MLB Game Overviews

Tolle carries a 35.3% K rate and 27.3% Whiff% over his last 3 starts, averaging 8.0 strikeouts per outing with 14, 4 and 6 in those games, and he has worked 6.3 IP per start. Miami swings and misses plenty against left-handers, at a 26.3% Whiff% and 24.0% K rate vs LHP over their last 6, up from 21.7% over their last 12. His outs line at 17.5 has the over juiced to -153, so the market itself expects six innings and roughly 25 batters — at his rate that is seven strikeouts, and getting plus money on the seventh one is the mispricing.

Boston has a 167 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a 13.5% K rate, and the longer window backs it at 138 over their last 12 — this is established form, not a three-game heater. Tyler Phillips has allowed a 47.1% hard-hit rate with a 4.67 xERA over his last 3 starts and has not gone past five and a third at home in any of them, which puts Boston into a Miami bullpen that has run a 4.71 ERA over its last 12 and threw 4.3 relief innings in the past two days. Boston has averaged 6.6 runs over their last 5 games behind this starter, and a number of five runs is priced at plus money against a starter who cannot get through the order a third time.

Scherzer has a 14.5% K rate over his last 3 starts with 4, 4 and 1 strikeouts, averaging 3.0 per outing and 4.8 IP, and his last time out was 73 pitches over four innings. Kansas City makes contact at a 16.7% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 19.0% over their last 12, and they are swinging well at a 142 wRC+ over the last 6, which means traffic rather than quiet innings. His own outs line sits at 15.5 with the under juiced to -167 — the market expects fewer than five innings and roughly 19 or 20 batters, which at his current bat-missing rate is three strikeouts, yet the strikeout market is priced for four.

Glasnow has not started in 111 days and his last time out was 19 pitches over a single inning, so this is a first outing back rather than a settled workload. Even at full strength he averaged 4.9 IP across his last 3 starts with a 13.2% walk rate, and Los Angeles has an elite bullpen behind him at 2.56 xERA over its last 12 games with only 3.0 relief innings used in the past two days. Paying this price buys a short number that requires him to get through five and a third in his first game back, which the pitch count from his last appearance argues strongly against.

Williams has gone 17, 13 and 17 outs in his last 3 starts, needing 102, 91 and 96 pitches to get there, so he has to do something he has not done recently to clear this number. His 12.9% walk rate over those 3 starts is what inflates the pitch counts, and Cleveland has no reason to stretch him with a bullpen carrying a 2.58 xERA and 30.7% K rate over its last 12 and only 4.0 relief innings used in the past two days. His one previous trip to Angel Stadium lasted three innings, and the market is paying plus money on the side that his own recent box scores land on every time.

Holmes has a 7.9% K rate and 13.1% Whiff% over his last 3 starts, striking out 1, 3 and 1 across those outings for an average of 1.7 per start. Arizona is the toughest lineup on the board to miss bats against, at a 14.0% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 15.5% over their last 12, so both windows agree they put the ball in play. Even the 16.5 outs the market gives him only buys about 22 batters, and at his current bat-missing rate that is a two-strikeout afternoon; the price is set as though his one 6-K meeting with Arizona in May is the norm rather than the outlier.

Bradley has recorded 15, 12 and 15 outs in his last 3 starts, averaging 4.7 IP per outing, and the number posted here asks for nearly a full inning more than his deepest recent start. His 13.6% walk rate over those 3 starts is what has been running his pitch counts up — 97, 89 and 88 pitches for those short outings — and Minnesota has a rested bullpen at 3.0 relief innings over the past two days. Sacramento's park plays hot at a 109 factor in 94-degree air, and the market is pricing six innings from a starter who has not finished five and a third since July.

Kirby has struck out 2, 2 and 3 over his last 3 starts on a 10.9% K rate, and he has been getting shorter — 5.0, 4.2 and 3.1 innings, with six earned runs allowed in the most recent one. Philadelphia is the worst possible lineup for a bounce-back, at a 12.9% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and 16.4% over their last 12 alongside a 140 wRC+, so the at-bats end in contact and the innings run long. Getting plus money on four strikeouts or fewer from a pitcher who has not reached four in any of his last three, against a lineup that barely strikes out, is the market pricing his reputation rather than his current stuff.

Nola has struck out 8, 9 and 8 in his last 3 starts on a 35.2% K rate and 35.0% Whiff%, averaging 5.7 IP with a 7.0% walk rate, and those totals came against Toronto at 17% and Minnesota at 15% — lineups that strike out less than today's opponent. Seattle whiffs at 19.0% with a 22.7% K rate vs RHP over their last 6 and is scuffling at an 80 wRC+ over that stretch, which keeps his pitch count workable. Paying this price buys a number two and a half strikeouts below what he has produced in each of his last three starts against tougher contact lineups.