MLB Game Overviews

Williams has averaged 3.8 innings per start over his last 3 — 4.1, 5.2 and 1.1 innings, the last of them ending at 62 pitches — and none of the three reached 18 outs. A 13.6% walk rate, a 46.9% hard-hit rate and an 18.8% barrel rate over that window are why the outings keep ending early, and Toronto is exactly the wrong lineup for it: 126 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 6 with a 14.2% strikeout rate, a contact-heavy group that runs pitch counts. Cleveland's bullpen has thrown 3.0 innings in the past two days and owns a 2.03 xERA over its last 12, so there is no reason to stretch him. He went 6 innings against Toronto in April, but that was before the current stretch of short outings, and the market is pricing the over as though six innings is his normal night.

Milwaukee is the hardest lineup on the board to strike out, at 13.1% vs left-handers over their last 6 and 16.2% over their last 12, and Boyd carries a 13.9% K rate with a 4.2% K-BB rate over his last 3 starts, totaling 2, 3 and 5 punchouts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him close to six innings, so the innings are not the reason for the under — the bat-missing is, and the two windows on the Brewers' contact rate agree with each other. He did get 5 in Arizona last time out, but that came against a lineup whiffing far more than this one. The number is set off a starter's workload rather than off a matchup where neither side misses bats.

Minnesota puts the ball in play as well as anyone, striking out 14.2% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6 and 14.7% over their last 12, and Melton is a 14.7% K rate arm with a 20.4% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, producing 4, 3 and 4 strikeouts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him the innings, and he still only got 4 in a full 7-inning outing against Tampa Bay last time out. The 5.3% walk rate keeps him in the zone and keeps at-bats short, which is how a starter faces 24 hitters and still finishes with three punchouts. The line is priced for an average starter's strikeout total in a matchup where both the arm and the lineup point well below it.

Phillips carries a 30.2% K rate and a 31.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts and has struck out 4, 6 and 7 in outings of 4.0, 5.1 and 4.2 innings — he cleared this number in all three despite never completing six. Kansas City strikes out 19.9% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6, which is the softest part of this bet, and his outs line of 14.5 asks for only five innings, but at his rate four strikeouts arrives inside 17 or 18 batters. His recent totals did come against high-strikeout opponents in the Angels and Pirates, so today's number should land a touch lower — it still sits comfortably above 3.5. The market has set this off his short outings rather than off a bat-missing rate that produces four punchouts before the fifth inning.

Gore has averaged 5.1 innings per start over his last 3 and has faced the Athletics three times this season, going 4.2, 5.0 and 5.2 innings — 14, 15 and 17 outs, every one of them under this number, and each of those took 94 to 106 pitches. His 10.1% walk rate over his last 3 is the mechanism: he issued 4 free passes and was gone after 3.2 innings in Chicago last time out. Texas's bullpen has thrown 8.0 innings over the past two days, which argues for length, but a manager who needs innings still does not get them from a starter this club has never let past the 17th out. The line sits above the depth he has actually reached against this lineup in three tries this year.

Sean Burke has struck out 2, 4 and 3 over his last 3 starts, a 14.3 K% with a 21.3 Whiff% and a K-BB% of -3.2 driven by a 17.5 BB% that has him averaging 4.4 IP per start. His outs line at 16.5 says the market expects barely five innings, and 5.5 strikeouts over that many innings would be his best rate outing by a wide margin. Houston's 22.1 K% vs RHP over its last 6 is the one thing arguing up, but even at that rate the number needs 18-19 batters faced with better swing-and-miss than he has shown in any of his last 3; the juice buys a number sitting two full strikeouts above his recent output.

Blanco struck out 4, 4 and 1 across his last 3 starts, a 13.3 K% with a 19.8 Whiff% — and he has not started in 25 days, working out of the bullpen on August 15 in between, with his last start capped at 78 pitches over 4.2 innings. His outs line at 14.5 says the market itself expects under five innings, and Chicago's 20.2 K% vs RHP over their last 6 is ordinary, not the kind of swing-and-miss lineup that manufactures strikeouts for a contact-inducing arm. Houston's bullpen being stretched at 8.3 innings over two days is the argument for him going deeper, but the layoff and the 78-pitch cap put a ceiling on that. The number is set for a pitcher who misses bats, and nothing in his last three outings does.

Hughes has a 10.3% K rate and a 15.0% whiff rate over his last 3 starts, with strikeout totals of 2, 2 and 3 in outings of 4.0, 5.0 and 5.0 innings, and his posted outs line of 14.5 means he is not expected to face many more hitters than that today. Baltimore does strike out 26.1% of the time vs right-handers over their last 6, but Hughes has not missed enough bats to convert that into five punchouts in any recent start, and Coors Field flattens the breaking ball he would need to. Getting plus money on a total he has cleared zero times in three tries is the mispricing.

Luzardo has struck out exactly 9 in each of his last 3 starts, on a 35.1% K rate and 33.3% whiff rate over that window, and he has gone 6.2, 5.2 and 7.0 innings in them. Arizona strikes out 22.4% of the time vs left-handers over their last 6 with a 46 wRC+ in that window, so the contact quality behind those swings is poor as well, and his posted outs line of 18.5 says the innings are there to work with. He allowed 5 earned in 4.2 innings against this club in April, but he struck out 8 in that outing, which is the half of it that matters here. The market's number sits more than three strikeouts below what he has actually produced in each of his last three times out.