MLB Game Overviews

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Taj Bradley R

xERA2.38 (elite)K%37.0 (elite)HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%7.3 (good)ERA1.89IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs99BB%6.9

CHC vs RHP

wRC+115 (above avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)

Matthew Boyd L

xERA5.28 (poor)K%16.0 (below avg)HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)ERA3.63IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs87BB%4.0

MIN vs LHP

wRC+132 (elite)K%30.3 (poor)HH%50.9 (elite)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIN+120+1.5 (-162)O11.0 (-105)CHC-142-1.5 (+140)U11.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIN+112+0.5 (-120)O6.5 (+106)CHC-140-0.5 (-108)U6.5 (-138)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UMINO5.5 (+112)U4.5 (+114)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)CHCO5.5 (-111)U5.5 (-115)O2.5 (-154)U2.5 (+120)

Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs W7.09966222

Jul 7vs W7.0101103011

Jul 1@ W5.097114311

Jun 26vs W7.09973322

Jun 20@ W5.09143222

Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12@ W6.19236144

Jul 7@ W6.09373200

Jun 30vs W5.07628033

Jun 25@ W4.27644400

May 3vs W6.09454122

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Matthew Boyd

IPERAKHBB

vs MIN—

home starts5.14.144.05.70.3(3)

Trends · MIN

• MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
• MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
• MIN are 5-0 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
• MIN are 3-2 in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.
• MIN average 8.0 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
• MIN average 7.4 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 away starts.

Trends · CHC

• CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
• CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
• CHC are 5-0 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
• CHC are 4-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.
• CHC average 6.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
• CHC average 6.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIN

xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.05

CHC

xERA 5.34 (poor)ERA 5.93

Weather · Hot, Windy

96°F, Wind 17 mph

Flags · 4

• CHC — Matthew Boyd: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
• CHC — Matthew Boyd: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
• CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.34 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
• WEATHER: wind: Out 17 mph — factor into total and HR expectations

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Davis Martin R

xERA5.89 (poor)K%8.5 (poor)HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA4.97IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs81BB%13.6

TOR vs RHP

wRC+75 (poor)K%17.8 (above avg)HH%31.0 (below avg)

Shane Bieber R

xERA7.41 (poor)K%16.4 (below avg)HH%54.4 (poor)Barrel%8.7 (avg)ERA7.07IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%14.9

CHW vs RHP

wRC+116 (above avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%43.5 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHW+114+1.5 (-187)O8.5 (-110)TOR-130-1.5 (+155)U8.5 (-106)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHW+110+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-122)TOR-135-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-106)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UCHWO3.5 (-132)U3.5 (+110)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)TORO4.5 (+106)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)

Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 8vs L4.08426255

Jul 2@ L3.17306522

Jun 27vs W5.18734100

Jun 21@ L6.07745311

Jun 16@ L3.18848399

Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10@ W4.29746322

Jul 4@ L4.08936377

Jun 28vs L5.19245422

Jun 23vs L3.27529044

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Davis Martin

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR6.00.006.04.02.0(1)

at TOR—

Shane Bieber

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW—

home starts4.45.413.06.32.0(3)

Trends · CHW

• CHW are 3-1 vs TOR this season (4 games).
• CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
• CHW are 1-4 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
• CHW are 1-4 in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.
• CHW average 2.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
• CHW average 4.8 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 away starts.

Trends · TOR

• TOR are 1-3 vs CHW this season (4 games).
• TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• TOR are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
• TOR are 1-3 in Shane Bieber's last 4 starts.
• TOR are 0-2 in Shane Bieber's last 2 home starts.
• TOR average 3.5 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 4 starts.
• TOR average 4.5 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 2 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

CHW

xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 2.32

TOR

xERA 3.19 (good)ERA 4.22

Weather · Hot, Windy

94°F, Wind 19 mph

Flags · 8

• CHW — Davis Martin: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
• TOR — Shane Bieber: HH% 54% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
• TOR — Shane Bieber: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
• CHW — Davis Martin: 2026-07-08: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
• CHW — Davis Martin: recent opponents high-K: CLE 27%, BOS 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
• TOR — Shane Bieber: 2026-07-04: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
• WEATHER: rain chance 46% — monitor for delays
• WEATHER: wind: Out 19 mph — factor into total and HR expectations

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Rhett Lowder R

xERA4.16 (avg)K%9.4 (poor)HH%26.1 (elite)Barrel%4.3 (elite)ERA1.29IP/gs7.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs35BB%15.6

COL vs RHP

wRC+124 (above avg)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%35.1 (avg)

Tomoyuki Sugano R

xERA4.14 (avg)K%12.7 (below avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%8.5 (avg)ERA9.00IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs89BB%4.2

CIN vs RHP

wRC+91 (below avg)K%28.0 (poor)HH%29.9 (poor)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCIN-102-1.5 (+146)O12.0 (-110)COL-115+1.5 (-170)U12.0 (-109)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCIN+100+0.5 (-132)O6.5 (-110)COL-120-0.5 (+102)U6.5 (-118)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UCINO5.5 (-132)U5.5 (+106)O3.5 (+120)U3.5 (-154)COLO5.5 (-125)U5.5 (+100)O3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-145)

Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs L2.0*3010200

Jul 8vs W2.0*3623011

Jul 4vs L3.0*4002300

Jun 30@ L4.282811166

Jun 24vs L5.210068133

Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 26@ L5.08528177

Jun 20vs W6.08554011

Jun 14@ W5.09728268

Jun 9vs W5.09336233

Jun 2@ W5.09655222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tomoyuki Sugano

IPERAKHBB

vs CIN5.10.002.04.03.0(1)

home starts5.33.383.05.71.3(3)

Trends · CIN

• CIN are 2-1 vs COL this season (3 games).
• CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
• CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
• CIN are 1-4 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
• CIN are 0-5 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
• CIN average 2.4 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
• CIN average 3.0 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.

Trends · COL

• COL are 1-2 vs CIN this season (3 games).
• COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
• COL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
• COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
• COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
• COL average 9.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
• COL average 4.6 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

CIN

xERA 2.31 (elite)ERA 3.02

COL

xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 2.14

Weather · Hot

95°F, Wind 13 mph

Flags · 5

• CIN — Rhett Lowder: small sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
• CIN — Rhett Lowder: BB% 16% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
• CIN — Rhett Lowder: 18 days since last start (2026-06-30) — may not be fully stretched out
• CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12, 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
• COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: 22 days since last start (2026-06-26) — may not be fully stretched out

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Sean Manaea L

xERA4.29 (avg)K%19.2 (avg)HH%42.3 (below avg)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)ERA5.09IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs98BB%5.5

PHI vs LHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%30.9 (poor)HH%29.2 (poor)

Jesus Luzardo L

xERA1.11 (elite)K%40.4 (elite)HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA0.64IP/gs7.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs96BB%3.9

NYM vs LHP

wRC+97 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)

Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9vs W7.09766123

Jul 4@ L5.010845136

Jun 29@ L5.29043222

Jun 24vs L3.08646234

Jun 18@ W5.19556123

Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9@ W7.096112200

Jul 4@ W6.09594011

Jun 28@ W5.09664311

Jun 23@ W6.2104135315

Jun 16vs W7.010695222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Sean Manaea

IPERAKHBB

vs PHI4.85.036.05.70.7(3)

at PHI5.05.355.05.51.0(2)

Jesus Luzardo

IPERAKHBB

vs NYM5.74.767.04.72.0(3)

home starts6.34.265.35.72.0(3)

Trends · NYM

• NYM are 3-4 vs PHI this season (7 games).
• NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
• NYM are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
• NYM are 1-2 in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.
• NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
• NYM average 3.3 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.

Trends · PHI

• PHI are 4-3 vs NYM this season (7 games).
• PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
• PHI are 5-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
• PHI are 3-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
• PHI average 6.8 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
• PHI average 6.2 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

NYM

xERA 5.67 (poor)ERA 9.132d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

PHI

xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 7.652d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Flags · 1

• NYM bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.67 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Dustin May R

xERA3.51 (good)K%25.5 (good)HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA6.75IP/gs3.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs66BB%12.8

ARI vs RHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)

Brandon Pfaadt R

xERA2.42 (elite)K%16.7 (below avg)HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%6.1 (good)ERA1.72IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs72BB%1.7

STL vs RHP

wRC+75 (poor)K%23.1 (avg)HH%40.6 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSTL-110-1.5 (+150)O9.0 (-114)ARI-105+1.5 (-170)U9.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSTL-115-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-144)ARI+100+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (+110)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 USTLO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)O2.5 (+110)U2.5 (-140)ARIO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)

Dustin May · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs L4.08442422

Jul 6vs L4.28174000

Jul 2@ W0.23415255

Jun 21@ W2.04426166

Jun 15vs W9.010191100

Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11@ W5.17726022

Jul 6@ W5.07264000

Jun 30vs W5.16623111

Jun 3vs L1.0*3713222

May 29@ L1.2*3133011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Dustin May

IPERAKHBB

vs ARI6.12.216.56.01.0(2)

at ARI6.22.905.07.01.0(1)

Brandon Pfaadt

IPERAKHBB

vs STL6.12.215.54.50.5(2)

home starts5.11.762.03.01.0(1)

Trends · STL

• STL are 1-3 vs ARI this season (4 games).
• STL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
• STL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
• STL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
• STL are 3-2 in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.
• STL average 6.4 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 starts.
• STL average 6.6 runs/game in Dustin May's last 5 away starts.

Trends · ARI

• ARI are 3-1 vs STL this season (4 games).
• ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
• ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
• ARI have won 4 straight.
• ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
• ARI are 3-0 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.
• ARI average 6.8 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
• ARI average 7.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

STL

xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.40

ARI

xERA 2.56 (elite)ERA 2.15

Flags · 5

• STL — Dustin May: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
• STL — Dustin May: avg 3.1 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
• STL — Dustin May: 2026-07-02: 5 ER in 0.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
• ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-03, 2026-05-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
• ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

MacKenzie Gore L

xERA3.07 (good)K%28.1 (elite)HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA8.36IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82BB%4.7

ATL vs LHP

wRC+83 (below avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%46.8 (elite)

Owen Murphy R

xERA2.64 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%77.8 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)ERA2.25IP/gs4.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs34BB%0.0

TEX vs RHP

wRC+88 (below avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTEX+180+1.5 (-120)O8.0 (-110)ATL-205-1.5 (+106)U8.0 (-106)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTEX+182+0.5 (+116)O4.5 (+100)ATL-235-0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-130)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UTEXO3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-140)O1.5 (+105)U1.5 (-135)ATLO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (-113)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)

MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs W4.06542111

Jul 8vs L5.09079177

Jul 1@ L5.09277155

Jun 25@ W7.09854133

Jun 20vs L6.09565211

Owen Murphy · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11@ L3.0*4730000

Jul 6vs L1.0*2011012

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

MacKenzie Gore

IPERAKHBB

vs ATL3.55.074.03.03.5(2)

at ATL2.018.003.04.04.0(1)

Trends · TEX

• TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
• TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
• TEX are 2-3 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
• TEX average 4.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
• TEX average 4.0 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.

Trends · ATL

• ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.

Bullpens · Last 12

TEX

xERA 3.92 (avg)ERA 5.06

ATL

xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 4.94

Weather · Hot

92°F, Wind 14 mph

Flags · 7

• TEX — MacKenzie Gore: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
• TEX — MacKenzie Gore: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
• ATL — Owen Murphy: small sample (4.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
• ATL — Owen Murphy: HH% 78% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
• TEX — MacKenzie Gore: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
• TEX — MacKenzie Gore: recent opponents high-K: CLE 29%, LAA 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
• ATL — Owen Murphy: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-11, 2026-07-06 — may affect pitch count or availability

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Trevor Rogers L

xERA3.97 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)ERA1.04IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs90BB%10.1

HOU vs LHP

wRC+57 (poor)K%24.0 (below avg)HH%26.9 (poor)

S. Arrighetti R

xERA7.55 (poor)K%20.6 (avg)HH%34.2 (good)Barrel%15.8 (poor)ERA11.77IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs87BB%19.1

BAL vs RHP

wRC+108 (avg)K%21.8 (avg)HH%43.4 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBAL-103-1.5 (+158)O8.5 (-120)HOU-112+1.5 (-178)U8.5 (+101)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBAL-106+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-140)HOU-115-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+108)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UBALO4.5 (+102)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)HOUO4.5 (+116)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)

Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9vs W6.08945211

Jul 3@ W5.09342500

Jun 26vs W6.18775011

Jun 20@ W7.09661200

Jun 14vs L6.08245222

S. Arrighetti · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 8@ L4.09427688

Jul 3vs L6.07342111

Jun 26@ L3.09375588

Jun 20vs L6.09086066

Jun 14@ L6.010178144

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Trevor Rogers

IPERAKHBB

vs HOU7.01.299.05.03.0(1)

at HOU—

S. Arrighetti

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL5.23.462.06.00.0(1)

home starts5.36.195.04.70.7(3)

Trends · BAL

• BAL are 2-2 vs HOU this season (4 games).
• BAL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
• BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
• BAL have won 4 straight.
• BAL are 4-1 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
• BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.
• BAL average 2.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
• BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 away starts.

Trends · HOU

• HOU are 2-2 vs BAL this season (4 games).
• HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
• HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
• HOU are 0-5 in S. Arrighetti's last 5 starts.
• HOU are 3-2 in S. Arrighetti's last 5 home starts.
• HOU average 0.8 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 5 starts.
• HOU average 4.4 runs/game in S. Arrighetti's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

BAL

xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 3.29

HOU

xERA 2.50 (elite)ERA 3.47

Weather · Hot

98°F, Wind 10 mph

Flags · 2

• HOU — S. Arrighetti: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
• HOU — S. Arrighetti: BB% 19% — command concerns, elevated walk rate

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Ian Seymour L

xERA3.55 (good)K%36.5 (elite)HH%37.1 (avg)Barrel%8.6 (avg)ERA5.52IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs85BB%6.3

BOS vs LHP

wRC+133 (elite)K%18.3 (above avg)HH%28.0 (poor)

Patrick Sandoval L

xERA3.29 (good)K%26.3 (good)HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA2.08IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs65BB%5.3

TBR vs LHP

wRC+101 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTBR+100-1.5 (+164)O9.0 (-103)BOS-116+1.5 (-190)U8.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTBR-115-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-132)BOS-106+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (+102)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UTBRO4.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)BOSO4.5 (+112)U4.5 (-130)O2.5 (+120)U2.5 (-154)

Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs L3.17836356

Jul 7vs W5.194125033

Jul 2@ W6.08383111

Jun 25vs W6.2*9070100

Jun 20vs L5.08147033

Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9@ W4.16555111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ian Seymour

IPERAKHBB

vs BOS4.02.255.01.01.0(1)

at BOS—

Trends · TBR

• TBR are 5-2 vs BOS this season (7 games).
• TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
• TBR are 3-2 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
• TBR are 1-0 in Ian Seymour's last 1 away starts.
• TBR average 3.8 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
• TBR average 5.0 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 1 away starts.

Trends · BOS

• BOS are 2-5 vs TBR this season (7 games).
• BOS are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
• BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
• BOS have won 9 straight.
• BOS are 1-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 1 starts.
• BOS average 2.0 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 1 starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

TBR

xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.38

BOS

xERA 2.91 (elite)ERA 3.12

Weather · Rainy, Hot, Windy

90°F, Wind 19 mph

· Rain possible (61%)

Flags · 10

• BOS — Patrick Sandoval: small sample (4.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
• BOS — Patrick Sandoval: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
• TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-25, 2026-06-14 — may affect pitch count or availability
• TBR — Ian Seymour: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
• TBR — Ian Seymour: 2026-07-12: 5 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
• TBR — Ian Seymour: low-K outing 2026-07-12 (3 Ks vs avg 7.7) — stuff was flat that day
• TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: NYY 33%, SEA 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
• BOS — Patrick Sandoval: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
• WEATHER: rain risk 61% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
• WEATHER: wind: Out 19 mph — factor into total and HR expectations

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Braxton Ashcraft R

xERA5.41 (poor)K%30.4 (elite)HH%55.8 (poor)Barrel%14.0 (below avg)ERA5.94IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs96BB%7.2

CLE vs RHP

wRC+99 (avg)K%26.7 (below avg)HH%35.2 (avg)

Joey Cantillo L

xERA2.67 (elite)K%28.6 (elite)HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA1.80IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs91BB%14.3

PIT vs LHP

wRC+145 (elite)K%22.0 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPIT+110+1.5 (-199)O7.5 (-110)CLE-126-1.5 (+180)U7.5 (-106)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPIT+105+0.5 (-148)O3.5 (-140)CLE-130-0.5 (+114)U3.5 (+108)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UPITO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-110)O1.5 (-120)U1.5 (-110)CLEO3.5 (-122)U3.5 (+105)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)

Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11vs W5.09865255

Jul 4@ W5.29476211

Jun 29@ W6.09785155

Jun 24vs W6.086105011

Jun 17@ W6.09374312

Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12@ W5.08596211

Jul 7@ L5.09476302

Jul 1vs W5.09343522

Jun 26vs L6.09092211

Jun 20@ W8.09894111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Joey Cantillo

IPERAKHBB

vs PIT—

home starts5.32.255.73.72.3(3)

Trends · PIT

• PIT are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
• PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
• PIT are 4-1 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
• PIT are 4-1 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
• PIT average 7.2 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
• PIT average 7.8 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.

Trends · CLE

• CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
• CLE are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
• CLE have won 4 straight.
• CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
• CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
• CLE average 4.8 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
• CLE average 4.6 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

PIT

xERA 5.54 (poor)ERA 4.56

CLE

xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 2.47

Weather · Rainy, Hot, Windy

94°F, Wind 29 mph

· Rain possible (63%)

Flags · 6

• PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
• PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
• CLE — Joey Cantillo: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
• PIT bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.54 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
• WEATHER: rain risk 63% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
• WEATHER: wind: Out 29 mph — factor into total and HR expectations

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Griffin Canning R

xERA2.87 (elite)K%21.4 (avg)HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.6 (elite)ERA3.46IP/gs6.5 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs74BB%7.1

KCR vs RHP

wRC+112 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%42.8 (above avg)

Stephen Kolek R

xERA4.69 (below avg)K%7.7 (poor)HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%6.8 (good)ERA9.82IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs66BB%5.8

SDP vs RHP

wRC+106 (avg)K%22.6 (avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSDP-120-1.5 (+135)O10.5 (-105)KCR+102+1.5 (-152)U10.0 (-104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSDP-118-0.5 (+112)O5.5 (-110)KCR-106+0.5 (-146)U5.5 (-118)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 USDPO5.5 (+106)U5.5 (-135)O2.5 (-115)U2.5 (-115)KCRO4.5 (-113)U4.5 (+100)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)

Griffin Canning · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 9vs L4.27457022

Jul 4@ L4.0*7342211

Jun 29@ L4.17535222

Jun 23vs W0.2*4024144

Jun 17@ W4.1*7724311

Stephen Kolek · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 2vs L2.05104133

Jun 21vs L1.24909199

Jun 14vs W7.19745100

Jun 9vs W5.08638112

Jun 3@ W7.09686222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Stephen Kolek

IPERAKHBB

vs SDP—

home starts3.410.491.36.01.0(3)

Trends · SDP

• SDP are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• SDP are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
• SDP are 1-4 in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
• SDP are 0-4 in Griffin Canning's last 4 away starts.
• SDP average 2.2 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 5 starts.
• SDP average 2.0 runs/game in Griffin Canning's last 4 away starts.

Trends · KCR

• KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
• KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
• KCR have lost 5 straight.
• KCR are 3-2 in Stephen Kolek's last 5 starts.
• KCR are 3-2 in Stephen Kolek's last 5 home starts.
• KCR average 5.2 runs/game in Stephen Kolek's last 5 starts.
• KCR average 5.2 runs/game in Stephen Kolek's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

SDP

xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 6.33

KCR

xERA 4.98 (below avg)ERA 4.74

Weather · Hot

95°F, Wind 9 mph

Flags · 6

• KCR — Stephen Kolek: avg 3.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
• SDP — Griffin Canning: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-04, 2026-06-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
• SDP — Griffin Canning: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
• SDP — Griffin Canning: 2026-06-12: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
• KCR — Stephen Kolek: 16 days since last start (2026-07-02) — may not be fully stretched out
• KCR — Stephen Kolek: last start: 51 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Max Meyer R

xERA3.13 (good)K%20.0 (avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)ERA1.50IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs82BB%5.7

MIL vs RHP

wRC+103 (avg)K%21.6 (avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)

Shane Drohan L

xERA3.18 (good)K%20.3 (avg)HH%43.6 (below avg)Barrel%12.7 (below avg)ERA3.00IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs82BB%4.0

MIA vs LHP

wRC+134 (elite)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIA+128+1.5 (-168)O8.0 (-114)MIL-150-1.5 (+142)U8.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIA+124+0.5 (-130)O4.5 (-102)MIL-145-0.5 (+100)U4.5 (-128)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UMIAO3.5 (-113)U3.5 (-110)O1.5 (-130)U1.5 (+100)MILO4.5 (+122)U4.5 (-135)O2.5 (+114)U2.5 (-145)

Max Meyer · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 7vs W5.08044222

Jul 1@ L6.07856015

Jun 26@ W7.08952200

Jun 20vs W5.09877222

Jun 14@ W6.010596311

Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11@ L6.18365033

Jul 6@ W6.08526213

Jul 1vs W5.27876122

Jun 24@ W4.19855300

Jun 18vs L5.09133311

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Shane Drohan

IPERAKHBB

vs MIA—

home starts5.14.145.75.71.3(3)

Trends · MIA

• MIA are 1-2 vs MIL this season (3 games).
• MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
• MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
• MIA are 4-1 in Max Meyer's last 5 starts.
• MIA are 3-2 in Max Meyer's last 5 away starts.
• MIA average 4.6 runs/game in Max Meyer's last 5 starts.
• MIA average 4.4 runs/game in Max Meyer's last 5 away starts.

Trends · MIL

• MIL are 2-1 vs MIA this season (3 games).
• MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
• MIL have lost 4 straight.
• MIL are 3-2 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
• MIL are 2-2 in Shane Drohan's last 4 home starts.
• MIL average 3.6 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
• MIL average 7.5 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 4 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

MIA

xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 6.15

MIL

xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.72

Weather · Hot

93°F, Wind 15 mph

Flags · 3

• MIL — Shane Drohan: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
• MIA — Max Meyer: 11 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
• MIL — Shane Drohan: low-K outing 2026-07-06 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Emmet Sheehan R

xERA2.87 (elite)K%28.3 (elite)HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)ERA2.45IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs94BB%10.0

NYY vs RHP

wRC+114 (avg)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%45.2 (elite)

Ryan Weathers L

xERA3.23 (good)K%26.8 (good)HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)ERA5.73IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs78BB%5.4

LAD vs LHP

wRC+149 (elite)K%17.2 (above avg)HH%44.4 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalLAD-108-1.5 (+150)O9.0 (-114)NYY-108+1.5 (-171)U9.0 (-102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalLAD-104+0.5 (-146)O5.5 (+112)NYY-115-0.5 (+112)U5.5 (-146)

Team Totals

OverUnderLADO4.5 (-108)U4.5 (-110)NYYO4.5 (+104)U4.5 (-125)

Emmet Sheehan · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs L5.110173123

Jul 5vs L4.19653311

Jun 28@ W5.08452211

Jun 21vs L3.18248366

Jun 14@ L5.08584133

Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10@ W5.19166011

Jul 5vs L4.08866244

Jun 29vs L1.25537125

Jun 24@ W6.09766212

Jun 18vs L6.18883111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ryan Weathers

IPERAKHBB

vs LAD—

home starts3.85.585.75.31.3(3)

Trends · LAD

• LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
• LAD are 1-4 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
• LAD are 2-3 in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 away starts.
• LAD average 2.8 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 starts.
• LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Emmet Sheehan's last 5 away starts.

Trends · NYY

• NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
• NYY are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
• NYY have won 4 straight.
• NYY are 2-3 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
• NYY are 1-4 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
• NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
• NYY average 2.0 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

LAD

xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 4.25

NYY

xERA 2.90 (elite)ERA 2.22

Weather · Rainy, Windy

83°F, Wind 15 mph

· Rain possible (75%)

Flags · 5

• NYY — Ryan Weathers: avg 3.7 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
• LAD — Emmet Sheehan: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
• NYY — Ryan Weathers: recent opponents high-K: MIN 30%, WSN 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
• WEATHER: rain risk 75% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
• WEATHER: wind: Out 15 mph — factor into total and HR expectations

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Logan Webb R

xERA4.88 (below avg)K%13.3 (below avg)HH%32.2 (good)Barrel%5.1 (good)ERA6.35IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs91BB%8.0

SEA vs RHP

wRC+77 (poor)K%24.9 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)

Bryan Woo R

xERA4.15 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%5.8 (good)ERA5.87IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs93BB%5.7

SFG vs RHP

wRC+112 (avg)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%36.1 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSFG+138+1.5 (-167)O7.0 (-120)SEA-155-1.5 (+150)U7.0 (+102)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSFG+130+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-138)SEA-150-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (+106)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 USFGO3.5 (+114)U3.5 (-145)O1.5 (-110)U1.5 (-120)SEAO3.5 (-130)U3.5 (+105)O2.5 (+124)U2.5 (-160)

Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 8vs L7.010625255

Jul 3@ L3.076211277

Jun 27vs W7.09261200

Jun 21@ L8.010355122

Jun 14vs W8.010677001

Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 7@ L5.08759134

Jun 30vs W6.110654122

Jun 24@ L4.08646255

Jun 18vs W7.08993100

Jun 11@ L5.08247177

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Bryan Woo

IPERAKHBB

vs SFG6.06.006.05.01.0(1)

home starts6.70.907.73.00.7(3)

Trends · SFG

• SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
• SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
• SFG are 2-3 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
• SFG are 1-4 in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
• SFG average 2.8 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
• SFG average 2.6 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.

Trends · SEA

• SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
• SEA are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
• SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
• SEA are 5-0 in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.
• SEA average 4.4 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
• SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

SFG

xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 5.71

SEA

xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 2.70

Flags · 5

• SFG — Logan Webb: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
• SFG — Logan Webb: 2026-07-03: 7 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 21) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
• SFG — Logan Webb: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, TOR 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
• SEA — Bryan Woo: 11 days since last start (2026-07-07) — may not be fully stretched out
• SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-06-24: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Zack Littell R

xERA4.54 (below avg)K%19.6 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below avg)ERA2.40IP/gs15.0 IP/gsH/gs12.0PC/gs79BB%5.4

ATH vs RHP

wRC+58 (poor)K%29.1 (poor)HH%44.1 (above avg)

J.T. Ginn R

xERA4.11 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%25.6 (elite)Barrel%10.3 (avg)ERA6.91IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs84BB%15.2

WSN vs RHP

wRC+149 (elite)K%15.9 (elite)HH%42.8 (above avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalWSN-108-1.5 (+146)O10.0 (-110)ATH-105+1.5 (-170)U10.0 (-107)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalWSN-118-0.5 (+110)O5.5 (+100)ATH-105+0.5 (-144)U5.5 (-130)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UWSNO4.5 (-140)U4.5 (+112)O2.5 (-110)U2.5 (-120)ATHO4.5 (-120)U4.5 (-105)O2.5 (+105)U2.5 (-135)

Zack Littell · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10vs L4.0*6955011

Jul 4vs L6.0*8734111

Jun 28@ W5.08233222

Jun 23vs L4.0*5955022

Jun 17vs L5.09927244

J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12@ L4.18676388

Jul 7@ L4.06142222

Jul 1vs W6.010443511

Jun 26@ W6.08958133

Jun 20vs L5.19856334

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

J.T. Ginn

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN—

home starts5.72.114.05.03.3(3)

Trends · WSN

• WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
• WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
• WSN are 3-2 in Zack Littell's last 5 starts.
• WSN are 3-1 in Zack Littell's last 4 away starts.
• WSN average 4.0 runs/game in Zack Littell's last 5 starts.
• WSN average 5.0 runs/game in Zack Littell's last 4 away starts.

Trends · ATH

• ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
• ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
• ATH have lost 9 straight.
• ATH are 2-3 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
• ATH are 4-1 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
• ATH average 3.8 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
• ATH average 6.2 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

WSN

xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 5.43

ATH

xERA 5.42 (poor)ERA 6.58

Weather · Hot

92°F, Wind 11 mph

Flags · 5

• ATH — J.T. Ginn: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
• ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.42 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
• WSN — Zack Littell: 20 days since last start (2026-06-28) — may not be fully stretched out
• WSN — Zack Littell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-10, 2026-07-04 — may affect pitch count or availability
• ATH — J.T. Ginn: 2026-07-12: 8 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Tarik Skubal L

xERA2.01 (elite)K%36.5 (elite)HH%17.1 (elite)Barrel%5.7 (good)ERA2.25IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs92BB%4.8

LAA vs LHP

wRC+121 (above avg)K%29.8 (poor)HH%42.9 (above avg)

G. Rodriguez R

xERA5.70 (poor)K%11.7 (poor)HH%52.2 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)ERA4.85IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs73BB%8.3

DET vs RHP

wRC+87 (below avg)K%25.9 (below avg)HH%35.5 (avg)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalDET-110-1.5 (+150)O8.5 (-104)LAA-104+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalDET-112+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-102)LAA-112-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-128)

Team Totals

OverUnderF5 OF5 UDETO4.5 (+114)U4.5 (-142)O1.5 (-160)U1.5 (+124)LAAO3.5 (-135)U3.5 (+112)O1.5 (-154)U1.5 (+120)

Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 12vs L5.09354122

Jul 7vs W5.09695211

Jun 30@ W6.08791012

Jun 24vs L6.08594044

Jun 19vs W5.29487133

G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 10@ W5.17906133

Jun 14vs L2.14713222

Jun 8vs L5.19266223

Jun 2vs L3.29137378

May 28@ W5.08852211

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tarik Skubal

IPERAKHBB

vs LAA5.14.417.05.01.0(2)

at LAA6.01.508.04.00.0(1)

G. Rodriguez

IPERAKHBB

vs DET5.01.805.02.02.0(1)

home starts3.59.523.35.32.3(3)

Trends · DET

• DET are 1-2 vs LAA this season (3 games).
• DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
• DET are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
• DET are 3-2 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
• DET are 2-3 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 away starts.
• DET average 4.2 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
• DET average 3.8 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 away starts.

Trends · LAA

• LAA are 2-1 vs DET this season (3 games).
• LAA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
• LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
• LAA are 2-3 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
• LAA are 1-4 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
• LAA average 4.0 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
• LAA average 3.8 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.

Bullpens · Last 12

DET

xERA 2.47 (elite)ERA 3.52

LAA

xERA 4.16 (avg)ERA 5.61

Weather

83°F, Wind 9 mph

Flags · 4

• LAA — G. Rodriguez: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
• DET — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: NYY 33%, PHI 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
• LAA — G. Rodriguez: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
• LAA — G. Rodriguez: 2026-06-14: 2 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA