AI Picks · 4 Bets · Jul 9
ATL @ PIT o9.5 (+102)
Both starters have poor xERAs (Elder 6.09, Keller 6.07) — neither is an ace by any measure. Keller has an 8.51 ERA vs ATL in 2 starts and is at home where he owns a 6.19 ERA. Elder has a poor 12.21 ERA and 6.09 xERA. PIT offense is elite (wRC+ 167 in L12) and averages 6.2 RS at home in Keller's starts. ATL offense is solid at 107 wRC+. Both bullpens are average/below (ATL xERA 3.64, PIT 4.76). PIT's Barrel% of 13% and HH% of 46% signal elevated contact risk for Keller. Getting +102 on the over 9.5 with both poor starters and an elite offense makes this a value play.
Found at 6:37 AM ET
Drew Rasmussen o6.5 Ks (+125)
Rasmussen is in elite form: recent ERA 1.35, averaging 8.3 K/start over last 3 (5K vs KCR, 7K vs LAD, 13K vs BOS). His matchup history vs NYY is outstanding: 3gs, 0.95 ERA, 6.3 IP/gs, 6.3 K/gs avg. Today NYY is sporting a brutal wRC+ 41 vs RHP with 30.6% K rate — the most strikeout-prone offense on the board. Even calibrating for the 13K outlier vs BOS, Rasmussen's adjusted K expectation vs this NYY lineup is 7–8+. Getting +125 on a line that his recent average easily clears, against a lineup with 30%+ K rate, is strong value. Outs line 17.5 at -165 confirms the market expects a full, deep outing.
Found at 6:37 AM ET
SEA Team Total u4.5 (-125)
Bryce Miller is the best pitcher on the board by xERA (1.65, elite) with recent ERA 1.42 — he's locked in. SEA offense is below average (wRC+ 86 in L12) and will be the AWAY team, while MIA gets Janson Junk on the mound. The bet here is specifically on MIA holding SEA to few runs: Miller limits MIA, but the question is SEA's scoring. With Junk struggling (recent ERA 6.63, xERA 3.63, 45 days since last start) and MIA's elite offense (wRC+ 171), this game is likely to be lopsided — but SEA's scoring potential is capped by their below-average offense (wRC+ 86). SEA avg 3.6 RS in SP's recent starts. At -125, this is acceptable value for a team that scores under 4.5 runs frequently.
Found at 6:37 AM ET
Jesus Luzardo o7.5 Ks (+100)
Luzardo is the most dominant pitcher on the board: xERA 1.81 (elite), K% 38.4%, recent ERA 1.96, averaging 10.0 K/start over his last 3. CIN has a 22.5% K rate vs LHP — above average, slightly below the strikeout-prone lineups he's recently torched (WSN/MIA/TOR), but still a favorable matchup. Adjusted K expectation ~9–10 per start. The line of 7.5 is significantly below his recent average. Outs line of 17.5 is -138, confirming the market expects him to go deep (5.8+ IP), giving him plenty of innings to accumulate strikeouts. Getting +100 on a line that should clear easily is excellent value.
Found at 6:37 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
ATL @ 
PIT✓12:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
ATL @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Elder R
xERA6.09 (poor)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%41.1 (below avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA12.21IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs80BB%6.9
PIT vs RHP
wRC+167 (elite)K%26.6 (below avg)HH%40.9 (above avg)
Mitch Keller R
xERA6.07 (poor)K%12.0 (below avg)HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%12.7 (below avg)ERA5.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs85BB%2.7
ATL vs RHP
wRC+107 (avg)K%19.1 (above avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-120-1.5 (+138)O9.5 (+102)PIT+102+1.5 (-155)U9.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-112-0.5 (+120)O5.5 (+112)PIT-112+0.5 (-156)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderATLO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (+100)PITO4.5 (+110)U4.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Elder4.5 (+102 / -128)15.5 (+120 / +120)Mitch Keller3.5 (-152 / +120)16.5 (-113 / -112)
Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27@ 
L4.06945155
L4.06945155Jun 21vs 
L6.095612288
L6.095612288Jun 14@ 
L4.075210266
L4.075210266Jun 7vs W6.08842222
W6.08842222Jun 2vs 
W6.210366133
W6.210366133Mitch Keller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ 
L6.08318055
L6.08318055Jun 28vs 
W6.07945134
W6.07945134Jun 23vs 
L6.09247133
L6.09247133Jun 16@ 
W5.19674415
W5.19674415Jun 11vs 
L4.09837455
L4.09837455SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.03.756.03.51.0(2)
at PIT6.04.508.05.00.0(1)
Mitch Keller
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL3.78.515.05.04.0(2)
home starts5.36.193.76.32.0(3)
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 4-1 vs PIT this season (5 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-3 in Bryce Elder's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 2.4 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 2.2 runs/game in Bryce Elder's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-4 vs ATL this season (5 games).
- PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Mitch Keller's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 5.6 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.2 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 5.042d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 4.76 (below avg)ERA 4.502d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
83°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- PIT — Mitch Keller: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT — Mitch Keller: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATL bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL — Bryce Elder: 12 days since last start (2026-06-27) — may not be fully stretched out
- ATL — Bryce Elder: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — Mitch Keller: 2026-07-03: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- PIT — Mitch Keller: recent opponents high-K: SEA 27%, CIN 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
ATL @ PIT o9.5 (+102)
Both starters have poor xERAs (Elder 6.09, Keller 6.07) — neither is an ace by any measure. Keller has an 8.51 ERA vs ATL in 2 starts and is at home where he owns a 6.19 ERA. Elder has a poor 12.21 ERA and 6.09 xERA. PIT offense is elite (wRC+ 167 in L12) and averages 6.2 RS at home in Keller's starts. ATL offense is solid at 107 wRC+. Both bullpens are average/below (ATL xERA 3.64, PIT 4.76). PIT's Barrel% of 13% and HH% of 46% signal elevated contact risk for Keller. Getting +102 on the over 9.5 with both poor starters and an elite offense makes this a value play.
KCR @ NYM1:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
KCR @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Michael Wacha R
xERA3.21 (good)K%23.2 (good)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA2.61IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs103BB%3.7
NYM vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%43.1 (above avg)
Sean Manaea L
xERA3.84 (avg)K%18.2 (avg)HH%41.3 (below avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA7.24IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs95BB%7.6
KCR vs LHP
wRC+96 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)HH%41.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+128+1.5 (-166)O9.0 (-118)NYM-145-1.5 (+140)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+110+0.5 (-128)O5.5 (-106)NYM-138-0.5 (-102)U5.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderKCRO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)NYMO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Wacha4.5 (-138 / +123)17.5 (-158 / +135)Sean Manaea4.5 (-159 / +134)16.5 (-105 / -122)
Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4vs 
L6.010578144
L6.010578144Jun 27@ 
L7.210576111
L7.210576111Jun 22@ 
W7.09956111
W7.09956111Jun 16@ L6.09037133
L6.09037133Jun 11vs 
L7.010229144
L7.010229144Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4@ L5.010845136
L5.010845136Jun 29@ L5.29043222
L5.29043222Jun 24vs 
L3.08646234
L3.08646234Jun 18@ W5.19556123
W5.19556123Jun 13vs L6.08464022
L6.08464022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Wacha
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.01.805.02.03.0(1)
at NYM—
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts4.55.005.05.01.0(2)
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 1-1 vs NYM this season (2 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 2.0 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 2.6 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 1-1 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 1-4 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 0-2 in Sean Manaea's last 2 home starts.
- NYM average 3.2 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 3.0 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 5.05 (below avg)ERA 7.112d stress Stressed (11.7 IP/2g)
NYM
xERA 4.45 (avg)ERA 7.522d stress Stressed (12.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
87°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph SSW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.05 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen stressed (11.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM bullpen stressed (12.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR — Michael Wacha: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYM — Sean Manaea: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- NYM — Sean Manaea: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- NYM — Sean Manaea: 2026-06-24: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both bullpens are poor (KCR xERA 5.05, NYM xERA 4.45) and both starters are average; both teams generating below-average run support in pitcher's recent starts; Wacha's K prop at -138 over 4.5 is too expensive for only 3.3 K/start recent average.
NYY @ TBR✓1:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
NYY @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Yarbrough L
xERA3.85 (avg)K%15.0 (below avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA6.23IP/gs4.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs27BB%10.0
TBR vs LHP
wRC+96 (avg)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%28.3 (poor)
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA3.82 (avg)K%17.1 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA3.71IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%5.7
NYY vs RHP
wRC+41 (poor)K%30.6 (poor)HH%44.2 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+134+1.5 (-163)O7.5 (-110)TBR-155-1.5 (+142)U7.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+152+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (+112)TBR-192-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderNYYO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-125)TBRO4.5 (+120)U3.5 (+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Yarbrough——Drew Rasmussen6.5 (+125 / -148)17.5 (-165 / +124)
Ryan Yarbrough · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4vs 
L1.2*3521111
L1.2*3521111Jun 30vs 
L2.0*2602023
L2.0*2602023Jun 29vs L0.2*1911100
L0.2*1911100Jun 26@ 
L1.1*2211111
L1.1*2211111Jun 25@ L0.2*900000
L0.2*900000Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4@ 
L5.07726155
L5.07726155Jun 28vs 
W6.09953100
W6.09953100Jun 22vs L6.09054222
L6.09054222Jun 16@ L7.010276011
L7.010276011Jun 10vs W7.097132100
W7.097132100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Yarbrough
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR4.02.252.01.03.0(1)
at TBR—
Drew Rasmussen
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY6.30.956.33.71.0(3)
home starts6.30.957.73.01.3(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-7 vs TBR this season (9 games).
- NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 7-2 vs NYY this season (9 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.4 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 2.34 (elite)ERA 1.632d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.59 (good)ERA 2.702d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 5
- NYY — Ryan Yarbrough: small sample (4.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- NYY — Ryan Yarbrough: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- NYY — Ryan Yarbrough: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-04, 2026-06-30 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: 2026-07-04: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Drew Rasmussen o6.5 Ks (+125)
Rasmussen is in elite form: recent ERA 1.35, averaging 8.3 K/start over last 3 (5K vs KCR, 7K vs LAD, 13K vs BOS). His matchup history vs NYY is outstanding: 3gs, 0.95 ERA, 6.3 IP/gs, 6.3 K/gs avg. Today NYY is sporting a brutal wRC+ 41 vs RHP with 30.6% K rate — the most strikeout-prone offense on the board. Even calibrating for the 13K outlier vs BOS, Rasmussen's adjusted K expectation vs this NYY lineup is 7–8+. Getting +125 on a line that his recent average easily clears, against a lineup with 30%+ K rate, is strong value. Outs line 17.5 at -165 confirms the market expects a full, deep outing.
CHC @ 
BAL1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsRainy
CHC @ BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
David Peterson L
xERA5.69 (poor)K%15.9 (below avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA10.80IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs80BB%7.9
BAL vs LHP
wRC+72 (poor)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
Trevor Rogers L
xERA2.82 (elite)K%24.6 (good)HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA0.49IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs92BB%10.1
CHC vs LHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%22.3 (avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+109+1.5 (-175)O9.5 (-112)BAL-125-1.5 (+158)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC+102+0.5 (-138)O5.5 (-102)BAL-128-0.5 (+104)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderCHCO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)BALO4.5 (-130)U4.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UDavid Peterson4.5 (+128 / -151)Trevor Rogers4.5 (-120 / +100)
David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs 
L3.2913931010
L3.2913931010Jun 27@ W5.26925022
W5.26925022Jun 21@ L4.07956245
L4.07956245Jun 15@ L3.0*5412233
L3.0*5412233Jun 10vs L3.2*6317266
L3.2*6317266Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ W5.09342500
W5.09342500Jun 26vs W6.18775011
W6.18775011Jun 20@ W7.09661200
W7.09661200Jun 14vs 
L6.08245222
L6.08245222Jun 9vs L5.29736133
L5.29736133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL7.01.296.05.00.0(1)
at BAL7.01.296.05.00.0(1)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC8.01.128.04.00.0(1)
home starts5.83.124.75.31.0(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 2-0 vs BAL this season (2 games).
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 1-1 in David Peterson's last 2 starts.
- CHC are 1-0 in David Peterson's last 1 away starts.
- CHC average 4.5 runs/game in David Peterson's last 2 starts.
- CHC average 8.0 runs/game in David Peterson's last 1 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 0-2 vs CHC this season (2 games).
- BAL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-4 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 3.2 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 3.2 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.43 (avg)ERA 4.912d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.04 (elite)ERA 2.662d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Rainy
84°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph S
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (12%)
Flags · 3
- CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-15, 2026-06-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — David Peterson: recent opponents low-K: MIL 15%, STL 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: rain risk 12% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
Rain risk flag (12%) disqualifies this game per rules; also Peterson is severely struggling (recent ERA 9.00) but BAL vs LHP is poor (wRC+ 72), creating muddled signals.
CLE @ MIN1:40 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
CLE @ MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gavin Williams R
xERA3.60 (good)K%30.8 (elite)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA4.30IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs92BB%9.2
MIN vs RHP
wRC+130 (elite)K%18.6 (above avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
Bailey Ober R
xERA8.23 (poor)K%9.7 (poor)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%16.4 (poor)ERA8.59IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs8.3PC/gs85BB%4.2
CLE vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%24.8 (below avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-130-1.5 (+126)O8.5 (-114)MIN+110+1.5 (-145)U8.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-132-0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-120)MIN+106+0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderCLEO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)MINO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGavin Williams6.5 (+125 / +126)17.5 (-114 / -110)Bailey Ober3.5 (-150 / +130)15.5 (+100 / -132)
Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs W4.27965233
W4.27965233Jun 28vs W5.010366323
W5.010366323Jun 22@ L5.09585122
L5.09585122Jun 17@ L5.08747277
L5.08747277Jun 8vs L5.09054334
L5.09054334Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 30@ L4.297312178
L4.297312178May 24@ W5.08237044
W5.08237044May 17vs W5.07716233
W5.07716233May 12vs 
W9.08972000
W9.08972000May 6@ L5.08236255
L5.08236255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.03.006.75.31.7(3)
at MIN6.01.506.02.02.0(1)
Bailey Ober
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE4.37.622.75.71.0(3)
home starts6.71.803.34.01.3(3)
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-4 vs MIN this season (5 games).
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have lost 4 straight.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 4.8 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-1 vs CLE this season (5 games).
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN have won 4 straight.
- MIN are 3-2 in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 4-1 in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 5.0 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.4 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 5.16 (below avg)ERA 3.502d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
MIN
xERA 4.85 (below avg)ERA 5.792d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph N
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- MIN — Bailey Ober: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.16 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CLE bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIN — Bailey Ober: 40 days since last start (2026-05-30) — may not be fully stretched out
AI Analysis
Williams is struggling recently (recent ERA 7.20) with a short last outing (79 pitches, possible hook); Ober has a 40-day layoff concern and massive Barrel% (16%); CLE bullpen xERA 5.16 is disqualifying for side bets; no clean edge identified.
BOS @ CHW2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
BOS @ CHWMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
TBD
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHW
No data
Anthony Kay L
xERA2.92 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)ERA3.29IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs74BB%8.5
BOS vs LHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%29.3 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-103-1.5 (+157)O9.0 (-108)CHW-112+1.5 (-178)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-108+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-140)CHW-116-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderBOSO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-125)CHWO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UTBD—Anthony Kay4.5 (+116 / -129)
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ L4.04821211
L4.04821211Jun 28vs L3.27327135
L3.27327135Jun 22vs W6.010183200
W6.010183200Jun 17@ L4.08626144
L4.08626144Jun 12vs W5.08974122
W5.08974122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts4.73.175.74.71.3(3)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 2-0 vs CHW this season (2 games).
- BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have won 5 straight.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 0-2 vs BOS this season (2 games).
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 5.2 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 5.6 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.36 (good)ERA 4.502d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
CHW
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 2.772d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- BOS — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CHW bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Anthony Kay: last start: 48 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHW — Anthony Kay: 2026-06-28: 3 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHW — Anthony Kay: recent opponents high-K: CLE 27%, CLE 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
BOS pitcher is TBD with NO STATS — disqualifying factor per rules; cannot build a clean bet around an unknown starter.
ATH @ DET6:40 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
ATH @ DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jack Perkins R
xERA4.47 (avg)K%32.3 (elite)HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA8.56IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs83BB%10.8
DET vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%25.5 (below avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Framber Valdez L
xERA3.52 (good)K%14.5 (below avg)HH%41.0 (below avg)Barrel%6.6 (good)ERA5.29IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs90BB%5.3
ATH vs LHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%38.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+115+1.5 (-171)O9.0 (-105)DET-134-1.5 (+150)U9.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+108+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-140)DET-135-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderATHO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)DETO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJack Perkins5.5 (-125 / -105)14.5 (-180 / +125)Framber Valdez5.5 (+114 / -132)—
Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs L3.29187477
L3.29187477Jun 27@ 
L5.08154122
L5.08154122Jun 21vs L5.07884244
L5.07884244Jun 16vs L5.08566233
L5.08566233Jun 10vs W4.08945333
W4.08945333Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2@ L5.08719255
L5.08719255Jun 27vs L6.08829044
L6.08829044Jun 22vs W6.09484211
W6.09484211Jun 16@ L6.09266301
L6.09266301Jun 10vs L5.07526244
L5.07526244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH6.52.086.56.03.5(2)
home starts5.74.764.06.31.3(3)
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-2 vs DET this season (2 games).
- ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 5 straight.
- ATH are 1-4 in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 0-2 in Jack Perkins's last 2 away starts.
- ATH average 4.6 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 1.5 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 2 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-0 vs ATH this season (2 games).
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET have won 4 straight.
- DET are 1-4 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 4.2 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.8 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 5.33 (poor)ERA 5.742d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 2.89 (elite)ERA 4.702d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Overcast, Wind 11 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- ATH — Jack Perkins: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.33 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent opponents high-K: LAA 26%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- DET — Framber Valdez: 2026-07-02: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- DET — Framber Valdez: recent opponents low-K: HOU 14%, TEX 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Framber Valdez is solid but his recent ERA was inflated by one bad start; ATH bullpen is a disqualifying factor (xERA 5.33) for DET full-game ML, and F5 DET ML at -135 exceeds the -150 pricing threshold, leaving no clean bet.
SEA @ MIA✓6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
SEA @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Miller R
xERA1.65 (elite)K%41.9 (elite)HH%27.8 (elite)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA2.04IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs82BB%0.0
MIA vs RHP
wRC+171 (elite)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%39.3 (avg)
Janson Junk R
xERA3.63 (good)K%13.5 (below avg)HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%6.6 (good)ERA9.19IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs8.7PC/gs93BB%4.0
SEA vs RHP
wRC+86 (below avg)K%26.8 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-146-1.5 (+116)O8.0 (-110)MIA+125+1.5 (-137)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-166-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (+104)MIA+132+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-135)
Team Totals
OverUnderSEAO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-125)MIAO3.5 (-104)U3.5 (-122)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Miller6.5 (+126 / +130)17.5 (-158 / +122)Janson Junk3.5 (-125 / +100)—
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2vs W7.09082000
W7.09082000Jun 25@ L5.290115033
L5.290115033Jun 19vs L5.06673011
L5.06673011Jun 12@ W8.09174022
W8.09174022Jun 6@ W6.09491200
W6.09491200Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 25@ W5.09338011
W5.09338011May 20vs L5.08638088
L5.08638088May 15@ L5.2100410377
L5.2100410377May 9vs W6.09467244
W6.09467244May 4vs L5.19265011
L5.19265011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA—
home starts5.47.275.06.70.7(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 0-2 vs MIA this season (2 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-2 in Bryce Miller's last 4 away starts.
- SEA average 3.6 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.5 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 4 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-0 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA have won 5 straight.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 3.8 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 3.6 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 4.602d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
MIA
xERA 3.81 (avg)ERA 6.472d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- MIA bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SEA — Bryce Miller: recent opponents high-K: PIT 27%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- MIA — Janson Junk: 45 days since last start (2026-05-25) — may not be fully stretched out
SEA Team Total u4.5 (-125)
Bryce Miller is the best pitcher on the board by xERA (1.65, elite) with recent ERA 1.42 — he's locked in. SEA offense is below average (wRC+ 86 in L12) and will be the AWAY team, while MIA gets Janson Junk on the mound. The bet here is specifically on MIA holding SEA to few runs: Miller limits MIA, but the question is SEA's scoring. With Junk struggling (recent ERA 6.63, xERA 3.63, 45 days since last start) and MIA's elite offense (wRC+ 171), this game is likely to be lopsided — but SEA's scoring potential is capped by their below-average offense (wRC+ 86). SEA avg 3.6 RS in SP's recent starts. At -125, this is acceptable value for a team that scores under 4.5 runs frequently.
PHI @ CIN✓7:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
PHI @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA1.81 (elite)K%38.4 (elite)HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.57IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs98BB%8.2
CIN vs LHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%22.5 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Brady Singer R
xERA3.86 (avg)K%27.1 (good)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)ERA3.86IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs99BB%10.0
PHI vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%43.1 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-155-1.5 (-102)O9.5 (-104)CIN+138+1.5 (-114)U9.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-174-0.5 (-120)O5.5 (+114)CIN+136+0.5 (-108)U5.5 (-148)
Team Totals
OverUnderPHIO5.5 (+104)U5.5 (-130)CINO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJesus Luzardo7.5 (+100 / -122)17.5 (-138 / +115)Brady Singer5.5 (+115 / +132)16.5 (-109 / -118)
Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4@ W6.09594011
W6.09594011Jun 28@ W5.09664311
W5.09664311Jun 23@ W6.2104135315
W6.2104135315Jun 16vs W7.010695222
W7.010695222Jun 10@ W5.29684411
W5.29684411Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs L5.09363523
L5.09363523Jun 28@ L4.19869055
L4.19869055Jun 22vs L7.010672200
L7.010672200Jun 16vs W5.09153311
W5.09153311Jun 10@ L6.09556122
L6.09556122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.07.884.55.52.5(2)
at CIN—
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI6.00.006.03.00.0(1)
home starts5.71.596.02.73.3(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 2-3 vs CIN this season (5 games).
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 5-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 5-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 8.0 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 7.2 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-2 vs PHI this season (5 games).
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 2.8 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 2.4 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.72 (good)ERA 5.822d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 4.102d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- CIN — Brady Singer: 2026-06-28: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CIN — Brady Singer: recent opponents high-K: PIT 27%, BAL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Jesus Luzardo o7.5 Ks (+100)
Luzardo is the most dominant pitcher on the board: xERA 1.81 (elite), K% 38.4%, recent ERA 1.96, averaging 10.0 K/start over his last 3. CIN has a 22.5% K rate vs LHP — above average, slightly below the strikeout-prone lineups he's recently torched (WSN/MIA/TOR), but still a favorable matchup. Adjusted K expectation ~9–10 per start. The line of 7.5 is significantly below his recent average. Outs line of 17.5 is -138, confirming the market expects him to go deep (5.8+ IP), giving him plenty of innings to accumulate strikeouts. Getting +100 on a line that should clear easily is excellent value.
MIL @ STL7:45 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
MIL @ STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Logan Henderson R
xERA3.66 (good)K%31.7 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.9 (below avg)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs81BB%8.3
STL vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)HH%41.7 (above avg)
Andre Pallante R
xERA3.27 (good)K%10.5 (poor)HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%4.6 (elite)ERA2.95IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs95BB%2.6
MIL vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%45.9 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-132-1.5 (+129)O8.5 (-108)STL+115+1.5 (-150)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-130-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-110)STL+104+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderMILO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)STLO3.5 (-125)U3.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Henderson4.5 (-115 / -108)—Andre Pallante3.5 (-138 / +119)17.5 (-109 / -122)
Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 22vs W5.08572300
W5.08572300May 16@ W5.08476111
W5.08476111May 10vs W5.07454122
W5.07454122May 3@ L6.07683022
L6.07683022Apr 4@ L2.03533122
L2.03533122Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3@ W5.210225100
W5.210225100Jun 27vs L6.298411155
L6.298411155Jun 22vs W6.08526011
W6.08526011Jun 16vs W7.09264022
W7.09264022Jun 10@ W6.09353222
W6.09353222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.05.963.35.02.7(3)
home starts6.43.754.07.00.3(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 7-3 vs STL this season (10 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-3 in Logan Henderson's last 4 away starts.
- MIL average 3.0 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 1.5 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 4 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 3-7 vs MIL this season (10 games).
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 6.6 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 3.6 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.85 (elite)ERA 2.512d stress Fresh (7.3 IP/3g)
STL
xERA 3.39 (good)ERA 4.342d stress Elevated (14.7 IP/3g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph SE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- MIL — Logan Henderson: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- MIL bullpen fresh (7.3 IP over 3g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- STL bullpen elevated (14.7 IP over 3g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — Logan Henderson: 48 days since last start (2026-05-22) — may not be fully stretched out
- MIL — Logan Henderson: recent opponents low-K: MIN 19%, LAD 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- STL — Andre Pallante: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- STL — Andre Pallante: 2026-06-27: 5 ER in 6.2 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — Andre Pallante: recent opponents low-K: ARI 19%, MIA 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Henderson has a 48-day layoff concern and fresh MIL bullpen (xERA 2.85) may result in early hook; Pallante is solid but high pitch count last start; no compelling edge with both teams at average/poor offense vs RHP (STL wRC+ 71, MIL wRC+ 112 but generating only 1.5 RS away recently).
LAA @ TEX8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
LAA @ TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Reid Detmers L
xERA4.83 (below avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%42.0 (below avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)ERA6.48IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs98BB%13.0
TEX vs LHP
wRC+165 (elite)K%17.7 (above avg)HH%30.0 (below avg)
Nathan Eovaldi R
xERA2.15 (elite)K%37.0 (elite)HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%2.3 (elite)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs90BB%4.1
LAA vs RHP
wRC+74 (poor)K%25.6 (below avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+119+1.5 (-191)O7.0 (-110)TEX-136-1.5 (+160)U7.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+104+0.5 (-148)O3.5 (-120)TEX-130-0.5 (+114)U3.5 (-108)
Team Totals
OverUnderLAAO3.5 (+110)U3.5 (-136)TEXO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UReid Detmers6.5 (+124 / -132)17.5 (-158 / +119)Nathan Eovaldi7.5 (+122 / +122)18.5 (+116 / -150)
Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs L5.010457355
L5.010457355Jun 27vs W5.29984322
W5.29984322Jun 21@ W6.09046455
W6.09046455Jun 16@ W7.09034000
W7.09034000Jun 10vs W7.08991011
W7.08991011Nathan Eovaldi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2vs W5.08596133
W5.08596133Jun 26@ W7.09295100
W7.09295100Jun 21vs W6.09497133
W6.09497133Jun 14@ W7.09466133
W7.09466133Jun 9@ L5.28834344
L5.28834344SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX8.01.1214.01.00.0(1)
at TEX—
Nathan Eovaldi
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.71.805.35.31.3(3)
home starts6.05.508.05.71.3(3)
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-1 vs TEX this season (5 games).
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 4-1 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 3-2 in Reid Detmers's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 5.2 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 6.4 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 1-4 vs LAA this season (5 games).
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 4-1 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 5.6 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.8 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.82 (avg)ERA 4.662d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 5.152d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- LAA — Reid Detmers: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TEX bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAA — Reid Detmers: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
TEX vs LHP is elite (wRC+ 165) but Detmers is hot recently (recent ERA 2.70); Eovaldi is struggling (recent ERA 4.95 vs elite xERA 2.15 — acute struggle); the K prop for Detmers is interesting but LAA offense is too weak (wRC+ 74) to trust for side bets, and total of 7.0 already prices in the pitching quality.
ARI @ SDP9:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
ARI @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Merrill Kelly R
xERA7.61 (poor)K%14.1 (below avg)HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA5.29IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs94BB%9.0
SDP vs RHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%35.4 (avg)
Griffin Canning R
xERA3.81 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA7.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs11.0PC/gs63BB%11.4
ARI vs RHP
wRC+71 (poor)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+108+1.5 (-193)O9.0 (+100)SDP-125-1.5 (+164)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+100+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-148)SDP-124-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (+114)
Team Totals
OverUnderARIO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)SDPO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMerrill Kelly4.5 (+133 / +138)17.5 (-129 / +110)Griffin Canning4.5 (+132 / +125)—
Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4vs W5.09268222
W5.09268222Jun 28@ L6.09338255
L6.09338255Jun 22@ L6.09627333
L6.09627333Jun 16vs L5.188411166
L5.188411166Jun 11@ L6.07414222
L6.07414222Griffin Canning · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 4@ L4.0*7342211
L4.0*7342211Jun 29@ L4.17535222
L4.17535222Jun 23vs W0.2*4024144
W0.2*4024144Jun 17@ W4.1*7724311
W4.1*7724311Jun 12@ L5.09366577
L5.09366577SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP6.03.755.55.50.5(2)
at SDP7.01.294.04.00.0(1)
Griffin Canning
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.01.806.06.01.0(1)
home starts5.63.215.53.02.5(2)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-3 vs SDP this season (5 games).
- ARI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 1.4 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 2.2 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-2 vs ARI this season (5 games).
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-4 in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Griffin Canning's last 5 home starts.
- SDP average 2.0 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 2.2 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.04 (good)ERA 2.572d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
SDP
xERA 4.10 (avg)ERA 6.962d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
68°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: 2026-06-28: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SDP — Griffin Canning: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-04, 2026-06-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SDP — Griffin Canning: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- SDP — Griffin Canning: 2026-06-12: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are in poor form (Kelly xERA 7.61, Canning recent ERA 12.60) but the split total lines (O9.0/U8.5) and Canning's bullpen appearances/short last outing create too much uncertainty about his availability and pitch count; no clean edge.
COL @ SFG9:45 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
COL @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Feltner R
xERA2.78 (elite)K%15.5 (below avg)HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%5.4 (good)ERA2.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%5.6
SFG vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)
C. Whisenhunt L
xERA4.06 (avg)K%8.7 (poor)HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA3.60IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs85BB%8.7
COL vs LHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%27.9 (poor)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+120+1.5 (-169)O8.5 (+100)SFG-142-1.5 (+155)U8.0 (-101)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Feltner3.5 (-150 / +130)16.5 (-125 / -106)C. Whisenhunt——
Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 3vs W6.08896023
W6.08896023Jun 28@ L6.08205012
L6.08205012Jun 22vs W6.09324422
W6.09324422Jun 16@ W4.210476322
W4.210476322Jun 11vs L4.17534366
L4.17534366C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 17@ W5.08526222
W5.08526222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.01.505.55.00.0(2)
at SFG—
C. Whisenhunt
IPERAKHBB
vs COL—
home starts4.76.433.75.02.7(3)
Trends · COL
- COL are 4-2 vs SFG this season (6 games).
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 3-2 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-3 in Ryan Feltner's last 4 away starts.
- COL average 5.6 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.2 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 4 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-4 vs COL this season (6 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 1-0 in C. Whisenhunt's last 1 starts.
- SFG average 7.0 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 1 starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 3.87 (avg)ERA 4.002d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 3.05 (good)ERA 6.152d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Weather · Windy
63°F, Clear, Wind 19 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- SFG bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- COL — Ryan Feltner: high-K outing 2026-07-03 (9 Ks vs avg 3.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- SFG — C. Whisenhunt: 22 days since last start (2026-06-17) — may not be fully stretched out
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 19 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
AI Analysis
Wind blowing out 19mph creates OVER pressure but Whisenhunt is a massive unknown (tiny 5.0 IP sample, 22-day layoff); Feltner is struggling recently despite elite xERA; the split total (O8.5/U8.0) reflects the wind already — market priced in, no edge.