AI Picks · 15 Bets · Aug 24
Ranger Suarez u5.5 Ks (-155)
Suarez has struck out just 3, 2, and 3 over his last 3 starts with a 13.8 K% over that stretch, and he averages only 4.4 IP/gs, so both the rate and the length work against clearing this number. Even with his outs line set at 17.5, projecting more innings than he has been throwing, a low-strikeout arm against a Miami lineup carrying a modest 20.3 K% over their last 6 leaves no path to six punchouts. The juice buys a high-probability outcome the market has priced far too close.
Found at 4:16 AM ET
Sandy Alcantara u4.5 Ks (-108)
Alcantara's last 3 starts have produced a 13.9 K% on a 14.8 Whiff% — 8, 2 and 1 strikeouts, an average of 3.7 per outing even while going 6.7 IP/gs. Boston is the hardest lineup on the board to strike out right now at a 13.5 K% and 14.4 Whiff% vs right-handed pitching over their last 6, down from 17.9 over their last 12. A contact-first opponent against an arm currently pitching to soft contact rather than swings-and-misses makes four or fewer the likelier outcome, and the market has it at an even-money coin flip.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
Cade Cavalli o6.5 Ks (+108)
Cavalli has struck out 8, 10 and 11 in his last 3 starts on a 39.2 K% and 35.3 Whiff%, going 6.7 IP/gs, and he punched out 8 in 6 innings the one time he faced Colorado in July. The Rockies are striking out at a 27.7 clip vs right-handed pitching over their last 6 with a 24.2 Whiff%, and their 23.8 K% over the last 12 says the swing-and-miss is not a one-week blip. His outs line at 17.5 with the over at -191 confirms the innings are expected to be there, and plus money on seven strikeouts from an arm that has cleared the number in all three of his last starts is the mispricing.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
Ryan Feltner u3.5 Ks (+110)
Feltner has struck out 2, 2 and 3 over his last 3 starts, a 9.5 K% with a negative K-BB% and a 12.2 BB% that eats his pitch count before he can pile up outs, and he still averaged only 5.1 IP/gs in that stretch. Washington is not helping him get there with a 20.0 K% and 22.0 Whiff% vs right-handed pitching over their last 6, numbers that match their 22.0 K% over the last 12. He has not reached four strikeouts in any recent outing, and plus money on three or fewer is a price built on reputation rather than on what he has actually thrown.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
WSN Team Total u4.5 (-110)
Washington is at 51 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 64 mark over their last 12 — the same dismal read in both windows, with a 31.6% hard-hit rate that shows no quality of contact behind it. Ryan Feltner is nothing special at a 4.74 xERA over his last 3, but he has completed at least five innings in each of them, which limits how much of this game the Colorado bullpen has to cover. A number set at five runs asks the worst-hitting lineup on this slate to have its best night of the month.
Found at 4:29 PM ET
TEX Team Total u3.5 (+110)
Texas has an 18 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 30.8 K% over that window, and even the longer look sits at a broken 47 wRC+ over their last 12 — this lineup simply cannot score right now. They average 2.8 runs per road game over their last 5. Urquidy (2.27 xERA over his last 3) and a competent Chicago bullpen give no relief, yet the market is offering plus money on a club that has been shut down for two weeks.
Found at 4:16 AM ET
Kumar Rocker u15.5 Outs (+165)
Rocker has thrown 3.0, 5.0 and 5.0 innings in his last 3 starts — 9, 15 and 15 outs, not one of them past this number — with a 12.3 BB% that pushed him to 94 and 92 pitches just to reach the fifth. Even in his two strong outings against the White Sox he needed 82 and 75 pitches for 5 and 6 innings, and Chicago's 29.5 Whiff% vs right-handed pitching over their last 6 means deep counts rather than quick innings. Getting plus money on a starter who has finished five innings exactly once in three tries is a price that does not match his recent workload.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
CLE @ LAA u8.0 (-106)
Messick (1.95 xERA over his last 3) and Klassen (3.29 xERA over his last 3) are both pitching well, and neither offense can punish them: Cleveland is at 83 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and the Angels a dismal 68 wRC+ vs LHP over the same window. Both bullpens have been elite over their last 12 (Cleveland 2.38 ERA, Los Angeles 2.19 ERA), so there is no soft relief to inflate the score. Two quality arms, two punchless lineups and two lockdown pens make eight a number this game rarely reaches.
Found at 4:16 AM ET
Merrill Kelly u16.5 Outs (-108)
Kelly has a 6.65 xERA and a 16.4 BB% over his last 3, averaging 4.9 IP/gs with lines of 5.2, 5.0 and 4.0 innings, and his three meetings with the Cubs went 5.1, 5.2 and 4.1 — clearing this number just twice in seven relevant starts. The Cubs arrive with a 141 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching over their last 6 and a 40.0 HH%, backed by 127 over their last 12, which is the sort of lineup that runs a walk-prone starter's pitch count up early. Arizona's pen is stressed at 5.7 innings, but that has not stopped this staff from pulling him before the sixth, and the market has this at a straight coin flip.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
CHC @ ARI o9.0 (-110)
Chicago's 141 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching over their last 6, supported by 127 over their last 12, meets a Kelly who has posted a 6.65 xERA, a 16.4 BB% and a negative K-BB% across his last 3 and has given up 6 earned in each of his last two outings. Gausman has a 6.19 ERA over his last 3 with a 42.9 HH% and has been pulled at 4.2 and 4.1 innings in back-to-back starts, handing the ball to relievers with Arizona's lineup making contact at a 14.0 K% over their last 6. Arizona's pen is already stressed at 5.7 innings and Arizona has averaged 6.2 runs at home behind this starter, so nine runs in a 107-degree Chase Field should be priced as more than a coin flip.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
Jeffrey Springs u3.5 Ks (-106)
Springs has struck out 0, 2 and 1 across his last 3 starts, a 5.6 K% with a 16.7 BB% that has held him to 3.7 IP/gs over that span, and he lasted 1.1 innings the last time he faced this Minnesota club. The Twins are the wrong lineup to find strikeouts against: 12.5 K% vs left-handed pitching over their last 6 with a 17.2 Whiff%. Even his longest recent outing, 5.2 innings at Kansas City, produced a single strikeout, so a number set at 3.5 asks for more than double his recent per-start output and the price still treats it as a coin flip.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
Zebby Matthews u17.5 Outs (-130)
Matthews has gone 5.0, 5.0 and 5.2 innings in his last 3 starts — 15, 15 and 17 outs, none of them clearing this number — at 83, 94 and 90 pitches, and his 5.2 IP/gs over that window sits a full inning below the line. He is working in a hitter-friendly park at 91 degrees with a 63.5 HH% allowed over his last 3, and the Athletics have hammered the ball at home behind their own starters. Getting to six full innings requires a step past anything he has done recently, and the market has this priced as barely better than even.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
PHI Team Total o3.5 (+100)
Philadelphia carries a 140 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching over their last 6 with a 12.9 K% and 18.2 Whiff%, and the 126 over their last 12 says this is established form rather than a week-long heater. Gilbert has walked 12.5% of hitters over his last 3 and was rocked for 9 hits and 6 earned in 2 innings against this same lineup on August 18, and behind him sits a Seattle bullpen with a 5.04 xERA and 10.20 ERA over its last 12. Four runs from a lineup this disciplined against that combination should not be an even-money proposition.
Found at 10:36 AM ET
Chase Burns o6.5 Ks (-104)
Burns has struck out 6, 8 and 8 over his last 3 starts behind a 31.0% K rate and 30.6% whiff, and San Francisco has struck out at a 32.2% clip vs RHP over their last 6 with a 29.8% whiff rate — a lineup missing far more bats than its 23.1% mark over the last 12 suggested. His outs line at 17.5 puts him in line for close to six innings, which is the length this number needs, and he reached 104 pitches last time out. Two of his last three starts already clear this number against lineups that make more contact than tonight's, and the price treats a strikeout-per-inning pace as a coin flip.
Found at 4:29 PM ET
C. Whisenhunt u4.5 Ks (-117)
Whisenhunt has a 10.6% K rate over his last 3 starts with 4, 2 and 1 strikeouts in them, averaging 4.3 innings and 2.3 K per outing. Cincinnati's 25.0% K rate vs LHP over their last 6 sits well above the 15.9% whiff rate that supports it, so the strikeouts are not being earned on missed bats and that number is more fragile than it looks. His 12.1% walk rate over his last 3 keeps him from working deep enough for five punchouts, and at Oracle Park in 61-degree air the market is pricing an outing roughly double his recent strikeout output.
Found at 4:29 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
BOS @ 
MIA✓6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
BOS @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ranger Suarez L
xERA4.83 (below)ERA5.40 (poor)K%13.8 (below)Whiff%16.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%4.7 (elite)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs81BB%8.6 (avg)
MIA vs LHP
L6
wRC+112 (avg)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%26.3 (below)HH%36.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA2.74 (elite)ERA1.80 (elite)K%13.9 (below)Whiff%14.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%30.6 (good)Barrel%3.2 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs103BB%7.6 (avg)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+167 (elite)K%13.5 (elite)Whiff%14.4 (elite)HH%31.9 (below)
L12
wRC+138 (elite)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%19.7 (above)HH%32.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.87 (avg)ERA 2.88 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 2.86 (elite)ERA 4.71 (below)2d stress Normal (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-122-1.5 (+140)O7.0 (-120)MIA+115+1.5 (-162)U7.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-116-0.5 (+125)O3.5 (-130)MIA-108+0.5 (-164)U3.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS3.5 (-120/+100)1.5 (-135/+105)MIA3.5 (+116/-140)1.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez4.5 (-129 / +106)17.5 (+100 / -115)Sandy Alcantara4.5 (+102 / -118)18.5 (+110 / -131)
Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs 
W5.19334244
W5.19334244Aug 12@ 
L5.08126111
L5.08126111Aug 6vs 
W3.07033234
W3.07033234Jul 31@ 
W4.26524233
W4.26524233Jul 26vs W4.06464000
W4.06464000Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ 
L6.09718133
L6.09718133Aug 14@ 
L7.010323411
L7.010323411Aug 8vs 
W7.010883100
W7.010883100Aug 2@ 
W6.010254200
W6.010254200Jul 28vs W7.09754100
W7.09754100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA7.01.29elite8.04.02.0(1)
at MIA7.01.29elite8.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 18@ W7.09584211
W7.09584211Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS6.01.50elite7.02.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ L6.08672111
L6.08672111home starts7.01.29elite7.04.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W7.010883100
W7.010883100Jul 28vs W7.09754100
W7.09754100Jul 10vs 
L7.09985033
L7.09985033Trends · BOS
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 8.0 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 6.4 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-1 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 4 starts.
- BOS are 2-0 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 4-1 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 2.2 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 1-4 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-2 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 1
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-08-06: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.43 ERA equivalent
Ranger Suarez u5.5 Ks (-155)
Suarez has struck out just 3, 2, and 3 over his last 3 starts with a 13.8 K% over that stretch, and he averages only 4.4 IP/gs, so both the rate and the length work against clearing this number. Even with his outs line set at 17.5, projecting more innings than he has been throwing, a low-strikeout arm against a Miami lineup carrying a modest 20.3 K% over their last 6 leaves no path to six punchouts. The juice buys a high-probability outcome the market has priced far too close.
Sandy Alcantara u4.5 Ks (-108)
Alcantara's last 3 starts have produced a 13.9 K% on a 14.8 Whiff% — 8, 2 and 1 strikeouts, an average of 3.7 per outing even while going 6.7 IP/gs. Boston is the hardest lineup on the board to strike out right now at a 13.5 K% and 14.4 Whiff% vs right-handed pitching over their last 6, down from 17.9 over their last 12. A contact-first opponent against an arm currently pitching to soft contact rather than swings-and-misses makes four or fewer the likelier outcome, and the market has it at an even-money coin flip.
TBR @ 
DET6:40 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
TBR @ DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA2.81 (elite)ERA3.71 (good)K%23.5 (good)Whiff%22.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.3 (elite)Barrel%2.2 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs87BB%7.3 (avg)
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+104 (avg)K%18.4 (above)Whiff%17.5 (elite)HH%38.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%18.7 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%35.6 (avg)
Framber Valdez L
xERA4.82 (below)ERA3.93 (avg)K%16.2 (below)Whiff%17.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%45.5 (poor)Barrel%5.5 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs96BB%13.8 (poor)
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+60 (poor)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)HH%30.3 (below)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%20.4 (above)HH%33.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 4.55 (below)ERA 5.51 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 4.58 (below)ERA 5.21 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-124-1.5 (+128)O7.5 (-112)DET+116+1.5 (-150)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-145-0.5 (+102)O3.5 (-140)DET+114+0.5 (-132)U3.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR4.5 (+114/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)DET3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDrew Rasmussen5.5 (+124 / +120)17.5 (+100 / -114)Framber Valdez3.5 (-151 / +122)18.5 (+134 / -175)
Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W5.08657255
W5.08657255Aug 12@ 
W5.08434122
W5.08434122Aug 7@ 
W7.09182200
W7.09182200Aug 1vs W6.096104100
W6.096104100Jul 26vs W7.08791100
W7.08791100Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ 
W5.29155445
W5.29155445Aug 12vs L5.210236544
L5.210236544Aug 6@ W7.09555200
W7.09555200Aug 1@ W7.09669222
W7.09669222Jul 26vs 
L5.09744323
L5.09744323SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR9.01.00elite9.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 30vs W9.08393111
W9.08393111home starts5.73.66good5.34.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs L5.210236544
L5.210236544Jul 26vs L5.09744323
L5.09744323Jul 9vs W7.08793011
W7.08793011Trends · TBR
- TBR are 0-3 vs DET this season (3 games).
- TBR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 3.8 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 1-4 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 3 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-0 vs TBR this season (3 games).
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- DET have lost 5 straight.
- DET are 3-2 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 7.0 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.6 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 4-1 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-1 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
74°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph NW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: 2026-08-19: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
- DET — Framber Valdez: recent opponents high-K: SEA 27%, PIT 32%
AI Analysis
Tampa Bay at 60 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 against Framber Valdez and Detroit at 104 wRC+ vs RHP against Drew Rasmussen's 2.81 xERA over his last 3 produce a total right around the posted 7.5, and the Rays at -124 reflect the pitching edge without overpaying for it. Rasmussen's strikeout line at 5.5 sits at his 5.3 per start against a Detroit lineup striking out just 18.4% over its last 6, and his outs line at 17.5 matches the 5.7 innings he has averaged. Valdez at 3.5 strikeouts is where his 4.3 per start lands with the price already gone at -151, and his outs line at 18.5 is a six-inning ask from a pitcher whose 13.8% walk rate over his last 3 has him at 100-plus pitches by the sixth.
COL @ 
WSN✓6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
COL @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Ryan Feltner R
xERA4.74 (below)ERA7.04 (poor)K%9.5 (poor)Whiff%21.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.0 (good)Barrel%10.3 (avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs89BB%12.2 (below)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+51 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%31.6 (below)
L12
wRC+64 (poor)K%22.0 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%31.4 (below)
Cade Cavalli R
xERA2.49 (elite)ERA1.35 (elite)K%39.2 (elite)Whiff%35.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%45.0 (below)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs96BB%6.8 (good)
COL vs RHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%27.7 (below)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%40.9 (above)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%23.8 (avg)HH%37.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.79 (below)ERA 3.28 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 4.91 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+182+1.5 (-125)O8.0 (-115)WSN-194-1.5 (+110)U8.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+172+0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-106)WSN-220-0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (+108/-130)1.5 (-110/-120)WSN4.5 (-115/-110)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Feltner3.5 (-115 / -101)16.5 (-113 / -114)Cade Cavalli6.5 (-102 / -120)18.5 (+175 / +149)
Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs L5.08338377
L5.08338377Aug 12@ W5.09327322
W5.09327322Aug 7@ 
L5.19125333
L5.19125333Aug 1vs W6.08738144
W6.08738144Jul 25@ 
L5.08249155
L5.08249155Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ 
W6.084113100
W6.084113100Aug 13vs 
W8.0103101200
W8.0103101200Aug 7vs W6.010087233
W6.010087233Aug 2@ 
L6.09036123
L6.09036123Jul 28vs W6.09836223
W6.09836223SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs COL6.00.00elite8.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@ W6.09084200
W6.09084200home starts6.72.25elite7.04.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13vs W8.0103101200
W8.0103101200Aug 7vs W6.010087233
W6.010087233Jul 28vs W6.09836223
W6.09836223Trends · COL
- COL are 1-2 vs WSN this season (3 games).
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- COL have lost 6 straight.
- COL are 2-3 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 6.2 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.4 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 3-2 to the over in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Ryan Feltner's last 3 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-1 vs COL this season (3 games).
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN have lost 4 straight.
- WSN are 4-1 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 3-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 5.6 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 5.6 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-1 to the over in Cade Cavalli's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 7 mph NW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- COL — Ryan Feltner: Whiff% 21.1 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 9.5 shows
- COL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- WSN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- COL — Ryan Feltner: 2026-08-18: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.45 ERA equivalent
Cade Cavalli o6.5 Ks (+108)
Cavalli has struck out 8, 10 and 11 in his last 3 starts on a 39.2 K% and 35.3 Whiff%, going 6.7 IP/gs, and he punched out 8 in 6 innings the one time he faced Colorado in July. The Rockies are striking out at a 27.7 clip vs right-handed pitching over their last 6 with a 24.2 Whiff%, and their 23.8 K% over the last 12 says the swing-and-miss is not a one-week blip. His outs line at 17.5 with the over at -191 confirms the innings are expected to be there, and plus money on seven strikeouts from an arm that has cleared the number in all three of his last starts is the mispricing.
Ryan Feltner u3.5 Ks (+110)
Feltner has struck out 2, 2 and 3 over his last 3 starts, a 9.5 K% with a negative K-BB% and a 12.2 BB% that eats his pitch count before he can pile up outs, and he still averaged only 5.1 IP/gs in that stretch. Washington is not helping him get there with a 20.0 K% and 22.0 Whiff% vs right-handed pitching over their last 6, numbers that match their 22.0 K% over the last 12. He has not reached four strikeouts in any recent outing, and plus money on three or fewer is a price built on reputation rather than on what he has actually thrown.
WSN Team Total u4.5 (-110)
Washington is at 51 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 64 mark over their last 12 — the same dismal read in both windows, with a 31.6% hard-hit rate that shows no quality of contact behind it. Ryan Feltner is nothing special at a 4.74 xERA over his last 3, but he has completed at least five innings in each of them, which limits how much of this game the Colorado bullpen has to cover. A number set at five runs asks the worst-hitting lineup on this slate to have its best night of the month.
TEX @ CHW✓7:40 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
TEX @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kumar Rocker R
xERA5.96 (poor)ERA7.62 (poor)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%23.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs85BB%12.3 (below)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+81 (below)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%29.5 (poor)HH%35.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%26.9 (below)HH%38.0 (avg)
Jose Urquidy R
xERA2.27 (elite)ERA5.91 (poor)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%26.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%30.3 (good)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs10.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs50BB%0.0 (elite)
TEX vs RHP
L6
wRC+9 (poor)K%32.0 (poor)Whiff%30.5 (poor)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+42 (poor)K%29.1 (poor)Whiff%26.1 (below)HH%40.8 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 5.40 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.56 (good)ERA 3.13 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+120+1.5 (-178)O8.0 (-115)CHW-124-1.5 (+156)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+110+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-110)CHW-132-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (-122/+100)1.5 (-140/+110)CHW4.5 (+120/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker4.5 (-128 / +108)15.5 (-110 / +162)Jose Urquidy3.5 (-156 / +130)14.5 (-140 / +111)
Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs L5.09236122
L5.09236122Aug 14@ L5.09434533
L5.09434533Aug 9vs 
L3.06957266
L3.06957266Aug 2@ 
L5.188510233
L5.188510233Jul 27vs W6.28874222
W6.28874222Jose Urquidy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ W6.0*6882000
W6.0*6882000Aug 14@ W3.2*5235033
W3.2*5235033Apr 13vs W1.0*3106044
W1.0*3106044Apr 12@ L0.1*2203111
L0.1*2203111Apr 8vs 
L2.0*3634014
L2.0*3634014SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.50.00elite6.02.51.5(2)
at CHW—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs W6.07561200
W6.07561200Jun 15vs W5.08264100
W5.08264100Trends · TEX
- TEX are 1-2 vs CHW this season (3 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 1-4 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 3.6 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 2.8 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 3-2 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-1 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-1 vs TEX this season (3 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph ENE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: Whiff% 23.9 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 16.9 shows
- CHW bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g)
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-08-09: 6 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 18); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
- CHW — Jose Urquidy: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-19, 2026-08-14
TEX Team Total u3.5 (+110)
Texas has an 18 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 30.8 K% over that window, and even the longer look sits at a broken 47 wRC+ over their last 12 — this lineup simply cannot score right now. They average 2.8 runs per road game over their last 5. Urquidy (2.27 xERA over his last 3) and a competent Chicago bullpen give no relief, yet the market is offering plus money on a club that has been shut down for two weeks.
Kumar Rocker u15.5 Outs (+165)
Rocker has thrown 3.0, 5.0 and 5.0 innings in his last 3 starts — 9, 15 and 15 outs, not one of them past this number — with a 12.3 BB% that pushed him to 94 and 92 pitches just to reach the fifth. Even in his two strong outings against the White Sox he needed 82 and 75 pitches for 5 and 6 innings, and Chicago's 29.5 Whiff% vs right-handed pitching over their last 6 means deep counts rather than quick innings. Getting plus money on a starter who has finished five innings exactly once in three tries is a price that does not match his recent workload.
CLE @ LAA✓9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
CLE @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Parker Messick L
xERA1.95 (elite)ERA2.33 (elite)K%32.0 (elite)Whiff%30.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.9 (good)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs99BB%4.0 (elite)
LAA vs LHP
L6
wRC+127 (above)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%29.3 (poor)HH%37.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%37.5 (avg)
George Klassen R
xERA3.29 (good)ERA1.59 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%33.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs85BB%11.6 (below)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+100 (avg)K%15.9 (elite)Whiff%15.3 (elite)HH%38.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+91 (below)K%15.2 (elite)Whiff%15.1 (elite)HH%34.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 1.63 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.40 (elite)ERA 1.75 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-158-1.5 (+105)O7.5 (-110)LAA+147+1.5 (-125)U7.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-166-0.5 (-114)O3.5 (-146)LAA+136+0.5 (-114)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (+114/-145)LAA3.5 (+124/-145)1.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UParker Messick7.5 (+117 / +122)17.5 (-178 / +136)George Klassen4.5 (+132 / -147)15.5 (+116 / -146)
Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs 
L6.298106011
L6.298106011Aug 13@ L5.210263222
L5.210263222Aug 7@ W7.09784122
W7.09784122Aug 1vs L4.19166112
L4.19166112Jul 26@ L7.29466011
L7.29466011George Klassen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18@ W7.08671300
W7.08671300Aug 12vs W6.08755122
W6.08755122Aug 7@ W4.08334411
W4.08334411Apr 11@ L2.07224545
L2.07224545Apr 5vs W2.27343522
W2.27343522SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.22.90elite7.04.03.0(1)
at LAA—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 13vs W6.210474322
W6.210474322George Klassen
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE—
home starts4.14.39avg4.54.03.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W6.08755122
W6.08755122Apr 5vs W2.27343522
W2.27343522Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-0 vs LAA this season (3 games).
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have won 4 straight.
- CLE are 1-4 in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Parker Messick's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.4 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Parker Messick's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-3 vs CLE this season (3 games).
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 4-1 in George Klassen's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-0 in George Klassen's last 2 home starts.
- LAA average 4.6 runs/game in George Klassen's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 6.5 runs/game in George Klassen's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 0-3 to the over in George Klassen's last 3 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- LAA — George Klassen: Whiff% 33.1 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 21.7 shows
- LAA offense: Whiff% 29.3 (last 6) runs well above what K% 22.2 shows
- LAA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- LAA — George Klassen: recent opponents high-K: TEX 32%, HOU 28%
CLE @ LAA u8.0 (-106)
Messick (1.95 xERA over his last 3) and Klassen (3.29 xERA over his last 3) are both pitching well, and neither offense can punish them: Cleveland is at 83 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and the Angels a dismal 68 wRC+ vs LHP over the same window. Both bullpens have been elite over their last 12 (Cleveland 2.38 ERA, Los Angeles 2.19 ERA), so there is no soft relief to inflate the score. Two quality arms, two punchless lineups and two lockdown pens make eight a number this game rarely reaches.
CHC @ ARI✓9:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
CHC @ ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kevin Gausman R
xERA4.01 (avg)ERA6.19 (poor)K%23.2 (good)Whiff%30.7 (elite)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs92BB%5.8 (good)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+93 (below)K%14.0 (elite)Whiff%14.5 (elite)HH%44.4 (above)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%15.5 (elite)Whiff%16.9 (elite)HH%38.4 (avg)
Merrill Kelly R
xERA6.65 (poor)ERA7.98 (poor)K%11.9 (poor)Whiff%21.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs79BB%16.4 (poor)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+141 (elite)K%23.1 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 3.14 (good)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 4.66 (below)ERA 3.61 (good)2d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-133-1.5 (+116)O9.0 (-110)ARI+126+1.5 (-139)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-145-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-135)ARI+130+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC4.5 (-125/+105)2.5 (-110/-120)ARI3.5 (-135/+106)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKevin Gausman4.5 (-106 / -113)16.5 (-118 / -104)Merrill Kelly3.5 (-138 / +112)16.5 (+102 / -133)
Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs W4.18657233
W4.18657233Aug 13@ L4.29377166
L4.29377166Aug 7@ W7.09644122
W7.09644122Aug 1vs W5.29449111
W5.29449111Jul 26@ L6.09865133
L6.09865133Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18@ L4.08627466
L4.08627466Aug 12vs L5.07126366
L5.07126366Aug 7vs W5.28042411
W5.28042411Aug 2@ L5.09658455
L5.09658455Jul 27@ L5.29364101
L5.29364101SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kevin Gausman
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.08.02poor4.07.02.0(2)
at ARI6.03.00good4.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 19@ W6.08647122
W6.08647122Jun 19vs L4.18147377
L4.18147377Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.85.00below3.74.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 3@ L4.19258366
L4.19258366Apr 20@ W5.28152111
W5.28152111Mar 28vs W5.18513411
W5.18513411home starts5.15.33poor3.04.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs L5.07126366
L5.07126366Aug 7vs W5.28042411
W5.28042411Jul 22vs W5.08735122
W5.08735122Trends · CHC
- CHC are 3-0 vs ARI this season (3 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 3-1 in Kevin Gausman's last 4 starts.
- CHC are 1-1 in Kevin Gausman's last 2 away starts.
- CHC average 6.5 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 4 starts.
- CHC average 3.0 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 1-1 to the over in Kevin Gausman's last 2 starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 0-3 vs CHC this season (3 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 2.8 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 6.2 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 1-4 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: Whiff% 21.2 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.9 shows
- ARI bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g)
Merrill Kelly u16.5 Outs (-108)
Kelly has a 6.65 xERA and a 16.4 BB% over his last 3, averaging 4.9 IP/gs with lines of 5.2, 5.0 and 4.0 innings, and his three meetings with the Cubs went 5.1, 5.2 and 4.1 — clearing this number just twice in seven relevant starts. The Cubs arrive with a 141 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching over their last 6 and a 40.0 HH%, backed by 127 over their last 12, which is the sort of lineup that runs a walk-prone starter's pitch count up early. Arizona's pen is stressed at 5.7 innings, but that has not stopped this staff from pulling him before the sixth, and the market has this at a straight coin flip.
CHC @ ARI o9.0 (-110)
Chicago's 141 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching over their last 6, supported by 127 over their last 12, meets a Kelly who has posted a 6.65 xERA, a 16.4 BB% and a negative K-BB% across his last 3 and has given up 6 earned in each of his last two outings. Gausman has a 6.19 ERA over his last 3 with a 42.9 HH% and has been pulled at 4.2 and 4.1 innings in back-to-back starts, handing the ball to relievers with Arizona's lineup making contact at a 14.0 K% over their last 6. Arizona's pen is already stressed at 5.7 innings and Arizona has averaged 6.2 runs at home behind this starter, so nine runs in a 107-degree Chase Field should be priced as more than a coin flip.
MIN @ ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
MIN @ ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Zebby Matthews R
xERA4.31 (avg)ERA4.60 (below)K%17.4 (avg)Whiff%13.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%63.5 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs89BB%7.2 (avg)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%26.0 (below)HH%32.5 (below)
L12
wRC+109 (avg)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%23.7 (avg)HH%33.5 (below)
Jeffrey Springs L
xERA7.01 (poor)ERA6.55 (poor)K%5.6 (poor)Whiff%20.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs69BB%16.7 (poor)
MIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%12.5 (elite)Whiff%17.2 (elite)HH%35.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+130 (elite)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%18.8 (above)HH%38.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 5.44 (poor)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 4.62 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN-142-1.5 (+100)O11.0 (-105)ATH+134+1.5 (-118)U11.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN-140-0.5 (-114)O5.5 (-130)ATH+124+0.5 (-114)U5.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN5.5 (-128/+110)2.5 (-145/+114)ATH4.5 (-113/+100)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZebby Matthews4.5 (+118 / -148)17.5 (+102 / -101)Jeffrey Springs3.5 (-128 / +102)15.5 (+134 / -174)
Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs W5.29045111
W5.29045111Aug 12vs W5.09446244
W5.09446244Aug 7@ W5.08347236
W5.08347236Jul 31@ W5.0101104233
W5.0101104233Jul 24vs L6.09213322
L6.09213322Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ L5.28515322
L5.28515322Jul 31vs L4.08624522
L4.08624522Jul 26@ L1.13604145
L1.13604145Jul 20@ W5.07826122
W5.07826122Jul 8@ L4.19246466
L4.19246466SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zebby Matthews
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.52.45elite2.53.53.0(2)
at ATH5.01.80elite4.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 24vs L6.09213322
L6.09213322Jun 4@ W5.07744311
W5.07744311Jeffrey Springs
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN1.132.73poor0.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26@ L1.13604145
L1.13604145home starts4.110.24poor2.75.34.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs L4.08624522
L4.08624522Jun 30vs L5.19228466
L5.19228466Jun 19vs W3.28644466
W3.28644466Trends · MIN
- MIN are 2-1 vs ATH this season (3 games).
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 4-1 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 4-1 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 4.8 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.0 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-1 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 1-2 vs MIN this season (3 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 4.4 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 7.8 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 3-1 to the over in Jeffrey Springs's last 4 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: avg 3.7 IP/gs over his last 3
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Whiff% 20.2 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 5.6 shows
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-08-12: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.57 ERA equivalent
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: recent opponents high-K: BAL 25%, ATL 25%
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: 2026-07-26: 4 ER in 1.1 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.98 ERA equivalent
- ATH — Jeffrey Springs: recent opponents low-K: MIN 12%, KCR 13%
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108)
Jeffrey Springs u3.5 Ks (-106)
Springs has struck out 0, 2 and 1 across his last 3 starts, a 5.6 K% with a 16.7 BB% that has held him to 3.7 IP/gs over that span, and he lasted 1.1 innings the last time he faced this Minnesota club. The Twins are the wrong lineup to find strikeouts against: 12.5 K% vs left-handed pitching over their last 6 with a 17.2 Whiff%. Even his longest recent outing, 5.2 innings at Kansas City, produced a single strikeout, so a number set at 3.5 asks for more than double his recent per-start output and the price still treats it as a coin flip.
Zebby Matthews u17.5 Outs (-130)
Matthews has gone 5.0, 5.0 and 5.2 innings in his last 3 starts — 15, 15 and 17 outs, none of them clearing this number — at 83, 94 and 90 pitches, and his 5.2 IP/gs over that window sits a full inning below the line. He is working in a hitter-friendly park at 91 degrees with a 63.5 HH% allowed over his last 3, and the Athletics have hammered the ball at home behind their own starters. Getting to six full innings requires a step past anything he has done recently, and the market has this priced as barely better than even.
PHI @ SEA✓9:40 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
PHI @ SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Zack Wheeler R
xERA3.75 (avg)ERA5.87 (poor)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%26.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs99BB%14.1 (poor)
SEA vs RHP
L6
wRC+80 (below)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%19.0 (above)HH%26.1 (poor)
L12
wRC+120 (above)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)HH%35.3 (avg)
Logan Gilbert R
xERA3.69 (good)ERA2.55 (elite)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%28.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs97BB%12.5 (below)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+140 (elite)K%12.9 (elite)Whiff%18.2 (above)HH%35.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+126 (above)K%16.4 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%36.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 3.19 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 5.04 (below)ERA 10.20 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-108-1.5 (+164)O6.5 (-118)SEA+101+1.5 (-190)U6.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-115-0.5 (+122)O3.5 (+100)SEA-104+0.5 (-160)U3.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI3.5 (+100/-122)1.5 (-115/-115)SEA3.5 (+120/+124)1.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZack Wheeler7.5 (+124 / -150)17.5 (-166 / +132)Logan Gilbert6.5 (+124 / -150)17.5 (-181 / +142)
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs W5.09872422
W5.09872422Aug 12@ L5.08456145
L5.08456145Aug 7vs L5.111667544
L5.111667544Aug 2@ W2.03231000
W2.03231000Jul 27@ L3.06866155
L3.06866155Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19@ W5.010054433
W5.010054433Aug 13@ 
W6.09574100
W6.09574100Aug 7vs L6.29564422
L6.29564422Aug 1vs W7.09665133
W7.09665133Jul 26@ W5.29345233
W5.29345233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Gilbert
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI2.027.00poor1.09.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18@ L2.06519066
L2.06519066home starts6.43.75avg7.34.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs L6.29564422
L6.29564422Aug 1vs W7.09665133
W7.09665133Jul 19vs W6.095104133
W6.095104133Trends · PHI
- PHI are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI have won 9 straight.
- PHI are 2-3 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 5.2 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 5.0 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-2 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 4-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 4-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 3.8 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 2-3 to the over in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-2 to the over in Logan Gilbert's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph N
APF 92 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 3
- SEA bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.04 over its last 12
- PHI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- SEA — Logan Gilbert: recent opponents low-K: TBR 14%, MIL 18%
PHI Team Total o3.5 (+100)
Philadelphia carries a 140 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching over their last 6 with a 12.9 K% and 18.2 Whiff%, and the 126 over their last 12 says this is established form rather than a week-long heater. Gilbert has walked 12.5% of hitters over his last 3 and was rocked for 9 hits and 6 earned in 2 innings against this same lineup on August 18, and behind him sits a Seattle bullpen with a 5.04 xERA and 10.20 ERA over its last 12. Four runs from a lineup this disciplined against that combination should not be an even-money proposition.
PIT @ SDP9:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
PIT @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Braxton Ashcraft R
xERA2.98 (elite)ERA2.45 (elite)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%21.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%45.5 (poor)Barrel%12.7 (below)IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs82BB%2.6 (elite)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+128 (above)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+127 (above)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%25.5 (below)HH%42.4 (above)
Robbie Ray L
xERA5.35 (poor)ERA4.20 (avg)K%15.2 (below)Whiff%23.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%15.6 (poor)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89BB%16.7 (poor)
PIT vs LHP
L6
wRC+41 (poor)K%32.0 (poor)Whiff%29.4 (poor)HH%32.1 (below)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%27.5 (below)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%38.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 3.78 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 2.06 (elite)2d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+102-1.5 (+172)O7.5 (+100)SDP-108+1.5 (-200)U7.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-122-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (+114)SDP+105+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-160/+124)SDP3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBraxton Ashcraft5.5 (+125 / -156)17.5 (-142 / +118)Robbie Ray5.5 (-110 / -102)16.5 (-135 / +112)
Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18vs W8.08045011
W8.08045011Aug 13@ W9.085103111
W9.085103111Aug 6@ L5.08253134
L5.08253134Aug 1@ W5.06952111
W5.06952111Jul 26vs W6.09357244
W6.09357244Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18@ W6.09143311
W6.09143311Aug 12vs W4.08442322
W4.08442322Aug 7vs L5.09227544
L5.09227544Jul 30@ W6.08664111
W6.08664111Jul 25vs W6.08056200
W6.08056200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Robbie Ray
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.02.25elite7.55.03.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 8vs W6.09374411
W6.09374411Aug 6@ W6.010486222
W6.010486222home starts5.03.60good3.75.03.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W4.08442322
W4.08442322Aug 7vs L5.09227544
L5.09227544Jul 25vs W6.08056200
W6.08056200Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-2 vs SDP this season (3 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 4-1 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 6.2 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.2 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-1 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 2-1 vs PIT this season (3 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 2-2 in Robbie Ray's last 4 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 in Robbie Ray's last 3 home starts.
- SDP average 3.2 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 4 starts.
- SDP average 2.7 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-3 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 4 starts.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- SDP — Robbie Ray: Whiff% 23.3 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 15.2 shows
- SDP offense: Whiff% 26.4 (last 6) runs well above what K% 19.5 shows
- PIT bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- SDP bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g)
- PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: recent opponents low-K: MIL 18%, DET 18%
- SDP — Robbie Ray: 2026-08-07: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.00 ERA equivalent
- TREND: PIT — was shut out 4-0 last time out (2026-08-23)
CIN @ SFG✓9:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
CIN @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Chase Burns R
xERA1.98 (elite)ERA3.63 (good)K%31.0 (elite)Whiff%30.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%2.3 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs98BB%7.0 (good)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+105 (avg)K%32.2 (poor)Whiff%29.8 (poor)HH%53.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%23.1 (avg)Whiff%24.7 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
C. Whisenhunt L
xERA4.39 (avg)ERA7.62 (poor)K%10.6 (poor)Whiff%22.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%48.0 (poor)Barrel%4.0 (elite)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82BB%12.1 (below)
CIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+91 (below)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%15.9 (elite)HH%29.8 (poor)
L12
wRC+97 (avg)K%27.8 (below)Whiff%18.4 (above)HH%30.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 5.13 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 3.40 (good)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN-154-1.5 (+108)O7.5 (+102)SFG+147+1.5 (-125)U7.0 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN-192-0.5 (-128)O3.5 (-130)SFG+154+0.5 (-102)U3.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN4.5 (+114/-145)2.5 (+124/-160)SFG2.5 (-140/+114)1.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChase Burns6.5 (-104 / -116)17.5 (-108 / -115)C. Whisenhunt4.5 (+102 / -117)15.5 (+108 / -143)
Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs W5.010486222
W5.010486222Aug 14vs W7.09384000
W7.09384000Aug 8@ L5.19666355
L5.19666355Aug 2vs W6.08892211
W6.08892211Jul 28vs L5.08945215
L5.08945215C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18@ L4.08019267
L4.08019267Aug 11vs W5.29624311
W5.29624311Aug 5@ L3.17045344
L3.17045344Jul 31@ L3.17437466
L3.17437466Jul 26vs L5.07875244
L5.07875244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.00.00elite4.02.01.0(1)
at SFG—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 16vs L6.08742100
L6.08742100C. Whisenhunt
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN—
home starts5.14.09avg4.34.03.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs W5.29624311
W5.29624311Jul 26vs L5.07875244
L5.07875244Jul 9vs W5.28743422
W5.28743422Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-1 vs SFG this season (3 games).
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 4-1 in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 4.6 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 5.2 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-1 to the over in Chase Burns's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 1-2 vs CIN this season (3 games).
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG have lost 4 straight.
- SFG are 1-4 in C. Whisenhunt's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 2-1 in C. Whisenhunt's last 3 home starts.
- SFG average 1.6 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 5.0 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 2-3 to the over in C. Whisenhunt's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-1 to the over in C. Whisenhunt's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
61°F, Overcast, Wind 13 mph W
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: Whiff% 22.3 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 10.6 shows
- CIN offense: K% 25.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 15.9 supports
- CIN — Chase Burns: last start: 104 pitches over 5.0 IP
- CIN — Chase Burns: 2026-08-08: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: recent opponents low-K: TEX 18%, CLE 15%
Chase Burns o6.5 Ks (-104)
Burns has struck out 6, 8 and 8 over his last 3 starts behind a 31.0% K rate and 30.6% whiff, and San Francisco has struck out at a 32.2% clip vs RHP over their last 6 with a 29.8% whiff rate — a lineup missing far more bats than its 23.1% mark over the last 12 suggested. His outs line at 17.5 puts him in line for close to six innings, which is the length this number needs, and he reached 104 pitches last time out. Two of his last three starts already clear this number against lineups that make more contact than tonight's, and the price treats a strikeout-per-inning pace as a coin flip.
C. Whisenhunt u4.5 Ks (-117)
Whisenhunt has a 10.6% K rate over his last 3 starts with 4, 2 and 1 strikeouts in them, averaging 4.3 innings and 2.3 K per outing. Cincinnati's 25.0% K rate vs LHP over their last 6 sits well above the 15.9% whiff rate that supports it, so the strikeouts are not being earned on missed bats and that number is more fragile than it looks. His 12.1% walk rate over his last 3 keeps him from working deep enough for five punchouts, and at Oracle Park in 61-degree air the market is pricing an outing roughly double his recent strikeout output.