MLB Game Overviews

Thursday, June 25, 2026

Updated 15:37 UTC · Odds Updated 15:37 UTC

KCR @ TBR
12:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Seth Lugo R
xERA5.24 (below avg)K%10.3 (poor)HH%46.8 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below avg)ERA4.40IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs74BB%8.6
TBR vs RHP
wRC+123 (above avg)K%20.3 (avg)HH%36.0 (avg)
Ian Seymour L
xERA3.08 (good)K%23.1 (good)HH%41.2 (below avg)Barrel%8.8 (avg)ERA4.38IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs69BB%7.7
KCR vs LHP
wRC+140 (elite)K%17.2 (above avg)HH%42.9 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+123+1.5 (-164)O8.5 (+100)TBR-138-1.5 (+145)U8.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+112+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-108)TBR-138-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UKCRO3.5 (-120)U3.5 (+100)O1.5 (-140)U1.5 (+110)TBRO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo4.5 (+115 / -140)17.5 (-104 / -116)Ian Seymour
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19vs STLW6.08505312
Jun 10vs TEXL3.14423111
Jun 4@ MINW5.09246155
May 30@ TEXL6.09066013
May 24vs SEAW6.18636233
Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs WSNL5.08147033
Jun 14@ LAAW3.1*7232322
Jun 8vs BOSW4.05551111
Jun 2vs DETL2.0*4012333
May 30vs LAAL1.0*2310211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.03.005.05.00.0(1)
at TBR6.03.005.05.00.0(1)
Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR
home starts4.54.004.54.00.5(2)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 4.40
TBR
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 4.36
Weather · Dome
Dome
Flags · 5
  • KCR — Seth Lugo: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • KCR — Seth Lugo: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • KCR — Seth Lugo: 2026-06-04: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • KCR — Seth Lugo: recent opponents low-K: MIN 16%, STL 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-14, 2026-06-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
Lugo is a concerning xERA 5.24 with Barrel% 13% and HH% 47% against a TBR offense (wRC+ 123), but Seymour's recent workload flags (recent bullpen appearances, very short recent outings of 1-4IP) introduce too much uncertainty about how long he actually goes — the edge is real but not clean enough to bet confidently.
SEA @ PIT
12:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Miller R
xERA2.30 (elite)K%37.1 (elite)HH%32.4 (good)Barrel%8.1 (avg)ERA1.42IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs84BB%3.2
PIT vs RHP
wRC+134 (elite)K%23.0 (avg)HH%43.3 (above avg)
Bubba Chandler R
xERA2.83 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA3.18IP/gs8.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs82BB%7.3
SEA vs RHP
wRC+74 (poor)K%25.1 (below avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA-144-1.5 (+118)O8.5 (-105)PIT+124+1.5 (-140)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA-148-0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-106)PIT+124+0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 USEAO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)PITO3.5 (-115)U3.5 (-111)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Miller5.5 (-104 / -116)17.5 (-147 / +112)Bubba Chandler4.5 (-138 / +120)15.5 (+117 / -144)
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19vs BOSL5.06673011
Jun 12@ WSNW8.09174022
Jun 6@ DETW6.09491200
May 31vs ARIW5.07161100
May 25@ ATHW5.0*8345022
Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ COLL6.07416222
Jun 13vs MIAW5.28463122
Jun 7@ ATLL5.1*8871223
Jun 2@ HOUW5.09136244
May 27vs CHCL5.09158244
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA
home starts4.46.824.34.72.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 2.40 (elite)ERA 4.93
PIT
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 4.07
Weather · Neutral Conditions
78°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph SSW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
  • SEA — Bryce Miller: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-25 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • SEA — Bryce Miller: last start: 66 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • PIT — Bubba Chandler: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • PIT — Bubba Chandler: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • PIT — Bubba Chandler: 2026-06-02: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Bryce Miller is elite (xERA 2.30, recent ERA 0.00) but both starters have low pitch counts recently (Miller 66pc, Chandler 74pc) with bullpen appearance flags raising injury/usage concerns — if Miller exits early, SEA's pen is unreliable (ERA 4.93). Chandler is also struggling recently (recent ERA 7.20). The uncertainty around actual pitcher workload disqualifies a confident play.
ATH @ SFG
3:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Jeffrey Springs L
xERA5.64 (poor)K%19.1 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)ERA12.08IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs87BB%9.5
SFG vs LHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)
Landen Roupp R
xERA2.84 (elite)K%25.4 (good)HH%29.5 (elite)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA3.86IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs100BB%9.0
ATH vs RHP
wRC+139 (elite)K%20.9 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+104-1.5 (+265)O7.5 (+575)SFG-110-1.5 (+880)U3.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+114+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-108)SFG-140-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UATHO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+106)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)SFGO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-145)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJeffrey Springs4.5 (-114 / -110)15.5 (-135 / +102)Landen Roupp6.5 (+124 / +122)17.5 (-130 / +100)
Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19vs LAAW3.28644466
Jun 14vs COLL4.07757068
Jun 8vs MILL5.09938255
Jun 3@ CHCW3.28637144
May 27vs SEAL5.08476125
Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ MIAL6.09877122
Jun 12vs CHCL4.210554244
Jun 6@ CHCL5.29853311
Jun 1@ MILL4.09648588
May 25vs ARIL5.09377124
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jeffrey Springs
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.11.484.03.50.5(2)
at SFG6.21.455.02.00.0(1)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH6.00.005.05.02.0(1)
home starts4.44.776.74.72.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 7.69
SFG
xERA 5.30 (poor)ERA 5.14
Weather · Neutral Conditions
63°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 11 mph W
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • SFG bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.30 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • ATH — Jeffrey Springs: recent opponents high-K: MIL 25%, LAA 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • SFG — Landen Roupp: 2026-06-12: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling recently (Springs recent ERA 7.50 with 13% Barrel%, Roupp recent ERA 6.97 from a blowup start) but the total lines are bizarrely distorted (O7.5 at +575, U3.5 at -112) suggesting a data anomaly or significant market uncertainty — no reliable edge exists at these lines.
HOU @ DET
6:40 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Tatsuya Imai R
xERA2.82 (elite)K%36.4 (elite)HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)ERA7.71IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs73BB%7.3
DET vs RHP
wRC+120 (above avg)K%24.6 (below avg)HH%37.0 (avg)
Troy Melton R
xERA2.98 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%7.5 (good)ERA3.32IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%6.7
HOU vs RHP
wRC+124 (above avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%42.0 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU-105-1.5 (+158)O9.0 (-104)DET-110+1.5 (-190)U9.0 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-106+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-138)DET-116-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UHOUO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)DETO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTatsuya Imai5.5 (+108 / -129)15.5 (+125 / -154)Troy Melton4.5 (+122 / -147)17.5 (-103 / -128)
Tatsuya Imai · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19vs CLEW6.089116033
Jun 12@ KCRW0.23814155
Jun 6vs ATHW5.09285322
May 31vs MILL6.011053222
May 25@ TEXW6.09720400
Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs CHWW6.08451311
Jun 9vs MINW5.08858044
Jun 3@ TBRW8.09454222
May 29@ CHWL7.08916111
May 24@ BALW5.27932311
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU
home starts5.54.095.04.51.5(2)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 3.30
DET
xERA 2.45 (elite)ERA 1.52
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph WSW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • HOU — Tatsuya Imai: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
  • HOU — Tatsuya Imai: 2026-06-12: 5 ER in 0.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • HOU — Tatsuya Imai: low-K outing 2026-06-12 (1 Ks vs avg 6.7) — stuff was flat that day
  • DET — Troy Melton: 2026-06-09: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
PHI @ WSN
6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
C. Sanchez L
xERA3.16 (good)K%24.0 (good)HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%13.0 (below avg)ERA3.38IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs99BB%4.0
WSN vs LHP
wRC+145 (elite)K%25.0 (below avg)HH%44.8 (above avg)
Cade Cavalli R
xERA6.66 (poor)K%13.8 (below avg)HH%42.2 (below avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)ERA6.39IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs79BB%6.9
PHI vs RHP
wRC+146 (elite)K%23.8 (avg)HH%41.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-165-1.5 (+101)O8.5 (-110)WSN+140+1.5 (-118)U8.5 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-166-0.5 (-118)O4.5 (+104)WSN+140+0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-135)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UPHIO4.5 (-128)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)WSNO3.5 (-106)U3.5 (-115)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Sanchez6.5 (+103 / -130)20.5 (-108 / -116)Cade Cavalli4.5 (-144 / +126)15.5 (+122 / -155)
C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs NYMW6.09155111
Jun 14@ MILL5.29838144
Jun 8@ TORW7.0107104122
Jun 3vs SDPW7.08484111
May 27@ SDPW7.010096000
Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20@ TBRW2.26816322
Jun 13vs SEAW5.08154033
Jun 7@ ARIL5.08827144
Jun 1vs MIAL5.08965322
May 26@ CLEW6.08775211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
C. Sanchez
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.02.676.54.53.5(2)
at WSN
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI6.31.894.06.31.3(3)
home starts5.73.716.74.31.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 4.93
WSN
xERA 4.25 (avg)ERA 5.29
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • PHI — C. Sanchez: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • PHI — C. Sanchez: recent opponents high-K: TOR 26%, MIL 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • WSN — Cade Cavalli: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
TEX @ TOR
7:07 PM · Rogers CentreNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.50 (good)K%28.9 (elite)HH%57.5 (poor)Barrel%8.5 (avg)ERA3.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%9.2
TOR vs LHP
wRC+86 (below avg)K%26.1 (below avg)HH%22.5 (poor)
Kevin Gausman R
xERA3.56 (good)K%24.6 (good)HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%10.0 (avg)ERA7.71IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs89BB%9.8
TEX vs RHP
wRC+111 (avg)K%20.8 (avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+130+1.5 (-171)O8.0 (-102)TOR-152-1.5 (+146)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX+116+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-102)TOR-145-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO3.5 (-104)U3.5 (-120)O1.5 (-125)U1.5 (-105)TORO4.5 (+118)U4.5 (-140)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMacKenzie Gore5.5 (+126 / +122)17.5 (+106 / -135)Kevin Gausman6.5 (+121 / +120)17.5 (-162 / +123)
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs SDPL6.09565211
Jun 15vs MINL7.0102104244
Jun 10@ KCRW5.08768322
Jun 3@ STLL4.210059344
May 29vs KCRW6.19934100
Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ CHCL2.06837477
Jun 13vs NYYL7.010571211
Jun 7vs BALW5.09355044
Jun 2@ ATLL6.09685244
May 27vs MIAW5.09556211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.05.405.09.02.0(1)
at TOR5.05.405.09.02.0(1)
Kevin Gausman
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX8.01.126.05.00.0(1)
home starts5.73.185.74.01.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 6.11
TOR
xERA 3.84 (avg)ERA 3.56
Weather · Neutral Conditions
60°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph ENE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: HH% 57% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: recent opponents low-K: KCR 17%, SDP 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • TOR — Kevin Gausman: last start: 68 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • TOR — Kevin Gausman: 2026-06-19: 7 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 32) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Gausman's last start was only 68 pitches with a possible injury concern flagged, introducing significant workload uncertainty. Gore has a concerning HH% of 57% — batters are squaring him up at an extreme rate — and his xERA of 3.50 vs recent ERA of 3.53 offers no clear luck gap to exploit. No strong mispricing identified.
NYY @ BOS
7:10 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cam Schlittler R
xERA2.76 (elite)K%33.8 (elite)HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)ERA0.96IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs96BB%6.8
BOS vs RHP
wRC+94 (below avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%32.9 (below avg)
Connelly Early L
xERA3.10 (good)K%21.6 (avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA5.28IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs95BB%10.8
NYY vs LHP
wRC+114 (avg)K%25.1 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-141-1.5 (+119)O8.0 (-109)BOS+130+1.5 (-130)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-154-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (+114)BOS+134+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UNYYO4.5 (+100)U4.5 (-115)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)BOSO3.5 (-102)U3.5 (-125)O1.5 (-115)U1.5 (-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCam Schlittler6.5 (+114 / -120)17.5 (-152 / +116)Connelly Early5.5 (-110 / -105)16.5 (-108 / -110)
Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19vs CINW6.096134000
Jun 13@ TORW7.010176411
Jun 7vs BOSW5.29254111
Jun 2vs CLEL4.17635045
May 26@ KCRW6.07764011
Connelly Early · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20@ SEAW6.09872211
Jun 14vs TEXL4.291311266
Jun 8@ TBRL4.29665422
Jun 2vs BALL5.19666144
May 27vs ATLW7.09774300
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS6.61.365.04.01.0(2)
at BOS8.01.125.04.01.0(1)
Connelly Early
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.15.294.05.03.0(1)
home starts5.45.525.37.02.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.00
BOS
xERA 2.71 (elite)ERA 3.67
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph E
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 1
  • BOS — Connelly Early: 2026-06-14: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
CHC @ NYM
7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Matthew Boyd L
xERA3.78 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)HH%47.8 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs90BB%4.8
NYM vs LHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%20.7 (avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.50 (good)K%13.4 (below avg)HH%34.6 (good)Barrel%3.9 (elite)ERA11.20IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%6.0
CHC vs RHP
wRC+131 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-108-1.5 (+152)O8.5 (-110)NYM-108+1.5 (-175)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-112+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-114)NYM-110-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHCO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)NYMO3.5 (-140)U3.5 (+114)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMatthew Boyd4.5 (+104 / -132)Freddy Peralta5.5 (+115 / -130)16.5 (-104 / +103)
Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 3vs ARIW6.09454122
Apr 27@ SDPL4.09148255
Apr 22vs PHIW4.28455022
Apr 1vs LAAW5.298102212
Mar 26vs WSNL3.26376166
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20@ PHIL2.28021011010
Jun 14vs ATLW5.09024111
Jun 9vs STLL6.09856266
Jun 3@ SEAW6.010166211
May 29vs MIAW4.29458144
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.53.245.54.00.5(2)
at NYM6.03.008.06.00.0(1)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC5.14.744.03.03.0(3)
home starts5.16.514.06.01.3(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.41 (avg)ERA 4.94
NYM
xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 4.68
Weather · Neutral Conditions
74°F, Overcast, Wind 11 mph SSE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: 53 days since last start (2026-05-03) — may not be fully stretched out
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: 2026-04-27: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CHC — Matthew Boyd: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, ARI 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Both starters are struggling (Boyd recent ERA 6.43 with HH% 48% and 53 days since last start; Peralta recent ERA 6.11) and both offenses are elite (wRC+ 131), which does favor the over on 8.5 — but the signal is muddied by Boyd's long layoff and unknown current workload capacity, and the total at 8.5 is already pricing in the offensive edge; no clear mispricing.
ARI @ STL
7:45 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zac Gallen R
xERA5.38 (poor)K%11.7 (poor)HH%37.1 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA9.39IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs87BB%6.5
STL vs RHP
wRC+138 (elite)K%15.8 (elite)HH%45.4 (elite)
Michael McGreevy R
xERA4.78 (below avg)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)ERA4.76IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%4.2
ARI vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%13.7 (elite)HH%35.9 (avg)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+115+1.5 (-186)O9.0 (-105)STL-132-1.5 (+162)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+112+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-140)STL-135-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
OverUnderF5 OF5 UARIO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)STLO4.5 (-102)U4.5 (-120)O2.5 (-105)U2.5 (-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZac Gallen3.5 (-124 / +100)15.5 (-121 / -108)Michael McGreevy2.5 (-159 / +138)17.5 (+105 / -107)
Zac Gallen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs MINL4.081212299
Jun 14@ CINW6.08546233
Jun 9@ MIAL5.19439144
Jun 3vs LADL5.09019245
May 29@ SEAL5.08428155
Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ KCRL5.09528155
Jun 14@ MINL6.08927222
Jun 7vs CINW6.08355022
Jun 1vs TEXL6.08715222
May 26@ MILL4.08967355
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zac Gallen
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.26.924.03.04.0(1)
at STL5.26.924.03.04.0(1)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI
home starts5.73.712.36.71.0(3)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.71 (below avg)ERA 4.57
STL
xERA 5.64 (poor)ERA 6.69
Weather · Neutral Conditions
87°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph NE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.64 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • STL — Michael McGreevy: 2026-06-19: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • STL — Michael McGreevy: recent opponents low-K: MIN 16%, KCR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher