MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 11 Bets · Aug 30

Janson Junk u2.5 Ks (+128)

Junk has struck out exactly 2 batters in each of his last 3 starts on a 9.1% strikeout rate and a 13.3% whiff rate, and one of those outings was against this same Washington club on Aug 23 (2 K in 4.2 innings). Washington has struck out in 18.9% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games and 19.4% over its last 12, so there is no bat-missing help coming from the other side. His outs line at 14.5 points to another sub-five-inning outing, and three strikeouts is more than he has managed in any start this month at a price paying better than even money.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Will Warren u4.5 Ks (+100)

Boston has struck out in 20.6% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games and just 16.8% over its last 12, so the contact is there in both windows. Warren has averaged 4.0 strikeouts per start over his last 3 while lasting only 4.3 innings per outing with a 12.7% walk rate, and across 3 starts against Boston he has managed 3, 2 and 0 — 1.7 per start. His outs line at 15.5 confirms a short outing, which leaves him roughly 18 hitters to find five strikeouts against a lineup that does not give them up, and the market is pricing this as an even proposition.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Tyler Mahle u5.5 Ks (+112)

Mahle has a 20.0% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts with 7, 3 and 4 strikeouts, an average of 4.7 per outing across 5.9 innings. Colorado has struck out in only 19.9% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games, down from 23.0% over its last 12, and across 3 starts against this club Mahle has averaged 4.7 strikeouts — 5, 5 and 4. Six requires his best recent outing repeated against the lineup that has given him the fewest, and the under is the plus-money side of a market that expects the opposite.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Robbie Ray u4.5 Ks (+132)

Tampa Bay has struck out in only 11.9% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games, with a 10.5% whiff rate, and the last-12 figure of 15.8% is barely higher — this lineup puts the ball in play against lefties. Ray's 4, 4 and 5 strikeout totals over his last 3 starts came against New York (29% K rate) and Pittsburgh (30%), opponents that inflate any arm's totals, and his own K rate over that window is a modest 20.6% across 5.1 innings per start. Getting five strikeouts out of roughly 20 hitters who make this much contact is the harder half of this market, yet the under is the plus-money side.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Framber Valdez u4.5 Ks (-147)

Valdez has a 9.9% strikeout rate and a 13.2% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, producing 3, 5 and 0 strikeouts — an average of 2.7 per outing despite going 5.8 innings each time. The Dodgers have struck out in 22.5% of their plate appearances against left-handed pitching over their last 6 games and 22.9% over their last 12, an ordinary rate that does nothing to lift a pitcher who is not missing bats. The juice buys a number he has cleared once in three tries, and rain risk at Comerica only adds to the chance the outing is cut short.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Parker Messick u18.5 Outs (+154)

Messick has averaged 6.1 innings per start over his last 3 — 17, 20 and 18 outs — and 5.2 innings per start across his last 3 at home, so clearing 18.5 requires him to go past six innings, something he has done once in his last six outings. He needed 102, 98 and 94 pitches for those innings, and Kansas City's lineup has posted a 139 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over its last 12 games with a 42.2% hard-hit rate over its last 6, which is not a group that lets a starter cruise. Cleveland's bullpen has a 2.28 xERA over its last 12 games and normal rest, giving no reason to push him for a seventh, yet the market prices this line as a coin flip.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Dustin May u4.5 Ks (+113)

May has a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 19.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, with 6, 1 and 0 strikeouts and just 3.1 innings per outing, including a one-pitch exit in his most recent appearance. Texas has struck out in 20.3% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games, down from 25.1% over its last 12, and is squaring the ball up at a 137 wRC+ on that recent window, which shortens outings rather than lengthening them. His outs line at 14.5 caps him near five innings, and five strikeouts from roughly 20 hitters at his current rate is above anything he has produced in a month.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

M. Liberatore o5.5 Ks (-115)

Pittsburgh has struck out in 30.4% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games and 29.7% over its last 12, with a 30.0% whiff rate on the same recent window — the same profile in both windows. Liberatore carries a 34.9% K rate over his last 3 starts with 6, 9 and 7 strikeouts, and across 3 meetings with Pittsburgh he has averaged 8.0 per start, going 7, 8 and 9. Even his shortest recent outing, 4.0 innings against Baltimore, produced 7 strikeouts, so the six needed here does not require length he has not been getting.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Zac Thornton o3.5 Ks (-120)

Thornton's 2, 7 and 4 strikeout totals over his last 3 starts came against Atlanta (18%), San Diego (18%) and Milwaukee (12%) — three of the lowest strikeout lineups he could have drawn — and he still averaged 4.3 per outing on an 18.6% K rate across 5.7 innings per start. Houston strikes out far more: 21.7% over its last 6 games against left-handed pitching and 29.2% over its last 12. Four strikeouts from roughly 22 hitters is a routine outing for him, and the price treats it as barely better than even.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Yusei Kikuchi u5.5 Ks (-137)

Philadelphia has struck out in just 8.5% of its plate appearances against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games, and 8.6% over its last 12 — the two windows agree, so this is an established contact profile rather than a hot week. Kikuchi has averaged 3.3 strikeouts per start over his last 3 with a 18.5% K rate and only 4.0 innings per outing, and his outs line at 16.5 caps the plate appearances available. Six strikeouts would be nearly double what he has managed in any of those three starts against a lineup that barely swings and misses, and the price still treats this as close to a coin flip.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

Zack Wheeler u17.5 Outs (+130)

Wheeler has gone 5.0, 5.0 and 4.0 innings over his last 3 starts — 15, 15 and 12 outs, none of them reaching this number — while walking 14.7% of the hitters he has faced. His last time out he needed 103 pitches to get 12 outs, and a 43.9% hard-hit rate over that window says the traffic is real. Six full innings is two outs beyond anything he has produced recently, and the market is asking better than 60% for it.

Found at 9:12 AM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

MIA @

WSN✓

12:15 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Janson Junk R

xERA4.26 (avg)ERA2.53 (elite)K%9.1 (poor)Whiff%13.3 (below)

More Stats

HH%30.6 (good)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs55BB%4.5 (elite)

WSN vs RHP

wRC+127 (above)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%29.1 (poor)

L12

wRC+90 (below)K%19.4 (above)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%30.3 (below)

Andrew Alvarez L

xERA5.07 (below)ERA3.52 (good)K%23.8 (good)Whiff%24.2 (good)

More Stats

HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs76BB%9.5 (avg)

MIA vs LHP

wRC+74 (poor)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%31.3 (below)

L12

wRC+81 (below)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%25.3 (below)HH%32.6 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

MIA

xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 4.47 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

WSN

xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 4.88 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIA-113-1.5 (+140)O9.5 (+100)WSN+105+1.5 (-160)U9.0 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIA-110-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-146)WSN-108+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (+112)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (-120/-106)2.5 (+110/-140)WSN4.5 (+108/-135)2.5 (+110/-140)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UJanson Junk2.5 (-160 / +128)14.5 (-112 / -114)Andrew Alvarez4.5 (+133 / -162)15.5 (+112 / -138)

Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 26vs

W1.0*800000

Aug 23vs

W4.26922011

Aug 17@

L5.08828222

Aug 12vs

W6.08124112

Aug 6@

L3.04715122

Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

L4.28165233

Aug 20@

L5.07554311

Aug 14@

L5.27342122

Aug 8vs

W5.17323111

Aug 3@

L6.18153322

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Janson Junk

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN4.86.92poor3.75.71.3(3)

at WSN—

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 23vs

W4.26922011

May 9vs

W6.09467244

Sep 8vs

L4.18638266

Andrew Alvarez

IPERAKHBB

vs MIA4.60.98elite4.52.51.5(2)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 3vs

L4.28254111

Sep 1vs

W5.08141200

home starts4.73.87avg4.04.01.5(2)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

L4.28165233

Aug 8vs

W5.17323111

Trends · MIA

MIA are 8-3 vs WSN this season (11 games).
MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
MIA are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
MIA are 3-2 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.
MIA average 5.4 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
MIA average 5.2 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIA are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
MIA are 3-2 to the over in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
MIA are 3-0 to the over in Janson Junk's last 3 away starts.

Trends · WSN

WSN are 3-8 vs MIA this season (11 games).
WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
WSN are 1-4 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 home starts.
WSN average 2.6 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
WSN average 4.0 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
WSN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
WSN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

83°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph SSW

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

MIA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
WSN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
MIA — Janson Junk: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-26
MIA — Janson Junk: last start: 69 pitches over 4.2 IP
WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)

Janson Junk u2.5 Ks (+128)

COL @

ATL✓

1:35 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Mason Adams R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?

ATL vs RHP

wRC+118 (above)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (below)HH%33.7 (below)

L12

wRC+86 (below)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%23.2 (avg)HH%40.6 (above)

Tyler Mahle R

xERA5.51 (poor)ERA2.04 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%25.6 (good)

More Stats

HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs88BB%4.3 (elite)

COL vs RHP

wRC+111 (avg)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%24.7 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)

L12

wRC+103 (avg)K%23.0 (avg)Whiff%24.5 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

COL

xERA 4.53 (below)ERA 4.17 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

ATL

xERA 3.25 (good)ERA 2.04 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCOL+216+1.5 (-105)O8.5 (-105)ATL-225-1.5 (-114)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCOL+172+0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-128)ATL-220-0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-102)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (+112/-140)1.5 (-115/-115)ATL4.5 (-130/+105)2.5 (-120/-110)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMason Adams3.5 (-125 / +103)14.5 (-135 / +110)Tyler Mahle5.5 (-125 / +112)17.5 (-132 / +104)

Mason Adams · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25@

W4.07553311

Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 23@

W5.09446211

Aug 18@

L6.27636122

Aug 12vs

W6.09374011

Aug 7@

L6.09293200

Aug 1@

L5.29995255

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tyler Mahle

IPERAKHBB

vs COL5.72.62elite4.75.71.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11vs

W7.010445311

Jul 5@

L4.17558034

May 12vs

W6.18854111

home starts6.30.95elite4.74.01.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 12vs

W6.09374011

Jul 27vs

W6.08833200

Jul 11vs

W7.010445311

Trends · COL

COL are 0-5 vs ATL this season (5 games).
COL are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
COL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
COL are 1-0 in Mason Adams's last 1 starts.
COL are 1-0 in Mason Adams's last 1 away starts.
COL average 3.0 runs/game in Mason Adams's last 1 starts.
COL average 3.0 runs/game in Mason Adams's last 1 away starts.

Over / Under

COL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · ATL

ATL are 5-0 vs COL this season (5 games).
ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
ATL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
ATL have won 6 straight.
ATL are 2-2 in Tyler Mahle's last 4 starts.
ATL are 1-0 in Tyler Mahle's last 1 home starts.
ATL average 3.2 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 4 starts.
ATL average 6.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 1 home starts.

Over / Under

ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
ATL are 1-3 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 4 starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

88°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph ESE

APF 102 — Neutral

Flags · 4

COL — Mason Adams: first start of the season — no stats available yet
COL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
ATL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
COL — Mason Adams: last start: 75 pitches over 4.0 IP

Tyler Mahle u5.5 Ks (+112)

BOS @

NYY✓

1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Ranger Suarez L

xERA3.60 (good)ERA3.52 (good)K%13.4 (below)Whiff%18.6 (avg)

More Stats

HH%25.0 (elite)Barrel%2.1 (elite)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs89BB%10.4 (below)

NYY vs LHP

wRC+84 (below)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)

L12

wRC+91 (below)K%26.1 (below)Whiff%25.9 (below)HH%41.0 (above)

Will Warren R

xERA4.69 (below)ERA6.23 (poor)K%19.1 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%61.9 (poor)Barrel%9.5 (avg)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs89BB%12.7 (below)

BOS vs RHP

wRC+62 (poor)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%25.1 (below)HH%33.0 (below)

L12

wRC+118 (above)K%16.8 (above)Whiff%19.3 (above)HH%32.4 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

BOS

xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 2.54 (elite)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)

NYY

xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 2.90 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBOS-116-1.5 (+138)O8.0 (-105)NYY+112+1.5 (-154)U8.0 (-112)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBOS-120-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (+100)NYY-102+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-130)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+116/-145)1.5 (-154/+120)NYY3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-145/+114)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez5.5 (+110 / -137)16.5 (-125 / -105)Will Warren4.5 (-118 / +100)15.5 (-108 / -118)

Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24@

W5.09344411

Aug 18vs

W5.19334244

Aug 12@

L5.08126111

Aug 6vs

W3.07033234

Jul 31@

W4.26524233

Will Warren · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

L5.09747223

Aug 19@

W4.09053222

Aug 12vs

W4.08136455

Aug 5vs

L5.19157133

Jul 31@

W6.28874000

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ranger Suarez

IPERAKHBB

vs NYY5.23.48good6.06.01.0(3)

at NYY5.71.59elite7.06.50.5(2)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 7@

L6.19066011

Apr 22vs

L4.27145244

Jul 26@

W5.210887111

Will Warren

IPERAKHBB

vs BOS4.710.14poor1.78.02.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 26@

L5.29007355

Sep 14@

L5.089210166

Aug 23vs

L4.06937355

home starts4.76.38poor4.06.72.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

L5.09747223

Aug 12vs

W4.08136455

Aug 5vs

L5.19157133

Trends · BOS

BOS are 6-7 vs NYY this season (13 games).
BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
BOS are 4-1 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
BOS average 7.6 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
BOS average 6.0 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
BOS are 3-2 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
BOS are 2-1 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 3 away starts.

Trends · NYY

NYY are 7-6 vs BOS this season (13 games).
NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 3-2 in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
NYY are 1-4 in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
NYY average 5.0 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
NYY average 4.4 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 2-3 to the over in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
NYY are 2-1 to the over in Will Warren's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

79°F, Overcast, Wind 12 mph SSW

APF 103 — Neutral

Flags · 3

BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-08-18: 4 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
NYY — Will Warren: 2026-08-12: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.05 ERA equivalent
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)

Will Warren u4.5 Ks (+100)

SEA @

TOR

1:37 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Logan Gilbert R

xERA3.25 (good)ERA2.81 (elite)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%27.9 (good)

More Stats

HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs99BB%10.4 (below)

TOR vs RHP

wRC+103 (avg)K%14.1 (elite)Whiff%15.6 (elite)HH%39.0 (avg)

L12

wRC+116 (above)K%15.9 (elite)Whiff%17.5 (elite)HH%34.1 (below)

Max Scherzer R

xERA3.18 (good)ERA6.43 (poor)K%14.1 (below)Whiff%21.9 (avg)

More Stats

HH%22.2 (elite)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%15.6 (poor)

SEA vs RHP

wRC+93 (below)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)

L12

wRC+105 (avg)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%33.5 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

SEA

xERA 5.09 (below)ERA 7.51 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

TOR

xERA 3.09 (good)ERA 3.74 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSEA-132-1.5 (+125)O8.0 (-109)TOR+125+1.5 (-142)U8.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSEA-154-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-108)TOR+132+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-120)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)TOR3.5 (-106/-115)1.5 (-130/+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/ULogan Gilbert4.5 (-155 / +128)18.5 (+150 / +148)Max Scherzer4.5 (+114 / -140)15.5 (+136 / -171)

Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24vs

W5.010255222

Aug 19@

W5.010054433

Aug 13@

W6.09574100

Aug 7vs

L6.29564422

Aug 1vs

W7.09665133

Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

L5.09244522

Aug 19@

L4.07315377

Aug 13vs

L5.09243211

Aug 8@

W5.18445022

Aug 2vs

L6.08454111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Logan Gilbert

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR5.71.59elite8.04.01.0(2)

at TOR4.24.29avg9.07.02.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 4vs

W7.19171000

Apr 19@

W4.210297222

Max Scherzer

IPERAKHBB

vs SEA—

home starts5.32.25elite4.33.72.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

L5.09244522

Aug 13vs

L5.09243211

Aug 2vs

L6.08454111

Trends · SEA

SEA are 2-3 vs TOR this season (5 games).
SEA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
SEA are 4-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
SEA are 3-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
SEA average 4.4 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
SEA average 3.6 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
SEA are 2-3 to the over in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
SEA are 2-1 to the over in Logan Gilbert's last 3 away starts.

Trends · TOR

TOR are 3-2 vs SEA this season (5 games).
TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
TOR are 1-4 in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
TOR are 0-5 in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
TOR average 3.4 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
TOR average 2.8 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TOR are 3-2 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
TOR are 1-2 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

71°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph SSW

APF 103 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 3

SEA bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.09 over its last 12
SEA — Logan Gilbert: last start: 102 pitches over 5.0 IP
TOR — Max Scherzer: 2026-08-19: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.70 ERA equivalent

AI Analysis

Toronto at 103 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over its last 6 and Seattle at 93 make this the even matchup the 8.0 total describes, and while Seattle's bullpen carries a 5.09 xERA over its last 12, the -132 price already reflects Gilbert's 3.25 xERA over his last 3. Gilbert's strikeout line of 4.5 is juiced to -155 and sits under his 5.7 per start, while his outs line of 18.5 asks for six-plus innings from a starter averaging 5.3 innings per start — neither side pays. Scherzer's 4.5 strikeout line matches a Toronto-facing Seattle lineup at 25.0% strikeouts and his own 3.0 per start over his last 3, and his outs under at 15.5 is already -171 for a 4.7-inning starter.

KCR @

CLE✓

1:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Seth Lugo R

xERA3.58 (good)ERA6.32 (poor)K%17.6 (avg)Whiff%20.8 (avg)

More Stats

HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%3.7 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs90BB%1.5 (elite)

CLE vs RHP

wRC+97 (avg)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%14.5 (elite)HH%34.4 (below)

L12

wRC+90 (below)K%18.4 (above)Whiff%16.1 (elite)HH%35.7 (avg)

Parker Messick L

xERA1.91 (elite)ERA1.96 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)Whiff%28.1 (elite)

More Stats

HH%21.7 (elite)Barrel%2.2 (elite)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%4.3 (elite)

KCR vs LHP

wRC+104 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%27.3 (below)HH%42.2 (above)

L12

wRC+139 (elite)K%17.1 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%42.7 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

KCR

xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 3.32 (good)2d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)

CLE

xERA 2.28 (elite)ERA 2.42 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalKCR+170+1.5 (-136)O7.5 (-105)CLE-181-1.5 (+120)U7.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalKCR+150+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (+112)CLE-188-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-146)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (+120/+124)1.5 (-105/-125)CLE4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+105/-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo3.5 (-138 / +109)16.5 (-117 / -106)Parker Messick5.5 (-161 / +132)18.5 (+148 / +154)

Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25@

W5.08956111

Aug 19vs

W6.09639055

Aug 14@

W4.28647055

Aug 8vs

W6.09055133

Aug 2@

L5.09935555

Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24@

W6.09443111

Aug 19vs

L6.298106011

Aug 13@

L5.210263222

Aug 7@

W7.09784122

Aug 1vs

L4.19166112

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Seth Lugo

IPERAKHBB

vs CLE4.57.00poor4.55.53.5(2)

at CLE—

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 7vs

L4.010257444

Mar 29vs

W5.08644333

Parker Messick

IPERAKHBB

vs KCR—

home starts5.21.74elite7.35.30.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 19vs

L6.298106011

Aug 1vs

L4.19166112

Jul 21vs

W5.28864012

Trends · KCR

KCR are 5-4 vs CLE this season (9 games).
KCR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
KCR are 4-1 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
KCR are 2-3 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
KCR average 5.6 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
KCR average 3.4 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
KCR are 2-3 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
KCR are 1-2 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 3 away starts.

Trends · CLE

CLE are 4-5 vs KCR this season (9 games).
CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 2-3 in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
CLE are 1-4 in Parker Messick's last 5 home starts.
CLE average 4.0 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CLE are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 2-3 to the over in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
CLE are 1-2 to the over in Parker Messick's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

76°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SW

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 2

KCR bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)

Parker Messick u18.5 Outs (+154)

LAD @

DET✓

1:40 PM · Comerica ParkRainy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Tyler Glasnow R

xERA2.91 (elite)ERA4.63 (below)K%36.7 (elite)Whiff%32.2 (elite)

More Stats

HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs67BB%12.2 (below)

DET vs RHP

wRC+37 (poor)K%25.5 (below)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%42.0 (above)

L12

wRC+80 (below)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)HH%38.3 (avg)

Framber Valdez L

xERA5.27 (poor)ERA5.71 (poor)K%9.9 (poor)Whiff%13.2 (below)

More Stats

HH%47.5 (poor)Barrel%6.6 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs92BB%13.6 (poor)

LAD vs LHP

wRC+76 (poor)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%22.9 (poor)

L12

wRC+92 (below)K%22.9 (avg)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%30.4 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

LAD

xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.38 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

DET

xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 4.36 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalLAD-168-1.5 (+104)O7.5 (+100)DET+162+1.5 (-119)U7.5 (-118)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalLAD-166-0.5 (-110)O3.5 (-138)DET+135+0.5 (-118)U3.5 (+106)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (+110/-130)2.5 (+130/-166)DET2.5 (-145/+116)1.5 (+100/-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTyler Glasnow6.5 (+104 / -120)17.5 (-102 / -112)Framber Valdez4.5 (+118 / -147)17.5 (-138 / +120)

Tyler Glasnow · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25@

L5.08976033

May 6@

W1.01921011

Apr 29vs

L5.29293622

Apr 23@

W8.010591100

Apr 17@

W7.09272211

Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24vs

L6.08408234

Aug 17@

W5.29155445

Aug 12vs

L5.210236544

Aug 6@

W7.09555200

Aug 1@

W7.09669222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Framber Valdez

IPERAKHBB

vs LAD6.06.00poor7.07.02.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 5@

W6.010277244

home starts5.45.00below2.36.03.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24vs

L6.08408234

Aug 12vs

L5.210236544

Jul 26vs

L5.09744323

Trends · LAD

LAD are 1-1 vs DET this season (2 games).
LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
LAD are 3-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
LAD are 4-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 away starts.
LAD average 5.4 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 starts.
LAD average 7.0 runs/game in Tyler Glasnow's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

LAD are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAD are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · DET

DET are 1-1 vs LAD this season (2 games).
DET are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
DET are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
DET are 3-2 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
DET are 1-4 in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
DET average 6.4 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
DET average 3.8 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

DET are 0-10 to the over in their last 10 games.
DET are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
DET are 3-2 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
DET are 1-2 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Rainy

72°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph S

APF 102 — Neutral · Rain possible (31%)

Flags · 5

LAD — Tyler Glasnow: avg 3.9 IP/gs over his last 3
DET bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
LAD — Tyler Glasnow: 2026-05-06: 1 ER in 1.0 IP; the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.43 ERA equivalent
LAD — Tyler Glasnow: low-K outing 2026-05-06 (2 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
WEATHER: rain risk 31% — game delay or conditions may affect performance

Framber Valdez u4.5 Ks (-147)

SDP @

TBR✓

1:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Robbie Ray L

xERA4.16 (avg)ERA2.93 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%28.6 (elite)

More Stats

HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs91BB%12.7 (below)

TBR vs LHP

wRC+89 (below)K%11.9 (elite)Whiff%10.5 (elite)HH%30.6 (below)

L12

wRC+80 (below)K%15.8 (elite)Whiff%15.1 (elite)HH%32.5 (below)

Drew Rasmussen R

xERA3.47 (good)ERA4.50 (below)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (avg)

More Stats

HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs91BB%4.6 (elite)

SDP vs RHP

wRC+89 (below)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%42.1 (above)

L12

wRC+105 (avg)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%22.9 (avg)HH%40.8 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

SDP

xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 1.60 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

TBR

xERA 3.40 (good)ERA 3.80 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSDP+152+1.5 (-155)O7.5 (+105)TBR-163-1.5 (+130)U7.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSDP+144+0.5 (-113)O3.5 (-148)TBR-166-0.5 (-115)U3.5 (+114)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (+114/+116)1.5 (+100/-130)TBR3.5 (-130/+120)2.5 (+124/-160)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/URobbie Ray4.5 (+121 / +132)16.5 (-102 / -122)Drew Rasmussen5.5 (+115 / -136)17.5 (+110 / -128)

Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24vs

L5.19955222

Aug 18@

W6.09143311

Aug 12vs

W4.08442322

Aug 7vs

L5.09227544

Jul 30@

W6.08664111

Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24@

W6.010353011

Aug 19vs

W5.08657255

Aug 12@

W5.08434122

Aug 7@

W7.09182200

Aug 1vs

W6.096104100

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Robbie Ray

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR6.14.43avg5.04.00.0(1)

at TBR6.14.43avg5.04.00.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 1@

L6.110254033

Drew Rasmussen

IPERAKHBB

vs SDP—

home starts6.02.50elite8.04.01.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 19vs

W5.08657255

Aug 1vs

W6.096104100

Jul 26vs

W7.08791100

Trends · SDP

SDP are 0-2 vs TBR this season (2 games).
SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
SDP are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
SDP are 2-3 in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
SDP are 1-0 in Robbie Ray's last 1 away starts.
SDP average 3.0 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
SDP average 5.0 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 1 away starts.

Over / Under

SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
SDP are 1-4 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.

Trends · TBR

TBR are 2-0 vs SDP this season (2 games).
TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
TBR are 4-1 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
TBR average 4.4 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
TBR average 3.6 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
TBR are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TBR are 1-4 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
TBR are 1-2 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Dome

Flags · 4

SDP — Robbie Ray: Whiff% 28.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 20.6 shows
SDP — Robbie Ray: recent opponents high-K: NYM 29%, PIT 30%
TBR — Drew Rasmussen: last start: 103 pitches over 6.0 IP
TBR — Drew Rasmussen: 2026-08-19: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.55 ERA equivalent

Robbie Ray u4.5 Ks (+132)

CHW @

MIN

2:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Anthony Kay LBULK

Opener: Jordan Hicks (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s

xERA3.55 (good)ERA5.06 (below)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%23.0 (good)

More Stats

HH%38.0 (avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%5.8 (good)

MIN vs LHP

wRC+63 (poor)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%27.1 (poor)

L12

wRC+83 (below)K%18.8 (above)Whiff%19.0 (above)HH%29.3 (poor)

Zebby Matthews R

xERA3.27 (good)ERA3.06 (good)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (good)

More Stats

HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%5.8 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs96BB%5.6 (good)

CHW vs RHP

wRC+116 (above)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%31.5 (below)

L12

wRC+105 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%26.9 (below)HH%34.0 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

CHW

xERA 3.71 (good)ERA 3.11 (good)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

MIN

xERA 4.26 (avg)ERA 6.57 (poor)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHW+110-1.5 (+160)O8.5 (-114)MIN-115-1.5 (+168)U8.5 (-103)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHW-102+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-122)MIN-120-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-106)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW4.5 (+110/+112)2.5 (+120/-154)MIN4.5 (+116/-135)2.5 (+110/-140)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UAnthony Kay——Zebby Matthews4.5 (-140 / +123)17.5 (-104 / -115)

Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

W4.29946244

Aug 20vs

L6.09465122

Aug 15@

W5.18646133

Aug 8vs

W6.08346122

Aug 2@

W6.18937100

Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24@

W7.010576111

Aug 18vs

W5.29045111

Aug 12vs

W5.09446244

Aug 7@

W5.08347236

Jul 31@

W5.0101104233

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Anthony Kay

IPERAKHBB

vs MIN6.01.50elite5.05.01.0(1)

at MIN—

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 25vs

W6.09455111

Zebby Matthews

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW5.44.44avg5.05.32.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 25@

L6.08865133

Sep 3vs

L6.08453211

Aug 22@

W4.29348344

home starts5.43.89avg3.04.72.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 18vs

W5.29045111

Aug 12vs

W5.09446244

Jul 24vs

L6.09213322

Trends · CHW

CHW are 6-3 vs MIN this season (9 games).
CHW are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
CHW have won 4 straight.
CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
CHW average 6.0 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW average 6.4 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHW are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CHW are 3-2 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW are 1-2 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 3 away starts.

Trends · MIN

MIN are 3-6 vs CHW this season (9 games).
MIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
MIN have lost 4 straight.
MIN are 5-0 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
MIN are 2-3 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 home starts.
MIN average 6.6 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
MIN average 3.0 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
MIN are 3-2 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
MIN are 0-3 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

82°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph E

APF 107 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 7

OPENER: CHW start Jordan Hicks (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.2 IP (longest 1.7)), with Anthony Kay (LHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — MIN's offense line is split against LHP, not the opener's.
CHW bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
MIN bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
CHW — Anthony Kay: 2026-08-25: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.15 ERA equivalent
MIN — Zebby Matthews: last start: 105 pitches over 7.0 IP
MIN — Zebby Matthews: 2026-08-12: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.51 ERA equivalent
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)

AI Analysis

Minnesota's 63 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over its last 6 games is genuinely poor, but Chicago opening with Jordan Hicks before Anthony Kay puts a bullpen already at 5.0 innings of recent work into the middle of the game, and the +110 price is not far enough from that read to bet. Matthews' strikeout line of 4.5 matches his 5.0 per start over his last 3 and his 5.0 per start across 3 meetings with the White Sox, and his outs line of 17.5 sits on the 5.9 innings per start he has been going. The card posts no props for Kay, and an opener game gives no usable number on him anyway.

TEX @

MIL✓

2:10 PM · American Family FieldRainy, Windy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Kumar Rocker R

xERA3.76 (avg)ERA4.02 (avg)K%19.4 (avg)Whiff%25.8 (good)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%12.5 (below)

MIL vs RHP

wRC+138 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%44.6 (above)

L12

wRC+151 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%49.7 (elite)

Dustin May R

xERA5.40 (poor)ERA7.71 (poor)K%16.7 (below)Whiff%19.0 (avg)

More Stats

HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs3.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs50BB%9.5 (avg)

TEX vs RHP

wRC+137 (elite)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%36.8 (avg)

L12

wRC+83 (below)K%25.1 (below)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

TEX

xERA 4.25 (avg)ERA 5.40 (poor)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)

MIL

xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 1.20 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTEX+151+1.5 (-149)O8.5 (-105)MIL-158-1.5 (+130)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTEX+130+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-115)MIL-164-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-113)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX3.5 (-113/-105)1.5 (-135/+105)MIL4.5 (+100/-115)2.5 (-110/-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker4.5 (-110 / -107)15.5 (+128 / -154)Dustin May4.5 (-130 / +113)14.5 (-159 / +132)

Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24@

W5.29385322

Aug 19vs

L5.09236122

Aug 14@

L5.09434533

Aug 9vs

L3.06957266

Aug 2@

L5.188510233

Dustin May · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 26@

W0.1100000

Aug 19vs

L2.06617277

Aug 12@

L7.08364211

Aug 6vs

W6.09753322

Jul 29vs

W5.07031200

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Dustin May

IPERAKHBB

vs TEX5.25.19below9.05.02.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 2vs

L5.29095233

home starts4.36.23poor3.03.72.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 19vs

L2.06617277

Aug 6vs

W6.09753322

Jul 29vs

W5.07031200

Trends · TEX

TEX are 0-2 vs MIL this season (2 games).
TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
TEX are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
TEX have lost 4 straight.
TEX are 1-4 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
TEX are 3-2 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
TEX average 4.4 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
TEX average 4.8 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

TEX are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
TEX are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
TEX are 3-2 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
TEX are 2-1 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 3 away starts.

Trends · MIL

MIL are 2-0 vs TEX this season (2 games).
MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
MIL have won 4 straight.
MIL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
MIL are 2-1 in Dustin May's last 3 home starts.
MIL average 5.0 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
MIL average 4.0 runs/game in Dustin May's last 3 home starts.

Over / Under

MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
MIL are 2-1 to the over in Dustin May's last 3 starts.

Weather · Rainy, Windy

85°F, Overcast, Wind 17 mph SSW

APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (5%)

Flags · 7

MIL — Dustin May: avg 3.1 IP/gs over his last 3
TEX bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
MIL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g)
MIL — Dustin May: last start: 1 pitches over 0.1 IP
MIL — Dustin May: 2026-08-19: 7 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 32); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.64 ERA equivalent
WEATHER: rain risk 5% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
WEATHER: wind Cross Wind R 17 mph from the SSW

Dustin May u4.5 Ks (+113)

PIT @

STL✓

2:15 PM · Busch StadiumHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Braxton Ashcraft R

xERA3.02 (good)ERA1.17 (elite)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%20.4 (avg)

More Stats

HH%45.8 (poor)Barrel%6.8 (good)IP/gs7.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs85BB%2.6 (elite)

STL vs RHP

wRC+74 (poor)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%41.0 (above)

L12

wRC+82 (below)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%23.4 (avg)HH%41.6 (above)

M. Liberatore L

xERA4.10 (avg)ERA7.63 (poor)K%34.9 (elite)Whiff%28.6 (elite)

More Stats

HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%12.8 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%3.2 (elite)

PIT vs LHP

wRC+66 (poor)K%30.4 (poor)Whiff%30.0 (poor)HH%28.4 (poor)

L12

wRC+73 (poor)K%29.7 (poor)Whiff%27.7 (below)HH%35.1 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

PIT

xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 2.30 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

STL

xERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 6.62 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPIT-113-1.5 (+146)O8.0 (-102)STL+106+1.5 (-170)U7.5 (+102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPIT-125-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-102)STL+102+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-128)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (-145/+118)2.5 (+124/-160)STL3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-145/+114)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UBraxton Ashcraft5.5 (+123 / -150)17.5 (-180 / +148)M. Liberatore5.5 (-115 / -101)16.5 (-133 / +106)

Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24@

W6.09124111

Aug 18vs

W8.08045011

Aug 13@

W9.085103111

Aug 6@

L5.08253134

Aug 1@

W5.06952111

M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

L4.09178188

Aug 19@

L6.010094033

Aug 14@

L5.19562122

Aug 8vs

L5.09439255

Aug 2@

W6.08571100

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Braxton Ashcraft

IPERAKHBB

vs STL5.44.42avg7.04.72.0(3)

at STL6.11.48elite7.04.01.5(2)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 21@

W7.09894211

Apr 28vs

L4.18776366

Aug 28@

L5.27354111

M. Liberatore

IPERAKHBB

vs PIT5.85.20below8.06.01.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 19vs

W4.27797244

May 6vs

W7.09983311

Apr 7@

L6.18978055

home starts4.111.80poor5.08.31.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

L4.09178188

Aug 8vs

L5.09439255

Jul 27vs

L3.26758233

Trends · PIT

PIT are 3-6 vs STL this season (9 games).
PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
PIT are 4-1 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
PIT average 5.2 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
PIT average 5.4 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

PIT are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
PIT are 2-3 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
PIT are 1-2 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 3 away starts.

Trends · STL

STL are 6-3 vs PIT this season (9 games).
STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
STL are 1-4 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
STL are 1-4 in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.
STL average 3.2 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
STL average 3.6 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

STL are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
STL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
STL are 3-2 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
STL are 2-0 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Hot

92°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph S

APF 102 — Neutral

Flags · 4

PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: high-K outing 2026-08-13 (10 Ks vs avg 5.3 over his last 3)
PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: low-K outing 2026-08-24 (2 Ks vs avg 5.3 over his last 3)
STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-08-25: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.01 ERA equivalent
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)

M. Liberatore o5.5 Ks (-115)

HOU @

NYM✓

3:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Ethan Pecko R

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?

NYM vs RHP

wRC+73 (poor)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)

L12

wRC+98 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)

Zac Thornton L

xERA3.76 (avg)ERA3.71 (good)K%18.6 (avg)Whiff%19.7 (avg)

More Stats

HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs89BB%2.9 (elite)

HOU vs LHP

wRC+246 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%27.9 (below)HH%33.3 (below)

L12

wRC+113 (avg)K%29.2 (poor)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

HOU

xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 5.21 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)

NYM

xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 2.81 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalHOU+111+1.5 (-190)O9.0 (-105)NYM-119-1.5 (+162)U9.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalHOU+110+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-146)NYM-135-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (+112)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)NYM4.5 (-106/-120)2.5 (+100/-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UEthan Pecko3.5 (-106 / -120)14.5 (-115 / +110)Zac Thornton3.5 (-120 / +109)15.5 (-124 / -107)

Ethan Pecko · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25@

W4.18815455

Aug 19vs

W3.28943322

Zac Thornton · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

W6.08947011

Aug 18vs

L5.09977133

Aug 12@

L6.08027133

Aug 7@

W5.06334200

Aug 1vs

L4.29426334

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Zac Thornton

IPERAKHBB

vs HOU—

home starts5.14.14avg4.36.71.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25vs

W6.08947011

Aug 18vs

L5.09977133

Aug 1vs

L4.29426334

Trends · HOU

HOU are 1-1 vs NYM this season (2 games).
HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
HOU are 2-0 in Ethan Pecko's last 2 starts.
HOU are 1-0 in Ethan Pecko's last 1 away starts.
HOU average 6.0 runs/game in Ethan Pecko's last 2 starts.
HOU average 9.0 runs/game in Ethan Pecko's last 1 away starts.

Over / Under

HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · NYM

NYM are 1-1 vs HOU this season (2 games).
NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
NYM are 2-3 in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
NYM are 2-3 in Zac Thornton's last 5 home starts.
NYM average 3.2 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
NYM average 4.6 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
NYM are 2-3 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
NYM are 0-3 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

73°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW

APF 101 — Neutral

Flags · 3

HOU — Ethan Pecko: first start of the season — no stats available yet
HOU bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
NYM — Zac Thornton: recent opponents low-K: ATL 18%, SDP 18%, MIL 12%

Zac Thornton o3.5 Ks (-120)

BAL @

ATH

4:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Chris Bassitt R

xERA4.02 (avg)ERA3.06 (good)K%18.9 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (avg)

More Stats

HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs94BB%5.4 (good)

ATH vs RHP

wRC+127 (above)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%28.6 (poor)HH%36.5 (avg)

L12

wRC+111 (avg)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%25.4 (below)HH%35.1 (avg)

Jeffrey Springs L

xERA4.71 (below)ERA5.02 (below)K%8.8 (poor)Whiff%18.6 (avg)

More Stats

HH%27.5 (elite)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%14.7 (poor)

BAL vs LHP

wRC+141 (elite)K%26.5 (below)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%46.1 (elite)

L12

wRC+91 (below)K%27.4 (below)Whiff%25.8 (below)HH%47.2 (elite)

Bullpens · Last 12

BAL

xERA 2.69 (elite)ERA 2.06 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

ATH

xERA 3.53 (good)ERA 4.59 (below)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBAL-140-1.5 (+105)O10.0 (-115)ATH+136+1.5 (-124)U10.0 (-104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBAL-135-0.5 (-113)O5.5 (-118)ATH+122+0.5 (-115)U5.5 (-110)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL5.5 (-111/-115)2.5 (-125/-105)ATH4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (-105/-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UChris Bassitt4.5 (+100 / -123)17.5 (+102 / +105)Jeffrey Springs4.5 (+124 / -146)15.5 (+134 / -175)

Chris Bassitt · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 25@

W6.29956011

Aug 19vs

L5.29568133

Aug 14@

W5.18835322

Jun 3@

L3.05616233

May 28vs

L6.08024111

Jeffrey Springs · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24vs

L4.28937244

Aug 19@

L5.28515322

Jul 31vs

L4.08624522

Jul 26@

L1.13604145

Jul 20@

W5.07826122

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Chris Bassitt

IPERAKHBB

vs ATH5.09.00poor6.07.02.0(1)

at ATH—

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 30vs

W5.08267255

Jeffrey Springs

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL—

home starts4.48.12poor2.36.33.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24vs

L4.28937244

Jul 31vs

L4.08624522

Jun 30vs

L5.19228466

Trends · BAL

BAL are 3-2 vs ATH this season (5 games).
BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
BAL are 2-3 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
BAL are 3-2 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
BAL average 6.4 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
BAL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
BAL are 2-1 to the over in Chris Bassitt's last 3 starts.
BAL are 2-0 to the over in Chris Bassitt's last 2 away starts.

Trends · ATH

ATH are 2-3 vs BAL this season (5 games).
ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
ATH are 1-4 in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.
ATH average 5.4 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
ATH average 6.2 runs/game in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

ATH are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATH are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
ATH are 4-1 to the over in Jeffrey Springs's last 5 starts.
ATH are 2-0 to the over in Jeffrey Springs's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

84°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph WSW

APF 107 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 4

ATH — Jeffrey Springs: Whiff% 18.6 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 8.8 shows
ATH bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
BAL — Chris Bassitt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-22
ATH — Jeffrey Springs: 2026-08-24: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.98 ERA equivalent

AI Analysis

The posted total of 10.0 already accounts for Springs' 4.71 xERA and 14.7% walk rate over his last 3 and for Oakland's 127 wRC+ against right-handers over its last 6, and Baltimore's 141 wRC+ versus lefties over its last 6 sits against just 91 over its last 12, so the moneyline at -140 is priced about right. Bassitt's strikeout line of 4.5 matches his 4.7 per start over his last 3 and his outs line of 17.5 sits right on his 5.9 innings per start, leaving nothing on either. Springs' outs under at 15.5 is already -175 for a 4.8-inning starter, and his strikeout number runs into a Baltimore lineup striking out 26.5% of the time over its last 6, which is the wrong direction for an arm with an 8.8% K rate.

PHI @

LAA✓

4:07 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Zack Wheeler R

xERA4.93 (below)ERA9.00 (poor)K%23.5 (good)Whiff%28.0 (elite)

More Stats

HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%12.2 (below)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%14.7 (poor)

LAA vs RHP

wRC+92 (below)K%29.3 (poor)Whiff%26.6 (below)HH%31.9 (below)

L12

wRC+87 (below)K%28.2 (poor)Whiff%27.7 (below)HH%33.6 (below)

Yusei Kikuchi L

xERA5.06 (below)ERA7.50 (poor)K%18.5 (avg)Whiff%20.9 (avg)

More Stats

HH%48.7 (poor)Barrel%17.9 (poor)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs71BB%7.4 (avg)

PHI vs LHP

wRC+94 (below)K%8.5 (elite)Whiff%15.3 (elite)HH%27.9 (poor)

L12

wRC+103 (avg)K%8.6 (elite)Whiff%15.5 (elite)HH%32.7 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

PHI

xERA 2.83 (elite)ERA 2.52 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

LAA

xERA 2.87 (elite)ERA 3.54 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPHI-186-1.5 (-111)O7.5 (-115)LAA+173+1.5 (-105)U7.5 (-103)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPHI-184-0.5 (-120)O3.5 (-148)LAA+150+0.5 (-108)U3.5 (+114)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (-106/-110)2.5 (+114/-145)LAA2.5 (-142/+114)1.5 (+100/-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UZack Wheeler7.5 (+120 / -134)17.5 (-174 / +130)Yusei Kikuchi5.5 (+120 / -137)16.5 (-110 / -106)

Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24@

L4.010349588

Aug 18vs

W5.09872422

Aug 12@

L5.08456145

Aug 7vs

L5.111667544

Aug 2@

W2.03231000

Yusei Kikuchi · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 23@

L5.08947155

Apr 29@

L2.03512100

Apr 24@

L5.09055255

Apr 18vs

L6.08684100

Apr 13@

L3.18234444

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Yusei Kikuchi

IPERAKHBB

vs PHI5.03.60good8.05.03.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 19@

L5.09185322

home starts5.32.81elite7.33.71.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Apr 18vs

L6.08684100

Apr 7vs

L5.09786144

Sep 24vs

W5.06661111

Trends · PHI

PHI are 2-0 vs LAA this season (2 games).
PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
PHI are 2-3 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
PHI are 2-3 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
PHI average 4.2 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
PHI average 4.6 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
PHI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
PHI are 3-2 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
PHI are 1-2 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 3 away starts.

Trends · LAA

LAA are 0-2 vs PHI this season (2 games).
LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
LAA have lost 6 straight.
LAA are 0-5 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 5 starts.
LAA are 0-2 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 2 home starts.
LAA average 3.8 runs/game in Yusei Kikuchi's last 5 starts.
LAA average 1.5 runs/game in Yusei Kikuchi's last 2 home starts.

Over / Under

LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

90°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph SSW

APF 105 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 2

PHI — Zack Wheeler: last start: 103 pitches over 4.0 IP
LAA — Yusei Kikuchi: 2026-04-24: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent

Yusei Kikuchi u5.5 Ks (-137)

Zack Wheeler u17.5 Outs (+130)

CIN @

CHC

7:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Chase Burns R

xERA2.78 (elite)ERA4.02 (avg)K%32.3 (elite)Whiff%30.6 (elite)

More Stats

HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs87BB%4.6 (elite)

CHC vs RHP

wRC+182 (elite)K%12.8 (elite)Whiff%15.4 (elite)HH%34.0 (below)

L12

wRC+143 (elite)K%19.5 (above)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)

Shota Imanaga L

xERA4.21 (avg)ERA5.68 (poor)K%32.2 (elite)Whiff%34.2 (elite)

More Stats

HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%15.6 (poor)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs85BB%8.5 (avg)

CIN vs LHP

wRC+101 (avg)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%29.8 (poor)

L12

wRC+90 (below)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%30.5 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

CIN

xERA 4.46 (avg)ERA 5.73 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

CHC

xERA 4.58 (below)ERA 4.63 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCIN+125+1.5 (-175)O9.5 (+100)CHC-134-1.5 (+150)U9.0 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCIN+102+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-138)CHC-128-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (+106)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN4.5 (+105/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)CHC4.5 (-120/-104)2.5 (+100/-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UChase Burns6.5 (+128 / +114)14.5 (-185 / +162)Shota Imanaga6.5 (+122 / +120)16.5 (-110 / -120)

Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 24@

L3.26459155

Aug 19vs

W5.010486222

Aug 14vs

W7.09384000

Aug 8@

L5.19666355

Aug 2vs

W6.08892211

Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 23@

W2.07245212

Aug 17vs

W6.096102333

Aug 11@

W4.28656044

Aug 5vs

W5.08968011

Jul 31vs

L6.210164022

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Shota Imanaga

IPERAKHBB

vs CIN5.32.81elite6.35.72.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10@

L5.010257111

May 7vs

W6.099106311

Sep 19@

L5.08344234

home starts5.73.14good7.34.71.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 17vs

W6.096102333

Aug 5vs

W5.08968011

Jul 31vs

L6.210164022

Trends · CIN

CIN are 2-7 vs CHC this season (9 games).
CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.
CIN average 3.6 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
CIN average 4.4 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CIN are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 3-2 to the over in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
CIN are 1-2 to the over in Chase Burns's last 3 away starts.

Trends · CHC

CHC are 7-2 vs CIN this season (9 games).
CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
CHC are 4-1 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
CHC average 8.2 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
CHC average 4.8 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CHC are 4-1 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
CHC are 2-1 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

78°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph ESE

APF 97 — Neutral

Flags · 7

CIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
CHC bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
CIN — Chase Burns: last start: 64 pitches over 3.2 IP
CIN — Chase Burns: 2026-08-24: 5 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 14); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
CHC — Shota Imanaga: last start: 72 pitches over 2.0 IP
CHC — Shota Imanaga: 2026-08-11: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)

AI Analysis

Chicago's 182 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over its last 6 games is a heater off a 143 over its last 12, and Burns' 2.78 xERA over his last 3 makes the total and the -134 home price fair rather than wrong. Burns' 6.5 strikeout line pairs with an outs line of just 14.5, and the Cubs have struck out only 12.8% of the time over their last 6, so neither side of that number is worth a price. Imanaga went 2.0 innings on 72 pitches last time out and his 6.5 strikeout line already reflects a 32.2% K rate that Cincinnati's 19.1% strikeout rate over its last 6 will hold down — both his markets sit where they should.