AI Picks · 2 Bets · Sep 21
2u Picks
1u Picks
BAL Team Total o3.5 (-120)
TOR @ BAL · 6:36 PM ET
BAL's offense carries a 145 wRC+ over its last 6 games vs RHP, backed up by a strong 120 wRC+ over the last 12 vs RHP, so this is established form against right-handed pitching rather than a one-week blip. Yesavage is returning from a 48-day layoff and his last outing before that was just 2.0 IP on 27 pitches, a workload pattern that points to a short, managed leash tonight, which hands the ball quickly to a TOR bullpen that has thrown 9.0 innings over the last two days (elevated stress) and carries a 4.06 xERA over its last 12. Yesavage's 3.17 xERA over his last 3 starts is real quality, but a hot BAL lineup getting extra at-bats against a taxed TOR relief corps is being underpriced at a team total that sits below the league-average run mark for a single club.
Found at 5:45 AM ET
Zebby Matthews o4.5 Strikeouts (-108)
MIN @ SFG · 9:46 PM ET
San Francisco's lineup has struck out at a 36.4% clip against right-handers over its last 6 games, an extreme spike from its 27.9% mark over the last 12 and one of the highest rates on the board. Matthews carries a 21.7% whiff rate against a 25.4% K% over his last 3 starts, a gap that says his strikeout rate is more likely to climb than fade, and he punched out 8 in 6 innings in his most recent start. His one blowup this window was a short 2.1-inning outing where he still struck out 2, and even a moderate 5-6 inning outing against this whiff-prone Giants lineup clears this number, which the market has priced as a flat coin flip.
Found at 3:00 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
TOR @ 
BAL✓6:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
TOR @ BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Trey Yesavage R
xERA3.17 (good)ERA2.84 (elite)K%25.5 (good)Whiff%29.0 (elite)BB%9.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%27.3 (elite)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs72
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%30.4 (poor)Whiff%25.3 (below)BB%5.1 (poor)HH%38.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+113 (avg)K%28.8 (poor)Whiff%25.2 (below)BB%7.3 (below)HH%36.4 (avg)
Shane Baz R
xERA5.07 (below)ERA5.06 (below)K%17.8 (avg)Whiff%14.9 (below)BB%6.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%45.3 (poor)Barrel%13.2 (below)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+88 (below)K%16.5 (above)Whiff%18.2 (above)BB%11.0 (elite)HH%30.8 (below)
L12
wRC+124 (above)K%18.4 (above)Whiff%19.4 (above)BB%10.7 (above)HH%35.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 4.33 (avg)ERA 3.20 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 2.80 (elite)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-104-1.5 (+164)O7.5 (-105)BAL-110+1.5 (-185)U7.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-106+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (+110)BAL-118-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-115/-110)1.5 (-135/+105)BAL3.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrey Yesavage3.5 (+134 / +110)—Shane Baz3.5 (-146 / +119)17.5 (-106 / -125)
Trey Yesavage · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4 '26@ 
L2.02700100
L2.02700100Jul 29 '26@ 
W6.29743311
W6.29743311Jul 24 '26@ 
L4.09395133
L4.09395133Jul 19 '26vs 
L6.09595233
L6.09595233Jul 11 '26@ 
L1.25911744
L1.25911744Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 15 '26@ 
W4.06827233
W4.06827233Sep 9 '26vs 
W5.210056155
W5.210056155Sep 4 '26vs L6.19564211
L6.19564211Aug 29 '26@ 
W5.28445322
W5.28445322Aug 23 '26vs 
L5.29635333
L5.29635333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trey Yesavage
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.16.18poor4.53.54.5(2)
at BAL5.01.80elite4.02.07.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 5 '26vs L5.29155266
L5.29155266May 30 '26@ L5.09242711
L5.09242711Shane Baz
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.11.17elite3.74.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 7 '26@ L5.28137115
L5.28137115Sep 18 '25vs W5.07442100
W5.07442100May 24 '25vs W5.28244311
W5.28244311home starts5.54.91below4.75.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 9 '26vs W5.210056155
W5.210056155Sep 4 '26vs L6.19564211
L6.19564211Aug 23 '26vs L5.29635333
L5.29635333Trends · TOR
- TOR are 6-4 vs BAL this season (10 games).
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 1-4 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 1-4 in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Trey Yesavage's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 4-6 vs TOR this season (10 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-4 in Shane Baz's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 4.4 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 2.2 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 2-3 to the over in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Shane Baz's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
69°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph NNE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- TOR bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
- BAL bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
- TOR — Trey Yesavage: 48 days since last start (2026-08-04) news ↗
- TOR — Trey Yesavage: last start: 27 pitches over 2.0 IP news ↗
- TOR — Trey Yesavage: high-K outing 2026-07-24 (9 Ks vs avg 4.3 over his last 3)
- BAL — Shane Baz: last start: 68 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
- BAL — Shane Baz: 2026-09-09: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.11 ERA equivalent
- TREND: BAL — was shut out 3-0 last time out (2026-09-20)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
BAL Team Total o3.5 (-120)
BAL's offense carries a 145 wRC+ over its last 6 games vs RHP, backed up by a strong 120 wRC+ over the last 12 vs RHP, so this is established form against right-handed pitching rather than a one-week blip. Yesavage is returning from a 48-day layoff and his last outing before that was just 2.0 IP on 27 pitches, a workload pattern that points to a short, managed leash tonight, which hands the ball quickly to a TOR bullpen that has thrown 9.0 innings over the last two days (elevated stress) and carries a 4.06 xERA over its last 12. Yesavage's 3.17 xERA over his last 3 starts is real quality, but a hot BAL lineup getting extra at-bats against a taxed TOR relief corps is being underpriced at a team total that sits below the league-average run mark for a single club.
WSN @ 
DET6:40 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
WSN @ DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
DJ Herz L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
DET vs LHP
L6
wRC+193 (elite)K%26.4 (below)Whiff%23.7 (avg)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+168 (elite)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%20.5 (above)BB%10.0 (above)HH%38.0 (avg)
River Ryan R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%18.8 (above)Whiff%24.5 (avg)BB%7.5 (below)HH%38.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%24.8 (avg)BB%8.5 (avg)HH%42.7 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.94 (below)ERA 5.15 (below)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 3.17 (good)ERA 2.40 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+115+1.5 (-180)O8.5 (-112)DET-134-1.5 (+153)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+114+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-110)DET-130-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (-140/+112)1.5 (-145/+114)DET4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDJ Herz3.5 (-130 / +111)11.5 (-141 / +106)River Ryan2.5 (-107 / -115)—
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · DET
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
60°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph NNE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- WSN — DJ Herz: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- DET — River Ryan: first start of the season — no stats available yet
AI Analysis
Herz and Ryan are both making their first starts of the season with no track record on the card, which rules out a strikeout or outs prop for either pitcher. Detroit's offense has been outstanding against lefties over both its last 6 and last 12 games, but with the opposing starter a complete unknown there is too much uncertainty in what he allows to price the game total, either team total, or the side with confidence.
MIN @ 
SFG✓9:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
MIN @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Zebby Matthews R
xERA3.60 (good)ERA6.08 (poor)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%21.7 (avg)BB%12.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%47.1 (poor)Barrel%11.8 (below)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs80
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+90 (below)K%36.4 (poor)Whiff%32.3 (poor)BB%8.5 (avg)HH%32.8 (below)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%27.9 (below)Whiff%26.2 (below)BB%8.4 (avg)HH%34.5 (below)
Blade Tidwell R
xERA6.02 (poor)ERA4.60 (below)K%16.2 (below)Whiff%22.2 (avg)BB%11.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%42.2 (below)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs89
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%27.1 (below)Whiff%33.5 (poor)BB%3.4 (poor)HH%28.8 (poor)
L12
wRC+96 (avg)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%27.5 (below)BB%6.0 (poor)HH%35.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 4.84 (below)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 4.06 (avg)ERA 3.04 (good)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN-120-1.5 (+140)O8.5 (+100)SFG+104+1.5 (-162)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIN-120-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-128)SFG-102+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN4.5 (+114/-135)2.5 (+120/-154)SFG3.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZebby Matthews4.5 (-108 / -109)15.5 (-117 / -108)Blade Tidwell3.5 (-157 / +124)15.5 (+121 / -158)
Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 16 '26vs 
W6.09782200
W6.09782200Sep 9 '26@ L2.15822455
L2.15822455Sep 4 '26@ L5.08444144
L5.08444144Aug 30 '26vs W8.110355011
W8.110355011Aug 24 '26@ W7.010576111
W7.010576111Blade Tidwell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 15 '26@ 
W6.29543122
W6.29543122Sep 9 '26vs W4.07825245
W4.07825245Sep 3 '26@ 
L5.09552522
L5.09552522Aug 28 '26vs 
L5.010047166
L5.010047166Aug 22 '26@ L5.29373200
L5.29373200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Blade Tidwell
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN—
home starts4.410.99poor2.35.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 9 '26vs W4.07825245
W4.07825245Aug 28 '26vs L5.010047166
L5.010047166Aug 16 '26vs 
L4.16313566
L4.16313566Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 4.4 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.0 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 3-2 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-1 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-3 in Blade Tidwell's last 4 home starts.
- SFG average 5.4 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 5.8 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 2-3 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 3-0 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
59°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph W
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- MIN bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-09-09: 5 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 21); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.60 ERA equivalent
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: 2026-09-09: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.25 ERA equivalent
Zebby Matthews o4.5 Strikeouts (-108)
San Francisco's lineup has struck out at a 36.4% clip against right-handers over its last 6 games, an extreme spike from its 27.9% mark over the last 12 and one of the highest rates on the board. Matthews carries a 21.7% whiff rate against a 25.4% K% over his last 3 starts, a gap that says his strikeout rate is more likely to climb than fade, and he punched out 8 in 6 innings in his most recent start. His one blowup this window was a short 2.1-inning outing where he still struck out 2, and even a moderate 5-6 inning outing against this whiff-prone Giants lineup clears this number, which the market has priced as a flat coin flip.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.