AI Picks · 13 Bets · Jul 2
STL F5 ML -128 (-128)
Dustin May has elite xERA (2.94) and sharp recent form (1.98 ERA last 3 starts, excluding the fluky June 21 blowup which was flagged as skewing). Waldrep is an extreme unknown — only 2.0 IP total over 3 starts, xERA 5.33, BB% 33%, essentially no qualifying stats. ATL offense is brutally cold (wRC+ 32 L12). May's matchup history vs ATL is acceptable (3.53 ERA). F5 is the right vehicle: STL bullpen xERA 5.04 disqualifies full-game reliance, but May is the edge here. Note: 11 days since last start and the June 21 short outing are flags, but that start was flagged as an outlier — his two surrounding starts showed 6.0 IP/0ER and 7.0 IP/1ER.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
Dustin May K o4.5 (-106)
May averages 8.0 K/start over his last 3 (6K, 9K, 9K — the June 21 low-K outing is flagged as an outlier day). His season K% is 27.0% and ATL has a 20.4% K rate vs RHP in L12 — an above-average strikeout lineup for him to exploit. The line of 4.5 is a very low bar given his recent K volume. Even adjusting for the June 21 fluky 2-K start, the adjusted expectation is comfortably above 4.5. ATL bullpen flag suggests manager may leave Waldrep in longer, reducing run impact but not K accumulation. Outs line of 16.5 is another concern but at -106, the K over 4.5 is priced reasonably and the matchup strongly supports it.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
STL @ ATL F5 u4.5 (+110)
Dustin May is in excellent form (recent ERA 1.98, xERA 2.94 elite) and has historically held ATL to a 3.53 ERA. ATL's offense is frigid (wRC+ 41 vs RHP — worst in today's slate). Waldrep is essentially a mystery (2.0 IP total), but his BB% 33% and small sample are worrying — however the F5 Under is really about May dominating a cold Atlanta lineup for 5 innings. STL's offense is below average (wRC+ 91) and the F5 total of 4.5 at +110 provides value: May's dominance limiting ATL runs is the primary driver, and STL won't light up even a vulnerable Waldrep given their below-avg offense. NOTE: May's last start (6 ER in 2 IP) is flagged as an outlier and 11 days rest introduces uncertainty; we limit to F5 to capture May's dominance while avoiding STL's shaky bullpen (xERA 5.17). The +110 price on the under adds value given the uncertainty on Waldrep.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
TBR ML (-124)
TBR offense is elite (wRC+ 155 vs RHP — best on today's slate) facing Kolek, who despite recent improvement still has a poor xERA 4.86 and no home/TBR history to draw confidence from. TBR bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.24). Seymour's IP concern (short recent outings, 12 days rest) is real, but TBR's bullpen is among the best today and will absorb early exits. KCR bullpen is disastrous (xERA 5.01, ERA 8.43 in L12). The issue: -124 is near the pricing limit. Flagging line_warning as the price is borderline. The TBR team total Over 5.5 at -104 may be the cleaner expression of this edge — TBR's hot offense vs a vulnerable Kolek + terrible KCR pen.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider TBR F5 ML -124 or TBR Team Total Over 5.5 (-104) to avoid KCR's elevated pen exposure while still capturing TBR's offensive edge.
TBR Team Total o5.5 (-104)
TBR offense is the hottest on today's slate (wRC+ 155 vs RHP) facing Kolek (xERA 4.86, ERA 6.43, 0-for-TBR in history). KCR bullpen is catastrophic (xERA 5.01, ERA 8.43 in L12). Even if Seymour exits early, TBR's elite offense will keep producing against KCR's weak staff. At -104, this is a near-even price for a team with a 155 wRC+ facing one of today's most vulnerable pitching matchups. The team total over is the cleanest expression of this offensive edge, removing dependency on TBR's pitching performance.
Found at 10:44 AM ET
DET @ TEX o7.5 (+102)
Eovaldi has been struggling significantly: recent ERA 5.44 vs xERA 1.88 — he is dramatically underperforming his expected numbers right now (recent ERA >> xERA), meaning he's been genuinely bad lately, not just unlucky. Detroit's offense is hot at wRC+ 120 in L12. TEX's bullpen has ERA 6.00 in L12 despite xERA 3.58, adding further late-game run risk. Framber Valdez is solid (xERA 2.72, recent ERA 2.81) but TEX hits LHP at wRC+ 119. Globe Life Field roof is closed (neutral weather). The key driver is Eovaldi's recent struggles against a strong DET offense — the 7.5 total feels low given Eovaldi's current form. Both offenses are above-average vs RHP/LHP respectively. Getting +102 on the over is slight value given multiple run-scoring factors.
Found at 4:30 PM ET
LAA @ SEA u7.5 (-114)
Bryce Miller is elite and piping hot: xERA 2.79, recent ERA 0.95 over last 3 starts, K% 39.1%. Urena has elite xERA 2.90 and recent ERA 3.00 (excluding the skewing June 26 blowup flagged as outlier — his other two starts were 7.0IP/3ER and 5.0IP/0ER). SEA offense is cold (wRC+ 80 L12). LAA wRC+ 105 is average. T-Mobile Park APF 91 is a strong pitcher's park. SEA bullpen xERA 3.00 is excellent. Under signals: Miller hot (recent ERA <1.00), Urena xERA elite (2.90), SEA offense cold (wRC+ 80), pitcher-friendly park. The -114 price is reasonable. Caution: Miller's Barrel% 13% is elevated and his matchup vs LAA historically shows 5.33 ERA in 3 starts — but that's a 2-year lookback against a different lineup composition. Current form dominates.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
SEA Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Bryce Miller is absolutely locked in: recent ERA 0.95 across 3 starts, xERA 2.79 (elite), averaging 7.3 K/start. SEA's own offense is cold at wRC+ 80 in L12 — below average. T-Mobile Park has an APF of 90 — strongly pitcher-friendly. Miller has allowed just 0.59 ERA at home in 3 starts. SEA has averaged only 2.0 RS in their last 3 home starts. Walbert Urena (xERA 2.90) will keep this game close. However, at -140 this is pricing in a lot already.
Found at 4:30 PM ET
Line Warning: Consider LAA Team Total Under 2.5 (+112) instead — Walbert Urena has xERA 2.90 and Miller is elite at home; LAA averages only 3.6 RS away. The plus-money is better value.
SDP @ LAD o9.0 (+100)
Both starters are poor: Vasquez xERA 7.80 (worst on the slate), ERA 10.03, HH% 47%, Barrel% 14%. Sasaki xERA 5.26, ERA 8.36, HH% 45%, Barrel% 14%, BB% 14%. Both offenses are elite: LAD wRC+ 144, SDP wRC+ 130. Vasquez has 6.59 ERA in 1 prior start vs LAD. Sasaki has 6.75 ERA vs SDP. The +100 price on Over 9.0 is exceptional value — getting even money on a game with two of the worst starters on the slate and two elite offenses. LAD bullpen is solid (xERA 3.12) but the starter exposure in the first 5-6 innings is severe. SDP bullpen xERA 3.76 is average. The market may be undervaluing this due to Sasaki's one dominant 7-inning shutout recently — but his season numbers (8.36 ERA, 5.26 xERA) tell the true story.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
PIT @ PHI o10.5 (+100)
Both offenses are elite: PIT wRC+ 162 (best on the slate), PHI wRC+ 158. Both are elite with high hard contact (PIT HH% 47.1%, PHI HH% 44.2%). Jared Jones xERA 3.90 is average, ERA 6.94 skewing high, averages only 3.9 IP/gs — this bullpen will get heavy usage and PIT bullpen xERA is 4.39. Rangel has small sample concerns (recent bullpen appearances June 27 and June 22 flagging availability/workload). Citizens Bank Park APF 108 favors offense. PIT provides 6.2 RS/game avg in Jones' recent starts. PHI 7-3 in L10 at home. Getting +100 on Over 10.5 with two elite offenses, a short-inning starter in Jones, and a hitter-friendly park is strong value.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
CIN @ MIL u6.5 (+105)
Elite pitching matchup with multiple under signals. Misiorowski is historically dominant: xERA 1.56 (elite), recent ERA 0.00 over last 3 starts (27.0 IP, 31K), going deep at 7.0 IP/gs. Burns has xERA 2.67 (elite) and recent ERA 2.24. CIN offense is ice cold (wRC+ 58 L12, K% 29.3% — extremely strikeout prone) vs one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. MIL wRC+ is 129 but Burns limits hard contact (HH% 27.5%, Barrel% 2.5%). Both bullpens are average (CIN xERA 3.93, MIL 4.09) — not dominant, but the starters project to go deep reducing exposure. The roof is closed removing weather variance. The +105 price on Under 6.5 is exceptional value given the pitching quality — market may be anchoring on MIL's 129 wRC+ without accounting for Burns' elite profile. Burns' flag about inflated Ks vs high-K teams actually reinforces the under: his stuff suppresses contact. Disqualifying factor check: no rain, no NO STATS, no bullpen xERA >5.0 disqualifier on either side for this total bet.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
J. Misiorowski K o9.5 (+108)
Misiorowski is averaging 10.3 K/start over his last 3 (15K, 8K, 8K) with an xERA of 1.56 and K% of 40.5% — the most dominant profile in today's slate. CIN K% vs RHP is 29.3% — an extremely strikeout-prone lineup. Recent high Ks came against PHI (moderate K%), COL (low K%), HOU (moderate K%) — today's CIN lineup (29.3% K rate) is actually MORE strikeout-prone than those opponents. Adjusted expectation is comfortably at 10+. The +108 odds on Over 9.5 offers positive expected value. One flag: last start was 107 pitches suggesting a possible shorter leash today — but even in a 7-inning outing at his K rate, he projects for 9-10 Ks. The Outs line at 18.5 (-180) reflects market confidence he goes deep, supporting K accumulation.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
MIA @ COL o12.0 (-105)
Maximum over conditions. Both starters are struggling: Gusto recent ERA 7.06 (xERA 5.13, HH% 46%, last outing only 33 pitches — extreme early hook risk), Lorenzen recent ERA 6.87 (xERA 3.81, HH% 59% — batters squaring up at an extraordinary rate). Coors Field APF 115 is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. MIA offense is elite (wRC+ 149 L12), COL wRC+ 113. COL bullpen is below average (xERA 4.76, ERA 5.85). The market already set this at 12.0 but we still like it: Gusto's 33-pitch last outing signals he could be pulled by inning 3-4, dumping this into a brutal STL bullpen (xERA 5.04... wait — MIA bullpen xERA 3.68 is solid, but COL bullpen xERA 4.76 is leaky). Multiple over factors: both starters struggling recently (≥2 signals), elite/above-avg offense on MIA side, COL bullpen average-to-poor, extreme park factor. The four over signals clearly align at Coors.
Found at 4:31 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
PIT @ 
PHI✓12:35 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHot
PIT @ PHI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jared Jones R
xERA3.90 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%8.1 (avg)ERA6.94IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs66BB%7.7
PHI vs RHP
wRC+165 (elite)K%23.2 (avg)HH%44.9 (above avg)
Alan Rangel R
xERA2.83 (elite)K%25.5 (good)HH%25.7 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA4.50IP/gs12.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs77BB%3.9
PIT vs RHP
wRC+151 (elite)K%26.9 (below avg)HH%46.7 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+110-1.5 (+158)O10.5 (+100)PHI-122-1.5 (+152)U10.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-112-0.5 (+116)O5.5 (-118)PHI-112+0.5 (-152)U5.5 (-110)
Team Totals
OverUnderPITO4.5 (-132)U4.5 (+105)PHIO5.5 (+110)U4.5 (+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJared Jones4.5 (-150 / +124)—Alan Rangel4.5 (+120 / +129)14.5 (-122 / +105)
Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2@ W4.07362211
W4.07362211Jun 27vs 
L4.28144134
L4.28144134Jun 21@ 
W3.04531211
W3.04531211Jun 15@ 
L4.07548155
L4.07548155Jun 10vs 
W4.07543122
W4.07543122Alan Rangel · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2vs L4.09043400
L4.09043400Jun 27@ 
L4.0*7044244
L4.0*7044244Jun 22@ 
L5.0*7245011
L5.0*7245011Apr 22@ 
L3.0*4453011
L3.0*4453011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jared Jones
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI4.02.256.02.02.0(1)
at PHI4.02.256.02.02.0(1)
Alan Rangel
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT4.00.004.03.04.0(1)
home starts4.00.004.03.04.0(1)
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-5 vs PHI this season (7 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-1 in Jared Jones's last 3 away starts.
- PIT average 6.2 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 5.0 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-2 vs PIT this season (7 games).
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 4.50 (avg)ERA 4.542d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
PHI
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 4.752d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
95°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- PIT — Jared Jones: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- PIT — Jared Jones: recent opponents high-K: ATH 28%, CIN 29% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- PHI — Alan Rangel: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-27, 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
PIT @ PHI o10.5 (+100)
Both offenses are elite: PIT wRC+ 162 (best on the slate), PHI wRC+ 158. Both are elite with high hard contact (PIT HH% 47.1%, PHI HH% 44.2%). Jared Jones xERA 3.90 is average, ERA 6.94 skewing high, averages only 3.9 IP/gs — this bullpen will get heavy usage and PIT bullpen xERA is 4.39. Rangel has small sample concerns (recent bullpen appearances June 27 and June 22 flagging availability/workload). Citizens Bank Park APF 108 favors offense. PIT provides 6.2 RS/game avg in Jones' recent starts. PHI 7-3 in L10 at home. Getting +100 on Over 10.5 with two elite offenses, a short-inning starter in Jones, and a hitter-friendly park is strong value.
CIN @ 
MIL✓2:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
CIN @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Chase Burns R
xERA2.67 (elite)K%34.3 (elite)HH%27.5 (elite)Barrel%2.5 (elite)ERA3.38IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs93BB%8.6
MIL vs RHP
wRC+126 (above avg)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%43.9 (above avg)
J. Misiorowski R
xERA1.56 (elite)K%40.5 (elite)HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA1.29IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs93BB%6.8
CIN vs RHP
wRC+60 (poor)K%29.2 (poor)HH%33.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN-5000-4.5 (-160)O9.5 (-169)MIL+1700+4.5 (+130)U9.5 (+135)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+148+0.5 (-113)O3.5 (-102)MIL-188-0.5 (-115)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderCINO2.5 (-120)U2.5 (-106)MILO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChase Burns7.5 (+114 / +122)17.5 (-121 / -102)J. Misiorowski9.5 (+108 / -130)18.5 (+140 / -180)
Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2@ W6.08944222
W6.08944222Jun 27@ W6.093109055
W6.093109055Jun 21@ 
W5.09675311
W5.09675311Jun 15vs W5.010074300
W5.010074300Jun 9@ 
W5.110576222
W5.110576222J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2vs L5.082105015
L5.082105015Jun 26vs W6.010782411
W6.010782411Jun 19@ 
L6.09175122
L6.09175122Jun 12vs W9.095151000
W9.095151000Jun 6@ W7.09884301
W7.09884301SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.03.004.04.02.0(1)
at MIL6.03.004.04.02.0(1)
J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN3.08.856.54.51.5(2)
home starts6.70.9011.02.71.3(3)
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 0-6 vs MIL this season (6 games).
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN have lost 4 straight.
- CIN are 4-1 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 5-0 in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 6.4 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 5.8 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 6-0 vs CIN this season (6 games).
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 4.6 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 4.07 (avg)ERA 4.752d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
MIL
xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 4.462d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
90°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- CIN — Chase Burns: 2026-06-27: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CIN — Chase Burns: recent opponents high-K: NYY 31%, PIT 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- MIL — J. Misiorowski: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
CIN @ MIL u6.5 (+105)
Elite pitching matchup with multiple under signals. Misiorowski is historically dominant: xERA 1.56 (elite), recent ERA 0.00 over last 3 starts (27.0 IP, 31K), going deep at 7.0 IP/gs. Burns has xERA 2.67 (elite) and recent ERA 2.24. CIN offense is ice cold (wRC+ 58 L12, K% 29.3% — extremely strikeout prone) vs one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. MIL wRC+ is 129 but Burns limits hard contact (HH% 27.5%, Barrel% 2.5%). Both bullpens are average (CIN xERA 3.93, MIL 4.09) — not dominant, but the starters project to go deep reducing exposure. The roof is closed removing weather variance. The +105 price on Under 6.5 is exceptional value given the pitching quality — market may be anchoring on MIL's 129 wRC+ without accounting for Burns' elite profile. Burns' flag about inflated Ks vs high-K teams actually reinforces the under: his stuff suppresses contact. Disqualifying factor check: no rain, no NO STATS, no bullpen xERA >5.0 disqualifier on either side for this total bet.
J. Misiorowski K o9.5 (+108)
Misiorowski is averaging 10.3 K/start over his last 3 (15K, 8K, 8K) with an xERA of 1.56 and K% of 40.5% — the most dominant profile in today's slate. CIN K% vs RHP is 29.3% — an extremely strikeout-prone lineup. Recent high Ks came against PHI (moderate K%), COL (low K%), HOU (moderate K%) — today's CIN lineup (29.3% K rate) is actually MORE strikeout-prone than those opponents. Adjusted expectation is comfortably at 10+. The +108 odds on Over 9.5 offers positive expected value. One flag: last start was 107 pitches suggesting a possible shorter leash today — but even in a 7-inning outing at his K rate, he projects for 9-10 Ks. The Outs line at 18.5 (-180) reflects market confidence he goes deep, supporting K accumulation.
MIA @ COL✓3:10 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
MIA @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Gusto R
xERA5.13 (below avg)K%18.6 (avg)HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%9.8 (avg)ERA4.38IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs61BB%10.2
COL vs RHP
wRC+110 (avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Michael Lorenzen R
xERA3.81 (avg)K%15.5 (below avg)HH%58.9 (poor)Barrel%5.4 (good)ERA3.94IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs86BB%2.8
MIA vs RHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%18.0 (above avg)HH%37.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-127-1.5 (+126)O14.5 (-104)COL+130+1.5 (-138)U14.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-120-0.5 (+104)O6.5 (-128)COL-104+0.5 (-135)U6.5 (-102)
Team Totals
OverUnderMIAO6.5 (+102)U6.5 (-130)COLO5.5 (-111)U5.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Gusto4.5 (+127 / +132)—Michael Lorenzen3.5 (-160 / +131)15.5 (-102 / -125)
Ryan Gusto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2@ W3.05124233
W3.05124233Jun 27@ 
W3.16343100
W3.16343100Jun 21vs 
W4.16863211
W4.16863211Jun 15@ L4.29118355
L4.29118355Jun 10vs 
W4.06643100
W4.06643100Michael Lorenzen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2vs L4.07714444
L4.07714444Jun 27@ 
W5.29217022
W5.29217022Jun 21vs L5.19057144
L5.19057144Jun 15@ L5.08955111
L5.08955111Jun 10vs W5.08472211
W5.08472211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Gusto
IPERAKHBB
vs COL3.09.002.04.02.0(1)
at COL3.09.002.04.02.0(1)
Michael Lorenzen
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA4.07.782.55.52.0(2)
home starts4.75.744.34.32.3(3)
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-1 vs COL this season (6 games).
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-1 in Ryan Gusto's last 2 away starts.
- MIA average 3.0 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 2.5 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 2 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 1-5 vs MIA this season (6 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 2-3 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-3 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 5.0 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL average 5.6 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 3.122d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
COL
xERA 5.09 (below avg)ERA 6.082d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph ESE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: HH% 59% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.09 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- COL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: last start: 63 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: 2026-06-15: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: 2026-06-21: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
MIA @ COL o12.0 (-105)
Maximum over conditions. Both starters are struggling: Gusto recent ERA 7.06 (xERA 5.13, HH% 46%, last outing only 33 pitches — extreme early hook risk), Lorenzen recent ERA 6.87 (xERA 3.81, HH% 59% — batters squaring up at an extraordinary rate). Coors Field APF 115 is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. MIA offense is elite (wRC+ 149 L12), COL wRC+ 113. COL bullpen is below average (xERA 4.76, ERA 5.85). The market already set this at 12.0 but we still like it: Gusto's 33-pitch last outing signals he could be pulled by inning 3-4, dumping this into a brutal STL bullpen (xERA 5.04... wait — MIA bullpen xERA 3.68 is solid, but COL bullpen xERA 4.76 is leaky). Multiple over factors: both starters struggling recently (≥2 signals), elite/above-avg offense on MIA side, COL bullpen average-to-poor, extreme park factor. The four over signals clearly align at Coors.
CHW @ 
CLE6:40 PM · Progressive FieldHot
CHW @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Davis Martin R
xERA3.14 (good)K%16.9 (below avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA6.14IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs84BB%10.8
CLE vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)
Slade Cecconi R
xERA3.52 (good)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA1.53IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs83BB%8.5
CHW vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+112+1.5 (-170)O9.0 (+109)CLE-130-1.5 (+158)U8.5 (-105)
Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs 
W5.18734100
W5.18734100Jun 21@ 
L6.07745311
L6.07745311Jun 16@ L3.18848399
L3.18848399Jun 10vs W6.010066000
W6.010066000Jun 2@ L4.292210366
L4.292210366Slade Cecconi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs 
W6.08743200
W6.08743200Jun 21@ 
L6.07916222
L6.07916222Jun 16@ L5.28243211
L5.28243211Jun 9vs L5.08776222
L5.08776222Jun 4@ L6.08244111
L6.08244111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Davis Martin
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.04.502.55.02.0(2)
at CLE5.03.603.05.01.0(1)
Slade Cecconi
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW4.17.684.05.51.0(2)
home starts5.02.984.75.31.3(3)
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-1 vs CLE this season (3 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-3 in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 2.8 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 5.0 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-2 vs CHW this season (3 games).
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Slade Cecconi's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Slade Cecconi's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 1.8 runs/game in Slade Cecconi's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.0 runs/game in Slade Cecconi's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.272d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 5.33 (poor)ERA 6.192d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
92°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph WNW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.33 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CHW — Davis Martin: 2026-06-16: 9 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 26) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Davis Martin is in acute struggle (recent ERA 10.15, though one blowout skews it) with mediocre strikeout ability, but Cecconi has been solid for CLE; the line is already set as a slight CLE favorite (-130 ML) reflecting this edge, and CLE's own offense is only average (wRC+ 106) while their bullpen is poor (xERA 5.33), making a full-game side bet risky — no clean edge at a fair price emerges from this matchup.
STL @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkHot
STL @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dustin May R
xERA2.94 (elite)K%27.0 (good)HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA3.18IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs82BB%4.8
ATL vs RHP
wRC+41 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)HH%36.4 (avg)
Hurston Waldrep R
xERA5.33 (poor)K%25.0 (good)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA0.00IP/gs2.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs55BB%33.3
STL vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%16.2 (above avg)HH%39.7 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-102-1.5 (+156)O9.0 (-102)ATL-115+1.5 (-184)U9.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-110-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (-135)ATL-106+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (+104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO4.5 (+104)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)ATLO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDustin May4.5 (-106 / -114)15.5 (-115 / -104)Hurston Waldrep3.5 (-111 / -108)—
Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ W2.04426166
W2.04426166Jun 15vs W9.010191100
W9.010191100Jun 9@ W6.010164100
W6.010164100Jun 2vs 
L5.29095233
L5.29095233May 27@ L7.08792012
L7.08792012Hurston Waldrep · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ W2.0*5532400
W2.0*5532400SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.13.536.03.02.5(2)
at ATL5.26.926.05.02.0(1)
Hurston Waldrep
IPERAKHBB
vs STL—
home starts5.16.514.75.03.7(3)
Trends · STL
- STL are 1-1 vs ATL this season (2 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 5.4 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
- STL average 5.2 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 1-1 vs STL this season (2 games).
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 5.17 (below avg)ERA 5.732d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
ATL
xERA 2.87 (elite)ERA 1.812d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
98°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph E
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- ATL — Hurston Waldrep: small sample (2.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- ATL — Hurston Waldrep: BB% 33% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ATL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — Dustin May: 11 days since last start (2026-06-21) — may not be fully stretched out
- STL — Dustin May: last start: 44 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- STL — Dustin May: 2026-06-21: 6 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 27) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- STL — Dustin May: low-K outing 2026-06-21 (2 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
- ATL — Hurston Waldrep: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-26 — may affect pitch count or availability
STL F5 ML -128 (-128)
Dustin May has elite xERA (2.94) and sharp recent form (1.98 ERA last 3 starts, excluding the fluky June 21 blowup which was flagged as skewing). Waldrep is an extreme unknown — only 2.0 IP total over 3 starts, xERA 5.33, BB% 33%, essentially no qualifying stats. ATL offense is brutally cold (wRC+ 32 L12). May's matchup history vs ATL is acceptable (3.53 ERA). F5 is the right vehicle: STL bullpen xERA 5.04 disqualifies full-game reliance, but May is the edge here. Note: 11 days since last start and the June 21 short outing are flags, but that start was flagged as an outlier — his two surrounding starts showed 6.0 IP/0ER and 7.0 IP/1ER.
Dustin May K o4.5 (-106)
May averages 8.0 K/start over his last 3 (6K, 9K, 9K — the June 21 low-K outing is flagged as an outlier day). His season K% is 27.0% and ATL has a 20.4% K rate vs RHP in L12 — an above-average strikeout lineup for him to exploit. The line of 4.5 is a very low bar given his recent K volume. Even adjusting for the June 21 fluky 2-K start, the adjusted expectation is comfortably above 4.5. ATL bullpen flag suggests manager may leave Waldrep in longer, reducing run impact but not K accumulation. Outs line of 16.5 is another concern but at -106, the K over 4.5 is priced reasonably and the matchup strongly supports it.
STL @ ATL F5 u4.5 (+110)
Dustin May is in excellent form (recent ERA 1.98, xERA 2.94 elite) and has historically held ATL to a 3.53 ERA. ATL's offense is frigid (wRC+ 41 vs RHP — worst in today's slate). Waldrep is essentially a mystery (2.0 IP total), but his BB% 33% and small sample are worrying — however the F5 Under is really about May dominating a cold Atlanta lineup for 5 innings. STL's offense is below average (wRC+ 91) and the F5 total of 4.5 at +110 provides value: May's dominance limiting ATL runs is the primary driver, and STL won't light up even a vulnerable Waldrep given their below-avg offense. NOTE: May's last start (6 ER in 2 IP) is flagged as an outlier and 11 days rest introduces uncertainty; we limit to F5 to capture May's dominance while avoiding STL's shaky bullpen (xERA 5.17). The +110 price on the under adds value given the uncertainty on Waldrep.
TBR @ KCR✓7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
TBR @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ian Seymour L
xERA2.49 (elite)K%23.7 (good)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA3.00IP/gs15.0 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs81BB%6.8
KCR vs LHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%38.0 (avg)
Stephen Kolek R
xERA4.86 (below avg)K%10.9 (poor)HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA6.43IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs77BB%4.7
TBR vs RHP
wRC+155 (elite)K%16.7 (above avg)HH%41.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-124-1.5 (+126)O10.0 (-110)KCR+110+1.5 (-149)U10.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-122-0.5 (+108)O5.5 (-108)KCR-102+0.5 (-140)U5.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO5.5 (+108)U5.5 (-130)O2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-105)KCRO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (-106)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UIan Seymour4.5 (+110 / -116)15.5 (+132 / -175)Stephen Kolek3.5 (+136 / -157)15.5 (+100 / -125)
Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25vs W6.2*9070100
W6.2*9070100Jun 20vs L5.08147033
L5.08147033Jun 14@ 
W3.1*7232322
W3.1*7232322Jun 8vs 
W4.05551111
W4.05551111Jun 2vs L2.0*4012333
L2.0*4012333Stephen Kolek · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21vs L1.24909199
L1.24909199Jun 14vs W7.19745100
W7.19745100Jun 9vs W5.08638112
W5.08638112Jun 3@ W7.09686222
W7.09686222May 29@ L5.09156146
L5.09156146SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Stephen Kolek
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR—
home starts4.46.772.37.31.0(3)
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 4-2 vs KCR this season (6 games).
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR have won 7 straight.
- TBR are 2-1 in Ian Seymour's last 3 starts.
- TBR average 4.3 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 3 starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-4 vs TBR this season (6 games).
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 3-2 in Stephen Kolek's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 4-1 in Stephen Kolek's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 5.0 runs/game in Stephen Kolek's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 5.8 runs/game in Stephen Kolek's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 2.442d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 5.01 (below avg)ERA 8.432d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Weather · Hot
95°F, Clear, Wind 14 mph SSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.01 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Ian Seymour: 12 days since last start (2026-06-20) — may not be fully stretched out
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-25, 2026-06-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: MIA 27%, WSN 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- KCR — Stephen Kolek: 11 days since last start (2026-06-21) — may not be fully stretched out
- KCR — Stephen Kolek: last start: 49 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- KCR — Stephen Kolek: 2026-06-21: 9 ER in 1.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TBR ML (-124)
TBR offense is elite (wRC+ 155 vs RHP — best on today's slate) facing Kolek, who despite recent improvement still has a poor xERA 4.86 and no home/TBR history to draw confidence from. TBR bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.24). Seymour's IP concern (short recent outings, 12 days rest) is real, but TBR's bullpen is among the best today and will absorb early exits. KCR bullpen is disastrous (xERA 5.01, ERA 8.43 in L12). The issue: -124 is near the pricing limit. Flagging line_warning as the price is borderline. The TBR team total Over 5.5 at -104 may be the cleaner expression of this edge — TBR's hot offense vs a vulnerable Kolek + terrible KCR pen.
TBR Team Total o5.5 (-104)
TBR offense is the hottest on today's slate (wRC+ 155 vs RHP) facing Kolek (xERA 4.86, ERA 6.43, 0-for-TBR in history). KCR bullpen is catastrophic (xERA 5.01, ERA 8.43 in L12). Even if Seymour exits early, TBR's elite offense will keep producing against KCR's weak staff. At -104, this is a near-even price for a team with a 155 wRC+ facing one of today's most vulnerable pitching matchups. The team total over is the cleanest expression of this offensive edge, removing dependency on TBR's pitching performance.
DET @ TEX✓8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
DET @ TEX✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Framber Valdez L
xERA2.72 (elite)K%20.8 (avg)HH%41.1 (below avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)ERA2.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs91BB%6.5
TEX vs LHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%26.6 (poor)
Nathan Eovaldi R
xERA1.88 (elite)K%31.2 (elite)HH%22.0 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)ERA2.70IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs93BB%3.9
DET vs RHP
wRC+120 (above avg)K%23.5 (avg)HH%40.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-106-1.5 (+160)O7.5 (+102)TEX-110+1.5 (-180)U7.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-104+0.5 (-156)O3.5 (-130)TEX-120-0.5 (+120)U3.5 (+100)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO3.5 (-118)U3.5 (-108)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)TEXO3.5 (-106)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFramber Valdez5.5 (+126 / -146)18.5 (+132 / +128)Nathan Eovaldi6.5 (-111 / -106)18.5 (+116 / -144)
Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs L6.08829044
L6.08829044Jun 22vs W6.09484211
W6.09484211Jun 16@ L6.09266301
L6.09266301Jun 10vs L5.07526244
L5.07526244Jun 5vs W5.010255211
W5.010255211Nathan Eovaldi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ 
W7.09295100
W7.09295100Jun 21vs W6.09497133
W6.09497133Jun 14@ W7.09466133
W7.09466133Jun 9@ L5.28834344
L5.28834344Jun 2@ W6.093711144
W6.093711144SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.72.707.75.00.7(3)
at TEX7.03.866.55.51.0(2)
Nathan Eovaldi
IPERAKHBB
vs DET7.00.007.02.01.0(1)
home starts6.73.607.35.01.3(3)
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-1 vs TEX this season (3 games).
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-4 in Framber Valdez's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 4.8 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET average 2.6 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 1-2 vs DET this season (3 games).
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 4-1 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 5.0 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 2.4 runs/game in Nathan Eovaldi's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 2.13 (elite)ERA 3.792d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 6.002d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- DET — Framber Valdez: low-K outing 2026-06-27 (2 Ks vs avg 5.3) — stuff was flat that day
- DET — Framber Valdez: recent opponents low-K: HOU 18%, HOU 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
DET @ TEX o7.5 (+102)
Eovaldi has been struggling significantly: recent ERA 5.44 vs xERA 1.88 — he is dramatically underperforming his expected numbers right now (recent ERA >> xERA), meaning he's been genuinely bad lately, not just unlucky. Detroit's offense is hot at wRC+ 120 in L12. TEX's bullpen has ERA 6.00 in L12 despite xERA 3.58, adding further late-game run risk. Framber Valdez is solid (xERA 2.72, recent ERA 2.81) but TEX hits LHP at wRC+ 119. Globe Life Field roof is closed (neutral weather). The key driver is Eovaldi's recent struggles against a strong DET offense — the 7.5 total feels low given Eovaldi's current form. Both offenses are above-average vs RHP/LHP respectively. Getting +102 on the over is slight value given multiple run-scoring factors.
LAA @ SEA✓9:40 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
LAA @ SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Walbert Urena R
xERA2.90 (elite)K%19.7 (avg)HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA5.51IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs83BB%5.6
SEA vs RHP
wRC+80 (below avg)K%27.0 (below avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Bryce Miller R
xERA2.79 (elite)K%39.1 (elite)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA2.89IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs82BB%0.0
LAA vs RHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%24.8 (below avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+180+1.5 (-125)O7.5 (+100)SEA-210-1.5 (+112)U7.0 (+103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+164+0.5 (+104)O4.5 (+116)SEA-210-0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 ULAAO2.5 (-135)U2.5 (+112)O1.5 (+114)U1.5 (-145)SEAO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalbert Urena4.5 (-138 / +114)16.5 (-108 / -107)Bryce Miller6.5 (-125 / +120)17.5 (-154 / +121)
Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26vs L4.17156277
L4.17156277Jun 20@ W5.09064000
W5.09064000Jun 15@ L7.08837234
L7.08837234Jun 9vs W5.010773500
W5.010773500Jun 3vs W6.09973333
W6.09973333Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 25@ L5.290115033
L5.290115033Jun 19vs L5.06673011
L5.06673011Jun 12@ W8.09174022
W8.09174022Jun 6@ W6.09491200
W6.09491200May 31vs W5.07161100
W5.07161100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryce Miller
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.15.336.35.02.0(3)
home starts5.10.596.71.70.7(3)
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 2-3 vs SEA this season (5 games).
- LAA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 3-2 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-4 in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 6.8 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 3.6 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 3-2 vs LAA this season (5 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 3-2 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-2 in Bryce Miller's last 3 home starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 2.0 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 3.862d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 5.122d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
63°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph SSW
APF 90 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 7
- SEA — Bryce Miller: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAA — Walbert Urena: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- LAA — Walbert Urena: 2026-06-26: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAA — Walbert Urena: recent opponents high-K: ATH 28%, ATH 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- SEA — Bryce Miller: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SEA — Bryce Miller: recent opponents high-K: WSN 25%, PIT 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 90) — park suppresses offense, favor the under
LAA @ SEA u7.5 (-114)
Bryce Miller is elite and piping hot: xERA 2.79, recent ERA 0.95 over last 3 starts, K% 39.1%. Urena has elite xERA 2.90 and recent ERA 3.00 (excluding the skewing June 26 blowup flagged as outlier — his other two starts were 7.0IP/3ER and 5.0IP/0ER). SEA offense is cold (wRC+ 80 L12). LAA wRC+ 105 is average. T-Mobile Park APF 91 is a strong pitcher's park. SEA bullpen xERA 3.00 is excellent. Under signals: Miller hot (recent ERA <1.00), Urena xERA elite (2.90), SEA offense cold (wRC+ 80), pitcher-friendly park. The -114 price is reasonable. Caution: Miller's Barrel% 13% is elevated and his matchup vs LAA historically shows 5.33 ERA in 3 starts — but that's a 2-year lookback against a different lineup composition. Current form dominates.
SEA Team Total u4.5 (-140)
Bryce Miller is absolutely locked in: recent ERA 0.95 across 3 starts, xERA 2.79 (elite), averaging 7.3 K/start. SEA's own offense is cold at wRC+ 80 in L12 — below average. T-Mobile Park has an APF of 90 — strongly pitcher-friendly. Miller has allowed just 0.59 ERA at home in 3 starts. SEA has averaged only 2.0 RS in their last 3 home starts. Walbert Urena (xERA 2.90) will keep this game close. However, at -140 this is pricing in a lot already.
SDP @ LAD✓10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumNeutral Conditions
SDP @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Randy Vasquez R
xERA7.80 (poor)K%11.3 (poor)HH%46.9 (poor)Barrel%14.3 (below avg)ERA10.03IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs11.0PC/gs84BB%9.7
LAD vs RHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%21.3 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Roki Sasaki R
xERA5.26 (poor)K%18.8 (avg)HH%45.2 (poor)Barrel%14.3 (below avg)ERA8.36IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs87BB%14.1
SDP vs RHP
wRC+129 (above avg)K%22.0 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+194+1.5 (-105)O8.0 (-108)LAD-225-1.5 (-105)U8.0 (-110)
Randy Vasquez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 27vs L3.1*7918147
L3.1*7918147Jun 19@ L3.17218367
L3.17218367Jun 13@ 
W5.010056222
W5.010056222Jun 7vs L4.07538244
L4.07538244Jun 2@ L5.08035122
L5.08035122Roki Sasaki · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26@ L4.08123533
L4.08123533Jun 19vs W5.29064133
W5.29064133Jun 12@ L4.19147377
L4.19147377Jun 5vs W7.098102200
W7.098102200May 30vs L5.18473111
L5.18473111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Randy Vasquez
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.16.590.06.03.0(1)
at LAD5.05.402.04.00.0(1)
Roki Sasaki
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP4.06.752.03.05.0(1)
home starts5.82.087.73.01.3(3)
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 2-4 vs LAD this season (6 games).
- SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have lost 5 straight.
- SDP are 1-4 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-3 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 4.8 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 4.4 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 4-2 vs SDP this season (6 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 2-3 in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-2 in Roki Sasaki's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 2.6 runs/game in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 5.0 runs/game in Roki Sasaki's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 6.242d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 4.312d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
68°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph W
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAD — Roki Sasaki: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- LAD — Roki Sasaki: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAD — Roki Sasaki: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- LAD bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: 13 days since last start (2026-06-19) — may not be fully stretched out
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: last start: 72 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
SDP @ LAD o9.0 (+100)
Both starters are poor: Vasquez xERA 7.80 (worst on the slate), ERA 10.03, HH% 47%, Barrel% 14%. Sasaki xERA 5.26, ERA 8.36, HH% 45%, Barrel% 14%, BB% 14%. Both offenses are elite: LAD wRC+ 144, SDP wRC+ 130. Vasquez has 6.59 ERA in 1 prior start vs LAD. Sasaki has 6.75 ERA vs SDP. The +100 price on Over 9.0 is exceptional value — getting even money on a game with two of the worst starters on the slate and two elite offenses. LAD bullpen is solid (xERA 3.12) but the starter exposure in the first 5-6 innings is severe. SDP bullpen xERA 3.76 is average. The market may be undervaluing this due to Sasaki's one dominant 7-inning shutout recently — but his season numbers (8.36 ERA, 5.26 xERA) tell the true story.