MLB Game Overviews

Monday, September 7, 2026

Updated 12:29 UTC · Odds Updated 09:01 UTC

AI Picks · 6 Bets · Sep 7
Joey Cantillo u5.5 Ks (+112)
CLE @ BAL · 1:36 PM ET
Cantillo carries a 16.0% K rate and 21.3% Whiff rate over his last 3 starts with strikeout totals of 5, 1 and 6, and his 17.3% walk rate over that span burns pitches without producing outs. Baltimore's bats have missed almost nothing lately — 13.3% Whiff over their last 6 vs LHP, with the 22.4% K rate over the same window sitting well above what that contact profile supports, so the strikeouts should come harder than the raw number suggests. His own outs line of 15.5 is priced toward the under, meaning roughly five innings and about 20 batters faced. Six strikeouts from that combination is an outing he has managed once in three tries, and the market is asking him to repeat it more than half the time.
Found at 5:06 AM ET
Brayan Bello u14.5 Outs (+103)
LAA @ BOS · 1:36 PM ET
Bello has not started a game since June 4 and has been working out of the bullpen as recently as September 2 and August 29, so he arrives with a reliever's build-up and 9.1 total innings across three appearances. The stuff behind the assignment is a 5.78 xERA, a 6.4% K rate and a 10.6% walk rate over that window, which is a profile that runs up pitch counts and hands out baserunners rather than working quick innings. The Angels hit the ball hard at 40.3% HH over their last 6 vs RHP even while scuffling at 84 wRC+, and Boston's pen is rested enough to take the ball early. Asking five full innings from a spot starter in this shape is more than the -137 on the over implies.
Found at 5:06 AM ET
Robert Gasser u4.5 Ks (-115)
CHC @ MIL · 2:11 PM ET
Gasser has averaged 4.4 IP over his last 3 starts and his outs line sits at 15.5 with the under juiced to -235, so the market itself expects barely five innings of work. The Cubs are at 14.9% K over their last 6 vs LHP and 18.8% over their last 12, a contact lineup that already saw him six days ago and took him out after 4.1 innings and 76 pitches with 4 strikeouts. His 22.6% K rate over his last 3 is respectable, but a 12.9% walk rate over the same window shortens the outing further and the strikeouts have to fit inside about 18 batters faced. Pricing this near even money overrates how much a short-leash lefty can miss bats against a lineup that puts the ball in play.
Found at 5:06 AM ET
ARI Team Total u4.5 (-115)
ARI @ KCR · 2:11 PM ET
Arizona's bats have been dormant against left-handed pitching: 63 wRC+ over their last 6 and 58 over their last 12 vs LHP, with a 23.5% K rate in both windows, so this is settled form rather than a short slump. Noah Cameron carries a 2.99 xERA over his last 3 starts with a 28.9% Whiff rate, and he has allowed 0, 2 and 4 earned runs in those outings while averaging 5.1 innings. The Diamondbacks have averaged 2.3 runs per road game and scored 2.6 per game over their last five behind this starter. Their 39.3% HH over the last 6 says the contact is loud enough to matter, but a lineup producing at 58-63 wRC+ against lefties reaching five runs is not the coin flip this price makes it.
Found at 5:06 AM ET
Troy Melton u4.5 Ks (+125)
MIN @ DET · 3:11 PM ET
Melton has struck out 3, 4 and 4 in his last 3 starts on a 14.1% K rate with an 18.9% Whiff rate over that window, and he draws the lineup least likely to help him: Minnesota is at 14.6% K over their last 6 vs RHP and 15.2% over their last 12, one of the lowest contact-avoidance profiles on the board. His outs line of 17.5 gives him close to six innings, so length is not what keeps this down — the bats-in-play rate is. Minnesota hit him for 7 runs in 5.1 innings six days ago and put the ball in play doing it. Priced at plus money on both sides, the market is treating this as a coin flip when a low-strikeout arm against a contact lineup projects nearer three punchouts than five.
Found at 5:06 AM ET
Dylan Cease u18.5 Outs (+160)
TOR @ ATH · 10:06 PM ET
Cease has recorded 20, 18 and 18 outs in his last 3 starts, clearing 18.5 exactly once and needing 111 pitches to do it. He is a high-effort strikeout arm at 29.0% K over that window, and the Athletics are the lineup that lengthens counts on him — 25.6% K and 25.7% Whiff over their last 6 vs RHP with a 140 wRC+ over that same span, so swings and misses come at the cost of pitches. Even the excellent 0.99 ERA across those three starts came with him handed to the bullpen at the end of the sixth twice. A price of +160 pays as though a seventh inning is a coin flip when his own recent workload says it happens closer to a third of the time.
Found at 5:06 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
ATL @ PHI
1:05 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Grant Holmes R
xERA3.69 (good)ERA1.93 (elite)K%13.0 (below)Whiff%28.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs68BB%7.4 (avg)
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+23 (poor)K%17.4 (above)BB%7.0 (below)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%25.3 (poor)
L12
wRC+52 (poor)K%21.3 (avg)BB%9.5 (above)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%28.7 (poor)
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA3.13 (good)ERA2.33 (elite)K%31.6 (elite)Whiff%29.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%47.8 (poor)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs104BB%6.6 (good)
ATL vs LHP
L6
wRC+25 (poor)K%22.4 (avg)BB%6.1 (poor)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%22.9 (poor)
L12
wRC+62 (poor)K%17.8 (above)BB%7.8 (below)Whiff%20.1 (above)HH%30.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 2.38 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
PHI
xERA 3.41 (good)ERA 3.62 (good)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+146+1.5 (-149)O8.0 (-110)PHI-169-1.5 (+130)U8.0 (-107)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+160+0.5 (+102)O4.5 (-102)PHI-200-0.5 (-132)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (+102/-125)1.5 (-120/-110)PHI4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGrant Holmes3.5 (+106 / -132)14.5 (-130 / -102)Jesus Luzardo7.5 (+124 / -150)18.5 (+115 / -149)
Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ WSNW3.02610000
Aug 28 '26vs COLW5.08438133
Aug 20 '26@ CHWW6.09431300
Aug 15 '26vs ARIL3.26536366
Aug 9 '26@ NYYW6.07723200
Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ ARIW6.29966111
Aug 26 '26@ SEAW7.010491300
Aug 21 '26vs STLW5.211095124
Aug 15 '26@ MINW6.210997211
Aug 9 '26vs TORW7.0100124122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI4.73.17good4.74.72.7(3)
at PHI4.24.29avg4.04.01.0(1)
2 this season, 1 last season · last met 136 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 24 '26vs PHIW6.08947333
Apr 19 '26@ PHIW4.28144122
Apr 9 '25vs PHIL4.010463400
Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.71.57elite6.75.01.7(3)
none this season — 3 from last season · last met 372 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '25vs ATLL6.210472100
Jun 28 '25@ ATLL5.09777322
Apr 10 '25@ ATLL6.09866111
home starts6.71.78elite9.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs STLW5.211095124
Aug 9 '26vs TORW7.0100124122
Aug 4 '26vs WSNW8.09874200
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph NNW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • ATL — Grant Holmes: Whiff% 28.3 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 13.0 shows
  • ATL — Grant Holmes: last start: 26 pitches over 3.0 IP
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
AI Analysis
Both lineups are in deep ruts against today's hands — Atlanta at 21 wRC+ over their last 6 vs LHP and Philadelphia at 27 vs RHP — but the longer 12-game windows (84 and 63) say the correction is coming, and with the total already down at 8.0 there is no room left in the number. Jesus Luzardo's strikeout line of 7.5 asks for the top end of what he has done (9, 9 and 6 over his last 3) and his outs number at 18.5 matches the 6.4 innings he has been going, so both are fairly set. Grant Holmes went just 26 pitches over 3 innings last time and his 3.5 strikeout line already reflects totals of 3, 3 and 1, with his 28.3% Whiff over that span arguing the number could climb rather than fall.
NYM @ MIA
1:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jonah Tong R
xERA3.69 (good)ERA3.60 (good)K%14.9 (below)Whiff%23.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%30.3 (good)Barrel%12.1 (below)IP/gs10.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs62BB%14.9 (poor)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%19.4 (above)BB%11.2 (elite)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%40.7 (above)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%21.5 (avg)BB%10.9 (above)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
Eury Perez R
xERA7.59 (poor)ERA8.53 (poor)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%30.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%17.5 (poor)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%16.1 (poor)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+123 (above)K%18.6 (above)BB%8.5 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%45.2 (elite)
L12
wRC+96 (avg)K%21.5 (avg)BB%7.5 (below)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%41.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 4.17 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
MIA
xERA 3.87 (avg)ERA 4.78 (below)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+100-1.5 (+158)O8.0 (-106)MIA-112-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+105+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-102)MIA-124-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-135/+105)MIA3.5 (-128/+105)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJonah Tong4.5 (-113 / -108)14.5 (-137 / +103)Eury Perez5.5 (-113 / +101)16.5 (-122 / -109)
Jonah Tong · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 2 '26@ SEAL3.1*8345245
May 27 '26vs CINW3.2*7613401
May 22 '26@ MIAL3.0*2820100
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ KCRW4.210239366
Aug 28 '26@ WSNL3.07452455
Aug 22 '26vs WSNW5.010043312
Aug 16 '26@ CINW6.010052500
Aug 11 '26vs PITW7.010073200
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jonah Tong
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.01.80elite6.06.00.0(1)
at MIA
last season · last met 374 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '25vs MIAW5.09766014
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.72.62elite7.32.71.7(3)
2 this season, 1 last season · last met 39 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30 '26@ NYML6.09763212
May 22 '26vs NYMW6.18652011
Sep 27 '25vs NYML5.1100113333
home starts6.31.89elite4.34.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs WSNW5.010043312
Aug 11 '26vs PITW7.010073200
Jul 25 '26vs SDPL7.010427133
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
  • NYM — Jonah Tong: Whiff% 23.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 14.9 shows
  • MIA — Eury Perez: Whiff% 30.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 19.4 shows
  • NYM bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
  • MIA bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
  • NYM — Jonah Tong: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-02, 2026-05-27
  • MIA — Eury Perez: last start: 102 pitches over 4.2 IP
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
AI Analysis
Miami at 130 wRC+ over their last 6 vs RHP against Jonah Tong's 14.9% walk rate is the live half of this game, but the Marlins' team total is already shaded to -128 and the moneyline is a coin flip, leaving nothing to take. Tong has only 10 innings across three appearances to judge, so his 4.5 strikeout line and 14.5 outs line are both guesses at a workload nobody has established. Eury Perez's 5.5 strikeout line is supported by a 30.6% Whiff rate over his last 3 but undercut by an 8.53 ERA and 4.2 innings per start, and his 16.5 outs line is above the depth he has been going without enough margin to bet the under at this price.
CLE @ BAL
1:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Joey Cantillo L
xERA4.46 (avg)ERA3.94 (avg)K%16.0 (below)Whiff%21.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%40.8 (below)Barrel%4.1 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs94BB%17.3 (poor)
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+56 (poor)K%34.0 (poor)BB%4.1 (poor)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%42.4 (above)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%29.1 (poor)BB%8.2 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)HH%40.2 (above)
Trevor Rogers L
xERA2.39 (elite)ERA5.30 (poor)K%32.4 (elite)Whiff%24.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%27.1 (elite)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs94BB%2.7 (elite)
CLE vs LHP
L6
wRC+56 (poor)K%20.3 (avg)BB%6.8 (below)Whiff%17.0 (elite)HH%30.8 (below)
L12
wRC+74 (poor)K%20.1 (avg)BB%9.0 (avg)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%31.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.64 (elite)ERA 2.70 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.96 (elite)ERA 2.59 (elite)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+109-1.5 (+172)O8.5 (+100)BAL-120-1.5 (+163)U8.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-106)BAL-128-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE3.5 (-132/+105)1.5 (-145/+114)BAL4.5 (+114/+112)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJoey Cantillo5.5 (-128 / +112)15.5 (+123 / -163)Trevor Rogers4.5 (-136 / +111)17.5 (-138 / +104)
Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs TORL5.110269249
Aug 26 '26@ LAAW6.09212723
Aug 21 '26@ COLW4.28954411
Aug 15 '26vs SDPW6.08771311
Aug 9 '26@ CHWL1.03133011
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ COLL6.294116022
Aug 27 '26@ STLL5.08677166
Aug 21 '26vs TBRW7.010366133
Aug 16 '26@ TBRW6.09867122
Aug 10 '26@ MINL4.07944222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.63.91avg5.53.53.5(2)
at BAL
1 this season, 1 last season · last met 141 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 19 '26vs BALW4.28965334
Jul 22 '25vs BALW5.09552411
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.09.00poor5.06.02.0(1)
this season · last met 141 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 19 '26@ CLEL5.09556256
home starts6.73.15good7.05.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs TBRW7.010366133
Aug 5 '26vs LAAW6.09393022
Jul 24 '26vs ATLL7.08866022
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph N
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • CLE offense: K% 20.3 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 17.0 supports
  • BAL offense: K% 34.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 22.8 supports
  • BAL bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
  • CLE — Joey Cantillo: last start: 102 pitches over 5.1 IP
  • CLE — Joey Cantillo: 2026-09-02: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.57 ERA equivalent
  • BAL — Trevor Rogers: 2026-08-27: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.38 ERA equivalent
Joey Cantillo u5.5 Ks (+112)
Cantillo carries a 16.0% K rate and 21.3% Whiff rate over his last 3 starts with strikeout totals of 5, 1 and 6, and his 17.3% walk rate over that span burns pitches without producing outs. Baltimore's bats have missed almost nothing lately — 13.3% Whiff over their last 6 vs LHP, with the 22.4% K rate over the same window sitting well above what that contact profile supports, so the strikeouts should come harder than the raw number suggests. His own outs line of 15.5 is priced toward the under, meaning roughly five innings and about 20 batters faced. Six strikeouts from that combination is an outing he has managed once in three tries, and the market is asking him to repeat it more than half the time.
LAA @ BOS
1:35 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
G. Rodriguez R
xERA2.64 (elite)ERA2.41 (elite)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%23.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%3.7 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs98BB%6.5 (good)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)BB%8.2 (avg)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%34.6 (below)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%22.1 (avg)BB%8.8 (avg)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%35.6 (avg)
Brayan Bello R
xERA5.78 (poor)ERA8.68 (poor)K%6.4 (poor)Whiff%18.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.4 (good)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs9.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs68BB%10.6 (below)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+80 (below)K%27.8 (below)BB%4.4 (poor)Whiff%26.3 (below)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%28.0 (poor)BB%6.5 (below)Whiff%27.2 (below)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 6.19 (poor)2d stress Fresh (3.0 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 3.80 (avg)ERA 6.33 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+149+1.5 (-144)O8.5 (-112)BOS-168-1.5 (+130)U8.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+130+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-118)BOS-164-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (-115/-105)1.5 (-130/+100)BOS4.5 (-111/-105)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UG. Rodriguez4.5 (-110 / -105)15.5 (+101 / -133)Brayan Bello4.5 (-106 / -120)14.5 (-137 / +103)
G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs NYYL6.010277244
Aug 26 '26vs CLEL5.29247111
Aug 20 '26@ HOUW7.09965202
Aug 14 '26vs KCRL4.08953233
Aug 9 '26@ MIAL4.08384434
Brayan Bello · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs SEAL3.0*6907244
Aug 29 '26@ NYYL4.1*9425144
Aug 24 '26@ MIAW2.0*4212211
Aug 17 '26vs ARIW4.2*7633111
Aug 9 '26vs ATHL4.0*5143011
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brayan Bello
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.04.50below4.06.02.0(1)
last season · last met 461 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 3 '25vs LAAL6.010346233
home starts
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph NW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
  • BOS — Brayan Bello: Whiff% 18.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 6.4 shows
  • LAA bullpen fresh (3.0 IP over 2g)
  • LAA — G. Rodriguez: last start: 102 pitches over 6.0 IP
  • BOS — Brayan Bello: 95 days since last start (2026-06-04) news ↗
  • BOS — Brayan Bello: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-02, 2026-08-29
  • BOS — Brayan Bello: last start: 108 pitches over 5.0 IP
  • TREND: LAA — lost the last game 1-0 (2026-09-06)
Brayan Bello u14.5 Outs (+103)
Bello has not started a game since June 4 and has been working out of the bullpen as recently as September 2 and August 29, so he arrives with a reliever's build-up and 9.1 total innings across three appearances. The stuff behind the assignment is a 5.78 xERA, a 6.4% K rate and a 10.6% walk rate over that window, which is a profile that runs up pitch counts and hands out baserunners rather than working quick innings. The Angels hit the ball hard at 40.3% HH over their last 6 vs RHP even while scuffling at 84 wRC+, and Boston's pen is rested enough to take the ball early. Asking five full innings from a spot starter in this shape is more than the -137 on the over implies.
ARI @ KCR
2:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jose Cabrera R
xERA2.93 (elite)ERA5.06 (below)K%15.6 (below)Whiff%10.8 (poor)
More Stats
HH%24.2 (elite)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs56BB%6.7 (good)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+129 (above)K%12.5 (elite)BB%8.7 (avg)Whiff%19.4 (above)HH%42.0 (above)
L12
wRC+132 (elite)K%16.0 (above)BB%9.1 (avg)Whiff%19.4 (above)HH%41.5 (above)
Noah Cameron L
xERA2.99 (elite)ERA3.38 (good)K%17.9 (avg)Whiff%28.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs84BB%9.0 (avg)
ARI vs LHP
L6
wRC+65 (poor)K%27.1 (below)BB%8.3 (avg)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%35.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+55 (poor)K%24.5 (below)BB%7.5 (below)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%41.7 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.40 (good)ERA 2.59 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 2.85 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-102-1.5 (+152)O9.5 (+100)KCR-115+1.5 (-184)U9.0 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UARI4.5 (-115/-115)KCR4.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJose CabreraNoah Cameron3.5 (-150 / +120)17.5 (-103 / -120)
Jose Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs PHIW2.0*2411000
Aug 27 '26@ SFGL4.17043122
Jul 8 '26@ SDPL4.17424244
Jul 3 '26vs MILL3.16336333
Jun 27 '26@ TBRL5.08047244
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs MIAL5.08675144
Aug 27 '26@ TORW6.08136222
Aug 21 '26vs DETW5.08522300
Aug 16 '26@ LAAW9.011581100
Aug 10 '26@ LADL5.210126244
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI
home starts6.02.50elite6.03.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs MIAL5.08675144
Aug 21 '26vs DETW5.08522300
Aug 5 '26vs MINW8.010693111
Weather · Hot
90°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: Whiff% 28.9 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 17.9 shows
  • ARI — Jose Cabrera: 11 days since last start (2026-08-27) news ↗
  • ARI — Jose Cabrera: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-02
  • ARI — Jose Cabrera: last start: 70 pitches over 4.1 IP
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: 2026-09-02: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.50 ERA equivalent
ARI Team Total u4.5 (-115)
Arizona's bats have been dormant against left-handed pitching: 63 wRC+ over their last 6 and 58 over their last 12 vs LHP, with a 23.5% K rate in both windows, so this is settled form rather than a short slump. Noah Cameron carries a 2.99 xERA over his last 3 starts with a 28.9% Whiff rate, and he has allowed 0, 2 and 4 earned runs in those outings while averaging 5.1 innings. The Diamondbacks have averaged 2.3 runs per road game and scored 2.6 per game over their last five behind this starter. Their 39.3% HH over the last 6 says the contact is loud enough to matter, but a lineup producing at 58-63 wRC+ against lefties reaching five runs is not the coin flip this price makes it.
CHC @ MIL
2:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Matthew Boyd L
xERA3.71 (good)ERA4.15 (avg)K%15.9 (below)Whiff%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs92BB%7.2 (avg)
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+103 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)BB%8.1 (avg)Whiff%16.3 (elite)HH%35.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%16.0 (above)BB%7.7 (below)Whiff%15.6 (elite)HH%36.0 (avg)
Robert Gasser L
xERA3.49 (good)ERA4.73 (below)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%2.5 (elite)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs78BB%12.9 (below)
CHC vs LHP
L6
wRC+23 (poor)K%16.3 (above)BB%10.2 (above)Whiff%13.8 (elite)HH%37.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+129 (above)K%18.4 (above)BB%9.9 (above)Whiff%17.7 (elite)HH%38.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 5.04 (below)ERA 6.42 (poor)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
MIL
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.94 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC+106-1.5 (+162)O8.5 (+100)MIL-124-1.5 (+163)U8.5 (-111)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-105+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (-110)MIL-116-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC4.5 (+114/+102)1.5 (-160/+124)MIL4.5 (+110/+112)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMatthew Boyd4.5 (-109 / -113)17.5 (-132 / -101)Robert Gasser4.5 (+100 / -115)15.5 (+174 / -235)
Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs MILL5.19737133
Aug 26 '26@ ARIL6.09453211
Aug 21 '26@ SEAL6.08636245
Aug 15 '26vs STLL5.19725377
Aug 9 '26@ KCRW7.09835322
Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ CHCW4.17643223
Aug 26 '26@ NYMW5.1*8266211
Aug 20 '26vs SEAW3.27744444
Aug 14 '26@ LADL6.110278133
Aug 8 '26vs MINW4.29437233
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.17.11poor2.76.33.0(3)
at MIL5.09.00poor2.06.05.0(1)
1 this season, 2 last season · last met 6 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs MILL5.19737133
Aug 19 '25vs MILW5.19036344
Jul 28 '25@ MILL5.09026555
Robert Gasser
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.14.39avg4.03.02.0(1)
this season · last met 6 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ CHCW4.17643223
home starts4.56.04poor3.75.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20 '26vs SEAW3.27744444
Aug 8 '26vs MINW4.29437233
Jul 25 '26vs COLW6.07745022
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph ESE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 9
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: Whiff% 23.1 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 15.9 shows
  • MIL offense: K% 22.1 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 16.3 supports
  • CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.04 over its last 12
  • CHC bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
  • MIL bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
  • MIL — Robert Gasser: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-26
  • MIL — Robert Gasser: last start: 76 pitches over 4.1 IP
  • MIL — Robert Gasser: 2026-08-20: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.41 ERA equivalent
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
Robert Gasser u4.5 Ks (-115)
Gasser has averaged 4.4 IP over his last 3 starts and his outs line sits at 15.5 with the under juiced to -235, so the market itself expects barely five innings of work. The Cubs are at 14.9% K over their last 6 vs LHP and 18.8% over their last 12, a contact lineup that already saw him six days ago and took him out after 4.1 innings and 76 pitches with 4 strikeouts. His 22.6% K rate over his last 3 is respectable, but a 12.9% walk rate over the same window shortens the outing further and the strikeouts have to fit inside about 18 batters faced. Pricing this near even money overrates how much a short-leash lefty can miss bats against a lineup that puts the ball in play.
MIN @ DET
3:10 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Connor Prielipp L
xERA3.05 (good)ERA4.96 (below)K%25.0 (good)Whiff%27.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%47.8 (poor)Barrel%2.2 (elite)IP/gs8.2 IP/gsH/gs8.5PC/gs82BB%5.9 (good)
DET vs LHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%23.9 (avg)BB%7.1 (below)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%26.4 (below)BB%6.7 (below)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%36.9 (avg)
Troy Melton R
xERA5.71 (poor)ERA5.00 (below)K%14.1 (below)Whiff%18.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.3 (below)Barrel%11.5 (below)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs91BB%5.1 (good)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%19.0 (above)BB%11.7 (elite)Whiff%20.6 (above)HH%42.5 (above)
L12
wRC+129 (above)K%17.0 (above)BB%9.8 (above)Whiff%19.7 (above)HH%40.6 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 5.28 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 3.69 (good)ERA 5.15 (below)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIN+110+1.5 (-200)O8.5 (-104)DET-126-1.5 (+169)U8.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UMIN3.5 (-140/+110)DET4.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UConnor PrielippTroy Melton4.5 (+134 / +125)17.5 (-130 / +100)
Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs DETW5.0*7353100
Aug 26 '26@ ATHL5.17856133
Aug 21 '26@ SDPL6.09678266
Aug 15 '26vs PHIL5.09468488
Aug 9 '26@ MILL5.09675233
Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ MINL5.19646157
Aug 26 '26vs TBRL7.08447033
Aug 21 '26@ KCRL5.29437333
Aug 15 '26vs CHWL4.18748113
Aug 9 '26@ SFGW6.09254101
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.08.02poor4.57.00.5(2)
all 2 this season · last met 6 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ MINL5.19646157
Jun 9 '26vs MINW5.08858044
home starts6.01.99elite4.36.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs TBRL7.08447033
Aug 15 '26vs CHWL4.18748113
Jul 28 '26vs BALW7.09253200
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ENE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • MIN — Connor Prielipp: 12 days since last start (2026-08-26) news ↗
  • MIN — Connor Prielipp: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-01
  • MIN — Connor Prielipp: last start: 78 pitches over 5.1 IP
  • DET — Troy Melton: recent opponents low-K: KCR 12%, TBR 18%, MIN 19%
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
Troy Melton u4.5 Ks (+125)
Melton has struck out 3, 4 and 4 in his last 3 starts on a 14.1% K rate with an 18.9% Whiff rate over that window, and he draws the lineup least likely to help him: Minnesota is at 14.6% K over their last 6 vs RHP and 15.2% over their last 12, one of the lowest contact-avoidance profiles on the board. His outs line of 17.5 gives him close to six innings, so length is not what keeps this down — the bats-in-play rate is. Minnesota hit him for 7 runs in 5.1 innings six days ago and put the ball in play doing it. Priced at plus money on both sides, the market is treating this as a coin flip when a low-strikeout arm against a contact lineup projects nearer three punchouts than five.
WSN @ SDP
5:10 PM · Petco ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jake Irvin R
xERA4.55 (below)ERA4.40 (avg)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%51.2 (poor)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%13.4 (poor)
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+104 (avg)K%21.6 (avg)BB%6.9 (below)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%43.9 (above)
L12
wRC+76 (poor)K%21.7 (avg)BB%9.0 (avg)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%42.1 (above)
Nick Pivetta R
xERA0.69 (elite)ERA1.38 (elite)K%42.5 (elite)Whiff%24.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.2 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs1.7PC/gs71BB%6.4 (good)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+96 (avg)K%24.2 (below)BB%11.1 (elite)Whiff%27.7 (below)HH%41.8 (above)
L12
wRC+98 (avg)K%21.5 (avg)BB%11.1 (elite)Whiff%24.8 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.63 (below)ERA 8.25 (poor)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
SDP
xERA 2.18 (elite)ERA 2.62 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+176+1.5 (-127)O8.5 (+100)SDP-200-1.5 (+110)U8.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+148+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-108)SDP-188-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (+105/-132)1.5 (-125/-105)SDP4.5 (-111/-115)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Irvin4.5 (+119 / -153)16.5 (-110 / -119)Nick Pivetta3.5 (-168 / +131)12.5 (-111 / -119)
Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26vs ATLW4.08655122
Aug 27 '26vs COLW4.19463611
Aug 22 '26@ MIAL6.010446244
Aug 16 '26@ NYML6.09868344
Aug 11 '26vs CHCL3.18844255
Nick Pivetta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 12 '26vs COLW3.04640000
Apr 7 '26@ PITL5.08684122
Apr 1 '26vs SFGW5.08281200
Mar 26 '26vs DETL3.06947366
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Pivetta
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN6.50.69elite7.53.00.5(2)
none this season — 2 from last season · last met 414 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20 '25@ WSNW6.08753111
Jun 25 '25vs WSNW7.090103000
home starts3.74.91below5.32.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 12 '26vs COLW3.04640000
Apr 1 '26vs SFGW5.08281200
Mar 26 '26vs DETL3.06947366
Weather · Hot
95°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 12 mph NW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • SDP bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g)
  • SDP — Nick Pivetta: 148 days since last start (2026-04-12) news ↗
  • SDP — Nick Pivetta: last start: 46 pitches over 3.0 IP
AI Analysis
Jake Irvin is making his first start of the season with no numbers to work from, which takes the side, the total and both of his prop markets off the table. Nick Pivetta has not pitched in 148 days and his last outing was 46 pitches over 3 innings, so the 12.5 outs line is the market's honest read on a pitcher with no build-up, and the strikeout line at 3.5 is already shaded to -168 to match. San Diego at -200 with a bullpen at 9.7 innings of work over two days is not a price worth laying.
STL @ SFG
8:10 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Michael McGreevy R
xERA3.96 (avg)ERA8.22 (poor)K%15.7 (below)Whiff%23.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs88BB%8.6 (avg)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%22.0 (avg)BB%10.4 (above)Whiff%19.4 (above)HH%30.6 (below)
L12
wRC+108 (avg)K%22.5 (avg)BB%11.6 (elite)Whiff%19.5 (above)HH%35.5 (avg)
Logan Webb R
xERA9.07 (poor)ERA13.50 (poor)K%14.8 (below)Whiff%19.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.5 (below)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs77BB%9.8 (avg)
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+154 (elite)K%23.9 (avg)BB%7.4 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%46.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%23.6 (avg)BB%6.6 (below)Whiff%23.4 (avg)HH%43.7 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.47 (avg)ERA 5.59 (poor)2d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 6.19 (poor)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+116+1.5 (-194)O7.5 (-110)SFG-130-1.5 (+162)U7.5 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+122+0.5 (-128)O3.5 (-128)SFG-145-0.5 (-102)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (-106/-120)1.5 (-115/-115)SFG3.5 (-132/+105)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael McGreevy3.5 (+120 / -139)16.5 (+103 / -136)Logan Webb5.5 (+116 / -143)17.5 (-182 / +136)
Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ LADW5.09045244
Aug 26 '26vs BALL5.084310277
Aug 20 '26@ CINW5.19043233
Aug 15 '26@ CHCW6.010265203
Aug 9 '26vs COLW5.210248233
Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 1 '26@ PITL2.06519299
Aug 26 '26vs CINL6.09765122
Aug 21 '26@ BOSL2.27026355
Aug 15 '26vs COLW6.08074011
Aug 9 '26vs DETL8.010024111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG4.511.00poor2.57.52.0(2)
at SFG5.09.00poor2.06.03.0(1)
none this season — 2 from last season · last met 350 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '25@ SFGW5.09026355
Sep 5 '25vs SFGL4.07539166
Logan Webb
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.04.50below5.08.02.0(1)
last season · last met 349 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '25vs STLL6.09758233
home starts6.71.80elite5.04.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs CINL6.09765122
Aug 15 '26vs COLW6.08074011
Aug 9 '26vs DETL8.010024111
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Clear, Wind 13 mph W
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • SFG — Logan Webb: avg 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3
  • STL — Michael McGreevy: Whiff% 23.3 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 15.7 shows
  • STL bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g)
  • SFG — Logan Webb: last start: 65 pitches over 2.0 IP
AI Analysis
Logan Webb's last 3 starts are a genuine mess — 14.12 ERA, 3.6 innings per outing, 9 earned runs on 9 hits in 2 innings last time — but the total is already at 7.5 and San Francisco is only -130, so both markets have priced the wreckage; St. Louis is no cleaner with an 8.22 ERA from Michael McGreevy and a bullpen at 10.0 innings of work over two days. Webb's outs line at 17.5 is far above his recent depth, but the under is priced at +136 against a market that has already moved it there, and his 5.5 strikeout line sits above totals of 2, 6 and 1. McGreevy's 3.5 strikeout line matches his 4, 3 and 4 over his last 3 and his outs line at 16.5 is right at the 5.1 innings he averages.
CIN @ LAD
9:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Chase Burns R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+103 (avg)K%23.1 (avg)BB%10.5 (above)Whiff%25.5 (below)HH%41.3 (above)
L12
wRC+101 (avg)K%20.7 (avg)BB%12.1 (elite)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%34.6 (below)
Emmet Sheehan R
xERA3.89 (avg)ERA8.31 (poor)K%24.2 (good)Whiff%35.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%15.0 (below)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs77BB%6.5 (good)
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+108 (avg)K%24.1 (below)BB%9.0 (avg)Whiff%26.1 (below)HH%50.6 (elite)
L12
wRC+116 (above)K%24.8 (below)BB%8.2 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (avg)HH%42.3 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 3.79 (avg)ERA 5.47 (poor)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 3.59 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+134+1.5 (-171)O8.5 (+100)LAD-155-1.5 (+146)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+104+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-104)LAD-130-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UCIN3.5 (-113/-105)LAD4.5 (+110/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChase Burns4.5 (-101 / -126)11.5 (-127 / -105)Emmet Sheehan
Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26@ CHCW5.210076123
Aug 24 '26@ SFGL3.26459155
Aug 19 '26vs STLW5.010486222
Aug 14 '26vs MIAW7.09384000
Aug 8 '26@ WSNL5.19666355
Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2 '26vs BOSL2.25846155
Jul 26 '26@ NYML5.08753211
Jul 20 '26@ PHIL5.18768166
Jul 12 '26vs ARIL5.110173123
Jul 5 '26vs SDPL4.19653311
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.25.19below10.06.01.0(1)
at LAD
last season · last met 406 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28 '25vs LADL5.291106133
Emmet Sheehan
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN7.00.00elite10.02.01.0(1)
last season · last met 378 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '25vs CINW7.096102100
home starts3.86.32poor5.34.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2 '26vs BOSL2.25846155
Jul 12 '26vs ARIL5.110173123
Jul 5 '26vs SDPL4.19653311
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph W
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
  • CIN — Chase Burns: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • CIN bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
  • LAD bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
  • CIN — Chase Burns: 2026-08-24: 5 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.53 ERA equivalent
  • LAD — Emmet Sheehan: 36 days since last start (2026-08-02) news ↗
  • LAD — Emmet Sheehan: last start: 58 pitches over 2.2 IP
  • LAD — Emmet Sheehan: recent opponents low-K: PHI 17%, NYM 19%
AI Analysis
Chase Burns is making his first start of the season with no track record to price off, which leaves both the side and the total resting on a blank, and his strikeout and outs numbers are unbettable for the same reason. Emmet Sheehan comes back from 36 days off having thrown just 58 pitches over 2.2 innings in his last start, and the card posts no strikeout or outs market on him. With both bullpens at 9.0 innings of work over the past two days, the run environment is unpredictable in a way the 8.5 total already accounts for.
TOR @ ATH
10:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Dylan Cease R
xERA3.11 (good)ERA0.96 (elite)K%29.0 (elite)Whiff%25.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs95BB%8.7 (avg)
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+129 (above)K%25.6 (below)BB%7.5 (below)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%41.4 (above)
L12
wRC+109 (avg)K%24.6 (below)BB%6.8 (below)Whiff%24.7 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Jacob Lopez L
xERA3.08 (good)ERA2.12 (elite)K%31.4 (elite)Whiff%32.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%41.5 (below)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%8.6 (avg)
TOR vs LHP
L6
wRC+136 (elite)K%13.0 (elite)BB%7.2 (below)Whiff%12.7 (elite)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+125 (above)K%12.4 (elite)BB%9.3 (avg)Whiff%14.5 (elite)HH%33.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.42 (good)ERA 3.00 (good)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
ATH
xERA 2.45 (elite)ERA 2.72 (elite)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-196-1.5 (-111)O8.5 (-102)ATH+178+1.5 (+100)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-198-0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-102)ATH+156+0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR4.5 (-122/+105)2.5 (+100/-130)ATH3.5 (+120/-150)1.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDylan Cease7.5 (+116 / -119)18.5 (+159 / +160)Jacob Lopez4.5 (+114 / -141)15.5 (-128 / -104)
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ CLEW6.08344000
Aug 28 '26vs SEAW6.09284111
Aug 22 '26@ NYYW6.211182511
Aug 16 '26vs NYYL6.1104102322
Aug 11 '26vs BOSW5.010475433
Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26@ TEXW6.010276222
Aug 28 '26vs BALL5.010063312
Aug 22 '26@ HOUW6.09193111
Aug 16 '26vs TEXW6.09365222
Aug 10 '26vs TBRL7.09355122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH4.59.89poor8.06.02.5(2)
at ATH4.020.25poor4.09.03.0(1)
1 this season, 1 last season · last met 163 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 28 '26vs ATHW5.190123211
Apr 8 '25@ ATHL4.07849399
Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR3.113.06poor2.55.01.5(2)
none this season — 2 from last season · last met 422 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12 '25vs TORW5.08754222
May 29 '25@ TORL1.24306177
home starts6.02.50elite5.74.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs BALL5.010063312
Aug 16 '26vs TEXW6.09365222
Aug 10 '26vs TBRL7.09355122
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph NNW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
  • ATH — Jacob Lopez: last start: 102 pitches over 6.0 IP
  • TREND: ATH — was shut out 2-0 last time out (2026-09-06)
Dylan Cease u18.5 Outs (+160)
Cease has recorded 20, 18 and 18 outs in his last 3 starts, clearing 18.5 exactly once and needing 111 pitches to do it. He is a high-effort strikeout arm at 29.0% K over that window, and the Athletics are the lineup that lengthens counts on him — 25.6% K and 25.7% Whiff over their last 6 vs RHP with a 140 wRC+ over that same span, so swings and misses come at the cost of pitches. Even the excellent 0.99 ERA across those three starts came with him handed to the bullpen at the end of the sixth twice. A price of +160 pays as though a seventh inning is a coin flip when his own recent workload says it happens closer to a third of the time.