MLB Game Overviews

Thursday, June 25, 2026

Updated 17:24 UTC · Odds Updated 04:24 UTC

AI Picks · 8 Bets · Jun 25
HOU @ DET u9.0 (-112)
Troy Melton is genuinely elite (xERA 2.98, recent ERA 1.78 over 3 starts) going deep (6.3 IP/gs) with one of the best bullpens in baseball backing him (DET xERA 2.45, ERA 1.52 — elite). Tatsuya Imai has a massive ERA/xERA gap (7.71 ERA vs 2.82 xERA) suggesting bad luck — his recent ERA of 2.12 (last 3 starts, excluding the skewed outlier) reflects his true elite-level talent. Both starters have strong xERAs sub-3.00. HOU bullpen is also solid (xERA 3.30). The 9.0 total is generous for a game with two elite-xERA pitchers both in good recent form and two of the best bullpens on today's slate. Both offenses are dangerous (HOU 124, DET 120 wRC+) but these pitchers have been suppressing offenses effectively.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
PHI -1.5 (+101)
C. Sanchez is on a historic run (recent ERA 1.29 over 3 starts, all 7.0 IP outings) with a great track record vs WSN specifically (2.67 ERA, 5.0 IP/gs). PHI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 146 in L12), giving a strong compound edge. Cavalli is improving recently (3.94 ERA in last 3) but his xERA 6.66 is poor and PHI historically handles him. The +101 line for PHI -1.5 is exceptional value — getting plus money on a heavy favorite's run line, driven by the Sanchez edge and dominant PHI offense. Both bullpens are average-to-below which doesn't hurt this spread play (Sanchez eats 7 innings anyway). PHI 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts; WSN just 2-3 at home in Cavalli's last 5.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
C. Sanchez Ks o6.5 (+102)
Sanchez is in elite form (recent ERA 1.29, averaging 9.0 K/start in last 3); his xERA is 3.16 with a 24.0 K%; WSN vs LHP has a 25.0 K% — one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball, which is BETTER than the high-K TOR/MIL teams he just dominated; Sanchez has 6.5 K/gs historical vs WSN; he's averaging 6.2 IP/gs and has been going 7 full innings in each of his last 3 starts with 97-107 pitch counts, so he'll have the innings to accumulate Ks; the adjusted K expectation (~8-9) is well above the 6.5 line; +102 offers genuine value.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
NYY @ BOS u8.0 (-105)
Elite pitching matchup: Schlittler xERA 2.76 (season ERA 0.96 << xERA, but still elite) with a dominant recent history vs BOS (1.36 ERA, 6.6 IP/gs in 2 starts, 1.12 ERA at Fenway). Connelly Early is genuinely good (xERA 3.10, recent ERA 3.31 trending toward his true talent), with a strong 7.0 IP/0 ER outing just last time. Both bullpens are strong: NYY 3.51 xERA, BOS 2.71 xERA — best pen combo of the entire slate, which protects the low number all 9 innings. BOS offense vs RHP is cold (wRC+ 94 in L12) against an elite pitcher dominating them specifically. NYY vs LHP is average (114 wRC+). STL run-support trends are irrelevant here — BOS averages just 4.0 RS in Early's starts. The 8.0 total is a fair market number with real under edge given both starter quality and elite bullpen support.
Found at 11:38 AM ET
NYY -1.5 (+120)
Cam Schlittler has an elite xERA 2.76, and his matchup history vs BOS is outstanding (1.36 ERA, 6.6 IP/gs over 2 starts including a 1.12 ERA / 8.0 IP at this very park). NYY is 4-1 in his last 5 starts with 6.6 RS avg, and 4-1 on the road. Connelly Early struggles at home (5.52 ERA in last 3 home starts) and vs NYY (5.29 ERA). BOS offense is below average in L12 (wRC+ 94). NYY bullpen is excellent (xERA 3.51, ERA 3.00) and BOS bullpen is also solid (xERA 2.71), meaning the pitching edge for NYY is not eroded by pen risk. Getting NYY -1.5 at +120 is excellent value — essentially being paid to take the better team with the better pitcher in a favorable matchup.
Found at 12:51 PM ET
ARI @ STL o9.0 (-105)
Strong over case: Zac Gallen is in acute collapse (recent ERA 7.75 vs xERA 5.38 — both signal runs, 9.39 season ERA), McGreevy has a sketchy xERA (4.78) with a bad start recently and a 10.2% barrel rate; STL offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 138, 45.4 HH%); ARI offense is average but STL bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.64, ERA 6.69 — a disqualifying-level pen meaning runs WILL come after 5); both starters average <6 IP/gs, so both shaky pens will see a lot of action; Gallen has a 6.92 ERA in his only career start at Busch Stadium; combined signals strongly favor runs well exceeding 9 on this total.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
SEA @ PIT u8.5 (-115)
Bryce Miller is elite: xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 in last 3 starts (17 IP, 0 ER), K% 37.1 — he is completely locked in right now. SEA bullpen xERA 2.40 is the best in the entire slate and will protect the number. SEA offense is poor (wRC+ 74 vs RHP in L12, worst of all teams today). Chandler has been struggling recently (7.20 recent ERA) but his xERA 2.83 and strikeout profile suggest regression toward true talent; the flag about the skewing start is noted, and his other recent outings show upward trajectory. PIT offense at 134 wRC+ is dangerous but Miller is so dominant that this doesn't concern greatly. The 8.5 total requires both sides to get to 5+ runs each — Miller's 0.00 ERA over 17 recent innings makes that nearly impossible on the SEA side, and SEA's elite bullpen suppresses PIT. PNC Park is neutral (APF 100).
Found at 11:38 AM ET
SEA @ PIT F5 u4.5 (-122)
Bryce Miller is historically elite (xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 over last 3 starts, 37.1 K%, 1.42 season ERA); SEA offense is very cold (wRC+ 74 L12, worst in this slate) facing Chandler who despite recent struggles has a 2.83 xERA; the first 5 innings are dominated by two starters with strong suppression profiles, limiting the F5 total; both teams combined score <4.5 in the first 5 innings is very plausible with Miller elite and SEA offense ice-cold; limiting to F5 avoids the shaky Chandler bullpen exposure and the risk of both bullpens inflating the full-game total.
Found at 11:51 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
KCR @ TBR
12:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Noah Cameron L
xERA3.78 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA4.11IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs101BB%2.9
TBR vs LHP
wRC+80 (below avg)K%18.8 (above avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)
Griffin Jax R
xERA5.17 (below avg)K%25.4 (good)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA1.20IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs73BB%3.6
KCR vs RHP
wRC+141 (elite)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+120+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-105)TBR-136-1.5 (+164)U8.5 (-114)
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ TBRL5.010858355
Jun 18vs STLW5.010868234
Jun 13vs HOUL4.18617044
Jun 7@ MINW6.010473001
Jun 2@ CINL7.08781011
Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs KCRW5.08875202
Jun 19vs WSNW5.06954022
Jun 13@ LAAL5.06355001
Jun 7@ MIAL5.06243200
Jun 1vs DETL4.07257166
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.54.054.04.54.0(2)
at TBR5.54.054.04.54.0(2)
Griffin Jax
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.00.007.05.02.0(1)
home starts4.75.145.75.31.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.14 (avg)ERA 4.50
TBR
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 5.44
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 3
  • TBR — Griffin Jax: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: recent opponents low-K: STL 14%, TBR 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
SEA @ PIT
12:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryan Woo R
xERA4.09 (avg)K%26.7 (good)HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%9.6 (avg)ERA5.89IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs86BB%2.7
PIT vs RHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%23.8 (avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Braxton Ashcraft R
xERA3.44 (good)K%22.2 (avg)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%4.0 (elite)ERA5.06IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs90BB%6.9
SEA vs RHP
wRC+69 (poor)K%23.8 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-138-1.5 (+126)O8.5 (-108)PIT+120+1.5 (-143)U8.5 (-105)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ PITL4.08646255
Jun 18vs BALW7.08993100
Jun 11@ BALL5.08247177
Jun 5@ DETL6.19079055
May 30vs ARIW7.08692000
Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs SEAW6.086105011
Jun 17@ ATHW6.09374312
Jun 12vs MIAL5.09045222
Jun 6@ ATLL5.08659066
May 31vs MINW6.080115022
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.04.506.04.52.0(2)
at PIT4.011.254.06.02.0(1)
Braxton Ashcraft
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA6.01.5010.05.00.0(1)
home starts5.72.658.35.00.7(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 2.53 (elite)ERA 4.68
PIT
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 5.11
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 11 mph SW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 2
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: recent opponents high-K: BAL 27%, BAL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
SEA @ PIT u8.5 (-115)
Bryce Miller is elite: xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 in last 3 starts (17 IP, 0 ER), K% 37.1 — he is completely locked in right now. SEA bullpen xERA 2.40 is the best in the entire slate and will protect the number. SEA offense is poor (wRC+ 74 vs RHP in L12, worst of all teams today). Chandler has been struggling recently (7.20 recent ERA) but his xERA 2.83 and strikeout profile suggest regression toward true talent; the flag about the skewing start is noted, and his other recent outings show upward trajectory. PIT offense at 134 wRC+ is dangerous but Miller is so dominant that this doesn't concern greatly. The 8.5 total requires both sides to get to 5+ runs each — Miller's 0.00 ERA over 17 recent innings makes that nearly impossible on the SEA side, and SEA's elite bullpen suppresses PIT. PNC Park is neutral (APF 100).
SEA @ PIT F5 u4.5 (-122)
Bryce Miller is historically elite (xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00 over last 3 starts, 37.1 K%, 1.42 season ERA); SEA offense is very cold (wRC+ 74 L12, worst in this slate) facing Chandler who despite recent struggles has a 2.83 xERA; the first 5 innings are dominated by two starters with strong suppression profiles, limiting the F5 total; both teams combined score <4.5 in the first 5 innings is very plausible with Miller elite and SEA offense ice-cold; limiting to F5 avoids the shaky Chandler bullpen exposure and the risk of both bullpens inflating the full-game total.
ATH @ SFG
3:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Gage Jump L
xERA2.91 (elite)K%23.2 (good)HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA1.47IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs93BB%10.1
SFG vs LHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%19.6 (above avg)HH%42.1 (above avg)
Tyler Mahle R
xERA2.86 (elite)K%22.4 (avg)HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%4.2 (elite)ERA8.40IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs77BB%6.0
ATH vs RHP
wRC+150 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)HH%36.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+113+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-115)SFG-130-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (+100)
Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ SFGL5.09793100
Jun 18vs LAAW7.010771300
Jun 12vs COLW5.07565133
Jun 7@ HOUW6.19633300
Jun 2@ CHCW7.08553111
Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs ATHW5.27042200
May 26vs ARIL5.08133333
May 20@ ARIL5.07968066
May 15@ ATHL5.090610155
May 10vs PITW5.29785244
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.00.009.03.01.0(1)
at SFG5.00.009.03.01.0(1)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.43.335.35.71.3(3)
home starts5.14.095.03.32.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 7.14
SFG
xERA 4.78 (below avg)ERA 4.66
Weather · Neutral Conditions
62°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 12 mph WSW
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • ATH — Gage Jump: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, LAA 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • SFG — Tyler Mahle: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • SFG — Tyler Mahle: 2026-05-20: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • SFG — Tyler Mahle: recent opponents low-K: ARI 19%, ARI 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Gage Jump is elite (xERA 2.91, recent ERA 1.99) which caps the over, but Mahle's xERA 2.86 is also elite despite the ugly recent ERA — his recent struggles are driven by a single 6-ER blowup skewing the sample per the flagged note, and the market's U8.5 +100 line already reflects that the starters are dominant. ATH's run-support in Jump's starts averages only 3.8 RS and 2.7 RS away, so there's no clean side angle. The combination of two elite xERAs, modest run support trends, and a total that seems fairly priced makes this a pass.
PHI @ WSN
6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Aaron Nola R
xERA3.43 (good)K%18.8 (avg)HH%34.7 (good)Barrel%8.2 (avg)ERA6.43IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs89BB%10.1
WSN vs RHP
wRC+102 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%36.3 (avg)
Miles Mikolas R
xERA2.65 (elite)K%10.6 (poor)HH%37.9 (avg)Barrel%3.5 (elite)ERA2.55IP/gs17.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs76BB%1.5
PHI vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-186-1.5 (-110)O8.5 (+100)WSN+156+1.5 (-102)U8.0 (-102)
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ WSNW5.08653222
Jun 18vs NYML5.09767123
Jun 13@ MILW4.28536233
Jun 7vs CHWW4.19846455
Jun 2vs SDPW5.09584022
Miles Mikolas · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs PHIL3.1*6015002
Jun 19@ TBRL6.0*8529155
Jun 14vs SEAW7.0*8333000
Jun 8@ SFGW4.2*5423000
Jun 2vs MIAL6.0*9246266
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.46.875.05.01.3(3)
at WSN4.19.595.75.31.0(3)
Miles Mikolas
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.05.406.03.02.0(1)
home starts
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 5.18
WSN
xERA 4.56 (below avg)ERA 6.83
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • WSN — Miles Mikolas: 44 days since last start (2026-05-12) — may not be fully stretched out
  • WSN — Miles Mikolas: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-24, 2026-06-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • WSN — Miles Mikolas: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • WSN — Miles Mikolas: recent opponents high-K: NYM 26%, CIN 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
PHI -1.5 (+101)
C. Sanchez is on a historic run (recent ERA 1.29 over 3 starts, all 7.0 IP outings) with a great track record vs WSN specifically (2.67 ERA, 5.0 IP/gs). PHI offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 146 in L12), giving a strong compound edge. Cavalli is improving recently (3.94 ERA in last 3) but his xERA 6.66 is poor and PHI historically handles him. The +101 line for PHI -1.5 is exceptional value — getting plus money on a heavy favorite's run line, driven by the Sanchez edge and dominant PHI offense. Both bullpens are average-to-below which doesn't hurt this spread play (Sanchez eats 7 innings anyway). PHI 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts; WSN just 2-3 at home in Cavalli's last 5.
C. Sanchez Ks o6.5 (+102)
Sanchez is in elite form (recent ERA 1.29, averaging 9.0 K/start in last 3); his xERA is 3.16 with a 24.0 K%; WSN vs LHP has a 25.0 K% — one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball, which is BETTER than the high-K TOR/MIL teams he just dominated; Sanchez has 6.5 K/gs historical vs WSN; he's averaging 6.2 IP/gs and has been going 7 full innings in each of his last 3 starts with 97-107 pitch counts, so he'll have the innings to accumulate Ks; the adjusted K expectation (~8-9) is well above the 6.5 line; +102 offers genuine value.
CHC @ NYM
7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Javier Assad R
xERA2.29 (elite)K%17.2 (avg)HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.0 (good)ERA1.00IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs87BB%3.1
NYM vs RHP
wRC+95 (avg)K%25.6 (below avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Sean Manaea L
xERA3.46 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%47.7 (poor)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.52IP/gs7.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs88BB%3.3
CHC vs LHP
wRC+212 (elite)K%16.3 (above avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-104-1.5 (+162)O8.5 (-102)NYM-112+1.5 (-190)U8.5 (-110)
Javier Assad · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ NYMW5.08355233
Jun 17vs COLW5.29215022
Jun 12@ SFGW6.08553100
Jun 7vs SFGL6.1*7251100
May 15@ CHWW2.0*3913011
Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs CHCL3.08646234
Jun 18@ PHIW5.19556123
Jun 13vs ATLL6.08464022
Jun 7@ SDPW4.0*6634122
Jun 1@ SEAL5.0*6341111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Javier Assad
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.13.534.04.01.0(2)
at NYM5.05.405.05.02.0(1)
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.09.004.06.02.0(1)
home starts4.55.005.05.01.0(2)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.89 (below avg)ERA 5.72
NYM
xERA 3.73 (good)ERA 4.23
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 14 mph SSE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • NYM — Sean Manaea: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHC — Javier Assad: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07, 2026-05-15 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • CHC — Javier Assad: recent opponents low-K: SFG 19%, COL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • NYM — Sean Manaea: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07, 2026-06-01 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • NYM — Sean Manaea: 2026-06-24: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ARI @ STL
7:45 PM · Busch StadiumRainy, Windy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Mitch Bratt L
xERA?K%?HH%?Barrel%?ERA?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
STL vs LHP
wRC+113 (avg)K%14.0 (elite)HH%43.1 (above avg)
M. Liberatore L
xERA7.51 (poor)K%19.2 (avg)HH%47.4 (poor)Barrel%18.4 (poor)ERA10.45IP/gs3.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs72BB%7.7
ARI vs LHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%14.2 (elite)HH%34.5 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+113+1.5 (-188)O9.0 (-102)STL-130-1.5 (+158)U9.0 (-115)
Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24@ STLW3.05432211
M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 24vs ARIL5.19838266
Jun 18@ KCRL1.24827057
Jun 13@ MINW4.17045144
Jun 6vs CINW4.18444335
May 31vs CHCW5.18543100
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mitch Bratt
IPERAKHBB
vs STL3.03.003.02.02.0(1)
at STL3.03.003.02.02.0(1)
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.05.213.57.01.0(2)
home starts4.85.663.75.02.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.73 (below avg)ERA 4.35
STL
xERA 5.39 (poor)ERA 6.69
Weather · Rainy, Windy
76°F, Heavy Rain, Wind 23 mph SW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • STL — M. Liberatore: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • STL — M. Liberatore: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • STL — M. Liberatore: avg 3.4 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
  • STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.39 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • ARI — Mitch Bratt: last start: 54 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • STL — M. Liberatore: recent opponents low-K: MIN 18%, ARI 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 23 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
ARI @ STL o9.0 (-105)
Strong over case: Zac Gallen is in acute collapse (recent ERA 7.75 vs xERA 5.38 — both signal runs, 9.39 season ERA), McGreevy has a sketchy xERA (4.78) with a bad start recently and a 10.2% barrel rate; STL offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 138, 45.4 HH%); ARI offense is average but STL bullpen is a disaster (xERA 5.64, ERA 6.69 — a disqualifying-level pen meaning runs WILL come after 5); both starters average <6 IP/gs, so both shaky pens will see a lot of action; Gallen has a 6.92 ERA in his only career start at Busch Stadium; combined signals strongly favor runs well exceeding 9 on this total.