AI Picks · 6 Bets · Aug 27
Gabriel Hughes u3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Hughes has struck out 3, 2 and 2 over his last 3 starts on a 10.9 K% and 15.7 Whiff%, averaging 2.3 per outing and 4.3 IP, with his outs line posted at 15.5. Washington is the wrong lineup to fix that: 17.5 K% vs RHP over its last 6 and 21.2% over its last 12, with an 18.4 Whiff% that gives him nothing to chase. Four strikeouts would be his best total in a month and the price is offering plus money on the outcome that has actually happened in each of his last three.
Found at 7:19 AM ET
NYM +1.5 (+102)
The Mets hit 132 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 134 over their last 12 with a 17.2 K% — the same club that knocked Misiorowski out after 3.2 IP and 4.0 IP in their two meetings this year, holding him to 3.6 IP/gs and 4.0 K/gs. Sean Manaea has gone 6.4 IP per start over his last 3 with a 28.6 K% against a Milwaukee lineup hitting just 79 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 with a 28.2 HH%, and New York's bullpen carries a 2.76 xERA over its last 12. Milwaukee is priced at 67% to win outright yet the run line asks nothing extra for the two-run margin, and a one-run game at Citi Field cashes this ticket.
Found at 7:19 AM ET
J. Misiorowski u8.5 Strikeouts (+101)
Misiorowski has struck out 9, 6 and 6 over his last 3 starts — 7.0 per outing on a 30.0 K% across 6.0 IP per start — so nine demands his best game of the month. The Mets are the hardest lineup on the board to run a strikeout total up against, at a 17.2 K% vs RHP over their last 6 and 20.9% over their last 12, and in two meetings this season he managed 4.0 K/gs while lasting 3.6 innings per start. Even money on the under here prices him for roughly eight and a half punchouts against a contact lineup that has already chased him early twice.
Found at 7:19 AM ET
Y. Yamamoto o6.5 Strikeouts (+118)
Yamamoto has struck out 6, 9 and 9 over his last 3 starts, an 8.0 K/start average built on a 32.4 K% and 28.6 Whiff%, and those totals came against Arizona at a 14% K rate and Milwaukee at 18% — lineups tougher to miss bats against than Atlanta, which strikes out 21.1% vs RHP over its last 6 and 24.3% over its last 12. He has gone 6.0 IP per start over that stretch and threw 107 pitches last time out, so the length to get there is present. The plus price implies he clears seven fewer than 44% of the time, which understates an arm averaging eight against a better strikeout matchup than his recent slate.
Found at 7:19 AM ET
SFG Team Total o3.5 (-122)
San Francisco's lineup carries a 161 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 with a 50.6 HH%, and the longer view backs it up at 134 over the last 12, so this is established form rather than a two-game spike. Jose Cabrera brings a 5.50 xERA and 7.82 ERA over his last 3 with a 3.2 K-BB% and 4.2 IP/gs, and he has not pitched in 50 days, which hands the ball early to an Arizona bullpen carrying a 5.00 xERA over its last 12. The market has this club priced barely above a coin flip to reach four runs against the weakest starter on the board with a 16 mph wind blowing out.
Found at 7:19 AM ET
Jose Cabrera u13.5 Outs (+102)
Cabrera has averaged 4.2 IP over his last 3 starts, going 15, 10 and 13 outs, and his last time out was 74 pitches over 4.1 IP. He has not started in 50 days, so the pitch budget is capped before the game begins, and an 11.1 BB% over his last 3 runs the count up fast against a San Francisco lineup hitting 161 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 with a 50.6 HH%. The number sits above where two of his three most recent outings finished, and it is priced as though the fifth inning is the expectation.
Found at 7:19 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
COL @ 
WSN✓1:05 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
COL @ WSN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gabriel Hughes R
xERA5.56 (poor)ERA11.77 (poor)K%10.9 (poor)Whiff%15.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%32.0 (good)Barrel%6.0 (good)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs85BB%9.4 (avg)
WSN vs RHP
L6
wRC+88 (below)K%17.5 (above)Whiff%18.4 (above)HH%30.4 (below)
L12
wRC+72 (poor)K%21.2 (avg)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%30.0 (below)
Jake Irvin R
xERA4.69 (below)ERA7.63 (poor)K%19.7 (avg)Whiff%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs97BB%9.9 (avg)
COL vs RHP
L6
wRC+108 (avg)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%44.6 (above)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%39.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.80 (below)ERA 3.78 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 3.78 (avg)ERA 5.44 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+111+1.5 (-190)O9.5 (-105)WSN-119-1.5 (+164)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL-102+0.5 (-140)O5.5 (+106)WSN-122-0.5 (+108)U5.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL4.5 (-106/-115)2.5 (+100/-130)WSN4.5 (-125/-102)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGabriel Hughes3.5 (-125 / +112)15.5 (-105 / -108)Jake Irvin4.5 (-120 / +100)16.5 (-126 / +100)
Gabriel Hughes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22vs 
L5.08624233
L5.08624233Aug 16@ 
W4.08128177
W4.08128177Aug 10@ 
L4.08835377
L4.08835377Aug 4vs 
L5.17774255
L5.17774255Jul 29@ 
L5.07626133
L5.07626133Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22@ 
L6.010446244
L6.010446244Aug 16@ 
L6.09868344
L6.09868344Aug 11vs 
L3.18844255
L3.18844255Aug 5@ 
W5.18333222
W5.18333222Jul 30@ 
L5.06113255
L5.06113255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gabriel Hughes
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.01.80elite5.05.01.0(1)
at WSN—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22vs L5.08855111
L5.08855111Jake Irvin
IPERAKHBB
vs COL6.03.72good7.04.00.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 16vs L6.09155133
L6.09155133Apr 20@ W6.18393022
W6.18393022home starts4.08.18poor4.06.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs L3.18844255
L3.18844255May 18vs L4.07466123
L4.07466123May 7vs 
W5.09228144
W5.09228144Trends · COL
- COL are 3-3 vs WSN this season (6 games).
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 1-4 in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-3 in Gabriel Hughes's last 4 away starts.
- COL average 4.8 runs/game in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.2 runs/game in Gabriel Hughes's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 3-2 to the over in Gabriel Hughes's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-1 to the over in Gabriel Hughes's last 3 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 3-3 vs COL this season (6 games).
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 1-4 in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-4 in Jake Irvin's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 5.0 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 5.0 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph S
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- COL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- WSN bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- COL — Gabriel Hughes: recent opponents low-K: ARI 14%, CLE 14%
- WSN — Jake Irvin: last start: 104 pitches over 6.0 IP
- WSN — Jake Irvin: recent opponents low-K: CHC 18%, NYM 17%, MIA 16%
Gabriel Hughes u3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Hughes has struck out 3, 2 and 2 over his last 3 starts on a 10.9 K% and 15.7 Whiff%, averaging 2.3 per outing and 4.3 IP, with his outs line posted at 15.5. Washington is the wrong lineup to fix that: 17.5 K% vs RHP over its last 6 and 21.2% over its last 12, with an 18.4 Whiff% that gives him nothing to chase. Four strikeouts would be his best total in a month and the price is offering plus money on the outcome that has actually happened in each of his last three.
BAL @ 
STL2:15 PM · Busch StadiumNeutral Conditions
BAL @ STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Trevor Rogers L
xERA4.04 (avg)ERA3.71 (good)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%23.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%5.6 (good)
STL vs LHP
L6
wRC+137 (elite)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%24.2 (avg)HH%48.2 (elite)
L12
wRC+141 (elite)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%42.1 (above)
Cooper Hjerpe L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+69 (poor)K%30.9 (poor)Whiff%26.0 (below)HH%44.4 (above)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%27.5 (below)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%47.3 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.41 (elite)ERA 2.21 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 6.22 (poor)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL-114-1.5 (+141)O8.5 (+100)STL+106+1.5 (-170)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-128-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-104)STL+102+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UBAL4.5 (+114/-140)STL3.5 (-120/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers4.5 (-145 / +118)17.5 (-135 / +103)Cooper Hjerpe——
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W7.010366133
W7.010366133Aug 16@ W6.09867122
W6.09867122Aug 10@ L4.07944222
L4.07944222Aug 5vs 
W6.09393022
W6.09393022Jul 29@ 
W6.09468047
W6.09468047Trends · BAL
- BAL are 2-0 vs STL this season (2 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 4-1 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 7.0 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 6.4 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 3-2 to the over in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 2-1 to the over in Trevor Rogers's last 3 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 0-2 vs BAL this season (2 games).
- STL are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- STL have lost 5 straight.
Over / Under
- STL are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph NNW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- STL — Cooper Hjerpe: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- BAL bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- STL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- BAL — Trevor Rogers: last start: 103 pitches over 7.0 IP
- BAL — Trevor Rogers: recent opponents low-K: TBR 12%, TBR 12%
AI Analysis
St. Louis hands the ball to Cooper Hjerpe in his first outing of the season with no track record to price, which takes the side, the total and any prop on him off the table entirely. Trevor Rogers is the only handicappable arm here and both his numbers are fair: 4.5 strikeouts at -145 asks for five against a Cardinals lineup he has never faced, off a 22.2 K% and totals of 4, 6 and 6 over his last 3, and his 17.5 outs line matches the 5.7 IP per start he has been going after a 103-pitch, seven-inning outing last time. St. Louis hitting 137 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 141 over its last 12 makes Baltimore's -114 price a spot to leave alone.
HOU @ 
NYY7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumRainy
HOU @ NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Hayden Wesneski R
xERA2.78 (elite)ERA4.50 (below)K%21.5 (avg)Whiff%27.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs85BB%9.2 (avg)
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%45.7 (elite)
L12
wRC+91 (below)K%27.5 (below)Whiff%25.7 (below)HH%45.4 (elite)
Gerrit Cole R
xERA2.71 (elite)ERA1.89 (elite)K%29.7 (elite)Whiff%25.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.8 (below)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs87BB%4.0 (elite)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+96 (avg)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%38.3 (avg)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%23.5 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.84 (avg)ERA 5.53 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 2.90 (elite)ERA 2.80 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+143+1.5 (-149)O8.0 (-115)NYY-150-1.5 (+130)U8.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU+142+0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-102)NYY-166-0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-120/-110)NYY4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UHayden Wesneski4.5 (+121 / -150)15.5 (+118 / -151)Gerrit Cole5.5 (-113 / -109)17.5 (-165 / +138)
Hayden Wesneski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs 
W5.09141300
W5.09141300Aug 15vs 
L4.08167155
L4.08167155Aug 10@ W7.08345233
W7.08345233Aug 4vs 
W6.07844222
W6.07844222Jul 29@ W5.27947233
W5.27947233Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20@ W6.09384111
W6.09384111Aug 14@ L6.08755212
L6.08755212Aug 8vs W7.08296022
W7.08296022Aug 2@ W5.29954311
W5.29954311Jul 28@ 
W6.09974200
W6.09974200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU—
home starts6.73.15good9.34.70.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W7.08296022
W7.08296022Jul 22vs 
L7.093114033
L7.093114033Jul 17vs 
L6.010384122
L6.010384122Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-3 vs NYY this season (5 games).
- HOU are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 4-1 in Hayden Wesneski's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 2-0 in Hayden Wesneski's last 2 away starts.
- HOU average 5.8 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 6.5 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- HOU are 4-1 to the over in Hayden Wesneski's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 2-0 to the over in Hayden Wesneski's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 3-2 vs HOU this season (5 games).
- NYY are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 4-1 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.4 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 5.2 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 1-4 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-1 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Rainy
71°F, Light Drizzle, Wind 9 mph SE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- HOU bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
- NYY bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- HOU — Hayden Wesneski: 2026-08-15: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.93 ERA equivalent
AI Analysis
A 31% rain risk makes any bet on either starter working deep or piling up strikeouts a bad hold, which removes Gerrit Cole's 5.5 strikeouts and his 17.5 outs line despite the 29.7 K% and 6.3 IP per start he has posted over his last 3. Hayden Wesneski's numbers cut the wrong way for the cheap side: his 4.5 strikeout under and 15.5 outs under both ask him to be quiet against a Yankees lineup striking out 25.0% vs RHP over its last 6, and he threw seven innings at San Francisco two starts back. The total at 8.0 and New York at -150 both land close to where two elite expected-run profiles — 2.78 xERA for Wesneski, 2.71 for Cole over their last 3 — should put them.
KCR @ TOR7:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
KCR @ TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Noah Cameron L
xERA2.35 (elite)ERA1.83 (elite)K%16.4 (below)Whiff%29.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%3.6 (elite)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs100BB%8.2 (avg)
TOR vs LHP
L6
wRC+135 (elite)K%24.0 (below)Whiff%20.3 (above)HH%35.9 (avg)
L12
wRC+110 (avg)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%16.3 (elite)HH%27.1 (poor)
S. Arrighetti R
xERA3.82 (avg)ERA6.75 (poor)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%26.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.2 (elite)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs3.1 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs60BB%17.8 (poor)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+123 (above)K%17.6 (above)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+119 (above)K%19.3 (above)Whiff%20.1 (above)HH%37.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 3.79 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 2.55 (elite)ERA 2.98 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR-106-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (+100)TOR+100+1.5 (-175)U8.0 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR-125-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-114)TOR+106+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)TOR3.5 (-135/+106)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNoah Cameron4.5 (-120 / -102)17.5 (-140 / +112)S. Arrighetti——
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W5.08522300
W5.08522300Aug 16@ W9.011581100
W9.011581100Aug 10@ L5.210126244
L5.210126244Aug 5vs W8.010693111
W8.010693111Jul 30@ L8.09771200
L8.09771200S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21@ L3.1*6143233
L3.1*6143233Jul 24@ W1.03302233
W1.03302233Jul 18vs L5.08561411
L5.08561411Jul 8@ L4.09427688
L4.09427688Jul 3vs L6.07342111
L6.07342111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR6.23.66good3.04.51.5(2)
at TOR6.15.90poor1.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 20vs W6.29853211
W6.29853211Aug 2@ L6.19416144
L6.19416144S. Arrighetti
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.06.00poor7.08.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 14@ L6.010178144
L6.010178144home starts5.74.24avg6.03.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs L5.08561411
L5.08561411Jul 3vs L6.07342111
L6.07342111Jun 20vs L6.09086066
L6.09086066Trends · KCR
- KCR are 1-1 vs TOR this season (2 games).
- KCR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 3-2 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Noah Cameron's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 3.6 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 3.0 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Noah Cameron's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 1-1 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 10
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: avg 3.1 IP/gs over his last 3
- KCR — Noah Cameron: Whiff% 29.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 16.4 shows
- TOR offense: K% 24.0 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 20.3 supports
- KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- TOR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- KCR — Noah Cameron: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-24
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: 34 days since last start (2026-07-24) news ↗
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-21
- TOR — S. Arrighetti: last start: 33 pitches over 1.0 IP
- TREND: KCR — was shut out 3-0 last time out (2026-08-26)
AI Analysis
Kansas City's edge is real but thin and already paid for: Noah Cameron's 2.35 xERA over his last 3 against a Toronto club at 135 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 sits opposite Arrighetti's 3.1 IP per start, and the moneyline at -106 with the F5 at -125 covers that gap. Cameron's props are both stuck in the middle — 4.5 strikeouts against a 16.4 K% with totals of 2, 8 and 2 over his last 3 and only 3.0 per start in two meetings with Toronto, and 17.5 outs at -140 after he needed 85 pitches for five innings last time. Toronto posts no strikeout or outs line on Arrighetti, who has thrown 33 pitches in the last 34 days, so there is nothing to bet on that side.
MIL @ NYM✓7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
MIL @ NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
J. Misiorowski R
xERA2.39 (elite)ERA2.00 (elite)K%30.0 (elite)Whiff%35.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%24.4 (elite)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs96BB%5.7 (good)
NYM vs RHP
L6
wRC+132 (elite)K%17.2 (above)Whiff%19.5 (above)HH%43.1 (above)
L12
wRC+134 (elite)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
Sean Manaea L
xERA5.06 (below)ERA4.19 (avg)K%28.6 (elite)Whiff%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%53.1 (poor)Barrel%22.4 (poor)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%5.2 (good)
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+79 (poor)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%22.3 (avg)HH%28.2 (poor)
L12
wRC+98 (avg)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%25.3 (below)HH%37.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.22 (elite)ERA 1.02 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 2.76 (elite)ERA 2.79 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-210-1.5 (-120)O7.0 (-115)NYM+200+1.5 (+102)U7.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-220-0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-120)NYM+175+0.5 (+100)U3.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (+120/-154)NYM2.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (+135/-175)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ. Misiorowski8.5 (-115 / +101)17.5 (-165 / +154)Sean Manaea4.5 (-155 / +128)17.5 (-102 / -121)
J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W6.09664200
W6.09664200Aug 15@ W6.09865111
W6.09865111Aug 9vs W6.09494133
W6.09494133Aug 2@ L7.083102122
L7.083102122Jul 26vs W5.083121011
W5.083121011Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21@ L6.09345244
L6.09345244Aug 15vs W6.19376244
W6.19376244Aug 9@ W7.091113011
W7.091113011Aug 4@ W6.010077522
W6.010077522Jul 29vs W6.08945222
W6.08945222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM3.66.25poor4.04.52.0(2)
at NYM3.214.06poor2.05.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs W4.06564101
W4.06564101Jul 2@ L3.27225355
L3.27225355Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL4.09.00poor5.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ L4.08756244
L4.08756244home starts6.03.48good4.75.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs W6.19376244
W6.19376244Jul 29vs W6.08945222
W6.08945222Jul 24vs L6.08436211
L6.08436211Trends · MIL
- MIL are 3-2 vs NYM this season (5 games).
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 4.2 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 3.4 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 0-5 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 0-2 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 2-3 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 4-1 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 3-2 in Sean Manaea's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 5.8 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 2-3 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-2 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 12 mph SSE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- MIL bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g)
- NYM bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g)
- NYM — Sean Manaea: recent opponents high-K: PIT 31%, WSN 38%
NYM +1.5 (+102)
The Mets hit 132 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 134 over their last 12 with a 17.2 K% — the same club that knocked Misiorowski out after 3.2 IP and 4.0 IP in their two meetings this year, holding him to 3.6 IP/gs and 4.0 K/gs. Sean Manaea has gone 6.4 IP per start over his last 3 with a 28.6 K% against a Milwaukee lineup hitting just 79 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 with a 28.2 HH%, and New York's bullpen carries a 2.76 xERA over its last 12. Milwaukee is priced at 67% to win outright yet the run line asks nothing extra for the two-run margin, and a one-run game at Citi Field cashes this ticket.
J. Misiorowski u8.5 Strikeouts (+101)
Misiorowski has struck out 9, 6 and 6 over his last 3 starts — 7.0 per outing on a 30.0 K% across 6.0 IP per start — so nine demands his best game of the month. The Mets are the hardest lineup on the board to run a strikeout total up against, at a 17.2 K% vs RHP over their last 6 and 20.9% over their last 12, and in two meetings this season he managed 4.0 K/gs while lasting 3.6 innings per start. Even money on the under here prices him for roughly eight and a half punchouts against a contact lineup that has already chased him early twice.
LAD @ ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions
LAD @ ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.28 (elite)ERA1.50 (elite)K%32.4 (elite)Whiff%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs104BB%8.1 (avg)
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%25.3 (below)HH%39.4 (avg)
L12
wRC+60 (poor)K%24.3 (below)Whiff%21.9 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Chris Sale L
xERA2.77 (elite)ERA3.00 (good)K%32.4 (elite)Whiff%26.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%45.6 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs102BB%2.8 (elite)
LAD vs LHP
L6
wRC+145 (elite)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%17.3 (elite)HH%32.3 (below)
L12
wRC+96 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)Whiff%19.1 (above)HH%40.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 3.73 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.20 (good)ERA 3.20 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD+100-1.5 (+188)O6.5 (-120)ATL-114+1.5 (-205)U6.5 (+104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD+100+0.5 (-160)O3.5 (-102)ATL-124-0.5 (+122)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD3.5 (+122/-140)1.5 (+105/-135)ATL3.5 (+112/-135)1.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UY. Yamamoto6.5 (+118 / -150)18.5 (+130 / -159)Chris Sale7.5 (+130 / +120)18.5 (+151 / -200)
Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21vs W6.110795122
W6.110795122Aug 14vs W6.09794211
W6.09794211Aug 8@ W5.210763300
W5.210763300Aug 1vs 
L8.09634133
L8.09634133Jul 25@ W6.010055311
W6.010055311Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 21@ L6.09468022
L6.09468022Aug 14vs L6.010895011
L6.010895011Aug 8@ L6.010385233
L6.010385233Jul 29@ W6.09492000
W6.09492000Jul 23vs W6.098115133
W6.098115133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.00.00elite6.01.02.0(1)
at ATL6.00.00elite6.01.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 2@ W6.09161200
W6.09161200Chris Sale
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.03.75avg6.04.50.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 8@ L7.010275023
L7.010275023Apr 1@ L5.08754033
L5.08754033home starts6.31.89elite8.74.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs L6.010895011
L6.010895011Jul 23vs W6.098115133
W6.098115133Jul 17vs 
W7.08962000
W7.08962000Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-4 vs ATL this season (5 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 5.8 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-3 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-1 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 4-1 vs LAD this season (5 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 1-4 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 1.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 7.8 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 2-1 to the over in Chris Sale's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
86°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph SSE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- LAD offense: K% 22.2 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 17.3 supports
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: last start: 107 pitches over 6.1 IP
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: recent opponents low-K: ARI 14%, MIL 18%
Y. Yamamoto o6.5 Strikeouts (+118)
Yamamoto has struck out 6, 9 and 9 over his last 3 starts, an 8.0 K/start average built on a 32.4 K% and 28.6 Whiff%, and those totals came against Arizona at a 14% K rate and Milwaukee at 18% — lineups tougher to miss bats against than Atlanta, which strikes out 21.1% vs RHP over its last 6 and 24.3% over its last 12. He has gone 6.0 IP per start over that stretch and threw 107 pitches last time out, so the length to get there is present. The plus price implies he clears seven fewer than 44% of the time, which understates an arm averaging eight against a better strikeout matchup than his recent slate.
ARI @ SFG✓9:45 PM · Oracle ParkWindy
ARI @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jose Cabrera R
xERA5.50 (poor)ERA7.82 (poor)K%14.3 (below)Whiff%15.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs72BB%11.1 (below)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+161 (elite)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)HH%50.6 (elite)
L12
wRC+134 (elite)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%24.8 (avg)HH%47.4 (elite)
Landen Roupp R
xERA4.43 (avg)ERA4.41 (avg)K%13.3 (below)Whiff%25.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%26.9 (elite)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89BB%16.0 (poor)
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+71 (poor)K%14.2 (elite)Whiff%15.0 (elite)HH%32.7 (below)
L12
wRC+89 (below)K%17.4 (above)Whiff%18.0 (above)HH%40.2 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 5.00 (below)ERA 4.57 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 3.52 (good)2d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-110-1.5 (+152)O8.0 (-105)SFG-106+1.5 (-175)U8.0 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-105-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-106)SFG-110+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI3.5 (-140/+112)1.5 (-145/+114)SFG3.5 (-122/-104)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJose Cabrera3.5 (-104 / -122)13.5 (-136 / +102)Landen Roupp4.5 (+115 / -138)16.5 (-103 / -122)
Jose Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8@ L4.17424244
L4.17424244Jul 3vs L3.16336333
L3.16336333Jun 27@ L5.08047244
L5.08047244Jun 21vs L5.06233000
L5.06233000Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 20@ L5.19025434
L5.19025434Aug 14vs L5.29155344
L5.29155344Aug 8vs L5.18532511
L5.18532511Aug 2@ L4.29966455
L4.29966455Jul 28vs L3.28414344
L3.28414344SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.46.14poor4.76.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 30@ L2.28445666
L2.28445666May 25vs L5.09377124
L5.09377124May 19@ L6.09137011
L6.09137011home starts4.56.00poor3.03.73.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs L5.29155344
L5.29155344Aug 8vs L5.18532511
L5.18532511Jul 28vs L3.28414344
L3.28414344Trends · ARI
- ARI are 8-1 vs SFG this season (9 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 0-4 in Jose Cabrera's last 4 starts.
- ARI are 0-2 in Jose Cabrera's last 2 away starts.
- ARI average 3.0 runs/game in Jose Cabrera's last 4 starts.
- ARI average 3.0 runs/game in Jose Cabrera's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 1-8 vs ARI this season (9 games).
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 0-5 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 2.0 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.0 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 2-1 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 3 starts.
- SFG are 1-1 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Windy
72°F, Overcast, Wind 18 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- SFG — Landen Roupp: Whiff% 25.8 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 13.3 shows
- ARI bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g)
- SFG bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g)
- ARI — Jose Cabrera: 50 days since last start (2026-07-08) news ↗
- ARI — Jose Cabrera: last start: 74 pitches over 4.1 IP
- ARI — Jose Cabrera: recent opponents low-K: TBR 16%, MIL 18%
- WEATHER: wind Blowing Out 18 mph from the WNW
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)
SFG Team Total o3.5 (-122)
San Francisco's lineup carries a 161 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 with a 50.6 HH%, and the longer view backs it up at 134 over the last 12, so this is established form rather than a two-game spike. Jose Cabrera brings a 5.50 xERA and 7.82 ERA over his last 3 with a 3.2 K-BB% and 4.2 IP/gs, and he has not pitched in 50 days, which hands the ball early to an Arizona bullpen carrying a 5.00 xERA over its last 12. The market has this club priced barely above a coin flip to reach four runs against the weakest starter on the board with a 16 mph wind blowing out.
Jose Cabrera u13.5 Outs (+102)
Cabrera has averaged 4.2 IP over his last 3 starts, going 15, 10 and 13 outs, and his last time out was 74 pitches over 4.1 IP. He has not started in 50 days, so the pitch budget is capped before the game begins, and an 11.1 BB% over his last 3 runs the count up fast against a San Francisco lineup hitting 161 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 with a 50.6 HH%. The number sits above where two of his three most recent outings finished, and it is priced as though the fifth inning is the expectation.