 27 '26vs
W6.08833200
W6.08833200Trends · PHI
- PHI are 3-8 vs ATL this season (11 games).
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 1-4 in Tim Mayza's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 0-2 in Tim Mayza's last 2 away starts.
- PHI average 2.0 runs/game in Tim Mayza's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 1.5 runs/game in Tim Mayza's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 8-3 vs PHI this season (11 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-0 in Tyler Mahle's last 2 home starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.5 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-1 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- PHI — Tim Mayza: small sample: 3.0 IP over 3 starts
- PHI — Tim Mayza: Whiff% 17.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.0 shows
- PHI — Tim Mayza: 49 days since last start (2026-07-25) news ↗
- PHI — Tim Mayza: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-08, 2026-09-04
- PHI — Tim Mayza: last start: 20 pitches over 2.0 IP news ↗
- PHI — Tim Mayza: 2026-06-22: 1 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- PHI — Tim Mayza: recent opponents high-K: WSN 28%, NYM 27%
- ATL — Tyler Mahle: recent opponents high-K: COL 34%, PHI 26%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
PHI @ ATL F5 u3.5 (+110)
Luzardo carries a 0.40 ERA and 2.41 xERA over his last 3 starts, including a 9K/0ER shutout of this same Atlanta lineup 5 days ago, and Atlanta has been one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties at -30 wRC+ over its last 6 games and -12 over its last 12 - a rare case where both windows agree the weakness is real, not a blip. Mahle has been just as sharp on the other side, running a 1.05 ERA and 3.23 xERA over his last 3 with a scoreless 6IP start against Philadelphia six days ago, and Philadelphia's own bat is cold at 73 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP. With both starters missing bats and dominant recently and both lineups struggling against the specific hand they face today, a first-five total of 3.5 is priced too close to a coin flip for how suppressed this game profiles.
CHW @
STL7:15 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
CHW @
STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Luis Castillo RO
xERA4.94 (below)ERA11.81 (poor)K%11.9 (poor)Whiff%16.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%43.5 (below)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs78BB%6.8 (good)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+135 (elite)K%19.2 (above)BB%9.8 (above)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%46.7 (elite)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%19.8 (above)BB%8.6 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%44.2 (above)
Kyle Leahy R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%28.9 (poor)BB%10.2 (above)Whiff%27.9 (below)HH%44.4 (above)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%24.7 (below)BB%10.7 (above)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.57 (good)ERA 2.86 (elite)2d stress Stressed (11.0 IP/2g)
STL
xERA 4.63 (below)ERA 5.43 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+100-1.5 (+159)O8.5 (-104)STL-115+1.5 (-188)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+120+0.5 (-125)O4.5 (-114)STL-130-0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-140/+110)1.5 (-166/+130)STL3.5 (-150/+118)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULuis Castillo3.5 (-160 / +131)15.5 (+122 / -163)Kyle Leahy3.5 (-113 / -113)8.5 (-165 / +115)
Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 3 '26@
L4.07836266
L4.07836266Aug 28 '26@
W4.07518144
W4.07518144Aug 22 '26vs
L2.28038144
L2.28038144Aug 17 '26@
L4.29918134
L4.29918134Aug 12 '26vs
W7.0104101200
W7.0104101200Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
W2.25566055
W2.25566055Aug 29 '26vs
L3.05134111
L3.05134111Aug 23 '26@
L4.06342200
L4.06342200Aug 18 '26@
W5.09063000
W5.09063000Aug 12 '26vs
W5.08166011
W5.08166011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW—
home starts4.32.77elite5.76.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs
L3.05134111
L3.05134111Aug 12 '26vs
W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7 '26vs
W5.08288022
W5.08288022Trends · CHW
- CHW are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW have lost 4 straight.
- CHW are 2-3 in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-3 in Luis Castillo's last 4 away starts.
- CHW average 4.8 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 6.2 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 to the over in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Luis Castillo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 5.2 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.4 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 0-3 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 6 mph W
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 10
- OPENER: CHW start Sean Newcomb (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 2.2 IP (longest 3.0)), with Luis Castillo (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — STL's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- CHW — Luis Castillo: avg 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3
- STL — Kyle Leahy: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CHW bullpen stressed (11.0 IP over 2g)
- STL bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- CHW — Luis Castillo: last start: 78 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
- CHW — Luis Castillo: recent opponents low-K: NYM 16%, MIN 18%
- STL — Kyle Leahy: last start: 55 pitches over 2.2 IP news ↗
- STL — Kyle Leahy: 2026-09-06: 5 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 20); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.50 ERA equivalent
- STL — Kyle Leahy: recent opponents high-K: PHI 26%, COL 34%
AI Analysis
St. Louis's offense is red-hot against right-handers at 133 wRC+ over its last 6 games and Castillo has been getting shelled to an 11.81 ERA in this bulk role, but the market's team total and side prices already reflect that gap heavily, leaving little room for extra value. Castillo's own outs and K lines are already set low to match his short recent outings, and Leahy has no track record this season to build a prop case around, so both pitcher markets are avoided.
TEX @
ARI8:10 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
TEX @
ARIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kumar Rocker R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA5.93 (poor)K%27.7 (good)Whiff%26.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs84BB%10.8 (below)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+112 (avg)K%18.5 (above)BB%9.3 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+83 (below)K%21.8 (avg)BB%9.2 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%31.3 (below)
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA4.38 (avg)ERA4.26 (avg)K%10.1 (poor)Whiff%17.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%29.2 (elite)Barrel%9.2 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%6.3 (good)
TEX vs RHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%30.2 (poor)BB%10.5 (above)Whiff%29.8 (poor)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%24.5 (below)BB%10.7 (above)Whiff%27.2 (below)HH%38.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 5.62 (poor)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 2.67 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+124+1.5 (-176)O8.5 (-115)ARI-140-1.5 (+146)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+106+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-135)ARI-125-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (-138/+114)1.5 (-154/+120)ARI4.5 (-102/-125)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker3.5 (-140 / +111)15.5 (+125 / -167)Brandon Pfaadt4.5 (+115 / +128)17.5 (-143 / +108)
Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 4 '26vs
L5.0*7339056
L5.0*7339056Aug 30 '26@
W3.08674422
W3.08674422Aug 24 '26@
W5.29385322
W5.29385322Aug 19 '26vs
L5.09236122
L5.09236122Aug 14 '26@
L5.09434533
L5.09434533Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 5 '26@
W6.19347233
W6.19347233Aug 31 '26vs
L6.08715122
L6.08715122Aug 25 '26vs
W6.210336244
W6.210336244Aug 19 '26@
W5.29487055
W5.29487055Aug 14 '26@
W7.08772000
W7.08772000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.00.00elite3.03.04.0(1)
at ARI—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 13 '26vs
W5.09733400
W5.09733400Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX—
home starts6.42.81elite2.04.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26vs
L6.08715122
L6.08715122Aug 25 '26vs
W6.210336244
W6.210336244Aug 8 '26vs
L7.09322200
L7.09322200Trends · TEX
- TEX are 2-2 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 5.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 5.4 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 4-1 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-0 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-2 vs TEX this season (4 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 3.8 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 3.4 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 2-3 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: Whiff% 17.8 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.1 shows
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 13 days since last start (2026-08-30) news ↗
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-04
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent opponents high-K: WSN 27%, CHW 29%
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent opponents high-K: PHI 26%, HOU 25%
AI Analysis
Rocker's ERA looks rough but his xERA is much better, and Pfaadt's low strikeout rate is offset by an unusually high whiff rate that could push his K number up - both starters have red flags that roughly cancel, and the total, side and run lines already sit close to fair given a below-average Arizona offense and a below-average Texas offense. Rocker's own strikeout and outs props are muddied by 13 days of rest and a recent bullpen appearance that clouds how long he goes, and Pfaadt's outs number already sits where his recent workload points, leaving no clear mispricing on either arm.
SEA @
ATH9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
SEA @
ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.19 (good)ERA3.50 (good)K%30.0 (elite)Whiff%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs92BB%5.7 (good)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+71 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)BB%6.1 (poor)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%32.6 (below)
L12
wRC+99 (avg)K%22.8 (avg)BB%6.8 (below)Whiff%22.2 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Gage Jump L
xERA4.15 (avg)ERA6.75 (poor)K%28.1 (elite)Whiff%30.7 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%14.6 (below)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%7.8 (avg)
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+57 (poor)K%21.4 (avg)BB%7.7 (below)Whiff%17.6 (elite)HH%35.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+70 (poor)K%22.2 (avg)BB%8.2 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (above)HH%31.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.38 (avg)ERA 5.90 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
ATH
xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 2.42 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-170-1.5 (-110)O9.5 (-110)ATH+150+1.5 (-104)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-175-0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-146)ATH+148+0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA5.5 (-106/-120)2.5 (-125/-105)ATH3.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryan Woo5.5 (-104 / -119)17.5 (-175 / +131)Gage Jump5.5 (+124 / -157)15.5 (+138 / -184)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W8.010291200
W8.010291200Sep 1 '26@
W6.09975112
W6.09975112Aug 26 '26vs
L4.07655166
L4.07655166Aug 16 '26@
W6.07553122
W6.07553122Aug 11 '26@
L5.09253100
L5.09253100Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L4.08276022
L4.08276022Aug 31 '26@
L4.19126377
L4.19126377Aug 25 '26vs
W6.19493222
W6.19493222Aug 20 '26@
L4.08638355
L4.08638355Aug 14 '26vs
W5.110113433
W5.110113433SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH7.02.56elite7.33.31.7(3)
at ATH6.07.44poor6.08.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26vs
W8.010291200
W8.010291200Aug 22 '25vs
W7.08871211
W7.08871211Jul 30 '25@
L6.18468155
L6.18468155May 7 '25@
W6.010068155
W6.010068155Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.56.00poor6.07.50.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 6 '26@
L4.08276022
L4.08276022May 26 '26vs
L5.08859144
L5.08859144home starts4.86.88poor5.03.34.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26vs
W6.19493222
W6.19493222Aug 14 '26vs
W5.110113433
W5.110113433Aug 2 '26vs
L3.28854666
L3.28854666Trends · SEA
- SEA are 5-6 vs ATH this season (11 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 3.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 3.2 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 1-4 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-2 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 6-5 vs SEA this season (11 games).
- ATH are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 3-2 in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 3.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 to the over in Gage Jump's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Clear, Wind 14 mph SW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- SEA offense: K% 21.4 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 17.6 supports
- ATH bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- SEA — Bryan Woo: last start: 102 pitches over 8.0 IP news ↗
- SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-08-26: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.75 ERA equivalent
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-08-31: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.73 ERA equivalent
- ATH — Gage Jump: low-K outing 2026-08-31 (2 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
AI Analysis
Woo has been outstanding and Jump has been erratic, but both clubs' hitters were shut down by the opposing pitcher's own recent domination and just played each other six days ago, which cuts against expecting either arm's recent shutdown performance to simply repeat. Woo's strikeout and outs numbers already sit near his recent production and the market already leans toward the under on Jump's props reflecting his short recent outings, leaving no side of either pitcher's line clearly out of step with the evidence.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.BB%Share of batters faced walked.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.