AI Picks · 6 Bets · Sep 3
SFG Team Total o3.5 (-128)
SFG @ PIT · 12:35 PM ET
San Francisco is at 130 wRC+ over their last 6 vs RHP and 143 over their last 12, elite in both windows, and they face a staffing plan built out of relief innings: Lake Bachar opens after averaging 1.9 IP over his last five outings, with Mlodzinski behind him carrying a 4.70 xERA and last two starts of 2.1 IP with 4 ER and 3.0 IP with 4 ER. Mlodzinski also worked out of the bullpen on Sep 2, and the Pittsburgh pen is already at 9.3 relief innings over the past two days, so the middle innings come from tired arms in a 90-degree PNC Park. The counter is San Francisco's 3.0 runs per game average on the road behind this starter, but that is a four-start sample against an offense hitting at this level in both recent windows. Four runs is priced near a coin flip against a bullpen game the Giants are equipped to run up.
Found at 4:44 AM ET
Luis Castillo u15.5 Outs (-122)
CHW @ HOU · 2:10 PM ET
Castillo is averaging 3.8 IP per start over his last 3 and has not reached the fifth inning in any of them — 4.2 IP, 2.2 IP and 4.0 IP, the last one on just 75 pitches. His 7.49 xERA and 49.1 HH% over that window explain why the hook comes early: eight hits allowed in each of two of those three outings. Houston's 60 wRC+ over their last 6 vs RHP is the one thing that could buy him length, but he was pulled at 75 pitches with a cold Minnesota lineup on Aug 28 and he lasted 4.8 IP per start across three career meetings with Houston. Laying juice buys a number his own recent starts have never touched.
Found at 4:44 AM ET
Brandon Young u4.5 Ks (+126)
BOS @ BAL · 7:15 PM ET
Young is carrying a 14.5 K% with a 16.5 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, and the strikeout totals match: 3, 3 and 4, never more than four. Boston strikes out at 23.8% over their last 6 vs RHP, up from 20.1% over their last 12, which is the one thing pushing his number up — but even lifting his rate several points against them leaves roughly four punchouts across the 22-23 hitters an outs line of 17.5 implies. He went 7.0 innings on 91 pitches in Baltimore's last time out and still only got four. Plus money on a pitcher whose bat-missing profile projects under four strikeouts is the mispricing.
Found at 4:44 AM ET
Michael Wacha o5.5 Ks (+118)
MIA @ KCR · 7:40 PM ET
Wacha has a 25.7 K% with a 24.1 Whiff% and a 1.4 BB% over his last 3, and the totals are climbing — 3, 6 and 10 strikeouts, the last of those over 8.0 innings on 103 pitches. Miami is the right lineup for it: 25.8 K% over their last 6 vs RHP with a 28.0 Whiff% behind it, both up from 22.3% and 24.3% over their last 12, so the swing-and-miss is real rather than a sequencing artifact. The outs line of 18.5 is the argument against — the market expects him back under six innings after that 103-pitch outing — but with almost no walks he faces 24 hitters in six innings and needs one strikeout per inning at a lineup missing better than a quarter of its swings. Plus money on a number his rate clears in an ordinary start is the value.
Found at 4:44 AM ET
Jack Perkins u15.5 Outs (+124)
ATH @ SEA · 9:40 PM ET
Perkins has not completed more than five innings in any of his last three starts — 3.0 IP on 70 pitches, 5.0 IP on 97, and 5.0 IP on 80 — so 15 outs or fewer has been the outcome every time out. A 17.5 BB% over those last 3 is what caps him: he walked four in 5.0 innings against Baltimore on Aug 29 and his pitch count climbs faster than his innings do. Seattle's 28.4 K% over their last 6 vs RHP does give him a path to quick innings, but even his cleanest recent outing ended at exactly 15 outs. The market has this as a coin flip when his own recent workload says the fifth inning is his ceiling.
Found at 4:44 AM ET
Tarik Skubal u8.5 Ks (-157)
STL @ LAD · 10:10 PM ET
Skubal's last three strikeout totals are 7, 11 and 7, and the 11 came against Pittsburgh at a 34% team K rate with Detroit at 32% behind it — his recent numbers were built on the two most strikeout-prone lineups he could draw. St. Louis is the opposite: 21.7 K% over their last 6 vs LHP with a 16.9 Whiff% that does not support even that, so the contact quality is there to hold the count down, and their 150 wRC+ over the last 6 vs LHP means traffic and longer innings rather than free outs. Over six innings against 24-25 hitters he projects around seven punchouts, and clearing 8.5 has happened once in his last three against far easier strikeout matchups. The juice buys a number that requires his best outing against the worst lineup he has faced for it.
Found at 4:44 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
SFG @
PIT✓12:35 PM · PNC ParkHot
SFG @
PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Blade Tidwell R
xERA4.02 (avg)ERA7.20 (poor)K%19.1 (avg)Whiff%13.3 (below)
More Stats
HH%26.2 (elite)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs85BB%12.7 (below)
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+106 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%24.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+102 (avg)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%23.6 (avg)HH%35.5 (avg)
C. Mlodzinski RBULK
Opener: Lake Bachar (RHP) — stats below are the bulk arm’s
xERA4.70 (below)ERA6.75 (poor)K%19.1 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs9.3 IP/gsH/gs14.0PC/gs47BB%2.1 (elite)
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+130 (elite)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%18.6 (above)HH%37.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+143 (elite)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.43 (good)ERA 4.09 (avg)2d stress Stressed (11.7 IP/2g)
PIT
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 2.82 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+140+1.5 (-157)O9.0 (-101)PIT-158-1.5 (+132)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+120+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-122)PIT-150-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/USFG3.5 (-128/+100)PIT4.5 (+100/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBlade Tidwell4.5 (+128 / -160)14.5 (-140 / +115)C. Mlodzinski——
Blade Tidwell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs
L5.010047166
L5.010047166Aug 22 '26@
L5.29373200
L5.29373200Aug 16 '26vs
L4.16313566
L4.16313566Aug 10 '26vs
L5.29664111
L5.29664111Aug 4 '26@
L5.010036122
L5.010036122C. Mlodzinski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 2 '26vs
L3.0*3020000
L3.0*3020000Aug 29 '26@
W3.1*5021001
W3.1*5021001Aug 23 '26@
L3.0*6145033
L3.0*6145033Aug 17 '26vs
L3.05938144
L3.05938144Aug 12 '26@
L2.15915344
L2.15915344SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
C. Mlodzinski
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.03.00good1.07.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 8 '26@
L6.07417022
L6.07417022home starts3.013.50poor2.07.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17 '26vs
L3.05938144
L3.05938144Aug 7 '26vs
L3.06317155
L3.06317155Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-2 vs PIT this season (5 games).
- SFG are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 0-5 in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 0-2 in Blade Tidwell's last 2 away starts.
- SFG average 4.4 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.0 runs/game in Blade Tidwell's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 4-1 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-1 to the over in Blade Tidwell's last 2 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 2-3 vs SFG this season (5 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 4.0 runs/game in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.2 runs/game in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 to the over in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-0 to the over in C. Mlodzinski's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hot
90°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- OPENER: PIT start Lake Bachar (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.9 IP (longest 3.0)), with C. Mlodzinski (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — SFG's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- SFG bullpen stressed (11.7 IP over 2g)
- PIT bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g)
- SFG — Blade Tidwell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-28
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: 17 days since last start (2026-08-17) news ↗
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-02, 2026-08-29
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: last start: 59 pitches over 3.0 IP
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: recent opponents high-K: NYM 27%, MIA 26%
SFG Team Total o3.5 (-128)
San Francisco is at 130 wRC+ over their last 6 vs RHP and 143 over their last 12, elite in both windows, and they face a staffing plan built out of relief innings: Lake Bachar opens after averaging 1.9 IP over his last five outings, with Mlodzinski behind him carrying a 4.70 xERA and last two starts of 2.1 IP with 4 ER and 3.0 IP with 4 ER. Mlodzinski also worked out of the bullpen on Sep 2, and the Pittsburgh pen is already at 9.3 relief innings over the past two days, so the middle innings come from tired arms in a 90-degree PNC Park. The counter is San Francisco's 3.0 runs per game average on the road behind this starter, but that is a four-start sample against an offense hitting at this level in both recent windows. Four runs is priced near a coin flip against a bullpen game the Giants are equipped to run up.
TOR @
CLE1:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
TOR @
CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jose Soriano R
xERA3.65 (good)ERA5.60 (poor)K%19.5 (avg)Whiff%20.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%5.5 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs95BB%6.5 (good)
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+121 (above)K%19.6 (above)Whiff%14.8 (elite)HH%32.0 (below)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%15.1 (elite)HH%37.5 (avg)
Tanner Bibee R
xERA3.73 (good)ERA3.00 (good)K%17.9 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%47.4 (poor)Barrel%5.3 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs95BB%7.7 (avg)
TOR vs RHP
L6
wRC+96 (avg)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%21.1 (avg)HH%33.6 (below)
L12
wRC+101 (avg)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%36.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 3.38 (good)ERA 4.17 (avg)2d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
CLE
xERA 2.13 (elite)ERA 2.06 (elite)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR-108-1.5 (+158)O8.0 (-105)CLE-107+1.5 (-185)U8.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR-110-0.5 (+118)O4.5 (-102)CLE-106+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-132/+114)1.5 (-145/+114)CLE3.5 (-122/-104)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJose Soriano4.5 (+134 / +125)17.5 (+102 / -128)Tanner Bibee3.5 (-142 / +113)17.5 (-175 / +145)
Jose Soriano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs
W7.09465233
W7.09465233Aug 23 '26@
L5.010077355
L5.010077355Aug 18 '26@
W5.29129033
W5.29129033Aug 12 '26vs
W6.09044211
W6.09044211Aug 7 '26@
W4.29434312
W4.29434312Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs
L6.09357211
L6.09357211Aug 22 '26@
W6.09665122
W6.09665122Aug 16 '26vs
L6.09637333
L6.09637333Aug 11 '26@
L6.19645256
L6.19645256Aug 5 '26vs
L5.298104034
L5.298104034SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jose Soriano
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.54.05avg5.54.53.5(2)
at CLE6.00.00elite2.04.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 30 '25@
W6.09624400
W6.09624400Apr 4 '25vs
L5.19095355
L5.19095355Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.53.27good5.04.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 26 '25vs
L6.09673023
L6.09673023May 4 '25@
W5.08635223
W5.08635223home starts5.73.66good6.06.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs
L6.09357211
L6.09357211Aug 16 '26vs
L6.09637333
L6.09637333Aug 5 '26vs
L5.298104034
L5.298104034Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-2 vs CLE this season (5 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 4-1 in Jose Soriano's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-2 in Jose Soriano's last 4 away starts.
- TOR average 5.6 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 5.2 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 4-1 to the over in Jose Soriano's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 3-0 to the over in Jose Soriano's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-3 vs TOR this season (5 games).
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-4 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 2.6 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.8 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
88°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph WNW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- TOR bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g)
- TOR — Jose Soriano: low-K outing 2026-08-18 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- TREND: CLE — was shut out 11-0 last time out (2026-09-02)
AI Analysis
Both starters sit in the same range — Soriano at 3.65 xERA and Bibee at 3.73 over their last 3 — and with the moneyline at a pick'em and the total at 8.0, neither the side nor the number is out of line with Cleveland's 121 wRC+ over their last 6 vs RHP against Toronto's 96. Soriano's 4.5 strikeouts is close to fair against a Cleveland lineup at 19.6 K% and a very low 14.8 Whiff% over their last 6, but he has posted 7 and 6 in his last two starts, and his 17.5 outs line matches the 5.9 IP per start he goes. Bibee has thrown exactly 6.0 innings in each of his last three, which puts his 17.5 outs number at a coin flip priced -175, and his 3.5 strikeouts is right on the 4.7 per start he has averaged.
CHW @
HOU✓2:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
CHW @
HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Luis Castillo R
xERA7.49 (poor)ERA8.74 (poor)K%8.1 (poor)Whiff%20.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%49.1 (poor)Barrel%9.4 (avg)IP/gs3.8 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs85BB%4.8 (elite)
HOU vs RHP
L6
wRC+60 (poor)K%22.7 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%38.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+78 (poor)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%21.5 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)
Hunter Brown R
xERA3.03 (good)ERA2.08 (elite)K%26.8 (good)Whiff%20.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.9 (below)Barrel%4.7 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs98BB%12.7 (below)
CHW vs RHP
L6
wRC+78 (poor)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%18.7 (above)HH%34.5 (below)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%24.6 (avg)HH%35.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 3.20 (good)2d stress Normal (5.7 IP/2g)
HOU
xERA 4.81 (below)ERA 6.08 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+138+1.5 (-156)O8.5 (-105)HOU-155-1.5 (+131)U8.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+150+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-106)HOU-184-0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-108/-115)1.5 (-115/-115)HOU4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULuis Castillo4.5 (+112 / -136)15.5 (+105 / -122)Hunter Brown6.5 (-108 / -115)17.5 (-119 / -111)
Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@
W4.07518144
W4.07518144Aug 22 '26vs
L2.28038144
L2.28038144Aug 17 '26@
L4.29918134
L4.29918134Aug 12 '26vs
W7.0104101200
W7.0104101200Aug 6 '26@
L4.07156155
L4.07156155Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@
W6.2102105111
W6.2102105111Aug 22 '26vs
L5.210147311
L5.210147311Aug 16 '26vs
L5.09053522
L5.09053522Aug 11 '26@
L5.08945333
L5.08945333Aug 5 '26vs
L6.09383233
L6.09383233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Luis Castillo
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU4.86.21poor5.35.72.0(3)
at HOU5.64.82below6.06.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 14 '26@
W5.210864333
W5.210864333Apr 11 '26vs
W3.191310177
W3.191310177Jul 18 '25vs
W6.210073200
W6.210073200May 25 '25@
L6.011469133
L6.011469133Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.52.08elite8.03.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25 '26@
W7.09072000
W7.09072000May 3 '25@
W6.09894333
W6.09894333home starts5.43.33good5.74.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs
L5.210147311
L5.210147311Aug 16 '26vs
L5.09053522
L5.09053522Aug 5 '26vs
L6.09383233
L6.09383233Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-4 vs HOU this season (6 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 in Luis Castillo's last 3 away starts.
- CHW average 6.6 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 7.7 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-2 to the over in Luis Castillo's last 4 starts.
- CHW are 1-1 to the over in Luis Castillo's last 2 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 4-2 vs CHW this season (6 games).
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 1-4 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-4 in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 2.6 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.4 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 1-4 to the over in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-2 to the over in Hunter Brown's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
- CHW — Luis Castillo: avg 3.8 IP/gs over his last 3
- CHW — Luis Castillo: Whiff% 20.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 8.1 shows
- CHW — Luis Castillo: last start: 75 pitches over 4.0 IP
- CHW — Luis Castillo: recent opponents low-K: CHC 13%, MIN 13%
- HOU — Hunter Brown: last start: 102 pitches over 6.2 IP
- HOU — Hunter Brown: recent opponents high-K: SEA 28%, NYM 27%
- TREND: CHW — was shut out 2-0 last time out (2026-09-02)
Luis Castillo u15.5 Outs (-122)
Castillo is averaging 3.8 IP per start over his last 3 and has not reached the fifth inning in any of them — 4.2 IP, 2.2 IP and 4.0 IP, the last one on just 75 pitches. His 7.49 xERA and 49.1 HH% over that window explain why the hook comes early: eight hits allowed in each of two of those three outings. Houston's 60 wRC+ over their last 6 vs RHP is the one thing that could buy him length, but he was pulled at 75 pitches with a cold Minnesota lineup on Aug 28 and he lasted 4.8 IP per start across three career meetings with Houston. Laying juice buys a number his own recent starts have never touched.
BOS @
BAL✓7:15 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHot
BOS @
BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jake Bennett L
xERA3.40 (good)ERA3.71 (good)K%27.9 (good)Whiff%29.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below)Barrel%14.9 (below)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs83BB%2.9 (elite)
BAL vs LHP
L6
wRC+131 (elite)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%20.1 (above)HH%37.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+104 (avg)K%26.6 (below)Whiff%22.7 (avg)HH%40.4 (above)
Brandon Young R
xERA5.02 (below)ERA3.78 (avg)K%14.5 (below)Whiff%16.5 (below)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs86BB%7.2 (avg)
BOS vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%23.7 (avg)HH%36.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%20.1 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)HH%33.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 4.93 (below)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
BAL
xERA 2.65 (elite)ERA 1.13 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-130-1.5 (+132)O8.5 (-102)BAL+115+1.5 (-150)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-132-0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-114)BAL+106+0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UBOS4.5 (+104/-125)BAL3.5 (-122/-104)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Bennett4.5 (-136 / +110)16.5 (-110 / -120)Brandon Young4.5 (+122 / +126)17.5 (-106 / -120)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26@
W6.08373000
W6.08373000Aug 23 '26vs
W7.08467134
W7.08467134Aug 14 '26@
L4.08265144
L4.08265144Aug 8 '26vs
L5.18855344
L5.18855344Aug 2 '26@
W5.28846233
W5.28846233Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@
W7.09145111
W7.09145111Aug 22 '26vs
W5.28436322
W5.28436322Aug 17 '26@
L4.08238144
L4.08238144Aug 11 '26@
W6.010446312
W6.010446312Aug 6 '26vs
L4.19846233
L4.19846233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jake Bennett
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.25.19below4.09.00.0(1)
at BAL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 22 '26vs
W5.28349033
W5.28349033Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.25.19below5.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 24 '26vs
W5.29357133
W5.29357133home starts4.85.59poor4.05.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs
W5.28436322
W5.28436322Aug 6 '26vs
L4.19846233
L4.19846233Jul 31 '26vs
W5.29455244
W5.29455244Trends · BOS
- BOS are 5-5 vs BAL this season (10 games).
- BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-2 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 5.2 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.2 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-1 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 5-5 vs BOS this season (10 games).
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 3.8 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 3.6 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 0-3 to the over in Brandon Young's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
93°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph W
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- BOS bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
- BOS — Jake Bennett: 2026-08-14: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.93 ERA equivalent
- BAL — Brandon Young: 2026-08-17: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.37 ERA equivalent
- BAL — Brandon Young: recent opponents low-K: TBR 14%, TBR 14%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
Brandon Young u4.5 Ks (+126)
Young is carrying a 14.5 K% with a 16.5 Whiff% over his last 3 starts, and the strikeout totals match: 3, 3 and 4, never more than four. Boston strikes out at 23.8% over their last 6 vs RHP, up from 20.1% over their last 12, which is the one thing pushing his number up — but even lifting his rate several points against them leaves roughly four punchouts across the 22-23 hitters an outs line of 17.5 implies. He went 7.0 innings on 91 pitches in Baltimore's last time out and still only got four. Plus money on a pitcher whose bat-missing profile projects under four strikeouts is the mispricing.
MIL @
CHC7:15 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
MIL @
CHCMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.67 (elite)ERA1.35 (elite)K%24.3 (good)Whiff%23.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%44.0 (below)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs95BB%4.3 (elite)
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+196 (elite)K%13.2 (elite)Whiff%17.6 (elite)HH%34.3 (below)
L12
wRC+163 (elite)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%19.8 (above)HH%35.9 (avg)
Kevin Gausman R
xERA3.43 (good)ERA4.41 (avg)K%26.5 (good)Whiff%28.7 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs94BB%7.3 (avg)
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+133 (elite)K%29.3 (poor)Whiff%21.7 (avg)HH%45.2 (elite)
L12
wRC+141 (elite)K%23.9 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%48.0 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 2.96 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
CHC
xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 5.88 (poor)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-108-1.5 (+152)O8.5 (-102)CHC-105+1.5 (-179)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-114-0.5 (+125)O4.5 (-102)CHC-110+0.5 (-164)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (+114/-145)2.5 (+124/-160)CHC3.5 (-135/+108)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Henderson5.5 (-113 / -111)17.5 (-109 / -118)Kevin Gausman5.5 (+104 / -120)17.5 (-125 / +102)
Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs
W7.09171011
W7.09171011Aug 22 '26vs
W6.010045211
W6.010045211Aug 16 '26@
W7.09363111
W7.09363111Aug 10 '26@
L6.19175133
L6.19175133Aug 4 '26vs
W6.08384122
W6.08384122Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs
W5.010276255
W5.010276255Aug 24 '26@
W7.09463100
W7.09463100Aug 18 '26vs
W4.18657233
W4.18657233Aug 13 '26@
L4.29377166
L4.29377166Aug 7 '26@
W7.09644122
W7.09644122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kevin Gausman
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.03.00good6.55.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 14 '26@
W5.09756333
W5.09756333Aug 30 '25vs
L7.09684011
L7.09684011home starts4.85.66poor5.37.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs
W5.010276255
W5.010276255Aug 18 '26vs
W4.18657233
W4.18657233Aug 1 '26vs
W5.29449111
W5.29449111Trends · MIL
- MIL are 6-3 vs CHC this season (9 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in Logan Henderson's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 4.4 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.2 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 1-4 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-1 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 3-6 vs MIL this season (9 games).
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-0 in Kevin Gausman's last 3 home starts.
- CHC average 6.8 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 12.3 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 2-2 to the over in Kevin Gausman's last 4 starts.
- CHC are 1-1 to the over in Kevin Gausman's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph N
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- MIL offense: K% 29.3 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 21.7 supports
- MIL bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g)
- CHC bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
- CHC — Kevin Gausman: last start: 102 pitches over 5.0 IP
- CHC — Kevin Gausman: 2026-08-29: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.29 ERA equivalent
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
AI Analysis
Milwaukee at 133 wRC+ over their last 6 vs RHP and Chicago at 196 over the same window are two lineups the market has already accounted for in a pick'em moneyline and an 8.5 total, and Henderson's 2.67 xERA over his last 3 is the one thing keeping that number down. Henderson's strikeout line at 5.5 pulls in two directions — his 24.3 K% over his last 3 against a Cubs lineup fanning just 13.2% over their last 6 vs RHP — and his outs line at 17.5 is right on the six innings he has thrown in each of his last three. Gausman's 5.5 strikeouts is fair for an arm averaging 6.0 per start whose 102 pitches over 5.0 innings last time out caps the length, and his outs number at 17.5 already sits above his 5.4 IP per start.
MIA @
KCR✓7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
MIA @
KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA3.29 (good)ERA3.79 (avg)K%12.2 (below)Whiff%19.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%2.9 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs98BB%4.9 (elite)
KCR vs RHP
L6
wRC+120 (above)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (above)HH%39.0 (avg)
L12
wRC+133 (elite)K%18.2 (above)Whiff%20.5 (above)HH%39.2 (avg)
Michael Wacha R
xERA2.85 (elite)ERA2.25 (elite)K%25.7 (good)Whiff%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%37.7 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%1.4 (elite)
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%25.8 (below)Whiff%28.0 (poor)HH%32.1 (below)
L12
wRC+101 (avg)K%22.3 (avg)Whiff%24.3 (avg)HH%34.7 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.23 (good)ERA 4.53 (below)2d stress Elevated (8.3 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 3.24 (good)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-116-1.5 (+142)O9.0 (-110)KCR+100+1.5 (-161)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-112-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-128)KCR-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (-113/-110)2.5 (+110/-140)KCR4.5 (+110/-138)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USandy Alcantara3.5 (-142 / +118)18.5 (-108 / -115)Michael Wacha5.5 (+118 / -145)18.5 (+120 / -159)
Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26@
L6.09438144
L6.09438144Aug 24 '26vs
L7.010266211
L7.010266211Aug 19 '26@
L6.09718133
L6.09718133Aug 14 '26@
L7.010323411
L7.010323411Aug 8 '26vs
W7.010883100
W7.010883100Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@
W8.0103104000
W8.0103104000Aug 22 '26vs
W7.09663111
W7.09663111Aug 17 '26vs
W5.07936044
W5.07936044Aug 11 '26@
L6.29657033
L6.29657033Aug 6 '26vs
L5.29413311
L5.29413311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR6.06.00poor2.08.02.0(1)
at KCR—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18 '25vs
W6.09728244
W6.09728244Michael Wacha
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA6.01.50elite1.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 19 '25@
L6.07813111
L6.07813111home starts5.73.14good3.34.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs
W7.09663111
W7.09663111Aug 17 '26vs
W5.07936044
W5.07936044Aug 6 '26vs
L5.29413311
L5.29413311Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-0 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 1-4 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-4 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 2.8 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 1.8 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-2 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 3 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 0-2 vs MIA this season (2 games).
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 3-2 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 3-2 in Michael Wacha's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 4.4 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 4.0 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
99°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph S
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- MIA bullpen elevated (8.3 IP over 2g)
- KCR — Michael Wacha: last start: 103 pitches over 8.0 IP
- KCR — Michael Wacha: 2026-08-17: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.64 ERA equivalent
Michael Wacha o5.5 Ks (+118)
Wacha has a 25.7 K% with a 24.1 Whiff% and a 1.4 BB% over his last 3, and the totals are climbing — 3, 6 and 10 strikeouts, the last of those over 8.0 innings on 103 pitches. Miami is the right lineup for it: 25.8 K% over their last 6 vs RHP with a 28.0 Whiff% behind it, both up from 22.3% and 24.3% over their last 12, so the swing-and-miss is real rather than a sequencing artifact. The outs line of 18.5 is the argument against — the market expects him back under six innings after that 103-pitch outing — but with almost no walks he faces 24 hitters in six innings and needs one strikeout per inning at a lineup missing better than a quarter of its swings. Plus money on a number his rate clears in an ordinary start is the value.
TBR @
TEX8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
TBR @
TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Shane McClanahan L
xERA3.97 (avg)ERA3.86 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%29.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%45.2 (poor)Barrel%9.5 (avg)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs70BB%5.3 (good)
TEX vs LHP
L6
wRC+157 (elite)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%26.0 (below)HH%42.6 (above)
L12
wRC+150 (elite)K%18.6 (above)Whiff%22.8 (avg)HH%46.0 (elite)
Cal Quantrill R
xERA2.60 (elite)ERA1.42 (elite)K%27.1 (good)Whiff%22.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%0.0 (elite)
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%14.5 (elite)Whiff%17.8 (elite)HH%33.9 (below)
L12
wRC+84 (below)K%16.7 (above)Whiff%19.2 (above)HH%32.7 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 2.66 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.3 IP/2g)
TEX
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 5.18 (below)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-125-1.5 (+138)O8.0 (-103)TEX+108+1.5 (-160)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-132-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (+110)TEX+106+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR4.5 (+114/+118)1.5 (-160/+124)TEX3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane McClanahan4.5 (-139 / +116)15.5 (+141 / -155)Cal Quantrill3.5 (-125 / +102)15.5 (-112 / -119)
Shane McClanahan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs
W5.28043234
W5.28043234Aug 22 '26@
L5.07454100
L5.07454100Aug 17 '26vs
W3.15734033
W3.15734033Jul 30 '26vs
W3.04930211
W3.04930211Jul 24 '26vs
W5.07132211
W5.07132211Cal Quantrill · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26@
L6.08884033
L6.08884033Aug 23 '26vs
W6.09666000
W6.09666000Aug 18 '26vs
W7.09154000
W7.09154000Aug 12 '26@
L5.08564311
L5.08564311Aug 8 '26vs
W1.0*1000000
W1.0*1000000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane McClanahan
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX3.03.00good3.00.02.0(1)
at TEX—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30 '26vs
W3.04930211
W3.04930211Cal Quantrill
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.01.78elite6.52.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28 '26@
W5.16972111
W5.16972111May 18 '25vs
W5.08562211
W5.08562211home starts6.50.00elite5.55.00.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23 '26vs
W6.09666000
W6.09666000Aug 18 '26vs
W7.09154000
W7.09154000Trends · TBR
- TBR are 2-1 vs TEX this season (3 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 4-1 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-4 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 6.4 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 2.8 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 3-2 to the over in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 1-2 vs TBR this season (3 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Cal Quantrill's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 3.2 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.6 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 2-3 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-2 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: Whiff% 29.4 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 21.1 shows
- TBR bullpen elevated (9.3 IP over 2g)
- TEX bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: 2026-08-17: 3 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.60 ERA equivalent
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-08
AI Analysis
Texas at 157 wRC+ over their last 6 vs LHP and 150 over their last 12 is the strongest offensive read on the card, but Tampa Bay's bullpen at a 2.66 xERA over their last 12 games absorbs it and the Rangers are already priced near even money with the team total sitting at 3.5. McClanahan's 4.5 strikeouts sits right at the 4.6 his 21.1 K% projects over the five innings his 15.5 outs line implies, and that outs number already reflects the 4.7 IP per start he has been going. Quantrill's 3.5 strikeouts asks for an over against a Rays lineup striking out just 14.5% over their last 6 vs RHP, and his 27.1 K% over his last 3 sits well above the 22.7 Whiff% supporting it, so neither side of his number is worth the price.
ATH @
SEA✓9:40 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
ATH @
SEA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jack Perkins R
xERA2.92 (elite)ERA1.32 (elite)K%26.3 (good)Whiff%29.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.7 (avg)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs13.7 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs75BB%17.5 (poor)
SEA vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%28.4 (poor)Whiff%23.1 (avg)HH%42.0 (above)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%26.3 (below)Whiff%24.1 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)
Kade Anderson L
xERA2.23 (elite)ERA4.50 (below)K%19.5 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs83BB%12.2 (below)
ATH vs LHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+88 (below)K%27.1 (below)Whiff%26.2 (below)HH%42.9 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 2.94 (elite)ERA 3.73 (good)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
SEA
xERA 4.70 (below)ERA 6.70 (poor)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+176+1.5 (-131)O7.5 (-105)SEA-205-1.5 (+110)U7.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+172+0.5 (+108)O4.5 (+116)SEA-200-0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-152)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH2.5 (-148/+120)1.5 (-105/-125)SEA4.5 (+106/-135)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJack Perkins5.5 (+109 / -130)15.5 (+130 / +124)Kade Anderson5.5 (-122 / +103)15.5 (-115 / -115)
Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26vs
L5.08054412
L5.08054412Aug 23 '26@
W5.0*9163513
W5.0*9163513Aug 18 '26@
L3.2*5341100
L3.2*5341100Aug 12 '26vs
L5.097212167
L5.097212167Aug 7 '26@
L3.07035355
L3.07035355Kade Anderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 29 '26@
L4.18533322
L4.18533322Aug 22 '26vs
W5.28155233
W5.28155233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kade Anderson
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH—
home starts5.25.19below5.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs
W5.28155233
W5.28155233Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-4 vs SEA this season (6 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 0-5 in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 0-4 in Jack Perkins's last 4 away starts.
- ATH average 3.2 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 2.2 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 1-4 to the over in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in Jack Perkins's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 4-2 vs ATH this season (6 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 1-1 in Kade Anderson's last 2 starts.
- SEA are 1-0 in Kade Anderson's last 1 home starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in Kade Anderson's last 2 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Kade Anderson's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 1-1 to the over in Kade Anderson's last 2 starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
62°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 90 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 5
- SEA offense: K% 28.4 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 23.1 supports
- ATH bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-23, 2026-08-18
- WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 90)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
Jack Perkins u15.5 Outs (+124)
Perkins has not completed more than five innings in any of his last three starts — 3.0 IP on 70 pitches, 5.0 IP on 97, and 5.0 IP on 80 — so 15 outs or fewer has been the outcome every time out. A 17.5 BB% over those last 3 is what caps him: he walked four in 5.0 innings against Baltimore on Aug 29 and his pitch count climbs faster than his innings do. Seattle's 28.4 K% over their last 6 vs RHP does give him a path to quick innings, but even his cleanest recent outing ended at exactly 15 outs. The market has this as a coin flip when his own recent workload says the fifth inning is his ceiling.
STL @
LAD✓10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumNeutral Conditions
STL @
LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Quinn Mathews L
xERA3.00 (good)ERA5.52 (poor)K%26.2 (good)Whiff%27.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs99BB%7.7 (avg)
LAD vs LHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%22.4 (avg)HH%29.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+95 (avg)K%23.5 (avg)Whiff%21.2 (avg)HH%29.7 (poor)
Tarik Skubal L
xERA2.48 (elite)ERA2.37 (elite)K%32.9 (elite)Whiff%30.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs99BB%4.0 (elite)
STL vs LHP
L6
wRC+150 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%16.9 (elite)HH%42.1 (above)
L12
wRC+144 (elite)K%23.1 (avg)Whiff%20.7 (above)HH%42.1 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.84 (below)ERA 7.38 (poor)2d stress Stressed (13.0 IP/2g)
LAD
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 3.21 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+246+1.5 (+110)O8.0 (-105)LAD-300-1.5 (-125)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+230+1.5 (-140)O3.5 (-146)LAD-290-1.5 (+108)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL2.5 (-125/-102)1.5 (+130/-166)LAD4.5 (-125/+105)2.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UQuinn Mathews4.5 (-108 / -112)15.5 (-102 / -130)Tarik Skubal8.5 (+124 / -157)18.5 (+120 / -145)
Quinn Mathews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26vs
W5.210275111
W5.210275111Aug 22 '26@
L5.099310177
L5.099310177Aug 17 '26@
W4.09572311
W4.09572311Aug 1 '26@
L5.09736322
L5.09736322Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 28 '26@
W6.08374011
W6.08374011Aug 22 '26vs
W7.0106115133
W7.0106115133Aug 16 '26vs
L6.010977212
L6.010977212Aug 10 '26vs
W5.09564233
W5.09564233Aug 4 '26@
L6.08564222
L6.08564222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.25.19below8.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 20 '25@
W5.29485133
W5.29485133home starts6.03.50good8.05.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 22 '26vs
W7.0106115133
W7.0106115133Aug 16 '26vs
L6.010977212
L6.010977212Aug 10 '26vs
W5.09564233
W5.09564233Trends · STL
- STL are 4-1 vs LAD this season (5 games).
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-3 in Quinn Mathews's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-3 in Quinn Mathews's last 4 away starts.
- STL average 2.0 runs/game in Quinn Mathews's last 5 starts.
- STL average 1.5 runs/game in Quinn Mathews's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-2 to the over in Quinn Mathews's last 4 starts.
- STL are 1-2 to the over in Quinn Mathews's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-4 vs STL this season (5 games).
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 3-2 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-1 in Tarik Skubal's last 3 home starts.
- LAD average 3.0 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 4.0 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 2-3 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-1 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
69°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- STL offense: K% 21.7 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 16.9 supports
- STL bullpen stressed (13.0 IP over 2g)
- LAD bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
- STL — Quinn Mathews: last start: 102 pitches over 5.2 IP
- STL — Quinn Mathews: 2026-08-22: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.99 ERA equivalent
- STL — Quinn Mathews: recent opponents high-K: CIN 26%, PIT 34%
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: PIT 34%, DET 32%
Tarik Skubal u8.5 Ks (-157)
Skubal's last three strikeout totals are 7, 11 and 7, and the 11 came against Pittsburgh at a 34% team K rate with Detroit at 32% behind it — his recent numbers were built on the two most strikeout-prone lineups he could draw. St. Louis is the opposite: 21.7 K% over their last 6 vs LHP with a 16.9 Whiff% that does not support even that, so the contact quality is there to hold the count down, and their 150 wRC+ over the last 6 vs LHP means traffic and longer innings rather than free outs. Over six innings against 24-25 hitters he projects around seven punchouts, and clearing 8.5 has happened once in his last three against far easier strikeout matchups. The juice buys a number that requires his best outing against the worst lineup he has faced for it.