AI Picks · 1 Bet · Oct 1
2u Picks
1u Picks
Aaron Nola Outs o11.5 (-135)
PHI @ ATL · 8:11 PM ET
Nola has faced Atlanta three times this season, all in the last 20 days, and gone 14, 21 and 19 outs in those starts — every one clearing this line comfortably, with two of the three stretching past 18 outs. His lone short outing in the current 3-start window came against Tampa Bay (1.0 IP, 3 ER, 21 pitches), a single disaster that dragged his overall IP/gs to 4.7 even though the other two starts in that span averaged a 3.00 ERA equivalent over 6-7 innings. Atlanta's lineup has a modest 21.0% K% and 7.6% walk rate vs RHP over its last 6, not a profile that runs up pitch counts or forces an early exit. The market's own no-vig number already leans over at 54%, but it has not caught up to how consistently Nola has worked deep specifically against this club, and the price still pays well below where his head-to-head track record puts him.
Found at 10:41 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
PHI @ 
ATL✓8:00 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
PHI @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Aaron Nola R
xERA4.76 (below)ERA4.50 (below)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%23.3 (good)BB%7.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%7.9 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs63
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+74 (poor)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%23.2 (avg)BB%7.6 (below)HH%48.2 (elite)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (avg)BB%7.9 (below)HH%41.8 (above)
Grant Holmes RO
xERA7.73 (poor)ERA3.21 (good)K%8.5 (poor)Whiff%24.5 (good)BB%8.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%51.0 (poor)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs71
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%16.0 (above)Whiff%20.6 (above)BB%9.6 (above)HH%39.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%19.7 (above)BB%11.9 (elite)HH%36.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 5.98 (poor)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
ATL
xERA 4.73 (below)ERA 4.17 (avg)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-110-1.5 (+160)O7.5 (+100)ATL-106+1.5 (-185)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-132-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (+112)ATL+106+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UPHI3.5 (-125/-102)ATL3.5 (-106/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAaron Nola4.5 (+120 / +102)11.5 (-135 / +106)Grant Holmes——
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26 '26vs 
L1.02104033
L1.02104033Sep 23 '26vs 
L6.08884144
L6.08884144Sep 17 '26@ 
W7.08143300
W7.08143300Sep 11 '26@ L6.110136322
L6.110136322Sep 6 '26vs L7.09354111
L7.09354111Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
L4.0*5413311
L4.0*5413311Sep 19 '26@ 
W6.08748022
W6.08748022Sep 13 '26vs L4.07105222
L4.07105222Sep 7 '26@ L6.08963200
L6.08963200Sep 2 '26@ 
W3.02610000
W3.02610000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.84.68below4.75.72.3(3)
at ATL5.26.99poor4.56.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 11 '26@ L6.110136322
L6.110136322Sep 6 '26vs L7.09354111
L7.09354111Apr 26 '26@ L4.210167366
L4.210167366Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.32.81elite3.35.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 13 '26vs L4.07105222
L4.07105222Sep 7 '26@ L6.08963200
L6.08963200Apr 24 '26vs W6.08947333
W6.08947333home starts4.18.11poor2.06.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 13 '26vs L4.07105222
L4.07105222Aug 28 '26vs 
W5.08438133
W5.08438133Aug 15 '26vs 
L3.26536366
L3.26536366Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-10 vs ATL this season (15 games).
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 1-4 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 2.8 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 3.6 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-2 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 10-5 vs PHI this season (15 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 5.0 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.4 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 4-1 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-0 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph ESE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- OPENER: ATL start Ray Kerr (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 2.3 IP (longest 3.3)), with Grant Holmes (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — PHI's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- ATL — Grant Holmes: Whiff% 24.5 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 8.5 shows
- PHI — Aaron Nola: last start: 21 pitches over 1.0 IP news ↗
- PHI — Aaron Nola: 2026-09-26: 3 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.00 ERA equivalent
- PHI — Aaron Nola: recent opponents high-K: NYM 25%, MIL 30%
- ATL — Grant Holmes: 12 days since last start (2026-09-19) news ↗
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-25
- ATL — Grant Holmes: recent opponents low-K: PHI 16%, PHI 16%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
Aaron Nola Outs o11.5 (-135)
Nola has faced Atlanta three times this season, all in the last 20 days, and gone 14, 21 and 19 outs in those starts — every one clearing this line comfortably, with two of the three stretching past 18 outs. His lone short outing in the current 3-start window came against Tampa Bay (1.0 IP, 3 ER, 21 pitches), a single disaster that dragged his overall IP/gs to 4.7 even though the other two starts in that span averaged a 3.00 ERA equivalent over 6-7 innings. Atlanta's lineup has a modest 21.0% K% and 7.6% walk rate vs RHP over its last 6, not a profile that runs up pitch counts or forces an early exit. The market's own no-vig number already leans over at 54%, but it has not caught up to how consistently Nola has worked deep specifically against this club, and the price still pays well below where his head-to-head track record puts him.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.