MLB Game Overviews

TBR @

CLE

1:00 PM · Progressive FieldPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Griffin Jax R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

CLE vs RHP

wRC+116 (above)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%16.8 (elite)BB%9.9 (above)HH%36.0 (avg)

L12

wRC+122 (above)K%18.7 (above)Whiff%18.1 (above)BB%12.4 (elite)HH%37.8 (avg)

Gavin Williams R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

TBR vs RHP

wRC+57 (poor)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (above)BB%2.5 (poor)HH%38.9 (avg)

L12

wRC+85 (below)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (above)BB%5.9 (poor)HH%41.8 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

TBR

xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 3.74 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

CLE

xERA 3.59 (good)ERA 2.76 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTBR+111+1.5 (-202)O6.5 (-118)CLE-130-1.5 (+172)U6.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTBR+114+0.5 (-135)O3.5 (-118)CLE-142-0.5 (+104)U3.5 (-110)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR3.5 (+124/+120)1.5 (+105/-135)CLE3.5 (+104/-130)1.5 (-125/-105)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UGriffin Jax3.5 (-132 / +114)11.5 (-120 / -109)Gavin Williams6.5 (+109 / -130)16.5 (+116 / -101)

Griffin Jax · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 26 '26@

W3.05212000

Sep 20 '26vs

W5.07453200

Sep 15 '26vs

W5.06772000

Sep 9 '26@

W5.06622111

Sep 2 '26vs

L2.26317266

Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 25 '26@

W3.17445444

Sep 20 '26vs

W7.08993100

Sep 14 '26vs

L5.011374322

Sep 6 '26vs

W6.099114322

Sep 1 '26vs

W7.097132101

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Griffin Jax

IPERAKHBB

vs CLE1.00.00elite1.02.00.0(1)

at CLE—

last season · last met 405 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 5 '25vs

L1.01812000

Gavin Williams

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR7.10.63elite6.06.01.5(2)

1 this season, 1 last season · last met 169 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Apr 29 '26vs

W7.29595001

Sep 5 '25@

W7.09537311

home starts6.02.00elite9.03.72.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 20 '26vs

W7.08993100

Sep 14 '26vs

L5.011374322

Sep 6 '26vs

W6.099114322

Trends · TBR

TBR are 6-2 vs CLE this season (8 games).
TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
TBR are 4-1 in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
TBR are 4-1 in Griffin Jax's last 5 away starts.
TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
TBR average 6.6 runs/game in Griffin Jax's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
TBR are 2-3 to the over in Griffin Jax's last 5 starts.
TBR are 1-1 to the over in Griffin Jax's last 2 away starts.

Trends · CLE

CLE are 2-6 vs TBR this season (8 games).
CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 4-1 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE are 4-1 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 3-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE are 1-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

59°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph SE

APF 97 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 7

TBR — Griffin Jax: first start of the season — no stats available yet
CLE — Gavin Williams: first start of the season — no stats available yet
TBR — Griffin Jax: 19 days since last start (2026-09-26) news ↗
TBR — Griffin Jax: last start: 52 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
CLE — Gavin Williams: 20 days since last start (2026-09-25) news ↗
CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 74 pitches over 3.1 IP news ↗
CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-09-25: 4 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 12); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent

MIL @

LAD

8:00 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

TBD

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

LAD

No data

Tyler Glasnow R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

MIL vs RHP

wRC+99 (avg)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%18.1 (above)BB%11.2 (elite)HH%41.8 (above)

L12

wRC+102 (avg)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%20.9 (above)BB%10.3 (above)HH%36.8 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

MIL

xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 1.72 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

LAD

xERA 2.40 (elite)ERA 2.09 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIL+138+1.5 (-156)O7.5 (-105)LAD-155-1.5 (+140)U7.5 (-114)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIL+158+0.5 (-102)O3.5 (-140)LAD-165-0.5 (-128)U3.5 (+108)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL3.5 (+116/-135)1.5 (+100/-125)LAD3.5 (-142/+114)2.5 (+125/-154)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTBD——Tyler Glasnow5.5 (-146 / +121)14.5 (-134 / +105)

Tyler Glasnow · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 24 '26vs

L6.191113233

Sep 18 '26vs

W6.098103222

Sep 12 '26@

L4.09175444

Sep 5 '26vs

W6.09686344

Aug 30 '26@

W7.08562111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tyler Glasnow

IPERAKHBB

vs MIL5.50.82elite5.53.02.0(2)

none this season — 2 from last season · last met 454 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 18 '25vs

L6.08864111

Jul 9 '25@

L5.08552301

home starts6.04.48avg9.74.02.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 24 '26vs

L6.191113233

Sep 18 '26vs

W6.098103222

Sep 5 '26vs

W6.09686344

Trends · MIL

MIL are 7-3 vs LAD this season (10 games).
MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
MIL have won 4 straight.

Over / Under

MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · LAD

LAD are 3-7 vs MIL this season (10 games).
LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
LAD are 3-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
LAD are 3-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 home starts.
LAD average 5.0 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
LAD average 5.2 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

LAD are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
LAD are 2-3 to the over in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
LAD are 2-1 to the over in Tyler Glasnow's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

90°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph W

APF 105 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

MIL — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
LAD — Tyler Glasnow: first start of the season — no stats available yet
MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
LAD — Tyler Glasnow: 21 days since last start (2026-09-24) news ↗
LAD — Tyler Glasnow: 2026-09-12: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.71 ERA equivalent
LAD — Tyler Glasnow: recent opponents low-K: MIA 18%, SDP 19%

Legend · badges & abbreviations

Badges

R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.

Starting pitcher · last 3 starts

xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.

Offense

wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.

Bullpen

2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.

Odds

MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.

Recent-outing table

Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.

Weather and park

APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.