AI Picks · 12 Bets · Jul 27
ARI @ PIT o9.0 (-105)
Mitch Keller is a clear liability: xERA 5.82 (poor), recent ERA 5.50, Barrel% 13%, and a brutal home ERA of 5.40 across 3 home starts. ARI's offense is hot (wRC+ 127 vs RHP) and has a clear path to scoring. Merrill Kelly has a concerning HH% of 52% and while his season ERA looks good, his xERA of 4.13 and recent 4.00 ERA suggest regression. PIT bullpen xERA 5.17 is a disqualifier for ML bets but strengthens the over case — more shaky relief innings = more runs. PIT team trends show 6.4 RS avg at home in Keller's starts, and ARI scores 5.4 avg in Kelly's recent starts. The -105 price on the over at 9.0 is reasonable value given both pen-starter combinations.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
ARI Team Total o4.5 (+105)
ARI wRC+ 127 vs RHP (elite) faces Keller (xERA 5.82, Barrel% 13%, home ERA 5.40) and a PIT bullpen with xERA 5.17. ARI gets positive value at +105 on a 4.5 team total — they should have no trouble reaching this mark given both Keller's overall profile and the shaky relief corps behind him. ARI 1-4 SP away L5 is the only concern, but that's about wins not scoring — their away scoring avg is only 1.6 but that's driven by Kelly's recent weak offense support in specific starts, not ARI's actual lineup quality.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
ARI ML (+100)
ARI has a meaningful pitching and matchup edge. Merrill Kelly's season ERA (2.12) vs xERA (4.13) shows some luck, but his recent 3-start ERA of 4.00 is still solid and he has a strong specific history at PNC Park (1.45 ERA). Keller is a genuinely poor pitcher: xERA 5.82, recent ERA 5.50, barrel% 13%, and home ERA of 5.40 in 3 starts. The PIT bullpen is disqualifying for a PIT side bet (xERA 5.17). ARI's offense is hot (wRC+ 127 vs RHP) while PIT's wRC+ is a cold 94 vs RHP with a 30.3% K rate. Getting ARI at +100 (essentially a pick'em) when the pitching and offensive matchup both clearly favor Arizona is excellent value — the market is pricing this as even despite ARI holding the stronger starter, better bullpen, and better offense.
Found at 12:07 PM ET
Zack Wheeler Ks o7.5 (+110)
Wheeler is elite: K% 45.8%, xERA 1.44, averaging 9.7 K/start over recent 3. MIA has a K% of 23.1% vs RHP — solid strikeout rate. Wheeler vs MIA history: 3gs, 1.42 ERA, 10.0 K/gs average. His recent 3 starts show 14K, 10K, 5K (the 5K was in 7 IP vs NYM who has lower K rates). MIA K% at 23.1% is slightly below CHW's typical K rate but Wheeler's dominance vs this specific opponent (10 K/gs avg) speaks loudly. Adjusted expectation: ~9-10 Ks. The line is 7.5 at +110 — massive value. Wheeler gets a favorable matchup, good run support incentive to stay in longer (PHI bullpen stressed, manager leaves him in), and a historic pattern of dominating this lineup. This is a strong over.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
PHI @ MIA F5 u4.5 (-152)
Wheeler is dominant (xERA 1.44, K% 45.8%, 10 K/gs vs MIA historically) and Tyler Phillips is a limited pitcher (avg 3.4 IP/gs) but MIA bullpen will need to step in early. The F5 under at -152 is too expensive — the K over at +110 is the better play for the same edge.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
Line Warning: Wheeler K Over 7.5 at +110 is the cleaner, better-priced expression of this pitching edge.
TOR @ WSN o10.0 (-104)
This is the strongest over play on the slate. Max Scherzer: ERA 10.80, recent ERA 10.69, avg 3.9 IP/gs, 47 days since last start (may not be stretched out), BB% 12%, and command concerns. Andrew Alvarez: ERA 8.25, xERA 5.45 (poor), recent ERA 6.77, BB% 15%, avg 6.0 IP/gs but short recent outings. WSN bullpen xERA 5.00 (disqualifier for ML but strengthens over case). WSN offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 141). Both starters are among the worst on today's slate. Neither is expected to go deep given their pitch counts and recent struggles. At -104 on the over at 10.0, this is excellent value — the market is surprisingly modest given two of the worst starters in the game.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
WSN Team Total o4.5 (-130)
WSN wRC+ 141 vs RHP (elite, best on the slate) faces Max Scherzer who has a 10.80 ERA, recent ERA 10.69, and hasn't started in 47 days. Even accounting for the 2 ER in 6 IP start that looks decent, his last two starts were disasters (8 ER in 2.1 IP and 2 ER in 2.0 IP). WSN scores 4.2 avg in Alvarez's recent starts but that's against TOR's Scherzer — WSN scores here. This team total is a direct expression of the WSN offense vs a compromised Scherzer.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-128)
CHC is an elite offense vs LHP (wRC+ 133) facing Liberatore (xERA 3.56, but recent ERA 5.96) and a STL bullpen (xERA 4.73). Liberatore has a 2.98 ERA in 3 starts vs CHC historically, but his recent form is shaky. CHC K% of only 18.8% means they put the ball in play. CHC averaging 5.5 RS in Peterson's recent starts. However, the -128 price is a bit steep for a team total — it's borderline.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
Line Warning: Consider CHC ML at -110 as a more balanced expression of this edge — CHC offense vs weak STL pitching/bullpen combination.
CHC ML (-110)
David Peterson is a liability on the mound for CHC (xERA 6.29, recent ERA inflated but even adjusted for bad outlier his other starts have 2 ER in 5.2 IP and 4 ER in 4 IP — not reliable). STL's xERA 3.56 Liberatore is shaky recently. The compound edge: CHC elite offense vs LHP (wRC+ 133), CHC facing one of the worst starters (xERA 6.29) in the slate, CHC bullpen (xERA 4.29) is comparable to STL's (xERA 4.73). STL wRC+ only 72 vs LHP (poor). CHC ML at -110 is excellent value — the market should have CHC as a bigger favorite given Peterson's profile. This is clearly mispriced.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
BOS @ ATH o9.5 (-109)
Jack Perkins is in acute distress: ERA 10.03, recent ERA 8.86 (adjusting for the bad start that skews it, even his other starts show 5-6 ER in 10 IP), home ERA 9.55 in 3 starts. ATH bullpen is a disaster at xERA 6.14. BOS offense is solid at wRC+ 106. Tolle's matchup history vs ATH shows 9.00 ERA in 2.0 IP, and despite his elite xERA, his recent 3.38 ERA and that rough prior outing here gives ATH offense a path to runs. Park APF 108 is hitter-friendly. Both bullpens or at least ATH's ensures runs late. The only hesitation is Tolle's elite xERA 1.80, but his recent struggles (6 ER in one start) and his matchup history at this park argue for runs on the BOS side too.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
BOS -1.5 (-106)
Jack Perkins has been awful: ERA 10.03, xERA 4.60, recent ERA 8.86 (even accounting for the 7-ER outlier, his other two starts yielded 2 ER and 4 ER), BB% 12%, and home ERA of 9.55 in 3 starts. ATH bullpen xERA is 6.14 — a disqualifying factor for ATH side bets but irrelevant for BOS spread. BOS bullpen is elite (xERA 3.00, ERA 1.63) and will hold leads. Tolle is struggling recently (3.38 recent ERA) but still has an elite xERA of 1.80 and ATH's offense vs LHP is weak (wRC+ 86). BOS is 9-1 away L10. -1.5 at -106 is excellent pricing for this matchup quality.
Found at 12:07 PM ET
MIL @ SFG o8.5 (-105)
Wind blowing out at 21 mph is a significant weather factor at Oracle Park (APF 101 baseline, effectively ~105+ today). Tyler Mahle is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.70, xERA 3.56) and averaging only 4.0 K/start in a 5.4 IP/gs context. Brandon Sproat has been hot recently (recent ERA 1.79) but xERA 5.60 (poor) signals major regression risk — his recent hot streak is not sustainable per his peripherals. Both offenses are above average (MIL wRC+ 118, SFG wRC+ 123). With wind blowing out hard, over 8.5 at -105 is attractive.
Found at 6:55 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
SEA @
TEX2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
SEA @
TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
George Kirby R
xERA3.21 (good)K%26.7 (good)HH%43.4 (below avg)Barrel%9.4 (avg)ERA1.80IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs89BB%2.7
TEX vs RHP
wRC+119 (above avg)K%22.3 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)
Kumar Rocker R
xERA4.24 (avg)K%23.9 (good)HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA5.63IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs84BB%7.5
SEA vs RHP
wRC+63 (poor)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-130-1.5 (+135)O8.0 (-103)TEX+114+1.5 (-154)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-135-0.5 (+104)O4.5 (+116)TEX+112+0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-140)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)TEXO3.5 (+100)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGeorge Kirby5.5 (+107 / -132)18.5 (+128 / +150)Kumar Rocker4.5 (-113 / -109)16.5 (-101 / -102)
George Kirby · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs
W6.08063100
W6.08063100Jul 8@
L6.08678022
L6.08678022Jun 29vs
W8.010077122
W8.010077122Jun 23@
W6.09159212
W6.09159212Jun 17vs
L6.09258033
L6.09258033Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
W6.07561200
W6.07561200Jul 11vs
L5.29168277
L5.29168277Jul 5vs
L4.18545133
L4.18545133Jun 28@
W6.09254100
W6.09254100Jun 22@
W5.0*7695022
W5.0*7695022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
George Kirby
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.41.885.05.31.3(3)
at TEX8.03.384.06.00.0(1)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA4.45.413.75.01.7(3)
home starts5.15.885.34.71.7(3)
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 3-6 vs TEX this season (9 games).
- SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 1.6 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 6-3 vs SEA this season (9 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 4.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 4.192d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 6.462d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- TEX bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-07-11: 7 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Kirby is a strong pitcher with good TEX history (1.88 ERA in 3 starts), but SEA's offense is very cold (wRC+ 63 vs RHP) and TEX offense is hot (wRC+ 119). The SEA ML at -130 is already expensive for a team with such poor offensive output. No compelling angle at proper pricing.
ARI @
PIT✓6:40 PM · PNC ParkHot
ARI @
PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Merrill Kelly R
xERA4.13 (avg)K%18.8 (avg)HH%52.2 (poor)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA2.12IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89BB%9.4
PIT vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%30.3 (poor)HH%44.9 (above avg)
Mitch Keller R
xERA5.82 (poor)K%16.1 (below avg)HH%44.7 (below avg)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA5.14IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs77BB%6.5
ARI vs RHP
wRC+127 (above avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%41.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+100-1.5 (+158)O9.5 (+100)PIT-115+1.5 (-185)U9.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-106+0.5 (-152)O5.5 (+112)PIT-118-0.5 (+116)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)PITO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (+100)U2.5 (-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMerrill Kelly4.5 (+105 / -130)16.5 (-118 / -110)Mitch Keller4.5 (+125 / +132)15.5 (+124 / -162)
Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs
W5.08735122
W5.08735122Jul 17vs
L5.08734213
L5.08734213Jul 9@
W7.09463311
W7.09463311Jul 4vs
W5.09268222
W5.09268222Jun 28@
L6.09338255
L6.09338255Mitch Keller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@
W5.07563200
W5.07563200Jul 9vs
L3.07234233
L3.07234233Jul 3@
L6.08318055
L6.08318055Jun 28vs
W6.07945134
W6.07945134Jun 23vs
L6.09247133
L6.09247133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.21.453.06.01.0(1)
at PIT6.21.453.06.01.0(1)
Mitch Keller
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.03.004.04.02.0(1)
home starts5.05.403.75.31.3(3)
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 1-2 vs PIT this season (3 games).
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 3-2 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 5.4 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 1.6 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-1 vs ARI this season (3 games).
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Mitch Keller's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 5.2 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.4 runs/game in Mitch Keller's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 3.422d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 5.17 (below avg)ERA 4.502d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
90°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT — Mitch Keller: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT — Mitch Keller: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- PIT — Mitch Keller: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — Mitch Keller: 2026-07-09: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ARI @ PIT o9.0 (-105)
Mitch Keller is a clear liability: xERA 5.82 (poor), recent ERA 5.50, Barrel% 13%, and a brutal home ERA of 5.40 across 3 home starts. ARI's offense is hot (wRC+ 127 vs RHP) and has a clear path to scoring. Merrill Kelly has a concerning HH% of 52% and while his season ERA looks good, his xERA of 4.13 and recent 4.00 ERA suggest regression. PIT bullpen xERA 5.17 is a disqualifier for ML bets but strengthens the over case — more shaky relief innings = more runs. PIT team trends show 6.4 RS avg at home in Keller's starts, and ARI scores 5.4 avg in Kelly's recent starts. The -105 price on the over at 9.0 is reasonable value given both pen-starter combinations.
ARI Team Total o4.5 (+105)
ARI wRC+ 127 vs RHP (elite) faces Keller (xERA 5.82, Barrel% 13%, home ERA 5.40) and a PIT bullpen with xERA 5.17. ARI gets positive value at +105 on a 4.5 team total — they should have no trouble reaching this mark given both Keller's overall profile and the shaky relief corps behind him. ARI 1-4 SP away L5 is the only concern, but that's about wins not scoring — their away scoring avg is only 1.6 but that's driven by Kelly's recent weak offense support in specific starts, not ARI's actual lineup quality.
ARI ML (+100)
ARI has a meaningful pitching and matchup edge. Merrill Kelly's season ERA (2.12) vs xERA (4.13) shows some luck, but his recent 3-start ERA of 4.00 is still solid and he has a strong specific history at PNC Park (1.45 ERA). Keller is a genuinely poor pitcher: xERA 5.82, recent ERA 5.50, barrel% 13%, and home ERA of 5.40 in 3 starts. The PIT bullpen is disqualifying for a PIT side bet (xERA 5.17). ARI's offense is hot (wRC+ 127 vs RHP) while PIT's wRC+ is a cold 94 vs RHP with a 30.3% K rate. Getting ARI at +100 (essentially a pick'em) when the pitching and offensive matchup both clearly favor Arizona is excellent value — the market is pricing this as even despite ARI holding the stronger starter, better bullpen, and better offense.
BAL @
DET6:40 PM · Comerica ParkRainy
BAL @
DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Kyle Bradish R
xERA2.88 (elite)K%18.2 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%5.2 (good)ERA2.21IP/gs6.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs97BB%5.2
DET vs RHP
wRC+122 (above avg)K%22.5 (avg)HH%40.4 (above avg)
Keider Montero R
xERA1.87 (elite)K%39.1 (elite)HH%34.6 (good)Barrel%3.9 (elite)ERA3.09IP/gs11.7 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs61BB%2.2
BAL vs RHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%42.3 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+100-1.5 (+161)O8.5 (-110)DET-115+1.5 (-182)U8.5 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-104+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-113)DET-115-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBALO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-145)O1.5 (-166)U1.5 (+130)DETO4.5 (+120)U4.5 (-140)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Bradish5.5 (-106 / -113)17.5 (-138 / +107)Keider Montero4.5 (+100 / -116)15.5 (-110 / -116)
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@
W6.08944111
W6.08944111Jul 11vs
W6.29652211
W6.29652211Jul 5@
L7.210655133
L7.210655133Jun 28vs
L4.08521534
L4.08521534Jun 22@
W8.010196100
W8.010196100Keider Montero · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22@
W5.18183011
W5.18183011Jul 17@
W3.1*4351000
W3.1*4351000Jul 12vs
L3.0*5854133
L3.0*5854133Jul 8vs
W1.2*3212100
W1.2*3212100Jul 4@
W3.0*3600100
W3.0*3600100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Keider Montero
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.12.202.04.02.0(1)
home starts7.00.003.06.01.0(1)
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 2-2 vs DET this season (4 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 4.6 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 4.4 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-2 vs BAL this season (4 games).
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 4-1 in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET are 3-2 in Keider Montero's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 5.8 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET average 6.0 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 1.73 (elite)ERA 1.292d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 2.952d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Rainy
90°F, Overcast, Wind 13 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (27%)
Flags · 2
- DET — Keider Montero: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-17, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: rain risk 27% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
RAIN RISK 27% disqualifies this game; also Keider Montero's recent outings are essentially bullpen appearances (32-58 pitch counts), making his stats completely unreliable for projection.
PHI @
MIA✓6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
PHI @
MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zack Wheeler R
xERA1.44 (elite)K%45.8 (elite)HH%21.6 (elite)Barrel%2.7 (elite)ERA1.35IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs98BB%2.8
MIA vs RHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%23.1 (avg)HH%39.7 (avg)
Tyler Phillips R
xERA3.90 (avg)K%13.3 (below avg)HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%2.9 (elite)ERA3.48IP/gs3.4 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs55BB%8.9
PHI vs RHP
wRC+54 (poor)K%27.2 (below avg)HH%43.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-186-1.5 (-110)O7.5 (-114)MIA+157+1.5 (-109)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-190-0.5 (-125)O4.5 (+116)MIA+154+0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)MIAO2.5 (-154)U2.5 (+120)O1.5 (+105)U1.5 (-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZack Wheeler7.5 (+112 / -138)18.5 (+136 / -178)Tyler Phillips3.5 (-130 / +104)14.5 (-119 / -105)
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
L7.09395022
L7.09395022Jul 12@
W6.096102200
W6.096102200Jul 7@
W7.0104144011
W7.0104144011Jul 1vs
W4.2104109144
W4.2104109144Jun 26@
W7.09854111
W7.09854111Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@
L4.16825123
L4.16825123Jul 12vs
L1.02612122
L1.02612122Jul 8vs
W5.07134200
W5.07134200Jul 3@
W3.17127255
W3.17127255Jun 28@
L7.19716022
L7.19716022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zack Wheeler
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA6.31.4210.03.31.7(3)
at MIA6.01.508.03.02.0(1)
Tyler Phillips
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI4.018.004.06.03.0(1)
home starts4.03.002.73.72.0(3)
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-2 vs MIA this season (7 games).
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 4-1 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 4.4 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 3.0 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-5 vs PHI this season (7 games).
- MIA are 0-10 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA have lost 12 straight.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 2.6 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 4.462d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 4.79 (below avg)ERA 5.082d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: avg 3.4 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- PHI bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: 2026-07-12: 2 ER in 1.0 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Zack Wheeler Ks o7.5 (+110)
Wheeler is elite: K% 45.8%, xERA 1.44, averaging 9.7 K/start over recent 3. MIA has a K% of 23.1% vs RHP — solid strikeout rate. Wheeler vs MIA history: 3gs, 1.42 ERA, 10.0 K/gs average. His recent 3 starts show 14K, 10K, 5K (the 5K was in 7 IP vs NYM who has lower K rates). MIA K% at 23.1% is slightly below CHW's typical K rate but Wheeler's dominance vs this specific opponent (10 K/gs avg) speaks loudly. Adjusted expectation: ~9-10 Ks. The line is 7.5 at +110 — massive value. Wheeler gets a favorable matchup, good run support incentive to stay in longer (PHI bullpen stressed, manager leaves him in), and a historic pattern of dominating this lineup. This is a strong over.
PHI @ MIA F5 u4.5 (-152)
Wheeler is dominant (xERA 1.44, K% 45.8%, 10 K/gs vs MIA historically) and Tyler Phillips is a limited pitcher (avg 3.4 IP/gs) but MIA bullpen will need to step in early. The F5 under at -152 is too expensive — the K over at +110 is the better play for the same edge.
TOR @
WSN✓6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHot
TOR @
WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Max Scherzer R
xERA3.94 (avg)K%8.9 (poor)HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)ERA10.80IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs79BB%12.5
WSN vs RHP
wRC+141 (elite)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%37.6 (avg)
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA5.45 (poor)K%11.9 (poor)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%9.5 (avg)ERA8.25IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs70BB%15.2
TOR vs LHP
wRC+65 (poor)K%23.1 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+104-1.5 (+156)O10.0 (-102)WSN-120-1.5 (+155)U9.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+112+0.5 (-128)O5.5 (-106)WSN-140-0.5 (-102)U5.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTORO4.5 (-115)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)WSNO4.5 (-125)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMax Scherzer3.5 (+130 / -158)11.5 (-170 / +120)Andrew Alvarez——
Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 10vs
L3.18245355
L3.18245355Apr 24vs
L2.18206377
L2.18206377Apr 18@
L6.07415122
L6.07415122Apr 12vs
L2.16835288
L2.16835288Apr 6vs
L2.03622122
L2.03622122Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@
W4.17426333
W4.17426333Jul 12vs
L2.0*4024133
L2.0*4024133Jul 7vs
L5.29734555
L5.29734555Jul 1@
W4.2*7462100
W4.2*7462100Jun 26@
L4.18856322
L4.18856322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Alvarez
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR—
home starts4.65.874.04.53.0(2)
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 0-5 in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 0-1 in Max Scherzer's last 1 away starts.
- TOR average 3.2 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 2.0 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 1 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 home starts.
- WSN average 4.2 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 3.7 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.22 (good)ERA 4.702d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 5.00 (below avg)ERA 4.562d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 3 mph NNE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
- TOR — Max Scherzer: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TOR — Max Scherzer: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.00 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- TOR bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- WSN bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TOR — Max Scherzer: 47 days since last start (2026-06-10) — may not be fully stretched out
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12, 2026-07-01 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
TOR @ WSN o10.0 (-104)
This is the strongest over play on the slate. Max Scherzer: ERA 10.80, recent ERA 10.69, avg 3.9 IP/gs, 47 days since last start (may not be stretched out), BB% 12%, and command concerns. Andrew Alvarez: ERA 8.25, xERA 5.45 (poor), recent ERA 6.77, BB% 15%, avg 6.0 IP/gs but short recent outings. WSN bullpen xERA 5.00 (disqualifier for ML but strengthens over case). WSN offense is elite vs RHP (wRC+ 141). Both starters are among the worst on today's slate. Neither is expected to go deep given their pitch counts and recent struggles. At -104 on the over at 10.0, this is excellent value — the market is surprisingly modest given two of the worst starters in the game.
WSN Team Total o4.5 (-130)
WSN wRC+ 141 vs RHP (elite, best on the slate) faces Max Scherzer who has a 10.80 ERA, recent ERA 10.69, and hasn't started in 47 days. Even accounting for the 2 ER in 6 IP start that looks decent, his last two starts were disasters (8 ER in 2.1 IP and 2 ER in 2.0 IP). WSN scores 4.2 avg in Alvarez's recent starts but that's against TOR's Scherzer — WSN scores here. This team total is a direct expression of the WSN offense vs a compromised Scherzer.
ATL @
NYM7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
ATL @
NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Martin Perez L
xERA6.46 (poor)K%8.5 (poor)HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA5.40IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs79BB%15.2
NYM vs LHP
wRC+53 (poor)K%29.8 (poor)HH%37.0 (avg)
Zac Thornton L
xERA3.11 (good)K%20.6 (avg)HH%32.0 (good)Barrel%12.0 (below avg)ERA0.47IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs80BB%5.9
ATL vs LHP
wRC+91 (below avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-108-1.5 (+150)O8.5 (-118)NYM-106+1.5 (-180)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-110+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-125)NYM-114-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (-104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATLO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)NYMO4.5 (+114)U3.5 (+118)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMartin Perez3.5 (-130 / +111)15.5 (+140 / +134)Zac Thornton4.5 (+104 / -126)16.5 (-112 / -112)
Martin Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs
W4.07531400
W4.07531400Jul 5vs
L4.17716245
L4.17716245Jun 30vs
L5.08515344
L5.08515344Jun 24@
L4.08244433
L4.08244433Jun 19vs
W6.08256211
W6.08256211Zac Thornton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@
W6.08123100
W6.08123100Jul 12vs
L7.08252200
L7.08252200Jun 26vs
L6.07875111
L6.07875111May 20@
L4.18034244
L4.18034244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Martin Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM4.64.892.55.01.5(2)
at NYM5.11.764.04.01.0(1)
Zac Thornton
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL—
home starts6.50.696.03.51.5(2)
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 3-4 vs NYM this season (7 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 2-3 in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 4.8 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.8 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-3 vs ATL this season (7 games).
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 1-3 in Zac Thornton's last 4 starts.
- NYM are 0-2 in Zac Thornton's last 2 home starts.
- NYM average 2.8 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 4 starts.
- NYM average 1.5 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 2 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 4.442d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.80 (avg)ERA 3.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph SSE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- ATL — Martin Perez: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATL — Martin Perez: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ATL — Martin Perez: 2026-07-05: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATL — Martin Perez: recent opponents high-K: STL 29%, NYM 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Zac Thornton's xERA 3.11 and home ERA 0.69 make him a strong pitcher, but both bullpens are average and NYM's offense vs LHP is very poor (wRC+ 53) — the over is unattractive and the side at ATL -108 / NYM -106 is essentially a coin flip with no meaningful edge identified.
CLE @
CIN7:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHot
CLE @
CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Slade Cecconi R
xERA5.43 (poor)K%17.6 (avg)HH%54.9 (poor)Barrel%11.8 (below avg)ERA7.43IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs85BB%7.3
CIN vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%21.5 (avg)HH%37.2 (avg)
Chase Burns R
xERA3.69 (good)K%18.2 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)ERA2.81IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs95BB%15.2
CLE vs RHP
wRC+115 (above avg)K%21.8 (avg)HH%34.3 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+138+1.5 (-149)O8.5 (-109)CIN-162-1.5 (+126)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+162+0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-110)CIN-195-0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCLEO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-105)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)CINO4.5 (-104)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USlade Cecconi4.5 (+100 / -125)15.5 (+105 / -112)Chase Burns6.5 (+116 / -146)16.5 (-125 / -105)
Slade Cecconi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs
L4.28857337
L4.28857337Jul 8@
L3.26746133
L3.26746133Jul 2vs
W5.010039155
W5.010039155Jun 27vs
W6.08743200
W6.08743200Jun 21@
L6.07916222
L6.07916222Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@
W5.09163200
W5.09163200Jul 8vs
W5.010623633
W5.010623633Jul 2@
W6.08944222
W6.08944222Jun 27@
W6.093109055
W6.093109055Jun 21@
W5.09675311
W5.09675311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Slade Cecconi
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.03.608.04.50.5(2)
at CIN5.05.408.05.00.0(1)
Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE—
home starts5.32.816.03.73.3(3)
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-1 vs CIN this season (3 games).
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have lost 5 straight.
- CLE are 2-3 in Slade Cecconi's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 0-5 in Slade Cecconi's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 4.4 runs/game in Slade Cecconi's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 1.6 runs/game in Slade Cecconi's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 1-2 vs CLE this season (3 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 5-0 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 4-1 in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 7.0 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 8.6 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 2.46 (elite)ERA 3.682d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 2.85 (elite)ERA 4.932d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
94°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- CLE — Slade Cecconi: HH% 55% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CIN — Chase Burns: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CLE bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
AI Analysis
CIN is priced as a large favorite (ML -162) already reflecting the pitching edge. Cecconi's xERA 5.43 is concerning but recent form has been solid. The market has already fully priced this — no edge remaining on either side.
NYY @
CHW7:40 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
NYY @
CHWMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Max Fried L
xERA2.64 (elite)K%25.4 (good)HH%19.4 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA5.14IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs71BB%9.1
CHW vs LHP
wRC+66 (poor)K%25.8 (below avg)HH%39.8 (avg)
Noah Schultz L
xERA6.89 (poor)K%13.4 (below avg)HH%43.4 (below avg)Barrel%9.4 (avg)ERA6.59IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs82BB%4.5
NYY vs LHP
wRC+75 (poor)K%29.2 (poor)HH%38.8 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-145-1.5 (+114)O8.5 (-105)CHW+124+1.5 (-135)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-160-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-106)CHW+130+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)CHWO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-111)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMax Fried5.5 (+120 / -147)15.5 (+120 / -160)Noah Schultz4.5 (-111 / -101)14.5 (-164 / +125)
Max Fried · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs
W5.05771100
W5.05771100May 13@
L3.06125133
L3.06125133May 8@
L6.09456355
L6.09456355May 3vs
W5.110766333
W5.110766333Apr 27@
W6.08954200
W6.08954200Noah Schultz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@
L3.280211055
L3.280211055Jul 12vs
W5.07444011
W5.07444011Jul 7vs
L5.09237344
L5.09237344Jul 1@
L4.18772433
L4.18772433May 24@
L4.07016166
L4.07016166SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Max Fried
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW7.01.297.04.02.0(1)
at CHW—
Noah Schultz
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY—
home starts4.75.113.34.32.7(3)
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-1 vs CHW this season (3 games).
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 2-3 in Max Fried's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Max Fried's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 2.6 runs/game in Max Fried's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.4 runs/game in Max Fried's last 5 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 1-2 vs NYY this season (3 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 1-4 in Noah Schultz's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-3 in Noah Schultz's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 3.2 runs/game in Noah Schultz's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.8 runs/game in Noah Schultz's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 2.582d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 2.642d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- NYY — Max Fried: last start: 57 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- NYY — Max Fried: 2026-05-13: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHW — Noah Schultz: 2026-07-21: 5 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters have poor recent form (Fried 4.21 recent ERA, Schultz 8.93 recent ERA) but both offenses are also poor vs LHP (NYY 75 wRC+, CHW 66 wRC+) creating a wash. NYY ML at -145 exceeds the -150 threshold, and the total at 8.5 is already pricing in the pitching struggles. No clear edge.
CHC @
STL✓7:45 PM · Busch StadiumHot
CHC @
STL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
David Peterson L
xERA6.29 (poor)K%13.4 (below avg)HH%56.0 (poor)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA6.46IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs87BB%11.9
STL vs LHP
wRC+72 (poor)K%29.0 (poor)HH%39.3 (avg)
M. Liberatore L
xERA3.56 (good)K%22.9 (avg)HH%43.5 (below avg)Barrel%2.2 (elite)ERA4.41IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs81BB%7.1
CHC vs LHP
wRC+133 (elite)K%18.8 (above avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-116-1.5 (+130)O9.5 (-108)STL+100+1.5 (-150)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-118-0.5 (+112)O5.5 (-102)STL-106+0.5 (-146)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHCO4.5 (-135)U4.5 (+108)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)STLO4.5 (-105)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavid Peterson3.5 (+120 / -140)15.5 (-120 / -110)M. Liberatore—15.5 (+125 / -180)
David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
W6.29443100
W6.29443100Jul 9@
L5.07722411
L5.07722411Jul 3vs
L3.2913931010
L3.2913931010Jun 27@
W5.26925022
W5.26925022Jun 21@
L4.07956245
L4.07956245M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@
L5.19579255
L5.19579255Jul 11vs
W6.07164100
W6.07164100Jul 5@
L5.07834234
L5.07834234Jun 30@
W5.09891411
W5.09891411Jun 24vs
L5.19838266
L5.19838266SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.214.106.08.01.5(2)
at STL—
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.02.983.73.72.3(3)
home starts5.15.334.35.32.0(3)
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 2-4 vs STL this season (6 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-2 in David Peterson's last 4 starts.
- CHC are 1-1 in David Peterson's last 2 away starts.
- CHC average 5.5 runs/game in David Peterson's last 4 starts.
- CHC average 5.0 runs/game in David Peterson's last 2 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 4-2 vs CHC this season (6 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 3.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 5.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.29 (avg)ERA 3.262d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 4.73 (below avg)ERA 4.582d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
101°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- CHC — David Peterson: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CHC — David Peterson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-15 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — David Peterson: 2026-07-03: 10 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 28) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHC — David Peterson: recent opponents high-K: STL 29%, BAL 27%, DET 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-07-21: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-128)
CHC is an elite offense vs LHP (wRC+ 133) facing Liberatore (xERA 3.56, but recent ERA 5.96) and a STL bullpen (xERA 4.73). Liberatore has a 2.98 ERA in 3 starts vs CHC historically, but his recent form is shaky. CHC K% of only 18.8% means they put the ball in play. CHC averaging 5.5 RS in Peterson's recent starts. However, the -128 price is a bit steep for a team total — it's borderline.
CHC ML (-110)
David Peterson is a liability on the mound for CHC (xERA 6.29, recent ERA inflated but even adjusted for bad outlier his other starts have 2 ER in 5.2 IP and 4 ER in 4 IP — not reliable). STL's xERA 3.56 Liberatore is shaky recently. The compound edge: CHC elite offense vs LHP (wRC+ 133), CHC facing one of the worst starters (xERA 6.29) in the slate, CHC bullpen (xERA 4.29) is comparable to STL's (xERA 4.73). STL wRC+ only 72 vs LHP (poor). CHC ML at -110 is excellent value — the market should have CHC as a bigger favorite given Peterson's profile. This is clearly mispriced.
HOU @
LAA9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
HOU @
LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tatsuya Imai R
xERA7.29 (poor)K%23.2 (good)HH%46.9 (poor)Barrel%18.8 (poor)ERA6.55IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs79BB%19.6
LAA vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%38.0 (avg)
Walbert Urena R
xERA2.99 (elite)K%21.5 (avg)HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA1.15IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs98BB%15.4
HOU vs RHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%19.6 (above avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU-110-1.5 (+148)O8.5 (-110)LAA-104+1.5 (-176)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-114-0.5 (+118)O4.5 (-125)LAA-110+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-104)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UHOUO4.5 (+105)U4.5 (-125)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)LAAO4.5 (+118)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTatsuya Imai6.5 (+124 / -150)15.5 (+100 / -120)Walbert Urena4.5 (-110 / -115)15.5 (-122 / -106)
Tatsuya Imai · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
W6.09684311
W6.09684311Jul 7@
W3.28434322
W3.28434322Jul 1vs
L1.15724555
L1.15724555Jun 25@
W6.096102100
W6.096102100Jun 19vs
W6.089116033
W6.089116033Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
W6.09856111
W6.09856111Jul 8@
W4.09031500
W4.09031500Jul 2@
L5.210761411
L5.210761411Jun 26vs
L4.17156277
L4.17156277Jun 20@
W5.09064000
W5.09064000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tatsuya Imai
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA2.216.364.03.04.0(1)
at LAA—
Walbert Urena
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.00.007.03.05.0(1)
home starts5.04.775.75.02.7(3)
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 3-4 vs LAA this season (7 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 4-1 in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 4-1 in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 away starts.
- HOU average 5.0 runs/game in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 6.0 runs/game in Tatsuya Imai's last 5 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-3 vs HOU this season (7 games).
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 3-2 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 4-1 in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 5.6 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 6.8 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.55 (good)ERA 3.402d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.04 (good)ERA 2.222d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: BB% 20% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: avg 3.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- LAA — Walbert Urena: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- HOU bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- HOU — Tatsuya Imai: 2026-07-01: 5 ER in 1.1 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Imai is a severe liability (xERA 7.29, BB% 20%, barrel% 19%) but his recent two starts were excellent (6.0IP/0ER and 6.0IP/3ER) and his 1-start history vs LAA is misleading. Both total angles are already priced in. The matchup is too unpredictable with Imai's extreme variance.
BOS @
ATH✓9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHot
BOS @
ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Payton Tolle L
xERA1.80 (elite)K%35.5 (elite)HH%30.6 (good)Barrel%8.3 (avg)ERA2.93IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs82BB%4.8
ATH vs LHP
wRC+86 (below avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)
Jack Perkins R
xERA4.60 (below avg)K%24.6 (good)HH%36.1 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA10.03IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs82BB%12.3
BOS vs RHP
wRC+106 (avg)K%23.0 (avg)HH%37.4 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-172-1.5 (-106)O9.5 (-108)ATH+145+1.5 (-110)U9.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-154-0.5 (-118)O5.5 (+108)ATH+130+0.5 (-110)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UBOSO5.5 (+100)U5.5 (-120)O2.5 (-125)U2.5 (-105)ATHO3.5 (-138)U3.5 (+110)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPayton Tolle5.5 (-111 / -108)16.5 (-112 / +100)Jack Perkins4.5 (-138 / +110)15.5 (+126 / +134)
Payton Tolle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs
W5.28898144
W5.28898144Jul 12@
W3.26673111
W3.26673111Jul 7@
W6.09162100
W6.09162100Jul 1vs
L3.07657366
L3.07657366Jun 26vs
W7.08871200
W7.08871200Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@
L5.08745133
L5.08745133Jul 9@
L3.0*6722233
L3.0*6722233Jul 3vs
L3.29187477
L3.29187477Jun 27@
L5.08154122
L5.08154122Jun 21vs
L5.07884244
L5.07884244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Payton Tolle
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH2.09.002.03.00.0(1)
at ATH2.09.002.03.00.0(1)
Jack Perkins
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts4.49.557.35.72.7(3)
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 3.6 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 0-5 in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-3 in Jack Perkins's last 4 home starts.
- ATH average 4.8 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 5.2 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 4 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.00 (good)ERA 1.632d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 6.14 (poor)ERA 9.002d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- ATH — Jack Perkins: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 6.14 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- BOS bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Payton Tolle: recent opponents high-K: CHW 26%, NYM 30%, BAL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-09 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATH — Jack Perkins: 2026-07-03: 7 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 20) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
BOS @ ATH o9.5 (-109)
Jack Perkins is in acute distress: ERA 10.03, recent ERA 8.86 (adjusting for the bad start that skews it, even his other starts show 5-6 ER in 10 IP), home ERA 9.55 in 3 starts. ATH bullpen is a disaster at xERA 6.14. BOS offense is solid at wRC+ 106. Tolle's matchup history vs ATH shows 9.00 ERA in 2.0 IP, and despite his elite xERA, his recent 3.38 ERA and that rough prior outing here gives ATH offense a path to runs. Park APF 108 is hitter-friendly. Both bullpens or at least ATH's ensures runs late. The only hesitation is Tolle's elite xERA 1.80, but his recent struggles (6 ER in one start) and his matchup history at this park argue for runs on the BOS side too.
BOS -1.5 (-106)
Jack Perkins has been awful: ERA 10.03, xERA 4.60, recent ERA 8.86 (even accounting for the 7-ER outlier, his other two starts yielded 2 ER and 4 ER), BB% 12%, and home ERA of 9.55 in 3 starts. ATH bullpen xERA is 6.14 — a disqualifying factor for ATH side bets but irrelevant for BOS spread. BOS bullpen is elite (xERA 3.00, ERA 1.63) and will hold leads. Tolle is struggling recently (3.38 recent ERA) but still has an elite xERA of 1.80 and ATH's offense vs LHP is weak (wRC+ 86). BOS is 9-1 away L10. -1.5 at -106 is excellent pricing for this matchup quality.
MIL @
SFG✓9:45 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
MIL @
SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Brandon Sproat R
xERA5.60 (poor)K%19.3 (avg)HH%41.2 (below avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)ERA3.86IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%15.8
SFG vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Tyler Mahle R
xERA3.56 (good)K%18.1 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)Barrel%3.7 (elite)ERA3.86IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs90BB%5.6
MIL vs RHP
wRC+118 (above avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%41.5 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-136-1.5 (+120)O8.5 (-105)SFG+116+1.5 (-142)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-120-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (-110)SFG+100+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UMILO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)SFGO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-145)U1.5 (+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Sproat4.5 (+104 / -122)15.5 (+110 / -146)Tyler Mahle4.5 (-134 / +106)15.5 (+118 / -151)
Brandon Sproat · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
L4.29944422
L4.29944422Jul 11@
L3.08332223
L3.08332223Jul 5@
W4.09245311
W4.09245311Jun 30vs
W5.110674222
W5.110674222Jun 23@
W6.080101000
W6.080101000Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21@
L5.09145133
L5.09145133Jul 11vs
W7.010445311
W7.010445311Jul 5@
L4.17558034
L4.17558034Jun 29@
L4.18534344
L4.18534344Jun 24vs
W5.27042200
W5.27042200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL—
home starts5.72.093.73.32.7(3)
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-2 vs SFG this season (4 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 2-3 in Brandon Sproat's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-3 in Brandon Sproat's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 3.2 runs/game in Brandon Sproat's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 2.8 runs/game in Brandon Sproat's last 5 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-2 vs MIL this season (4 games).
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 4-1 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 3.6 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.2 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 5 home starts.
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 4.312d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 3.682d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Weather · Windy
66°F, Clear, Wind 20 mph WNW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- MIL — Brandon Sproat: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- MIL — Brandon Sproat: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- MIL — Brandon Sproat: recent opponents high-K: PIT 30%, NYM 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: wind: Blowing Out 20 mph — factor into total and HR expectations
MIL @ SFG o8.5 (-105)
Wind blowing out at 21 mph is a significant weather factor at Oracle Park (APF 101 baseline, effectively ~105+ today). Tyler Mahle is struggling recently (recent ERA 4.70, xERA 3.56) and averaging only 4.0 K/start in a 5.4 IP/gs context. Brandon Sproat has been hot recently (recent ERA 1.79) but xERA 5.60 (poor) signals major regression risk — his recent hot streak is not sustainable per his peripherals. Both offenses are above average (MIL wRC+ 118, SFG wRC+ 123). With wind blowing out hard, over 8.5 at -105 is attractive.