AI Picks · 7 Bets · Sep 1
Gavin Williams u17.5 Outs (+105)
TOR @ CLE · 6:41 PM ET
Williams has averaged 3.8 innings per start over his last 3 — 4.1, 5.2 and 1.1 innings, the last of them ending at 62 pitches — and none of the three reached 18 outs. A 13.6% walk rate, a 46.9% hard-hit rate and an 18.8% barrel rate over that window are why the outings keep ending early, and Toronto is exactly the wrong lineup for it: 126 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 with a 14.2% strikeout rate, a contact-heavy group that runs pitch counts. Cleveland's bullpen has thrown 3.0 innings in the past two days and owns a 2.03 xERA over its last 12, so there is no reason to stretch him. He went 6 innings against Toronto in April, but that was before the current stretch of short outings, and the market is pricing the over as though six innings is his normal night.
Found at 5:53 AM ET
Matthew Boyd u4.5 Ks (-125)
MIL @ CHC · 7:41 PM ET
Milwaukee is the hardest lineup on the board to strike out, at 13.1% vs left-handers over their last 6 and 16.2% over their last 12, and Boyd carries a 13.9% K rate with a 4.2% K-BB rate over his last 3 starts, totaling 2, 3 and 5 punchouts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him close to six innings, so the innings are not the reason for the under — the bat-missing is, and the two windows on the Brewers' contact rate agree with each other. He did get 5 in Arizona last time out, but that came against a lineup whiffing far more than this one. The number is set off a starter's workload rather than off a matchup where neither side misses bats.
Found at 5:53 AM ET
Troy Melton u4.5 Ks (-131)
DET @ MIN · 7:41 PM ET
Minnesota puts the ball in play as well as anyone, striking out 14.2% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6 and 14.7% over their last 12, and Melton is a 14.7% K rate arm with a 20.4% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, producing 4, 3 and 4 strikeouts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him the innings, and he still only got 4 in a full 7-inning outing against Tampa Bay last time out. The 5.3% walk rate keeps him in the zone and keeps at-bats short, which is how a starter faces 24 hitters and still finishes with three punchouts. The line is priced for an average starter's strikeout total in a matchup where both the arm and the lineup point well below it.
Found at 5:53 AM ET
Tyler Phillips o3.5 Ks (-106)
MIA @ KCR · 7:41 PM ET
Phillips carries a 30.2% K rate and a 31.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts and has struck out 4, 6 and 7 in outings of 4.0, 5.1 and 4.2 innings — he cleared this number in all three despite never completing six. Kansas City strikes out 19.9% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6, which is the softest part of this bet, and his outs line of 14.5 asks for only five innings, but at his rate four strikeouts arrives inside 17 or 18 batters. His recent totals did come against high-strikeout opponents in the Angels and Pirates, so today's number should land a touch lower — it still sits comfortably above 3.5. The market has set this off his short outings rather than off a bat-missing rate that produces four punchouts before the fifth inning.
Found at 5:53 AM ET
MacKenzie Gore u17.5 Outs (-114)
ATH @ TEX · 8:06 PM ET
Gore has averaged 5.1 innings per start over his last 3 and has faced the Athletics three times this season, going 4.2, 5.0 and 5.2 innings — 14, 15 and 17 outs, every one of them under this number, and each of those took 94 to 106 pitches. His 10.1% walk rate over his last 3 is the mechanism: he issued 4 free passes and was gone after 3.2 innings in Chicago last time out. Texas's bullpen has thrown 8.0 innings over the past two days, which argues for length, but a manager who needs innings still does not get them from a starter this club has never let past the 17th out. The line sits above the depth he has actually reached against this lineup in three tries this year.
Found at 5:53 AM ET
Gabriel Hughes u4.5 Ks (+133)
BAL @ COL · 8:41 PM ET
Hughes has a 10.3% K rate and a 15.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, with strikeout totals of 2, 2 and 3 in outings of 4.0, 5.0 and 5.0 innings, and his posted outs line of 14.5 means he is not expected to face many more hitters than that today. Baltimore does strike out 26.1% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6, but Hughes has not missed enough bats to convert that into five punchouts in any recent start, and Coors Field flattens the breaking ball he would need to. Getting plus money on a total he has cleared zero times in three tries is the mispricing.
Found at 5:53 AM ET
Jesus Luzardo o5.5 Ks (-146)
PHI @ ARI · 9:41 PM ET
Luzardo has struck out exactly 9 in each of his last 3 starts, on a 35.1% K rate and 33.3% whiff rate over that window, and he has gone 6.2, 5.2 and 7.0 innings in them. Arizona strikes out 22.4% of the time vs left-handers over their last 6 with a 46 wRC+ in that window, so the contact quality behind those swings is poor as well, and his posted outs line of 18.5 says the innings are there to work with. He allowed 5 earned in 4.2 innings against this club in April, but he struck out 8 in that outing, which is the half of it that matters here. The market's number sits more than three strikeouts below what he has actually produced in each of his last three times out.
Found at 5:53 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
SDP @
CIN6:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHot
SDP @
CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Randy Vasquez R
xERA3.54 (good)ERA3.18 (good)K%15.4 (below)Whiff%17.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs8.5 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs82BB%4.6 (elite)
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+122 (above)K%25.5 (below)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+105 (avg)K%25.2 (below)Whiff%24.7 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)
Nick Lodolo L
xERA7.60 (poor)ERA7.30 (poor)K%14.5 (below)Whiff%21.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.3 (below)Barrel%13.0 (below)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs86BB%9.7 (avg)
SDP vs LHP
L6
wRC+33 (poor)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%21.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%25.0 (below)HH%32.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 2.21 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
CIN
xERA 4.94 (below)ERA 6.23 (poor)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-136-1.5 (+118)O9.5 (-106)CIN+118+1.5 (-135)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-128-0.5 (+106)O5.5 (+100)CIN+105+0.5 (-138)U5.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP5.5 (+110/+108)2.5 (-110/-120)CIN4.5 (+114/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URandy Vasquez3.5 (+110 / -127)14.5 (-122 / -108)Nick Lodolo4.5 (+113 / -140)15.5 (+130 / -171)
Randy Vasquez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
W5.06821200
W5.06821200Aug 21 '26vs
W7.08732022
W7.08732022Aug 15 '26@
L5.0*9057144
L5.0*9057144Aug 9 '26vs
W5.06212022
W5.06212022Aug 4 '26@
W6.08012100
W6.08012100Nick Lodolo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
W4.09556244
W4.09556244Aug 21 '26@
L3.191210266
L3.191210266Aug 16 '26vs
L5.07323200
L5.07323200Aug 11 '26@
W4.07055044
W4.07055044Jul 11 '26vs
L5.07845322
L5.07845322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Randy Vasquez
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.18.78poor3.09.02.0(1)
at CIN4.18.78poor3.09.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28 '25@
W4.19439244
W4.19439244Nick Lodolo
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP5.00.89elite3.54.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 8 '25@
L5.07922100
L5.07922100Jun 29 '25vs
W5.19557211
W5.19557211home starts5.31.69elite3.34.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16 '26vs
L5.07323200
L5.07323200Jul 11 '26vs
L5.07845322
L5.07845322Jul 5 '26vs
W6.09746211
W6.09746211Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-1 vs CIN this season (4 games).
- SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 5-0 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 3-2 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 6.4 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 7.8 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Randy Vasquez's last 3 starts.
- SDP are 1-1 to the over in Randy Vasquez's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 1-3 vs SDP this season (4 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 3.8 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 1.6 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 4-0 to the over in Nick Lodolo's last 4 starts.
Weather · Hot
97°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph W
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- CIN bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15, 2026-07-30
- SDP — Randy Vasquez: last start: 68 pitches over 5.0 IP
- CIN — Nick Lodolo: 2026-08-21: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
- TREND: CIN — was shut out 5-0 last time out (2026-08-31)
AI Analysis
San Diego's lineup is at 33 wRC+ vs left-handers over their last 6 against a Cincinnati starter with a 7.60 xERA, two forces that cancel and leave the 9.5 total and the -136 price where they belong. Vasquez has averaged only 2.0 strikeouts a start over his last 3 but faces a Reds lineup striking out 25.5% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6, so his 3.5 number is fair, and his outs line at 14.5 matches his recent workload of 62 to 87 pitches. Lodolo's strikeout line at 4.5 is above the 3.0 per start he has managed, but the price on the under has already moved to -140 and the Padres strike out 24.4% of the time vs left-handers over their last 12; his outs under at 15.5 is juiced to -171 against a lineup that may let him go deeper than usual.
TOR @
CLE✓6:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
TOR @
CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
S. Arrighetti R
xERA5.08 (below)ERA9.72 (poor)K%18.2 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs2.8 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs58BB%13.6 (poor)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+115 (above)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%16.4 (elite)HH%36.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+108 (avg)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%15.8 (elite)HH%37.4 (avg)
Gavin Williams R
xERA6.41 (poor)ERA9.53 (poor)K%32.2 (elite)Whiff%35.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%46.9 (poor)Barrel%18.8 (poor)IP/gs3.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs83BB%13.6 (poor)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%14.2 (elite)Whiff%15.3 (elite)HH%35.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+125 (above)K%15.6 (elite)Whiff%17.1 (elite)HH%34.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 3.67 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 2.03 (elite)ERA 2.01 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+154+1.5 (-142)O8.0 (-105)CLE-180-1.5 (+125)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+162+0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-102)CLE-180-0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (+110/-135)1.5 (-115/-115)CLE4.5 (+102/-130)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/US. Arrighetti3.5 (-120 / -105)14.5 (-140 / +105)Gavin Williams6.5 (+122 / -150)17.5 (-139 / +105)
S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs
L4.07945234
L4.07945234Aug 21 '26@
L3.1*6143233
L3.1*6143233Jul 24 '26@
W1.03302233
W1.03302233Jul 18 '26vs
L5.08561411
L5.08561411Jul 8 '26@
L4.09427688
L4.09427688Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26@
W1.16236155
W1.16236155Aug 20 '26vs
W5.296114322
W5.296114322Aug 14 '26vs
L4.19157455
L4.19157455Aug 8 '26@
L5.210273222
L5.210273222Aug 2 '26vs
W5.289101100
W5.289101100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.56.55poor5.55.52.0(2)
at CLE5.03.60good3.05.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20 '26vs
L6.09086066
L6.09086066Apr 20 '26@
W5.09635422
W5.09635422Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.06.56poor5.06.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 24 '26@
W6.09647266
W6.09647266Jun 25 '25vs
W5.18525334
W5.18525334May 3 '25@
W4.010097522
W4.010097522home starts4.84.34avg8.74.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20 '26vs
W5.296114322
W5.296114322Aug 14 '26vs
L4.19157455
L4.19157455Aug 2 '26vs
W5.289101100
W5.289101100Trends · TOR
- TOR are 2-1 vs CLE this season (3 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 0-1 in S. Arrighetti's last 1 starts.
- TOR average 2.0 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-2 vs TOR this season (3 games).
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 5.2 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
89°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph WNW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: small sample: 8.1 IP over 3 starts
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: avg 2.8 IP/gs over his last 3
- CLE — Gavin Williams: avg 3.8 IP/gs over his last 3
- CLE offense: K% 20.4 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 16.4 supports
- TOR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-21
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: last start: 79 pitches over 4.0 IP
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: 2026-07-24: 3 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.28 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 62 pitches over 1.1 IP
Gavin Williams u17.5 Outs (+105)
Williams has averaged 3.8 innings per start over his last 3 — 4.1, 5.2 and 1.1 innings, the last of them ending at 62 pitches — and none of the three reached 18 outs. A 13.6% walk rate, a 46.9% hard-hit rate and an 18.8% barrel rate over that window are why the outings keep ending early, and Toronto is exactly the wrong lineup for it: 126 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 with a 14.2% strikeout rate, a contact-heavy group that runs pitch counts. Cleveland's bullpen has thrown 3.0 innings in the past two days and owns a 2.03 xERA over its last 12, so there is no reason to stretch him. He went 6 innings against Toronto in April, but that was before the current stretch of short outings, and the market is pricing the over as though six innings is his normal night.
NYM @
TBR6:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
NYM @
TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Sean Manaea L
xERA6.27 (poor)ERA7.00 (poor)K%17.7 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%48.3 (poor)Barrel%20.7 (poor)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs94BB%6.3 (good)
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+81 (below)K%16.9 (above)Whiff%18.1 (above)HH%33.9 (below)
L12
wRC+74 (poor)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%32.6 (below)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.19 (good)ERA3.57 (good)K%18.2 (avg)Whiff%27.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs85BB%6.1 (good)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+72 (poor)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%26.4 (below)HH%38.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+91 (below)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 3.42 (good)ERA 3.35 (good)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
TBR
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 3.25 (good)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+110-1.5 (+168)O8.0 (-105)TBR-124-1.5 (+160)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (+108)TBR-128-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-122/-104)1.5 (-145/+114)TBR3.5 (-128/+114)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Manaea4.5 (-109 / -106)17.5 (-182 / +141)Freddy Peralta4.5 (-128 / +110)15.5 (-110 / -102)
Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs
L5.29538166
L5.29538166Aug 21 '26@
L6.09345244
L6.09345244Aug 15 '26vs
W6.19376244
W6.19376244Aug 9 '26@
W7.091113011
W7.091113011Aug 4 '26@
W6.010077522
W6.010077522Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
W6.08142000
W6.08142000Aug 21 '26@
L7.09867155
L7.09867155Aug 16 '26vs
L4.27621322
L4.27621322Aug 10 '26@
W6.09856133
W6.09856133Aug 4 '26@
W3.27139177
W3.27139177SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM6.03.00good6.02.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 2 '25@
W6.010062122
W6.010062122home starts4.14.39avg3.73.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16 '26vs
L4.27621322
L4.27621322Jul 26 '26vs
W4.09336223
W4.09336223Jul 11 '26vs
L4.19263522
L4.19263522Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 5.6 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 5.0 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 3-2 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-2 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 0-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 1 home starts.
- TBR average 5.4 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 2.0 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-1 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 4 starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 1
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: recent opponents high-K: BAL 26%, BAL 26%, DET 26%
AI Analysis
Two lineups going badly — the Mets at 72 wRC+ vs right-handers and Tampa Bay at 81 vs left-handers over their last 6 — hold the total at 8.0 where it belongs, and a 37% rain risk argues against committing to either side of a near-even moneyline. Manaea's strikeout line at 4.5 sits on his 4.7 per start over his last 3 and his outs line at 17.5 costs -182 for the six innings he has been going. Peralta's 4.5 strikeout number is above his 4.0 per start but Tampa Bay's opponent tonight strikes out only 24.0% of the time and his own 27.1% whiff rate over his last 3 argues he gets there; his outs line at 15.5 is fair.
SFG @
PIT6:40 PM · PNC ParkHot
SFG @
PITMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Logan Webb R
xERA5.03 (below)ERA4.91 (below)K%23.1 (good)Whiff%21.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs82BB%6.2 (good)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+65 (poor)K%27.3 (below)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%31.1 (below)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%27.0 (below)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%34.7 (below)
Paul Skenes R
xERA3.99 (avg)ERA2.35 (elite)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs78BB%8.1 (avg)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+106 (avg)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%44.9 (above)
L12
wRC+115 (above)K%25.7 (below)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%46.7 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.56 (good)ERA 3.67 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 3.22 (good)ERA 2.22 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+138+1.5 (-170)O7.5 (+100)PIT-164-1.5 (+146)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+128+0.5 (-122)O3.5 (-128)PIT-160-0.5 (-106)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG3.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (+100/-130)PIT3.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Webb5.5 (+123 / +122)18.5 (+114 / +114)Paul Skenes6.5 (+118 / -139)16.5 (-111 / -106)
Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
L6.09765122
L6.09765122Aug 21 '26@
L2.27026355
L2.27026355Aug 15 '26vs
W6.08074011
W6.08074011Aug 9 '26vs
L8.010024111
L8.010024111Aug 3 '26@
W6.09685100
W6.09685100Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26@
W6.08743000
W6.08743000Aug 19 '26vs
W4.18154433
W4.18154433Aug 11 '26@
L5.06545112
L5.06545112Aug 5 '26@
L5.09362433
L5.09362433Jul 31 '26@
L4.010077455
L4.010077455SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Webb
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.61.61elite10.56.02.0(2)
at PIT6.01.50elite10.07.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5 '25@
W6.0110107011
W6.0110107011Jul 30 '25vs
L5.2109115411
L5.2109115411Paul Skenes
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG—
home starts4.86.29poor7.74.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19 '26vs
W4.18154433
W4.18154433Jul 25 '26vs
L5.1105116255
L5.1105116255Jul 12 '26vs
W5.18273122
W5.18273122Trends · SFG
- SFG are 2-1 vs PIT this season (3 games).
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 2-3 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 5.2 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.2 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 3-2 to the over in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-1 to the over in Logan Webb's last 2 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-2 vs SFG this season (3 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Paul Skenes's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 2.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.8 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 0-5 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-1 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hot
91°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph WSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- PIT bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- SFG — Logan Webb: 2026-08-21: 5 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 20); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.25 ERA equivalent
- SFG — Logan Webb: low-K outing 2026-08-21 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- PIT — Paul Skenes: recent opponents high-K: MIA 26%, DET 26%
AI Analysis
Pittsburgh at 65 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 against a Giants lineup at 106 makes the -164 home price and the 7.5 total both defensible, with no gap large enough to bet. Webb's strikeout line at 5.5 sits on his 5.0 per start over his last 3, and his outs line at 18.5 asks for six full innings from a starter averaging 4.9 — a coin-flip price on a coin-flip proposition. Skenes's 6.5 strikeout number is well above the 4.3 per start he has produced, but the under is already juiced to -139 and San Francisco strikes out 24.2% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6; his outs line at 16.5 matches his 5.1 innings a start.
ATL @
WSN6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHot
ATL @
WSNMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
AJ Smith-Shawver R
xERA4.40 (avg)ERA5.93 (poor)K%15.9 (below)Whiff%20.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs78BB%12.7 (below)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+100 (avg)K%19.4 (above)Whiff%22.6 (avg)HH%30.4 (below)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%19.0 (above)Whiff%21.9 (avg)HH%31.6 (below)
Jake Irvin R
xERA4.64 (below)ERA4.96 (below)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%22.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%51.1 (poor)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs99BB%14.5 (poor)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+119 (above)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%25.1 (below)HH%35.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%40.6 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.12 (good)ERA 2.27 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 6.17 (poor)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-176-1.5 (-110)O10.0 (+100)WSN+150+1.5 (-109)U10.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-160-0.5 (-118)O5.5 (-115)WSN+128+0.5 (-110)U5.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL5.5 (-111/-115)2.5 (-154/+120)WSN4.5 (+114/+116)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAJ Smith-Shawver4.5 (+118 / -146)15.5 (+136 / -157)Jake Irvin4.5 (+120 / -137)15.5 (+122 / -140)
AJ Smith-Shawver · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
W5.09035333
W5.09035333Aug 19 '26@
L4.17535344
L4.17535344Jul 29 '26@
L4.16944222
L4.16944222Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs
W4.19463611
W4.19463611Aug 22 '26@
L6.010446244
L6.010446244Aug 16 '26@
L6.09868344
L6.09868344Aug 11 '26vs
L3.18844255
L3.18844255Aug 5 '26@
W5.18333222
W5.18333222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
AJ Smith-Shawver
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.57.00poor3.55.02.5(2)
at WSN3.021.00poor1.08.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 22 '25@
L3.08218377
L3.08218377May 15 '25vs
W6.08662201
W6.08662201Jake Irvin
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL5.04.80below4.02.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30 '26@
L5.06113255
L5.06113255May 23 '26@
W5.08070100
W5.08070100Apr 20 '26vs
L5.06843034
L5.06843034home starts3.76.43poor5.34.33.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs
W4.19463611
W4.19463611Aug 11 '26vs
L3.18844255
L3.18844255May 18 '26vs
L4.07466123
L4.07466123Trends · ATL
- ATL are 8-3 vs WSN this season (11 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-2 in AJ Smith-Shawver's last 3 starts.
- ATL are 0-2 in AJ Smith-Shawver's last 2 away starts.
- ATL average 4.0 runs/game in AJ Smith-Shawver's last 3 starts.
- ATL average 3.0 runs/game in AJ Smith-Shawver's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-1 to the over in AJ Smith-Shawver's last 2 starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-8 vs ATL this season (11 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Jake Irvin's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 5.6 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 5.6 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 1-4 to the over in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-1 to the over in Jake Irvin's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hot
96°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- WSN bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
- ATL — AJ Smith-Shawver: recent opponents low-K: MIN 14%, LAD 18%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
AI Analysis
A game total of 10.0 already prices in two starters with xERAs of 4.40 and 4.64 over their last 3 and a Washington bullpen at 6.17 ERA over its last 12, so there is no gap left to bet, and Atlanta at -176 is a fair price. Smith-Shawver averages just 3.3 strikeouts a start, but his under at 4.5 costs -146 and his recent totals came against unusually low-strikeout opponents in Minnesota and the Dodgers, so today's number should tick up; his outs line at 15.5 matches the 4.6 innings he has been going. Irvin's strikeout line at 4.5 is live on the surface with 6, 4 and 6 over his last 3, but he has managed only 4.0 per start across three meetings with Atlanta this season, all of them exactly five innings, and a 14.5% walk rate caps the outing.
SEA @
BOS6:45 PM · Fenway ParkRainy
SEA @
BOSMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.70 (good)ERA4.80 (below)K%25.9 (good)Whiff%21.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%56.4 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs81BB%5.2 (good)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+48 (poor)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%26.0 (below)HH%35.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%33.2 (below)
Jedixson Paez R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SEA vs RHP
L6
wRC+84 (below)K%30.7 (poor)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+82 (below)K%27.8 (below)Whiff%23.3 (avg)HH%33.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 5.38 (poor)ERA 8.32 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 4.00 (avg)ERA 4.63 (below)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+106+1.5 (-205)O7.5 (+102)BOS-124-1.5 (+184)U7.0 (+103)
Team Totals
Full Game O/USEA3.5 (-105/-125)BOS3.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryan Woo5.5 (+123 / -150)17.5 (-114 / +100)Jedixson Paez——
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
L4.07655166
L4.07655166Aug 16 '26@
W6.07553122
W6.07553122Aug 11 '26@
L5.09253100
L5.09253100Aug 5 '26vs
W7.09153100
W7.09153100Jul 30 '26@
L5.09185255
L5.09185255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS6.51.38elite7.02.01.5(2)
at BOS6.03.00good8.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 17 '25vs
W7.08661200
W7.08661200Apr 24 '25@
W6.09183122
W6.09183122Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-3 vs BOS this season (4 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA have lost 5 straight.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-4 in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 2.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 2.4 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 1-4 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 0-3 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-1 vs SEA this season (4 games).
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Rainy
63°F, Light Drizzle, Wind 5 mph ENE
APF 102 — Neutral · Rain possible (50%)
Flags · 5
- BOS — Jedixson Paez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SEA bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.38 over its last 12
- SEA — Bryan Woo: last start: 76 pitches over 4.0 IP
- SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-08-26: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.50 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: rain risk 50% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
Jedixson Paez is making his first start of the season with no numbers available and there is a 50% rain risk at Fenway, which is enough to leave the near-even moneyline and the 7.5 total alone even with both lineups cold — Seattle 84 wRC+ and Boston 48 vs right-handers over their last 6. Woo's strikeout line at 5.5 matches the 5.0 per start he has averaged over his last 3, and his outs line at 17.5 asks for nearly six innings from a starter who went 4.0 on 76 pitches last time out, with the rain risk killing any case for the over.
MIL @
CHC✓7:40 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
MIL @
CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Robert Gasser L
xERA4.04 (avg)ERA4.70 (below)K%23.9 (good)Whiff%24.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs87BB%9.9 (avg)
CHC vs LHP
L6
wRC+115 (above)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+146 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.3 (above)HH%39.5 (avg)
Matthew Boyd L
xERA5.59 (poor)ERA6.23 (poor)K%13.9 (below)Whiff%21.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%15.1 (poor)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%9.7 (avg)
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+96 (avg)K%13.1 (elite)Whiff%15.5 (elite)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%16.2 (above)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%33.8 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.19 (elite)ERA 1.13 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 4.15 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+108+1.5 (-180)O10.5 (-109)CHC-125-1.5 (+158)U10.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+106+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (-110)CHC-132-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (-128/+105)2.5 (-105/-125)CHC5.5 (+105/+104)2.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URobert Gasser4.5 (+128 / +130)15.5 (+109 / -145)Matthew Boyd4.5 (+106 / -125)17.5 (-115 / -104)
Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
W5.1*8266211
W5.1*8266211Aug 20 '26vs
W3.27744444
W3.27744444Aug 14 '26@
L6.110278133
L6.110278133Aug 8 '26vs
W4.29437233
W4.29437233Aug 1 '26@
W5.07664211
W5.07664211Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
L6.09453211
L6.09453211Aug 21 '26@
L6.08636245
L6.08636245Aug 15 '26vs
L5.19725377
L5.19725377Aug 9 '26@
W7.09835322
W7.09835322Aug 3 '26vs
W6.29239145
W6.29239145SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.08.02poor2.56.04.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19 '25vs
W5.19036344
W5.19036344Jul 28 '25@
L5.09026555
L5.09026555home starts5.86.24poor3.05.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26vs
L5.19725377
L5.19725377Aug 3 '26vs
W6.29239145
W6.29239145Jul 18 '26vs
W6.09143111
W6.09143111Trends · MIL
- MIL are 4-3 vs CHC this season (7 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in Robert Gasser's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 4.6 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.6 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 1-4 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 0-2 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 3-4 vs MIL this season (7 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 2-3 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 4-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 5.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 7.4 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 2-3 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-2 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph E
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- MIL bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
- MIL — Robert Gasser: 12 days since last start (2026-08-20) news ↗
- MIL — Robert Gasser: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-26
- MIL — Robert Gasser: last start: 77 pitches over 3.2 IP
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: 2026-08-15: 7 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 12); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.75 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
Matthew Boyd u4.5 Ks (-125)
Milwaukee is the hardest lineup on the board to strike out, at 13.1% vs left-handers over their last 6 and 16.2% over their last 12, and Boyd carries a 13.9% K rate with a 4.2% K-BB rate over his last 3 starts, totaling 2, 3 and 5 punchouts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him close to six innings, so the innings are not the reason for the under — the bat-missing is, and the two windows on the Brewers' contact rate agree with each other. He did get 5 in Arizona last time out, but that came against a lineup whiffing far more than this one. The number is set off a starter's workload rather than off a matchup where neither side misses bats.
DET @
MIN✓7:40 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
DET @
MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Troy Melton R
xERA4.64 (below)ERA4.24 (avg)K%14.7 (below)Whiff%20.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%47.5 (poor)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs88BB%5.3 (good)
MIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+124 (above)K%14.2 (elite)Whiff%18.2 (above)HH%38.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%14.7 (elite)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%39.6 (avg)
Connor Prielipp LBULK
Opener: Andrew Morris (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA3.88 (avg)ERA9.37 (poor)K%24.3 (good)Whiff%27.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%46.9 (poor)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs89BB%9.5 (avg)
DET vs LHP
L6
wRC+76 (poor)K%31.3 (poor)Whiff%25.0 (below)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+66 (poor)K%27.5 (below)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 4.25 (avg)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
MIN
xERA 4.62 (below)ERA 6.37 (poor)2d stress Fresh (2.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-112-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (-118)MIN+100+1.5 (-165)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-120-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (-113)MIN-104+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (+114/-145)MIN3.5 (-145/+114)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTroy Melton4.5 (+104 / -131)17.5 (-120 / +100)Connor Prielipp5.5 (+110 / -145)—
Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
L7.08447033
L7.08447033Aug 21 '26@
L5.29437333
L5.29437333Aug 15 '26vs
L4.18748113
L4.18748113Aug 9 '26@
W6.09254101
W6.09254101Aug 4 '26@
W7.09743200
W7.09743200Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
L5.17856133
L5.17856133Aug 21 '26@
L6.09678266
L6.09678266Aug 15 '26vs
L5.09468488
L5.09468488Aug 9 '26@
L5.09675233
L5.09675233Aug 1 '26@
L5.18854433
L5.18854433SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.07.20poor5.08.00.0(1)
at MIN—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 9 '26vs
W5.08858044
W5.08858044Connor Prielipp
IPERAKHBB
vs DET—
home starts5.17.11poor5.74.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26vs
L5.09468488
L5.09468488Jul 26 '26vs
W5.27252111
W5.27252111Jul 8 '26vs
W5.08364233
W5.08364233Trends · DET
- DET are 2-6 vs MIN this season (8 games).
- DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 3.2 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.2 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 1-4 to the over in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 0-2 to the over in Troy Melton's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 6-2 vs DET this season (8 games).
- MIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 0-5 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 2.6 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 5.4 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-1 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph W
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- OPENER: MIN start Andrew Morris (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.1 IP (longest 2.0)), with Connor Prielipp (LHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — DET's offense line is split against LHP, not the opener's.
- MIN bullpen fresh (2.7 IP over 2g)
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: last start: 78 pitches over 5.1 IP
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
Troy Melton u4.5 Ks (-131)
Minnesota puts the ball in play as well as anyone, striking out 14.2% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6 and 14.7% over their last 12, and Melton is a 14.7% K rate arm with a 20.4% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, producing 4, 3 and 4 strikeouts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him the innings, and he still only got 4 in a full 7-inning outing against Tampa Bay last time out. The 5.3% walk rate keeps him in the zone and keeps at-bats short, which is how a starter faces 24 hitters and still finishes with three punchouts. The line is priced for an average starter's strikeout total in a matchup where both the arm and the lineup point well below it.
MIA @
KCR✓7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
MIA @
KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tyler Phillips R
xERA3.26 (good)ERA4.50 (below)K%30.2 (elite)Whiff%31.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%32.3 (good)Barrel%9.7 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.5PC/gs73BB%11.3 (below)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+135 (elite)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%19.4 (above)HH%41.0 (above)
L12
wRC+138 (elite)K%18.5 (above)Whiff%20.6 (above)HH%40.8 (above)
Randy Dobnak R
xERA3.64 (good)ERA1.72 (elite)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%24.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs94BB%10.3 (below)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+90 (below)K%26.5 (below)Whiff%28.2 (poor)HH%27.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+93 (below)K%23.7 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%34.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 4.35 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 3.37 (good)ERA 3.50 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+100-1.5 (+160)O10.0 (-105)KCR-115+1.5 (-185)U9.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-104+0.5 (-144)O5.5 (-104)KCR-120-0.5 (+110)U5.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (+100/-130)KCR4.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Phillips3.5 (-106 / +101)14.5 (-161 / +121)Randy Dobnak3.5 (-104 / -112)15.5 (-101 / -131)
Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 25 '26vs
L4.28473311
L4.28473311Aug 18 '26@
L2.0*4232211
L2.0*4232211Aug 13 '26vs
L5.19266144
L5.19266144Aug 7 '26vs
L4.06145111
L4.06145111Aug 1 '26@
W5.06536022
W5.06536022Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
L6.09256133
L6.09256133Aug 20 '26vs
W4.09646400
W4.09646400Aug 15 '26@
L5.29364200
L5.29364200Aug 9 '26vs
L5.094410144
L5.094410144Aug 4 '26vs
W5.09013311
W5.09013311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Randy Dobnak
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA—
home starts4.73.21good3.06.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20 '26vs
W4.09646400
W4.09646400Aug 9 '26vs
L5.094410144
L5.094410144Aug 4 '26vs
W5.09013311
W5.09013311Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 4.2 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.8 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-2 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 3 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 3-1 in Randy Dobnak's last 4 home starts.
- KCR average 3.2 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 5.5 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
99°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph SSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- MIA bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-18
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: 2026-08-13: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.20 ERA equivalent
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: recent opponents high-K: LAA 28%, PIT 27%
Tyler Phillips o3.5 Ks (-106)
Phillips carries a 30.2% K rate and a 31.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts and has struck out 4, 6 and 7 in outings of 4.0, 5.1 and 4.2 innings — he cleared this number in all three despite never completing six. Kansas City strikes out 19.9% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6, which is the softest part of this bet, and his outs line of 14.5 asks for only five innings, but at his rate four strikeouts arrives inside 17 or 18 batters. His recent totals did come against high-strikeout opponents in the Angels and Pirates, so today's number should land a touch lower — it still sits comfortably above 3.5. The market has set this off his short outings rather than off a bat-missing rate that produces four punchouts before the fifth inning.
ATH @
TEX✓8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
ATH @
TEX✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Brady Basso LBULLPEN GAME
No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TEX all hands
L6
wRC+140 (elite)K%19.6 (above)Whiff%20.3 (above)HH%37.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%41.8 (above)
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA4.36 (avg)ERA4.11 (avg)K%23.2 (good)Whiff%30.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%10.1 (below)
ATH vs LHP
L6
wRC+89 (below)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%46.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%25.5 (below)HH%46.3 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 3.38 (good)ERA 4.32 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 4.93 (below)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+163+1.5 (-136)O7.5 (+102)TEX-188-1.5 (+118)U7.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+156+0.5 (+100)O3.5 (-146)TEX-180-0.5 (-130)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH2.5 (-145/+120)1.5 (+105/-135)TEX4.5 (+114/+116)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrady Basso——MacKenzie Gore6.5 (+106 / -130)17.5 (-117 / -114)
Brady Basso · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 30 '26vs
L1.0*1710000
L1.0*1710000Aug 28 '26vs
L1.0*1622112
L1.0*1622112Aug 26 '26vs
W2.0*1501000
W2.0*1501000Aug 23 '26@
W1.02204033
W1.02204033Aug 18 '26@
L2.13212000
L2.13212000MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
L3.28348444
L3.28348444Aug 21 '26vs
W6.010072100
W6.010072100Aug 15 '26@
W5.29958233
W5.29958233Aug 10 '26@
W5.110394211
W5.110394211Aug 4 '26vs
W6.09943300
W6.09943300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH4.85.00below5.75.73.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26@
W5.29958233
W5.29958233Apr 25 '26vs
W5.010676333
W5.010676333Apr 14 '26@
L4.29453622
L4.29453622home starts5.71.59elite5.34.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21 '26vs
W6.010072100
W6.010072100Aug 4 '26vs
W6.09943300
W6.09943300Jul 24 '26vs
W5.09657233
W5.09657233Trends · ATH
- ATH are 6-5 vs TEX this season (11 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 4 straight.
- ATH are 1-2 in Brady Basso's last 3 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 in Brady Basso's last 3 away starts.
- ATH average 3.3 runs/game in Brady Basso's last 3 starts.
- ATH average 3.3 runs/game in Brady Basso's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 5-6 vs ATH this season (11 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 4-1 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 4-1 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 4.0 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.8 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 2-3 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-1 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 9
- BULLPEN GAME: ATH have no conventional starter — Brady Basso is listed (last 5 outings avg 1.5 IP (longest 2.3)). Expect a parade of relievers; TEX's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
- ATH — Brady Basso: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- ATH bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- TEX bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- ATH — Brady Basso: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-30, 2026-08-28
- ATH — Brady Basso: last start: 22 pitches over 1.0 IP
- ATH — Brady Basso: 2026-08-23: 3 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: 2026-08-26: 4 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.60 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
MacKenzie Gore u17.5 Outs (-114)
Gore has averaged 5.1 innings per start over his last 3 and has faced the Athletics three times this season, going 4.2, 5.0 and 5.2 innings — 14, 15 and 17 outs, every one of them under this number, and each of those took 94 to 106 pitches. His 10.1% walk rate over his last 3 is the mechanism: he issued 4 free passes and was gone after 3.2 innings in Chicago last time out. Texas's bullpen has thrown 8.0 innings over the past two days, which argues for length, but a manager who needs innings still does not get them from a starter this club has never let past the 17th out. The line sits above the depth he has actually reached against this lineup in three tries this year.
CHW @
HOU8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
CHW @
HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Sean Burke R
xERA4.69 (below)ERA6.75 (poor)K%14.3 (below)Whiff%21.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs87BB%17.5 (poor)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+81 (below)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%45.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+76 (poor)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%23.2 (avg)HH%40.2 (above)
Ronel Blanco R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+104 (avg)K%21.3 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%33.6 (below)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%34.5 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 2.94 (elite)2d stress Elevated (10.7 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 3.96 (avg)ERA 5.03 (below)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW-112-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (-104)HOU+102+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-132-0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-118)HOU+106+0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UCHW4.5 (+112/-135)HOU3.5 (-130/+102)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Burke5.5 (-102 / -121)16.5 (-125 / -106)Ronel Blanco4.5 (+100 / -119)14.5 (-133 / +100)
Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
W3.09232822
W3.09232822Aug 21 '26vs
W6.09847044
W6.09847044Aug 16 '26@
W4.17225344
W4.17225344Aug 11 '26vs
L7.09483011
L7.09483011Aug 5 '26@
L4.19145222
L4.19145222Ronel Blanco · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26vs
L4.0*5937155
L4.0*5937155Aug 7 '26@
W4.27814333
W4.27814333Aug 1 '26vs
W4.28245233
W4.28245233Jul 26 '26@
L5.18544355
L5.18544355Jul 20 '26vs
W4.28682344
W4.28682344SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU4.68.80poor7.06.01.0(2)
at HOU3.219.69poor4.08.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25 '26vs
L6.0102104123
L6.0102104123Jun 11 '25@
L3.27348177
L3.27348177Ronel Blanco
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.18.82poor4.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26 '26@
L5.18544355
L5.18544355home starts4.27.50poor6.03.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 1 '26vs
W4.28245233
W4.28245233Jul 20 '26vs
W4.28682344
W4.28682344Trends · CHW
- CHW are 1-3 vs HOU this season (4 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 3-2 in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 4-1 in Sean Burke's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 5.4 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.2 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 4-1 to the over in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Sean Burke's last 3 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 3-1 vs CHW this season (4 games).
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-1 in Ronel Blanco's last 4 starts.
- HOU are 2-0 in Ronel Blanco's last 2 home starts.
- HOU average 5.5 runs/game in Ronel Blanco's last 4 starts.
- HOU average 6.5 runs/game in Ronel Blanco's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-1 to the over in Ronel Blanco's last 4 starts.
- HOU are 2-0 to the over in Ronel Blanco's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- HOU — Ronel Blanco: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CHW bullpen elevated (10.7 IP over 2g)
- HOU bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
- HOU — Ronel Blanco: 25 days since last start (2026-08-07) news ↗
- HOU — Ronel Blanco: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15
- HOU — Ronel Blanco: last start: 78 pitches over 4.2 IP
AI Analysis
Ronel Blanco is making his first start of the season with no numbers available, which takes both his props and any confident read on the side or the 8.5 total off the table, and a 33% rain risk further argues against committing here. Sean Burke's strikeout line at 5.5 sits far above the 3.0 per start he has managed over his last 3, but he struck out 10 against Houston in six innings back in July, which is too recent and too directly on point to bet through; his outs line at 16.5 is reasonable for a starter whose command has wobbled to a 17.5% walk rate.
BAL @
COL✓8:40 PM · Coors FieldHitter Friendly
BAL @
COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Bradish R
xERA6.51 (poor)ERA6.75 (poor)K%16.0 (below)Whiff%18.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.6 (below)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs95BB%10.7 (below)
COL vs RHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%20.4 (avg)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%36.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%39.3 (avg)
Gabriel Hughes R
xERA4.56 (below)ERA9.00 (poor)K%10.3 (poor)Whiff%15.0 (below)
More Stats
HH%27.8 (elite)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs87BB%10.3 (below)
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+90 (below)K%26.1 (below)Whiff%23.2 (avg)HH%40.5 (above)
L12
wRC+82 (below)K%25.6 (below)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.79 (elite)ERA 1.40 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
COL
xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 3.44 (good)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-140-1.5 (+110)O11.0 (-114)COL+120+1.5 (-126)U11.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-135-0.5 (-108)O5.5 (-140)COL+112+0.5 (-120)U5.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL5.5 (-135/+106)2.5 (-135/+105)COL4.5 (-130/+108)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Bradish4.5 (-115 / +101)16.5 (-118 / -112)Gabriel Hughes4.5 (+128 / +133)14.5 (-158 / +120)
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
W4.19149277
W4.19149277Aug 20 '26vs
L5.210058235
L5.210058235Aug 15 '26@
W6.09337422
W6.09337422Aug 8 '26@
L6.09845012
L6.09845012Aug 2 '26vs
L3.05332222
L3.05332222Gabriel Hughes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26@
L5.09537444
L5.09537444Aug 22 '26vs
L5.08624233
L5.08624233Aug 16 '26@
W4.08128177
W4.08128177Aug 10 '26@
L4.08835377
L4.08835377Aug 4 '26vs
L5.17774255
L5.17774255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gabriel Hughes
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL—
home starts5.05.36poor4.74.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs
L5.08624233
L5.08624233Aug 4 '26vs
L5.17774255
L5.17774255Jul 22 '26vs
L5.08855111
L5.08855111Trends · BAL
- BAL are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL have won 4 straight.
- BAL are 2-3 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 2.8 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 5.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 3 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 0-10 in their last 10 home games.
- COL have lost 5 straight.
- COL are 1-4 in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL are 0-4 in Gabriel Hughes's last 4 home starts.
- COL average 4.8 runs/game in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.0 runs/game in Gabriel Hughes's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 3-2 to the over in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Gabriel Hughes's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NE
APF 114 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- COL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: 2026-08-26: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.10 ERA equivalent
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 114)
Gabriel Hughes u4.5 Ks (+133)
Hughes has a 10.3% K rate and a 15.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, with strikeout totals of 2, 2 and 3 in outings of 4.0, 5.0 and 5.0 innings, and his posted outs line of 14.5 means he is not expected to face many more hitters than that today. Baltimore does strike out 26.1% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6, but Hughes has not missed enough bats to convert that into five punchouts in any recent start, and Coors Field flattens the breaking ball he would need to. Getting plus money on a total he has cleared zero times in three tries is the mispricing.
NYY @
LAA9:38 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
NYY @
LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gerrit Cole R
xERA2.53 (elite)ERA2.50 (elite)K%24.7 (good)Whiff%26.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.0 (avg)Barrel%4.0 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs86BB%5.5 (good)
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+90 (below)K%28.3 (poor)Whiff%28.5 (poor)HH%27.8 (poor)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%27.6 (below)Whiff%27.5 (below)HH%32.1 (below)
G. Rodriguez R
xERA2.13 (elite)ERA2.16 (elite)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%27.7 (elite)Barrel%2.1 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%7.3 (avg)
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+91 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+117 (above)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%43.1 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.38 (good)ERA 3.09 (good)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
LAA
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 4.38 (avg)2d stress Fresh (4.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-178-1.5 (-102)O7.5 (-115)LAA+156+1.5 (-110)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-180-0.5 (-130)O4.5 (+112)LAA+156+0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY4.5 (-104/-115)2.5 (+114/-145)LAA3.5 (+120/+124)1.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole6.5 (-102 / -118)17.5 (-182 / +136)G. Rodriguez5.5 (+128 / -147)15.5 (-131 / -101)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27 '26vs
L6.07956133
L6.07956133Aug 20 '26@
W6.09384111
W6.09384111Aug 14 '26@
L6.08755212
L6.08755212Aug 8 '26vs
W7.08296022
W7.08296022Aug 2 '26@
W5.29954311
W5.29954311G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
L5.29247111
L5.29247111Aug 20 '26@
W7.09965202
W7.09965202Aug 14 '26vs
L4.08953233
L4.08953233Aug 9 '26@
L4.08384434
L4.08384434Aug 4 '26@
L7.09863122
L7.09863122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
G. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY—
home starts4.73.80avg5.05.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
L5.29247111
L5.29247111Aug 14 '26vs
L4.08953233
L4.08953233Jul 29 '26vs
L5.09865222
L5.09865222Trends · NYY
- NYY are 2-3 vs LAA this season (5 games).
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 3.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.4 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 1-4 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 0-3 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 3-2 vs NYY this season (5 games).
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-5 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 6.2 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 3.2 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 2-3 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-1 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- LAA bullpen fresh (4.0 IP over 2g)
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: last start: 79 pitches over 6.0 IP
AI Analysis
Two elite arms by xERA — 2.53 and 2.13 over their last 3 — facing two below-average lineups puts the 7.5 total exactly where it belongs, and New York at -178 is a full price for a club hitting 91 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6. Cole's strikeout line at 6.5 sits right on the 6.0 per start he has averaged even with the Angels striking out 28.3% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6, and his outs line at 17.5 is juiced to -182 for the six innings he throws every time. Rodriguez's 5.5 strikeout number matches his 5.0 per start, and his outs line at 15.5 is fair for a 5.6-inning starter.
PHI @
ARI✓9:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
PHI @
ARI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA2.76 (elite)ERA2.33 (elite)K%35.1 (elite)Whiff%33.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%47.7 (poor)Barrel%11.4 (below)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs108BB%7.8 (avg)
ARI vs LHP
L6
wRC+46 (poor)K%22.4 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (above)HH%46.3 (elite)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%19.7 (above)Whiff%19.0 (above)HH%40.5 (above)
E. Rodriguez L
xERA2.10 (elite)ERA0.96 (elite)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%25.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%14.6 (elite)Barrel%2.1 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs100BB%7.0 (good)
PHI vs LHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%15.2 (elite)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%32.8 (below)
L12
wRC+124 (above)K%11.8 (elite)Whiff%17.5 (elite)HH%36.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 2.86 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
ARI
xERA 4.99 (below)ERA 3.77 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-130-1.5 (+125)O7.5 (-112)ARI+118+1.5 (-146)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-140-0.5 (+100)O3.5 (-146)ARI+120+0.5 (-130)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (+110/+116)1.5 (-160/+124)ARI3.5 (+104/-130)1.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJesus Luzardo5.5 (-146 / +125)18.5 (+115 / -138)E. Rodriguez4.5 (+108 / -131)17.5 (-167 / +126)
Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
W7.010491300
W7.010491300Aug 21 '26vs
W5.211095124
W5.211095124Aug 15 '26@
W6.210997211
W6.210997211Aug 9 '26vs
W7.0100124122
W7.0100124122Aug 4 '26vs
W8.09874200
W8.09874200E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
W7.010492300
W7.010492300Aug 21 '26vs
W5.29944200
W5.29944200Aug 15 '26@
W6.09655022
W6.09655022Aug 9 '26vs
W7.011595222
W7.011595222Aug 4 '26vs
L5.2102411057
L5.2102411057SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.76.77poor7.07.02.0(2)
at ARI—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 10 '26vs
L4.28685355
L4.28685355May 2 '25vs
W5.19569122
W5.19569122E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.52.43elite7.55.53.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 21 '25vs
W6.09556300
W6.09556300May 4 '25@
W5.1101105434
W5.1101105434home starts6.40.94elite7.33.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
W7.010492300
W7.010492300Aug 21 '26vs
W5.29944200
W5.29944200Aug 9 '26vs
W7.011595222
W7.011595222Trends · PHI
- PHI are 2-2 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI have won 5 straight.
- PHI are 5-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 4-1 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 6.8 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 5.6 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-1 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-2 vs PHI this season (4 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 5.8 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.4 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 3-2 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- PHI — Jesus Luzardo: last start: 104 pitches over 7.0 IP
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: last start: 104 pitches over 7.0 IP
Jesus Luzardo o5.5 Ks (-146)
Luzardo has struck out exactly 9 in each of his last 3 starts, on a 35.1% K rate and 33.3% whiff rate over that window, and he has gone 6.2, 5.2 and 7.0 innings in them. Arizona strikes out 22.4% of the time vs left-handers over their last 6 with a 46 wRC+ in that window, so the contact quality behind those swings is poor as well, and his posted outs line of 18.5 says the innings are there to work with. He allowed 5 earned in 4.2 innings against this club in April, but he struck out 8 in that outing, which is the half of it that matters here. The market's number sits more than three strikeouts below what he has actually produced in each of his last three times out.
STL @
LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumNeutral Conditions
STL @
LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Michael McGreevy R
xERA3.39 (good)ERA5.51 (poor)K%17.8 (avg)Whiff%21.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs92BB%8.2 (avg)
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+99 (avg)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%28.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%35.1 (avg)
Eric Lauer L
xERA3.33 (good)ERA4.05 (avg)K%22.0 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs83BB%8.5 (avg)
STL vs LHP
L6
wRC+84 (below)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%19.1 (above)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)HH%40.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.45 (avg)ERA 7.02 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 3.20 (good)ERA 3.00 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+150+1.5 (-140)O9.0 (+100)LAD-175-1.5 (+122)U8.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+140+0.5 (-118)O5.5 (+112)LAD-152-0.5 (-110)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (-122/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)LAD4.5 (-115/-105)2.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael McGreevy3.5 (+110 / -133)15.5 (+131 / -170)Eric Lauer3.5 (-142 / +131)16.5 (-128 / -103)
Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs
L5.084310277
L5.084310277Aug 20 '26@
W5.19043233
W5.19043233Aug 15 '26@
W6.010265203
W6.010265203Aug 9 '26vs
W5.210248233
W5.210248233Aug 3 '26@
W4.19154122
W4.19154122Eric Lauer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26@
L2.0*5112211
L2.0*5112211Aug 18 '26@
W5.08766144
W5.08766144Aug 12 '26vs
W6.111264212
W6.111264212Aug 5 '26@
L4.095111066
L4.095111066Jul 29 '26vs
W6.08741100
W6.08741100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.03.00good4.05.51.5(2)
at LAD—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 2 '26vs
W6.08833300
W6.08833300Jun 8 '25vs
L6.010158044
L6.010158044Eric Lauer
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.14.39avg4.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 11 '25@
W4.17244122
W4.17244122home starts6.01.99elite4.33.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12 '26vs
W6.111264212
W6.111264212Jul 29 '26vs
W6.08741100
W6.08741100Jul 6 '26vs
W6.09936233
W6.09936233Trends · STL
- STL are 2-1 vs LAD this season (3 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 4-1 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 9.0 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 7.4 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 4-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-2 vs STL this season (3 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 5-0 in Eric Lauer's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 6.0 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 7.0 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 3-2 to the over in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 0-2 to the over in Eric Lauer's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
68°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- LAD bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
- STL — Michael McGreevy: 2026-08-26: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.65 ERA equivalent
- STL — Michael McGreevy: recent opponents high-K: CIN 25%, BAL 26%
- LAD — Eric Lauer: 14 days since last start (2026-08-18) news ↗
- LAD — Eric Lauer: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-26
- LAD — Eric Lauer: 2026-08-05: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.34 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
Both starters have xERAs near 3.35 over their last 3 despite ugly ERAs, both lineups have cooled — St. Louis 84 wRC+ vs left-handers and the Dodgers 99 vs right-handers over their last 6 — and the 9.0 total plus a -175 Dodgers price already say that. McGreevy's strikeout line at 3.5 sits on his 4.3 per start and his outs line at 15.5 is fair for a 5.4-inning starter. Lauer has thrown once in 14 days, which makes his 3.5 strikeout number priced at -142 and his 16.5 outs line both too uncertain to take a position on.