AI Picks · 17 Bets · Jun 25
HOU @ DET u9.0 (-112)
Troy Melton is genuinely elite (xERA 2.98, recent ERA 1.78 over 3 starts) going deep (6.3 IP/gs) with one of the best bullpens in baseball backing him (DET xERA 2.45, ERA 1.52 — elite). Tatsuya Imai has a massive ERA/xERA gap (7.71 ERA vs 2.82 xERA) suggesting bad luck — his recent ERA of 2.12 (last 3 starts, excluding the skewed outlier) reflects his true elite-level talent. Both starters have strong xERAs sub-3.00. HOU bullpen is also solid (xERA 3.30). The 9.0 total is generous for a game with two elite-xERA pitchers both in good recent form and two of the best bullpens on today's slate. Both offenses are dangerous (HOU 124, DET 120 wRC+) but these pitchers have been suppressing offenses effectively.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
HOU @ DET u8.5 (+100)
Two elite pitchers by xERA: Imai at 2.82 and Melton at 2.98, with Melton in HOT form (recent ERA 1.78). Imai's inflated season ERA (7.71) is dramatically above his xERA — he's been unlucky, not actually bad. The flag about the 0.2 IP disaster skewing his ERA confirms this. His recent ERA of 2.12 in his last 3 (ignoring the one bad outing) shows he's pitching well now. Both bullpens are strong: DET xERA 2.99 is elite, HOU xERA 3.42 is solid. DET has an elite offense (wRC+ 135) which gives pause, but Imai's recent form has held up against quality lineups (8K vs ATH). Getting +100 on the Under 8.5 with two elite xERA arms and two strong bullpens is good value.
Found at 2:13 PM ET
PHI -1.5 (+101)
C. Sanchez is on a historic run (recent ERA 1.29 over 3 starts, all 7.0 IP outings) with a great track record vs WSN specifically (2.67 ERA, 5.0 IP/gs). PHI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 146 in L12), giving a strong compound edge. Cavalli is improving recently (3.94 ERA in last 3) but his xERA 6.66 is poor and PHI historically handles him. The +101 line for PHI -1.5 is exceptional value — getting plus money on a heavy favorite's run line, driven by the Sanchez edge and dominant PHI offense. Both bullpens are average-to-below which doesn't hurt this spread play (Sanchez eats 7 innings anyway). PHI 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts; WSN just 2-3 at home in Cavalli's last 5.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
C. Sanchez Ks o6.5 (+102)
Sanchez is in elite form (recent ERA 1.29, averaging 9.0 K/start in last 3); his xERA is 3.16 with a 24.0 K%; WSN vs LHP has a 25.0 K% — one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball, which is BETTER than the high-K TOR/MIL teams he just dominated; Sanchez has 6.5 K/gs historical vs WSN; he's averaging 6.2 IP/gs and has been going 7 full innings in each of his last 3 starts with 97-107 pitch counts, so he'll have the innings to accumulate Ks; the adjusted K expectation (~8-9) is well above the 6.5 line; +102 offers genuine value.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
NYY @ BOS u8.0 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup: Schlittler xERA 2.76 (season ERA 0.96 << xERA, but still elite) with a dominant recent history vs BOS (1.36 ERA, 6.6 IP/gs in 2 starts, 1.12 ERA at Fenway). Connelly Early is genuinely good (xERA 3.10, recent ERA 3.31 trending toward his true talent), with a strong 7.0 IP/0 ER outing just last time. Both bullpens are strong: NYY 3.51 xERA, BOS 2.71 xERA — best pen combo of the entire slate, which protects the low number all 9 innings. BOS offense vs RHP is cold (wRC+ 94 in L12) against an elite pitcher dominating them specifically. NYY vs LHP is average (114 wRC+). STL run-support trends are irrelevant here — BOS averages just 4.0 RS in Early's starts. The 8.0 total is a fair market number with real under edge given both starter quality and elite bullpen support.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
NYY -1.5 (+120)
Cam Schlittler has an elite xERA 2.76, and his matchup history vs BOS is outstanding (1.36 ERA, 6.6 IP/gs over 2 starts including a 1.12 ERA / 8.0 IP at this very park). NYY is 4-1 in his last 5 starts with 6.6 RS avg, and 4-1 on the road. Connelly Early struggles at home (5.52 ERA in last 3 home starts) and vs NYY (5.29 ERA). BOS offense is below average in L12 (wRC+ 94). NYY bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.51, ERA 3.00) and BOS bullpen is also solid (xERA 2.71), meaning the pitching edge for NYY is not eroded by pen risk. Getting NYY -1.5 at +120 is excellent value — essentially being paid to take the better team with the better pitcher in a favorable matchup.
Found at 12:51 PM ET
Cam Schlittler Ks o6.5
Schlittler is one of the best strikeout arms in the AL right now — 33.8% K rate, xERA 2.76, season ERA 0.96. He has gone 9, 10, 9, 7, 7 Ks in his last 5 starts, clearing 6.5 in 4 of 5. The BOS matchup is specifically favorable: he already struck out 9 BOS hitters on Jun 7 at Fenway and carries a 1.36 ERA / 6.6 IP/gs in 2 career starts vs BOS — deep outings mean he gets enough innings to accumulate. BOS wRC+ vs RHP is 94 in L12 (cold offense). The 6.5 line is a low bar for a pitcher whose floor in this form is 7.
Found at 7:00 AM ET
NYY @ BOS u7.5 (+100)
Elite pitching matchup with strong bullpen backing. Schlittler carries an elite xERA of 2.76 and has a 1.36 ERA / 1.12 ERA in prior starts vs BOS and at Fenway specifically — the matchup history is outstanding. Early's xERA is solid at 3.10 (season ERA 5.28 is above xERA, indicating bad luck — real skill is better than it looks). Both offenses are average-to-below: NYY wRC+ 113 vs LHP, BOS wRC+ 86 vs RHP. BOS bullpen is elite (xERA 2.58), NYY pen is solid (xERA 3.81). Neutral park (APF 104) and calm weather. Getting +100 on the Under 7.5 with two quality pitchers and strong pens is excellent value — the market appears to be weighting Early's inflated ERA without adjusting for his xERA.
Found at 2:13 PM ET
ARI @ STL o9.0 (-105)
Strong over case: Zac Gallen is in acute collapse (recent ERA 7.75 vs xERA 5.38 — both signal runs, 9.39 season ERA), McGreevy has a sketchy xERA (4.78) with a bad start recently and a 10.2% barrel rate; STL offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 138, 45.4 HH%); ARI offense is average but STL bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.64, ERA 6.69 — a disqualifying-level pen meaning runs WILL come after 5); both starters average <6 IP/gs, so both shaky pens will see a lot of action; Gallen has a 6.92 ERA in his only career start at Busch Stadium; combined signals strongly favor runs well exceeding 9 on this total.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
STL Team Total o(estimate ~4.5) (-110)
STL's elite offense (wRC+ 140, HH% 45%) faces a Gallen who has given up 13 ER in his last 3 starts (recent ERA 7.75) and has a 6.92 ERA in his only career start at this park vs this opponent. Wind blowing out 23mph amplifies the damage. This is a pure offensive edge against a demonstrably struggling starter.
Found at 2:13 PM ET
HOU @ DET u8.0 (-105)
Troy Melton is HOT — recent ERA 1.78, xERA 2.98 (elite), going deep (8.0, 7.0, 5.2 IP recently). Tatsuya Imai's season ERA 7.71 vs xERA 2.82 is a massive luck-negative gap — he's been unlucky and his recent ERA 2.12 confirms the real skill is asserting. Both starters are genuinely elite by xERA. DET bullpen is extraordinary (xERA 2.45, ERA 1.52), and HOU's pen is solid (xERA 3.30). The note flags Imai's short outings (avg 3.9 IP/gs), but his recent 5-6 IP starts show he's stretching out. Neither offense is cold, but at 8.0 (not 8.5), this line leaves more room. Combined with two elite xERAs, two strong pens, and no weather/park concerns (APF 103), there's enough signal for an under.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
NYY @ BOS u8.5 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup with both starters showing strong underlying metrics. Schlittler has xERA 2.76 (elite) and owns BOS (1.36 ERA in 2 matchup starts, 1.12 ERA at Fenway). Early carries xERA 3.10 (good) with a 7-inning shutout in his most recent strong start. Both bullpens are excellent — NYY xERA 3.51, BOS xERA 2.71 — meaning neither pen will blow the game open after the starters exit. BOS offense is cold at wRC+ 94 vs RHP, and NYY is only avg vs LHP at 114. Fenway APF 104 is modest. Combined run trends are modest: BOS averaging 4.0 RS in Early's starts, NYY averaging 6.6 but against a weaker opposing pitcher. With two quality arms, two strong pens, and a cold BOS offense, 8.5 is beatable.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
Cam Schlittler o3.5 Ks (-130)
Schlittler's K% is elite at 33.8% and his matchup history vs BOS shows 5.0 K/gs. BOS vs RHP has a 22.1% K rate (solid). His recent avg is 4.7 K/start. Line of 3.5 appears undervalued given his K% and the 6.2 IP/gs average. The -130 price is at the edge of acceptable; the adjusted expectation of ~4.5-5 Ks well exceeds the 3.5 line, but caution on the price.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
Line Warning: If -130 juice is too steep, target a different prop or pass this market — the K rate supports the over but the price is tight.
Games In Progress / Completed
SEA @ PIT u8.5 (-115)
Bryce Miller is elite: xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 in last 3 starts (17 IP, 0 ER), K% 37.1 — he is completely locked in right now. SEA bullpen xERA 2.40 is the best in the entire slate and will protect the number. SEA offense is poor (wRC+ 74 vs RHP in L12, worst of all teams today). Chandler has been struggling recently (7.20 recent ERA) but his xERA 2.83 and strikeout profile suggest regression toward true talent; the flag about the skewing start is noted, and his other recent outings show upward trajectory. PIT offense at 134 wRC+ is dangerous but Miller is so dominant that this doesn't concern greatly. The 8.5 total requires both sides to get to 5+ runs each — Miller's 0.00 ERA over 17 recent innings makes that nearly impossible on the SEA side, and SEA's elite bullpen suppresses PIT. PNC Park is neutral (APF 100).
Found at 11:38 AM ET
SEA @ PIT F5 u4.5 (-122)
Bryce Miller is historically elite (xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 over last 3 starts, 37.1 K%, 1.42 season ERA); SEA offense is very cold (wRC+ 74 L12, worst in this slate) facing Chandler who despite recent struggles has a 2.83 xERA; the first 5 innings are dominated by two starters with strong suppression profiles, limiting the F5 total; both teams combined score <4.5 in the first 5 innings is very plausible with Miller elite and SEA offense ice-cold; limiting to F5 avoids the shaky Chandler bullpen exposure and the risk of both bullpens inflating the full-game total.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
Bryce Miller Ks o5.5 (+110)
Miller leads the majors in K rate at 37.1% and his xERA of 2.30 is elite. He has posted 7, 6, 9, 9, 7 Ks in his last 5 starts — over 5.5 in all five. He averages 6.3 IP/gs so he routinely has enough innings to rack up Ks. PIT's K% vs RHP is elevated and they do not make easy contact. Getting +110 on a pitcher who has cleared 5.5 in every recent start is exceptional value — the market is underpricing him because the line sits low enough that even a slightly off outing still cashes.
Found at 7:00 AM ET
Bryce Miller Ks o(target 7.5 or 8.5 — take best available line) (-110)
Miller is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball right now: xERA 2.30, K% 37.1, recent ERA 0.95 HOT. He's averaging 7.3 K/start in his recent 3. PIT has a 23.8 K% vs RHP — a high-K lineup that plays right into Miller's strengths. His one prior start vs PIT yielded 9 Ks in 5 IP (albeit with 5 ER that day). Flags about low pitch count last start (66) are concerning for outs total, but K props depend on rate not just volume — and 37.1 K% means even 5 innings = ~6-7 Ks easily. If the line is at 7.5 or below, this is a strong play given PIT's K rate. Caveat: short outing risk is real, so prefer lower line.
Found at 2:13 PM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
KCR @ 
TBR12:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
KCR @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Seth Lugo R
xERA5.24 (below avg)K%10.3 (poor)HH%46.8 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA4.40IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs73BB%8.6
TBR vs RHP
wRC+125 (above avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Ian Seymour L
xERA3.08 (good)K%23.1 (good)HH%41.2 (below avg)Barrel%8.8 (avg)ERA4.38IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs81BB%7.7
KCR vs LHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%19.8 (above avg)HH%46.5 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+120+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-105)TBR-136-1.5 (+164)U8.5 (-114)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25@ L5.09037277
L5.09037277Jun 19vs 
W6.08505312
W6.08505312Jun 10vs 
L3.14423111
L3.14423111Jun 4@ 
W5.09246155
W5.09246155May 30@ L6.09066013
L6.09066013Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25vs W6.2*9070100
W6.2*9070100Jun 20vs 
L5.08147033
L5.08147033Jun 14@ 
W3.1*7232322
W3.1*7232322Jun 8vs 
W4.05551111
W4.05551111Jun 2vs 
L2.0*4012333
L2.0*4012333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.57.364.06.01.0(2)
at TBR5.57.364.06.01.0(2)
Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts4.54.004.54.00.5(2)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-2 vs TBR this season (4 games).
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 3-2 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 6.4 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 4.6 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 2-2 vs KCR this season (4 games).
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-1 in Ian Seymour's last 3 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 in Ian Seymour's last 3 home starts.
- TBR average 4.3 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 3 starts.
- TBR average 4.3 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.14 (avg)ERA 4.502d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 5.442d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 5
- KCR — Seth Lugo: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- KCR — Seth Lugo: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR — Seth Lugo: 2026-06-04: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- KCR — Seth Lugo: recent opponents low-K: MIN 14%, STL 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-14, 2026-06-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
Lugo has a terrible xERA (5.24) and HH%/Barrel% combination against TBR (7.36 ERA historically) but Seymour's recent pitch count concerns (short outings, bullpen appearances) and both offenses being above-average creates an unclear total direction; the 8.5 total seems fairly priced without a clean lean.
SEA @ 
PIT✓12:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
SEA @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Miller R
xERA2.30 (elite)K%37.1 (elite)HH%32.4 (good)Barrel%8.1 (avg)ERA1.42IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs82BB%3.2
PIT vs RHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%23.8 (avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Bubba Chandler R
xERA2.83 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA3.18IP/gs8.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs78BB%7.3
SEA vs RHP
wRC+69 (poor)K%23.8 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-138-1.5 (+126)O8.5 (-108)PIT+120+1.5 (-143)U8.5 (-105)
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25@ L5.290115033
L5.290115033Jun 19vs L5.06673011
L5.06673011Jun 12@ W8.09174022
W8.09174022Jun 6@ W6.09491200
W6.09491200May 31vs 
W5.07161100
W5.07161100Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25vs W5.17545311
W5.17545311Jun 19@ 
L6.07416222
L6.07416222Jun 13vs 
W5.28463122
W5.28463122Jun 7@ 
L5.1*8871223
L5.1*8871223Jun 2@ 
W5.09136244
W5.09136244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryce Miller
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.25.1911.05.00.0(1)
at PIT5.25.1911.05.00.0(1)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.11.764.05.03.0(1)
home starts5.14.125.05.32.0(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-2 vs PIT this season (3 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-1 in Bryce Miller's last 3 away starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.7 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-1 vs SEA this season (3 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 4.4 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.2 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 2.53 (elite)ERA 4.682d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 5.112d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 11 mph SW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- SEA — Bryce Miller: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SEA — Bryce Miller: last start: 66 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — Bubba Chandler: 2026-06-02: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SEA @ PIT u8.5 (-115)
Bryce Miller is elite: xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 in last 3 starts (17 IP, 0 ER), K% 37.1 — he is completely locked in right now. SEA bullpen xERA 2.40 is the best in the entire slate and will protect the number. SEA offense is poor (wRC+ 74 vs RHP in L12, worst of all teams today). Chandler has been struggling recently (7.20 recent ERA) but his xERA 2.83 and strikeout profile suggest regression toward true talent; the flag about the skewing start is noted, and his other recent outings show upward trajectory. PIT offense at 134 wRC+ is dangerous but Miller is so dominant that this doesn't concern greatly. The 8.5 total requires both sides to get to 5+ runs each — Miller's 0.00 ERA over 17 recent innings makes that nearly impossible on the SEA side, and SEA's elite bullpen suppresses PIT. PNC Park is neutral (APF 100).
SEA @ PIT F5 u4.5 (-122)
Bryce Miller is historically elite (xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 over last 3 starts, 37.1 K%, 1.42 season ERA); SEA offense is very cold (wRC+ 74 L12, worst in this slate) facing Chandler who despite recent struggles has a 2.83 xERA; the first 5 innings are dominated by two starters with strong suppression profiles, limiting the F5 total; both teams combined score <4.5 in the first 5 innings is very plausible with Miller elite and SEA offense ice-cold; limiting to F5 avoids the shaky Chandler bullpen exposure and the risk of both bullpens inflating the full-game total.
Bryce Miller Ks o5.5 (+110)
Miller leads the majors in K rate at 37.1% and his xERA of 2.30 is elite. He has posted 7, 6, 9, 9, 7 Ks in his last 5 starts — over 5.5 in all five. He averages 6.3 IP/gs so he routinely has enough innings to rack up Ks. PIT's K% vs RHP is elevated and they do not make easy contact. Getting +110 on a pitcher who has cleared 5.5 in every recent start is exceptional value — the market is underpricing him because the line sits low enough that even a slightly off outing still cashes.
Bryce Miller Ks o(target 7.5 or 8.5 — take best available line) (-110)
Miller is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball right now: xERA 2.30, K% 37.1, recent ERA 0.95 HOT. He's averaging 7.3 K/start in his recent 3. PIT has a 23.8 K% vs RHP — a high-K lineup that plays right into Miller's strengths. His one prior start vs PIT yielded 9 Ks in 5 IP (albeit with 5 ER that day). Flags about low pitch count last start (66) are concerning for outs total, but K props depend on rate not just volume — and 37.1 K% means even 5 innings = ~6-7 Ks easily. If the line is at 7.5 or below, this is a strong play given PIT's K rate. Caveat: short outing risk is real, so prefer lower line.
ATH @ 
SFG3:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
ATH @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jeffrey Springs L
xERA5.64 (poor)K%19.1 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA12.08IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs83BB%9.5
SFG vs LHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%19.6 (above avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Landen Roupp R
xERA2.84 (elite)K%25.4 (good)HH%29.5 (elite)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.86IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs104BB%9.0
ATH vs RHP
wRC+150 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)HH%36.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+113+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-115)SFG-130-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (+100)
Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25@ L5.18763233
L5.18763233Jun 19vs W3.28644466
W3.28644466Jun 14vs L4.07757068
L4.07757068Jun 8vs 
L5.09938255
L5.09938255Jun 3@ 
W3.28637144
W3.28637144Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25vs W6.010866122
W6.010866122Jun 19@ L6.09877122
L6.09877122Jun 12vs L4.210554244
L4.210554244Jun 6@ L5.29853311
L5.29853311Jun 1@ L4.09648588
L4.09648588SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jeffrey Springs
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.82.604.73.31.0(3)
at SFG5.73.195.52.51.0(2)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH6.01.505.55.51.5(2)
home starts5.14.746.05.71.3(3)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 1-4 vs SFG this season (5 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 4 straight.
- ATH are 2-3 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-3 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 away starts.
- ATH average 8.2 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 3.0 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 4-1 vs ATH this season (5 games).
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 0-5 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 2-3 in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 2.0 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.0 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 7.142d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 4.78 (below avg)ERA 4.662d stress Fresh (4.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
62°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 12 mph WSW
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- SFG bullpen fresh (4.3 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, LAA 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- SFG — Landen Roupp: 2026-06-12: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Springs is an extreme avoid (ERA 12.08, recent ERA 11.07, xERA 5.64) but Roupp's matchup history vs ATH is strong (1.50 ERA in 2gs) and his recent ERA 8.73 is skewed by one blowup start — too many conflicting signals on both sides to find a clean edge; ATH offense is elite (wRC+ 150) but SFG offense is also above avg, and the total at 8.5 already prices in the Springs disaster.
HOU @ DET✓6:40 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
HOU @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tatsuya Imai R
xERA2.82 (elite)K%36.4 (elite)HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA7.71IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs73BB%7.3
DET vs RHP
wRC+135 (elite)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
Troy Melton R
xERA2.98 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA3.32IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%6.7
HOU vs RHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%41.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+104-1.5 (+160)O8.5 (-115)DET-112-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (+100)
Tatsuya Imai · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19vs 
W6.089116033
W6.089116033Jun 12@ W0.23814155
W0.23814155Jun 6vs W5.09285322
W5.09285322May 31vs L6.011053222
L6.011053222May 25@ W6.09720400
W6.09720400Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs 
W6.08451311
W6.08451311Jun 9vs W5.08858044
W5.08858044Jun 3@ W8.09454222
W8.09454222May 29@ L7.08916111
L7.08916111May 24@ 
W5.27932311
W5.27932311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU—
home starts5.54.095.04.51.5(2)
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-1 vs DET this season (3 games).
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 4-1 in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 8.2 runs/game in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 7.8 runs/game in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 1-2 vs HOU this season (3 games).
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-0 in Troy Melton's last 2 home starts.
- DET average 5.6 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 7.0 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.42 (good)ERA 3.332d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 2.99 (elite)ERA 1.912d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph WSW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- HOU bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: 2026-06-12: 5 ER in 0.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: low-K outing 2026-06-12 (1 Ks vs avg 6.7) — stuff was flat that day
- DET — Troy Melton: 2026-06-09: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
HOU @ DET u9.0 (-112)
Troy Melton is genuinely elite (xERA 2.98, recent ERA 1.78 over 3 starts) going deep (6.3 IP/gs) with one of the best bullpens in baseball backing him (DET xERA 2.45, ERA 1.52 — elite). Tatsuya Imai has a massive ERA/xERA gap (7.71 ERA vs 2.82 xERA) suggesting bad luck — his recent ERA of 2.12 (last 3 starts, excluding the skewed outlier) reflects his true elite-level talent. Both starters have strong xERAs sub-3.00. HOU bullpen is also solid (xERA 3.30). The 9.0 total is generous for a game with two elite-xERA pitchers both in good recent form and two of the best bullpens on today's slate. Both offenses are dangerous (HOU 124, DET 120 wRC+) but these pitchers have been suppressing offenses effectively.
HOU @ DET u8.5 (+100)
Two elite pitchers by xERA: Imai at 2.82 and Melton at 2.98, with Melton in HOT form (recent ERA 1.78). Imai's inflated season ERA (7.71) is dramatically above his xERA — he's been unlucky, not actually bad. The flag about the 0.2 IP disaster skewing his ERA confirms this. His recent ERA of 2.12 in his last 3 (ignoring the one bad outing) shows he's pitching well now. Both bullpens are strong: DET xERA 2.99 is elite, HOU xERA 3.42 is solid. DET has an elite offense (wRC+ 135) which gives pause, but Imai's recent form has held up against quality lineups (8K vs ATH). Getting +100 on the Under 8.5 with two elite xERA arms and two strong bullpens is good value.
HOU @ DET u8.0 (-105)
Troy Melton is HOT — recent ERA 1.78, xERA 2.98 (elite), going deep (8.0, 7.0, 5.2 IP recently). Tatsuya Imai's season ERA 7.71 vs xERA 2.82 is a massive luck-negative gap — he's been unlucky and his recent ERA 2.12 confirms the real skill is asserting. Both starters are genuinely elite by xERA. DET bullpen is extraordinary (xERA 2.45, ERA 1.52), and HOU's pen is solid (xERA 3.30). The note flags Imai's short outings (avg 3.9 IP/gs), but his recent 5-6 IP starts show he's stretching out. Neither offense is cold, but at 8.0 (not 8.5), this line leaves more room. Combined with two elite xERAs, two strong pens, and no weather/park concerns (APF 103), there's enough signal for an under.
PHI @ WSN✓6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
PHI @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
C. Sanchez L
xERA3.16 (good)K%24.0 (good)HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%13.0 (below avg)ERA3.38IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs99BB%4.0
WSN vs LHP
wRC+164 (elite)K%16.4 (above avg)HH%45.6 (elite)
Cade Cavalli R
xERA6.66 (poor)K%13.8 (below avg)HH%42.2 (below avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA6.39IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs79BB%6.9
PHI vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-186-1.5 (-110)O8.5 (+100)WSN+156+1.5 (-102)U8.0 (-102)
C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs 
W6.09155111
W6.09155111Jun 14@ L5.29838144
L5.29838144Jun 8@ 
W7.0107104122
W7.0107104122Jun 3vs 
W7.08484111
W7.08484111May 27@ W7.010096000
W7.010096000Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20@ W2.26816322
W2.26816322Jun 13vs W5.08154033
W5.08154033Jun 7@ L5.08827144
L5.08827144Jun 1vs L5.08965322
L5.08965322May 26@ W6.08775211
W6.08775211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
C. Sanchez
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.02.676.54.53.5(2)
at WSN—
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI6.31.894.06.31.3(3)
home starts5.73.716.74.31.3(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 4-2 vs WSN this season (6 games).
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 5.2 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 4.2 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-4 vs PHI this season (6 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 3-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 4.4 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 5.6 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 5.182d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 4.56 (below avg)ERA 6.832d stress Stressed (13.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- PHI — C. Sanchez: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- WSN bullpen stressed (13.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
PHI -1.5 (+101)
C. Sanchez is on a historic run (recent ERA 1.29 over 3 starts, all 7.0 IP outings) with a great track record vs WSN specifically (2.67 ERA, 5.0 IP/gs). PHI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 146 in L12), giving a strong compound edge. Cavalli is improving recently (3.94 ERA in last 3) but his xERA 6.66 is poor and PHI historically handles him. The +101 line for PHI -1.5 is exceptional value — getting plus money on a heavy favorite's run line, driven by the Sanchez edge and dominant PHI offense. Both bullpens are average-to-below which doesn't hurt this spread play (Sanchez eats 7 innings anyway). PHI 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts; WSN just 2-3 at home in Cavalli's last 5.
C. Sanchez Ks o6.5 (+102)
Sanchez is in elite form (recent ERA 1.29, averaging 9.0 K/start in last 3); his xERA is 3.16 with a 24.0 K%; WSN vs LHP has a 25.0 K% — one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball, which is BETTER than the high-K TOR/MIL teams he just dominated; Sanchez has 6.5 K/gs historical vs WSN; he's averaging 6.2 IP/gs and has been going 7 full innings in each of his last 3 starts with 97-107 pitch counts, so he'll have the innings to accumulate Ks; the adjusted K expectation (~8-9) is well above the 6.5 line; +102 offers genuine value.
TEX @ TOR7:07 PM · Rogers CentreNeutral Conditions
TEX @ TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.50 (good)K%28.9 (elite)HH%57.5 (poor)Barrel%8.5 (avg)ERA3.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%9.2
TOR vs LHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%28.6 (poor)HH%20.6 (poor)
Kevin Gausman R
xERA3.56 (good)K%24.6 (good)HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA7.71IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%9.8
TEX vs RHP
wRC+116 (above avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%41.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+129+1.5 (-171)O8.0 (+100)TOR-150-1.5 (+150)U7.5 (+100)
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs L6.09565211
L6.09565211Jun 15vs L7.0102104244
L7.0102104244Jun 10@ W5.08768322
W5.08768322Jun 3@ L4.210059344
L4.210059344May 29vs W6.19934100
W6.19934100Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ L2.06837477
L2.06837477Jun 13vs 
L7.010571211
L7.010571211Jun 7vs W5.09355044
W5.09355044Jun 2@ L6.09685244
L6.09685244May 27vs W5.09556211
W5.09556211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.05.405.09.02.0(1)
at TOR5.05.405.09.02.0(1)
Kevin Gausman
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX8.01.126.05.00.0(1)
home starts5.73.185.74.01.3(3)
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-4 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 4.8 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.6 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-3 in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 3-2 in Kevin Gausman's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 2.8 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 4.0 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.71 (good)ERA 5.442d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
TOR
xERA 3.69 (good)ERA 3.582d stress Elevated (10.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
62°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph ENE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: HH% 57% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TEX bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR bullpen elevated (10.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: recent opponents low-K: MIN 18%, SDP 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- TOR — Kevin Gausman: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TOR — Kevin Gausman: 2026-06-19: 7 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 32) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Gausman's last start was only 68 pitches (injury/early hook concern) and his recent ERA 5.06 is legitimately elevated; Gore's HH% 57.5% is alarming and TOR lineup has low K% 28.6% vs LHP which is extreme but Gore's recent ERA 3.53 is fine; the split total line (O8.0/U7.5) with a gap signals market uncertainty — no clean play without better clarity on Gausman's availability/health.
NYY @ BOS✓7:10 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
NYY @ BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cam Schlittler R
xERA2.76 (elite)K%33.8 (elite)HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA0.96IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs96BB%6.8
BOS vs RHP
wRC+86 (below avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%32.6 (below avg)
Connelly Early L
xERA3.10 (good)K%21.6 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA5.28IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%10.8
NYY vs LHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%33.1 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-155-1.5 (+110)O8.0 (-102)BOS+134+1.5 (-128)U7.5 (+100)
Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19vs 
W6.096134000
W6.096134000Jun 13@ W7.010176411
W7.010176411Jun 7vs W5.29254111
W5.29254111Jun 2vs L4.17635045
L4.17635045May 26@ W6.07764011
W6.07764011Connelly Early · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20@ W6.09872211
W6.09872211Jun 14vs L4.291311266
L4.291311266Jun 8@ L4.29665422
L4.29665422Jun 2vs L5.19666144
L5.19666144May 27vs W7.09774300
W7.09774300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS6.61.365.04.01.0(2)
at BOS8.01.125.04.01.0(1)
Connelly Early
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.15.294.05.03.0(1)
home starts5.45.525.37.02.0(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 4-2 vs BOS this season (6 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 4-1 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 4-1 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 6.6 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 5.8 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-4 vs NYY this season (6 games).
- BOS are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 2-3 in Connelly Early's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-3 in Connelly Early's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 4.0 runs/game in Connelly Early's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 3.8 runs/game in Connelly Early's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.81 (avg)ERA 3.212d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 3.822d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 4 mph W
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- BOS bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- BOS — Connelly Early: 2026-06-14: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BOS — Connelly Early: recent opponents low-K: TBR 19%, SEA 13% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
NYY @ BOS u8.0 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup: Schlittler xERA 2.76 (season ERA 0.96 << xERA, but still elite) with a dominant recent history vs BOS (1.36 ERA, 6.6 IP/gs in 2 starts, 1.12 ERA at Fenway). Connelly Early is genuinely good (xERA 3.10, recent ERA 3.31 trending toward his true talent), with a strong 7.0 IP/0 ER outing just last time. Both bullpens are strong: NYY 3.51 xERA, BOS 2.71 xERA — best pen combo of the entire slate, which protects the low number all 9 innings. BOS offense vs RHP is cold (wRC+ 94 in L12) against an elite pitcher dominating them specifically. NYY vs LHP is average (114 wRC+). STL run-support trends are irrelevant here — BOS averages just 4.0 RS in Early's starts. The 8.0 total is a fair market number with real under edge given both starter quality and elite bullpen support.
NYY -1.5 (+120)
Cam Schlittler has an elite xERA 2.76, and his matchup history vs BOS is outstanding (1.36 ERA, 6.6 IP/gs over 2 starts including a 1.12 ERA / 8.0 IP at this very park). NYY is 4-1 in his last 5 starts with 6.6 RS avg, and 4-1 on the road. Connelly Early struggles at home (5.52 ERA in last 3 home starts) and vs NYY (5.29 ERA). BOS offense is below average in L12 (wRC+ 94). NYY bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.51, ERA 3.00) and BOS bullpen is also solid (xERA 2.71), meaning the pitching edge for NYY is not eroded by pen risk. Getting NYY -1.5 at +120 is excellent value — essentially being paid to take the better team with the better pitcher in a favorable matchup.
Cam Schlittler Ks o6.5
Schlittler is one of the best strikeout arms in the AL right now — 33.8% K rate, xERA 2.76, season ERA 0.96. He has gone 9, 10, 9, 7, 7 Ks in his last 5 starts, clearing 6.5 in 4 of 5. The BOS matchup is specifically favorable: he already struck out 9 BOS hitters on Jun 7 at Fenway and carries a 1.36 ERA / 6.6 IP/gs in 2 career starts vs BOS — deep outings mean he gets enough innings to accumulate. BOS wRC+ vs RHP is 94 in L12 (cold offense). The 6.5 line is a low bar for a pitcher whose floor in this form is 7.
NYY @ BOS u7.5 (+100)
Elite pitching matchup with strong bullpen backing. Schlittler carries an elite xERA of 2.76 and has a 1.36 ERA / 1.12 ERA in prior starts vs BOS and at Fenway specifically — the matchup history is outstanding. Early's xERA is solid at 3.10 (season ERA 5.28 is above xERA, indicating bad luck — real skill is better than it looks). Both offenses are average-to-below: NYY wRC+ 113 vs LHP, BOS wRC+ 86 vs RHP. BOS bullpen is elite (xERA 2.58), NYY pen is solid (xERA 3.81). Neutral park (APF 104) and calm weather. Getting +100 on the Under 7.5 with two quality pitchers and strong pens is excellent value — the market appears to be weighting Early's inflated ERA without adjusting for his xERA.
NYY @ BOS u8.5 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup with both starters showing strong underlying metrics. Schlittler has xERA 2.76 (elite) and owns BOS (1.36 ERA in 2 matchup starts, 1.12 ERA at Fenway). Early carries xERA 3.10 (good) with a 7-inning shutout in his most recent strong start. Both bullpens are excellent — NYY xERA 3.51, BOS xERA 2.71 — meaning neither pen will blow the game open after the starters exit. BOS offense is cold at wRC+ 94 vs RHP, and NYY is only avg vs LHP at 114. Fenway APF 104 is modest. Combined run trends are modest: BOS averaging 4.0 RS in Early's starts, NYY averaging 6.6 but against a weaker opposing pitcher. With two quality arms, two strong pens, and a cold BOS offense, 8.5 is beatable.
Cam Schlittler o3.5 Ks (-130)
Schlittler's K% is elite at 33.8% and his matchup history vs BOS shows 5.0 K/gs. BOS vs RHP has a 22.1% K rate (solid). His recent avg is 4.7 K/start. Line of 3.5 appears undervalued given his K% and the 6.2 IP/gs average. The -130 price is at the edge of acceptable; the adjusted expectation of ~4.5-5 Ks well exceeds the 3.5 line, but caution on the price.
CHC @ NYM7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
CHC @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Matthew Boyd L
xERA3.78 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)HH%47.8 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs90BB%4.8
NYM vs LHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%20.8 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.50 (good)K%13.4 (below avg)HH%34.6 (good)Barrel%3.9 (elite)ERA11.20IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%6.0
CHC vs RHP
wRC+109 (avg)K%20.7 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-104-1.5 (+162)O8.5 (-102)NYM-112+1.5 (-190)U8.5 (-110)
Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 3vs W6.09454122
W6.09454122Apr 27@ L4.09148255
L4.09148255Apr 22vs W4.28455022
W4.28455022Apr 1vs W5.298102212
W5.298102212Mar 26vs L3.26376166
L3.26376166Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20@ L2.28021011010
L2.28021011010Jun 14vs W5.09024111
W5.09024111Jun 9vs L6.09856266
L6.09856266Jun 3@ W6.010166211
W6.010166211May 29vs W4.29458144
W4.29458144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.53.245.54.00.5(2)
at NYM6.03.008.06.00.0(1)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.14.744.03.03.0(3)
home starts5.16.514.06.01.3(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 6-1 vs NYM this season (7 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 3-2 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 0-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 1 away starts.
- CHC average 6.4 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 7.0 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 1 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-6 vs CHC this season (7 games).
- NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM have lost 6 straight.
- NYM are 3-2 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 4-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 5.4 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 6.8 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.89 (below avg)ERA 5.722d stress Normal (11.7 IP/3g)
NYM
xERA 3.73 (good)ERA 4.232d stress Elevated (14.3 IP/3g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 14 mph SSE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- NYM bullpen elevated (14.3 IP over 3g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: 53 days since last start (2026-05-03) — may not be fully stretched out
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: 2026-04-27: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: recent opponents low-K: SDP 18%, ARI 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling (Boyd recent ERA 6.43, Peralta recent ERA 6.11) but Boyd has a 53-day layoff concern and may not be stretched out, creating too much uncertainty on innings/run environment; both bullpens are mediocre; the 8.5 total seems fairly priced given the dual starter struggles, and the CHC bullpen xERA 4.89 further muddies any side bet.
ARI @ STL✓7:45 PM · Busch StadiumRainy, Windy
ARI @ STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zac Gallen R
xERA5.38 (poor)K%11.7 (poor)HH%37.1 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA9.39IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs87BB%6.5
STL vs RHP
wRC+140 (elite)K%16.5 (above avg)HH%45.0 (elite)
Michael McGreevy R
xERA4.78 (below avg)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA4.76IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%4.2
ARI vs RHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%18.8 (above avg)HH%36.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+113+1.5 (-188)O9.0 (-102)STL-130-1.5 (+158)U9.0 (-115)
Zac Gallen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs L4.081212299
L4.081212299Jun 14@ W6.08546233
W6.08546233Jun 9@ L5.19439144
L5.19439144Jun 3vs 
L5.09019245
L5.09019245May 29@ L5.08428155
L5.08428155Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ L5.09528155
L5.09528155Jun 14@ L6.08927222
L6.08927222Jun 7vs W6.08355022
W6.08355022Jun 1vs L6.08715222
L6.08715222May 26@ L4.08967355
L4.08967355SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zac Gallen
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.26.924.03.04.0(1)
at STL5.26.924.03.04.0(1)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI—
home starts5.73.712.36.71.0(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-1 vs STL this season (3 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 1-4 in Zac Gallen's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-4 in Zac Gallen's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 5.0 runs/game in Zac Gallen's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.2 runs/game in Zac Gallen's last 5 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 1-2 vs ARI this season (3 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-4 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 3.0 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 2.2 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.73 (below avg)ERA 4.352d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
STL
xERA 5.39 (poor)ERA 6.692d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Rainy, Windy
76°F, Heavy Rain, Wind 23 mph SW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.39 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ARI bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — Michael McGreevy: 2026-06-19: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — Michael McGreevy: recent opponents low-K: MIN 14%, KCR 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 23 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
ARI @ STL o9.0 (-105)
Strong over case: Zac Gallen is in acute collapse (recent ERA 7.75 vs xERA 5.38 — both signal runs, 9.39 season ERA), McGreevy has a sketchy xERA (4.78) with a bad start recently and a 10.2% barrel rate; STL offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 138, 45.4 HH%); ARI offense is average but STL bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.64, ERA 6.69 — a disqualifying-level pen meaning runs WILL come after 5); both starters average <6 IP/gs, so both shaky pens will see a lot of action; Gallen has a 6.92 ERA in his only career start at Busch Stadium; combined signals strongly favor runs well exceeding 9 on this total.
STL Team Total o(estimate ~4.5) (-110)
STL's elite offense (wRC+ 140, HH% 45%) faces a Gallen who has given up 13 ER in his last 3 starts (recent ERA 7.75) and has a 6.92 ERA in his only career start at this park vs this opponent. Wind blowing out 23mph amplifies the damage. This is a pure offensive edge against a demonstrably struggling starter.