MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 17 Bets · Sep 23

1u Picks

Logan Henderson o5.5 Ks (+100)

MIL @ PHI · 6:41 PM ET

Henderson has struck out 7, 6 and 8 batters in his last 3 starts, clearing 5.5 in every outing, backed by a 33.3% strikeout rate and 30.2% K-BB% that are both elite marks. Philadelphia's strikeout rate vs RHP is a modest 19.4% over its last 6, but Henderson's swing-and-miss dominance has been enough to overwhelm even average-contact lineups this stretch. A near coin-flip price on a pitcher who has cleared this number in three straight starts is mispriced.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Aaron Nola o5.5 Ks (+102)

MIL @ PHI · 6:41 PM ET

Milwaukee strikes out at an extreme 34.4% clip vs RHP over its last 6 games, among the highest marks on the board, and Nola's 21.5% whiff rate over his last 3 starts running well above his 15.8% strikeout rate suggests his K numbers are due to climb toward that whiff level. His recent K totals of 5, 3 and 4 look modest, but they came before facing a lineup this strikeout-prone. The market has the over at only 47% no-vig despite the sharpest opponent strikeout matchup either pitcher sees this week.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Sonny Gray o17.5 Outs (-135)

CLE @ BOS · 7:11 PM ET

Gray has thrown 7.0, 6.0 and 6.1 innings in his last 3 starts (21, 18 and 18.3 outs), and his 4.16 xERA and 10.5% walk rate over that stretch are steady, not alarming. Cleveland's offense has an 8.0% walk rate vs RHP over its last 6, not the kind of patient approach that runs up pitch counts, and he has dominated this Cleveland club historically (0.60 ERA, 7.5 IP/gs across two starts). His own recent average sits above the posted 17.5 line, which the -135 price does not fully reflect.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Foster Griffin u14.5 Outs (+152)

CLE @ BOS · 7:11 PM ET

Griffin's last 3 starts have gone 6.0, 2.1 and 4.0 innings — 18, 7 and 12 outs, an average well below the posted 14.5 line — with a 9.49 ERA and a 2.1 IP, 8 ER meltdown in his most recent outing. Cleveland's bullpen is already marked elevated after 4.0 IP of relief work in the last day, which points toward a quick hook rather than a long leash if trouble starts again. The market has the over favored at 62%, but his actual recent outing lengths argue the opposite direction.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Chris Sale Outs o15.5 (-110)

CIN @ ATL · 7:16 PM ET

Sale has thrown 9.0, 6.0 and 7.0 innings in his last 3 starts (27, 18 and 21 outs), clearing 15.5 outs by a wide margin every time, with a 3.5% BB% over that stretch showing he isn't creating his own long at-bats. CIN's offense is one of the worst platoon matchups on the board at a 25 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 games, giving Atlanta little incentive to pull him early even on 12 days rest. The market has the under favored at 51% despite three straight starts that all cleared this number comfortably.

Found at 7:01 AM ET

Andrew Abbott Outs u14.5 (+130)

CIN @ ATL · 7:16 PM ET

Abbott has gone 4.0, 2.0 and 4.2 innings in his last 3 starts — 12, 6 and 12.6 outs, all well shy of this 14.5 line — while walking batters at a 9.6% clip and allowing a 43.2% hard-hit rate over that stretch, both signs of a short leash rather than one bad game skewing the sample. The market has the over favored at 58% even though none of his last three outings has come close to reaching 14.5 outs. Even if Atlanta's mild platoon numbers against lefties let him work a bit deeper today, the gap between his actual recent depth and this line is too wide to ignore.

Found at 7:01 AM ET

CHC Team Total o3.5 (-111)

MIA @ CHC · 7:41 PM ET

Chicago carries a 124 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games and just lit up Ryan Gusto for 5 ER in 4.2 IP eighteen days ago, the only meeting between these two this season. Gusto's last 3 starts show a 6.38 xERA and a 42.3% hard-hit rate allowed, and the Cubs are averaging 8.4 runs per game at home over their last 5. A 50/50 no-vig line on a team total of 3.5 undersells a lineup this hot against a pitcher this hittable, and this specific recent meeting.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Kevin Gausman o5.5 Ks (-138)

MIA @ CHC · 7:41 PM ET

Gausman has struck out 9, 6 and 6 batters in his last 3 starts (7.0 K/gs average) with a 29.2% K rate and 29.4% whiff rate, both elite marks. Miami's lineup carries a 25.0% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6, above average and a good match for his bat-missing stuff. All three of his recent outings have cleared this number comfortably, and the current price still leaves value on a floor this consistent.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Seth Lugo u15.5 Outs (-155)

CHW @ KCR · 7:41 PM ET

Lugo has thrown exactly 5.0 innings — 15 outs — in each of his last 3 starts, a rare level of consistency sitting right at the edge of this 15.5 line. His 7.1% walk rate is fine, but the club has capped him at five innings three times running regardless of results, and his most recent start needed only 76 pitches to get there before he was lifted anyway. The market has the under favored at only 59% despite a perfect 3-for-3 track record at exactly this workload.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Walbert Urena Outs o17.5 (-119)

LAA @ ATH · 9:41 PM ET

Urena has averaged 7.0 IP/gs over his last 3 starts (8.0, 6.0 and 7.0 innings, or 24, 18 and 21 outs), clearing this line in every outing. ATH's offense is cold against RHP at just a 74 wRC+ over its last 6 games (86 over its last 12), giving him no reason for an early hook, and ATH's bullpen is stressed at 7.0 IP over the last day, which argues for the manager to lean on him longer. The market has the under narrowly favored at 51% despite a starter who has not failed to clear this number in any of his last three starts.

Found at 7:01 AM ET

LAA -1.5 (+120)

LAA @ ATH · 9:41 PM ET

Walbert Urena has a 2.14 ERA and 2.47 xERA over his last 3 starts, averaging 6.7 K/start, while Jeffrey Springs owns a 4.70 ERA over his last 3 including a 3.1 IP, 6 ER disaster in his most recent outing. Springs has been hammered by LAA specifically, allowing 11 ER combined in two meetings this season and last, and Oakland's bullpen is stressed at 7.0 IP over the last day, leaving little margin if the game gets away from Springs early. The market prices LAA -1.5 at only 44% implied when the pitching gap alone points toward a multi-run LAA win.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

LAD -1.5 (+100)

SDP @ LAD · 10:11 PM ET

Yamamoto carries a 2.08 xERA over his last 3 starts and has dominated San Diego specifically this season, holding them to 1, 2 and 0 earned runs across three meetings. Robbie Ray's last 3 starts show an 8.78 ERA, a 5.43 xERA and a 15.9% walk rate, and the Dodgers' offense has a 186 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 games. A heavy favorite with this large a talent and form gap winning by two or more runs is priced at only 48% no-vig, which undervalues both the pitching gap and Los Angeles' current form against left-handers.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Yoshinobu Yamamoto o18.5 Outs (+124)

SDP @ LAD · 10:11 PM ET

Yamamoto has thrown exactly 7.0 innings (21 outs) in each of his last 3 starts with a 6.7% walk rate, showing efficient, deep outings every time out. San Diego's offense strikes out at only a 20.9% clip vs RHP over its last 6, doing little to speed up his exits, and he has averaged 6.7 IP/gs in three meetings against this same Padres club this season. A line at 18.5 sits below his actual recent floor, and the plus-money price does not reflect how automatic his last three outings have been.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Robbie Ray u3.5 Ks (+114)

SDP @ LAD · 10:11 PM ET

The Dodgers strike out at just 16.8% vs LHP over their last 6 games, one of the lowest contact-averse marks on the board, which works against any pitcher's strikeout total regardless of his own stuff. Ray has struck out 1, 5 and 6 in his last 3 starts and is dealing with a 15.9% walk rate that signals control trouble rather than swing-and-miss dominance. The market still favors the over at 55% no-vig despite facing the league's most contact-oriented lineup he has seen recently.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

Games In Progress / Completed

BAL -1.5 (+180)

TOR @ BAL · 1:36 PM ET · Game 1 of 2

BAL's offense is running hot against RHP at a 152 wRC+ over its last 6 games while TOR's is ice cold against RHP at just a 67 wRC+ over the same window, and that gap is corroborated by BAL's 116 wRC+ over the last 12 vs a similarly depressed 116 for TOR that has clearly faded recently. Scherzer's last 3 starts have produced a 5.92 ERA with only 2.7 K/start, and BAL's bullpen is fresh (2.3 IP over 2 days) behind a Bassitt outing that has gone 5.7 IP/gs. The no-vig market prices BAL covering -1.5 at only 35%, well under what this scoring mismatch and bullpen edge support.

Found at 7:01 AM ET

Max Scherzer Ks u4.5 (-133)

TOR @ BAL · 1:36 PM ET · Game 1 of 2

Scherzer has struck out only 2, 3 and 3 batters in his last 3 starts, averaging 2.7 K/start, well below this 4.5 line. BAL's 29.6% K% over its last 6 vs RHP runs far above its 23.4% Whiff% over the same window, a gap that argues the strikeout rate is inflated and due to come back down rather than climb further. The market already leans under at 56%, but the consistency of his last three outings supports going further than that price reflects.

Found at 7:01 AM ET

BAL Team Total o3.5 (-135)

TOR @ BAL · 1:36 PM ET · Game 1 of 3

Baltimore's offense carries a 152 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 games, and it faces CJ Van Eyk, whose last 3 starts have produced a 5.29 xERA, a 0.0% strikeout rate and a 44.0% hard-hit rate allowed. Van Eyk has thrown only 4.2 innings per start with essentially no swing-and-miss stuff, giving an elite recent Baltimore lineup extended looks. A team-total-over-3.5 line at 55% no-vig undersells the size of this mismatch given how thoroughly Van Eyk has been hit and how hot Baltimore's bats currently are.

Found at 2:06 PM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

WSN @

DET

1:10 PM · Comerica ParkWindy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Brad Lord RBP

xERA2.43 (elite)ERA8.10 (poor)K%28.6 (elite)Whiff%13.0 (below)BB%7.1 (avg)

More Stats

HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs3.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs19

DET all hands

wRC+137 (elite)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (avg)BB%11.7 (elite)HH%44.3 (above)

L12

wRC+142 (elite)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%20.4 (above)BB%12.9 (elite)HH%41.9 (above)

Framber Valdez L

xERA2.73 (elite)ERA1.50 (elite)K%18.1 (avg)Whiff%22.9 (avg)BB%9.7 (avg)

More Stats

HH%25.5 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs79

WSN vs LHP

wRC+87 (below)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)BB%8.7 (avg)HH%34.7 (below)

L12

wRC+95 (avg)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%23.2 (avg)BB%8.1 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

WSN

xERA 4.74 (below)ERA 5.07 (below)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)

DET

xERA 2.92 (elite)ERA 2.76 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalWSN+176+1.5 (-192)O4.5 (-119)DET-165-1.5 (+165)U4.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalWSN+146+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-106)DET-184-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-122)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (+106/-125)1.5 (-115/-115)DET4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (-110/-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UBrad Lord——Framber Valdez5.5 (+115 / -127)17.5 (-129 / +100)

Brad Lord · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26@

L1.2*2221000

Sep 18 '26@

W2.0*2831000

Sep 15 '26vs

W0.1*600000

Sep 12 '26vs

W1.0*2112133

Sep 9 '26@

L2.0*3204022

Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26vs

L4.05651100

Sep 17 '26@

L5.09083433

Sep 11 '26vs

W6.09026201

Sep 5 '26@

W7.09433100

Aug 30 '26vs

L6.010556133

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Framber Valdez

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN5.00.90elite8.52.01.5(2)

1 this season, 1 last season · last met today

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26vs

L4.05651100

Jul 28 '25vs

L6.097123211

home starts5.31.69elite4.04.31.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26vs

L4.05651100

Sep 11 '26vs

W6.09026201

Aug 30 '26vs

L6.010556133

Trends · WSN

WSN are 1-1 vs DET this season (2 games).
WSN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
WSN are 2-3 in Brad Lord's last 5 starts.
WSN are 1-2 in Brad Lord's last 3 away starts.
WSN average 4.6 runs/game in Brad Lord's last 5 starts.
WSN average 5.3 runs/game in Brad Lord's last 3 away starts.

Over / Under

WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · DET

DET are 1-1 vs WSN this season (2 games).
DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
DET are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
DET are 1-4 in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
DET average 3.0 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
DET average 3.2 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
DET are 0-5 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
DET are 0-3 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Windy

63°F, Overcast, Wind 17 mph E

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 10

BULLPEN GAME: WSN have no conventional starter — Richard Lovelady (LHP) is listed first (last 5 outings avg 0.6 IP (longest 1.0)). Expect a parade of relievers; DET's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
WSN — Brad Lord: small sample: 3.1 IP over 3 starts
WSN — Brad Lord: K% 28.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what Whiff% 13.0 supports
WSN bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
DET bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
WSN — Brad Lord: 21 days since last start (2026-09-02) news ↗
WSN — Brad Lord: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-18, 2026-09-15
WSN — Brad Lord: last start: 55 pitches over 3.1 IP news ↗
WSN — Brad Lord: 2026-08-15: 2 ER in 0.2 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
WEATHER: wind Cross Wind L 17 mph from the E

AI Analysis

This is a bullpen game for Washington, so no starter prop or F5 read applies on that side, and Framber Valdez's K and outs numbers already sit close to his recent 4.3 K/start and 6.0 IP/gs averages against a DET offense that's hitting well overall. The side and total already reflect Detroit's clear edge with Valdez on the mound against a patchwork Washington staff.

TOR @

BAL

1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Max Scherzer R

xERA4.23 (avg)ERA5.74 (poor)K%11.9 (poor)Whiff%21.1 (avg)BB%7.5 (avg)

More Stats

HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%9.4 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs59

BAL vs RHP

wRC+152 (elite)K%29.6 (poor)Whiff%23.4 (avg)BB%5.6 (poor)HH%39.2 (avg)

L12

wRC+116 (above)K%28.6 (poor)Whiff%24.9 (avg)BB%7.1 (below)HH%35.9 (avg)

Chris Bassitt R

xERA3.60 (good)ERA3.12 (good)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (good)BB%10.5 (below)

More Stats

HH%43.1 (below)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs74

TOR vs RHP

wRC+67 (poor)K%15.4 (elite)Whiff%17.6 (elite)BB%9.3 (avg)HH%29.2 (poor)

L12

wRC+116 (above)K%17.7 (above)Whiff%18.3 (above)BB%10.4 (above)HH%33.8 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

TOR

xERA 4.69 (below)ERA 3.38 (good)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)

BAL

xERA 3.20 (good)ERA 2.17 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/2g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTOR-108-1.5 (+186)O6.5 (+102)BAL-118-1.5 (+200)U5.5 (-111)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTOR+102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-104)BAL-125-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-125)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-105/-113)1.5 (-140/+110)BAL3.5 (-120/+100)2.5 (+130/-166)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMax Scherzer4.5 (+126 / -133)14.5 (-117 / -112)Chris Bassitt3.5 (-130 / +124)15.5 (-110 / -122)

Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26@

L1.02030100

Sep 16 '26vs

W5.07333311

Sep 11 '26vs

L5.08337166

Sep 5 '26@

W5.27625133

Aug 30 '26vs

W7.097101100

Chris Bassitt · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26vs

L1.13112000

Sep 16 '26@

W6.29565111

Sep 11 '26@

W5.09556322

Sep 5 '26vs

L5.29165433

Aug 30 '26@

W5.29948355

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Max Scherzer

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL3.76.55poor3.73.71.3(3)

at BAL1.00.00elite3.00.01.0(1)

2 this season, 1 last season · last met today

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26@

L1.02030100

Sep 11 '26vs

L5.08337166

Sep 13 '25vs

W5.09154222

Chris Bassitt

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR4.02.23elite2.74.01.3(3)

all 3 this season · last met today

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26vs

L1.13112000

Sep 11 '26@

W5.09556322

May 28 '26vs

L6.08024111

home starts3.84.70below4.35.01.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 23 '26vs

L1.13112000

Sep 5 '26vs

L5.29165433

Aug 19 '26vs

L5.29568133

Trends · TOR

TOR are 6-6 vs BAL this season (12 games).
TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
TOR are 3-2 in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
TOR are 3-2 in Max Scherzer's last 5 away starts.
TOR average 4.0 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
TOR average 4.0 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
TOR are 0-5 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
TOR are 1-1 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 2 away starts.

Trends · BAL

BAL are 6-6 vs TOR this season (12 games).
BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
BAL are 3-2 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
BAL are 1-4 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 home starts.
BAL average 4.4 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
BAL average 2.8 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
BAL are 1-4 to the over in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
BAL are 0-2 to the over in Chris Bassitt's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

61°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph NE

APF 102 — Neutral

Flags · 8

TOR — Max Scherzer: Whiff% 21.1 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.9 shows
BAL offense: K% 29.6 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 23.4 supports
BAL bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 2g)
TOR — Max Scherzer: last start: 73 pitches over 5.0 IP news ↗
TOR — Max Scherzer: 2026-09-11: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.50 ERA equivalent
TREND: TOR — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-09-22)
TREND: BAL — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-09-22)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)

AI Analysis

No AI read for this game in the latest analysis.

MIN @

SFG

3:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Connor Prielipp L

xERA2.88 (elite)ERA2.76 (elite)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%19.2 (avg)BB%3.2 (elite)

More Stats

HH%41.3 (below)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs8.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs79

SFG vs LHP

wRC+107 (avg)K%18.1 (above)Whiff%20.5 (above)BB%8.4 (avg)HH%31.8 (below)

L12

wRC+81 (below)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%25.2 (below)BB%9.5 (above)HH%31.6 (below)

Cesar Perdomo L

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

MIN vs LHP

wRC+101 (avg)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%21.7 (avg)BB%7.3 (below)HH%33.3 (below)

L12

wRC+71 (poor)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%23.0 (avg)BB%6.2 (poor)HH%32.0 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

MIN

xERA 4.55 (below)ERA 5.04 (below)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)

SFG

xERA 4.07 (avg)ERA 3.00 (good)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIN-154-1.5 (+114)O8.0 (-105)SFG+135+1.5 (-130)U7.5 (+104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIN-150-0.5 (-104)O4.5 (+104)SFG+120+0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-135)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (+124/-160)SFG3.5 (+102/-130)1.5 (-120/-110)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UConnor Prielipp5.5 (+112 / -140)14.5 (-172 / +140)Cesar Perdomo3.5 (-102 / -115)15.5 (+120 / -170)

Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 18 '26@

W7.09282200

Sep 12 '26vs

W5.17715033

Sep 7 '26@

L4.0*6855022

Sep 1 '26vs

W5.0*7353100

Aug 26 '26@

L5.17856133

Cesar Perdomo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 18 '26@

L4.28316322

Sep 12 '26vs

L4.274310255

Sep 6 '26@

L6.08343100

Sep 1 '26@

L4.0*5843111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Cesar Perdomo

IPERAKHBB

vs MIN—

home starts4.210.71poor3.010.02.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 12 '26vs

L4.274310255

Trends · MIN

MIN are 1-1 vs SFG this season (2 games).
MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 2-3 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
MIN are 1-4 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 away starts.
MIN average 2.8 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
MIN average 3.0 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 3-2 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
MIN are 2-1 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 3 away starts.

Trends · SFG

SFG are 1-1 vs MIN this season (2 games).
SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
SFG are 0-3 in Cesar Perdomo's last 3 starts.
SFG are 0-1 in Cesar Perdomo's last 1 home starts.
SFG average 3.3 runs/game in Cesar Perdomo's last 3 starts.
SFG average 6.0 runs/game in Cesar Perdomo's last 1 home starts.

Over / Under

SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

68°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph NNE

APF 98 — Neutral

Flags · 6

SFG — Cesar Perdomo: first start of the season — no stats available yet
SFG bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
MIN — Connor Prielipp: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-07, 2026-09-01
SFG — Cesar Perdomo: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01
SFG — Cesar Perdomo: 2026-09-12: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.14 ERA equivalent
SFG — Cesar Perdomo: recent opponents low-K: NYM 13%, LAD 17%

AI Analysis

Cesar Perdomo is making his first start of the season with no stats, which rules out any side, total, or prop read built around him, and Prielipp's props are already fairly priced against a middling SFG offense.

TOR @

BAL

6:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

CJ Van Eyk R

xERA5.29 (poor)ERA5.79 (poor)K%0.0 (poor)Whiff%10.2 (poor)BB%7.4 (avg)

More Stats

HH%44.0 (below)Barrel%4.0 (elite)IP/gs4.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs35

BAL vs RHP

wRC+152 (elite)K%29.6 (poor)Whiff%23.4 (avg)BB%5.6 (poor)HH%39.2 (avg)

L12

wRC+116 (above)K%28.6 (poor)Whiff%24.9 (avg)BB%7.1 (below)HH%35.9 (avg)

Trey Gibson R

xERA6.11 (poor)ERA10.03 (poor)K%27.7 (good)Whiff%30.6 (elite)BB%18.5 (poor)

More Stats

HH%60.0 (poor)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs80

TOR vs RHP

wRC+67 (poor)K%15.4 (elite)Whiff%17.6 (elite)BB%9.3 (avg)HH%29.2 (poor)

L12

wRC+116 (above)K%17.7 (above)Whiff%18.3 (above)BB%10.4 (above)HH%33.8 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

TOR

xERA 4.69 (below)ERA 3.38 (good)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)

BAL

xERA 3.20 (good)ERA 2.17 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/2g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTOR+102-1.5 (+168)O8.0 (-105)BAL-120+1.5 (-204)U7.5 (+110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTOR+106+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-113)BAL-132-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-115)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-135/+105)BAL3.5 (-135/+112)2.5 (+114/-145)

CJ Van Eyk · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 28 '26vs

W1.0*1300100

Jul 28 '26@

L3.1*6906112

Jul 24 '26@

L0.1*2204022

Jul 17 '26vs

L2.0*3711000

Trey Gibson · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30 '26vs

L2.27857688

Jun 24 '26@

L4.06653222

Jun 19 '26@

L5.09787433

Jun 13 '26vs

L4.19373566

Jun 8 '26vs

L4.26805133

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Trey Gibson

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR—

home starts3.514.57poor4.05.04.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 30 '26vs

L2.27857688

Jun 13 '26vs

L4.19373566

Jun 8 '26vs

L4.26805133

Trends · TOR

TOR are 6-6 vs BAL this season (12 games).
TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.

Over / Under

TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · BAL

BAL are 6-6 vs TOR this season (12 games).
BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
BAL are 0-5 in Trey Gibson's last 5 starts.
BAL are 1-3 in Trey Gibson's last 4 home starts.
BAL average 4.0 runs/game in Trey Gibson's last 5 starts.
BAL average 5.0 runs/game in Trey Gibson's last 4 home starts.

Over / Under

BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather

59°F, Wind 9 mph NE

Flags · 12

TOR — CJ Van Eyk: small sample: 4.2 IP over 3 starts
BAL — Trey Gibson: avg 3.9 IP/gs over his last 3
BAL offense: K% 29.6 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 23.4 supports
BAL bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 2g)
TOR — CJ Van Eyk: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-28, 2026-07-28
BAL — Trey Gibson: 85 days since last start (2026-06-30) news ↗
BAL — Trey Gibson: last start: 78 pitches over 2.2 IP news ↗
BAL — Trey Gibson: recent opponents high-K: LAA 27%, CHW 31%
WEATHER: wind blowing IN 9 mph from the NE
TREND: TOR — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-09-22)
TREND: BAL — was shut out 0-0 last time out (2026-09-22)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)

AI Analysis

Beyond Baltimore's team total, the side markets here are muddled — both CJ Van Eyk and Trey Gibson have been hit hard recently, and Toronto's cold 67 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 offsets what would otherwise be an appealing over angle on the full game total. Neither pitcher has a posted strikeout or outs prop on this card, so there is nothing to evaluate in that market for either starter.

MIL @

PHI✓

6:40 PM · Citizens Bank ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Logan Henderson R

xERA2.63 (elite)ERA2.65 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)Whiff%27.2 (good)BB%3.2 (elite)

More Stats

HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs95

PHI vs RHP

wRC+86 (below)K%19.4 (above)Whiff%20.0 (above)BB%18.7 (elite)HH%32.6 (below)

L12

wRC+90 (below)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)BB%13.3 (elite)HH%31.3 (below)

Aaron Nola R

xERA3.72 (good)ERA1.33 (elite)K%15.8 (below)Whiff%21.5 (avg)BB%9.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs92

MIL vs RHP

wRC+76 (poor)K%34.4 (poor)Whiff%30.8 (poor)BB%10.4 (above)HH%35.3 (avg)

L12

wRC+125 (above)K%28.8 (poor)Whiff%27.6 (below)BB%10.3 (above)HH%35.9 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

MIL

xERA 3.72 (good)ERA 3.70 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)

PHI

xERA 4.92 (below)ERA 6.06 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIL-126-1.5 (+140)O7.5 (+112)PHI+110+1.5 (-167)U7.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIL-140-0.5 (+104)O3.5 (-140)PHI+112+0.5 (-135)U3.5 (+108)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL3.5 (-115/-105)1.5 (-135/+105)PHI3.5 (+116/-145)1.5 (-105/-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/ULogan Henderson5.5 (+100 / -125)14.5 (-171 / +128)Aaron Nola5.5 (+102 / -124)15.5 (-108 / -116)

Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26@

W5.08786133

Sep 9 '26vs

W5.09562101

Sep 3 '26@

L7.010273022

Aug 28 '26vs

W7.09171011

Aug 22 '26vs

W6.010045211

Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26@

W7.08143300

Sep 11 '26@

L6.110136322

Sep 6 '26vs

L7.09354111

Aug 31 '26@

W5.010445211

Aug 25 '26@

L6.09273322

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Aaron Nola

IPERAKHBB

vs MIL4.68.80poor4.56.02.0(2)

1 this season, 1 last season · last met 102 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 13 '26@

W4.28536233

Sep 3 '25@

L5.09566266

home starts6.31.89elite7.05.01.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 6 '26vs

L7.09354111

Aug 19 '26vs

W7.010085011

Aug 8 '26vs

L5.09786222

Trends · MIL

MIL are 2-2 vs PHI this season (4 games).
MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
MIL are 4-1 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
MIL are 3-2 in Logan Henderson's last 5 away starts.
MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
MIL average 4.4 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
MIL are 2-3 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
MIL are 2-1 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 3 away starts.

Trends · PHI

PHI are 2-2 vs MIL this season (4 games).
PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
PHI are 2-3 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
PHI are 2-3 in Aaron Nola's last 5 home starts.
PHI average 3.0 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
PHI average 4.8 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
PHI are 2-3 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
PHI are 1-1 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

64°F, Overcast, Wind 13 mph ENE

APF 101 — Neutral

Flags · 2

MIL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
MIL — Logan Henderson: recent opponents high-K: CHC 26%, CHC 26%

Logan Henderson o5.5 Ks (+100)

Aaron Nola o5.5 Ks (+102)

STL @

PIT

6:40 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

M. Liberatore L

xERA4.97 (below)ERA4.91 (below)K%11.1 (poor)Whiff%20.8 (avg)BB%12.7 (below)

More Stats

HH%35.4 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs74

PIT vs LHP

wRC+195 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)BB%9.3 (avg)HH%31.4 (below)

L12

wRC+152 (elite)K%18.1 (above)Whiff%23.3 (avg)BB%7.8 (below)HH%32.2 (below)

Antwone Kelly RO

xERA3.78 (avg)ERA3.86 (avg)K%16.1 (below)Whiff%16.7 (below)BB%6.5 (good)

More Stats

HH%45.8 (poor)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs7.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs36

STL vs RHP

wRC+41 (poor)K%26.0 (below)Whiff%24.1 (avg)BB%7.3 (below)HH%45.2 (elite)

L12

wRC+64 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%20.9 (above)BB%9.2 (avg)HH%42.8 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

STL

xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

PIT

xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 4.18 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSTL+118+1.5 (-184)O7.5 (+104)PIT-134-1.5 (+160)U7.5 (-120)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSTL+110+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (+118)PIT-138-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-154)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (+104/-130)1.5 (-125/-105)PIT3.5 (-120/-105)2.5 (+124/-160)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UM. Liberatore5.5 (+123 / +132)15.5 (+150 / -154)Antwone Kelly——

M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26vs

L6.08126311

Sep 11 '26vs

W4.17226322

Sep 5 '26@

L4.16934255

Aug 30 '26vs

L5.210796234

Aug 25 '26vs

L4.09179188

Antwone Kelly · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 15 '26vs

L3.0*4432200

Sep 11 '26@

L3.0*4516033

Aug 22 '26@

L1.0*1810000

Jul 31 '26@

L3.0*4032200

Jul 12 '26vs

W2.0*5004133

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

M. Liberatore

IPERAKHBB

vs PIT5.54.39avg8.75.32.3(3)

at PIT6.17.38poor7.08.00.0(1)

2 this season, 1 last season · last met 24 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 30 '26vs

L5.210796234

May 19 '26vs

W4.27797244

May 6 '25vs

W7.09983311

Apr 7 '25@

L6.18978055

Trends · STL

STL are 6-5 vs PIT this season (11 games).
STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
STL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
STL are 1-4 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
STL are 1-4 in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
STL average 4.8 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
STL average 3.4 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
STL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
STL are 5-0 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
STL are 2-1 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 3 away starts.

Trends · PIT

PIT are 5-6 vs STL this season (11 games).
PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
PIT are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
PIT have won 5 straight.

Over / Under

PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
PIT are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
PIT are 0-2 to the over in Antwone Kelly's last 2 starts.
PIT are 0-2 to the over in Antwone Kelly's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

63°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph E

APF 98 — Neutral

Flags · 9

OPENER: PIT start Lake Bachar (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.6 IP (longest 2.3)), with Antwone Kelly (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — STL's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
PIT — Antwone Kelly: small sample: 7.0 IP over 3 starts
STL — M. Liberatore: Whiff% 20.8 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.1 shows
STL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
PIT bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-09-05: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.95 ERA equivalent
PIT — Antwone Kelly: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-15, 2026-09-11
TREND: STL — was shut out 2-0 last time out (2026-09-22)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)

AI Analysis

St. Louis's offense is ice cold (41 wRC+ vs RHP last 6) and was shut out in its last game, which explains Pittsburgh's short spread price, but Antwone Kelly is a bulk arm with only 7.0 IP of sample this season and no data vs St. Louis, making the pitching side of this card too thin to bet with confidence. Liberatore's K line (5.5) is already generous given his 11.1% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts, and Kelly has no posted props at all given his limited sample.

TBR @

NYY

7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Mason Englert R

xERA4.72 (below)ERA4.30 (avg)K%24.6 (good)Whiff%24.0 (good)BB%6.2 (good)

More Stats

HH%28.9 (elite)Barrel%15.6 (poor)IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs8.5PC/gs85

NYY vs RHP

wRC+61 (poor)K%28.1 (poor)Whiff%27.4 (below)BB%8.1 (avg)HH%31.4 (below)

L12

wRC+92 (below)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%25.0 (below)BB%7.8 (below)HH%37.8 (avg)

Gerrit Cole R

xERA6.30 (poor)ERA5.71 (poor)K%18.3 (avg)Whiff%16.4 (below)BB%0.0 (elite)

More Stats

HH%51.7 (poor)Barrel%15.5 (poor)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs84

TBR vs RHP

wRC+53 (poor)K%29.9 (poor)Whiff%19.6 (above)BB%9.1 (avg)HH%25.5 (poor)

L12

wRC+95 (avg)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%17.9 (elite)BB%6.9 (below)HH%36.7 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

TBR

xERA 1.04 (elite)ERA 2.58 (elite)2d stress Fresh (4.3 IP/2g)

NYY

xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 4.31 (avg)2d stress Fresh (3.3 IP/2g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTBR+128+1.5 (-184)O6.5 (-114)NYY-140-1.5 (+165)U6.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTBR+124+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-108)NYY-154-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (-120)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR2.5 (-145/+116)1.5 (+110/-140)NYY3.5 (+100/-122)1.5 (-135/+105)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMason Englert——Gerrit Cole5.5 (+128 / +120)17.5 (-135 / +106)

Mason Englert · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 17 '26@

L5.08848155

Jul 5 '26@

L5.210195122

Jun 12 '26@

L4.0*6534200

Jun 3 '26vs

L5.0*8234011

May 8 '26@

L3.1*4633000

Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 18 '26@

W6.09064022

Sep 12 '26vs

L4.17749055

Sep 6 '26@

L7.08436044

Sep 1 '26@

W5.19058133

Aug 27 '26vs

L6.07956133

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Gerrit Cole

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR6.02.23elite4.04.52.0(2)

all 2 this season · last met 77 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 8 '26@

L6.19767133

May 22 '26vs

L6.07222300

home starts5.75.26poor6.07.00.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 12 '26vs

L4.17749055

Aug 27 '26vs

L6.07956133

Aug 8 '26vs

W7.08296022

Trends · TBR

TBR are 7-5 vs NYY this season (12 games).
TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
TBR are 0-3 in Mason Englert's last 3 starts.
TBR are 0-2 in Mason Englert's last 2 away starts.
TBR average 1.7 runs/game in Mason Englert's last 3 starts.
TBR average 1.5 runs/game in Mason Englert's last 2 away starts.

Over / Under

TBR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · NYY

NYY are 5-7 vs TBR this season (12 games).
NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
NYY are 1-4 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 home starts.
NYY average 4.4 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
NYY average 2.4 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 4-1 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
NYY are 1-1 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

62°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph NNE

APF 99 — Neutral

Flags · 10

TBR offense: K% 29.9 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 19.6 supports
TBR bullpen fresh (4.3 IP over 2g)
NYY bullpen fresh (3.3 IP over 2g)
TBR — Mason Englert: 68 days since last start (2026-07-17) news ↗
TBR — Mason Englert: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12, 2026-06-03
TBR — Mason Englert: low-K outing 2026-04-07 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
TBR — Mason Englert: high-K outing 2026-07-05 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
TBR — Mason Englert: recent opponents high-K: CHC 26%, BOS 29%
NYY — Gerrit Cole: 2026-09-12: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.07 ERA equivalent
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)

AI Analysis

New York is favored on a mediocre Gerrit Cole, whose 6.30 xERA over his last 3 starts is poor, but Tampa Bay's own offense has been dead (53 wRC+ vs RHP last 6) and averaging 1.7 runs over its last 10, which keeps the side and total prices roughly matched to the true talent gap. Mason Englert has no posted strikeout or outs props on this card, and Cole's K line (5.5) at plus-money odds on both sides already reflects his recent inconsistency without a clear side to lean.

CLE @

BOS✓

7:10 PM · Fenway ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Foster Griffin L

xERA4.60 (below)ERA9.49 (poor)K%19.1 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (good)BB%9.5 (avg)

More Stats

HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs79

BOS vs LHP

wRC+99 (avg)K%17.3 (above)Whiff%15.3 (elite)BB%10.6 (above)HH%29.3 (poor)

L12

wRC+67 (poor)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%19.2 (above)BB%8.8 (avg)HH%29.8 (poor)

Sonny Gray R

xERA4.16 (avg)ERA2.79 (elite)K%23.7 (good)Whiff%24.5 (good)BB%10.5 (below)

More Stats

HH%40.8 (below)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs95

CLE vs RHP

wRC+109 (avg)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%21.3 (avg)BB%8.0 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)

L12

wRC+131 (elite)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%20.8 (above)BB%9.8 (above)HH%39.4 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

CLE

xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 2.22 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

BOS

xERA 3.25 (good)ERA 2.10 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCLE+114+1.5 (-199)O6.5 (-119)BOS-130-1.5 (+172)U6.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCLE+120+0.5 (-132)O3.5 (-118)BOS-150-0.5 (+102)U3.5 (-110)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE2.5 (-154/+124)1.5 (+105/-135)BOS3.5 (+108/-130)1.5 (-135/+105)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UFoster Griffin4.5 (+102 / -127)14.5 (-193 / +152)Sonny Gray4.5 (-115 / +101)17.5 (-135 / +110)

Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 15 '26vs

W4.08355222

Sep 9 '26@

L2.16247288

Sep 4 '26vs

W6.09238233

Aug 29 '26vs

L5.08244122

Aug 23 '26@

W5.010545322

Sonny Gray · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26@

W6.110263333

Sep 11 '26vs

L6.09056233

Sep 5 '26@

W7.09273300

Aug 26 '26@

L5.09357122

Aug 21 '26vs

W6.09767244

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Sonny Gray

IPERAKHBB

vs CLE7.50.60elite9.02.51.5(2)

1 this season, 1 last season · last met 116 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 30 '26@

W6.09274311

Jun 27 '25@

W9.089111000

home starts6.03.50good6.35.32.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 11 '26vs

L6.09056233

Aug 21 '26vs

W6.09767244

Aug 5 '26vs

W6.08383200

Trends · CLE

CLE are 2-2 vs BOS this season (4 games).
CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
CLE have won 6 straight.
CLE are 3-2 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
CLE are 2-1 in Foster Griffin's last 3 away starts.
CLE average 5.2 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
CLE average 6.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 3 away starts.

Over / Under

CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CLE are 2-3 to the over in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
CLE are 1-2 to the over in Foster Griffin's last 3 away starts.

Trends · BOS

BOS are 2-2 vs CLE this season (4 games).
BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
BOS are 3-2 in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
BOS are 3-2 in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
BOS average 3.4 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
BOS average 3.6 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

BOS are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
BOS are 1-4 to the over in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
BOS are 1-1 to the over in Sonny Gray's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

55°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph NE

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 5

CLE bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
CLE — Foster Griffin: 2026-09-09: 8 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 34); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
CLE — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: DET 26%, BAL 27%
BOS — Sonny Gray: last start: 102 pitches over 6.1 IP news ↗
BOS — Sonny Gray: recent opponents high-K: BAL 30%, TEX 26%

Sonny Gray o17.5 Outs (-135)

Foster Griffin u14.5 Outs (+152)

CIN @

ATL✓

7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Andrew Abbott L

xERA4.17 (avg)ERA8.44 (poor)K%19.2 (avg)Whiff%20.5 (avg)BB%9.6 (avg)

More Stats

HH%43.2 (below)Barrel%8.1 (avg)IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs66

ATL vs LHP

wRC+74 (poor)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%26.8 (below)BB%5.0 (poor)HH%32.6 (below)

L12

wRC+83 (below)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%25.2 (below)BB%6.9 (below)HH%33.3 (below)

Chris Sale L

xERA2.69 (elite)ERA2.05 (elite)K%28.2 (elite)Whiff%28.9 (elite)BB%3.5 (elite)

More Stats

HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs102

CIN vs LHP

wRC+20 (poor)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%24.7 (avg)BB%7.0 (below)HH%39.6 (avg)

L12

wRC+57 (poor)K%25.9 (below)Whiff%25.3 (below)BB%7.4 (below)HH%38.9 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

CIN

xERA 4.42 (avg)ERA 6.04 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

ATL

xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 4.15 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCIN+222+1.5 (-105)O7.5 (+100)ATL-255-1.5 (-114)U7.5 (-120)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCIN+230+1.5 (-148)O3.5 (-138)ATL-290-1.5 (+116)U3.5 (+106)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN2.5 (-120/-106)0.5 (-188/+145)ATL4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (-110/-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Abbott3.5 (-140 / +128)15.5 (+116 / +120)Chris Sale7.5 (+116 / -128)15.5 (-114 / +104)

Andrew Abbott · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26vs

W4.29853511

Sep 11 '26@

L2.04309078

Sep 5 '26vs

W4.05853012

Aug 29 '26@

L3.06818277

Aug 23 '26@

L6.08867244

Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 11 '26vs

W7.09463233

Sep 4 '26@

W6.010376122

Aug 27 '26vs

W9.0109115000

Aug 21 '26@

L6.09468022

Aug 14 '26vs

L6.010895011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Andrew Abbott

IPERAKHBB

vs ATL5.01.78elite4.54.52.5(2)

at ATL5.00.00elite8.04.00.0(1)

none this season — 2 from last season · last met 419 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 31 '25vs

L5.19615523

May 6 '25@

L5.09184000

Chris Sale

IPERAKHBB

vs CIN6.20.00elite10.05.02.0(1)

last season · last met 505 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 6 '25vs

W6.2112105200

home starts7.31.64elite8.74.30.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 11 '26vs

W7.09463233

Aug 27 '26vs

W9.0109115000

Aug 14 '26vs

L6.010895011

Trends · CIN

CIN are 2-2 vs ATL this season (4 games).
CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 2-3 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
CIN are 2-3 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
CIN average 3.8 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
CIN average 4.4 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CIN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
CIN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
CIN are 2-1 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 3 away starts.

Trends · ATL

ATL are 2-2 vs CIN this season (4 games).
ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
ATL are 3-2 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
ATL are 4-1 in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
ATL average 2.6 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
ATL average 5.6 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

ATL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
ATL are 1-4 to the over in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
ATL are 1-2 to the over in Chris Sale's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

73°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph ENE

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 7

CIN — Andrew Abbott: avg 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3
ATL offense: Whiff% 26.8 (last 6) runs well above what K% 18.3 shows
ATL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
CIN — Andrew Abbott: 2026-09-11: 7 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 32); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.20 ERA equivalent
ATL — Chris Sale: 12 days since last start (2026-09-11) news ↗
ATL — Chris Sale: recent opponents low-K: LAD 17%, PHI 17%, PHI 17%
TREND: ATL — was shut out 4-0 last time out (2026-09-22)

Chris Sale Outs o15.5 (-110)

Andrew Abbott Outs u14.5 (+130)

MIA @

CHC✓

7:40 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Ryan Gusto R

xERA6.38 (poor)ERA5.40 (poor)K%16.9 (below)Whiff%15.8 (below)BB%8.5 (avg)

More Stats

HH%42.3 (below)Barrel%15.4 (poor)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs92

CHC vs RHP

wRC+124 (above)K%26.0 (below)Whiff%19.8 (above)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)

L12

wRC+124 (above)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%18.9 (above)BB%10.2 (above)HH%37.0 (avg)

Kevin Gausman R

xERA4.05 (avg)ERA4.86 (below)K%29.2 (elite)Whiff%29.4 (elite)BB%4.2 (elite)

More Stats

HH%47.9 (poor)Barrel%12.5 (below)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs97

MIA vs RHP

wRC+93 (below)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%20.9 (above)BB%9.7 (above)HH%34.6 (below)

L12

wRC+119 (above)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)BB%8.7 (avg)HH%39.8 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

MIA

xERA 3.40 (good)ERA 4.89 (below)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)

CHC

xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 3.40 (good)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIA+149+1.5 (-150)O6.5 (-120)CHC-172-1.5 (+138)U6.5 (+101)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIA+140+0.5 (-120)O3.5 (-115)CHC-172-0.5 (-108)U3.5 (-113)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA2.5 (-130/+104)1.5 (+120/-154)CHC3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-145/+114)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/URyan Gusto3.5 (-132 / +105)15.5 (+132 / -160)Kevin Gausman5.5 (-138 / +111)17.5 (-188 / +140)

Ryan Gusto · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26@

W4.18648122

Sep 11 '26vs

L6.08935322

Sep 5 '26vs

L4.2100510255

Aug 31 '26@

L4.16944211

Aug 26 '26vs

W5.28924300

Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 15 '26vs

L5.29465022

Sep 9 '26@

L4.09468267

Sep 3 '26vs

W7.010395111

Aug 29 '26vs

W5.010276255

Aug 24 '26@

W7.09463100

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ryan Gusto

IPERAKHBB

vs CHC4.210.71poor5.010.02.0(1)

at CHC—

this season · last met 18 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 5 '26vs

L4.2100510255

Kevin Gausman

IPERAKHBB

vs MIA5.54.09avg6.06.51.5(2)

1 this season, 1 last season · last met 119 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 27 '26vs

W5.09556211

Aug 24 '25@

L6.09477144

home starts5.74.19avg7.35.31.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 15 '26vs

L5.29465022

Sep 3 '26vs

W7.010395111

Aug 29 '26vs

W5.010276255

Trends · MIA

MIA are 2-2 vs CHC this season (4 games).
MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
MIA are 2-3 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
MIA are 2-3 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 away starts.
MIA average 3.6 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
MIA average 4.2 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

MIA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 away games.
MIA are 3-2 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
MIA are 2-1 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 3 away starts.

Trends · CHC

CHC are 2-2 vs MIA this season (4 games).
CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CHC are 3-2 in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
CHC are 4-1 in Kevin Gausman's last 5 home starts.
CHC average 7.0 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
CHC average 8.4 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CHC are 3-2 to the over in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
CHC are 2-1 to the over in Kevin Gausman's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

61°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph ENE

APF 94 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 7

MIA offense: K% 25.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 20.9 supports
CHC offense: K% 26.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 19.8 supports
MIA bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
CHC bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
MIA — Ryan Gusto: 2026-09-05: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.70 ERA equivalent
CHC — Kevin Gausman: 2026-09-09: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.37 ERA equivalent
CHC — Kevin Gausman: recent opponents high-K: MIL 34%, MIL 34%

CHC Team Total o3.5 (-111)

Kevin Gausman o5.5 Ks (-138)

CHW @

KCR✓

7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Erick Fedde RO

xERA4.96 (below)ERA1.80 (elite)K%14.8 (below)Whiff%19.2 (avg)BB%8.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs7.5 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs84

KCR vs RHP

wRC+120 (above)K%21.5 (avg)Whiff%21.6 (avg)BB%7.6 (below)HH%37.5 (avg)

L12

wRC+105 (avg)K%23.0 (avg)Whiff%21.8 (avg)BB%8.2 (avg)HH%40.1 (above)

Seth Lugo R

xERA3.85 (avg)ERA5.40 (poor)K%18.6 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)BB%7.1 (avg)

More Stats

HH%40.4 (below)Barrel%11.5 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs89

CHW vs RHP

wRC+96 (avg)K%30.6 (poor)Whiff%25.7 (below)BB%7.3 (below)HH%38.7 (avg)

L12

wRC+70 (poor)K%30.2 (poor)Whiff%29.4 (poor)BB%10.0 (above)HH%33.3 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

CHW

xERA 5.08 (below)ERA 4.68 (below)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

KCR

xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 5.62 (poor)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHW-115-1.5 (+142)O8.5 (-109)KCR-102+1.5 (-165)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHW-108+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-118)KCR-115-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (-110)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW4.5 (+106/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)KCR3.5 (-140/+110)2.5 (+120/-154)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UErick Fedde——Seth Lugo4.5 (+102 / -120)15.5 (+141 / -155)

Erick Fedde · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26vs

W4.28964211

Sep 10 '26vs

L5.1*8114122

Sep 4 '26vs

W5.08323200

Aug 29 '26@

W5.08843222

Aug 23 '26vs

W4.0*5623100

Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26@

L5.07658144

Sep 11 '26@

W5.09577222

Sep 5 '26vs

L5.09518233

Aug 30 '26@

L3.29329299

Aug 25 '26@

W5.08956111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Erick Fedde

IPERAKHBB

vs KCR4.74.44avg3.04.71.3(3)

at KCR4.64.89below3.54.01.5(2)

2 this season, 1 last season · last met 134 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 12 '26vs

W5.08026122

Apr 11 '26@

L5.08543111

Jul 29 '25@

L4.27835244

Seth Lugo

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW5.44.47avg4.35.72.7(3)

2 this season, 1 last season · last met 133 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 13 '26@

L5.09248255

Apr 9 '26vs

L6.19244412

Jun 6 '25@

L5.09755222

home starts5.75.82poor3.07.31.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 5 '26vs

L5.09518233

Aug 19 '26vs

W6.09639055

Aug 8 '26vs

W6.09055133

Trends · CHW

CHW are 8-3 vs KCR this season (11 games).
CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
CHW are 5-0 in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
CHW are 5-0 in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.
CHW average 5.6 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
CHW average 7.2 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CHW are 1-4 to the over in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
CHW are 0-2 to the over in Erick Fedde's last 2 away starts.

Trends · KCR

KCR are 3-8 vs CHW this season (11 games).
KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
KCR have lost 5 straight.
KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
KCR are 4-1 in Seth Lugo's last 5 home starts.
KCR average 2.8 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
KCR average 6.0 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
KCR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
KCR are 2-3 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
KCR are 1-1 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

74°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph ENE

APF 101 — Neutral

Flags · 9

OPENER: CHW start Bryan Hudson (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 0.9 IP (longest 1.3)), with Erick Fedde (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — KCR's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
CHW bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.08 over its last 12
CHW bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
KCR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
CHW — Erick Fedde: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-10, 2026-08-23
CHW — Erick Fedde: recent opponents high-K: MIN 26%, MIN 26%
KCR — Seth Lugo: last start: 76 pitches over 5.0 IP news ↗
KCR — Seth Lugo: 2026-09-17: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)

Seth Lugo u15.5 Outs (-155)

NYM @

TEX

8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Nolan McLean R

xERA4.26 (avg)ERA4.24 (avg)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%19.1 (avg)BB%10.3 (below)

More Stats

HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs96

TEX vs RHP

wRC+79 (poor)K%25.9 (below)Whiff%28.0 (poor)BB%12.6 (elite)HH%32.1 (below)

L12

wRC+80 (below)K%26.6 (below)Whiff%30.1 (poor)BB%10.5 (above)HH%37.6 (avg)

Cody Bradford L

xERA4.65 (below)ERA5.84 (poor)K%12.7 (below)Whiff%14.4 (below)BB%7.3 (avg)

More Stats

HH%31.8 (good)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs74

NYM vs LHP

wRC+120 (above)K%13.4 (elite)Whiff%13.2 (elite)BB%9.8 (above)HH%56.5 (elite)

L12

wRC+73 (poor)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%18.0 (above)BB%8.8 (avg)HH%50.0 (elite)

Bullpens · Last 12

NYM

xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 4.47 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

TEX

xERA 3.44 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalNYM-108-1.5 (+155)O8.0 (-105)TEX-108+1.5 (-185)U7.5 (-106)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalNYM-125-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (+106)TEX+102+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-138)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-166/+130)TEX3.5 (-113/+100)1.5 (-135/+105)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UNolan McLean5.5 (-118 / -104)17.5 (-108 / -115)Cody Bradford2.5 (-158 / +132)13.5 (-103 / -112)

Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26vs

L6.08257311

Sep 11 '26@

L5.0101510155

Sep 4 '26vs

W6.010576422

Aug 29 '26vs

W7.09342301

Aug 23 '26@

L6.09261400

Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26vs

L4.1*7333100

Sep 9 '26@

L4.06314233

Sep 2 '26vs

L4.08637155

Aug 28 '26@

L5.210009233

Aug 22 '26vs

L5.18037022

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Nolan McLean

IPERAKHBB

vs TEX6.00.00elite7.05.02.0(1)

at TEX—

last season · last met 374 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 14 '25vs

W6.09275200

Cody Bradford

IPERAKHBB

vs NYM—

home starts4.56.92poor3.07.00.5(2)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 2 '26vs

L4.08637155

Aug 22 '26vs

L5.18037022

Trends · NYM

NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
NYM are 2-3 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
NYM are 2-3 in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
NYM average 4.2 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
NYM average 4.8 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

NYM are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
NYM are 3-2 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
NYM are 2-1 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 3 away starts.

Trends · TEX

TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
TEX are 0-5 in Cody Bradford's last 5 starts.
TEX are 1-2 in Cody Bradford's last 3 home starts.
TEX average 1.4 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 5 starts.
TEX average 2.7 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 3 home starts.

Over / Under

TEX are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
TEX are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TEX are 1-4 to the over in Cody Bradford's last 5 starts.
TEX are 1-2 to the over in Cody Bradford's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 6

TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
NYM — Nolan McLean: 2026-09-11: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.25 ERA equivalent
NYM — Nolan McLean: recent opponents high-K: SFG 39%, NYY 28%
TEX — Cody Bradford: 14 days since last start (2026-09-09) news ↗
TEX — Cody Bradford: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-17
TEX — Cody Bradford: last start: 63 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗

AI Analysis

The moneyline is a pick'em and neither team's recent form points clearly enough one way to beat that price — Nolan McLean's 4.26 xERA is middling and Cody Bradford's 4.65 xERA with a near-two-week layoff is shaky but Texas's offense (79 wRC+ vs RHP last 6) is too weak to expect a big Rangers total. McLean's strikeout (5.5) and outs (17.5) lines already sit at his recent form, and Bradford's K line at 2.5 already reflects his dreadful recent strikeout output (0, 3, 1 over his last 3), leaving no props with real value.

ARI @

COL

8:40 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Merrill Kelly R

xERA2.84 (elite)ERA4.20 (avg)K%23.9 (good)Whiff%22.4 (avg)BB%7.5 (avg)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs88

COL vs RHP

wRC+75 (poor)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%22.7 (avg)BB%7.3 (below)HH%39.0 (avg)

L12

wRC+91 (below)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)BB%5.9 (poor)HH%35.6 (avg)

Mason Adams R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

ARI vs RHP

wRC+101 (avg)K%23.1 (avg)Whiff%20.5 (above)BB%8.6 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)

L12

wRC+112 (avg)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%40.4 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

ARI

xERA 2.81 (elite)ERA 2.14 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

COL

xERA 3.75 (avg)ERA 5.40 (poor)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalARI-155-1.5 (-105)O11.5 (+100)COL+134+1.5 (-113)U11.5 (-118)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalARI-132-0.5 (-104)O6.5 (+106)COL+106+0.5 (-125)U6.5 (-138)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI6.5 (+104/-130)2.5 (-145/+114)COL4.5 (-130/+105)2.5 (-120/-110)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMerrill Kelly3.5 (-127 / +108)15.5 (-110 / -114)Mason Adams3.5 (+110 / -133)13.5 (-121 / +102)

Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26vs

L4.29197234

Sep 11 '26vs

W4.18032311

Sep 4 '26@

L6.09447033

Aug 29 '26@

W7.010072400

Aug 24 '26vs

L5.29945333

Mason Adams · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26vs

L4.18418366

Sep 11 '26@

L5.07752311

Sep 5 '26vs

W4.27878133

Aug 30 '26@

L5.07455222

Aug 25 '26@

W4.07553311

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Merrill Kelly

IPERAKHBB

vs COL6.74.05avg4.05.32.0(3)

at COL7.51.80elite5.05.01.5(2)

2 this season, 1 last season · last met 42 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 12 '26vs

L5.07126366

May 15 '26@

W9.010034011

Jun 21 '25@

W6.09476323

Mason Adams

IPERAKHBB

vs ARI—

home starts4.29.76poor4.08.02.0(2)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26vs

L4.18418366

Sep 5 '26vs

W4.27878133

Trends · ARI

ARI are 7-4 vs COL this season (11 games).
ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
ARI are 2-3 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
ARI average 4.0 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
ARI average 2.8 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
ARI are 2-3 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
ARI are 1-1 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 2 away starts.

Trends · COL

COL are 4-7 vs ARI this season (11 games).
COL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
COL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
COL are 2-3 in Mason Adams's last 5 starts.
COL are 1-1 in Mason Adams's last 2 home starts.
COL average 4.0 runs/game in Mason Adams's last 5 starts.
COL average 6.5 runs/game in Mason Adams's last 2 home starts.

Over / Under

COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
COL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

69°F, Overcast, Wind 11 mph SSW

APF 112 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

COL — Mason Adams: first start of the season — no stats available yet
ARI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
COL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g)
COL — Mason Adams: 2026-09-16: 6 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.11 ERA equivalent
WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 112)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)

AI Analysis

Merrill Kelly's 2.84 xERA over his last 3 starts is elite and Colorado's offense has been poor vs RHP over its last 6 (75 wRC+), but Coors Field's altitude and Colorado's history of scoring at home cut against leaning too hard on that gap, and Arizona's -155 price already reflects the mismatch. Mason Adams is making his first start of the season with no stats on record, which rules out any prop or side read built on him, and Kelly's own K (3.5) and outs (15.5) lines are already priced close to his recent form with no clear mispricing either way.

LAA @

ATH✓

9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Walbert Urena R

xERA2.47 (elite)ERA2.14 (elite)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%31.5 (elite)BB%3.8 (elite)

More Stats

HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs93

ATH vs RHP

wRC+109 (avg)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%26.1 (below)BB%5.7 (poor)HH%31.6 (below)

L12

wRC+94 (below)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)BB%6.0 (poor)HH%31.5 (below)

Jeffrey Springs L

xERA3.39 (good)ERA4.70 (below)K%17.2 (avg)Whiff%20.4 (avg)BB%9.4 (avg)

More Stats

HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs80

LAA vs LHP

wRC+105 (avg)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%22.1 (avg)BB%9.9 (above)HH%50.0 (elite)

L12

wRC+110 (avg)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%23.9 (avg)BB%9.0 (avg)HH%47.3 (elite)

Bullpens · Last 12

LAA

xERA 4.03 (avg)ERA 5.79 (poor)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)

ATH

xERA 4.47 (avg)ERA 3.81 (avg)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalLAA-130-1.5 (+120)O9.5 (-105)ATH+114+1.5 (-143)U9.5 (-112)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalLAA-130-0.5 (-102)O5.5 (+108)ATH+114+0.5 (-128)U5.5 (-140)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA4.5 (-140/+110)2.5 (-115/-115)ATH4.5 (+110/-135)2.5 (+114/-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UWalbert Urena4.5 (-130 / +104)17.5 (+100 / -132)Jeffrey Springs4.5 (-130 / +107)14.5 (-155 / +120)

Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26vs

W7.09194000

Sep 12 '26@

L6.010179244

Sep 6 '26@

L8.08843111

Aug 31 '26vs

W7.09585011

Aug 25 '26vs

L3.28935533

Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26@

L3.16645266

Sep 11 '26vs

W5.09416222

Sep 5 '26@

W7.08162200

Aug 30 '26vs

L4.29066177

Aug 24 '26vs

L4.28937244

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Walbert Urena

IPERAKHBB

vs ATH5.04.17avg5.04.71.3(3)

at ATH5.00.00elite6.04.00.0(1)

all 3 this season · last met 89 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 26 '26vs

L4.17156277

Jun 20 '26@

W5.09064000

May 18 '26vs

W6.09244200

Jeffrey Springs

IPERAKHBB

vs LAA3.713.38poor4.56.03.5(2)

1 this season, 1 last season · last met 96 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 19 '26vs

W3.28644466

Aug 17 '25vs

L4.210058355

home starts4.58.73poor3.36.31.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 11 '26vs

W5.09416222

Aug 30 '26vs

L4.29066177

Aug 24 '26vs

L4.28937244

Trends · LAA

LAA are 5-7 vs ATH this season (12 games).
LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
LAA are 2-3 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
LAA are 1-4 in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.
LAA average 5.2 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
LAA average 4.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

LAA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
LAA are 4-1 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
LAA are 1-2 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 3 away starts.

Trends · ATH

ATH are 7-5 vs LAA this season (12 games).
ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
ATH are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
ATH are 2-3 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
ATH average 4.8 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
ATH average 4.2 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
ATH are 4-1 to the over in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
ATH are 2-1 to the over in Jeffrey Springs's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

89°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph WNW

APF 108 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

ATH bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
ATH — Jeffrey Springs: last start: 66 pitches over 3.1 IP news ↗
ATH — Jeffrey Springs: 2026-09-17: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)

Walbert Urena Outs o17.5 (-119)

LAA -1.5 (+120)

SDP @

LAD✓

10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Robbie Ray L

xERA5.43 (poor)ERA8.78 (poor)K%19.1 (avg)Whiff%24.2 (good)BB%15.9 (poor)

More Stats

HH%42.5 (below)Barrel%2.5 (elite)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs83

LAD vs LHP

wRC+186 (elite)K%16.8 (above)Whiff%17.3 (elite)BB%10.5 (above)HH%34.8 (below)

L12

wRC+152 (elite)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%17.6 (elite)BB%10.8 (above)HH%36.0 (avg)

Y. Yamamoto R

xERA2.08 (elite)ERA2.14 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)Whiff%38.7 (elite)BB%6.7 (good)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs91

SDP vs RHP

wRC+154 (elite)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (avg)BB%7.9 (below)HH%35.1 (avg)

L12

wRC+154 (elite)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%22.1 (avg)BB%8.2 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

SDP

xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 3.91 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

LAD

xERA 2.35 (elite)ERA 2.81 (elite)2d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSDP+188+1.5 (-115)O8.5 (+106)LAD-224-1.5 (+100)U8.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSDP+180+0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-113)LAD-230-0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-115)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (+122/-145)1.5 (-105/-125)LAD4.5 (-113/-110)2.5 (-120/-110)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/URobbie Ray3.5 (-128 / +114)14.5 (-136 / +102)Y. Yamamoto6.5 (-104 / -121)18.5 (+124 / +124)

Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26@

W6.08863233

Sep 11 '26@

W5.09454455

Sep 5 '26vs

L2.16815455

Aug 30 '26@

L6.09343311

Aug 24 '26vs

L5.19955222

Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 15 '26@

W7.09171200

Sep 9 '26vs

W7.090103111

Sep 2 '26vs

L7.09385244

Aug 27 '26@

L6.110584111

Aug 21 '26vs

W6.110795122

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Robbie Ray

IPERAKHBB

vs LAD4.19.44poor4.06.02.7(3)

at LAD4.28.57poor3.56.02.0(2)

1 this season, 2 last season · last met 133 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 13 '26@

L4.29527234

Sep 19 '25@

L4.28455255

Sep 14 '25vs

L4.09856455

Y. Yamamoto

IPERAKHBB

vs SDP6.71.35elite7.33.72.0(3)

all 3 this season · last met 81 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 4 '26vs

W7.0100103200

Jun 27 '26@

W6.08945222

May 18 '26@

L7.010783211

home starts6.73.13good9.04.31.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 9 '26vs

W7.090103111

Sep 2 '26vs

L7.09385244

Aug 21 '26vs

W6.110795122

Trends · SDP

SDP are 3-8 vs LAD this season (11 games).
SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
SDP are 2-3 in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
SDP are 3-1 in Robbie Ray's last 4 away starts.
SDP average 4.6 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
SDP average 6.2 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 4 away starts.

Over / Under

SDP are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
SDP are 3-2 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
SDP are 3-0 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 3 away starts.

Trends · LAD

LAD are 8-3 vs SDP this season (11 games).
LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
LAD are 10-0 in their last 10 home games.
LAD have won 5 straight.
LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
LAD average 5.8 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
LAD average 6.0 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

LAD are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
LAD are 3-2 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
LAD are 3-0 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

70°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph W

APF 103 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 4

SDP bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
LAD bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g)
TREND: SDP — was shut out 7-0 last time out (2026-09-22)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)

LAD -1.5 (+100)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto o18.5 Outs (+124)

Robbie Ray u3.5 Ks (+114)

HOU @

SEA

10:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Ethan Pecko R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

SEA vs RHP

wRC+61 (poor)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%24.9 (avg)BB%6.0 (poor)HH%37.4 (avg)

L12

wRC+98 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%25.3 (below)BB%6.6 (below)HH%42.3 (above)

George Kirby R

xERA5.63 (poor)ERA4.76 (below)K%19.2 (avg)Whiff%24.5 (good)BB%10.3 (below)

More Stats

HH%32.7 (good)Barrel%5.5 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs98

HOU vs RHP

wRC+128 (above)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%27.3 (below)BB%5.7 (poor)HH%37.6 (avg)

L12

wRC+101 (avg)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (avg)BB%7.0 (below)HH%37.6 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

HOU

xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 5.40 (poor)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)

SEA

xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 4.30 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalHOU+108+1.5 (-185)O8.0 (-105)SEA-125-1.5 (+162)U7.5 (-102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalHOU+120+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (+102)SEA-142-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-132)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU3.5 (-115/-111)1.5 (-120/-110)SEA3.5 (-130/+110)2.5 (+114/-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UEthan Pecko4.5 (+131 / +130)14.5 (-135 / +104)George Kirby4.5 (-130 / +110)18.5 (+102 / +134)

Ethan Pecko · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 17 '26vs

W5.2*7143011

Sep 11 '26@

L5.2*7541211

Sep 5 '26vs

L4.18125111

Aug 30 '26@

W5.08343223

Aug 25 '26@

W4.18815455

George Kirby · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26@

W4.19355522

Sep 11 '26@

L6.010159244

Sep 5 '26vs

L6.210057134

Aug 31 '26@

L5.08627255

Aug 25 '26vs

W7.29296111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

George Kirby

IPERAKHBB

vs HOU5.54.39avg5.07.32.0(3)

all 3 this season · last met 40 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14 '26@

L4.29928355

May 11 '26@

W5.09977211

Apr 13 '26vs

W7.29967122

home starts6.12.45elite5.35.71.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 5 '26vs

L6.210057134

Aug 25 '26vs

W7.29296111

Aug 8 '26vs

L5.09924211

Trends · HOU

HOU are 3-9 vs SEA this season (12 games).
HOU are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
HOU are 3-1 in Ethan Pecko's last 4 starts.
HOU are 2-0 in Ethan Pecko's last 2 away starts.
HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Ethan Pecko's last 4 starts.
HOU average 7.5 runs/game in Ethan Pecko's last 2 away starts.

Over / Under

HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · SEA

SEA are 9-3 vs HOU this season (12 games).
SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
SEA are 2-3 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
SEA are 3-2 in George Kirby's last 5 home starts.
SEA average 5.2 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
SEA average 4.6 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
SEA are 4-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
SEA are 1-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

56°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph NNE

APF 89 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 9

HOU — Ethan Pecko: first start of the season — no stats available yet
HOU bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g)
SEA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
HOU — Ethan Pecko: 18 days since last start (2026-09-05) news ↗
HOU — Ethan Pecko: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-17, 2026-09-11
HOU — Ethan Pecko: 2026-08-25: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.90 ERA equivalent
WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 89)
TREND: SEA — was shut out 7-0 last time out (2026-09-22)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)

AI Analysis

George Kirby's 5.63 xERA over his last 3 starts is poor and Seattle's offense has been weak vs RHP (61 wRC+ last 6), but Ethan Pecko is making his first start of the season with no stats and an 18-day layoff, which rules out betting his side of this game or any of his props. Kirby's own K (4.5) and outs (18.5) lines are close to fair given his recent workload and history against Houston, leaving no clean prop angle on either arm.

Legend · badges & abbreviations

Badges

R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.

Starting pitcher · last 3 starts

xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.

Offense

wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.

Bullpen

2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.

Odds

MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.

Recent-outing table

Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.

Weather and park

APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.